The first words out of Casey Kelly’s mouth surprised me. When I asked the former top prospect how he’d describe his career, I expected something along the lines of, “It’s been frustrating.”

He said “It’s been fun.”

That’s a glass-is-half-full attitude if there ever was one. Since being taken in the first round of the 2008 draft by the Red Sox, the 27-year-old right-hander has thrown just 640 professional innings, 62 of which have come at the highest level. They haven’t been pretty innings. Kelly’s big-league ERA is an unattractive 6.39.

His future look especially bright after he was acquired by San Diego in the Anthony Rizzo–Adrian Gonzalez trade. Heading into the 2011 season, Kelly was ranked by Baseball America as the Padres top prospect (Rizzo was right behind him). Displaying a power arsenal, he went on to hurl 142 quality frames as a 21-year-old in Double-A.

Clouds were looming on the horizon. Read the rest of this entry »

Per Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame Tracker, Edgar Martinez has received 69% of support from voters who have made their ballots public. This puts him well ahead of last year’s pace, although it’s likely that he’ll fall short of the 75% needed to put him over the top. This is the Seattle legend’s eighth year of eligibility.

While Martinez belongs in Cooperstown, it is understandable that some voters haven’t checked off his name. The 10-man limit is a primary culprit, as the ballot is once again stacked with strong candidates. Also working against him is his time as a designated hitter. Fairly or not, a not-insignificant number of ballot-casters hold that against him with a cudgel.

At least one voter feels Martinez simply wasn’t good enough. With ample room on his ballot, and a claim that DH had nothing to do with it, the scribe opined that he “never thought of him as a dominant, feared hitter in his era.” Read the rest of this entry »

Curves were in vogue in 2016. A handful of hurlers — Rich Hill, Lance McCullers and Drew Pomeranz among them — were especially reliant on the pitch. In the postseason, the Cleveland Indians threw a boatload of benders against the Toronto Blue Jays, and even more against the Chicago Cubs.

Are we entering a curveball renaissance? Is good old Uncle Charlie making a comeback after years of playing second fiddle to sliders, splitters, and increasing velocity? Can we expect to see more Rich Hills, and more of the attack plan used by Cleveland in the World Series?

I posed that question — my wording varied, but the gist didn’t — to several managers at the Winter Meetings. Here is how they responded:

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Bruce Bochy, San Francisco Giants: “We have baseball ops that I will put with anybody as far as the information we get. We have all this information, and [we] use it to a point where it makes sense. You don’t get away from your strength as a pitcher. It’s great if a hitter doesn’t hit a curveball, but if your guy doesn’t throw a curveball, you’ve got to make adjustments.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Pirates have some big decisions to make this offseason, not the least of which is what to do with Andrew McCutchen. The face of the franchise was a white-hot, trade-rumor topic at the Winter Meetings, and if he does remain in Jolly Roger land, speculation abounds that he could move from center field to right field.

Another outfield question looms as well. The analytics-minded club positioned their fly-catchers shallower than usual in 2016, with less-than-ideal results. I asked GM Neal Huntington about that at the winter meetings.

Huntington told me their internal data showed they “gave up more damage in front of us than we had over our head,” and that they ran “model after model that showed had we played shallower, we would have prevented more runs than if we’d have played deeper.”

That doesn’t mean there won’t be changes. With the season in the rearview, it’s once again time to parse data. Read the rest of this entry »

Player X should be in the Hall of Fame because Player Y is in the Hall of Fame is a common argument. As often as not, a good counter argument can be made that neither is deserving —Y was a marginal candidate, and enshrining X would further water down what is meant to be a select group. If you’re an advocate of a “small hall.” that would be your view. If you’re in the “big hall” camp, X-and-Y debates are more likely to strike your fancy.

With that in mind, let’s compare Vladimir Guerrero — on the ballot for the first time — with Jim Rice, who is often cited as a marginal Hall of Famer. Outfielders known for their offensive prowess, they had careers of equal duration.

Guerrero had 9.059 plate appearances, 2,590 hits, and 972 extra-base hits. Rice had 9,058 plate appearances, 2,452 hits, and 848 extra-base hits.

Guerrero slashed .318/.379/.553. Rice slashed .298/.352/.502.

Guerrero had an OPS+ of 130-or-better 11 times, and 150-or-better six times. His high-water mark was 162. Rice had an OPS+ of 130-or-better six times, and 150-or-better twice. His high-water mark was 157. Read the rest of this entry »

Jessica Mendoza will be careful not to get too nerdy when she discusses Yordano Ventura’s repertoire in tonight’s ESPN Sunday Night Baseball game. She could if it fit the script. Unlike many analysts, Mendoza is a data hound when it comes to game preparation.

With ESPN in Boston for Red Sox-Royals, Mendoza made it a point to become well-acquainted with Ventura’s offerings. She consulted PITCHf/x data. She read articles posted here at FanGraphs and at Beyond The Box Score. When I chatted with her yesterday, she cited — off the top of her head — details about Ventura’s grips, arm slots, and his horizontal and vertical movement.

An accomplished hitter in her playing days — she starred at Stanford and for the United States women’s national softball team — Mendoza feels she needs to do more homework on the pitching side. Read the rest of this entry »

Dylan Bundy felt like he was throwing with someone else’s arm. The Orioles right-hander didn’t word it that way, but that’s how it sounded when I spoke to him earlier this week. It’s not unlike an out-of-body experience when the radar gun is at odds with your senses, in both directions.

Bundy had Tommy John surgery in 2013, and the road back wasn’t always smooth. Along with arduous rehab, there were sensory blips.

“I felt out of whack when I started throwing again,” said Bundy.” Something just felt off. It was like my arm was perfectly fine, but I was trying to throw the ball 70 mph and it was coming out 55. It was a weird feeling.

“Even when I got all the way up to 92, when I was rehabbing in the minors, I would have games where my arm felt perfectly fine, my body felt fine, mechanically I was fine, but it felt like the ball was coming out 85 mph and it was really coming out 91-92. That was even weirder. I wondered if the feeling was ever going to go away.” Read the rest of this entry »

Sean Manaea got shelled at Fenway Park on Tuesday night. Making just his third big-league appearance, the Oakland A’s southpaw allowed eight runs on 10 hits in just two-and-two-third innings.

The following day, I asked the promising young hurler what it feels like to stand on the mound in front of 35,000 people and get hit as hard as he did.

“It’s… I’ve never been in this situation before,” responded Manaea. “I had a really bad game n Myrtle Beach two years ago, but there were only a couple thousand people in the stands. To be here at Fenway and do that bad, and hear the hometown crowd as I walked off the field… it sucked. But it is what it is. All I can do is acknowledge that it happened and move on.”

Acknowledging what happened used to be an issue. Back when he allowed seven runs over two innings against Myrtle Beach — “The worst I’d done up until last night” — Manaea had trouble owning up to adversity. Read the rest of this entry »

The Mariners organization won’t be confused for having one of the top farm systems in baseball, but the developments of the past year help bring some legitimate optimism for its future contributions to the big-league product. A number of low- and medium-level trades have bolstered the middle of the pack, with guys like Boog Powell and Nick Wells providing some high-floor, moderate-upside additions to a prospect pool that has seen better years.

On top of that, and maybe most excitingly, the 2015 draft class is already proving to be a kickstart for the organization. Though it’s way too early to anoint a lot of their fresh faces as sure big leaguers, it’s hard to have a better start than what they have put together so far. Drew Jackson and Braden Bishop were both known as excellent defenders, but it was their hitting performances that were the story of the post-draft months. Nick Neidert and Andrew Moore lead a list of 2015 draftees who are quality contenders for at least upper-minors success as pitchers, and both have a reasonable chance of eventually being starters for a major-league team.

The very recent success of the prospect class couldn’t come at a better time, when less recent high draft picks like Alex Jackson and Austin Wilson have seen their stocks plummet in a very short time. Jackson is particularly troubling for me: although you can still see similarities to the hitter he was before being in conversation for a first-overall pick, nearly everything has gone south for him statistically and physically. Though the player development and scouting staffs still have their work cut out for them, new management under Jerry Dipoto promises to at least add some fresh voices to the fold. If you buy into momentum, they have plenty of it heading into the 2016 season and this June’s draft.

Read the rest of this entry »

Nathan Karns is currently competing with James Paxton for a spot at the back end of Seattle’s starting rotation. The 28-year-old right-hander has the potential to be more than a No. 5, however. Acquired by the Mariners from Tampa Bay in November, Karns has a big fastball, a power curveball and a much-improved changeup. In 27 games last year, he logged a 3.67 ERA and struck out 145 batters in 147 innings.

Karns has a studious approach to go with his raw stuff. That much was evident when the Texas Tech product broke down his repertoire and his pitching philosophy earlier this week.

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Karns on his approach: “I focus my pitching on the lineup I’m facing. I kind of preplan. I identify weaknesses and strengths, so that I can go in with a plan for each hitter. I’ll get their numbers. First-pitch swinging is one. Do they swing at first-pitch curveballs? I’ll keep little things like that in the back of my mind.

“The count and runners on base come into play. So does what I’m working with on a given day. For instance, if I can’t throw my curveball in the bullpen before a game, I’m not necessarily going to run away from it, but it might not be my No. 2 pitch that day. What I’m executing may cause me to adjust.

Read the rest of this entry »