Archive for David Price

Heading into spring training, it looked as though there were five clear favorites for division titles plus the prospect of an interesting battle in the American League West. As in any year, injuries were always likely to have some kind of influence on those various divisional races. Now, still at the beginning of March, it’s possible that such an injury has already occurred: according to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe, Red Sox left-hander David Price is seeking a second opinion on his elbow from Dr. James Andrews. The phrase “second opinion” combined with “James Andrews” isn’t frequently associated with ideal outcomes, and the Red Sox “are not optimistic” about the situation, per Jeff Passan.

If Price does indeed undergo Tommy John surgery and misses the 2017 season, the big advantage possessed by the Red Sox over the rest of the division would diminish considerably. Looking at the projections that include Price, the Red Sox profile as one of the very best teams in baseball, according to our Depth Chart Projections.

These are the top-17 teams by projected WAR — a group that includes all five AL East teams. Unsurprisingly, Jeff Sullivan noted just yesterday that the AL East looks to be the toughest division in baseball. David Price is currently projected for 4.7 WAR, seventh-highest total in baseball, although not highest on his team, as the Red Sox’ trade for Chris Sale would still leave the Red Sox with a clear ace and front-of-the-rotation starter. Entering the spring, Boston’s staff was heavy on the top and very light on depth. When Eno Sarris examined starting pitching depth recently, the Red Sox were near the bottom of the league.

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A quick check of the pitching leaderboards for qualified starters reveals an unsettling fact for the Red Sox: David Price has the second-worst ERA in baseball. Cue the alarm bells! The Sox paid for an ace, and instead, they’ve gotten the exact opposite of an ace — as far as outcomes are concerned, at least. Seven starts into the season, some element of worry has to be merited, right? The answer is yes, of course, because an ERA of almost seven for a No. 1 starter after over a month of games has to be worrying. Price has been terrible, and if you’re worrying about him or would like to, that’s probably merited. The reason why we’re here is to look into whether his performance thus far is grounds to for worry in the future, as well: though Price can’t get any of his clunkers back from the past seven starts, we can certainly look into whether those clunkers might presage future clunkers.

First, let’s start with the bad news, because it’s always better to end with good news. The bad news has been right there in front of us in every single one of Price’s starts this season, flashed up on a board in the stadium or on our TV screens during every pitch: his velocity is down. Way down. Lowest it’s ever been. That’s worrisome not only because velocity loss leads to a smaller margin of error, but also because velocity loss is the most visible indicator of injury. The drop captured in the red box in the chart below — depicting Price’s velocity by month from 2011 to 2016 — ought usually to inspire some concern (chart courtesy of Brooks Baseball):

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The Red Sox just paid an enormous amount of money for the baseball-throwing services of David Price. The deal makes sense, as Boston struggled last year in that department, and now they’ve basically ensured, barring injury or anomalous performance, that they’ll struggle less in that department next season. Price is a an exceptional pitcher. That was a well-established fact before he was handed $30 million a year — dating back to his breakout 2010 campaign with the Rays, in fact. However, this past season provided glimpses at a repertoire that might facilitate the next stage of David Price, Pitcher, and it was centered around the use of his cutter and the improvement of his changeup.

Jeff went over the changes in Price’s cutter usage in late September, but the main premise is this: Price started throwing more cutters, throwing them harder, and locating them further inside to right-handed hitters toward the end of last season. As we’ll see, that impacted how successful his changeup was in different parts of the zone.

Now, the changeup: we often hear about how difficult they’re to learn. They’re a “feel” pitch, and we’re told that, because of that, they need a lot of work — work that usually comes from experience. It takes confidence to throw any type of pitch well, and when confidence is lacking in a particular offering, the pitcher is reluctant to throw it very often. This is a little different for left-handed pitchers: as Eno pointed out in this piece, left-handed starters throw changeups 65% more often than right-handers do. Lefties inherently have a difficult job because the majority of hitters are right-handed; to combat this, they throw more changeups, the pitch with the best reverse platoon split.

Price has always thrown a changeup, going back to his debut in the league. And, fitting the narrative that changeups are found with more experience, he’s thrown them with increased usage every season of his career. Take a look at his pitch usage every season since 2010:

In 2015, he cracked the 20% mark with his changeup usage, and he’s now transitioned firmly away from using his curveball as his main secondary pitch. In truth, he had already transitioned away from that approach beginning in 2013, but this year marked not only another increase in usage, but a few other adjustments that merit attention from us.

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Last week, I explored the rumor of Matt Harvey’s new curveball, and what it might mean in the future given his curve’s effectiveness in 2013. Despite the lowest movement in the league — both horizontally and vertically — Harvey had the 12th-most successful curveball in baseball by pitch run value that year, pointing to the incredible strength of his other pitches (especially his fastball) in setting up his curve. Today, we’re going to focus on more curveball news, this time coming from the man who opposed Harvey on Friday in the Grapefruit League.

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It seems like a foregone conclusion that David Price won’t be with the Tampa Bay Rays when spring training begins next year. In previous seasons, Tampa Bay has dealt Edwin Jackson and Matt Garza as the team entered costly years in the arbitration process. The Rays also traded James Shields to address team depth, despite his rather affordable contract, which means there’s plenty of history to suggest a move is in Price’s future.

Some of the statements put out there in recent weeks include concerns about Price’s declining velocity, about diminishing returns on value and whether the team can afford to keep the pitcher for even one more season. There’s no masking the fact Price threw with less velocity in 2013, even after returning from a stint on the disabled list while he recovered from a triceps strain. Price returned from the DL intent on becoming a more efficient pitcher, and he did so with aplomb. In fact, only Cliff Lee threw a higher percentage of strikes in the season’s final three months.

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A check of the traditional metrics suggests that American League Cy Young Award runner-up David Price has regressed this season. After just six losses last season, he has already taken the loss in five of his 13 starts. His 3.35 ERA is still good, but up more than a half run over his 2010 mark of 2.72.

Price has been roughed up a few times this season. Most notably on 4/29 against the Los Angeles Angels when  he gave up five runs on 12 hits in 4.1 innings. In May, he allowed five runs in back to back starts (5/16 v. Yankees, 5/21 v. Marlins). Those brief showings of mortality actually had some in the Tampa Bay area asking the question – what is wrong with David Price?

The answer is nothing. In fact, Price is a better pitcher than he was a season ago. While he was great last season, his peripheral stats were not in line with his win/loss record or ERA. His 3.42 FIP and 3.83 xFIP were both good, but not second-best pitcher in the league good. His “luck” categories, meanwhile, showed some favorable results, although nothing to suggest fluke or steep regression.

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Welcome to the first edition of the Amateur Draft Reviews. This series will review the past three drafts for each organization for interesting facts and trends. It also serves as a preview for the upcoming MLB Amateur Draft, which takes place on June 9 and 10.

2008 Draft Slot: 1st overall
Top Pick: Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia high school
Best Pick: Tim Beckham
Keep an Eye On: Jake Jefferies, C, UC Davis (3rd round)
Notes: Jake Jefferies, a left-handed hitting catcher, has hit well in pro ball and has a good approach. Defensively, the only real question mark is his average arm. He is currently playing in A-ball. Tim Beckham’s older brother Jeremy Beckham was drafted in the 17th round and they are playing together in 2009 at A-ball.

2007 Draft Slot: 1st overall
Top Pick: David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt University
Best Pick: David Price
Worst Pick: Will Kline, RHP, University of Mississippi (2nd round)
Notes: You can’t fault Will Kline for being listed as the worst pick; he had shoulder surgery almost immediately after signing. His last pitch was thrown in 2007 and he was winless in nine starts. The team scored big by finding prep pitchers Nick Barnese (California high school) in the third round and Matthew Moore (New Mexico high school) in the eighth round.

2006 Draft Slot: 3rd overall
Top Pick: Evan Longoria, 3B, Long Beach State
Best Pick: Evan Longoria
Worst Pick: Josh Butler, RHP, University of San Diego (2nd round)
Notes: Perhaps overworked while leading the staff (which included Brian Matusz) at San Diego, Josh Butler has struggled to stay healthy and consistent in pro ball. He was traded to Milwaukee for Gabe Gross (a former 1st round pick of the Jays) in 2008. OF Desmond Jennings (Mississippi CC) looks like a steal in the 10th round. RHP Heath Rollins (Winthrop U) was a nice find – especially value-wise – in the 11th round.

2009 Draft Slot: 30th
Draft Preference (2006-08): None, the club does not favor college or prep players
MLB Club Need: Relievers, catcher
Organizational Need: First, second and third basemen, Left-handed pitching
Organizational Strength: Outfielders, Shortstops, Right-handed pitching
Notes: It will be interesting to see how Tampa Bay does with one of the last picks of the first round after being at the top of the draft for the life of the franchise. The club has always had a knack for finding solid pitching in the later rounds so that’s a good sign. You can point to TB’s high draft slot as a reason for drafting so well in the first round (David Price, Evan Longoria) but a lot of club’s have buckled under the pressure of owning a top-five pick.

David Price has been very, very good this season.

It might have seemed like a foregone conclusion that the 2007 first overall pick would dominate in professional baseball but quite a few recent No. 1 overall picks have not been that great, including Matt Bush, Brian Bullington and even Luke Hochevar.

Price did not pitch after being selected in 2007 due to ongoing negotiations and he was slowed early on in 2008 by injury woes. The 6’6” southpaw began his season in the High-A Florida State League and toyed with the less-advanced hitters, allowing 28 hits in 34 innings with seven walks and 37 strikeouts.

Price was then promoted to Double-A where he has not missed a beat by allowing 42 hits in 57 innings with 16 walks and 55 strikeouts. With runners in scoring position, Double-A hitters are “hitting” just .118 suggesting he could have some immediate success in a big league bullpen if the Rays wanted to limit his innings this season. Overall, he is 11-0 in his pro career with a 1.87 ERA.

As good as he was in college, it is still a little surprising that Price has been this successful this quickly. He is poised to be a secret weapon as the Rays approach the organization’s first playoff series since its inception. Price could have a Francisco Rodriguez-type of impact this fall.

Everybody knew the first pick of the 2007 amateur draft was good. But after missing approximately the first two months of the minor league season, no one expected David Price to be quite so sharp.

The 22-year-old southpaw made his pro debut on May 22 and did not allow his first run in professional baseball until June 7 against Sarasota, when he allowed three runs on 11 hits in five innings. Previously, Price had gone three starts – 18 innings – with allowing no runs on eight hits and two walks. He also struck out 19 batters and induced his fair share of ground balls.

In his last three starts, though, Price has allowed at least one run. In the previous 16.2 innings, he has allowed 20 hits and five walks. He has also struck out 18 batters. In 34.2 cumulative innings this season, Price has yet to allow a home run.

Left-handed batters are hitting .111 against Price, while right-handers are at .250. His rates are good at 1.59 BB/9 and 9.53 K/9.

The former Vanderbilt University standout has not been quite as dominant as of late, but Price is still doing very well considering the significant period of time off between his final college pitch in 2007 and May 22, 2008.

No, he’s probably not going to help out this season but it would not be a surprise to see him at the major league level in 2009. And with the likes of Wade Davis, Jacob McGee and Jeff Niemann ahead of him, there is no need to rush Price.