Archive for javier baez

Javier Baez is not Vladimir Guerrero. Baez struggled before his breakout last season at 25; by that age, Guerrero had already established himself as one of the game’s great players. Even including Baez’s leap forward last year, Guerrero struck out about a third as often as Baez has and walked nearly twice as much. He had double the WAR though his age-25 season and 55 more homers. This isn’t meant to denigrate Baez. Vladimir Guerrero was a young star on the way to the Hall of Fame while Baez is an exciting young player with one really good season and some unique, dazzling skills. What brings the two players together is a swing Baez made on Monday against Jameson Taillon and the Pirates.

Javier Baez swung at a bad pitch, a pitch so bad the ball bounced in front of the plate, but he made contact, and the ball made its way to the outfield. Baez reached base with a single. Here’s another view a little bit closer:

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To say Javier Baez had a rocky start to his big league career would be an understatement. After tearing up the minor leagues to the tune of .274/.331/.541, the 21-year-old rookie hit a putrid .169/.227/.324 in 52 games with the Chicago Cubs last year. His on base percentage was the lowest of any hitter who recorded at least 200 plate appearances last year.

Baez’s contact problems were unprecedentedly chronic. Just 59% of his swings resulted in contact, which is the lowest mark we’ve seen in the PITCHf/x era. However, Baez’s Contact% only tells part of the story. It reveals that many of his swings didn’t lead to contact, but doesn’t tell us why. Read the rest of this entry »

Winter ball in Puerto Rico wrapped up at the end of January, with Javier Baez attempting to improve his plate discipline problems after a short stint in the majors at the end of 2014. That stint, as most of us are aware, featured him striking out 41% of the time he came to the plate. Unfortunately, Baez didn’t seem to improve that aspect of his game very much while playing for the Cangrejeros de Santurce, as he went 11-43 with five walks and 21 strikeouts during the regular winter season. For those without a calculator handy, that’s a 44% strikeout rate. His walk rate improved to 10% (6.6% in 2014 MLB), so we can say there was some positive news to be claimed from his time there.

We have barely enough plate appearances for Baez from the winter league to know whether these rate statistics actually hold water, and it certainly doesn’t bode well that Baez struck out so often in Puerto Rico against the quasi-equivalent of AAA pitching talent. He managed to strike out less often in the winter league playoff games, going 13-64 with four walks and 18 strikeouts – a 26% strikeout rate that again is from a small sample size, and still not great, but an improvement. The Cubs decided to pull the plug on him in winter ball after the playoffs, preventing him from playing in the Caribbean Series after Santurce won the Puerto Rican Championship. If we combine the regular winter season and playoffs, we get this line for Baez:

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Javier Baez, SS, Chicago (NL)

Baez, 20, hit .333 at the low-A ball level in 2012 but he did it while walking just nine times in 57 games. He then finished his injury-shortened season with another 23 games in high-A ball but struggled. His plate issues have continued into 2013 with 18 strikeouts and two walks in 58 at-bats. While his aggressive nature has not helped his batting average, the Puerto Rico native is hitting with authority and eight of his 12 hits have gone for extra bases.

After opening eyes and earning a lot of hype in 17 spring training games (four homers, .298 average), Baez may be dealing with the letdown of shifting from big league camp to A-ball. The immense talent is there for him to be a star and there is no rush for Baez to reach the majors, thanks to the presence of the Cubs’ incumbent shortstop, Starlin Castro.

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I felt pretty comfortable ranking the first five prospects in the system and then things started to get murky. There were definitely some intriguing players that got cut from the list – such as Tony Zych, Juan Paniagua, Gioskar Amaya, and Robert Whitenack. I also stumbled across a few sleepers to keep an eye on, such as catcher Justin Marra.

#1 Javier Baez (SS)

Opening Day Age: 20
2012 Level: A/A+
Acquired: 2011 draft (9th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: A+/AA

Baez was a consensus first round draft pick in 2011 – and went 9th to the Cubs – but there were questions surrounding his defensive abilities and maturity. A scout I spoke with recently, though, never doubted Baez’ abilities in the field, stating that the shortstop possesses good hands, a strong arm and great instincts.

He also down played concerns over his make-up, saying that Baez works hard, is a fierce competitor and is confident. I ranked him cautiously on the pre-2012 Top 100 prospect list at 52nd overall and he made huge strides during the season. Baez, 19, was slowed early in the year by injury but then hit for average, power and stole 20 bases in 23 tries in the Midwest League (A-ball). The Puerto Rico native received a late-season promotion to the Florida State League and appeared in 23 games.

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