Building upon a suite of experimental rule changes for the affiliated minor leagues that Major League Baseball announced in March, the independent Atlantic League has agreed to implement a couple of radical changes to the rulebook this season as well, one involving the pitching distance and the other the designated hitter rule. Via MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince, the eight-team league will increase the pitching distance by a foot for the second half of its 120-game season, and will implement a “Double Hook” designated hitter rule, in which a team loses its DH spot after its starting pitcher is removed.

Like several of the experimental rules MLB announced in March — larger base sizes in Triple-A, anti-shift rules in Double-A, a step-off rule in High-A, an electronic strike zone in the Low-A Southeast League, a pitch timer in the Low-A West League, and pickoff limits in all three Low-A leagues, all of which Brendan Gawlowski and Kevin Goldstein discussed here — these changes are a chance to examine the real-world effects of implementing rules that have been discussed in recent years as ways to liven up a game that has become increasingly geared towards home runs and strikeouts. The pitching distance change is an effort to counter the trends of higher pitch velocity, higher strikeout rates, and fewer balls in play that have reduced the level of action and — to the eyes of many — the level of entertainment as well, the latter despite the incredible athleticism of the players involved. The DH rule change is an effort to counter the trend of decreased workloads of starting pitchers and the corresponding increased reliance upon bullpens, which have stoked the velocity and strikeout trends throughy a steady stream of relievers throwing an inning at a time at maximum effort.

This isn’t the first time MLB has gone to the Atlantic League to test out radical ideas; instead, it’s the latest stage of a three-year agreement put into place in 2019, allowing MLB to test new rules and equipment in the country’s top independent league. The three-batter rule that was introduced at the major league level last year was first tried in the Atlantic League in 2019. That same year, the league became the first to implement an electronic strike zone, and debuted larger bases and an anti-shift rule. All of those changes are now being subjected to further testing in affiliated ball, though the shift rule has taken a different form.

The Atlantic League planned to introduce a 62’6″ pitching distance — a two-foot move, twice the distance of this year change — in the middle of the 2019 season, but that plan was greeted with a chilly reception, with some pitchers threatening to leave the league. The plan was soon delayed until the second half of the 2020 season, which itself was scrapped entirely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Read the rest of this entry »

To the surprise of no one, the Dodgers are good. They lead all of major league baseball with a 10-2 record. They’ve outscored their opponents by 32 runs. Barring catastrophic injuries or a long run of bad luck, they seem poised to end the season as one of the league’s winningest teams.

You may be wondering where I’m going with this. It’s to introduce the idea that good teams are good by design. In a game whose goal is to maximize runs scored and minimize runs allowed, their hitters launch dingers, their pitchers compile strikeouts, and numerous depth players allow them to deal with injuries. But today, I want to focus on a single characteristic: plate discipline. As of writing, the Dodgers have the lowest in O-Swing% in the league. They’re also second in Z-Contact%, behind only the Astros. Laying off bad pitches, making contact with hittable ones – that seems like a recipe for success. And currently, no Dodger hitter is more emblematic of this approach than Max Muncy.

We haven’t written much about the first baseman here at FanGraphs. One reason might be that he isn’t the flashiest athlete – like Trout, he achieves greatness through consistent production at the plate. Theatrics are kept to a minimum, save for when he feuded with Madison Bumgarner. But another, more relevant reason might be that Muncy had remained true to himself since 2018, his breakout year. Sure, his wRC+ plummeted in 2020, but he sported an uncharacteristically low BABIP in one of baseball’s weirdest seasons. Besides that quirk, nothing much had changed. He drew his share of walks; he hit for power.

That is, until now. Somehow, someway, Muncy has become an even more extreme version of his patient, slugging self. His O-Swing rate of 12.5% is the lowest among all hitters, which is also the lowest of his career. But wait, that’s based on 12 games! How do you know this isn’t some small-sample blip? I wondered about that too, but looking at his rolling O-Swing% tells a different story, one which began in 2019:

Read the rest of this entry »

On his 110th pitch of the night, Carlos Rodón hit 99 mph on the radar gun. It was a wasted pitch, a ball that evened the count to Jordan Luplow at 2-2. Four pitches later, Rodón slowed it down, dropping in a changeup that Luplow rolled harmlessly to third base. Yoán Moncada fielded it cleanly and fired to first for the last out of the game. Rodón had thrown a no-hitter, the first of his career.

Don’t worry, we’ll get to that momentous event. I want to talk about that fastball first, though, because it’s also remarkable. That pitch was the fastest pitch a White Sox starter has thrown this year — tied, actually, with a Dylan Cease offering. Cease is a flame-throwing 25-year-old with a 70 fastball grade — a plus-plus pitch that anchors his entire game. Rodón hadn’t crested 93 mph in average fastball velocity since 2017. He pitched only 7.2 innings last year, and hasn’t topped 150 since 2016. In an increasingly young man’s game, Rodón seemed somehow past his prime at only 28.

In last year’s playoffs, he made the roster as an afterthought. He faced three batters, as a last resort in the team’s disastrous playoff exit — all three reached, the third on an intentional pass that fulfilled the three-batter minimum, and it would hardly have been a surprise if that was his last pitch in black and white. In a money-saving move, the Sox didn’t tender him a contract after the season.

He signed a one-year deal in February to return to the team, but his rotation spot was anything but guaranteed; the team held a more-or-less open competition for its fourth and fifth starter spots this spring. An offseason workout regimen and some rare but welcome good health helped him secure a spot, and a successful first start against the Mariners — 95 pitches and nine strikeouts in five scoreless innings — cemented it.

That brings us back to Wednesday night. After an uneventful top of the first, the White Sox offense did their best to remove all drama from the game. They pounced on an ineffective Zach Plesac, chasing him from the game after seven hits and six runs. Rodón, whose first fastball of the night left his hand at 91.1 mph, sat in the dugout and watched. Read the rest of this entry »

With our FanGraphs merchandise inventory dwindling, we’re once again taking pre-orders! Pre-orders will be open until May 1, and all orders will start shipping May 21.

FanGraphs hats, hoodies, and the “Dark Gray FanGraphs T-Shirt” are available for pre-order along with two new shirts designed for us by new site contributor Luke Hooper. Read the rest of this entry »

Back in 2015, FanGraphs ran the first two pieces in what was intended to be a three-part series examining baseball’s antitrust exemption. The first piece in the series looked at the historical evolution of the exemption, and in particular the U.S. Supreme Court’s evolving justification for baseball’s unusual antitrust immunity. The second piece then examined the various ways in which subsequent lower courts have applied and interpreted the scope of the exemption.

Then, as is so often the case, life got in the way. So the third and final installment of the series was never completed.

But with Wednesday’s news that several Republican senators were introducing legislation to strip MLB of its antitrust exemption – in response to the league’s decision to move this summer’s All-Star Game from Atlanta, following the recent passage of Georgia’s controversial voting bill – MLB’s unique status under the Sherman Antitrust Act is once again in the news.

While the latest effort to repeal the exemption faces uncertain odds of success, the proposed legislation nevertheless inspires us to consider an important question: What is the practical effect of MLB’s antitrust exemption, anyway?

Indeed, many baseball fans are often quick to blame the sport’s antitrust exemption whenever MLB does something they disagree with. If only baseball’s antitrust exemption were repealed, these fans contend, then MLB would be forced to [fill in the blank]. Lower its ticket prices. Compete with a rival league. Expand into new markets. Change its television blackout policy. Read the rest of this entry »

Corbin Burnes was still flying below the radar when he was featured here at FanGraphs in June 2017. He’d come into the season ranked No. 18 on our Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect list, and Baseball America was even less bullish, slotting him 24th on their own. When I talked to him for the article, the 2016 fourth-round pick out of St. Mary’s College had yet to throw a pitch above the A-ball level.

He’s not under the radar anymore. Burnes broke out in last year’s pandemic-shortened season, and two weeks into the current campaign he’s the hottest pitcher on the planet. Over his first three starts, the 26-year-old right-hander has allowed four hits and one run in 18-and-a-third innings. Moreover, he has 30 strikeouts and has yet to issue a free pass. In a nutshell, hitters have been helpless against his five-pitch mix.

Burnes has much the same mindset as four years ago. He told me at the time that he considered himself a power pitcher, and that his M.O. was missing bats. Each time he took the mound, it was with the belief that he was better than the person standing in the batter’s box. He was out there to dominate.

Which isn’t to say that nothing has changed. Burnes had a four-seamer with natural cut when we first spoke, and now he’s sans the four, and in possession of baseball’s best cutter.

I asked Brewers pitching coach Chris Hook about the righty’s meteoric rise. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the unanticipated charms of podcast faves Willians Astudillo and Shohei Ohtani, Trevor Bauer’s (and the league’s) spin rates increasing despite MLB’s threatened foreign substance crackdown, the confounding behavior of the new, supposedly deadened baseball, and the news that the mound will be moved back and the “double hook” DH will be tested in the Atlantic League, follow up on the extra-innings automatic-runner rule and the difference between pitch framing and “slide framing,” and answer listener emails about MLB veterans being better people than players, what would happen if home run trots were optional, and whether two players could switch places without being noticed, plus a Stat Blast about the hitter-runner duos with the most runs plated.

Audio intro: Ian Fisher, "One Foot"
Audio outro: The Easybeats, "I’ll Find Somebody to Take Your Place"

Link to latest Shohei heroics
Link to Shohei shiver video
Link to Willians foul pop video
Link to Willians slide video
Link to Ben on Astudillo
Link to MLB 4-seam spin rate by year
Link to MLB slider spin rate by year
Link to Ben on foreign substances
Link to Ben and Rob on the ball in spring training
Link to Eno on the new ball so far
Link to HR/FB rate by season
Link to MLB.com on new Atlantic League rules
Link to Jayson Stark on new Atlantic League rules
Link to Ben on the starting pitcher protagonist
Link to 2019 EW interview with Atlantic Leaguers
Link to Ben on moving the mound back
Link to Pages from Baseball’s Past on Litwhiler
Link to Stat Blast data
Link to Eddie Robinson autobiography passage

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Prospect writers Kevin Goldstein and Eric Longenhagen will sometimes have enough player notes to compile a scouting post. This is one of those dispatches, a collection of thoughts after another weekend of college baseball, minor league spring training, and big league action. Remember, prospect rankings can be found on The Board.

Kevin’s Notes

Jonathan Cannon, RHP, Georgia: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K

After throwing 11.2 scoreless innings out of the pen last spring as a freshman for Georgia, Cannon entered the year as a potential late-first round pick this summer, earning draft eligibility as a sophomore due to age. He’s had an up-and-down season, but was at his best over the weekend as he shutdown one of the top teams in the country in Vanderbilt, while throwing 75 of his 111 pitches for strikes. At 6-foot-6 and 215 pounds, Cannon has a classic starting pitcher’s frame to go with an on-line delivery and clean arm action. On the season his stats don’t impress, with a 4.35 ERA and 21 hits allowed in 20 innings, but with just three walks and 24 strikeouts, the numbers indicate an ability to locate, which is exactly what he did against the Commodores.

Cannon has decent velocity, with a fastball that averages 94 mph and touches 97, but his three-quarters arm angle produces less than desirable shape to the heater. His mid-80s slider isn’t a big breaker and his upper-80s changeup has decent fade but is a bit on the firm side. There’s nothing even bordering on nasty in the arsenal, but Cannon can locate any of his pitches in all four quadrants of the strike zone, and knows how to work outside it when looking for a chase. With continued success, he should return to those pre-season late first-round projections, and overall feels like a classic safety-over-upside pick. Read the rest of this entry »

There’s a kind of depressing infamy that comes with being a player on the losing end of a lopsided trade. Players like Glenn Davis, Ernie Broglio, and Larry Andersen are more famous for the players they were traded for than anything they did in their own careers. It’s an unfair bit of notoriety, too; there’s not much cosmic justice involved when Harvey Kuenn, who played in 10 All-Star games, is remembered more for a decision to trade Rocky Colavito he didn’t make rather than being a .314/.360/.426, 23.5 WAR hitter in seven full seasons with the Detroit Tigers. Jim Fregosi is another star who’s a member of this unfortunate club.

In the case of Fregosi, his run as an elite shortstop might actually be a distant third in the ol’ memory banks. If you asked a random baseball fan in 2021 what they know about him, at least one who isn’t an Angels fan, you’d likely get one of two responses: his status as the player traded for Nolan Ryan or his 15-year post-playing career as a manager for four teams, most famously those notorious misfits, the 1993 Philadelphia Phillies. But when Mike Trout blew through the Angels record for the most career WAR for a position player, the previous holder wasn’t Tim Salmon or Brian Downing or Darin Erstad or Bobby Grich. It was Jim Fregosi. Read the rest of this entry »