Jay Jaffe: I’ve also got a 5 1/2 year old who just came home from school with a fever after getting Not Enough Sleep last night — thankfully everybody in the household has tested negative in the past 24 hours, which is a start — but we’re going to see how long I can push this chat without interruptions. Please bear with me.
2:05
Dmitrt: Hi Jay. What should the yanks do with Chapman? And what WILL they do?
2:07
Jay Jaffe: They should probably give him a break from closing games until he starts pitching better; he’s allowed a run in each of his past four outings. I haven’t looked at his numbers closely, but I do wonder about whether his release point is off, which is something i noted in connection with last year’s struggles https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aroldis-chapmans-nosedive-is-dragging-the-…
2:07
Alby: Are the majority of players in the Hall of Fame small hall or big hall guys, or are they evenly split? I know they get a vote. Do they tend to make their picks public?
The Mets lost another starting pitcher on Thursday, as the team announced that the pain that forced Max Scherzer from his start Wednesday has been diagnosed as a moderate to high grade oblique sprain; the anticipated timetable for Scherzer’s return is six to eight weeks. After throwing a slider to Albert Pujols, Scherzer was in visible discomfort and quickly pulled the plug himself, sparing Buck Showalter the most dangerous part of a manager’s job: telling Max Scherzer to hit the showers:
The loss of Scherzer comes at a time the Mets are already down two other starting pitchers (three if you count Joey Lucchesi‘s loss to Tommy John surgery, which I’m not). Most notably, Jacob deGrom’s 2022 season has yet to begin due to a stress reaction in his right scapula. Tylor Megill is also currently on the IL due to biceps tendinitis diagnosed after the worst start of his professional career. Luckily, there’s reason to be hopeful in both cases. The most recent imaging of deGrom’s scapula indicated it is healing effectively, raising hopes that the ace’s return isn’t too far off. Meanwhile, Megill’s MRI didn’t reveal anything darker than a case of tendinitis, and he’s already scheduled to play catch today:
Jacob deGrom's MRI and CT scan revealed "considerable healing of the stress reaction on his scapula," Mets say.
He has been cleared to begin loading and strengthening his shoulder and will be "re-imaged in approximately three weeks."
At 20-18, the Blue Jays are already eight games back in a division that they were projected to win. While they don’t lack for reasons as to why they’ve yet to take full flight, an infield that has yet to live up to high expectations is a significant factor. On the left side, Matt Chapman hasn’t found his footing since arriving from Oakland, and Bo Bichette has been in a replacement-level funk. Cavan Biggio, who was expected to platoon at second base after being bumped off third by Chapman’s arrival, has not only lost his job to Santiago Espinal (who’s been very good) but on Monday was optioned to Triple-A Buffalo after coming off the COVID-19 injured list. Even Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has yet to replicate last year’s MVP-caliber form.
Guerrero is hitting .284/.368/.470 for a 142 wRC+, which while down 24 points from last year’s AL-leading mark, is still plenty potent. Even for a team that has just three other regulars with a wRC+ of 100 or better — namely center fielder George Springer (139), catcher/DH Alejandro Kirk (100), and Espinal (125) — he’s far from the Blue Jays’ biggest problem, and in the interest of keeping this article short of a novella, we’ll save any analysis of him for another day. On the other hand, Bichette (.242/.283/.363, 86 wRC+) and Chapman (.185/.272/.362, 84 wRC+), while not the offense’s least productive regulars — Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (74 wRC+), Teoscar Hernández (61), and Raimel Tapia (53 wRC+) have been worse — were expected to rank among the majors’ best at their respective positions; the former was sixth among shortstops in our preseason positional power rankings series, the latter seventh. Read the rest of this entry »
This Wednesday, Corbin Burnes had a forgettable start. In six innings, he allowed four runs and struck out five while walking none. The scoring came courtesy of two home runs, a three-run shot by Austin Riley and a solo homer by Marcell Ozuna. Burnes lasted six innings, and while the Brewers ended up winning the game 7-6 in extras, it wasn’t exactly the kind of start you expect from the defending NL Cy Young winner.
Last year, Burnes was downright electric en route to winning the award. He led the NL in ERA at 2.43, and his ERA was significantly higher than his 1.63 FIP. He struck out 35.6% of the batters he faced while walking only 5.2%. He did it in only 28 starts and 167 innings, which raised questions about the trade-off between transcendent pitching and bulk innings.
If you only looked at his first and most recent starts of 2022, you might think the same thing was happening again. You’ve already heard about the most recent one; in his first start, he went five innings against the Cubs, allowed three earned runs, and struck out only four while walking three. Sure, the runs were uncharacteristic, but five and six inning starts? We’ve seen that before. Read the rest of this entry »
On this episode, we chat about the AL West-leading Astros before getting help from an astrophysicist as we try to understand why the baseball continues to act so strangely.
To start the show, David Laurila welcomes Julia Morales, reporter for AT&T SportsNet Southwest and the Houston Astros. Morales has been covering the team for a decade and shares what it was like to go through the lean years as well as the championship run, and how the rise of analytics has changed her job as a broadcaster. We also hear about going inside the Green Monster and stories involving Jose Altuve, Zack Greinke, Jeremy Peña, A.J. Hinch, Dusty Baker, and more. [2:44]
After that, Dan Szymborski and Ben Clemens welcome Dr. Meredith Wills, who first appeared on episode 909, back to the show. Dr. Wills has continued her research into what is going on with the baseball and shares her findings on what she is calling an “unforced error.” We learn how humidors can affect baseballs differently — with the help of a leftover food analogy — and what could be causing dents in the ball. Finally, Ben and Dan ask the good doctor what she would do to fix the league’s equipment issues if she were given total control. [34:47]
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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the rabidity of opossums and Eugenio Suárez‘s keepie-uppie skills, then discuss the White Sox offense and Tony La Russa’s rationale for batting Andrew Vaughn ninth, Max Scherzer’s oblique injury, and the possibility of a Juan Soto trade, before meeting major leaguers (53:30) Logan Gillaspie (Orioles) and Brandon Hughes (Cubs), and Stat Blasting (1:06:26) about the rapid Tyler/Taylor takeover of MLB player names.
Audio intro: We Are Scientists, “I Don’t Bite” Audio outro: Kiwi Jr., “Tyler”
When a batter steps up to the plate against Framber Valdez, there are a couple things that can happen. The first (and most embarrassing) outcome is a strikeout. It doesn’t happen too frequently, thankfully – Valdez’s current strikeout rate of 18.9% is on the low side – but still, it hurts to have stood there without positively impacting the game whatsoever. How about a walk to ease the pain? Valdez isn’t exactly a control artist, and his current walk rate of 10.1% is on the high end. A free trip to first makes for a satisfied hitter – no further explanation needed. But a potentially greater outcome is a ball in play, which constitute 69.2% of Valdez’s allowed outcomes. That’s a lot of contact! Balls in play include outs, certainly, but also the doubles, triples, and home runs that galvanize batters and fans alike. No other outcome is as unpredictable yet rewarding.
Based on this, you might think hitters enjoy teeing off against Valdez. There’s one problem, though. So far this season, their collective groundball rate against him is a whopping 69.0%. Their collective fly ball rate, meanwhile, is a mere 6.9%. Not that a grounder can’t become a hit, but without an element of luck, it’s a single at best. And when hitters have attempted to circumvent that issue by swinging for the fences… well, they haven’t succeeded. Valdez has allowed just eight fly balls this season. It’s his world they’re living in. Read the rest of this entry »
Dan Szymborski: And we are here as this is a chat!
12:01
Guest: Martin Perez is on a tear! Small sample luck? Better pitch mix? Dead ball? Can any of this be sustainable?
12:02
Dan Szymborski: The dead ball helps him a bit. His cutter’s generally been working, and his peripheral numbers have improved too. He’s had runs where his cutter’s been working and he’s been effective, but he has had trouble keeping that up
12:02
M.F. Luder: Is there any hope for Alex Verdugo?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, in fact, he has better advanced hitting stats better than most guys playing that poorly
12:04
Joey Baggadonuts: If/when the Nats call up Luis Garcia, what do you expect to see from him rest-of-season? He’s absolutely crushed AAA while being quite young for the level; Steamer seems like it’s underselling him…
Steven Wilson is a 27-year-old rookie with a captivating pitch profile. His primary offering is a riding, mid-90s fastball delivered with good extension, and from a low vertical approach angle. His breaking ball is a bullet slider that’s he honed with the help of technology. Wilson also has a Vulcan change in his repertoire, although it mostly stays in his back pocket. By and large, the 6-foot-3 right-hander is thriving as a two-pitch pitcher.
An eighth-round senior-sign by San Diego in 2018, Wilson has come out of the Padres bullpen 15 times this season and thrown the same number of innings. With the exception of his most-recent outing — three earned runs allowed in two-thirds of an inning — he’s been very good. The Santa Clara University product has allowed 12 hits, issued five walks, and fanned 17 batters. He’s been credited with three wins and one save.
Wilson — No. 9 on our newly-released San Diego Padres Top Prospects list — discussed his pitch mix when the Friars visited Pittsburgh at the end of April.
——-
David Laurila: How do you get guys out? Can you answer that question without the cliche, “attacking the strike zone”?
Steven Wilson: “Well, that helps. But for me, it’s typically playing the fastball up in the zone, and then throwing a slider off of that. My slider goes down. It has more vertical break — more drop — than most sliders, and less horizontal than most sliders. A lot of people think it’s a curveball, but if you watch it in slo-mo, it actually has bullet spin like a slider. So yeah, fastballs up top and sliders down. Sometimes a changeup down.” Read the rest of this entry »
Last Saturday, Jalen Beeks had a thoroughly unimportant day at the ballpark. With the Rays trailing Toronto 5-1, he came in to pitch the top of the ninth inning. The stakes? Helping the team hit the showers 10 or 15 minutes earlier, I’d say – he wasn’t going to catapult Tampa to a win with a good performance, what with a four-run deficit and only three outs remaining, but everyone on the team would surely appreciate an efficient outing.
He did it! He got three straight groundball outs. After that, while he presumably changed into his street clothes in the clubhouse, the Rays failed to score in the bottom half of the inning, and the game ended. Thank you for coming to this episode of “FanGraphs Narrates Low-leverage Relief Outings.”
But wait! After this humdrum appearance, an anonymous tipster lit the FanGraphs signal (it’s like the Bat Signal, only with the FanGraphs logo instead). There was more to this half inning than first met the eye. I was on the case. Read the rest of this entry »
Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to today’s chat!
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Dan Szymborski
