Archive for Rays

The Rays continue to play phenomenal baseball. While their 14-game home winning streak came to an end on Tuesday night, they have won six of their last seven and boast what is easily the best run differential in the sport. Their average margin of victory is 3.7 runs, which is more than the Tigers, Marlins, and Royals are scoring per game. As if all that weren’t enough, Tampa Bay is only getting stronger. Zach Eflin returned from a back injury on Sunday and twirled five innings of one-run ball. Tyler Glasnow threw his first simulated game on Monday, a critical step in his rehab process as he works to rejoin the rotation. Meanwhile, top prospect Taj Bradley is waiting in the wings after making a fantastic big league debut.

For all that good stuff, however, the Rays have also been dealt a significant blow. On April 13 against the Red Sox, Jeffrey Springs looked down at his elbow after throwing a pitch; it would turn out to be his last of the 2023 campaign. Coincidentally, the Rays would lose their first game of the year the following day. Springs landed on the injured list with a diagnosis of ulnar neuritis but was later revealed to have torn his UCL; he underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week to repair the ligament, leaving the Rays to go the rest of the way without the player who could have been their biggest success story. That’s a bold claim to make about a man on the same team as Yandy Díaz and Randy Arozarena, but that’s just how well Springs was pitching. Read the rest of this entry »

Over the past three seasons, the modus operandi for the Tampa Bay Rays has been to find a one-year solution at first base in the clearance bin of the offseason market. In 2011, that came in the form of adding Casey Kotchman on a minor league deal and watching him produce a 2.4 win season. In 2012, the team upped the budget and spent $7.25M to bring back Carlos Pena a year after he left via free agency, but Pena struggled through a 0.7 win season. Last season, James Loney was brought in on a $2M deal, and turned a profit with a career-best 2.7 win season.

The first base situation has been as much as a revolving door as the closer role has been with the club. Until Fernando Rodney repeated as the team saves leader last season, the team had had a different pitcher leads the team in saves each year under Maddon. While they have had repeated success with the closer role, the situation at first base has been a bit different.  As Joe Maddon often says about these types of situations, the Rays meatloafed the first base situation.

Read the rest of this entry »

It seems like a foregone conclusion that David Price won’t be with the Tampa Bay Rays when spring training begins next year. In previous seasons, Tampa Bay has dealt Edwin Jackson and Matt Garza as the team entered costly years in the arbitration process. The Rays also traded James Shields to address team depth, despite his rather affordable contract, which means there’s plenty of history to suggest a move is in Price’s future.

Some of the statements put out there in recent weeks include concerns about Price’s declining velocity, about diminishing returns on value and whether the team can afford to keep the pitcher for even one more season. There’s no masking the fact Price threw with less velocity in 2013, even after returning from a stint on the disabled list while he recovered from a triceps strain. Price returned from the DL intent on becoming a more efficient pitcher, and he did so with aplomb. In fact, only Cliff Lee threw a higher percentage of strikes in the season’s final three months.

Read the rest of this entry »

Game time: 11:05 ET

Starting Pitchers
Rays: Jeff Niemann (R)
2 GS, 8.1 IP, 3 K, 1 BB, 2 HBP, 1 HR, 4.94 FIP, 5.34 xFIP.
Projected FIP: 4.13 (FAN) 4.61 (CHONE) 4.67 (ZiPS)
L-R Splits: 0.20 run reverse split in 205.0 IP

Red Sox: John Lackey (R)
2 GS, 12.2 IP, 5 K, 6 BB, 1 HBP, 0 HR, 3.88 FIP, 5.50 xFIP
Projected FIP: 3.74 (FAN) 3.90 (ZiPS) 3.96 CHONE 4.18 Marcel
L-R Splits: 0.21 normal split in 1513.2 IP

The Red Sox will be looking to avenge three straight losses to the Rays and four straight overall. They appear to hold the pitching advantage in the last game of this four game set, as John Lackey will take the mound for the Red Sox. Although his 1.42 ERA looks great right now, Lackey has had some issues with control so far, issuing 6 walks against only 5 strikeouts. The ERA is a result of keeping the ball in the ballpark, as we can see from his high xFIP.

Lackey appears to have a completely new approach this year, as he has taken to throwing a cutter – 38% of his pitches have been classified as a cutter so far this year, a pitch with significantly less movement towards a right-handed hitter than his four-seam fastball. His cutter is averaging 89.5 MPH on the year, so far a significant drop off from the 91.6 he averaged on his go-to four-seam fastball last season. He hasn’t completely scrapped the four-seamer – he still uses it over 20% of the time – but the average velocity appears to be lower, sitting at 90.2. It’s very early in the season, but he’s only drawn 6 swinging strikes in 207 pitches – a paltry 2.9%. That number will need to rise for Lackey to be effective as the season continues.

Niemann, similarly, has a low ERA in his first two starts despite poor performance. Niemann hasn’t managed to strike batters out as of yet, and although a 1.08 BB/9 looks nice, he also has hit two batters in only 8.1 innings. His first start ended abruptly, as he was hit on the shoulder by a Miguel Tejada line drive.

Much like with Lackey, the use of a secondary fastball – in this case, a two-seamer – appears to be much more prominent in Niemann’s repertoire this season. Unlike Lackey’s cutter, Niemann’s two-seamer exhibits a sharper break towards a right-handed batter. In his April 13th start against Baltimore, the two-seamer drew 2 swinging strikes in only 27 pitchers, for a swinging strike rate of 7.41%. If his breaking pitches can draw more swinging strikes – only one between 33 changeups, sliders, and curveballs – an increased whiff rate on his fastballs should lead to more strikeouts and, naturally, more success for the second year pitcher.

Neither pitcher exhibits a strong platoon split, and so neither team should be looking to stack the lineup with lefties. Expect the normal lineups for each team today.

The CHONE projected standings originally showed the Red Sox 5 games ahead of the Rays for the AL Wild Card. The FAN projections showed the Rays as within 2 at the start of the season. With the Rays taking the first three games of this series at Fenway Park, the Rays have closed the gap. This is an important game for the AL East and Wild Card races, even though it’s only April, as each team needs all the ground it can get.

One of the first articles I wrote for this site involved Brian Shouse and his ability to strand runners. In 2007, Shouse, then 39 years old, stranded 60 of his 78 runners inherited. That 77% rate was actually much higher through September 15, when 85% of such runners failed to score. His strand-skill regressed this past season to 67%, but the 40-yr old late blooming lefty specialist put together a 2.81 ERA in 69 games.

Granted, his FIP rose from 2.90 to 3.93, but Shouse improved upon his 2007 WHIP, LOB, and K/BB. Facing so few batters per game likely extends his baseball life expectancy, making him an appealing commodity to several teams. The Rays bit, signing him last week. The exact terms of the deal are still unknown, but it appears to be a 1-yr, $1-2 mil deal with an option for a similar fee.

In 2007, Shouse produced +1.1 wins, worth $4.6 mil. Last season, his +0.4 wins translated to $1.8 mil. His three-year weighted projection calls for somewhere between +0.4 and +0.6 wins next season. At $4.5 mil/win, fair market value falls between $1.8 mil and $2.7 mil. If Andrew Friedman signed Shouse for $2 mil, he is banking on the artist formerly known as strandmaster to repeat last year’s production, if not slightly exceed it.

If the deal pays Shouse $1 mil, then Friedman will be valuing him at around +0.2 wins. Suffice it to say, Shouse should easily surpass that win value, making this contract very reasonable for both sides. A 40-yr old lefty specialist, in this economic climate, simply should not be signed for anything above $2 mil. Even if Shouse’s production completely drops off the table, the Rays have built such a deep and solid bullpen that some may not even notice.

This season has been quite the rollercoaster for me, considering I never thought in a thousand years that I would bare witness to the team I root for taking a commanding 3-1 lead in the World Series. Clearly, the dominance of Cole Hamels, tonight’s game five starter, has loomed large in the team reaching this juncture, but the work of their relief corps has been outstanding, and is another reason why they find themselves in a series-clinching game tonight. The bullpen of the Phillies was extremely solid all season long, posting one of the lowest ERAs in baseball while simultaneously producing one of the best FIPs. And, as mentioned last week, they threw the lowest percentage of fastballs of any bullpen in baseball, relying almost equally on offspeed pitches.

Against the Brewers, in the NLDS, Ryan Madson, Brad Lidge, Chad Durbrin, JC Romero, Scott Eyre, and Clay Condrey allowed four earned runs in 10 innings of work. The sextet walked just three batters while striking out nine. The 3.60 ERA and 3.00 K/BB were both impressive, but they did allow 13 hits, as Durbin and Eyre combined to give up 6 hits in 1.2 innings. The big three of Lidge, Madson, and Romero, however, combined for: 7.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K.

The Phillies won the series three games to one and moved onto play the Dodgers. JA Happ joined the previously mentioned six relievers in dominating the opposition, as the bullpen allowed just two earned runs in 18.2 innings of work. All told, their numbers were: 18.2 IP, 13 H, 2 ER, 12 BB, 17 K. The walks and strikeouts could be much better, but next to nobody scored in their appearances, as they produced an ERA below 1.00. The big three scattered six hits over 11.2 innings, walking six and striking out 13, all while stranding every baserunner that reached. Through the first two series tiers, the Phillies bullpen had posted the following numbers: 28.2 IP, 26 H, 6 ER, 15 BB, 26 K.

They then moved onto the World Series, to take on the Rays, who themselves had an extremely solid bullpen in the regular season. They had not been as stellar in the DS and CS, but had balance and depth that most other teams lacked. While they have faltered to some degree through four World Series games, the Phillies relievers have continued to flourish. Happ and Condrey have not seen action, but Lidge, Madson, Romero, Eyre, and Durbin have combined for 8.2 innings in which only one earned run has scored. Only two Rays batters have recorded hits off of this quintet, who suddenly stopped walking hitters. All told, they have walked one batter while striking out 12.

In the Division Series, the Phillies had decent K/BB numbers, but their ERA was higher than they would have liked. In the Championship Series, they drastically reduced the ERA, but their K/BB numbers got much worse. In the World Series, so far, they have put everything together, coupling a Bob Gibson-esque ERA with a Pedro Martinez circa 1999-2000 K/BB ratio. Having confidence in a bullpen can reduce the stress on a manager to make the decision of whether or not to keep a starter in the game, and the Phillies bullpen has done everything possible to earn this confidence. Will they all be this good next season? Who knows, but what is certainly clear is that if they can sustain their performances for at least one more game, they could end their season on the highest of high notes.

While writing and researching this post it is still hard to believe, for this baseball fan at least, that the Tampa Bay Rays are currently 45-31, a full fourteen games over .500. Not to say I didn’t expect them to be good but their turnaround has been remarkable and very fun to keep tabs on. In looking over some of their statistics I came across this interesting little nugget: Andy Sonnanstine leads the AL in E-F, at 1.53.

E-F, or ERA-FIP as you may have seen at The Hardball Times, does just what the title suggests: it subtracts the FIP from the ERA in order to see which pitchers have been lucky or unlucky with regards to their earned run barometer and controllable skills measure. Sonnanstine has a 4.85 ERA yet a 3.32 FIP. That FIP ranks 8th best in the league and the only other E-Fs higher, in all of baseball, belong to Bronson Arroyo and Ian Snell; their ERAs are 6+ right now.

Adding to my interest level are Sonnanstine’s numbers last year: a 5.85 ERA and a 4.26 FIP, resulting in a 1.59 E-F. So, two years running now Andy has posted an ERA over 1.5 runs worse than his controllable skills (BB, K, HR) would suggest. It didn’t even matter that this year’s ERA is a full run lower. Not surprisingly, his .348 BABIP is the highest in the AL, and his 63.8% LOB rate is the second lowest in the league. For comparison’s sake, the AL average LOB rate at this juncture is 72.36%.

Due to this lack of luck, his win probability metrics have taken some serious hits. Andy’s -0.39 WPA ranks 5th worst in the league while his -0.34 WPA/LI registers 8th from the bottom. Despite one of the best measures of controllable skills in the league, he has statistically been one of the worst contributors to success. Whereas Aaron Harang has been unlucky in terms of his W-L barometer, Sonnanstine has been unlucky in a number of different areas yet currently holds an 8-3 record.

Sonnanstine has been unlucky thus far in terms of the numbers largely out of his control but don’t tell that to his W-L record, which is good enough to introduce himself to plenty of fantasy owners out there.

As of right now, the Tampa Bay Rays (I didn’t say Devil!) are tied with the Cubs for the best record in baseball. They are playing with confidence and really seem to feel they belong at the top. Some of this confidence stems from the knowledge that, every fifth day, Scott Kazmir will toe the rubber. The actually productive component of arguably the worst trade of all time broke out last season, leading everyone without the luxury of an 163rd game in strikeouts.

Oddly enough, Kazmir missed the entire month of April and the Rays still managed to go 15-12. Since his return he has not missed a beat and the team is currently 31-21.

In five starts he has gone for 30 innings, giving up 19 hits and 10 walks, striking out 32 in the process. Omitting his first start, Kazmir has gone 26 innings, giving up just 13 hits and 7 walks, with 27 strikeouts to boot; additionally, his last four starts have an average game score of 71.

Kazmir is yet to surrender a home run and has kept runners off base as evidenced by his 0.97 WHIP. Those who do manage to get on have been stranded 79.3% of the time. He has been in the 1.27-1.48 WHIP range the last three seasons primarily due to his walks. Since he does not surrender many hits—a .247 BAA from ’05-’07—he should experience even more success with some added control.

Now, 79.3% is quite high for LOB but if/when he regresses and more runners score, it does not mean he will not be effective; rather, he just won’t be Sandy Koufax anymore.

Last year he posted his highest BABIP against at .341; spreading his balls in play with 15.6% LD, 43.1% GB, and 41.3% FB, Kazmir may have been a bit unlucky. This year, surrendering 7% more line drives (22.7%), he currently has just a .265 BABIP. His career numbers also suggest this frequency of line drives should decrease to the 18% range.

When put together, all of this suggests Kazmir’s production may not sustain its current pace, but a slightly regressing Scott Kazmir is still better than the vast majority of major league pitchers.