Archive for Joey Votto

The last time the Reds won more than 80 games in a season, they actually won 90 games in a season — and a spot in the 2013 National League Wild Card game. They lost that game 6-2 to the Pirates and then lost another 86, 98, 94, and 94 games in each of the four seasons that followed. In 2018, the Reds are projected to lose 90 games, and the incomparable Joey Votto is projected to produce another 4.4 wins for the club for which he’s recorded a line of .313/.428/.541 over his 6,141 big-league plate appearances.

Votto is 34 this year, and while his skills profile suggests he’s got at least a few good seasons left in him, he won’t be around forever. So what’s the plan in Cincinnati to make best use of the years he has left? It’s really not entirely clear.

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It’s always a little dicey writing negative articles. Pointing out deficiencies simply isn’t as fun as pointing out strengths, and there’s something that just feels, well, a little wrong about basing work on something a player is trying so hard to do well. That doesn’t feel like it pertains to this article about Joey Votto, however, mostly because he’s always been extremely good at baseball, and will almost certainly be extremely good at baseball in the near future. Votto has a great contract, an incredible career under his belt, and the prospect of many more wildly successful seasons. The dude is smart and awesome, and we’re simply not too worried about him. However — and the however is important — for really the first time in his career, Votto has been terrible at the plate for almost a full month. That’s at once unbelievable and utterly fascinating, and it’s the reason why we’re here.

So let’s start with a chart. Here’s a readout of Votto’s monthly wRC+ figures since he was called up to the majors in September of 2007. We could have gone with a rolling average, but the monthly delineation gives us a few clear reference points. Mouse over the chart for more information:

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With September here, it’s easy to forget about what’s going on with teams toward the bottom of the standings. The rosters have expanded, prospects are getting looks for the teams who are out of contention, and most articles are about playoff races and potential postseason happenings. There’s one issue with overlooking the cellar-dwellers, however: Joey Votto — who is on one of those dwellers — is having a historically great year, and that merits attention.

2015 could easily be the year that forgot about Votto. The Cincinnati Reds are in last place, the NL MVP conversation has been dominated by Bryce Harper since the first month of the season (for good reason), and a number of chronically unsuccessful franchises are looking like they’re headed to the playoffs. This late stage of the season provides a great opportunity to gauge the strength of the storylines during the past few months of baseball, and 2015 has been anything but a disappointment; quite the opposite, in fact.

That makes Votto’s 2015 strangely interesting. In a season that includes the Cubs and Mets succeeding, possibly the best rookie class ever, and a Bryce Harper mega-breakout, Votto is quietly having one of the best offensive seasons for a last place team since 1969, when the divisional era began.

Let’s investigate. First, it’s important to put Votto’s season in context. I’ve pulled the 25-best offensive seasons by wRC+ (a metric that captures a player’s overall offensive output compared to league average) since the year 2000; Votto’s 2015 season currently ranks 19th overall. Take a look:

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2014 was not a normal year for the two Joes. Both Joey Votto and Joe Mauer dealt with fallout from injuries, with Votto not having effective use of his lower half, and Mauer possibly dealing with lingering effects of a concussion sustained in 2013. For both players, the injuries affected overall production when they played, but it was especially acute in the power department for Votto. Joe Mauer, with the exception of one year in which his home run to fly ball ratio was off the charts, never had much power to begin with.

Both Joes still posted wRC+ numbers north of 100 in their playing time in 2014, because that’s what both Joes do, almost without fail. Votto and Mauer are some of the best contact hitters in the game, and that’s what we’re going to focus on today. Yes, they share other traits as well: they’re both 31, left-handed, and they walk a lot, with Votto being a particular master in that category. Maybe they both also have the same type of small dog, or are baritones.

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The Cy Young Award.

The Jackie Robinson Award.

The Kenesaw Mountain Landis Memorial Baseball Award.

Players dream of earning these awards during their career. To be a part of the prestige and history of the game in that manner is the stuff that dreams are made of.  Then, we have the award named after baseball contemporaries.

Matt Klaassen started the Carter-Batista Awards (CBA) in 2009 to recognize those players whose offensive value is exaggerated by their RBI totals.  Joe Carter’s name is listed first because not only does he own the highest CBA score since 1990, he owns three of the top seven.
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My followers and I had some fun on Twitter the other night, trying to compare actors to baseball players. Josh Hamilton to Robert Downey, Jr was a solid comparison. Robert DeNiro drew plenty of Cal Ripken, Jr, or Ken Griffey, Jr responses. Clint Eastwood was a toughy, as someone who was great in one area for an extended period of time, switched positions, and was equally great, if not better, in that area. 

Robin Yount fit that description, as he began his Hall of Fame career as a shortstop, before switching to center field.

Yount won two MVP awards in his career, recorded 3,142 hits, and finished with a .344 wOBA and 66.1 wins above replacement. He made just three all star teams in his 20-year career from 1974-1993. From 1980-83, Yount’s 25.9 WAR ranked behind only Rickey Henderson, Mike Schmidt, and Andre Dawson. He was the second best infielder in the game, and was named an all star in 1980, 1982, and 1983, only missing out in 1981, in part due to the labor strike.

He didn’t even make the all star team in 1989 when he won his second MVP award at 33 years old. The idea of a player winning a coveted end of season award while not being considered good enough in the first half to make a roster supposedly comprising the best players in each league piqued my interest.

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Coming into today, if you had to guess what National League first baseman was leading the league in wOBA, whom would you pick? Albert Pujols? Adrian Gonzalez? Prince Fielder? It’s actually Reds first baseman Joey Votto, who, with a .425 wOBA, is also leading the entire NL and is fourth in all of baseball.

Those facts may come as a shock to some baseball fans, but they really shouldn’t. Ever since he came to the big leagues, all Votto has done is hit. With a career line of .310/.393/.543 (.400 wOBA), his breakout season at age twenty-six may just be a sign of things to come. With a UZR/150 of 10.1 this year (after -1.5 in 2009 and 11.9 in 2008), Votto has cemented himself as one of the most valuable properties in baseball.

What’s also been shocking is how Votto has been so upfront and honest about his struggles with depression. Playing in a macho sport where players are told to “suck it up” and “play like a man,” Votto has been completely candid about his issues, which has been extremely refreshing:

“There were nights that I couldn’t be alone…The one night I was alone, the very first night I was alone, was when I went to the hospital. I couldn’t take it. It just got to the point where I felt I was going to die, really….

I’ve been lumped into the Khalil Greene, Dontrelle Willis, Zack Greinke category…I’m not saying one way or the other about those guys, because I don’t know what they’re dealing with. But I do know I’ve had a real struggle with my father’s passing. It’s really something I’ve had a real hard time with. It was my biggest hesitation coming out and letting people know, letting my teammates know. We’re supposed to be known as mentally tough and able to withstand any type of adversity…

I was having such a difficult time getting through the night that once I felt like I could get through two or three nights of sleep without having the phone beside me and worrying about having to call the hospital, I felt like I could start playing ball again.”

Votto missed thirty-one games last season, many of them due to time on the Disabled List because of depression. He still put up 4.5 WAR for the season, hitting .322/.414/.567.

The Reds are a half-game out of a playoff spot right now, and Joey Votto is the biggest reason why. For his career, he has a WAR/Game higher than guys like Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez. Let’s take a minute to notice.

Over the next few days, we’re looking at sophomore players in the Major Leagues. Today’s post is looking at the National League Central division. Of the six teams in the division, no club relied on young players in 2008 more than the Cincinnati Reds – both in the field and on the mound.

In the past few days, we have looked at the: AL Central, AL West, AL East.

In any other year, Joey Votto would have had a legitimate shot at the Rookie of the Year award in the National League. Last season, the first baseman hit .297/.368/.506 with 24 homers and 84 RBI in 526 at-bats. He also posted a walk rate of 10.1% and a strikeout rate of 19.4%. This season, Votto has dealt with some medical concerns, but he’s still hitting a robust .357/.464/.627 with eight homers and 33 RBI in 126 at-bats. His strikeout rate is virtually the same, but the 25-year-old Canadian has increased his walk rate by almost five percent.

It’s funny how baseball works. Outfielder Jay Bruce was the most highly-anticipated rookie of the year at the beginning of 2008, but his rookie season ended up being pretty average. Now 22, Bruce spent the first 48 games of the season in triple-A before his promotion. In the Majors, he hit .254/.314/.453 with 21 homers in 413 at-bats. He also had a walk rate of 7.4% and a strikeout rate of 26.6%. This season, he’s hitting just .217/.306/.469 with 16 homers in 226. On the positive side, his walk rate has increased by three percent and the strikeout rate is down four percent. After posting a .298 BABIP last season, Bruce’s BABIP is a ridiculously low .206. His line drive rate is down seven percent from the 21.1 LD% he had last season. Right now, he’s kind of looking like a cross between Austin Kearns and Adam Dunn, which isn’t really a good thing. At least he’s still very young.

The only bigger enigma in the Reds’ system is right-hander Homer Bailey. The 23-year-old pitcher has very good stuff, but consistency is not his strong suit. After a disappointing nine starts in 2007, Bailey returned to the Majors for part of 2008 and posted a 7.93 ERA with 59 hits in 36.1 innings. He posted a 4.21 BB/9 rate, as well as a strikeout rate of just 4.46 K/9. This season, Bailey has made just one (poor) MLB start while spending the majority of his time in triple-A. He has a 2.83 ERA with 81 hits allowed in 82.2 innings. He has a walk rate of 2.72 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.06 K/9.

Johnny Cueto was mostly an unknown prospect prior to the 2008 season but he made a name for himself pretty quickly. Overall, the right-hander was 9-14 with a 4.81 ERA and he was inconsistent all season. However, he still struck out more than 150 batters (8.17 K/9) while keeping the walks to a modest number (3.52 BB/9). This season, the 23-year-old has been even better with a 2.17 ERA and 68 hits allowed in 87 innings. He’s decreased his walk rate by almost one full walk per nine innings, but his strikeout rate has also dropped. Cueto’s ground-ball rate is also up, though, and he’s becoming more of a pitcher and less of a thrower.

Milwaukee fans had been waiting for Manny Parra to “arrive” for quite a few seasons, but his MLB career was delayed by injuries in the minors. The left-hander’s rookie season in 2008 had promise, although he allowed far too many hits with 181 in just 166 innings of work. He also posted a walk rate of 4.07 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.97. This season, Parra completely fell apart before being demoted to triple-A. In the Majors, Parra posted a 7.52 ERA with 83 hits in 64.2 innings. His walk rate jumped to 5.71 BB/9.

Kyle McClellan, 25, was a key part of the Cardinals bullpen in 2008 despite an uninspired minor league career. The right-hander posted a 4.04 ERA with 79 hits allowed in 75.2 innings of work. He posted rates of 3.09 BB/9 and 7.02 K/9. This season, the reliever has a 3.45 ERA and has allowed just 23 hits in 31.1 innings. He has struggled with his walk rate at 4.88 BB/8 and his strikeout rate is 6.61 K/9.

J.R. Towles was one of the Astros’ better hitting prospects prior to the 2008 season but he struggled mightily in the Majors. The right-handed hitting catcher batted just .137/.250/.253 with a strikeout rate of 27.4 K%. He hit more than .300 after a demotion to triple-A. This season, Towles, 25, has appeared in just four MLB games and has a batting average of .182. He’s spent the Majority of the year in triple-A and has a triple-slash line of .281/.385/.461. With top prospect and catcher Jason Castro in double-A, Towles’ future is probably in another organization.

A Rule 5 pick-up from the Dodgers, Wesley Wright appeared in 71 games for the Astros in 2008. He posted an ERA of 5.01 and allowed 45 hits in 55.2 innings of work. He had a walk rate of 5.50 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.22 K/9. The southpaw held lefties to a .207 batting average and righties hit .220. This year, Wright struggled with a 7.24 ERA and allowed 23 hits in 13.2 innings. He was then demoted to triple-A.

Kosuke Fukudome had a red-hot first few months in the Majors and then fell off the face of the earth for the remainder of 2008. Overall, the Japanese rookie hit .257/.359/.279 with 10 homers and 12 stolen bases in 501 at-bats. Last year, he hit .279 in the first half of the year and just .217 in the second half. This year, he got off to another good start but has cooled as of late to an overall line of .266/.394/.429 with five homers and four steals. The 32-year-old outfielder does not have youth on his side.

The reigning Rookie of the Year in the NL, Geovany Soto had a great offensive season for the Cubs. He hit .285/.364/.504 with 23 homers and 86 RBI in 494 at-bats. The catcher also posted a walk rate of 11.2 BB% and a strikeout rate of 24.5 K%. This year has been a disaster as he’s hit just .217/.324/.311 with three homers in 161 at-bats. His rates are pretty much the same but his power has dried up. The Cubs really need his bat to wake up.

The Pirates received some help from outfielders Brandon Moss and Nyjer Morgan in 2008. Moss was acquired from Boston in the Jason Bay deal, while Morgan is a homegrown talent. Moss had a modest rookie year and hit just .246/.304/.436 with eight homers and one steal in 236 at-bats. His strikeout rate was high at 29.7 K%. It’s dropped almost 10 percent this season but the outfielder is still not hitting well with a line of .243/.293/.343 with one homer and no steals. Morgan, on the other hand, is exceeding expectations. The speedy outfielder had just nine steals in 14 attempts last year but he hit .294/.345/.375 in 160 at-bats. This season he has 16 steals in 23 attempts and is hitting .261/.338/.340. Morgan, 28, looks like a useful fourth outfielder.

The Graduate: Johnny Cueto | Born: February 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

The Reds received some solid performances from rookies in 2008 and Johnny Cueto was no exception. Despite the 9-14 record, Cueto pitched 174 innings and allowed 178 hits. He posted rates of 3.52 BB/9 and 8.17 K/9. Cueto needs to work on his consistency and avoiding the long ball (1.50 HR/9). He mainly relies on his low-to-mid-90s fastball and slider, but also features a hard change-up (averages 84 mph).

The Riser: Daryl Thompson | Born: November 1985 | Right-Handed Pitcher

After batting injuries throughout most of his career, the once-promising Daryl Thompson showed his potential again thanks to two straight (relatively) healthy seasons. He made three Major League starts in 2008 and struggled by allowing 20 hits and seven walks in 14.1 innings. His numbers, though, in Double-A and Triple-A were excellent so he is a good bet to have a bigger impact in Cincinnati in 2009. Thompson features a low-90s fastball, slider, curveball and change-up.

The Tumbler: Pedro Viola | Born: June 1983 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Pedro Viola was a late bloomer out of the Dominican Republic and did not make it stateside until the age of 23 in 2007. He made up for lost time and rocket through three levels that year before settling in Double-A. Viola returned to Double-A in 2008 but struggled with being too hittable. He allowed 88 hits in 82.1 innings and posted rates of 3.94 BB/9 and 9.18 K/9. He has a low-to-mid-90s fastball but his secondary pitches are fringy.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Alex Buchholz | Born: September 1987 | Second Baseman

A sixth round pick out of the University of Delaware, Alex Buchholz is an offensive-minded second baseman, who was converted from a college third baseman. He was assigned to Rookie Ball, despite his age and experience, due to a plethora of infield talent in the system. Buchholz dominated and posted a line of .396/.460/.604 with 15 doubles in 134 at-bats. He also posted rates of 10.7 BB% and 18.7 K%. He should begin 2009 in A-ball and could move quickly.

The ’09 Sleeper: Kyle Lotzkar | Born: October 1989 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Kyle Lotzkar, a Canadian, was selected in the 2007 supplemental first round due to an impressive repertoire that features a low-to-mid-90s fastball, solid change-up and improving curveball. The big issues with Lotzkar, who has limited pitching experience, are his command and control. In his second season, Lotzkar allowed just 29 hits in 37.2 innings and posted rates of 5.73 BB/9 and 11.95 K/9. He allowed just two home runs. His season was cut short by a stress fracture in his elbow, which should be healed by the spring. Fellow Canadian prospect Adam Loewen had his pitching career ended by a stress fracture, while White Sox closer Bobby Jenks was able to rebound from a similar injury early in his pro career.

Up Next: The Cleveland Indians