It’s fair to say that the Yankees’ 2018 home opener didn’t go quite as planned. New York City’s heaviest April snowfall since 1982 forced the postponement of Monday’s scheduled 1 pm game against the Rays, and it was made up on Tuesday afternoon under soggy, frigid conditions. In his first official game in pinstripes, Giancarlo Stanton recorded a platinum sombrero — 0-for-5 with five strikeouts — and was booed by moronic ingrates, and the vaunted Yankees bullpen blew a three-run lead. Then Didi Gregorius, who had already hit a three-run homer that created the short-lived lead, broke the game open with his second three-run blast, and later tacked on a two-run single that turned the game to an 11-4 laugher. It was an impressive, two-curtain call day for a player who often flies beneath the radar amid the Bronx Bombers’ bigger names.

Not that anyone should worry about Stanton (who launched a 458-foot homer in his first plate appearance on Wednesday), but Gregorius can relate. Tasked with replacing the iconic, Cooperstown-bound Derek Jeter as the Yankees’ shortstop, he was burdened with the weight of massive expectations and heard the Bronx boo birds and chants of “Der-ek Je-ter!” frequently in early 2015. Gradually, Gregorius has settled into the job, to the point that he’s almost overlooked, whether the point of comparison is the Yankees’ modern-day Murderer’s Row (with Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and now Stanton), a work-in-progress infield brimming with young talent and versatility, or an incredible shortstop cohort featuring Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner and now Manny Machado, all in their age-25 seasons or younger.

The 28-year-old Gregorius doesn’t quite belong at their level, but over the past three seasons, he’s a solid seventh in WAR at the position, including a career-high 3.9 WAR in 2017 (also seventh):

By WAR, Gregorius has been the most valuable Yankees position player in that span, though to be fair, that’s only because of his head start on Judge and Sanchez, who arrived for good in late 2016.

Born in Amsterdam in 1990, the grandson of Juan Gregorius, a star hurler in Curaçao in the 1950s and the son of Honkbal Hoofdklasse pitcher Johannes (Didi) Gregorius Sr. of the Amsterdam Pirates, Mariekson Julius Gregorius was raised in Curaçao from age 5, and signed by the Reds as an amateur free agent in 2007. He debuted in the majors in September 2012, but with his position blocked by Zack Cozart, he was dealt to the Diamondbacks in December of that year as part of a three-way, nine-player blockbuster involving Cleveland-bound Trevor Bauer and Cincinnati-bound Shin-Soo Choo. At the time, Diamondbacks general manager Kevin Towers audaciously compared Gregorius to the man he would eventually replace:

When I saw him, he reminded me of a young Derek Jeter. I was fortunate enough to see Jeter when he was in high school in Michigan. He’s got that type of range, he’s got speed, more of a line-drive-type hitter, and I think he’s got the type of approach at the plate and separation to where I think there’s going to be power there as well.”

After cracking the Baseball America Top 100 Prospects list in the spring of 2013, Gregorius scuffled over the course of two seasons as the Diamondbacks’ regular shortstop, hitting a combined .241/.314/.368 for an 85 wRC+ with a meager 1.8 WAR. He even spent two months back in Triple A early in 2014. After Towers was fired in September 2014, it was hardly a coincidence that Yankees GM Brian Cashman, under whom Towers had worked as a special assignment scout between GM stints in San Diego and Arizona, dealt for Gregorius in another three-team deal in December of that year.

Despite the impossible task of filling Jeter’s shoes in a figurative sense, Gregorius quickly illustrated that he could cover far more ground at shortstop than the aging superstar, whose glovework was generally notoriously overrated. While he’s had his own ups and downs in his three seasons at the position, he’s been a massive improvement upon the Captain and fill-ins such as Eduardo Nunez and Jayson Nix, who got the bulk of the work during Jeter’s injury-shortened 2013 season:

Over the last four years of the Jeter era, Yankees shortstops (all of ’em) averaged a godawful -19 DRS and -15 UZR. Over the first three years of the Gregorius era, those averages have been boosted to -3 DRS and +3 UZR. I’ve dispensed with the rounding here, but that’s a 17- or 18-run per year improvement, or nearly two wins per year. Excluding 2013, Jeter averaged 1.6 WAR over his final three full seasons, with Gregorius doubling that average during his tenure.

Indeed, though he’ll never be the on-base machine that even the latter-day Jeter was prior to his October 2012 broken ankle, Gregorius has advanced markedly as a hitter during his pinstriped tenure, from an 89 wRC+ in 2015 to 98 the next year and 107 last year. The power that Towers envisioned has indeed emerged, as his ISOs have increased from .105 to .171 to .191 in those three years, with his homer totals climbing from nine to 20 to 25. And no, that’s not just Yankee Stadium at work; while 29 of his 54 homers during that span came at home, he’s got an 86 wRC+ there (.251/.292/.415) compared to 110 on the road (.300/.335/.448). That split is driven by groundball and flyball rates that are basically reversed (38%/42% at home, 42%/37% away), a 51-point BABIP gap (.265 versus .316) and a substantial strikeout split (15.4% versus 11.8%).

Gregorius’s game has its dings, most notably an anemic walk rate (4.4% from 2015-17, 13th-lowest among the 232 hitters with at least 1,000 PA) borne of a tendency to chase (39.1% O-Zone rate, also 13th) en route to a .313 on-base percentage (56th lowest in that same set). Even so, the overall package — which includes a few extra runs per year on the bases — has developed into such a solid one that he’s become the cornerstone of a Yankees’ infield that’s otherwise unsettled. Heading into 2017, Gleyber Torres, Jorge Mateo and Tyler Wade all ranked among the team’s top prospects after spending a substantial portion of 2016 playing shortstop for either their High A or Double A affiliates. Mateo is now an Oakland Athletic via last July’s Sonny Gray trade, Wade is a utilityman whom Cashman envisions as the team’s Ben Zobrist, and Torres is the heir apparent at second base.

Gregorius, in his first year of arbitration eligibility, is making $8.25 million and has two more years under club control. And while he may not get the attention of Judge, Sanchez or Stanton, he’s probably not going anywhere anytime soon — except, perhaps, out of Jeter’s shadow, one step and one season at a time.

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Shohei Ohtani’s hot hitting start, revisit the subject of Joey Gallo bunting against the four-man outfield, and critique a retracted Trevor Rosenthal report, then answer listener emails about Bondsian starts to seasons, Tommy Pham’s prophfanity, how data-driven players may impact projections, Seth Lugo’s breakout potential, short-term tanking vs. long-term tanking, new counting-stat thresholds, a version of Giancarlo Stanton who always swings for the fences, a harebrained scheme to break the career hits record, a Mike Trout pitching hypothetical, a Triple-A/MLB role reversal, a star player out for vengeance, and more, plus a Stat Blast about the balls hit hardest by pitchers.

Audio intro: Spoon, "First Caress"
Audio outro: Roger Daltrey, "A Second Out"

Link to Russell Carleton’s article about Joey Gallo’s bunting outlook

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I don’t know if Charlie Blackmon is baseball’s most underrated player. Probably not. There are a lot of very good players. But just in case you don’t know exactly what’s up: Last season, Blackmon finished ninth among position players in WAR. Over the past three seasons, Blackmon has ranked 22nd, between George Springer and Kyle Seager. Blackmon is a center fielder who just finished with a top-30 expected wOBA. The year before that, he was in the top 40. Charlie Blackmon is very good, and, depending on your own personal thresholds, you might well say that Charlie Blackmon is great. He’s been lined up to be a part of the upcoming massive free-agent market.

But Blackmon has decided to take himself off the market entirely. Or, the team and the agency have decided, with Blackmon’s final approval. You don’t often see premium free agents sign extensions so close to the end of a contract, but Blackmon has agreed to an extra five years with the Rockies, with a $94-million guarantee. It’s more complicated than that, but the take-home point is that Blackmon is going to stick around in Colorado. Clearly, he’s fond of it there, and he’d hardly be the first player to decide that free agency appears less appealing than it used to.

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Adjectives like “impossible” and “improbable” and “unbelievable” are used quite liberally in sports broadcasting and writing — perhaps misused, even.

A walk-off win is not unbelievable; it happens semi-regularly. Likewise, winning a championship is not technically impossible for most teams (even if 11 clubs have a 0% chance of winning the World Series according to FanGraphs’ playoff odds). Nevertheless, people respond to narratives, and the overcoming-all-odds story is a popular one.

While we should employ such descriptors more sparingly, what Edwin Encarnacion did Monday night truly bordered on the improbable and impossible without sliding into hyperbole.

You’re probably aware that he hit an inside-the-park home run. While three 34-year-olds have hit inside-the-park homers since 2012 — David DeJesus, Jimmy Rollins, and Jason Bourgeois — Encarnacion is the oldest to do so in at least the past six seasons.

Here’s the video evidence:

https://gfycat.com/IdenticalBrownKookaburra

Encarnacion is not exactly fleet of foot. He’s a DH who was born in 1983. Encarnacion (25.6 feet per second) ranked 420th out of 465 MLB players in Sprint Speed last season, according to Baseball Savant’s leaderboard.

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We haven’t written very much about Jakob Junis. And that much makes sense — he hasn’t been in the majors very long, and it’s not like he’s broken any records. He plays for a team that isn’t that great, and he only found his groove last season down the stretch. Junis has never been a top prospect, and he was drafted in the 29th round. He doesn’t throw with eye-popping velocity, and he doesn’t rack up a boatload of strikeouts. Junis has done little to call attention to himself. Baseball analysts have done little to call attention to Jakob Junis.

I had a note by my computer to write about Junis all offseason long. I never did it. The timing never felt right. It feels better now, after Junis shut down the Tigers’ offense on Tuesday. It was cold, and, it was the Tigers, and the Tigers are bad. It’s not as if Junis went out and blanked the Astros. But he still spun seven shutout innings, with six strikeouts, and he threw 71% of his pitches for strikes. We’re talking about Jakob Junis now. And if you’re going to talk about Jakob Junis, you’re going to talk about his breaking ball. I’ve prepared plenty of clips from Tuesday’s outing. Just look at this stupid breaking ball.

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Pitchers learn and develop different pitches, and they do so at varying stages of their lives. It might be a curveball in high school, a cutter in college, or a slider in A-ball. Sometimes the addition or refinement is a natural progression — graduating from Pitching 101 to advanced course work — and often it’s a matter of necessity. In order to get hitters out as the quality of competition improves, a pitcher needs to optimize his repertoire.

In the second installment of this series — Part 1 can be found here — we’ll hear from three pitchers — Kyle Freeland, Jim Johnson, and Kris Medlen — on how they learned and/or developed a specific pitch.

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Kyle Freeland (Rockies) on His Changeup

“I never really threw a changeup in college. When I got into pro ball, that was our main focus to help me develop throughout the minors and get to this point. We had to find a grip that I was comfortable enough with to throw it in any count.

“It took some time. I probably went through half a dozen different grips before I finally found one that fits me, that works with my arm slot and my arm speed. It wasn’t until the end of last season that I finally found what I think works best. I had one that was working well for awhile, but it kind of tapered off. I wasn’t really comfortable throwing it off my ring finger and my pinky finger. Read the rest of this entry »

The trend in baseball is unmistakably one towards shorter starts. Pitchers compiled the fewest complete games in major-league history last year. That beat a record-low mark set the previous season, which itself had beaten a record-low established the year before that. Relievers are throwing a higher percentage of innings the ever before. Starters are, by definition, throwing fewer. The 200-inning starter is disappearing.

If his actions from this past weekend are any indication, Minnesota’s Jose Berrios seems not to care for this development. On Sunday, the young right-hander pitched a shutout, going the full nine innings while fanning six batters and conceding just three hits — and only of them prior to the ninth inning. (I’m not sure if I’m obligated to mention the Chance Sisco bunt against the shift and Brian Dozier’s odd reaction, but please consider this parenthetical as fulfillment of that obligation.) For a Twins team hoping to repeat the successes of last season, a lot hinges on the success of Berrios. He and the team got off to an awfully good start in their series win over the Baltimore Orioles.

Before getting to Berrios’s start, here is another reminder about how the game of baseball has changed over the years, particularly when it comes to bullpen use and expectations for starting pitchers. The graph below shows the number of shutouts by year since the advent of the designated hitter in 1973.

Just 25 years ago, there was pretty close to a shutout per day during the MLB regular season. A combination of expansion and the PED era greatly increased the use of relief pitchers. Coupled with increased offense, it was incredibly difficult for a starter to navigate a full game without letting the opposition score. In the early part of the last decade, as scoring decreased, we would still see a shutout every two or three days. As offense has again risen the last few years, however, shutouts have dropped — to about one per week last season.

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After a shaky spring, Shohei Ohtani was basically as advertised in his first start on the mound — which is remarkable, since he was essentially advertised as the best pitching prospect in nearly a decade.

In his debut, Ohtani maxed out at 99 mph on the fastball and averaged 97.8 mph on the same pitch while also showcasing a darting, 90 mph splitter and breaking ball. If Ohtani can approximate anything like the 19.6% swinging-strike rate of his debut and continue to exhibit solid command, he will be an ace in short order.

Ohtani’s fastball averaged 96.6 mph and 96.1 mph, respectively, his last two years in Japan. He posted 15.8% and 15.0% swinging-strike rates in his last two seasons in the NPB (his 2017 season was injury shortened). Our old friend Eno Sarris found that plate-discipline and batted-ball trends in the NPB and MLB are remarkably similar. While it’s often folly to draw too much upon small sample sizes in April, it would appear as though Ohtani has verified that his power stuff is real.

Ohtani did more verifying Tuesday.

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Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Boston Red Sox. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

We’d also like to extend our condolences to the friends and family of the late Daniel Flores, as well as the Red Sox international scouting department. We were excited to watch Daniel play baseball and can’t imagine what those who anticipated watching him grow up have dealt with since his untimely passing.

If you were to look just at Chavis’s 2016 stats and with the knowledge that he was only a viable defensive fit at first base, you’d call him a non-prospect. This dip in production was brought about by a broken finger, and in 2017, Chavis was back to taking monster hacks that produce comfortably plus raw power. He’s going to strike out, and he isn’t especially patient, but he has a good chance to get to most of that power and do enough damage to profile at first base. Chavis has the arm for third base but lacks the horizontal mobility to profile there in a vacuum. Boston has shown a willingness to put up with less lateral range on their infield, but a left side of the infield which features Chavis and Xander Bogaerts together is probably too heavy-footed for comfort, even with proactive defensive positioning. Chavis projects to first base and has dealt with an oblique injury this spring.

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