Archive for 2017

Major League Baseball has been floating a bunch of different ideas lately to help improve the game: automatic intentional walks, starting a runner on second in extra innings, and one that would likely have the most impact, raising the lower bounds of the strike zone.

If you feel like you’ve heard that last one before, it’s because you almost definitely have. Jon Roegele has been chronicling the expansion of the strike zone for years. It’s not just him, though. Just last year, there were reports that MLB planned to raise the strike zone. In response, August Fagerstrom discussed who might be affected the most. August isn’t around these parts anymore, so consider this post your update on the pitchers who might be negatively affected by a slightly higher strike zone.

First, consider the visuals below. They’re from a 2014 piece by Roegele and were reproduced by Fagerstrom last year. They documents how the strike zone has expanded downward over the last decade.

It’s pretty obvious from these graphs that pitches in the lower part of the zone were being called strikes more often in 2014 than five years earlier. But these images are from a couple seasons ago. Is it possible, given the talk last season about raising the strike zone, that umpires took it upon themselves to do it? To compensate for the lower-zone creep happening of late?

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If you haven’t read Ben Lindbergh’s piece on the baseball’s ever expiring secrets, I suggest you free up 15 minutes at work (or elsewhere) today.

Lindbergh’s closing point:

Maybe that’s the lesson to take from this whole sordid story. We’ve known for some time that Correa’s crimes were illegal, unethical, and punishable by many months in prison. What we might not have known makes the story sadder still: In baseball’s current climate, it’s not even clear how much hacking helps.

If you haven’t read Dave Cameron’s related post on the devaluation of ideas, I recommend you do so, because it hits on one of the greatest market inefficiencies in the game today: communication.

Wrote Cameron:

At this point, it seems the value is less in the quality or proprietary nature of a team’s ideas, and more in the vehicles that move those ideas around…. With ideas themselves no longer conveying huge advantages, it’s the ability to turn even somewhat obvious beliefs into actual action that can give an organization a legitimate, sustainable edge.

Ideas are quickly adopted today and I agree that communication is something of a market inefficiency. After all, an idea has no value without implementation. It was a salient point in my book Big Data Baseball. And it’s not always about effective top-down communication either, a front office sending an analytically based idea to be adopted by the coaching staff and players. Effective communication must also include a bottom-up channel. For instance, it was Texas Rangers manager Jeff Banister, the Pirates bench coach from 2013 to -15, who told me in reporting for the book that it was the coaches who initiated an important, data-backed tactic in 2013. It was the assistant coaches who asked data analysts to quantify a hunch they had: they wanted to know if certain pitch sequences in certain locations could make batters more uncomfortable, leading to a greater ground-ball rate.

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Thanks to the fact that MLB teams have put their wallets away this winter, we’ve seen some surprisingly low prices for remaining free agents of late. Jason Hammel signed for 2/$16M, significantly less than my 2/$24M forecast and well below the crowd’s 3/$36M estimate. Sergio Romo got 1/$3M, when I had him at 3/$18M and the crowd had him down for 2/$14M. Both the crowd and myself had Mike Napoli at 2/$20M; he’s getting 1/$8.5M instead. The February free-agent signings aren’t finding a lot of money, and the rest of the remaining free agents are mostly just hoping to find jobs.

So for teams looking to fill out their roster with flawed-but-maybe-useful role players, there are some bargains to still be found. Joe Blanton will likely be a solid reliever for someone next year, and seems unlikely to get a big contract at this point. Pedro Alvarez could help a number of teams as the left-handed portion of a DH platoon and will probably find work. Chase Utley, Angel Pagan, and Adam Lind all still look like useful bench players, and will probably not cost a lot to fill those roles. But if I had some money left in my budget and was looking for the most value I could get, I wouldn’t sign any of those guys.

I’d sign Jorge de la Rosa.

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If the Pirates are going to make it back into the playoffs, it stands to reason they could need a hell of a bullpen. It’s something they’ve leveraged before — between 2013 and 2015, when the Pirates made the playoffs in all three years, they had the highest bullpen WPA in baseball. It was one of their various subtle strengths, and it made them tougher than many predicted.

Of course, the Pirates no longer have one of the major pieces that lifted them up. Mark Melancon is on the Giants now, by way of the Nationals, who received him last July in exchange for two players. It was almost inevitable the Pirates would sell him, and many compared the move unfavorably to the haul the Yankees got for Aroldis Chapman. Yet, for one thing, look — Mark Melancon isn’t Aroldis Chapman. Don’t be ridiculous. And also, don’t sell Felipe Rivero short. Taylor Hearn is a moderately interesting prospect, but Rivero is interesting as a relief pitcher now, and he might be primed to be the Pirates’ next big thing.

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Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the anticlimactic approach of spring training and answer listener emails about baseball reductionism, investing in Little League, the Cardinals’ effect on the Cubs, transplanting Trout and Kershaw, and wearing out starters, with a statistical detour to talk about history’s most volatile hitters.

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Earlier this week, colleague Nicolas Stellini made an impassioned defense of the traditional intentional walk, which is endangered according to a Jayson Stark ESPN report. We know MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has made quickening the game’s “pace of action” one of his priorities, and Stark reported that MLB has proposed two rule changes to the MLBPA: raising the strike zone above the knees and transforming the intentional walk to an automatic one.

But it’s unclear whether these two measures, if implemented, would result in a brisker pace of play. Eliminating the traditional intentional-walk process would have little effect, as Stark notes:

“In an age in which intentional walks actually have been declining — there were just 932 all last season (or one every 2.6 games) — that time savings would be minimal. But MLB sees the practice of lobbing four meaningless pitches as antiquated, so eliminating them would serve as much as a statement as it would a practical attempt to speed up the game.”

The growth of the bottom of strike zone has also been a focus of the commissioner, who is concerned with the record levels of strikeouts and the fewer and fewer balls put in play. They’re reasonable concerns, as there is a lot of standing around in today’s game. From Stark:

“The change in the strike zone, however, could have a much more dramatic effect, MLB believes. Its intent is to produce more balls in play, more baserunners and more action at a time when nearly 30 percent of all hitters either walk or strike out — the highest rate of “non-action” in the game’s history.

Changes to the strike zone, however, could and likely would have dramatic effects and unintended consequences. The change would reduce the strike zone by an estimated 34 square inches, which according to Jon Roegele’s excellent research, would reduce the strike zone by 7.2%.

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My sense is that people used to talk about Austin Hedges more. I don’t know if that’s actually true, but I can’t imagine I’m about to be fact-checked. Hedges has long been considered a quality catcher prospect, far more for his defense than for the potency of his swing. By receiving, by game-calling, by throwing, Hedges was among the prospect elite. At the plate, he drew a few too many comparisons to players like Drew Butera. And so the reputation was cemented — Hedges could field, and do nothing else.

It’s difficult for any player to change a reputation. Prospect reputations, however, probably shouldn’t be all that sticky. Hedges, at this point, is in line to be the starting catcher for the Padres, and last season, he did the damnedest thing. It would appear that Austin Hedges just learned how to hit.

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A little over a year ago, Major League Baseball settled a class-action suit against fans who contended that blackout rules violate antitrust laws. The ramifications for not settling could have been massive, as ending the current blackout rules would prevent regional sports networks (RSNs) from claiming exclusivity over territories to air baseball games. This, in turn, would have prevented them from charging cable providers large amounts of money per subscriber to place them in the basic-cable tier — amounts that cable providers still seem (mostly) willing to pay. Instead of risking that potential financial catastrophe, MLB settled. In the process, they lowered the price of MLB.TV and offered single-team solutions. In a less notable development, the deal also included stipulations regarding in-market streaming of baseball games.

As Nathaniel Grow discussed at the time of the settlement, the lawsuit provided incentives for in-market streaming.

Finally, although not mentioned in the plaintiffs’ attorneys’ statement, Eric Fisher of the Sports Business Journal is reporting that the settlement could also pave the way towards allowing subscribers of RSNs owned by Comcast and DirecTV to stream in-market games via MLB.TV. In particular, the settlement agreement will reportedly specify that MLB cannot raise the price of its MLB.TV service until both Comcast and DirecTV reach an in-market streaming deal with MLB for their RSN subscribers.

For a few reasons, this provision wasn’t a big deal at the time at the time of the settlement. For one, preserving blackouts was probably the most important objective the settlement accomplished for MLB. Lowering the price of MLB.TV by 15% and securing lower fees for viewing just a single club’s games was also a bigger priority. Also, MLB had already agreed at the time to in-market streaming for half of the league’s RSNs — namely, those operated by FOX. For all of last season, half the league plus the Toronto Blue Jays had access to in-market streaming. The final reason the provision wasn’t that big of a deal at the time was due to when it would actually matter — i.e. one year later. Of course, that happens to be now.

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Ken Singleton is one of the most accomplished switch-hitters in history. Solid from both sides of the plate, the former Mets, Expos and Orioles outfielder slashed .282/.388/.436 from 1970 to 1984. Chase Headley isn’t of the same caliber as Singleton, but he’s a solid switch-hitter himself. Sporting fairly neutral platoon splits, the 32-year-old third baseman has slashed .263/.343/.401 in his nine-plus seasons with the Padres and the Yankees.

How they embrace their identities as a switch-hitter differ.

Singleton came to the plate 8,559 times and never once went right-on-right or left-on-left. Headley has 5,115 career plate appearances, and on 17 occasions he’s eschewed convention and gone same side against an opposing pitcher. He has three hits and three walks in those confrontations.

There are reasons for switch-hitters to make exceptions. Most commonly, it’s done against a knuckleball pitcher, with the hitter opting for his stronger side. Less frequently, it’s done to neutralize a quality changeup. More rare is a switch-hitter going same side because he’s crushing the ball from one batter’s box and swinging like a blind man from the other.

Last summer, I asked Headley and Singleton for their thoughts on these scenarios.

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On Facing Knuckleball Pitchers

Headley: “I started hitting off knuckleballers right-handed. I’ve probably had 15 at-bats that way — I decided to give it a try and had a little bit of success — but knuckleballers are just a different animal. I may go right-handed tomorrow [against Steven Wright]. Some of that would be the ballpark, and [the Green Monster].”

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