Addressing one of his pitchers in a mid-month Zoom session, Colorado Rockies manager Bud Black said that his velocity was “good for this point of the spring.” (That may not be an exact quote, but it’s close.) The statement prompted me to ask a question that elicited an expansive response. In a nutshell, I wanted to know how often Black is seeing guys who, having trained for velocity over the offseason, come into camp already throwing gas. Moreover, does he find that concerning?

“I could get longwinded here,” Black began. “As you can imagine, when we talk about velocity and what pitchers have done, really over the last five years… maybe it started about 10 years ago with programs to truly increase velocity. We’ve seen that over the years, with many pitchers pumping their velocity.

“Coming into camp, I think there are certain pitchers, on certain clubs, that are trying to make the team. They have to show their stuff right away, from Day One, whether it’s in bullpens, batting-practice games, or B-games, trying to impress coaching staffs [and] front offices of their ability. They want to show that they can make a big-league roster. Other guys have trained in the offseason, and they want to see if those training methods have resulted in increased velocity in games. They might turn it loose right from the get-go. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, we analyzed the league’s rotations from bottom to top with the help of Paul Sporer and Ben Clemens. Today, we turn our attention to the bullpens, starting with those toward the back of the rankings.

There are some positions for which a cleaner, wider gap exists between the top teams and the bottom, where we can more definitively say that some teams are better than others. For instance, it’s clear the best center field situation belongs to the Angels because of Mike Trout, and that the Mets belong at or near the top of the shortstop hierarchy because of Francisco Lindor. Relief pitching is not one of these positions. Sure, we have the bullpens ranked, and you can see their statistical projections above and below, but be sure also to notice the margins here and recall that projections are even messier this year because we’re coming off of a shortened season. Plus, relievers are generally volatile. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Meg getting vaccinated, the social dynamics of looser restrictions for vaccinated MLB players, an update on the infamous Tom & Jerry baseball scene, another baseball term named after a player, Willians Astudillo making the Twins, a few other players not making their respective teams, politicians’ performative fandom, Randy Dobnak and the future of contract extensions, and FanGraphs’ spring membership drive, then preview the 2021 Yankees (41:14) with Lindsey Adler of the The Athletic and the 2021 Pirates (1:19:54) with Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Audio intro: Danko/Fjeld/Andersen, "One More Shot"
Audio interstitial 1: Clap Your Hands Say Yeah, "Yankee Go Home"
Audio interstitial 2: The Lemonheads, "Pittsburgh"
Audio outro: Golden Earring, "One Shot Away From Paradise"

Link to Lindsey on vaccinations and protocols
Link to Tom & Jerry baseball scene
Link to Hader tweets and 2018 ASG
Link to Laurila’s latest Sunday Notes
Link to video of Willians out at second
Link to Willians styling his homer
Link to Yang tweets
Link to reversible Mets/Yankees mask
Link to Tony Wolfe on the Dobnak extension
Link to Sam on contract extensions
Link to FanGraphs’ new contributors
Link to FanGraphs spring membership drive
Link to Travis on the “elbow spiral”
Link to Lindsey on the pitching workshop
Link to story on Kratz and García
Link to Brault’s showtunes album
Link to Ben on Keller’s 2020
Link to Jason’s interview with Nutting

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Alderson Broaddus University carries an enrollment of fewer than 1,000 undergraduate students and sits in a town — Philippi, West Virginia — with a population just under 3,000 people. Its baseball team plays in the NCAA’s Division II and has produced just two players who were drafted by MLB teams, neither of whom ever actually played in the big leagues. In fact, Alderson Broaddus had never claimed a single major leaguer before Randy Dobnak was called up by the Twins in 2019. Two years before that, he had been playing in a four-team independent league in Michigan, assuming he’d give up baseball for good at the end of the season. After he got to the minors, he drove for rideshare services to make extra money. Even after his first full season in the Twins’ rotation, the team went out and signed two starting pitchers and bumped him to the bullpen. Dobnak’s baseball career has been non-stop uncertainty.

On Sunday, that finally came to an end, as the 26-year-old righty signed a five-year contract extension worth $9.25 million guaranteed and with a potential value of $29.75 million over eight years, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan. The deal offers Minnesota a good deal of flexibility and grants the pitcher a nice guarantee a couple of years before arbitration would have.

Right-hander Randy Dobnak and the Minnesota Twins are in agreement on a five-year, $9.25 million contract extension with three club options, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. The deal can max out at $29.75 million with the options and can grow with escalators.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 28, 2021

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale provided more details Monday morning.

The breakdown of pitcher/former Uber driver/Randy Dobnak's 5-year, $9.25M contract with the #Twins:
2021: $700,000
2022: $800,000
2023: $1.5M
2024: $2.25M
2025: $3M
2026: $6M Club option or $1M buyout
2027: $7M club option or $100K buyout
2028: $8.5M club option or $100K buyout

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) March 29, 2021

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier today, Paul Sporer assessed the game’s weaker rotations. Now, Ben Clemens turns his attention to the aces.

The top of the NL West is also the top of our starting pitching rankings. The Padres lost deadline acquisition Mike Clevinger before the postseason even ended, but they recovered by adding three marquee pitchers via trade. The Dodgers countered by adding Trevor Bauer in free agency, and it’s no surprise that those two teams sit atop this list. The New York teams have their aces, the Nationals have their big three, and plenty of other squads mix depth with upside, but none of them could quite match the two California teams’ projections.

That’s not to say that no one else can run out a string of aces. The Yankees have injury issues, but they’ll be able to line up Cy Young winners on consecutive nights. The Mets have Noah Syndergaard waiting in the wings, and the Nationals won a World Series in exactly that manner only two years ago. Pitchers are nastier than ever, and this list is a testament to that fact: there are interesting arms and potential aces on every team in the top 15. That makes it harder than ever to reach the top of our list, but it’s no shade to the teams further down; they’re good, but the Padres and Dodgers are better. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier today, Meg Rowley closed out the position players with an examination of the game’s designated hitters. Now we turn our attention to pitching. First up? Paul Sporer on the bottom half the league’s rotations.

The American League is firmly projected to have worse starting pitching than the National League, with nine of the 15 lowest-ranked teams AL squads and a deficit of 20 projected WAR. This group contains four legitimate playoff contenders in the AL, including the 2020 pennant-winning Rays. In fact, the Rays are one of three 2020 division winners on this list. Two of my favorite breakout rotations are also in the bottom half; I think at least one of them will break into the top half by season’s end. For instance, the Tigers’ trio of mega prospects could push them well beyond their projections if things coalesce quickly for them. Which rotation do you have exceeding expectations from this list? Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, the FanGraphs staff took you through most of the league’s position players. Now, before we turn our attention to pitching, Meg Rowley examines the state of the designated hitter.

If these rankings prove anything, it’s just how rare it is for teams to have a truly designated designated hitter anymore. Some still look to a single bopper, and many of those clubs are at the top of these rankings. The Astros, Yankees, and Twins still figure prominently; Yordan Alvarez, Giancarlo Stanton, and Nelson Cruz will do that for you. But for about half of the squads here, DH plate appearances are a group project, with the position often serving as a means of giving otherwise-capable fielders a day off.

It’s not totally old hat in 2021. Interesting young guys like Andrew Vaughn and Ty France could outperform their modest projections, and Shohei Ohtani is his own wild card. Still, with three clubs projected in the red and several more clustered around 1 to 1.5 wins, the DH bats have swooned. Perhaps a universal DH will shake things up, but I suspect we’ll see more of the same when the NL finally puts pitcher hitting to bed — a collection of good-hitting catchers, erstwhile first basemen, outfielders who need a breather, aging vets, and a few elite bats carrying the load. Read the rest of this entry »

In January, we put out an open call for contributing writers. The response we received was overwhelming. We are very grateful that so many smart, passionate baseball writers wanted to be a part of what we do here. It made for some really difficult decisions (and a rather long hiring process), but we are very excited to welcome some talented new voices to our ranks.

A quick note to those who applied but weren’t hired: please keep writing. A number of people who have worked for the site weren’t hired on their first go, but kept getting reps elsewhere on their way to making us regret having passed them by initially. Just because there wasn’t a home for you at FanGraphs this time around doesn’t mean that there won’t be one later, and in the meantime, public baseball analysis will be made better by your good words and good work.

And so, without further ado, allow me to introduce the writers whose work will soon be debuting here at the site. Read the rest of this entry »