2020 Top 100 Prospects Chat

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, everyone.

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Today is prospect week’s halfway point, which means the 100 is out. You know where to find it. Let’s get right to your questions…

12:02
Jeff: I love Brujan too, amazing plate discipline plus athleticism combo. Is Perdomo with the D’Backs a potential giant version? Maybe not as twitchy but similarly crazy easily

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Perhaps. Perdomo’s swing really started to have juice in the fall, more from the left side than right. He also has a better shot to stay at SS, in my opinion.

12:04
Adam: Is there anything that Wander Franco needs to improve upon?

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think I’d say he *needs* to improve, but as I wrote in the piece, he’s a lower launch guy. But are you really gonna tweak the swing?

12:05
Akalhar : The Rangers list (aside from Solak) seems odd. Yerry and Hernandez are interesting prospects, but what warrants putting them in over Taveras or Palumbo?

12:08
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah it surprised me, too. I like that system, they have a lot of 45/45+ types. Palumbo has 50 stuff but he’s had injury issues, control is just okay. He’s a 45 for me. Leody I can’t justify sticking on anymore, unless you think he’s bored in the minors and will suddenly be good once he’s in the bigs.

12:08
Dave: I accept that Gavin Lux is good. But is Gavin Lux so good that LA’s refusal to trade him should have been the impediment to two years of Lindor?

12:09
Eric A Longenhagen: I guess you need to ask yourself if you’d rather six years of a 70 or two of an 80

12:11
Bring Back Jeff, Kiley, Mookie: This is the highest ranking i’ve seen on Casas. Why do you think youre higher on him than other outlets?

12:12
Eric A Longenhagen: I can’t speak for other outlets. He was toward the back of the the list when I started shuttling it around baseball for feedback and I was consistently told he was too low, that he belonged with the tier of corner guys he ended up in. Also, remember you can make arguments to list guys within the same FV tier lots of ways, and I’m sure once you accept that then questions like this become easy to answer on your own.

12:13
BK: Any Blue Jay prospects beyond the top 4 considered for the top 100? 45+ types who you debated a 50 on?

12:13
Eric A Longenhagen: I considered Alejandro Kirk as one of many bat-first catchers on the fringe.

12:14
Eric Too: Eric, Thanks for doing this!  Just curious how close Noelvi Marte was to making the cut and also whether you think Rober Puason is a good shot to make next year’s list.  Thanks for all of the great work!

12:15
Eric A Longenhagen: I did some background to make sure I wasn’t totally missing anything but he was cut from the mix pretty quickly. You have him in the right group, though. He, Puason, Erick Pena, etc. Those types are good bets to rise in the next calendar year.

12:15
seth r: If Hunter Greene is back throwing 95-98 in spring training, do you see him jumping back up in to the 55-60FV tier?

12:15
Eric A Longenhagen: Gotta see a good breaking ball

12:15
Marc: You seem to be a lot higher on the Yankees farm on than a lot of other sites, as most of the ones I’ve seen only include Deivi and Jasson. What do you see about Alcantara, Duran, and Vargas that other sites don’t?

12:16
Eric A Longenhagen: Again, can’t speak for other sites. I think if you read the write ups, it’s obvious what I like. Alcantara is a big, athletic freak. Duran is a (poor defensive) middle infielder with plus power. Vargas is a really athletic, switch-hitting shortstop with feel for the barrel and some pop for his age. That’s all very exciting to me

12:17
David: Quick Question on Justin Dunn and Justus Sheffield: Are both 45+ now? On Dunn, what caused his drop? His second run through AA was an improvement across the board, even if a small one.

12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: Dunn’s velo was below average last year and I got tired of riding the Sheff roller coaster

12:18
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Why does Shane Baz likely end up in relief?

12:19
Eric A Longenhagen: The org seems motivated to move him there. He has 40 control, I get it.

12:19
Este: How close was Yusniel Diaz to making this list? What kept him off?

12:19
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a 45 on the Orioles list (which is published and on the site), so he was a half grade away

12:20
Eric A Longenhagen: I just don’t think there’s enough power for a hundred-worthy corner OF

12:20
Ajay: How certain are you that Jo Adell has a better career than Clint Frazier?

12:22
Eric A Longenhagen: I think you’re ignoring the role Frazier’s/NYY’s circumstances have blocked him, but I see what you’re saying. I still have a 50 on Frazier, though sounds like he needs a change of scenery. Adell’s whiffs and the regularity with which he mis-hits balls does bother some people, there is some risk there. I adjusted his bust% above the baseline in the outcomes graph.

12:22
LAA: Really surprised to see Adell’s arm at 40. Does he move to LF when Marsh is called up?

12:23
Eric A Longenhagen: I watched him all AFL and it’s a 40, folks.

12:23
Eric A Longenhagen: And yes, I have him projected in left field from the jump.

12:23
Anonymous: Have you noticed that top Catcher prospects have tended to crap out in recent years, or is that mostly anecdotal?

12:24
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s true. Go look at this century’s track record of catcher draft picks. The last ten years maybe two high school catchers have panned out at all, depending on how you feel about Hedges.

12:24
Dan: Excellent list, thanks. As Indians fan, pleasantly surprised about the Karinchak catapult to 50 FV. Can you give a quick H2H comp to Clase, who I believed to have even better stuff (and command?). Thank you

12:25
Eric A Longenhagen: Clase’s stuff looks better to my eye but Karinchak’s style of stuff, that heater with vertical movement, plays better than Clase’s 100mph cutter.

12:25
HK: Did Kiley make his night escape from FanGraphs with his high speed scouting camera or did you lawfully confiscate it?

12:25
Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s sending it back to David

12:26
Jake: How close (or not) were Aaron Bracho and Bo Naylor?

12:27
Eric A Longenhagen: Bracho was not close. Like the bat, but he has no position and the cement on the body is dry. Naylor was on the big early list and an early cut, but he’ll be on the picks to click tomorrow along with all the other catchers I like.

12:27
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Who wrote the shot at Blake Snell in the Xavier Edwards blurb?

12:27
Eric A Longenhagen: Me

12:27
Bollywood Bulk Bogan: Shane McClanahan needs to improve at  __________?

12:28
Eric A Longenhagen: He was in the reliever group toward the back but I just liked all the other guys better either because I thought they had a shot to prove me wrong and end up starting or because they’re ready right now.

12:28
PM: Who were the players with the biggest discrepancy in rank between you and Kiley? And did you adjust the list to match your views more after he left?

12:29
Eric A Longenhagen: I considered moving maybe 6 guys on teams lists around but decided not to.

12:29
Jabroni: No Brady Singer in the top 120?

12:29
Eric A Longenhagen: command is great, stuff is just okay

12:29
cash: No Clarke Schmidt?

12:29
Eric A Longenhagen: he was the last cut

12:29
Jim Leyland Palmer: With the LAA list one of the few yet to come out, it was surprising to see Brandon Marsh so high. Can you elaborate a bit on your view of him going into 2020?

12:30
Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t looked at the article but I assume all the words, the scouting reports and explanations in there, right?

12:30
Eric A Longenhagen: Swing looked different in the fall, i think there’s more game power now

12:31
Eric A Longenhagen: and he was a 50 on my list last year so this wasn’t a leap

12:31
James: What are the “nutty right tail outcomes” for Tahnaj Thomas? Are there SP outcomes or mostly high leverage RP?

12:32
Eric A Longenhagen: Do the deGrom maze in reverse. At some point it looks like this, right? Just a really athletic, well-built guy with a really live arm. Tahnaj has thrown like 100 innings in his whole life and he’s bumping 100 and starting to throw strikes.

12:32
Jeff: What’s Brice Turang do that Aramis Ademan can’t?!?! Hear my outrage!

12:33
Eric A Longenhagen: Ademan’s exit velo data was disqualifying and he looks heavy in camp at the complex right now

12:33
Matt: Is today Fangraphs’ biggest day of the year in terms of traffic?

12:33
Eric A Longenhagen: oh hell yes

12:33
Eric A Longenhagen: this and trade deadline day

12:34
Jeff: I think they’re both beasts but what separates a Matt Manning from Logan Gilbert?

12:34
Eric A Longenhagen: two ticks of velo

12:34
HK: Franco is a 8 contact 6 power bat while Lux is a 7/7 with MLB experience, and has better pitch selection according to THE BOARD.
Are difference in age and defense enough to make a full grade difference between these two? Or is Wander’s bat really that better than Lux’s?

12:35
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, Lux might be a LF because of his yips and Wander Franco might be the messiah

12:35
Mitchy TwoBags: How close is Bryan Mata to top 100? What about Noah Song with a waiver?

12:36
Mickey: I’ve been impressed how you have added EV data to your hitter analysis. I’m curious though how much weight are you giving to Spin Rate data? I’ll give the example of MacKenzie Gore.

In Gore’s case if I looked for guys within 100 RPM in each direction of his FB and Breaker combo. A sampling is Shoemaker, Margevicius, Plesac, Lopez, Bailey. It is hard to find elite success in that range. Am I too cynical to write off a high ceiling on his spin rate alone?

12:36
Eric A Longenhagen: yeah if people wanna see spin rates and exit velos for everyone, they’re here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-prospect-list/scout…

12:38
Eric A Longenhagen: Gore is spin-efficient, the curveball has good movement and hitters struggle with it. It set off an alarm when we first learned what the spin rate was like two years ago, but those concerns were allayed pretty quickly.

12:39
Soto Popinski: I saw some hinting at problems with Pirates dev. of hitting prospects. Any specifics as to what stifled Hayes/Cruz? Something to do with approach or expectations of ABs?

12:40
Eric A Longenhagen: raw power > game power for several years. Look at Hayes’ avg exit velo and look at his power production. The guy hits the ball rally hard but doesn’t slug, same with Swaggerty.

12:40
TP: How did Kiley’s departure impact the development of the list and the final product?

12:41
Eric A Longenhagen: I wrote everything and am exhausted

12:41
Dave: Will Fangraphs be hiring another prospect writer to help you out with Kiley departing?  Cause you guys have written so much, it would seem you’ll need the help going forward if you’re to maintain this amount of detail

12:42
Eric A Longenhagen: Great question. Many people have reached out and asked something similar. It doesn’t make sense to pause what I’m doing to hire someone and try to get them up to speed with the infrastructure while lists and draft stuff is in full swing. We’ll discuss the possibility of a second person or narrowing my scope sometime during the summer.

12:43
Ryan E: Any info on Nats international prospects Andry Lara? Extremely young still but just curious, haven’t heard a ton of information yet.

12:43
Chris: Odds Julio Rodriguez is number 1 next year?

12:43
Eric A Longenhagen: probably very low. he’s a corner guy

12:43
Bob the Builder: Who is your favorite prospect from the bottom half of the list?

12:44
Eric A Longenhagen: Heriberto

12:44
Charlie Aguilar: If Luzardo ends up in the bullpen because of injury risk is that considered a bust on your analysis chart?

12:45
Eric A Longenhagen: no that’d be in the 40 or 50 columns depending on how good a reliever

12:46
hp: Hi Eric — thanks as always for your thorough, insightful work. I’m wondering if you’d be willing to elaborate a little on Taylor Trammell. he seemingly had the shortest blurb in the entire list, but I’m curious for more given his precipitous drop from a top 15 prospect to where he is now on the list

12:48
Eric A Longenhagen: We overestimated the power output based on what he did at that futures game, which clearly was using balls (for BP too) that were, uh, lively. Like Leody was hitting absolute tanks that day and he just doesn’t have that kind of juice in real life. Same for TT. We also thought, at the time he was ranked really high, he could be a CF. No longer. Still like him, though.

12:48
Jose: Isn’t Josh Lowe too high on the list? You mean he showed potential in his hit tools?

12:49
Eric A Longenhagen: If you’re quite risk-averse then yes, he’s too high. But he’s had big physical tools since HS, he had a huge year at DOuble-A as a 21-year-old, there are clear underlying batted ball components that are different now, he looked god to be in the Fall League… i thought he was an easy guy to put on here

12:49
DJ Tanner: Is James Karinchak the highest FV RP you’ve put where he’s never been a starter and always been just a RP? Dismissing all those guys who hoped to start then fell to the bullpen of course.

12:49
Eric A Longenhagen: One other guy: Zack Burdi

12:50
Eric A Longenhagen: Burdi was 99-102 with a plus slider and changeup at the time. He’s not been healthy.

12:50
Mike: You say it took “convincing from industry folks” to put Luis Robert as high as #7. Is it that consensus that’s caused you to bump him up from a 55 at midseason to a 60 now? And is the difference because your sources like his hit tool more, or because they’re just less concerned about it?

12:51
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes to the first question. The Starling Marte comp made it easier to 60 him since Marte is a 6 with virtually the same profile

12:51
Matt Klentak: If you had to guess right now which position does Oneil Cruz play the most innings at in his career ?

12:52
Eric A Longenhagen: RF

12:53
Reid: Thanks for all your hard work Eric – the prospect coverage here is consistently outstanding. Is there a guy or two who you’ve personally been extra-excited to see play over the last few months? Someone who is “fun” to scout? I feel like Oneil Cruz and Daulton Varsho would fall into that bucket for me.

12:53
Eric A Longenhagen: I can’t wait to see Austin Martin this weekend

12:53
Andrew: Great list! How do you gauge the percentages of possible outcomes for each player? Is it just a variation of a certain tool? For example for Marsh that tool would be his power, how much power he gets out of his swing determines his FV and you gauged the probability of that?

12:53
Eric A Longenhagen: it’s totally inexact and more meant to show you the shape of potential outcomes rather than be scientific.

12:53
Jordan Miller: Who’s the biggest riser you feel within the top 100 in regards to next year?

12:54
Eric A Longenhagen: the Picks to Click piece runs tomorrow.

12:54
Just a Guy: McKay 100% done as a hitter ?

12:54
Eric A Longenhagen: he probably pinch hits here and there

12:54
Mucho: Ok to ask a draft question? It looks like Nick Gonzales got dinged pretty badly on run, throw, field in the recent update. Is a second baseman with one plus tool really a top-5 draft prospect? It feels like he’s creeping dangerously close to Jemile Weeks territory…

12:54
Eric A Longenhagen: Keston Hiura, anyone?

12:55
Guest: Did the Emmanul Clase for Kluber trade impact how you view FV for potential high end relievers at all?

12:56
Eric A Longenhagen: Great question. Yes. That deal and a bunch of Tampa’s deals, as well as the way pitcher usage is changing is what brought about that chhange.

12:56
The Darkness: How does Jordan Walker compare to Kris Bryant coming out of high school?

12:57
Eric A Longenhagen: Hoo damn. I never saw Bryant in HS but I get where you’re heading and I agree, the frame, defensive fit, the power projection. Guys like Bohm, Bryant, Nolan Jones, they have Walker’s frame as high schoolers.

12:58
Brent: Brandon Marsh made a huge jump.

12:58
Eric A Longenhagen: Go to The Board and click his FV grade. You can see his historical FV grades. Not a big jump, he’s been in the 50/55 area the whole time.

12:58
CJ: Why isnt Bobby Dalbec in the top 100?

1:00
Eric A Longenhagen: K’s, there’s very little precedent for a hitter striking out as much as he did in college, as much as he has in pro ball, succeeding in such a way that he belongs on here. I will say, though, that I think two of my FO contacts thought he belonged.

1:00
Mike: Without throwing a pitch, Michael Kopech actually moved up from #29 and 55 FV on last year’s list to #19 and 60 FV. Has something about his recovery addressed some of your concerns? Kind of surprising given that you literally copied and pasted his write-up from last year.

1:01
Eric A Longenhagen: The stuff was back when he threw in the fall so scary is it/isn’t it back after surgery question was answered

1:01
Met tucker is a snake: How much of a difference is there between Rutschman and Bart?

1:01
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s not huge but I’ll definitely take the switch hitter

1:02
Dave: Who would you say is this year’s Brujan – a guy you love more than the industry?

1:02
Eric A Longenhagen: I guess Cruz

1:02
Jonny: Is someone like Francisco Alvarez someone to keep a close eye on for next year’s list?  Too “new” to be in the top 100 or are you just not seeing enough potential?

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: he’s on the Picks to Click, think he’s on next year and I may be a year late

1:03
kcbg: Hi Eric!  As a long-suffering Mariners fan, this list and write-up gives me hope!  Are the M’s prospects thriving despite the poor player development or have there been development improvements under Dipoto?

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: dev has gotten better, especially on the pitching side

1:03
Mister Baseball Man: Mize’s splitter is seen as his best pitch by most. What made throw the double plus on the cutter rather than the split?

1:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Splitter usage waned after he returned from injury and the TM data suggests he may have been tinkering with new grips because the spin rate was more variable. I wonder if they think the split contributed to him getting hurt? That’s total speculation, all I have is the TM data to base that on.

1:05
Cole: Very surprised to not see Clark Schmidt, do you not see him as a starter?

1:06
Eric A Longenhagen: Dude in his mid-20s with an injury history and a longer, hooking arm action. I 45’d him. He’s not far from the list.

1:06
Guest: Julio Rodriguez is definitley the winner of the 2019 picks to click, right?

1:06
Eric A Longenhagen: we did really well, i think

1:07
Chris: What is keeping Bubic just outside the top 100? As dominant as anyone last year

1:08
Eric A Longenhagen: heater averaged 90mph, he was a big conference college arm torching A-ball

1:08
Dave: Whats the word count on the top 100+ this year?

1:08
Eric A Longenhagen: no idea, let’s see…

1:09
Eric A Longenhagen: 32145

1:10
Slurms McKenzie: Did the Braves hinder Kyle Wright’s development path by rushing him to the bigs?

1:10
Eric A Longenhagen: No, I think I was too heavy on him out of the gate because I didn’t yet fully grasp how/why fastballs work

1:10
Slothrop: Hey Eric, does being sad ever get in the way of your work? How do you cope

1:11
Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, sometimes, same as everyone else. Writing is hard, it’s hard to turn on the faucet whenever you want, especially when you’re bummed or pissed about something.

1:12
Nathan: What are expecting out of a guy like victor victor mesa?

1:12
Eric A Longenhagen: he’s barely a prospect for me based on the AFL look

1:12
Zach: How has Varsho looked defensively when not playing catcher?

1:13
Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t seen him in LF/CF but I spoke with someone this week who has and said it’s good. There’s been some 2B speculation, too.

1:13
Jason: How close was George Kirby to making the list this year?

1:13
Eric A Longenhagen: Very, he was in the last dozen cuts or so

1:13
Jackie Robinson Cano: on the back half of the list, you seem to favor high ceiling, high risk younger prospects, as opposed to ones closer to the big leagues. any reason why?

1:15
Eric A Longenhagen: The types of guys who’d grab hold of a job and be a lower-variance 50 sort end up getting shuttled around like Corey Dickerson now. Plus I think the potential of having homegrown, elite talent or talent perceived as elite is really valuable, and Craig’s research supports that.

1:15
Kai: Would you say Royce Lewis is a ‘high variance’ guy?

1:15
Eric A Longenhagen: yes

1:15
Tim: I’ve never heard of Tahnaj Thomas before. Is the industry as high on him as you are? What’s his ceiling?

1:17
Eric A Longenhagen: I stuck him back to back with Greene on purpose and there weren’t any arguments aside from “it’s early”

1:17
Lance: I see you made a note on Patino possibly ending up in the pen. What would you say the percent chance of that is?

1:17
Eric A Longenhagen: Just initially in the bigs, I think he’s too athletic and will throw too many strikes to stay there forever.

1:18
Matt Klentak: The Franco “estimated probable FV chart is wild” Have you ever seen another one with 70+ above 50% & bust lower than 10%?

1:18
Eric A Longenhagen: I barely adjusted it away from the baseline. The industry is pretty good at picking the top couple guys.

1:18
Sophie C. Hawkins: Will Francisco Alvarez be top 100 soon if he moves to full season ball and puts up similar numbers to last year?

1:18
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, in the end I considered him and Ivan Herrera to be very similar but Herrera is a few levels ahead.

1:19
Matt: This is the highest I’ve seen Yerry Rodriguez by far. What do you see his upside as, and how much concern is there with the elbow?

1:20
Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely some concern but, again, it’s in the report. Up to 98 with plus command, comes in at a tough angle, plus changeup, curveball has plus spin but doesn’t look plus to the eye right now. He’s 22, if this guy is draft eligible last year, where do you think he goes?

1:20
Frank: How close was Luis Matos? I know he’s a 45+

1:21
Eric A Longenhagen: the list is made entirely of 50s

1:21
Jabroni: Who has the highest/lowest exit velos on the list?

1:23
Steven: For fantasy prospect purposes, which prospects are must have guys from this past summer’s drafts?

1:23
Eric A Longenhagen: Friday is Fantasy Friday and we’ll have Dynasty, FYPD and redraft rankings for you and they’ll all be viewable and sortable in one place on The Board. All hail The Board.

1:24
D: Why do we never hear about the glowing leadership and clubhouse charm of latino players?

1:29
Eric A Longenhagen: There’s a barrier between them and the English-speaking writers you listen to. It’s hard to consider someone who you can’t understand as charismatic or inspirational. Plus a lot of Latino players, especially Venezuelans and Cubans, are dealing with stuff at home or went through a lot to be here and it colors their personality in ways that ignorant people aren’t willing to consider. I don’t think my coverage at FG falls victim to the “grit” and “hustle” b.s.

1:29
Adam: Is the Untitled McDongenhagen Project ever coming back, even if with a new name?

1:30
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m considering sitting and speaking into a mic and recording that to release as a pod when I have something interesting to say.

1:30
Eric A Longenhagen:

Would you be into a prospect pod that is mostly just Eric talking?

Yes (91.1% | 113 votes)
 
No (8.8% | 11 votes)
 

Total Votes: 124
1:31
Eric A Longenhagen: brb chat, i need coffee

1:31
Eric A Longenhagen: ah dammit I realized I’m out of half and half as I typed that

1:32
Eric A Longenhagen: ok, onward…

1:33
Adam: There was an 80 grade somewhere on the list for most tools, and (I think) at least a 65 for every single one except command. Why do you never grade command higher than a 60? Given that the scale is based on standard deviations from the mean rather than objective measurements, the best command in the game is by definition an 80, so why do we never see anything close to that, even among the very best prospects?

1:33
Eric A Longenhagen: I agree we need to use more of the scale for command. McKay is a 70

1:33
Guest: are the fielding and arm ratings relative to MLB average or to the position average? For example, would a 35 be a 35 at shortstop, left field, and first base? Or does it depend on position?

1:33
Eric A Longenhagen: MLB average.

1:33
Steven: I know this is about prospects but i would love to see a list of the best coaches in the game (who doesn’t love a good list).  Like who is the best infield coach, outfield coach, baserunning coach, catcher coach, etc.

1:34
Eric A Longenhagen: That’s tough. Sounds like an Eno article but whenyou write about dev, dev folks are your sources, and once you start ranking your sources….

1:34
Eric A Longenhagen: That’s Metsy

1:34
PD: What sort of scenario plays out where Wander falls in that 5% bust category?

1:35
Eric A Longenhagen: He gets hit by a meteorite a because he doesn’t have a bat handy to whack it away

1:35
Sterling: Why is Graterol so low?

1:36
Eric A Longenhagen: Relief for me, plus the medical

1:36
Just curious : Royce was great in the AFL, but who would say is his most likely and slightly optimisstic comparison?

1:36
Eric A Longenhagen: yes but i feel good about my reasoning

1:36
Maximum Acostage: Why has FG consistently been lower on Huff than most other outlets? Was any thought given to Apostel or Jung being on the list?

1:37
Eric A Longenhagen: Sherten was one of the last cuts. I’ve been scouting Huffy since he was at Arcadia and he does have monster raw, but I think he’s a 1B and then the K’s become an issue

1:37
Eric A Longenhagen: Jung still has his pre-draft grade for me. Inside out swing, not sure you can hit for the kind of power you need to in order to clear the 3B bar right now without getting him to pull the ball more

1:38
Jeter: Why is Sixto so low?

1:38
Eric A Longenhagen: heater doesn’t play like it’s velo suggests, body/injury concerns

1:38
Hobbs: Why do people always ask about guys who are already written up on team list that have been posted for a month?

1:39
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m starting to think I suck at marketing myself, though to be fair I did vomit in my mouth as I typed “marketing myself”

1:39
Ben: the ways with a couple very intersting low level hitters in Groshans and Martinez. Were the injuries to Groshans what has kept him from being a tier higher?

1:40
Eric A Longenhagen: He was in consideration for the 55s back when he was healthy, yeah

1:40
Oil of Zolay: Your rankings suggest you aren’t too high on Brailyn Marquez.  Do you see any realistic chance he still can develop into a high impact starter (i.e. a good #3 or better)?

1:41
Eric A Longenhagen: The fact that he’s on the list at all kind of refutes the notion I’m not high on him. I think it’s realistic he becomes what you describe, just not likely.

1:41
Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s really important and useful to look at current big leaguers and work backwards, and there just aren’t many big league starters who are built like Marquez at this age, or who have his strike-throwing issues.

1:42
Jason: Are there any 50s who didn’t make the top 120, or is everybody else 45 and below?

1:42
Eric A Longenhagen: The latter

1:42
Eric A Longenhagen: We hard rank all the 50s here

1:42
Ken Giles Right Hook: Does Espino need more refinement on his secondaries to make the top 100?

1:43
Eric A Longenhagen: I think both his breaking balls are quite good, just wanna see the stuff hold up over a larger workload. He’s a big strong kid, no room on the frame, he’s Brady Quinn beefy and I’m not sure if that’s good or not.

1:43
dorktown: Have you heard anything on Bayron Lora that makes you think he could have a significant ceiling?

1:44
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, saw him in the fall. Huge kid with huge power.

1:44
Jeff: Thanks for your work and taking the time to chat. Could you offer a quick take on Jonathan India? How concerned should the Reds be that he was showing such little power last year?

1:44
Eric A Longenhagen: In my opinion, his junior year at Florida really looks like the outlier when you take a step back and look at the whole body of work.

1:44
SuspendedTommy: You guys are rhe highest outlet on Campusano? Im assuning you dont have many doubts that he can stay behind the dish?

1:46
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m encouraged by what he did to remake his body while he was in high school (it’s a sign the dude is willing to work) and he’s much better at receiving now than he was in the AZL right after the draft. Plus, in two years it might not matter if he can frame or not, so that was considered, as well.

1:46
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, noted on the podcast thing.

1:46
COMISH4LIF: Is there a schedule to complete and release the remaining team top prospect lists? Will they be ready by Opening Day?

1:48
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m just gonna grind them out one after the other. I’ll say that the Tampa-area cluster of teams is next (Yankees, Phillies, Pirates, Jays, Rays) and then the Northwest Valley (TEX, KC, SEA, SD) but the timeline is impacted by Kiley’s departure.

1:48
Eric A Longenhagen: (shakes fist at Mickey Mouse)

1:48
Guest: Do players being blocked at mlb level factor into your ETA?

1:49
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, when I recognize the blockage. Mostly ETAs are driven by 40man timelines.

1:49
Big Joe Mufferaw: We see on the list that the yankees have HIGH end talent in the low minors, do they also have a lot of depth in those levels?

1:49
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, one of the best international programs there is.

1:49
Ben: in recent years have pitchers, been downgraded on lists recently because of variance and injury potential? Not just your list, i mean more in general.

1:50
Eric A Longenhagen: I think that’s part of it and I also think the heavy use of option years, the way bullpens are being managed, what that does to starters’ inning totals and other factors have pushed pitching more toward the middle, if that makes sense

1:51
Big Joe Mufferaw: What differentiates Wander to Jurickson Profar as prospects? Both similar tools, production vs older comp, position and size.

1:51
Eric A Longenhagen: Their tools are *not* similar. Pro was polish over tools.

1:51
Cody: I know he isn’t a 2020 top 100 due to expiring eligibility, but he was the number 7 top 100 prospect in 2019.. how much has Nick Senzel’s stock fallen since that 2019 top 10 ranking and where would he rank in this year’s top 100 if he still maintained prospect status?

1:52
Eric A Longenhagen: Not much, I’d be trying like mad to buy low on him considering how hellbent the Reds seem to be on competing. Tough to deal with a position change while you’re also seeing MLB pitching for the first time.

1:53
Civale: Awesome list, thanks.  Did Civale get any consideration toward the end of the list?

1:53
Eric A Longenhagen: He graduated in September

1:53
Eric A Longenhagen:

CLE RHP Aaron Civale (newly 40+ FV) graduated last night. TEX LHP Kolby Allard (40+ FV) will graduate with 0.1 more IP.

Update Farm Rankings: fangraphs.com/prospects/the-…

19 Sep 2019
1:54
Eric A Longenhagen: BTW, this is a great chance while I have about 700 of you here to remind you that you wanna @fg_prospects on twitter for all kinds of stuff

1:54
Ryan: How about three 2019 MLB picks who are not in Top 100 right now but have been chance to land there next year?

1:55
Eric A Longenhagen: Bishdaddy, Zack Thompson, George Kirby

1:55
Nils: From last year’s Picks to Click, what happened with Jeisson Rosario?  Is he even a 40FV guy now?

1:57
Eric A Longenhagen: Someone showed me video of him hitting in the DR last weekend and that dude is has gotten very strong. I’m still on him, probably in the 40+ tier.

1:57
Eric A Longenhagen: We’re approaching the two hour mark so this is officially last call

1:59
Matt Festa at a bus stop: Are you convinced Julio Rodriguez is actually slow?  I understand he’s probably not a CF, but I’ve seen him go home to 3rd on triples and I think it is harsh to say he’s a 40.  It seems at worst average speed.

1:59
Eric A Longenhagen: the stopwatch doesn’t lie

1:59
Matt Festa at a bus stop: What’s your view on Brandon Williamson?  Is he a potential pick to click for 2021?

1:59
Eric A Longenhagen: I love him. want to see him hold his stuff deeper into starts, though.

1:59
lil jimmy: Nick Griffin moved way up. How come?

2:00
Eric A Longenhagen: I get the control is scary but I’m all in on the frame and braking ball

2:00
PM: Do you think you have any weaknesses in terms of a player type you tend to be wrong on

2:01
Eric A Longenhagen: The Picks to Click article is perhaps the best place to evaluate that kind of thing since it’s a lot of gut feel and preference, almost an exercise entirely in bias. I’d say we overcorrected on hit-first infielders for a while. Jose Devers types.

2:01
Mike: Was a little surprised to see Andres Gimenez’s % chance of being a bust around 50%. I would have thought that a plus defender at short and a plus (and maybe plus plus) runner would’ve given him a higher floor. What do you think?

2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: That’s the empirical baseline for a hitter in that FV tier, I didn’t touch his graph. Maybe I should have now that you mention it, he’s a lower variance guy for me

2:02
Alan: I was surprised not to see Knizner named. Is he no longer a prospect, or just didn’t make the cut?

2:02
Matt Festa at a bus stop: How far away from top 100 is a player like Cal Raleigh.  I take it you must not be sold on defense or bat?

2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: another pick to click catcher

2:02
Frank: How close was Kody Hoese?

2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not on him

2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: to be fair, he was hurt when I saw him in AZ

2:03
Just curious : One must obey The Board God!

2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: The Board must flow

2:03
Reid: One quick thing – Isaac Paredes is listed as having 55 pitch selection and 70 bat control with a 60 hit tool, but Wander has 60 pitch selection and 70 bat control with an 80 future hit tool. Are the bat control/pitch selection grades present grades?

2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: good question. power on contact matters, too. Grading the hit tool is complex because so many other components impact it. it’s why i’ve taken a reductionist approach with the bat control and pitch selection grades. There’s a huge chunk of a chapter about it in the book

2:05
Ollie: How much harder has your life been now that Kiley has left? I can’t imagine doing all this work on your own. You’re doing amazing work.

2:06
Eric A Longenhagen: Kiley and I would have spent something like 18 hours on the phone together this week, so I miss that.

2:06
Maximum Acostage: How did Ronny Henriquez compare to Yerry Rodriguez in your evaluations?

2:08
Eric A Longenhagen: He was in the mix, too. Has more raw velo but it wasn’t playing as well as Yerry’s heater.

2:08
Nico: Looking at the breakdowns of the hit tools on THE BOARD it seems bat control is more important than pitch selection. Is this so?

2:09
Eric A Longenhagen: an interesting observation. I don’t know yet. my attempt to grade those pieces is still new and like anything else i do here, will be subject to reevaluation.

2:09
Brad: Who are the prospect writers involved for friday

2:09
Eric A Longenhagen: Paul and Shelly

2:09
SalisburySteak: I’m a bit surprised you have Bubic on the list but not Kowar. What gives? Are you skeptical that Kowar ever develops a breaker?

2:10
Eric A Longenhagen: correct on Kowar’s breaker, and while he throws hard it’s a sinker that I think will miss fewer bats than the raw velo suggests

2:10
Big Fan: What goes into tweaking one’s fastball the way Kyle Wright needs to?

2:13
Eric A Longenhagen: it can be a few different things, based on what I know. You can alter hand position. So, if you watch Josh Hader and bunch of Houston arms you can see their wrist cocked more north/south than their arm slot. That creates mroe backspin. Stride direction is another one. Guys whose landing leg swings way out past the direct line to the plate often have spinal tilt that creates a more vertical slot. Chris Devenski, Ubaldo Jimenez, Mike Wacha are coming to mind.

2:13
Eric A Longenhagen: But making these changes comes with risk of screwing a guy up, too

2:15
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, i’ve gotta run. Thanks to the many hundreds of you who chatted today. Please peruse all the prospect content via the prospect home page, which you can access via the dashboard at the top of the site. Also please consider pre-ordering my book, Future Value, here:

2:15
Eric A Longenhagen: Peace

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Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

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Merl
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Merl

A Longenhagen prospect podcast would be an immediate hit. @FanGraphs get on this.