Archive for Yankees

The mighty Giancarlo Stanton has fallen once again. On Sunday afternoon, the 33-year-old was diagnosed with a Grade 2 strain in his left hamstring, according to Marly Rivera of ESPN. The Yankees placed him on the 10-day injured list, recalling top 100 prospect Oswald Peraza to take his place.

After he crushed a 110-mph double on Saturday afternoon, Stanton returned to the Yankees dugout while Aaron Hicks trotted out to second base. It wouldn’t be the first time the slow-moving slugger was replaced on the bases, so there wasn’t any reason to worry in the moment. Indeed, the DH walked off the field and was greeted with high fives in the dugout, where he remained to watch the game. As it turned out, however, Stanton had requested the pinch runner himself. He recognized the pain in his hamstring and knew immediately that something was wrong. Although Stanton didn’t show any outward signs of pain, it was certainly an awkward play. He thought he’d hit the ball over the fence and only realized he needed to run as he was rounding first.

While Stanton’s decision to prematurely marvel at his handiwork turned out to be a mistake, there’s no reason to blame his poor baserunning for his injury. The unfortunate truth is that Stanton’s legs – his left in particular – are quite injury-prone. He has spent time on the IL with various leg injuries in each of the past five seasons. In 2019, he sprained the PCL in his right knee and missed 72 games. The year after that, it was a left hamstring strain, much like the one he just suffered; he was out for five weeks. In 2021, he lost two weeks to a left quad strain, and last year, he missed 10 days with right ankle inflammation and another month with tendinitis in his left Achilles. Read the rest of this entry »

The theory goes that some players can turn it on in the final years of their existing contracts on their way to free agency. The data say otherwise, as both writers and teams, have discovered. In 2013, we witnessed two contrasting examples of walk years from Ubaldo Jimenez and Phil Hughes. Jimenez seemingly flipped a switch in June, pitched like his old self and exercised an out clause in his deal with Cleveland to jump feet-first into a cash-rich free-agent crop. Then there was Hughes, a pitcher who statistically regressed in his walk year. As Buster Olney tweeted yesterday:

Refrain of numerous evaluators this winter about Phil Hughes: Given everything he had at stake in his free agent year, why did he struggle?

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) November 25, 2013

Read the rest of this entry »

The Yankees have acquired Ichiro Suzuki from the Mariners in exchange for pitching prospects D.J. Mitchell and Danny Farquhar. The Mariners are also paying approximately $4.5 million of the $6.7 million remaining on Ichiro’s contract, leaving the Yankees responsible for a fairly modest $2.25 million.

According to Mariners CEO Howard Lincoln, Ichiro had approached the club requesting a trade, reasoning that the Mariners are building for the future and it was best for the team if younger players were given more playing time.

Ichiro has also become a shell of his former self, posting a .289 wOBA last season and a .281 wOBA this year, both of which rank near the league’s bottom. Since the start of last season, only Cliff Pennington, Casey McGehee and Gordon Beckham have produced lower wOBAs. Trading him must have been very difficult, but it was much easier to justify, and downright responsible, from a production standpoint.

While Safeco Field clearly has a hand in his decline, he is simply nowhere near the same player fans are accustomed to seeing. He isn’t an everyday player anymore, but it would have been tough for the Mariners to play him sporadically given his importance to the team and the community. The Yankees don’t need him to be anything more than a part-time platoon player to make this deal work out, and for Ichiro, the realization that his days as a full-time starter are done is likely easier to stomach on a playoff contender.

While it’s somewhat shocking that the Mariners dealt their franchise player — especially since most signs pointed towards his retention next season — what he could potentially provide his new club is rather intriguing. In the appropriate role and under the right circumstances, he could really benefit the Yankees down the stretch.

Simply by not playing the majority of his games at Safeco Field, which has absolutely crushed BABIP and offense in general this season, Ichiro figures to improve his seasonal line. If his numbers at the plate with the Yankees resemble his current road numbers, and his terrific fielding persists, the Yankees won’t think twice about the money they’ll spend or the prospects they dealt. If they just acquired “Road” Ichiro, this is a darned good deal that bolsters depth in an important area.

Read the rest of this entry »

Heath Bell and Carlos Pena were each claimed on waivers earlier this week, though it appears that neither player will be moving.

The Giants claimed Bell, most likely to bolster their bullpen given the injuries to Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo. The waiver claim could have also been submitted to block the Diamondbacks from acquiring Bell. The Yankees claimed Pena, even though Mark Teixeira plays virtually every inning at first base and Jorge Posada has performed well against righties this season with a .359 wOBA.

But given the Yankees place in the standings and the lack of need for the Red Sox, the claim on Pena probably wasn’t used as a blocking mechanism.

Both players should have been dealt back at the trade deadline, when teams could unilaterally work with one another. Both Bell and Pena might not represent massive improvements to anyone with only a month remaining in the season, but they could have impacted the playoff picture if traded in mid-July, when more teams were seemingly in the race. Let’s take a look at both situations.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday we took a look at the best and worst offenses and defenses to make the playoffs since 2004. Perhaps the most interesting discoveries involved the Yankees, who produced the top three offenses as well as the bottom three defenses in this span. In 2005, however, their defense plummeted ten miles south of abysmal towards incalculable, unfathomable depths.

That season, the aggregate UZR in the Bronx was -130 runs. -130! Despite a tremendous offense worth +139 runs, only nine runs remained due to defensive ineptitudes.

How were they that bad? Not only is it the worst team defense of playoff teams, it is the worst team defense of anybody since at least 2002. The next worse mark belongs to the 2003 Brewers at -75 runs. Essentially, the Yankees defense in 2005 fell 5.5 wins below the next worse defense in the same seven year span.

Of players with at least 70 games played at a position, only Alex Rodriguez’s third base performance of +1.4 runs surpassed the league average mark of zero. After Rodriguez came Tino Martinez, with a -1.3 mark at first base, and Hideki Matsui, with -1.9 run defense in left field. Jason Giambi logged 78 games at first base as well, with -3.2 run defense. So far, things don’t look that bad, but we’re just getting started.

Every stathead’s favorite whipping boy, Derek Jeter, is next with a -12.5 rating at shortstop. Jeter won a gold glove for his “stellar” defense. His partner up the middle, Robinson Cano, played even worse defense, at -18.4 runs. The poor defensive performances of both Bernie Williams and Gary Sheffield dwarf that figure, however. Williams played -28.6 run defense in centerfield, which was almost equally as poor as Sheff’s -29 UZR in right field.

So there you have it: the worst defensive team in the win values era. I would venture a guess that their reign would extend even farther back as well. Luckily, they were able to hit, but the team could have been even better with more solid defenders. Everyone is quick to point fingers at A-Rod or concoct other reasons for their dearth of recent championships, but perhaps much of it has to do with how offensive production looks sexier than defense, and the Yankees have trotted horrible defenders out, time and time again.

Earlier this offseason I penned a couple of posts discussing the similarities and differences of both Andy Pettitte and Derek Lowe. At those stages, both pitchers were being heavily pursued by the Yankees and it seemed more than likely that only one of them would don pinstripes. Many were calling for Lowe to join a “super-rotation” already featuring CC Sabathia, Chien-Ming Wang, A.J. Burnett, and Joba Chamberlain. A few commenters aptly asked what the big difference was between Lowe and Pettitte.

In fact, some outright claimed that Pettitte was the better decision because a) his stats and projection were not unsimilar to those of Lowe, and b) Pettitte would only require a 1-yr deal. Lowe eventually signed a 4-yr/$60 mil deal with the Braves that came very close to properly valuing his projected contributions.

Over the last three seasons, Lowe has averaged +4.4 wins, with Pettitte at +4.2. Factoring in a bit of decline, both appear to be capable of 3.6-4.0 wins next season. At +3.8 wins, Pettitte’s fair market value is $17.1 mil. At +3.4, $15.3 mil. And, at +2.8, $12.6. Why those numbers? Well, Pettitte signed yesterday for $5.5 mil guaranteed with incentives potentially bumping the deal up to $12 mil. Those different win calculations were examples of my own thinking out loud to see how the Yankees are valuing his contributions.

I would venture a guess that the incentives are very easily reachable for someone with Pettitte’s track record. Otherwise, I’m sure he would have worked harder to increase the guaranteed portion of the contract. The Yankees are adding someone with similar win value to that of Lowe, for one year, and a lower average annual value. And, they are apparently paying a +3.7 or so win player as a +2.6 win player, assuming the incentives kick in.

Many are claiming that Pettitte is the “fifth” starter. Well, for all intents and purposes, that is one extremely good fifth starter given his likely #2 or #3 spot on 70% of the remaining teams out there. His signing isn’t blocking anyone outside of, say, Phil Hughes, but perhaps the team feels he needs another year split between the bullpen and rotation before he is deemed ready. Either way, Pettitte’s contract is up after this year, so the roadblock will go away. Overall, a great contract for the Yankees. Many people underestimate how effective Pettitte can be.

At just 23 years of age, Joba Chamberlain has already proven himself to be an incredibly dominating force. In 124.1 big-league innings, the Nebraska native has posted a 2.49 FIP exceeded by a 2.17 ERA. He has been fanning batters at a rate of 11 per nine innings while keeping his BB/9 right around 3.2. Despite these gaudy numbers, where he belongs is actually discussed much more than what he has done.

The Joba camp is split: some want him in the rotation while others feel he best serves the team in a setup man capacity. As RJ showed not too long ago, outside of closers, most other relievers simply are not worth that many wins. Ryan Madson had a very solid season and produced no more than +1.3 wins. It’s tough to surpass the production of Hong-Chih Kuo, and he managed +2.4 wins.

Last season, Kuo posted a 2.28 FIP in 80 innings. Is Joba’s projection as a reliever really that much better than Kuo’s 2008 performance, even with the added leverage taken into account? Unless the level of important in his innings are absolutely off the charts, I cannot see Joba as anything north of +2.6 wins as a reliever.

For his best utilization to come as a reliever, his projection as a starter would need to be below that output. The projections on our site are quite low for Joba, but a compromise of 150 IP at a 3.68 FIPRA, in his 9.35 run environment, pegs him at +3.8 wins. In other words, if he suffers a vast decline in FIP with the added workload, Chamberlain still ends up over a full win more productive as a member of the rotation.

How would he produce below +2.6 wins as a starter in 150 IP? He would need approximately a 4.40 FIPRA in 150 innings, which translates to a 4.10 FIP, to be exactly +2.6 wins. Basically, the only way it makes any sense to use him out of the bullpen is if the Yankees think Chamberlain can really surpass Kuo’s 2008 season or if, for whatever reason, they feel his numbers will sharply dropoff to a 4.10 FIP. In other words, it would take an awful lot for his usage in the bullpen to make sense.

Just like Johan Santana in 2003, Joba is much too good to be used as a one-inning reliever. If he fails as a starter, fine, put him in during the eighth inning, but do not waste the electric stuff of this 23-yr old phenom without at least trying.

Earlier today, we took a look at the potential super-rotation the New York Yankees may feature next year. They already signed CC Sabathia to a monster deal and are considered the front-runners for both A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe. With Mike Mussina retiring, and Andy Pettitte’s uncertainty, the aforementioned three would join forces with Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain to improve the rotation by approximately six full wins above replacement.

Brian Cashman left the Winter Meetings today to fly to Texas, in order to make a final offer to Andy Pettitte. The one-year offer is believed to be worth $10 mil, a paycut from Pettitte’s $16 mil salary in 2008. While Andy has not discussed wanting more than his fee last season, he has made it clear that he does not want to take a paycut. Cashman said that the offer for Pettitte would be to claim the final spot in the starting rotation. Assuming that the decision here is between Lowe and Pettitte, let’s weigh the pros and cons.

First off, what are their true talent level projections for 2009? Marcel forecasts Lowe to produce a 3.67 FIP in 185 IP. I would bump that up to around 3.80 given that he is going from the NL to the AL, so we can call him a 3.80 FIP pitcher in 185 IP. Compared to the replacement level, with a slight reward for pitching all those innings himself, and not allowing a poor reliever to enter, those numbers translate to +35 runs, +3.5 WAR.

Pettitte is projected to log 182 innings, with a 3.98 FIP. To make the comparison a bit easier, let’s bump him up to 185 IP, the same figure as Lowe, with a 4.00 FIP. Factoring in the same replacement level and slight reward, Pettitte in 2009 comes out to +31 runs, +3.1 WAR.

Therefore, Lowe is worth a bit under a half-win better than Pettitte based on their true talent levels. The fair market value for each, assuming $4.8 mil/win, would be $16.8 mil for Lowe and $14.9 mil for Pettitte. Replacing Lowe with Pettitte in the super-rotation will cost them 0.4 wins, meaning they would be worth +19.4 wins as opposed to +13.8 in 2008. This is still a substantial improvement, meaning the differences between Pettitte and Lowe are not that significant.

In terms of salary, however, it isn’t likely that either will earn their fair market value. As I mentioned earlier, Pettitte is being offered a take-it-or-leave-it, 1-yr/$10 mil deal. With a 10% discount rate factored in for the security of a long-term deal, Lowe would sign for 3-yrs/45 mil, or 4-yrs/60 mil. Therefore, that extra half-win of Lowe’s value would cost around $5 mil.

As commenter Steve Sanders pointed out, though, signing Pettitte instead of Lowe would give Cashman greater flexibility in the future. Pettitte would sign for a 1-yr deal, be an above average pitcher less than a half of a win worse than Lowe, and after this season, come off the books, freeing up more money to be spent elsewhere. In the past, Cashman would sign a plethora of players to multi-year deals, hamstringing himself in the process.

With Lowe, if we assume a dropoff of 0.35 wins per year, over the course of a 3-yr deal, he would go from 3.50 to 3.15 in 2010, to 2.80 in 2011. Perhaps the contention of those fans in favor of bringing back Pettitte for the 1-yr deal as opposed to signing Lowe is that they will get similar value in 2009, and be able to avoid paying $15 mil to a 2.80 win player in 2011, when some of their prospects may be ready for full-time rotation duty.

What say you, Yanks fans? Do you want Pettitte back for one year, or Lowe for a few years?

Yesterday, the New York Yankees signed CC Sabathia to a 7-yr deal worth approximately $161 mil. With a +5.5 win projection for 2009, and the more realistic $4.8 mil/win given the current economy, Sabathia’s fair market value would have been around $26 mil. Factor in a 10% discount rate for a long-term deal and a 7-yr contract comes out to $164 mil, extremely close to the actual terms of the signing. Brian Cashman mentioned how serious he felt about pitching and getting Sabathia definitely cemented that feeling in the minds of Yankees fans.

The signing of Sabathia piqued the interest of Derek Lowe, whose interest in pitching in New York grew following the move. On top of that, the Yankees reportedly have a 5-yr offer on the table for A.J. Burnett worth about $85 mil. Yes, the Yankees are apparently the front-runners for three of arguably the top four free agents in this class. If I see a report placing them atop the list off potential suitors for Mark Teixeira, my head just might explode.

A couple of weeks ago, I discussed what a potential new look Atlanta Braves rotation would produce, given their acquisition of Javier Vazquez and supposed guaranteed fifth-year for Burnett. Let’s do the same for the Yankees. For the sake of this post, we are going to assume all of the following:

1) Cashman signs Lowe and Burnett
2) Wang is fully recoverd and makes 30+ starts
3) Chamberlain pitches at least 140-150 IP in 25+ GS
4) Andy Pettitte does not return

The Yankees rotation in 2009 would then consist of: CC Sabathia, Derek Lowe, A.J. Burnett, Joba Chamberlain, and Chien-Ming Wang. Can anyone say super-rotation even before looking at the numbers?

Sabathia, Lowe, and Burnett have been discussed here before in dollar valuation articles. CC is a +5.5 win pitcher in 2009. With a 3.80 FIP in 187 innings, and a few more runs added for logging innings, Burnett would be +3.5. Lowe is projected to post a 3.67 FIP in 185 IP, but the switching of leagues from the Dodgers to the Yankees should bump that up a bit. If we call him a 3.80 FIP pitcher in 185 IP, he is virtually the same as Burnett, +3.5 wins.

Wang previously established himself capable of a heavy workload, and, if healthy in 2009, I see no reason why he couldn’t meet his Bill James projection of 200 IP at a 3.90 FIP. This makes Wang, with a few more runs for amassing 200 innings, a +3.5 win pitcher. And if Joba can manage a 3.30 FIP in 145 IP, he would also be a +3.5 win pitcher. For those keeping score at home, that gives the Yankees a +5.5 win pitcher and four +3.5 win pitchers in their potential super-rotation.

Put together, that is +19.5 wins. How does that compare to the 2008 rotation?

Well, due to injuries and such, the 2008 rotation was piecework at best. Outside of full contributions from Pettitte and Mussina, the Yankees got 12 starts from Joba and 15 from Wang. They received 105 Rasner-innings, 34 from Hughes, and 36 from Kennedy. Ponson managed to pitch 79 innings as well.

Mussina was top dog in 2008, at +4.7 wins. Pettitte came in second at +3.9 wins. Wang and Chamberlain, albeit in limited starting duty, were worth +1.9 wins each. Rasner was a +0.9 win pitcher and Hughes came in at +0.5. Ponson and Kennedy were the definition of replacement level. All told, this 2008 starting staff combined for +13.8 wins.

If we round 2009 up to +20 wins and 2008 up to +14 wins, then putting together this potential rotation would add six whole wins to their 2008 total, in the rotation alone. We aren’t even talking about defensive upgrades or other moves for the offense. You might think that six wins doesn’t seem like all that much given the quality of Sabathia, Burnett, and Lowe; however, if all other things remained constant, those six wins would have given the Yankees 95 wins in 2008, not 89. They are still making moves elsewhere to strengthen other facets of the club, but if Cashman can pull this off, the 2009 Yankees will be very, very good.

Bobby Abreu has had an incredibly consistent career, at least from an offensive standpoint. From 1998-2007, his OBP never fell below the .393 mark. He has knocked in 98 or more runners each year since 1999. In that same span he has never recorded less than 35 doubles, a walk rate below 14.5%, or a BABIP lower than .327. Additionally, in the ten seasons from 1999-2008, Abreu has hit the 20 HR-20 SB mark eight times, even reaching the 30-30 mark on two of those occasions. For his career, he is right around a .300/.400/.500 slash line, with 241 home runs, 318 stolen bases, and a WPA/LI of 37.03. When he decides to retire, he will be remembered as a great offensive player, one who never truly became the superstar many felt he could become, but who still put together quite the impressive resume.

Some of these numbers have taken a turn for the worse over the last two seasons, however. His OBP fell to .369 in 2007 and .371 in 2008. His ISO has dropped from .242 in 2004 to .176 right now, which is higher than the .162 posted the year prior. Primarily known for having a great eye at the plate, Abreu’s ability to lay off of pitches out of the zone has diminished as well, as his O-Swing% has risen from 10% in 2005 to 16% over the past two seasons. Almost a direct result, the walk rate, never before lower than 14.5%, was 12.2% in 2007, and just 10.7% in 2008. Essentially, this is a case of an aging player losing the skills that make him effective.

Abreu is now a 34-yr old free agent, who will turn 35 during Spring Training of 2009. According to recent reports, he is seeking a deal worth 45 million dollars spread over three seasons. The Yankees and Mets are both seemingly shying away from his asking price, which brings forth the idea that he just is not worth the investment. If so, what exactly is he worth?

From 2006-08, his WPA/LI is an aggregate 5.73. Using some weighting, I am quite comfortable deeming him as a true talent 1.8 win above average player. Defensively, however, is another story. Via the + – system, Bobby has either been the worst, or among the worst, rightfielders in baseball over the past three seasons, posting a -14, -14, and -24. We’ll call him a true talent -17 fielder, which amounts to about 1.5 wins. Before any adjustments are even made, we are now looking at a player worth about 0.3 wins above average. As a corner outfielder, though, -0.5 wins must be docked via a positional adjustment, and +2.0 wins must be added to give us a total above a replacement player. 1.8 + 2.0 – 0.5 – 1.5 = 1.8.

With this in mind, Bobby Abreu is worth about 1.8 wins above a replacement player. Multiply that total by the 5.5 million dollar per win free agency rate, and the grand total is 9.9 million, which will be rounded up to 10 million. Essentially, based on his true talent level right now, if Abreu were to sign a one year deal, a fee of ten million dollars would be appropriate. Since he is seeking a three-year deal, a 10% discount rate comes into play, deeming an appropriate contract worth 27 million dollars over three seasons. Abreu is currently seeking about 18 million dollars more than he is worth. If some team can convince him to serve as a DH, then his asking price may not be in the realm of the absurd, but 15 million dollars per year for a very bad defensive corner outfielder currently losing the offensive skills that allow him to stay in the lineup should not be very realistic.

Abreu was my favorite Phillies player growing up, and my second favorite player to Greg Maddux, but at this stage in the game, he just isn’t worth what he is asking.