As I write this, the Mets are a couple games back from a National League wild-card slot. They’re also just a couple games out of first place in the NL East, and they’re beating the Nationals in the eighth inning. As I wrote that, the lead was blown, and now things are all tied up, but the bigger point is that things are close. Regardless of how the game ends today, the Mets have a good shot at going to the playoffs. It’s true that the Nationals have been hurt by injuries. But the Mets, too, have had to deal with a lot of problems, so it’s not like they’re just benefiting from Washington’s misfortune. It’s a winnable division, and oh, by the way, here’s a screenshot of Bryce Harper, and a screenshot of his subsequent swing:

So there’s a sense of urgency. I see now the Mets are losing to the Nationals, 4-3. That’s bad. Anyway, there’s a sense of urgency, as people want the Mets to upgrade so that they don’t waste the pitching they’re getting. Due in part to all those injuries, the lineup has struggled. The Mets could use a bat, and in left field, they’ve got an aching Michael Cuddyer and a handful of backups. There are some rumors connecting the Mets to second-tier outfielders on the market, like Gerardo Parra and Will Venable. Yet there’s also some momentum to stay internal. The Mets, it seems, are now thinking more about promoting top prospect Michael Conforto. It could even happen within the next 24 hours. The hope is that Conforto might provide the jolt the offense so desperately needs. It would save the front office from having to make a trade.

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It’s no secret that the St. Louis Cardinals have a pretty good team this year. Their 59-34 record is easily the best in baseball, as are their 98.8% playoff odds. Yet, for all that’s right with the Cardinals, there’s been one gaping hole in their lineup of late: first base.

Since Matt Adams‘ season came to an end when he tore his quad in late May, the Cardinals have had a tough time filling the he left void at first base. Most of the plate appearances have fallen to Mark Reynolds, who’s managed just an unspectacular 95 wRC+ from the position. Xavier Scruggs and Dan Johnson have also kicked in a combined 46 plate appearances of sub-80 wRC+ work.

To help sure up their first-base situation, the Cards called up prospect Stephen Piscotty, who was hitting a strong .272/.366/.475 in Triple-A Memphis. Although the Cardinals have mostly deployed him as an outfielder in the minors, the plan appears to be for him to slot in at first base for the time being. Unlike many of the guys who have gotten the call over the past couple of months, Piscotty’s not a consensus top-tier prospect. Although he did manage to crack the top 50 in both Baseball Prospectus’ and John Sickels’ mid-season lists. Our very own Kiley McDaniel had him 81st in the preseason.

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At some point in the next 10 days, The Cincinnati Reds are going to trade Johnny Cueto, and some contender is going to get perhaps the best pitcher available for the stretch run. Nearly every team that’s in need of a starting pitcher has been linked to Cueto at some point, and the Reds won’t have any shortage of suitors vying for his services. But where does he fit best, and who should bid the most to secure him as their ace for the rest of the season?

First off, let’s just acknowledge that basically every contender in baseball could use Johnny Cueto; no one has four starters at his level, so he’d slide right into the front of every team’s playoff rotation, and would start the first game of a playoff series for most of them. But for some teams, he’d represent a larger upgrade than some others, and there are some teams that could use pitching that may very well be better off going in another direction than paying the price for Cueto.

At the top of that list, I’d probably put the Los Angeles Dodgers. They clearly need a starting pitcher or three, especially with Brett Anderson leaving his start early on Tuesday night, and really, his history of health problems made it unlikely that the team should count on him giving them significant innings in October even before that. Given their resources and their position at the top of the NL West, it seems very likely that the Dodgers will make a move to upgrade their rotation, but I don’t know that Cueto is the best option for them.

Part of the appeal of landing a guy at Cueto’s level is that you’re adding a guy who can match up with other team’s aces; you pay a premium to get Cueto because he’s going to have a larger impact in the postseason than he will in the regular season. Except the Dodgers already have the best pitcher in baseball and the guy pitching like the best pitcher in baseball right now; on the Dodgers, Cueto might actually be the #3 starter behind Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke.

There’s nothing wrong with having a great #3 starter, but that means in the first round, Cueto would only make one start. Paying the price to obtain an ace with the potential to only use him for one game in the first round probably isn’t worth it, and the Dodgers may very well be better off getting two lesser starters to fill the last two spots in their playoff rotation rather than going for one more elite starter to team with the two they already have.

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Between the All-Star break and the trade deadline, most starting pitchers make only a couple starts. For starting pitchers who could be on the move, the small timeframe places those starts under a microscope for those anticipating a trade. Teams wanting to trade for the starter want to ensure that they are getting a pitcher at the peak of his abilities to help with the last few months of the regular season and potentially the playoffs. For the best two starting pitchers on the market, Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels, recent performance has begun to raise questions about their trade value. Whether recent performances have hurt their trade value is debatable, but we can look over the past few seasons and determine whether other pitchers have gone through a dip in performance prior to a trade and compare that performance after the trade.

Some have asserted that Hamels’ last two starts hurt his trade value. While he has given up 14 runs in less than seven combined innings in his last two starts, his underlying stuff (which is great) has not been affected, there was an extended layoff between the two starts due to the All-Star break, and in the outing prior to those starts, Hamels threw seven shutout innings with six strikeouts against no walks. Hamels does have a 3.91 ERA this season, but his 3.37 FIP is still in line with his stellar career numbers.

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The trading deadline is nearly upon us, and if history is a guide, there could be a dizzying amount of player movement in the coming days. This season appears to be unique in a couple of ways. There seems to be a somewhat historic mismatching of pure buyers and sellers, in large part due to the insanity of the American League wild-card race, with no team further than eight games under .500 or out of the wild-card lead. Purely by definition, is there a sure seller in the bunch?

This week, we’ll preview the deadline in a somewhat unique manner. Instead of focusing solely on club’s holes and potential targets, we’ll hone in on them from their respective talent arsenals to be drawn upon to make deadline deals. Which clubs are best — and worst — positioned to land the most attractive prizes on the market?

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“I’ll be honest. I think pulling the ball is the best way to get hits,” Charlie Blackmon said before a game against the Athletics, as we went over the various changes in his hitting profile from year to year. Maybe that’s baseball 101, but going the opposite way has its prominent supporters.

In the age of the shift, though, is Blackmon’s assertion itself still so obvious? Pull the ball a ton and you’ll end up seeing more defenders where you want the ball to go. Unless you have a certain skill that has fallen out of favor in baseball.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at Oakland | 22:05 ET
Doubront (14.0 IP, 77 xFIP-) vs. Gray (129.2 IP, 86 xFIP-)
While the author is unable to cite any such documents specifically, reason dictates that there are probably hundreds or even thousands of tirelessly researched and scrupulously peer-reviewed scientific papers all of which conclude that human decision-making is a largely arbitrary endeavor. Today, instead of continuing to ignore this difficult truth, the reader has an opportunity to embrace it — by watching Toronto left-hander Felix Doubront pitch for some reason. Doubront has produced two curious starts for the Blue Jays, conceding just a single walk against 52 batters while recording a 69.0% ground-ball rate — this, however, while also allowing eight runs over just 11.2 innings. A compelling blend of success and failure, that. As to whether it’s a reason for watching Doubront, however — let’s regard this concern as moot for the moment.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

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The All-Star Game is behind us, which means everyone now is paying attention to the coming trade deadline. The appeal, I think, is about two things: One, we’re just engineered to crave roster change. Two, we’re led to believe this is when winners are made. Or at least, this is when winners do something that puts them over the hump; and this is when losers can try to collect prospects. For the next week and a half, the trade deadline will be the most important thing. Regardless of whether it deserves that status, this is the annual routine. Right now, it’s all about possible moves.

Related to that, Bob Nightengale caused a stir with his report that the Detroit Tigers might sell — and might therefore sell David Price. It’s significant not just because the Tigers don’t usually sell, but also because Price is an ace, and available aces are diamonds every July. Consensus is that there’s no sexier addition than a No. 1 starter, which is why there’s also so much attention on Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels. And Jeff Samardzija and James Shields, and so on. The idea is that a front-line starter becomes even more valuable in the playoffs. And people are inclined to believe that, in the playoffs, pitching is what matters most. So this time of year, the supposedly most desirable pieces are the best and most durable arms.

This calls for a simple analysis. Actually, this calls for a very deep and thorough analysis, but I’m not very good at those. A simple analysis is the fallback. Front-line starters have been traded midseason before. What’s happened with the teams that got them?

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