The Mariners’ starting pitchers can be broken into two different groups. There are the veterans at the top in Marco Gonzales and James Paxton, who between them have spent about 10 seasons in Seattle. They’ve both been successful, and so long as they stay healthy — not a given for Paxton — we know what to expect from them. The other half of the Mariners’ rotation is the young guys: Justus Sheffield, Justin Dunn, Logan Gilbert, and others. Each of them had or has considerable prospect stock, but while they’re expected to be successful at some point in the future, we can’t be sure that success will arrive in 2021.

Holding those two groups together in the middle is left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, fittingly, as he represents something from both. At 29 years old and with nine seasons spent in NPB, he’s already a veteran. But as with the young guys, there is still a lot to learn about how he will fare in the majors, given that his MLB experience amounts to two years. The first was 2019, his rookie season and first time pitching in the U.S., when he posted a 5.46 ERA and 5.71 FIP in 161.2 innings as Seattle finished last in the AL West.

The pandemic-shortened 2020 season, though, suggested there could be a lot more to him. Kikuchi’s ERA stayed above 5.00, but his FIP plummeted to 3.30, and he made significant progress with his strikeout and home run rates. If his surface numbers take the step forward this year that his peripherals did last year, it would be a major boost to the Mariners as they try to crawl toward contention.

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2020 season couldn’t have been much fun for the Nationals or Stephen Strasburg. In the wake of their World Series victory over the Astros, the team sputtered out of the gate, while Strasburg, the MVP of that World Series and a newly-minted $245 million man via his opt-out and re-signing in December 2019, was limited to two starts before undergoing late August surgery to alleviate carpal tunnel neuritis.

On Tuesday, Strasburg took the mound for his first Grapefruit League appearance — against the Astros, coincidentally, albeit a much different team from the one he faced in the World Series, with Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, and Yuli Gurriel the only starters in both games. The 32-year-old righty threw 38 pitches, had good command of a fastball that reportedly sat at 93 mph and ranged from 91 to 93 (he averaged 93.9 mph in 2019, via Statcast), and retired five out of the six batters he faced. He struck out four, including Correa looking at a high fastball to end the first, Kyle Tucker looking at a fastball in the second, and Gurriel check-swinging at a low curveball.

These descriptions come from the Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty and will have to do, as there was no television or Trackman for the game. The Nationals’ Twitter account did celebrate Strasmas by posting a press box-level video of the four strikeouts:

Time to open up your #Strasmas presents…

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— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) March 10, 2021

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, we looked at my favorite breakout candidates for the 2021 season. Today, we shift to the players I’m more bearish about, and I’m not talking about pilfering picnic baskets. Whether it’s players who I don’t believe will match their 2020 performance, meet their 2021 projections, or who have some aspect of their game that worries me, each of these eight hitters is one who I would place firmly in the “sell” column. That doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll be awful or bad, but it does mean I don’t think the best is yet to come.

José Abreu, Chicago White Sox

Busts are a relative notion, and a player can make this list and still be a contributor. Abreu was terrific in 2020 and is one of the few players in baseball you could inarguably call a leader, but the fact remains that it was by far his best performance in years. Sure, he pasted the ball to the tune of the 10th-highest average exit velocity in the league, but he destroyed baseballs in 2018 and ’19 as well and was far less valuable in those full seasons. Abreu’s far more likely to be an average player than he is to contend for the MVP again, and when you have a guy whose WAR projection for an entire season comes in under his 60-game WAR from last year’s short season, who you have to admit he has some bust potential. That’s doubly true when he’s in his mid-30s; sluggers aging like Nelson Cruz are the exception, not the rule.

Jackie Bradley Jr., Milwaukee Brewers

The popular conception of JBJ is that he had something of a comeback season in 2020, and that’s true on the surface, as his wRC+ of 120 was 30 points above anything he’s done in recent years. The only problem with that part of the tale is that in this case, his .343 BABIP, 45 points above his career average, was the driver of his flashy line. Remove that and his season looked a lot like 2019, when one of the questions entering the offseason was whether the Red Sox would even tender him a contract for 2020. From the specific hit data, ZiPS thinks that he played like a player with a .306 BABIP rather than one in the .340s. He’s still a solid defensive player, but his speed numbers are starting to slip, which tends to be a leading indicator of defensive decline for an outfielder. The relatively small outfield in Milwaukee isn’t the best park to take advantage of JBJ’s talents; his defensive performance would have been more welcome in places like San Francisco or Kansas City. All that said, I should note that ZiPS disagrees with me on this one.

Justin Upton, Los Angeles Angels

Read the rest of this entry »

Dylan Bundy had his best statistical season in 2020. Pitching for the Los Angeles Angels after four-plus years with the Orioles, the 28-year-old right-hander posted career-bests in ERA (3.29), FIP (2.95), and K/9 (9.87). Small sample that it was — 11 starts in a pandemic-shortened campaign — the results represented a breath of fresh air. Bundy had become somewhat stagnant in Baltimore, putting up pedestrian numbers for a club that was going nowhere in terms of short-term contention. Change proved to be a panacea.

Bundy’s secondary pitches, paired with improved command, went a long way toward his success. The fourth-overall pick in the 2011 draft no longer has a plus fastball, but buoyed by a better understanding of his craft, he no longer needs one. With his third decade on planet Earth looming in the not-too-distant future — and his early-career injuries long in the rearview — Bundy has made the full transformation from thrower to pitcher.

———

David Laurila: How would you describe your career so far?

Dylan Bundy: “It’s flown by, that’s for sure. You learn a lot when you first break into the league — 2016 is when I stayed here — and that’s [continued] up to now. The game doesn’t change, but with hitters’ swing paths, the analytics, the shifting… there are ways that the game does change, slowly over time. I think that would be the biggest thing I’d take away from when I first started, to now.”

Laurila: Have you changed?

Bundy: “Overall, I guess… numbers-wise, I have changed. Obviously, everybody knows about the velocity. It’s come down, so now I’m learning how to pitch more. Ever since 2016-2017, I’ve been learning how to throw more off-speed stuff, and finally it clicked. You know, these hitters can time up a 110 mph fastball if you throw it down the middle three times in a row. Eventually, they’re going to catch up to it.

“I’ve really learned that you’ve got to throw pitches for a purpose. That’s whether it’s off the plate, in, off-speed stuff earlier in the count, heaters later in the count, or whatever it may be on that specific day. But it’s definitely been a long journey, learning this stuff.” Read the rest of this entry »

This season, for the first time since the Toronto Blue Jays played their inaugural games in 1977, there will not be a dedicated radio broadcast of their games. Instead of a radio team broadcasting the game, the audio from television broadcasts will be simulcast to radio listeners. Rogers, the Canadian telecom giant that owns both the Blue Jays and the networks they are broadcast on, has made assurances that this is merely a safety measure in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. But it is unclear what the plans are for the future of the Blue Jays on the radio. Longtime broadcaster Mike Wilner was laid off this winter, and there has been no replacement announced; even apart from the loss of a Jays radio broadcast, the AM sports radio landscape in Canada has taken significant blows recently, with Bell Media, another telecom giant, unceremoniously taking a number of local stations off the air last month. Should this season prove to Rogers that having a dedicated radio broadcast is an expense not worth carrying into the future, Blue Jays baseball on the radio could prove to be another one of the casualties of the pandemic.

It’s been almost a century since the first major league baseball game was broadcast over the radio: an early-August game between the Pirates and the Phillies in 1921. Despite resistance from both traditional print media and team ownership, the popularity of such broadcasts took off, sparking a conflict that would fundamentally change the revenue structure of major league baseball. In his book Crack of the Bat: A History of Baseball on the Radio, James R. Walker writes about the forces that changed the attitudes of baseball higher-ups towards the broadcasting of baseball on the radio. Declining attendance was at first, and stubbornly, blamed on radio broadcasting, leading team ownership to call for bans on such broadcasts. But with the growing influence and financial power of advertising in broadcasting and the realization that radio was a boon to developing geographically-displaced fandom (especially in the western United States, where many people lived far from a major-league team), fewer and fewer teams held out against the practice.

There was, at the same time, a fundamental shift in what the purpose of such broadcasts was. As Walker writes, the World Series, from 1921 until 1933, was broadcast on the radio — not because it was lucrative to do so, but as a service to the country’s interested public. In 1934, though, commissioner Kenesaw Mountain Landis sold the rights to the World Series broadcast to the Ford Motor Company. Within a few years, a federal judge would hand down a decision naming baseball broadcasts on the radio as the property of the teams involved, and New York, the last holdout of broadcast bans, embraced this new revenue stream. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about MLB.TV repetition, Yadier Molina throwing out Jose Siri, teams opting to end innings early, the effect of Jarred Kelenic’s injury on the Mariners service-time controversy, the Astros signing Jake Odorizzi, and teams being more brazen about lowering their competitive balance tax assessments, then preview the 2021 Blue Jays (21:50) with Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic and the 2021 Giants (1:06:14) with Grant Brisbee of The Athletic.

Audio intro: Zeus, "At the Risk of Repeating"
Audio interstitial 1: Neil Young, "Far From Home"
Audio interstitial 2: Old & In the Way, "Old and in the Way"
Audio outro: Sloan, "Everything You’ve Done Wrong"

Link to sentient-baseballs email episode
Link to MLB Film Room
Link to Molina/Siri play
Link to Evans/Phillips face-off
Link to Ichiro/Cameron simulated game
Link to story about Kelenic’s knee injury
Link to rule about “rolling” innings
Link to Dan Szymborski on the Odorizzi signing
Link to Odorizzi contract terms
Link to drafts and competitions spreadsheet
Link to story on Kovalchuk’s 17-year deal
Link to story about Kovalchuk penalty reduction
Link to story about Blue Jays’ radio feed
Link to story about Blue Jays’ free agency premium
Link to Kaitlyn on where the Jays will play
Link to Kaitlyn on Vlad
Link to Dan on Vlad as a breakout candidate
Link to Kaitlyn on the Jays’ pitching depth chart
Link to Kaitlyn on the Jays’ new complex
Link to story on the Jays’ high performance department
Link to story on Biggio and the less lively ball
Link to Spin Rate podcast
Link to Ben Carsley on the Giants
Link to Matt Trueblood on Yastrzemski
Link to Grant on Yastrzemski
Link to the Giants’ giant coaching staff
Link to Andrew Baggarly on Alyssa Nakken
Link to Grant on the Giants’ old lineup
Link to Grant on the Giants’ rotation depth
Link to Grant in 2017 on AT&T Park offense
Link to Grant on Oracle Park offense in 2020
Link to Baggs & Brisbee podcast

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Even before they signed free agent Trevor Bauer, the Dodgers appeared to have a stacked rotation, particularly with David Price returning from his opt-out season. Now, with Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and Bauer in place, and with youngsters Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin, and Dustin May attempting to reclaim starting spots as well after spending the postseason as swingmen, the unit is bursting at the seams. On Monday, Price made his Cactus League debut, and both he and manager Dave Roberts made clear that his role is up in the air, even if it means pitching out of the bullpen.

It may not come to that, though like every other team concerned about the jump in the schedule from 60 games to 162, the Dodgers will call upon their depth to avoid overtaxing any of their starters, particularly given their expectations for another run deep into October. That’s already been one of the signatures of the Andrew Friedman regime. Between very liberal usage of the Injured List and some fairly quick hooks, the Dodgers allowed just two pitchers to make 30 starts in a season during the 2016-19 campaigns, with only five throwing enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Under last year’s shortened schedule, no Dodger started more than 10 times (which prorates to 27 in a full season) or qualified for the ERA title, with Kershaw topping out at 58.1 innings.

Here’s how the team’s workload management stacks up relative to the rest of the majors:

I’ve combined the separate 2016-19 and ’20 totals using the actual innings qualifiers, which vary according to schedule length and don’t need to prorate, and used an 11-start threshold for last year, which prorates to about 30 over a full season. As you can see, over the past half-decade, the Dodgers are tied for the majors’ second-lowest total in terms of innings qualifiers, and have the lowest total in terms of start “qualifiers.” They’re mostly among bad teams via both of those lower rankings, save for the A’s. If you sort the various columns, you can see that Dodgers’ starters rank 14th in total innings in that span, yet third in WAR. It’s a strategy that’s worked out well, to say the least. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s performance review week at my day job, which means I get to find out how many WAR my manager thinks I accrued last year. Based on that, she’ll assign me into one of four buckets: poor, developing, strong, and top. It’s one of those systems where the top and bottom levers are rarely exercised but the road to a “strong” is traversable ground.

At my workplace, annual compensation adjustments are directly tied to which category an employee falls into. In the lowest bucket — I’m sure someone’s fallen into it but I’ve yet to see or hear about it — you won’t receive anything, but after that it’s smooth sailing. The next rung up gets a cost of living bump or a little more, and the raises only increase from there.

It’s not a perfect system, of course. A couple of the performance inputs feel a little BABIP-ey, subject to the whims of Google’s search algorithms and the ability of our teammates. Speaking of teammates, clubhouse chemistry undoubtedly matters here: The camaraderie of your team and your relationship with management are like park factors, invisible mechanisms adding or subtracting a thousand bucks from what our $/WAR suggests we should earn. Still, the criteria is reasonably clear and the process about as transparent as I could ask for.

***

Poor: Performance often falls below the expectations of the role despite support, follow-up and feedback. Read the rest of this entry »

Brady Singer isn’t exactly a square peg in a round hole, but he is atypical among modern-day hurlers. At a time where high heater is all the rage, the 24-year-old Kansas City Royals right-hander prefers to hunt groundballs, and he does so almost exclusively with a two-pitch mix. Moreover, his velocity is middling. Singer’s tailing two-seamer averaged a bit over 93 mph last year, while his slurvy slider was 10 mph south of that mark.

And then there was his take rate. Legendary Detroit Tigers broadcaster Ernie Harwell used to say that a batter, “Stood there like the house by the side of the road and watched that one go by,” and the phrase could have been used often with the former Florida Gator toeing the rubber. Among pitchers to throw at least 40 innings, only Lance McCullers Jr. logged a lower Z-Swing% than did Singer.

Drafted 18th-overall by the Royals in 2018, Singer finished his 2020 rookie campaign with a 4.06 ERA, a 4.08 FIP, and a 53.1% groundball rate over a dozen starts. His K/9 — this despite a pitch-to-contact MO — was a solid 8.53. Filled with confidence, Singer is comfortably slotted in the middle of the Royals rotation for the 2021 season.

———

David Laurila: How do you self-identify as a pitcher?

Brady Singer: “I’m a sinker guy. I’m one of the few sinker guys that are still around. The big thing now, with analytics, is four-seamers up in the zone with a lot of ride. I’m fully two-seamers. I can make it run, and I can make a sink. I guess I’m one of the guys that hasn’t adapted to the major analytic standpoint. Basically, I like to move the ball around a lot.” Read the rest of this entry »

Prospect writers Kevin Goldstein and Eric Longenhagen will sometimes have enough player notes to compile a scouting post. This is one of those dispatches, a collection of college baseball and spring training thoughts from this past weekend. Remember, prospect rankings can be found on The Board.

Kevin’s Notes

Will The College Hitters Please Come Forward?

Eric and I have talked about this subject in this space and elsewhere, but the college hitter group for the 2021 draft is developing into an especially challenging one for scouting departments. Much of that is because with both an exceptionally short 2020 season and no Cape Cod League, it was hard to line up boards heading into the year. Some of the best freshmen from 2019 became the best draft-eligible bats heading into the year almost by default, and many have disappointed. Take a look at this quartet, all of whom entered the season as potential top-half of the first round picks. Read the rest of this entry »