This morning, we considered the catcher position. Now, we turn our attention to the shortstops.

Hello! This isn’t going to be a long intro, because you know what you’re getting into here. What has been called a golden age for the shortstop position continued apace in 2019, with shortstops batting a collective .326/.445/.772 — a 100 wRC+. This was despite several luminaries, such as Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa, having their playing time limited by injury. There were delightful surprises from longtime players (the ascension of Marcus Semien). There were promising rookie campaigns (the arrival of Bo Bichette). And there were, of course, just plain great seasons from players who are now the usual suspects: Xander Bogaerts, Trevor Story, Javier Báez, et al. Even when plumbing the depths of this list, there are interesting progressions to follow: One can consider the strange season Willy Adames had for the Rays, or the was-it-a-breakout from the Pirates’ Kevin Newman. It’s a fascinating time for the position! Let’s get into it. Read the rest of this entry »

After Dan Szymborski and Craig Edwards surveyed the state of second and third base yesterday, our positional power rankings continue with a look at catcher.

Catcher is a hard position to project even at the best of times — though we are getting better at it — and that difficulty is compounded this year by a short season and the availability of ever-more roster spots at which to stash a backup or two. Taking those complications together, I’d encourage you to take these rankings with a dollop of salt. There’s value in taking a close look at the particular mix of players each team is bringing into this campaign, but it’s probably best understood as an effort to document the catching situation league-wide, bucket teams into tiers, and sketch out the rough outlines of teams’ depth at this position. As such, try not to dwell overly long on the ordinal rankings or the team WAR figures that fuel them; the differences are quite small in some cases.

So what is the league-wide situation at catcher? Given the continued presence of true standouts like Yasmani Grandal and J.T. Realmuto it isn’t all bad, but I think it’s fair to characterize the overall situation as a bit of an ebb tide. As recently as a few years ago, we were treated to career seasons from the likes of Yan Gomes, Rene Rivera, Russell Martin, Buster Posey, and Jonathan Lucroy, with Salvador Perez and Yadier Molina not far off their peaks as well. Now, Martin is unsigned, Posey has opted out, and the rest of the players who were so recently putting up five-win seasons are shadows of their former selves. Catchers as a group generated just 54.3 WAR last year, which, while a five-win improvement over 2018’s figure, was lower than any other season in the last 12. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about James Paxton’s unappetizing approach to chili, Atlanta signing Yasiel Puig, weirdness and whimsy in Summer Camp intrasquad games, the history of the catcher (and umpire) mask camera, odd-sounding fake crowd noise, players planning to wear masks in regular-season games, umpires opting out of the season, and a potential five-man infield, then (22:56) preview the 2020 Houston Astros with the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome, and the 2020 Seattle Mariners (1:09:35) with the Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish.

Audio intro: Hinds, "Chili Town"
Audio interstitial 1: The Jazz Butcher, "Bath of Bacon"
Audio interstitial 2: The Hold Steady, "Banging Camp"
Audio outro: Levon and the Hawks, "Bacon Fat"

Link to Lindor somersault video
Link to story about “Chico”
Link to photos of Harper at third base
Link to video of early 2000s catcher/ump mask footage
Link to new catcher mask cam footage
Link to more new catcher mask cam footage
Link to new ump mask cam footage
Link to Chandler on the Astros questioning MLB’s testing process
Link to Chandler on Astros players’ coronavirus concerns
Link to Chandler on Díaz’s mask wearing
Link to Chandler on the Astros’ DH options
Link to Chandler on Whitley
Link to Chandler on Verlander
Link to Ben on foreign substances and spin rates
Link to Ryan on how the Mariners have avoided testing issues
Link to Ryan on the Mariners’ youth movement timeline
Link to Ryan on Seager’s mask wearing
Link to Ryan on Kelenic
Link to FanGraphs’ Mariners prospect rankings

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2:02

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon folks and welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chat. Apologies in advance for what’s likely to be a shortened one this week, as I have to bolt to pick up my daughter at some point.  I’ve been pretty buried in Positional Power Rankings lately. My first one, tackling the first basemen — much of which was written before the pandemic — went up Monday: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-positional-power-rankings-first-base/ , and I’ll have right field up Friday.

2:06

Jay Jaffe: Well, the steroid era already turned 500 homers into a milestone of questionable value; where attaining it once meant virtually automatic enshrinement, now a player has to have reached it almost without a hint of scandal. There have long been 400-homer players who didn’t come close to sniffing the Hall, even before PEDs were on the scene, such as Dave Kingman. As always, i advocate taking a more complete look at a player in terms of evaluating him for Hall fitness than just one number.

2:06	Jay Jaffe: Not particularly — it’s pretty common for TJ returnees to struggle with control and command initially. So long as he’s pain free, I think he’ll come around.

Read the rest of this entry »

Today on FanGraphs Live, join me to recap everything that has gone on this year up until the All-Star break. We will be joined by commissioner Brad Johnson, who can answer all your questions about online leagues, our online league, and why he’s batting Breyvic Valera leadoff. Read the rest of this entry »

Today puts a neat bow on the with-no-live-baseball portion of the Out Of The Park season. Next week, there will be actual live baseball games. This week, it’s the OOTP All-Star Break, which means there won’t be any games all week. The All-Star Break is the traditional first-half/second-half delineation, so everything is lining up perfectly, a fake-baseball-video-game Stonehenge.

In the game, on the other hand, not everything is going according to plan. Last week, Christian Yelich strained his oblique, an injury that will keep him out of commission until the end of August. This week, we’ve relinquished the NL Central lead. Not to the jerk Cubs, or the flavor of the week Reds, or even Milwaukee’s long-term nemesis, the Cardinals. The Pirates — the Pirates! — have blown past us and now sit atop the division.

It’s not as though this came out of nowhere. They’ve been just off the pace for the better part of a month now, lurking in second place keyed by a robust pitching staff and just enough offense. They haven’t avoided the injury bug completely, but it’s been less harsh; closer Nick Burdi recently tore his labrum, Jarrod Dyson is on the shelf with a muscle strain, and Chris Archer missed his most recent turn in the rotation. Despite those injuries, however, the Jolly Roger has been raised:

It’s tempting to view these passing of the torch moments — the pursuing team tracking down their long-standing tormentor and seizing the reins — as final. A king has his reign, and then he’s deposed. It doesn’t work that way. We could be back in first place by the first game after the break and never give it up. We could trade the lead back and forth for the balance of the year. Any number of things could happen.

In other Brewers news this week, Brett Anderson, recently restored to the starting rotation, is on the IL with a dead arm. That’s his third trip to the IL this year, not to mention a four-day stretch earlier this season when he had a dead arm that didn’t require IL time. Oh yeah — he also has a 12.24 ERA. The time may have come to move on. Read the rest of this entry »

You’ve read the intro. You’ve read about first basemen and second basemen. Now, as our positional power rankings continue, it’s time to examine the state of third base.

If you scroll through the first half-dozen names on this list, you might note that there are a lot of good third basemen. Of the 10 position players projected for at least 2.0 WAR this year, four are third basemen. In fact, the hot corner accounts for six of the top 14 projected position players, while the top 10 third basemen all rank among the top 30 position players overall. There are so many good third basemen, it probably isn’t useful to quibble too much about each team’s exact placement in the rankings below. It’s a tightly bunched group with a lot more positives than negatives. It’s also a veteran-laden group, but young players like Yoán Moncada and Rafael Devers provide considerable hope for the position’s future. Read the rest of this entry »

On Monday, Jay Jaffe kicked off our positional power rankings series by evaluating the league’s first basemen. If you need a refresher on the series, Meg Rowley wrote a handy explainer. Today, we stay on the infield and turn our attention to second base.

Second base has become a decidedly unsexy position. Teams are more willing than ever to keep players at shortstop, leaving the keystone increasingly populated by the guys with weak arms, not enough glove for short, or not enough bat for third base. Throughout history, shortstops have generally hit worse than second basemen, which makes sense given that short is the tougher defensive position. But in 2018, after years of slowly gaining ground, shortstops outhit second basemen, with a 97 wRC+ vs. 95 at second; in 2019, they did it again (100 vs. 96).

It hasn’t helped the position that there’s been a talent drain. Chase Utley, Ben Zobrist, Ian Kinsler, and Brandon Phillips are all gone, Robinson Canó, Brian Dozier, and Jason Kipnis are nearly so, and it’s an open question whether Dustin Pedroia plays again. Only José Altuve is all that is left standing of the elite second basemen from the 2010s. Meanwhile, there are only seven second basemen with a future value of 50 or better on THE BOARD, compared to nine at third base and 14 at shortstop. Inevitably, some of the shortstops will end up as second basemen, but that’s kind of the point; the shortstops that shift will likely be the ones who didn’t make the cut at short. Players like Gavin Lux and Nick Madrigal will provide new blood, but they’re likely at least three or four years away from their peak years. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Below is my latest in a series discussing each team’s 60-man player pool with a focus on prospects. Previous installments of these rundowns, including potentially relevant context for discussion, can be found here:

AL East and Intro
NL East
AL Central
NL Central

Arizona Diamondbacks

Prospect List / Depth Chart

Remember that, Greinke trade aside, the Diamondbacks have been operating like buyers for the last little while, and only four of their projected regulars/rotation members are under 29. It’s unknowable whether the shortened, but more condensed season will be good or bad for their veteran’s productivity and health, but the DH spot will probably help in that regard. It means little breathers for Kole Calhoun and David Peralta, and extra at-bats for Kevin Cron and Jake Lamb without the defensive drawbacks.

Some of the same benefits could result from rostering Daulton Varsho, especially if Carson Kelly gets dinged and suddenly 36-year-old Stephen Vogt and John Hicks are platooning. Varsho could caddy for any or all of Vogt, Calhoun and Peralta, keeping the older guys fresh while getting plenty of reps so his development isn’t stifled even though he’s technically playing a bench role. This is the type of move that might help Arizona catch Wild Card lightning in a 60-game bottle, but I don’t think their current catching depth allows for it right now. The club only has four backstops in their pool, and even if they eventually add spring NRI Dominic Miroglio they still have fewer catchers than most teams and probably not enough for sticking three on the big league active roster. Perhaps Wyatt Mathieson will put on the gear at the campsite.

The next-highest ranked prospect likely to debut this year is righty J.B. Bukauskas. Some of the Arizona bullpen pieces need to really pop if the team is going to compete (perhaps Archie Bradley truly returns to form, or Yoan López takes a leap, or Hector Rondón bounces back, etc.) and Bukauskas has the stuff to be part of a contingent that helps win coin-flip games. Aside from some other backend/middle relief prospects who might play a role this year (Jon Duplantier and Taylor Widener could usurp Merrill Kelly as the fifth starter, and Kevin Ginkel is a bullpen lock) and a couple likely role players perhaps debuting (bat-first infielder Andy Young and bat-only 1B/DH types Seth Beer and Pavin Smith), the other, more exciting D-backs prospects are young guys just getting reps in camp (Alek Thomas, Corbin Carroll, Blake Walston, Geraldo Perdomo, Levi Kelly, Luis Frias). It’s possible the roster clocks of Josh Green (who doesn’t have to be 40-man’d until 2021) or even 2020 draftee Bryce Jarvis are punched early but Arizona would really need to be in the thick of the postseason picture for that to happen. It’s more likely spot-starter types Jeremy Beasley and Keury Mella are called upon if they need to dip into the campsite for starters. Read the rest of this entry »