Tyler Glasnow Addresses His 2015 FanGraphs Scouting Report

Tyler Glasnow was 21 years old and full of promise as he sat atop our 2015 Pittsburgh Pirates Top Prospects list when it was published in January of that year. Our then-lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel gave plus grades to both Glasnow’s heater and his hook, opining that the tall right-hander had no. 2 starter potential.

Despite an injury history that includes Tommy John surgery, Glasnow has largely lived up to expectations. Drafted 152nd overall in 2011 out of William S. Hart High School in Santa Clarita, California, he was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays in July 2018 (a deadline deal Pirates fans would love to forget) and logged a 3.20 ERA and 3.10 FIP over 71 starts in his five-plus seasons there. Subsequently swapped to the Los Angeles Dodgers in December 2023, Glasnow has a 3.47 ERA and a 3.28 FIP over 31 starts with his current club. He is top-of-the-rotation quality when fully fit, but he has had trouble staying healthy. Just this season, he was out from late April until early July with shoulder inflammation.

What did Glasnow’s 2015 FanGraphs scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think about it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what McDaniel wrote and asked Glasnow to respond to it.

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“Glasnow was drafted in the fifth round out of high school in 2011 as a low-profile pure-projection bet with fringy-to-average stuff and a limited track record.”

“That’s probably pretty accurate,” Glasnow replied. “I was fifth round, just more projectable, and throwing 89-91 [mph]. I had a decent curveball, but it wasn’t very good yet. My stuff was decent for high school, but compared to pro ball, not really. I was lower velo, mostly just two pitches, and I had a very bad changeup.”

“He blew up in 2013, dominating Low-A with a fastball that hit 97 mph. He continued his progress at High-A in 2014, sitting 93-96 mph and hitting 98 mph.”

“Pretty accurate,” he agreed. “I was growing into myself. A little bit of it was mechanical. I used to be really long and late, and I just got more on time. I definitely got a little bit stronger. I got drafted at 17, so it would have been a combination of age and improved mechanics.”

“A plus curveball and improving changeup.”

“The curveball has always been there,” he said of his top-notch breaker. “The changeup has never improved. It was always bad, so I just stopped throwing it. I think the last time I threw one was probably 2019 — that was just one or two — but it was 2017 or 2018 when I stopped, for the most part. I messed around with a split a little bit, but I never… I didn’t like it.”

(Statcast last tracked a changeup from Glasnow in 2023, when it says he threw five, to go along with 34 in 2021, 45 in 2020, and 32 in 2019. Either way, he was hardly throwing it during those years, and over the last two seasons, he has completely abandoned it.)

“Glasnow’s long limbs create some command/delivery challenges that he’s already made a lot of progress with.”

“That was when, 2015? Yes. It was better than it was early, for sure,” said Glasnow, who stands 6-foot-8. “My walk rate went down every year. I did still have rough spots around that point. In 2016 and 2017 it kind of sucked again, and then it got better. I think a little bit of [the command issue] was not being super confident. And then the delivery, the repeatability.

“I was always so hit and miss every start, and I didn’t have a grip on why I was bad certain starts,” he said when asked to elaborate on his lack of confidence. “I just didn’t have a lot of control of my body. I’d say 2015 was a good year, so it was fine — even if a little hit or miss — but 2016 and 2017 in the big leagues it wasn’t so good. I think that’s when my confidence was at its lowest. I got traded in 2018, and then it got better.”

“His velo was down a tick in the AFL, with his command and offspeed pitches now quite the same, but that appeared to just be fatigue from a long season for a skinny kid still adding bulk to his frame.”

“I don’t remember being super fatigued,” he said. “I think a big issue is that there were so many times in the minor leagues where I would have a good month, a bad month, a good month. Mechanically, things would just kind of… it was just hard to throw hard. I don’t even know what I was doing. But it was inconsistent. The Fall League was just one of those months where I sucked. I just didn’t feel very good. Yeah, it wasn’t great.”

“Has an uncanny ability to command his curveball, something I’ve only seen from José Fernández among prospects at this level.”

“I did well in 2014,” he recalled. “I still had a fairly high walk rate, but my curveball was good for strikes. I only threw two pitches, so it was decent in 2014 for sure. Some days it was terrible, but in a lot of others it was good.”

“There’s no. 2 starter upside, with less risk each the day.”

“I think when I was good, it was pretty obvious that I was good,” Glasnow said. “When I was bad, it was pretty obvious that I was bad. I guess at that time it was a fair assessment.”

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Previous “Old Scouting Reports Revisited” interviews can be found through these links: Shane Baz, Cody Bellinger, Matthew Boyd, Dylan Cease, Matt Chapman, Erick Fedde, Kyle Freeland, Max Fried, Lucas Giolito, Randal Grichuk, Ian Happ, Jordan Hicks, Jeff Hoffman, Tanner Houck, Matthew Liberatore, Tyler Mahle, Sean Newcomb, Bailey Ober, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Joe Ryan, Max Scherzer, Marcus Semien.