With a million games, no off days, and roughly six quality starting pitchers among the teams left in the playoffs, baseball is wall-to-wall action right now. You can’t take two steps without tripping over a four-hour game, and every decision — Bring in the lefty? Ride the hot hand? — feels momentous. But let’s take a moment to ponder something truly important. What if baseball were more like Mario Kart?

If you haven’t played Mario Kart before, first of all: I’m sorry. It’s honestly the best. It’s a racing video game series with a variety of beloved Nintendo characters, but there’s one part I care about most for the purposes of this article: the game actively works to slow down the leader and speed up the laggards. If you’re out front, you can expect middling power-ups and specifically targeted countermeasures to slow you down a bit. If you’re bringing up the rear, the game gives with both hands to help you get caught up. It’s possible to run away with a race, but the game is working hard to make it less likely.

Baseball wouldn’t do anything like that, not least because it would upend more than 100 years of tradition. But if they did, they’d have plenty of options, so I decided to run through a few of them. Topical? Of course not. That’s never stopped me before though, so let’s do it. Read the rest of this entry »

The New York Yankees had a chance. It was the third inning; the bases were loaded, the game was tied, and Luke Voit — baseball’s home run champ in the regular season — was at the plate. When Tampa Bay Rays starter Charlie Morton fell behind him 3-0, you could practically hear the Yankees’ bench vibrating with anticipation. Then back-to-back pitches were called strikes at the knees, and there was a new kind of tension. Both offerings could have been ruled out of the zone to force home a run, but they weren’t, and now Voit had just one more shot to do damage. Instead, he grounded out harmlessly to the shortstop.

Then the Rays got their chance. Joey Wendle singled to lead off the top of the fourth against Yankees right-hander Masahiro Tanaka, who followed that with a walk issued to Willy Adames. Then Kevin Kiermaier turned on the first pitch he saw and launched it into the empty seats in right field for a three-run homer to put the Rays ahead. Tampa Bay added on with two more big homers in the ensuing innings while simultaneously holding the Yankees to their smallest run total of the postseason in an 8-4 victory in ALDS Game 3 on Wednesday at Petco Park in San Diego. The Rays, the AL’s top seed in the playoffs, are now up 2-1 in the series and just a game away from eliminating their division rivals. Read the rest of this entry »

After their regular season dustup — not to mention Houston’s jawing leading into the ALDS — it seemed as if the Astros and the Athletics might come to postseason blows. Instead, they’ve settled for a barrage of long balls. Wednesday’s Game 3 featured seven more home runs, including five from the eventually triumphant Oakland, tying a postseason franchise record set during the Jose Canseco era. The A’s avoided a sweep and pushed the series to a fourth game while the combined home run count in the series climbed to 18.

For the first time in the postseason, the grind of a five-game series without an off day had a clear impact on which pitchers were deployed and how they performed. With electric rookie reliever Enoli Paredes unavailable after pitching in the first two games, and the other Astros starters unavailable to piggyback due to the Division Series schedule and the smoldering questions surrounding Zack Greinke’s health, the soft underbelly of the Astros bullpen was exposed late in the game as the Athletics scored five combined runs to take the lead.

Most of Oakland’s damage, as well as both the most significant narrative and literal swing in the game, came against reliever Josh James, who entered the game with a two-run lead. After pitching a scoreless, double play-aided sixth inning, James returned for the seventh and surrendered singles to Marcus Semien and Tommy La Stella before Chad Pinder, who had been in a strict left/right platoon with Jake Lamb leading up to the game, was left in to face the same-handed James. He sent a first-pitch breaking ball over the right field wall, tying the game at seven. Read the rest of this entry »

This time there wasn’t much offense. On the heels of a Game 1 that finished 9-5, the Atlanta Braves took a commanding two-games-to-none lead in the NLDS by pushing past the Miami Marlins by a score of 2-0. Ian Anderson and four relievers combined for the shutout, with a pair of solo home runs providing just enough run-support for a suddenly-stellar pitching staff.

What scoring there was came early. Dansby Swanson took Pablo López deep in the second inning with what was his second home run in his last two at-bats. In Game 1, the 26-year-old shortstop — given name James Dansby Swanson — had homered his final time up to cap a six-run Atlanta seventh.

Travis d’Arnaud, who’d preceded Swanson’s Game 1 blast with one of his own, then went yard against López in the fourth. Seven plate appearances into the NLDS, 31-year-old backstop — given name Travis E. d’Arnaud — now had a single, a double, and a pair of walks to go along with his two dingers.

Anderson wasn’t giving up anything. A suddenly-feeble Marlins lineup managed just three hits off him in five-and-two thirds innings — a near copy-cat of his no-runs-on-two-hits, six-inning performance last week in the Wild Card round. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller discuss the merits of stats about the success of teams that hit more home runs in the playoffs and then review the first several games of the division series, touching on the unparalleled power of Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees’ piggyback pitcher decision, the Astros’ resurgence, the overtaxed Padres’ bullpen, the latest bad blood between the Braves and Ronald Acuña Jr., Clayton Kershaw’s 2020 renaissance, bad blown ball/strike calls, and more (plus a Stat Blast about the biggest mismatches in height between opposing starting pitchers).

Audio intro: Eleanor Friedberger, "My Mistakes"
Audio outro: Olivia Jean, "Mistakes"

Link to Lindsey Adler on the Yankees’ pitching plan
Link to Ben on second-guessing
Link to most lopsided starting pitcher heights
Link to Ben on Kershaw
Link to research on shadows
Link to FanGraphs playoff coverage

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Bob Gibson, who died of pancreatic cancer on Friday, October 2 — the fourth Hall of Famer to die this year, after Al Kaline, Tom Seaver, and former teammate Lou Brock — was as tough and intense as they came. In 1967, about midway through his 17-year run with the Cardinals (1959-75), he was hit on the right shin by a Roberto Clemente liner. He pitched to three more batters before his already-cracked fibula snapped, sending him to the disabled list for over seven weeks. In the 13 months following his return, he was as dominant as any pitcher since the dead ball era, a run that included a 1.12 ERA during the 1968 regular season, still the lowest of any qualifier since 1914.

The indomitable Gibson possessed a mental toughness as well, one founded in a reserve of self-confidence that was the equal of his 95-mile-an-hour fastball and menacing glare. He dealt in intimidation, asserting his ownership of the inside corner of the plate and taking pride in his ability to “mess with a batter’s head without letting him into mine.” In his 1992 autobiography, Stranger to the Game, he described his repertoire: “I actually used about nine pitches — two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a change-up, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman.”

“He’d knock down his own grandmother if she dared to challenge him,” Hank Aaron once counseled teammate Dusty Baker. In one oft-told story, Gibson plunked former roommate Bill White after he was traded from the Cardinals to the Phillies:

Bob Gibson on hitting his friend Bill White. pic.twitter.com/6jxLF2MB5e

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 3, 2020

“I wanted to own the outside part of the plate. And the only reason you throw in here is to keep a guy from going out there,” said Gibson. Read the rest of this entry »

The San Diego Padres knew this was the outcome they risked. Just two pitches into the second inning of his start in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers, right-handed pitcher Mike Clevinger made a somber exit from the game, wincing at a pain in his elbow. He would later say it felt like bones were hitting the back of his elbow. The Padres knew this might happen, because it was almost exactly what did the last time Clevinger started a game, back on September 23. It was the reason his attempt to clear himself for the team’s Wild Card series last week failed. This was the risk the team took, however, because it was still the Padres’ best chance at avoiding precisely what happened anyway — a revolving door of relievers being asked to keep the team afloat for a fourth time in as many playoff games.

It wasn’t the Padres’ bullpen that stole the show on Tuesday, however, but that of the Dodgers, who picked up another short start by Walker Buehler by silencing San Diego’s deep lineup en route to a 5-1 victory to open the best-of-five series at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The second game of the series will take place Wednesday at 9:08 p.m.

Buehler went four innings for the Dodgers while allowing just one run on two hits, but walked four and threw 95 pitches. Behind him, Dustin May, Victor González, Blake Treinen and Kenley Jansen combined for five innings of one-hit shutout baseball, striking out six and walking none.

For five innings, the Padres’ bullpen had walked a high-wire act without falling: eight walks, a hit by pitch, and an error in the field behind them, yet somehow just one run allowed. Those numbers suggest shoddy command, to be sure, but they also show the lengths to which the ‘pen was willing to go to avoid giving into the Dodgers’ powerful lineup. Of the 116 pitches thrown by Padres arms over those innings, just 58 were strikes. That led to a mind-numbing 11 hitters reaching three-ball counts; it also led to the Dodgers not recording a hit.

In the sixth inning, the dam finally broke. With the game tied at one apiece, Padres right-hander Garrett Richards walked Chris Taylor with one out before surrendering the first hit of the game — a Mookie Betts double to right-center. Left-hander Matt Strahm was then brought into face Corey Seager, who scored Taylor on a fly ball to give Los Angeles its first lead of the game. Read the rest of this entry »

In this astonishingly homer-heavy postseason, no teams have played homer-heavier games than the Yankees and the Rays in this ALDS. Of the 24 runs they’ve scored, all but four have come via the long ball. In every playoff game this postseason, the team that has out-homered the other has won. And so it went in Game 2, with the Rays’ four homers — accounting for six of their seven runs — surpassing the Yankees’ two, en route to a 7-5 final score.

All of the Yankees’ home runs came off the bat of Giancarlo Stanton, whose extraordinary power manifested in the form of a shockingly casual rocket into right field, tying the game at one in the second, and a three-run shot crushed to the tune of 118 mph in the fourth, both off Rays starter Tyler Glasnow. They were his fourth and fifth homers in four postseason games this year.

Unfortunately for the Yankees, though, both of these homers were hit while trailing. Overshadowing Stanton’s displays of strength was the way that the Yankees chose to set up their pitching. The rookie Deivi García was ostensibly tapped for the start. But after pitching a single inning and giving up yet another Randy Arozarena home run, García was lifted, a secret opener for J.A. Happ. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about potato chip sponsors, playoff games at neutral sites, juiced-ball suspicions, ALDS bad blood, how Pedro Martínez approached playoff starts, postseason MLB debuts, and the power of Giancarlo Stanton, then answer listener emails about how 2020’s shortened season will affect future pitcher workloads, what counts as a “crooked number,” how to define a “hard-luck pitcher,” the significance of the Dodgers’ record win total in a simulated season, whether baseball history would be better if it extended even further into the past, how quickly preferred mechanics can change among major leaguers, and how teams could incorporate a pitcher like Trevor Bauer who wants to work on three days’ rest.

Audio intro: Van Halen, "Hear About it Later"
Audio outro: Animal Collective, "On Delay"

Link to thread about Utz
Link to B-Ref’s simulated season results
Link to FanGraphs playoff coverage

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

I, personally, have never hit a home run in Dodgers Stadium. After the past two days, however, I might be one of the few baseball-adjacent people who can’t say that. The A’s and Astros engaged in another slugfest in the early innings today, launching five home runs in the first five frames of Game 2 of the ALDS. Combine those with the six they hit yesterday, and it’s a bad time to be a cardboard cutout in the Chavez Ravine outfield.

Khris Davis got the party started in the second by pouncing on a hanging curveball. He got under it a bit, and George Springer camped where he expected the ball to land. That worked out like this:

He needn’t have worried, however, because Dodgers Stadium gave to both sides today. With a runner aboard in the top of the next inning, Springer got a belt-high curveball of his own and didn’t miss:

Read the rest of this entry »