Archive for 2017

 
Welcome to All-Star week, which around here means it’s once again time for our annual Trade Value series. I’ve been doing this project now for 13 years, dating back to 2005, and have been doing it here since 2008. The project has grown in scope over time, but thanks to help from friends like Dan Szymborski and Sean Dolinar, I think the current presentation is as good as it’s ever been.

For those new to the series, the list is an attempt to answer the question of who would bring back the most in trade for his team if he were to be put on the market and made available before the deadline. Because different teams have varying resources and roster needs, we’re not saying that if one player is ranked ahead of another player, the team with the lower-ranked player would make a one-for-one swap for the higher-ranked player; there are some teams that will put more of a premium on short-term value while others who are looking to maximize long-term potential, and salary is a larger factor for some organizations than others. Of course, every team would love to have a player who contributes both now and in the future, and does so without consuming a large part of their budget; guys who check all of those boxes will rank at the very top of this list.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Milwaukee at New York AL | 13:05 ET
Nelson (104.0 IP, 77 xFIP-) vs. Tanaka (97.2 IP, 87 xFIP-)
For the second straight day, the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm has selected a Brewers-Yankees games as the day’s most compelling. Each club’s probability of taking their division remains within shouting distance of 50% by the coin-flip method (which seems to best model how the dumb human mind conceives of a playoff race). Accordingly, both clubs are confronted by a sense of mounting urgency.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.

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Four years ago, Manny Margot was 18 years old and playing against older competition in short-season ball. He was more than holding his own. Equal parts precocious and promising, he was one of the highest-ceiling prospects in the Red Sox system. Intrigued by the parallels, I wrote an article titled Manuel Margot: Boston’s Next Bogaerts?

That never came to fruition. Following the 2015 season, Margot was sent to the Padres as part of the package that delivered Craig Kimbrel to the AL East. The change of scenery has been to his liking. One year removed from a stellar season in Triple-A, the native of San Cristobal, Dominican Republic is now San Diego’s starting centerfielder.

While some things have changed, others remain the same. In 2013, Margot told me the game is “all enthusiasm” for him, and that he “never wants to leave this dream.” He echoed those thoughts when I caught up to him earlier this week.

“You always have to play happy,” Margot told me with the help of Padres translator (and Baseball Operations assistant) David Longley. “That doesn’t change as you go through baseball. You’re going to go through some bad streaks, but you put on a good face and those bad times are going to get better. Always play happy.” Read the rest of this entry »

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.
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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Milwaukee at New York AL | 13:05 ET
Suter (21.0 IP, 93 xFIP-) vs. Severino (99.2 IP, 70 xFIP-)
This game — or at least the appeal of this game as measured by the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm — is the product of multiple improbable outcomes. Like the outcome of the Milwaukee Brewers ascending to and retaining a hold of first place in the NL Central, for one. And like the outcome of Brent Suter recording better-than-average run-prevention and fielding-independent numbers over any quantity of major-league innings, for another. And like the outcome of life arising from non-living matter and then, a billion years or whatever later, having arms and legs and hats and buildings.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.

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Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan discuss the correct all-time leaderboard of non-qualified offensive seasons, Carlos Correa’s complaint about Roberto Osuna, and the state of the race between the Brewers and Cubs. Then they call former big leaguer Glenn Borgmann, who caught for the Twins and White Sox from 1972-1980, to ask about being behind the plate for the game with the most stolen bases by one team in the live-ball era, being involved in the big Bobby Grich brawl, playing with Bert Blyleven, Rod Carew, and Lyman Bostock, facing Nolan Ryan, handling his relegation to a backup role by a 20-year-old rookie, and more.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks are a playoff team. They probably aren’t a division-winning team, with the Los Angeles Dodgers surging ahead, but sitting roughly 10 games clear in the current Wild Card standings — or around six if you believe the Chicago Cubs will overtake the Milwaukee Brewers at some point — the team has about a 90% shot to make the playoffs. Given their place in the standings, it’s probably fair to consider the Diamondbacks a good team.

The Diamondbacks have also seen three different general managers over the last four seasons. They’ve certainly lacked continuity, but the muddled visions of three front offices have brought them here. Doling out credit and blame to one person or even two or three is a difficult task when we are talking about the construction of a baseball team. In any organization, myriad personnel play a huge part in acquiring players. Once those players are acquired, many more people play a role in developing them to put the best collection of talent on the field.

With that out of the way, let’s focus today on the acquisition portion of the equation and divide those acquisitions into three eras: pre-Tony La Russa and Dave Stewart, La Russa and Stewart, and Mike Hazen. But before we do that, let’s just take a moment to establish that the Diamondbacks are, in fact, good. Six weeks ago, Dave Cameron said it was time to take the Diamondbacks seriously. Since that time, the team has continued to win, improving its position with regard to securing a place in the postseason.

In his piece, Cameron noted that a number of hitters on the Diamondbacks roster were playing a bit over their heads and we could expect some regression. Several Diamondbacks pitchers have pitched well above projections from earlier this season — in particular, Zack Godley, Zack Greinke, and Taijuan Walker, with Robbie Ray’s solid pitching only a bit above expectations.

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If you don’t follow the Padres, this might be the first time you’ve heard of Phil Maton. For that reason, we’ll start with the pronunciation of his name — it’s “May-tawn” — and the fact that he’s a 24-year-old right-hander whom San Diego drafted 597th overall in 2015 out of Louisiana Tech. Since being called up from Triple-A last month, he’s made 12 relief appearances, 11 of which have been scoreless.

And then there’s his calling card. Over 10.1 big-league innings, Maton’s four-seam spin rate has been 2,446 rpm, which is well above the MLB average of 2,222 rpm. For him, it’s actually lower than usual. According to Padres beat writer Dennis Lin, Maton’s spin rate was 2,572 in the minors last year, which would have ranked second to Matt Bush among big-league pitchers who threw at least 500 four-seam fastballs.

I saw the pitch in action, in Cleveland, on July 5. Facing the Indians, Maton threw 22 fastballs and three sliders while retiring five of the six batters he faced. He fanned three, with all of the strikeouts coming on his four-seam. Per usual, the pitch sat around 93 mph.

I talked to Maton prior to the game. Later, I spoke both with his pitching coach, Darren Balsley, and San Diego’s primary catcher, Austin Hedges. Those conversations centered around Maton’s explosive fastball and his work-in-progress slider. I also touched base with three of the Cleveland batters he faced — Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, and Bradley Zimmer — to get their first impressions of the up-and-coming right-hander.

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Phil Maton: “I didn’t find out about [the spin rate] until I got drafted. When I was in short-season ball, the video guys told me that my spin rate was one of the highest they’d ever seen. At the time, I didn’t really think much of it. I was like, ‘Alright, cool, but I don’t really know how that helps me out.’ As I’ve progressed, I’ve realized that is what allows me to pitch up in the zone. My four-seam carries a little better, carries longer, than the average person’s four-seam.

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Fringe Five Scoreboards: 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013.

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion among the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, John Sickels*, and (most importantly) lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen and also who (b) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on any updated list — such as the revised top 100 released in by Baseball America or BP’s recent midseason top-50 list — will also be excluded from eligibility.

*All 200 names!

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

Sandy Baez, RHP, Detroit (Profile)
Signed for just $49,000 out of the Dominican in 2011, Baez is the rare example of a pitcher with both strong statistical indicators and physical tools who doesn’t also occupy a place near the top of industry prospect lists. The 23-year-old right-hander has had strong 2017 campaign, especially of late. Over his last five starts — a span of 29.2 innings and 117 batters — Baez has recorded strikeout and walk rates of 35.9% and 8.6%, respectively, never striking out fewer than 30% of opposing hitters in any individual start.

When Eric Longenhagen assessed the Detroit system this offseason, he cited Baez’s fastball as a strength but the secondaries as a weakness. Velocity remains an asset. According to Baez and his coaches, however, both his changeup and slider seem to have exhibited some indications of improvement.

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Baseball is flush with randomness. Time and time again, we trick ourselves into believing we have a good sense of what’s going to happen next, armed with an ever-growing arsenal of measurements, metrics, and projections. Yet, without fail, baseball constantly finds a way to catch us by surprise. One of those surprises has taken St. Louis by storm the last couple of weeks. First baseman Luke Voit debuted for the Cardinals on June 25th and has proceeded to hit .333/.379/.704 between then and now. He’s currently sporting a 179 wRC+, which as the title suggests, is one of the best in baseball among batters with at least 29 plate appearances.

Of course, 29 plate appearances is too few to tell us much of anything about what Voit will do going forward. Luckily, Voit has a lengthy minor-league track record that can. And now that you’ve fallen for the clickbaity title, you’re stuck reading about it.

While surprising, Voit’s performance didn’t come completely out of nowhere. He was a good hitter in the minors, amassing over 30 homers since the start of 2015. He slashed .322/.406/.561 at Triple-A this year and .297/.372/,477 in 2016 at Double-A. Voit also managed to keep his strikeout rate comfortably below 20%, which allowed him to hit for both average and power.

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