The Minnesota Twins had a tremendous 2019 regular season. They set a franchise record for wins, set a major league record for home runs, and did it all with a core of exciting hitters who will be back in 2020. If every season could go like the 2019 regular season, the Twins would be sitting pretty.

Of course, it wasn’t all sunshine and lollipops. A midseason swoon briefly dropped them behind the Cleveland Indians, who remain their biggest intradivision competition heading into 2020. Their starting rotation, so solid top to bottom in 2019, wasn’t as locked up as the hitters — four of the five pitchers who made the most starts either reached free agency or had contract options declined. And of course, they got drummed out of the playoffs in three nasty, brutish, but most definitely not short games with the Yankees.

Earlier this week, the Twins made two moves that help address those three areas of concern from the 2019 season. They signed Rich Hill and Homer Bailey to one year contracts totaling $10 million ($3 million for Hill, $7 million for Bailey), though Hill’s contract has reachable playing time incentives that could see it reach $9.5 million. Let’s cover the way these moves helped through the lens of the three areas that felled them last year. Read the rest of this entry »

In the sixth installment of a special, seven-episode series on the past, present, and future of advanced analysis in non-baseball sports, Ben Lindbergh talks to Motorsports Analytics founder and The Athletic writer David Smith about NASCAR and then former Garmin-Sharp and Team Sky analyst Robby Ketchell about cycling (47:48), touching on the origins of sabermetrics-style analysis in each sport, the major challenges, big breakthroughs, and overturned misconceptions, the early adopters, the cutting-edge stats and tech, the level of acceptance within the game, the effects on the spectator experience, the parallels with baseball, and more, plus a postscript on Bucky Dent, Rich Hill, the Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method, and ESPN Bat Track.

Audio intro: Grateful Dead, "The Race is On"
Audio interstitial: Yo La Tengo, "The Race is on Again"
Audio outro: George Harrison, "Faster"

Link to David Smith’s archive at The Athletic
Link to Motorsports Analytics site
Link to Positive Regression Podcast
Link to David’s 2019 analytical takeaways
Link to David on Erik Jones
Link to David on driver stat darlings
Link to David on crew chief stat darlings
Link to David on metrics that do or don’t matter
Link to article on Andrew Maness and NASCAR
Link to article about Robby and Team Sky
Link to article on Team Sky’s use of data
Link to article on big data in racing
Link to article about technology in racing
Link to article about Chris Froome’s power data
Link to article about technology in racing
Link to article about using power data to detect doping
Link to article about Team Sky and doping
Link to another article about Team Sky and doping
Link to article about Robby and Kipchoge
Link to Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method Wiki
Link to ESPN broadcast featuring Bat Track
Link to story about Bat Track
Link to order The MVP Machine

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In 2019, I once again had the pleasure of interviewing hundreds of people within baseball. Many of their words were shared in my Sunday Notes column, while others came courtesy of the FanGraphs Q&A series, the Learning and Developing a Pitch series, the Talks Hitting series, and a smattering of feature stories. Here is a selection of the best quotes from this year’s conversations, with the bolded lines linking to the pieces they were excerpted from.

——

“I think Abner [Doubleday] when he set this game up a long time ago, he set it up the right way. Boom, boom, boom… Let’s try to keep it normal here. I was a shortstop. If you stuck me on the other side, then I became a second baseman. I played shortstop as a second baseman. That’s confusing. That’s Laurel and Hardy stuff.” — Ron Gardenhire, Detroit Tigers manager, January 2019

“[Gaylord] Perry threw a spitter. He wasn’t going to share that. Not unless I brought $3,000 to the park. That’s how much he said he’d charge to teach me the spitter. I was taking home $8,500. I didn’t want to give him 40% of my yearly take-home pay to try to learn a pitch that very few people can master.” — Steve Stone, Chicago White Sox broadcaster, January 2019 Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh, Sam Miller, and Meg Rowley banter about Kohl Stewart signing with the Orioles, another convoluted Scott Boras quote, and a few of the things Sam learned in 2019 (including Candlestick Park’s “Cardiac Hill,” the sound of Hideki Matsui’s swing, and the disturbing story of “Toothpick” Sam Jones), then discuss what the most defining/enduring baseball memory of 2019 will be.

Audio intro: The Proper Ornaments, "Memories"
Audio outro: Uncle Tupelo, "That Year"

Link to Sam on what he learned in 2019
Link to Death at the Ballpark book
Link to SABR bio for Sam Jones
Link to Sam on the defining baseball memory of 2019
Link to Sam on the defining baseball memories of previous years
Link to Zach Kram on the baseball as an unreliable narrator
Link to Craig Edwards on MLB’s 2019 competitive balance problem
Link to video of Hal Smith homer
Link to order The MVP Machine

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In the fifth installment of a special, seven-episode series on the past, present, and future of advanced analysis in non-baseball sports, Ben Lindbergh talks to ESports One Head of Esports Data Science Tim Sevenhuysen about esports and then Volleymetrics founder Giuseppe Vinci about volleyball (43:25), touching on the origins of sabermetrics-style analysis in each sport, the major challenges, big breakthroughs, and overturned misconceptions, the early adopters, the cutting-edge stats and tech, the level of acceptance within the game, the effects on the spectator experience, the parallels with baseball, and more.

Audio intro: Wild Fire, "Video Warrior"
Audio interstitial: Of Montreal, "Spike the Senses"
Audio outro: Guided By Voices, "The Rally Boys"

Link to Ben on the Wild West of esports stats
Link to Ben on the Overwatch meta
Link to Ben on the Player Impact Rating in Overwatch
Link to Compete on big data in esports
Link to Vice article on Tim
Link to VentureBeat article on Tim
Link to Blitz Esports article on Tim
Link to Tim on founding Shadow
Link to Oracle’s Elixir
Link to Part 1 of Tim’s LCS 2020 power rankings
Link to Part 2 of Tim’s LCS 2020 power rankings
Link to Ben on the origins of StarCraft
Link to Volleymetrics page at Hudl
Link to SportTechie on volleyball analytics
Link to FiveThirtyEight on volleyball metrics
Link to article about BYU volleyball
Link to order The MVP Machine

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In an article that ran here 10 days ago, Chicago White Sox GM Rick Hahn was quoted as saying that people in his role tend to “spend a lot more time trying to unpack what goes wrong, as opposed to examining all the things that may have gone right.”

Danny Mendick fits firmly in the ‘right’ category. Unheralded coming into the 2019 season — he ranked No. 26 on our White Sox Top Prospects list — the 26-year-old infielder earned a September call-up and proceeded to slash .308/.325/.462 in 40 plate appearances. As the season came to a close, Sunday Notes devoted a handful of paragraphs to his Cinderella-like story.

Mendick’s story deserves more than a handful of paragraphs. With the calendar about to flip to 2020, let’s take a longer look at where he came from. We’ll start with words from Hahn.

“When we took him in the 22nd round, as a senior [in 2015], I think we all knew he’d play in the big leagues,” the ChiSox exec said when I inquired about Mendick at the GM Meetings. “OK, no. I’m messing with you. We didn’t know.”

Continuing in a serious vein, Hahn added that the White Sox routinely ask their area scouts to identify “one or two guys they have a gut feel on.” These are draft-eligible players who “maybe don’t stand out from a tools standpoint, or from a notoriety standpoint, but are true baseball players; they play the game the right way and have a positive influence on others.”

In other words, organizational depth. And maybe — just maybe — they will overachieve and one day earn an opportunity at the highest level. Read the rest of this entry »

In the fourth installment of a special, seven-episode series on the past, present, and future of advanced analysis in non-baseball sports, Ben Lindbergh talks to StatsBomb managing editor Mike L. Goodman about soccer and then professor and soccer/rugby analyst Dr. Bill Gerrard about rugby (27:20), touching on the origins of sabermetrics-style analysis in each sport, the major challenges, big breakthroughs, and overturned misconceptions, the early adopters, the cutting-edge stats and tech, the level of acceptance within the game, the effects on the spectator experience, the parallels with baseball, and more.

Audio intro: Slade, "Give Us a Goal"
Audio interstitial: Jim White, "Counting Numbers in the Air"
Audio outro: The Temptations, "Ball of Confusion (That’s What the World is Today)"

Link to StatsBomb
Link to The Double Pivot Podcast
Link to The Double Pivot’s Patreon page
Link to Mike on the adolescence of soccer stats
Link to Mike on soccer’s left-handed-pitcher problem
Link to Neil Paine on soccer analytics
Link to The Numbers Game
Link to Mike on Expected Goals (Part 1)
Link to Mike on Expected Goals (Part 2)
Link to Deadspin on soccer analytics
Link to article on Alex Cora and Liverpool
Link to Bill Gerrard’s Winning With Analytics site
Link to article on Bill’s work with Saracens
Link to article on Bill’s work with Billy Beane
Link to Bill on how analytics are changing rugby
Link to order The MVP Machine

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In the third installment of a special, seven-episode series on the past, present, and future of advanced analysis in non-baseball sports, Ben Lindbergh talks to Tennis Abstract founder Jeff Sackmann about tennis and then Every Shot Counts author Mark Broadie about golf (39:17), touching on the origins of sabermetrics-style analysis in each sport, the major challenges, big breakthroughs, and overturned misconceptions, the early adopters, the cutting-edge stats and tech, the level of acceptance within the game, the effects on the spectator experience, the parallels with baseball, and more.

Audio intro: Simon Love, "Tennis Fan"
Audio interstitial: Caravan, "Golf Girl"
Audio outro: Cream, "Anyone for Tennis"

Link to Tennis Abstract
Link to Tennis Abstract blog
Link to The Tennis Abstract Podcast
Link to Hidden Game of Tennis
Link to Jeff Sackmann’s Hardball Times archive
Link to 2019 ESPN article on analytics in tennis
Link to FiveThirtyEight on aging in tennis
Link to Part 1 of SportTechie tennis analytics series
Link to Part 2 of SportTechie tennis analytics series
Link to Part 3 of SportTechie tennis analytics series
Link to Every Shot Counts
Link to Mark on Tiger’s consecutive rounds streak
Link to video about Mark at The Athletic
Link to 2018 Golf.com feature on Mark
Link to story on analytics use in the Presidents Cup
Link to Golfweek on golf analytics
Link to SportTechie on Shotlink Plus
Link to article about Strokes Gained and pressure
Link to article about technology and golf scores
Link to SI on the golf driving distance debate
Link to order The MVP Machine

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Despite best-laid plans, seemingly nothing went right for the Mets’ bullpen in 2019, and the same can be said for Dellin Betances. The team is hoping both can change their luck in 2020, and earlier this week signed the 31-year-old righty to a one-year, $10.5 million deal that includes both a player option for 2021 and a vesting option for ’22. Though the move is hardly inexpensive or risk-free, it’s a worthwhile gamble on a reliever who prior to missing nearly all of the past season due to injuries spent five years as one of the AL’s best and most dominant with the crosstown Yankees.

After throwing more innings out of the bullpen than any other pitcher from 2014-18 (373.1), Betances didn’t complete a single frame at the major league level in 2019. First, his arrival in camp was delayed by the birth of his son, and after he showed diminished velocity in a March 17 Grapefruit League appearance, he was diagnosed with shoulder impingement. He began the regular season on the injured list, and worked towards a return, but following a rough showing during an April 11 simulated game, he received a cortisone shot for shoulder inflammation, a problem that was soon linked to a bone spur that the Yankees — but not the pitcher — had known about since 2006, the year they drafted him in the eighth round out of a Brooklyn high school. Moved to the 60-day injured list, Betances ramped up towards a return, but renewed soreness led to a June 11 MRI, which revealed that he’d suffered a low-grade lat strain. He finally began a rehab assignment with the Trenton Thunder on September 6, during the Eastern League playoffs, and made three postseason appearances for them before being activated by the Yankees, who hoped that he would augment their bullpen for the postseason.

Betances made his lone major league appearance for the season on September 15, striking out both Blue Jays he faced (Reese McGuire and Brandon Drury) and topping out at 95 mph. After the second strikeout, he did the slightest of celebratory hops and landed awkwardly on his left foot. Watch here around the 15-second mark:

Read the rest of this entry »