Baseball in Korea and Taiwan is in full swing — my apologies for the pun — and a third major professional league is set to join them on Friday when NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) starts up its delayed 2020 season. The novel coronavirus has shown that it has little care for the vagaries of baseball scheduling, so as with other leagues, NPB will naturally play a shortened slate.

Unlike a certain other league – it would be far too gauche of me to identify it by name – NPB is trying to fit as much baseball into the summer as it can. By virtue of being able to start in June, each team is scheduled to play 125 games, with the main change being the suspension of interleague play. (Normally, each team plays three home games against three teams in the opposite league, and three road games against the remaining cross-league competition.)

So with Japanese baseballing imminent, it’s time to run the ZiPS projections for the league, as I did last month with the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO). With a league closer to MLB in quality, slightly better data, and more personal experience working with said data, I’m more confident about ZiPS’ NPB projections than the KBO ones.

Without interleague play, both leagues will have .500 records, helpful for the Central League, which has lost the interleague battle against the Pacific League 14 times in 15 seasons. Ties aren’t something ZiPS normally has to account for, but after doing research on the topic, I’ve found they’re even more random than one-run wins in MLB (as we all would have expected). On to the projections!

Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley discuss Rob Manfred’s rapid flip-flop from expressing 100 percent confidence about an MLB season starting to expressing a lack of confidence in an MLB season starting, his ultimatum to the union, how Manfred has floundered at a pivotal time and how that failure effects his future, how some owners’ reluctance to start the season is hurting themselves and the sport, how COVID complicates plans to play, the worst-case scenario for the league, the odds of a season, and more. Then they answer listener emails about how to support players while still supporting teams, expanding the division series, the impact of future NBA seasons overlapping longer with MLB’s, whether players could form their own league, teams’ incentive to win in 2020, and whether and why pulled homers are the most aesthetically pleasing, plus Stat Blasts about players with the least playing time by number of years of service time and an unsurpassed feat by Mark Buehrle.

Audio intro: Courtney Barnett, "Crippling Self-Doubt and a General Lack of Confidence"
Audio outro: Drive-By Truckers, "Grievance Merchants"

Link to The Athletic on the latest in MLB’s big dispute
Link to Craig Edwards on Manfred’s latest comments
Link to Jeff Passan on Manfred
Link to Ken Rosenthal on Manfred
Link to Stat Blast song cover by John Choiniere and Lucas Apostoleris
Link to Lucas’s debut album
Link to service time spreadsheet
Link to starters with most games facing the minimum
Link to Rany on Buehrle

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

On Saturday, after rejecting Major League Baseball’s latest offer, the Major League Baseball Players Association agreed to abide by the threat MLB had floated at the beginning of the month and allow the commissioner to set the schedule. In response, MLB sent a letter to the MLBPA indicating it would not set a schedule unless the players agreed not to file a grievance over a shortened season. Before looking at why MLB might be taking this approach, let’s take a look at how we got here. It’s been almost a week since the first day of the amateur draft, when Rob Manfred spoke to Tom Verducci about the start of the season on MLB Network. Early in the interview, Verducci asked about the possibility of imposing a shorter schedule:

Tom Verducci: Obviously, you want an agreement. In the absence of an agreement, according to the March 26 agreement with the players the owners believe that you as commissioner can schedule a season that “uses the best efforts to play as many games as possible”. How close are you to that point, how many games are we talking about.

Rob Manfred: I remain committed to the idea that the best thing for our sport is to reach a negotiated agreement with the MLBPA that plays as many games as possible for our fans. We do have rights under the March 26 agreement and there could become a point in time where we’ll exercise those rights.

Manfred went on to say the two sides were “very, very close” on health and safety protocols. After he also indicated that finishing the season in November was not practical due to a potential second wave of the coronavirus and the difficulty of moving the playoffs around for television partners, Verducci got to the heart of the matter and asked whether there would be baseball this season.

Tom Verducci: Negotiations are complicated. Simple question for you. Can you guarantee we will have major league baseball in 2020?

Rob Manfred: We are going to play baseball in 2020. 100%. If it has to be under the March 26 agreement if we get to that point in the calendar, so be it, but one way or the other we are playing major league baseball.

Two days later, MLB provided the players with its “Final Counterproposal for 72 games,” along with a letter from deputy commissioner Dan Halem to union negotiator Bruce Meyer complaining that players were not entitled to pay to begin with and that MLB could have opted to not have negotiated a deal in March at all. The letter did not mention the owners’ fears of the players suing for full salaries in the event of a partial season, the elimination of the roughly $20 million in minimum postseason bonus pools, the relaxation of debt rules that might otherwise have opened up the CBA completely, or the $400 million in amateur signing bonuses that were deferred or eliminated. The March agreement was not an act of generosity, but rather a pact between two sophisticated parties trying to reach the best deal possible. And as Manfred noted, the March agreement gives the commissioner certain rights, including the right to set the schedule. Read the rest of this entry »

2:02

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chat. It looks like we’re in a dark place today as far as the 2020 season is concerned, but I’m hearing a bit more optimism this morning (and afternoon) than I did last night, mainly because Manfred and the owners have put themselves in an untenable position and something has to give.

2:04	Jay Jaffe: I still think it’s above 50%. There’s just too much money for it not to happen, but man, getting a season off the ground has been and will continue to be ugly

2:10

Jay Jaffe: Been thinking about this a lot, and in some ways, it’s like trying to choose your least favorite child from among two failsons. That’s the easy answer. The reality is that one has to remember that the commissioner isn’t an independent operator or neutral party. He serves as the representative of the owners, and so implicit in his actions is that he has the backing of three-quarters of them needed to stay in power. For all of the dark places that Bud Selig took baseball, he was very skilled at marshaling a consensus among his fellow owners, satisfying their very disparate needs among big- and small-market owners, labor hawks and doves, et cetera, which is why he was able to stay in power so long and effect so much change. Manfred doesn’t seem to have that knack, at least to the same degree, but it may also be true that he’s working with a worse set of owners — ones that realize they can take their teams into the tank without worrying about whether they’ll make a profit, and so on.

Read the rest of this entry »

I know what you’re thinking — the most recent World Series won’t have the same wild tactical decisions that were so common in the early 90s. You’re right! That’s true! What am I going to do, though — leave this series unfinished? Not likely. Today, we’re looking to the recent past.

2017

First things first: you can’t bring up this World Series without mentioning the Astros’ sign stealing scandal. I don’t think it had any effect on their tactics, so this is the only time I’ll address it — but yes, before you head down to the comments to let me know about it, I’m aware.

Lineup-wise, both of these teams knew how to set things up. Alex Bregman batted second for the Astros, with Justin Turner filling that role for the Dodgers. They were each arguably the best hitter on their team — modern lineup construction in action.

Both managers used appropriately short leashes on their pitchers. The Astros’ could have been even shorter — they let Dallas Keuchel face the top of the righty-stacked Dodgers lineup a third time in Game 1, and Turner punished him with a two-run homer. Clayton Kershaw went a similar length — one fewer pitch, one more out, and the same number of batters faced — but escaped with only one run allowed. That was the game — Turner’s home run provided the margin of victory.

Both teams went further in Game 2 — Rich Hill faced only 18 batters and Justin Verlander faced 21. Verlander’s last three batters nearly cost the Astros the game — like Keuchel before him, he gave up a two-run shot to the Dodgers’ number two hitter the third time through — Corey Seager this time. With Hill providing only four innings of work, the Dodgers needed a two-inning save from Kenley Jansen — reasonable with an off day to follow. Unfortunately for them, Jansen coughed up two runs, and after two extra innings, the series was tied. Read the rest of this entry »

Major League Baseball might not be into paying its players, but we on the OOTP Brewers are. Let’s offer some contract extensions! Read the rest of this entry »

The top of the seventh, and the Cardinals lead the Marlins7-6. Hard-earned, after getting out ahead early, 3-0, before ceding six runs, unable to muster a response; they were saving it all for the top of the sixth, when they got them all back — and another for insurance. Not enough insurance, though, not when you’re still trying to win — still, even though there is nothing tomorrow. Nothing the day after that, and nothing the day after that, either.

They’ve been holding up the signs: SAVE OUR SPORT. OWNER$ WIN, PLAYER$ WIN, FANS LOSE. The Cards send a pinch-hitter to the plate to lead it off: Gerald Young, in his 16th game with the big-league club. He is 29 years old. This will be the final game of his major league career.

***

Gerald Young — born in Honduras, raised in California — was signed by the Mets the same day as Doc Gooden. Gooden was the fifth pick overall in the 1982 draft; Young was drafted in the fifth round. Both were selected out of high school. Unlike Gooden, though, Young never ended up playing a single game for the Mets. His three-year career in their system was distinguished only by its anonymity. After the 1984 season, the Mets sent him and two Players to be Named Later to the Astros in exchange for Ray Knight, who had requested a trade.

In the Astros’ minor-league system, no longer a teenager, Young improved steadily. Every year, he advanced a level. His OPS climbed. He stole 54 bases in Double-A. His work in the outfield began to draw notice, too.

Young began the 1987 season in Tucson with the Triple-A Toros, the youngest player on the team’s roster, “scared and nervous” to make the jump to Triple-A. He quickly became the PCL’s stolen-base leader while hitting better than he ever had before. He thrived under the mentorship of Eric Bullock, then a veteran of the Houston farm, five years his senior. An “ooh-and-aah” player, the Arizona Daily Star called him: a thrill-seeker who loved the tension of the chase more than anything else, a dazzling young man with a bright smile and a twinkle in his eye. Read the rest of this entry »

Kendall Graveman has lived and died by his sinker since breaking into the big leagues in 2014. (He’s also spent a lot of time in injured-list purgatory, but that’s another story.) The 29-year-old right-hander has thrown his signature pitch nearly 60 percent of the time over 446 career innings, all but a handful of them with the Oakland A’s. Graveman is now with the Seattle Mariners, who inked him to a free agent contract last November.

This past March, I approached the Mississippi State product in Mariners camp for an overdue discussion about his sinker. It had been nearly five years since we’d talked pitching. That back-and-forth focused mostly on his cutter, with a glimpse at his approach and TrackMan usage sprinkled in for good measure. We only briefly touched on the pitch that got him to the big leagues. The time had come to rectify that earlier omission.

———

David Laurila: When did you first learn to throw a sinker?

Kendall Graveman: “There’s a coach back home who used to work at Central Alabama Community College, and he came over and was teaching the pitching aspect at a camp I was attending. This was in the small town of Alexander City, and I was probably 12 years old at the time.

“A two-seamer was kind of a different — it’s something I‘d never seen — but I was able to pick the ball up and make a move. Ever since then, I’ve been able to manipulate it. Going through high school, I was a groundball pitcher — I was the same guy I am now — and didn’t strike out a lot of guys. Over the years I’ve been able to develop that pitch more, and have been able to create early contact, soft contact, and groundballs.”

Laurila: How does one go about manipulating a sinker? Read the rest of this entry »

Everyone likes to compare young, phenom centerfielders to Willie Mays and/or Mickey Mantle. Mike Trout is, of course, the most deserving, but people have also made those comparisons to Ken Griffey Jr., Ronald Acuña Jr. and Juan Soto, Andruw Jones, Josh Hamilton, and many others.

In many cases, these types of comparisons are either early, ambitious, or downright wild. Josh Hamilton was only Mickey Mantle in terms of his personal struggles; Ed Rogers was just a bit worse than Alex Rodriguez. At one point, though, the Mays/Mantle comparisons were fresh, and long before it became a cliche, a young outfielder named César Cedeño was compared to Mays by by future Hall of Fame manager Leo Durocher.

Durocher was not one to be overly sentimental; Cedeño’s early performances did evoke Mays. At age 21, Cedeño broke out for the Astros, hitting .320/.385/.537 (wRC+ of 163) while winning a Gold Glove as a center fielder, his first of five. Rather than falling prey to the dreaded regression to the mean, he basically did that again the following season, hitting .320/.376/.537 (wRC+ of 155). There were obviously no wins above replacement stats to look at in 1972, FanGraphs and other sites like it being decades away from existence, but we can look back at Cedeño’s phenom years with even more certainty about his place in baseball’s pantheon than they could at the time. Read the rest of this entry »

The OOTP Brewers’ season has reached a classic lull in activity. The early rush of figuring out which parts on the team fit and which needed to be replaced has hit pause; the starting rotation has stabilized, injured hitters are returning, and a few trades shored up the team’s weakest points. The draft, the next big event on the calendar, has passed as well, and all of our draft picks look likely to sign. With more than a month remaining before the trade deadline, we’ve hit a bit of a transaction dead zone.

Games are still being played during this period, of course. On that front, the team is chugging merrily along; after taking two out of three games from the Reds, we stand at 41-30, three games ahead of a surprising Pittsburgh team:

Our run differential continues to creep in the right direction, even after starting in the basement. Christian Yelich and Brock Holt are still mashing; Yelich sits at 4.9 WAR despite missing the last series with a mild shoulder strain (seriously mild — he suffered it while throwing the ball and will be back to full strength by tomorrow). Holt is still crushing, despite legitimate questions about how real his start was; he had a 122 wRC+ in April, peaked at 163 in May, and is sitting at a totally acceptable 112 for June.

Those are the boring facts of the situation: the team’s doing well, and there’s not much reason for us to tinker with it. Honestly, though, that’s boring. We aren’t running the Brewers so that we can clap politely from the GM’s excellent seats while we watch the team motor through the NL Central. We’re here to leave our mark, at least a little bit; we don’t need to finish the year with our five best players gone and Gleyber Torres playing second base, or anything like that, but it would be nice to make a change or two. Read the rest of this entry »