2025 Trade Value: Introduction and Honorable Mentions
“Who you got?” It seems like such a simple question. If you’ve ever swapped baseball cards during recess or tried to pick somewhere to eat on a Friday night, you’ve asked yourself this. The choice between two options seems easy. But then you add a third option, and a fourth, and a 139th, and suddenly you’re obsessing over whether you’d prefer your third-favorite Thai restaurant to your fourth-favorite Italian place. Or perhaps, if you’ve used our new crowdsourced trade value tool, you’re deciding between CJ Abrams and Andrew Abbott. Making decisions is hard!
Welcome to the 2025 edition of our annual Trade Value series. Starting today and continuing all week, we’re releasing our list of the 50 most valuable players in baseball, taking player performance, age, and contract into account. Dave Cameron, Kiley McDaniel, Craig Edwards, and Kevin Goldstein have all headlined this column before; this is my fourth year doing it on my own.
Of course, “on my own” is a bit of a misnomer. The process of building this list starts with me gathering every possible input I can find: age, contract status, measures of current production, estimates of future production, Statcast data, pitch-level modeling, scouting reports – if it can be written down, I try to consider it in my first pass. I use all of those inputs to come up with an initial quantitative ranking, then hone that ranking by diving deeper into individual player comparisons. After I have things in good order, I consult with the FanGraphs staff to refine my thinking further. (Special thanks are due to Dan Szymborski for his ZiPS assistance, Eric Longenhagen for being a frequent sounding board as I iterated on the list, Meg Rowley for her help shepherding it through to publication, and Sean Dolinar for his technical assistance.) Next, I reach out to sources on the team side. Here I try to gather perspectives on player value from organizations that have different methodological leanings, different budgets and goals, and that are in different places in the competitive cycle.
Make no mistake, though: Despite all the help that this gracious group of people was kind enough to offer me, these rankings are my own. This list is my subjective ranking of the 50 players in baseball who I think would fetch the most if their team traded them. It’s not a consensus list of which players are valued most by the industry, though there is of course considerable overlap with that criteria. There are players on the list who I’m higher on than consensus and vice versa; I’ll call out the largest disagreements in the individual write-ups. If I rank a player higher than consensus, it certainly doesn’t mean that consensus is wrong, though obviously I think it is.
I’m ranking these players by trying to answer the following question: Taking everything about a player into account, which players would garner the highest trade value, from any team, if every team viewed players the same way I do? That’s not the average value that each team would assign based on their own competitive window and financial limitations. In real world trades, there’s a highest bidder, a team most motivated to acquire a player’s services, and that’s the value I care about when it comes to this list. To give you an example from today’s honorable mentions, there are a lot of teams that couldn’t trade for Bryce Harper regardless of the acquisition cost; they simply wouldn’t have the budget to build a team around him. That doesn’t matter, though, because it only takes a handful of teams to make a market. If 24 teams cry poor while the five biggest markets in the game engage in a bidding war for a player, then what those 24 teams thought didn’t affect the outcome.
I think this is an important distinction. You can imagine looking at this list from the perspective of a small-market team, or a rebuilding team, or a team with an All-Star already entrenched at a given position, and scratching your head at the order. The Royals wouldn’t trade for Francisco Lindor (spoiler: he’s on the main part of the list). Where would they play him, and how would they make the numbers work? The White Sox wouldn’t trade for Tarik Skubal (more spoilers: he’s on there, too). They’d still be terrible, and he’s leaving after 2026 anyway.
A list of aggregate preferences, averaged across all 30 teams, might look different. But that’s not how trades work in the real world, so it’s not how I’m evaluating players for this series. All I care about is the highest offer a player might fetch, because in the end, that’s what determines their value in trade. As long as there’s no hard salary cap and star players are in short supply, the best players on the market carry a trade premium beyond what you’d expect from a linear accounting of wins and dollars, and I’ve attempted to account for that in my rankings.
Every year, I try to improve my understanding of this specific dynamic. We keep getting evidence that teams will give up “value” in the raw cost per projected win sense to acquire stars, but few trades in recent years have put that to the test with the very top few players in the majors. Until we see a player of Lindor’s caliber (or any of the other names I’ll reveal to you over the next five days) move, I can only speculate about how the market would set their value, but I believe these are good estimates even without certain knowledge.
After organizing players into tiers within the top 50 on a trial basis last year, I’m expanding on that in 2025 by defining those tiers a bit more tightly. Grouping players this way does a better job of explaining my thinking. It also drives home a point that is perpetually difficult to make when creating lists: not every one-spot gap in the rankings means the same thing. The first and last players in a given tier are closer to each other in value than they are to the nearest players in neighboring tiers. The tiers will be demarcated in the table that appears at the end of each article in the series, and I’ll also refer to them as I explain my thinking about the first and last player within each one.
As I mention every year, 50 is just a number; it’s true both of age and the number of players we put on this list. That decision was made a long time ago, and it was a wise one. There has to be some cutoff – there are more than 50 honorable mentions! – and 50 does a good job of getting the best players on the list without leaving too much fluff at the bottom. That said, cutting things off at 50 implies a bright-line distinction between the last guy I ranked and the first guy I left off that doesn’t reflect reality. The players checking in from 38th down to what would be 58th are all quite close in my estimation. You could make an argument for many players who are just off the list replacing the back end of it, and believe me, plenty of the people I talked to did just that.
For the players below who appeared on last year’s list, you’ll see their 2024 ranking in parentheses after their name. I’ve also included a section of players who made the list last year but fell off and aren’t honorable mentions this year. This Friday at 10 AM ET, I’ll hold a chat so that I can take your questions on the full list.
That’s a lot of words about the process of making this list, and there will be plenty more in the comments accompanying each ranked player. For now, though, let’s get to the honorable mentions.
Departing the List, Not an Honorable Mention
Luis Robert Jr. (28)
Francisco Alvarez (33)
Jared Jones (45)
Justin Steele (49)
Robert might belong on the very fringes of the honorable mention discussion, but I didn’t seriously consider him for inclusion, so he lands here. He’d just be too maddening to trade for, and picking up his $20 million option for 2026 isn’t an automatic decision, so he might be a rental anyway. Alvarez has plenty of team control left and I still think he’ll end up being a valuable player, but if your team is sending you to Triple-A for a reset, you don’t belong on this list at the moment.
Jones and Steele, on the other hand, are injury cases. Jones missed most of the second half of the season last year, then had Tommy John surgery this May. I love his potential, but I’m worried about the likelihood that he remains both explosive and healthy. Steele had an elbow surgery of his own (a modified UCL revision plus flexor tendon repair) and won’t be back until midway through 2026. Bummer.
Injured Pitchers
Cole Ragans (21)
Grayson Rodriguez (46)
Shane McClanahan (HM)
Spencer Schwellenbach
A quick refresher on how I’m treating injured pitchers these days: I exclude them. No one would trade for a player who is currently on the shelf with a serious injury. The information asymmetry and uncertainty are both just too high. Even if you expect them to return to their prior form, how long will it take for them to ramp back up? This is the kind of trade that would get you vilified if it didn’t work, and the risks are material.
Schwellenbach would absolutely be on the list if it weren’t for the fractured elbow that placed him on the 60-day IL. Maybe it’ll be totally fine. I hope it is. But it’s a rare enough injury that I’d want to see him back and effective before trading for him. The same goes for Ragans, who’s on the 60-day IL himself with a rotator cuff strain. He already has two TJs in his career, so arm troubles are particularly worrisome for him. I hope he’s back at full strength soon, but I wouldn’t trade for him until he is.
Likewise, Rodriguez hasn’t appeared since last July, and recently suffered a setback in his rehab that has his availability this season in doubt. McClanahan hasn’t pitched in the majors since August 2023, but he’s on track to return to action soon. He was a contender for being the best young pitcher in baseball before getting hurt, and I expect him to end up back in that conversation again before too long, although to be fair, he’s now 28.
Stars on Big Deals
Austin Riley (18)
Mookie Betts (20)
Bryce Harper (41)
Freddie Freeman (HM)
Matt Chapman
Max Fried
Matt Olson
Trea Turner (HM)
All of these guys are very good. Other than Turner, all of them are making mid-$20-million salaries, and all are performing at All-Star levels. You know what you’re getting. Any of these players could reasonably be on the top 50 in trade value for your particular team; they’re all obviously great. I had them outside the cutoff but would happily go out of my way to trade for any of them.
A few notes on the three who were on the list in 2024: Riley got hurt last August in the midst of a down season. He hasn’t bounced back to his previous perpetually-five-win form, and I think he’s more nice player than secret superstar now. Betts is a phenomenon, one of my favorite players of his generation, and he’s consistently found ways to adapt and improve even as he ages. I think he’ll probably bounce back from this year’s career-worst showing. But I’m not certain, you know? Harper could easily be in the top 50 still, and he easily could have missed last year; he’s right in that range. Great player, good deal, wouldn’t fault anyone for having him higher, but there are plenty of names and only so many spots.
This also feels like the right place to mention that Juan Soto isn’t on this list, and he isn’t an honorable mention. I’m generally skeptical of “oh, the surplus value!” pearl-clutching, but Soto’s deal is the kind of gargantuan contract that limits your market to a single team, and he’s already on that team. Think of him like a Lamborghini, the kind of luxury good whose value doesn’t really fit into an exercise like this. The point of the Soto deal is that the Mets can sign him to it, not that other teams would be willing to trade a lot to get him.
Catchers, Man
Gabriel Moreno (34)
Sean Murphy (HM)
Dillon Dingler
Iván Herrera
Austin Wells
Catcher performance varies more than any other offensive position. I think it’s probably related to the extreme difficulty of the job, though I can’t prove it. Either way, though, big league catchers have struggled to sustain top-end performance in recent years. Teams have noticed, too; take a look at the extensions and free agent contracts signed by backstops, and you’ll see that the top ones tend to opt for longer years at lower dollar values than you’d expect given their projected performance. Peaks have been short, and framing in particular seems to revert heavily towards average for all but the greatest defensive catchers. As such, I’ve been conservative with my estimation of catcher value, but I think reasonably so.
Moreno would be on the list if he played more, but three years into his major league career, he still hasn’t put together a 400-PA campaign. He’s a great complementary piece, above average in every facet of the game, but without a true carrying tool. Murphy has been high on this list before, but he briefly fell to backup status last year, and his trajectory is thus uncertain at best. I’d love to have him on my team, but probably not as my only option.
Dingler is solid defensively and is showing some sneaky offensive potential this year. Herrera might end up at first base or DH, and is in fact DHing more than he’s catching this year, but there’s some chance he can just hit his way to stardom anyway. Wells, like Dingler, is solid across the board, but similarly doesn’t have an obvious carrying tool. He’s a good example of a guy who I downgraded slightly because of my assumption that defense is mean-reverting.
Defenders with Sketchy Bats
Michael Harris II (12)
Patrick Bailey (26)
Anthony Volpe (38)
Ezequiel Tovar (39)
Brice Turang (HM)
Ah, Michael Harris II, the source of the most disagreement on last year’s list. The doubters have had the upper hand in that debate so far; Harris simply hasn’t been able to make his swing-happy ways work at the plate. He’s fallen below replacement level for the year despite his usual excellent defense thanks to a 51 wRC+. Projection systems still love him, but no one’s swinging a blockbuster deal for a guy with a .237 OBP. Bailey is in a similar boat; he was a four-win player last year and he might not miss that mark by much this year, but he’s slumped offensively to a barely playable level. He’s hitting better than Harris and is also more valuable defensively – he’s the best defensive catcher in the sport – but the offensive results just aren’t good enough to land him on the list.
Volpe has never delivered on the promise he showed as a prospect; he’s a good defender who will probably never be an impact offensive player. The same is true of Tovar, whose offense is undone by his inability to lay off pitches in the dirt. They’re both nice defenders and will be around for quite a while at a reasonable rate, but they’re tracking more like solid regulars than standouts. I like Turang a bit more than those two at the moment. He has more offensive promise and might have the defensive chops for short, though the Brewers seem happy to leave him at second, where he’s Gold Glove caliber.
Controllable Pitching
Tanner Bibee (47)
Sandy Alcantara (HM)
Joe Ryan (HM)
Andrew Abbott
José Soriano
I like all five of these guys as useful, playoff-rotation-worthy options. They’re all around for multiple years at reasonable rates. Every team needs more pitching, and if it’s not of the scale-shattering, elite variety, they’d also love to get that pitching with cost certainty. Concerns about each of these guys notwithstanding, there’d be a robust market for their services if they got traded. We might get to see exactly how robust in the case of both Alcantara and Ryan, who appear to be on the trading block as we approach the deadline. Trades involving top 50 trade value players are rare these days, so the return for these two might be the best we get when it comes to calibrating value this year.
The True Rental
Kyle Tucker (HM)
Tucker isn’t a top 50 trade value, but he’s a top 10 player, and he’ll be a prized free agent this winter unless something unexpected happens on the extension front. He’s a complete offensive player in the prime of his career. The Cubs aren’t trading him, but if they did, playoff teams would be clamoring for his services.
Controllable Role Players
Jarren Duran (HM)
Colt Keith (HM)
Matt McLain (HM)
Isaac Paredes (HM)
Brent Rooker (HM)
Jonathan Aranda
Wilyer Abreu
Addison Barger
Lawrence Butler
Brendan Donovan
Andy Pages
Geraldo Perdomo
Kyle Stowers
Duran, Keith, Rooker, Aranda, Barger, Butler, Donovan, and Stowers all look like good offensive options with indifferent overall defensive value, ranging from average at a corner position down to DH-preferred. Of those, I like the best hitter (Rooker) and the most versatile defender (Donovan) the most, but all of them look like useful starters for championship contenders. You can’t go wrong with any member of this group.
McLain is a trickier situation. He looked like a star when he debuted in 2023, but he missed all of 2024 with injury and the juice just isn’t back on offense yet. There’s high upside here, but plenty of risk too. Paredes is great, perpetually underrated even, but he’s in the ideal spot for his skills, and when the Rays traded him last year, they didn’t get a ton back despite his excellent production. Perdomo has taken a step forward on offense this year, though I still can’t quite wrap my head around his approach; I’m definitely lower on him than the median, but I have to admit that he’s pretty dang good.
Abreu and Pages are a cut above the rest of this group. Both of them would be eminently reasonable options for the tail end of the list. They’re both fine defenders with above-average bats, and both will be around for quite a while. This general skill set – well-rounded without any standout offerings – forms the backbone of playoff contenders across the league.
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz (HM)
I didn’t know where to put Cruz, so I made a category just for him. He’s a singular player anyway, a Pro Bowl tight end playing baseball. He’s huge and long-levered, with the Statcast numbers and strikeout rate to match. This year, he’s gone from indifferent shortstop to excellent center fielder, with his customary average-in-the-strangest-way offensive line. He’s great, he’s fun, he won’t be a free agent until 2029, and I hope he continues to play center field at the spectacular level he’s displayed in recent months.
Exciting, Unproven
Jackson Holliday (37)
Jasson Domínguez
Cam Smith
Any of these three could have made the top 50. Several people I talked to wanted at least one of them on the list, but I’m not sold on any of them right now. I’m particularly confused by Holliday; I thought that he’d hit for power and take walks, hence his ranking last year, but he hasn’t done either yet. If I had to pick one of this trio, I’d take Smith, but all three are great players who will likely hit at the major league level.
Young Guys
Samuel Basallo
Chase Burns
Kristian Campbell
Dylan Crews
Konnor Griffin
Kevin McGonigle
Jesús Made
Andrew Painter
Roki Sasaki
Sebastian Walcott
As is customary, I asked Eric Longenhagen for a list of prospects and young big leaguers who have big upside, or could crack the list next year if they continue at their current pace. With plenty of recent debuts on the list proper, this is a slimmer group than normal, but there’s still plenty of upside here. Not all of these guys are on fire at the moment; Burns hasn’t clicked in the big leagues yet, Campbell (minors) and Crews (IL) have been rough offensively, and Sasaki had a nightmare start to his big league career before getting hurt. The potential, though! If history is any precedent, four or five of these names will be on next year’s top 50, with some of them right up at the top of the list. We’re not sure which of them it will be or they’d already be on there, but we’re high on all of these guys being good in the big leagues, as is the industry.
Just Missed
Steven Kwan (30)
MacKenzie Gore (50)
Jeremy Peña (HM)
Michael Busch
Maikel Garcia
Nick Kurtz
I had each one of these players in the top 50 at one point or another during construction of the list. Gore was the last cut, in fact; I started him in the high 30s and kept moving him lower throughout the process, but I’m not at all confident that he’s a better fit here than he would be in the main section. He’s a top-15 pitcher in baseball over the last year and has spectacular tools and pedigree; you can dream on him being the best pitcher in your playoff rotation. In the end, the scant years of control and the fact that pitchers sometimes get hurt pushed him just off the list, but it was a tough decision, and I’m not at all sure it was the right one.
Likewise, I had Kwan and Peña on the list off and on before ultimately leaving them out. Both will give you all-around value for multiple years at a good rate, and both have high floors. I eventually opted for a set of players with a greater chance of breaking out to a higher level of production, but they didn’t miss by much. Garcia, likewise, could have mixed in with some of the good-glove, might-hit options you’ll see in the 41-50 section of the list. He might be a shortstop if it weren’t for Bobby Witt Jr., and the power is certainly there, even if it can be inconsistent.
That leaves Busch and Kurtz, who are both hitting for power in the big leagues with a ton of team control remaining. I wanted to put both of them on the list, in fact, but as I’ve mentioned once already, there are tons of names and only so much space. This group would be, in some order, players 51-56; Gore is player no. 51.
…
I have to draw the line somewhere; we could list honorable mentions for days otherwise. That said, if you’re looking for players who might actually get traded this deadline, Ryan and Alcantara head a relatively thin group. Eugenio Suárez, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Cedric Mullins, and Ryan O’Hearn look like probable targets as well.
Next up, the first 10 players on this year’s rankings.
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @benclemens.
Maybe I’m wrong…Jones didn’t have TJ, it was internal brace.
You’re correct.
Even without considering his on-field value, Ohtani is the undisputed No.1, IMO.
“The evaluation of Ohtani wasn’t anywhere near the true value of the player,” Boras said. “Ohtani brings $150-250 million in revenue to a team. Ohtani also pitches. And Ohtani is also an MVP hitter. So, when you look at this, it’s going to be very easy to say that reflecting on what an MVP-type bat is worth in Juan Soto, then you evaluate Ohtani and see what he’s worth.”
When asked how much he thinks Ohtani is worth, Boras said: “He’s a billion-dollar player, for sure.”
dude you don’t need to spam about Ohtani
Bring back the wander javier guy
When I’m looking to make an objective evaluation of a player, the very first person I’m going to want to get an opinion from is Scott Boras.
What’s undeniable — and undeniably frustrating to fans and owners alike — is that despite the inflated dollar figure, Ohtani’s contract is the team-friendliest free agent deal in baseball history. Between his production and the revenue he helps the Dodgers generate, he is worth well over $100 million annually, not $46 million. And once the Dodgers were able to secure his services for the next decade, the franchise could still turn around and spend more than a billion dollars however it saw fit, perfectly content to pay the luxury tax.
“his customary average-in-the-strangest-way offensive line”
Oneil Cruz, 100 wRC+: .214/.317/.415
Kyle Teel, 102 wRC+: .243/.374/.311
Nothing to see here, just two guys who are basically the same player
Nobody ever said there’s only one way to be average. In fact, the opposite is pretty much implied by its very definition.
Can’t decide who I think is going to be the most controversial omission here. Gore (barely an omission), Kurtz (ditto), Burns, and Fried (contract be damned) were who jumped out to me, but I’m also probably glossing over someone in the glut of corner hitters
I’m guessing Isaac Paredes who has done nothing but hit. Although I sort of get it, although I rank him highly some people get weirded out by the way he gets there and how he takes advantage of his home stadium.
I am very interested to see who is going to be on the back half of this list—there are a lot of names on here that I would have put between 30 and 50.
I would love to see my full list. I don’t love Paredes that much as a player, but was surprised at how often I picked him due to being younger than I would have guessed and fairly cheap. That said, I think his trade value is lower than his production because, as you said, he plays up in certain stadiums.
Me too. I was pretty happy with my Top 10 and who I expect is between 11 and 19 or so, but I am super curious about everything after 20. Paredes is a surprisingly valuable player, although he’s most valuable to the Astros. Teams with stadiums like the Cubs are never going to trade for him (at least not again), but there probably 8 teams where he’d launch 25 homers a year for them (as opposed to 35 for the Astros).
Paredes is so weird and seemingly park dependent. It’s kind of a small sample size, but just in 2024 his HR/FB rate went from 10.7% playing in the park with the shortest LF foul line (315′, Tampa) to 5.7% in the park with the longest one (355′ Wrigley). Now he’s in Houston where the length is back to an Isaac friendly 315′, and he’s back up to 14.3%.
Could be an argument that Paredes lacks trade value because there’s only two stadiums where his approach really works, he plays in one, and the other broke.
(I haven’t done any kind of dive into how much of a hit he would take in various other stadia.)
The Statcast page has how many home runs he would be predicted to have if he played all his games in that park. It’s not perfect because he probably would get some nice benefits from smacking doubles off the Green Monster, but here are the stadiums where his style would play through 409 PAs (so, about 2/3rds of the way through the season):
Astros: 21 (plays here already)
Athletics: 16 (but this is not a real big league stadium)
Phillies: 16
Dodgers: 15
Padres: 15
Mariners: 14
Blue Jays: 14
Reds: 14
Cubs: 14 (I am very skeptical of this based on the distance to the LF wall, I think this is probably wrong)
Twins: 14 (see the Cubs, I don’t think this would work)
I think probably we’re looking at somewhere between 5-8 teams who would want to trade for him if you throw in the Red Sox (which is at 13 anyway). He has pretty strong plate discipline skills. But it’s true that he’s definitely the most valuable for Houston.
I wouldn’t trust what that Statcast page says about any player’s home run totals in Wrigley who doesn’t already play there, since home runs in that stadium are so dependent on the wind.
Paredes is an unusual case where he’s significantly more valuable to his current team than he would be to any other team in a trade.
Paredes is one of those guys where if you have the right situation for him, he will absolutely boost your offense…but do I think he’d perform worse in SF or SEA. I have no idea how to calculate that wrt TV, but I imagine it would lower it in general
I think to me, Pages is probably the biggest snub. I don’t see how you can look at an above average hitter and good defender with that much control and he ends up off the list. I don’t think he needs to be near the top of the list but to not be on it at all seems odd. Same with Wilyer Abreu, but Pages has the extra year of control
I would prefer Andy Pages over #46 Jordan Westburg. Give me the guy who’s made the transition to MLB successfully rather than the Orioles prospect who’s supposed to do it (fool me five times, shame on you…fool me a sixth…can’t get fooled again…)
I’m gonna mostly wait for the Friday chat to respond to people, and honestly I really like Pages, he definitely could have been on there, but for the record, Westburg has more major league PA than Pages and a higher wRC+ in those PA. I know the kind of player you’re talking about, but he hasn’t really been that type so far. He’s probably the least-heralded of their current crop, in fact. I just think he’s really good.
Not who you responded to, but I personally really like Westburg, don’t mind him being on the list at all, and we know exactly who he is (OBPs have literally gone .311, .312, and.313 in order which is fun). Projections seem to think he and Pages are about the same hitter, which is where I think the extra year of control from Pages becomes the dealbreaker, despite the positional flexibility Westburg has.
Close enough to quibble, after doing 500 or so matchups on the trade value tool I gained a new level of respect for you for putting this list together.
All fair points, Ben! And the difference between these guys is pretty thin (as is clear from the writing in general), so there’s probably a lot of hair-splitting…but then, that’s the point of rankings 😉 Hard to imagine any two people putting together the same list
Robert in the corner is gonna be the biggest steal.
Of course his low value is justified.
But look at his statcast and expected stats, look at what Vaughn has done since he left Chicago (and Sheets), look at what he did this weekend, and in July.
And remember he’s only 27.
Yeah, I don’t think he Robert has any trade value and am pretty shocked to see him on this list even as an HM. I know he’s underrated at this point because the x-stats say he should be more than just above replacement (actually, kind of good) but:
1) His injury history means his option isn’t getting picked up
2) Teams are not smart at all when it comes to x-stats and are just going to look at the actual production
How much would you trade for Luis Robert Jr as a rental who costs $7M? That’s $5M plus the buyout. I would trade something, because I know how to read x-stats, but I bet teams would literally be willing to trade more for Mike Tauchman.
Yea I don’t see teams being interested on Robert unless it’s like as a project. Also came here to say the same about Pages. I thought he’d be relatively high up the list, not entirely off it.
He’s only had 400 PA playing at this level, I’m fine pumping the breaks a tad.
You’re explaining why Robert is an interesting buy-low, not why he’s a valuable trade asset
True. Fair point.
Yea, I think he’s the best trade value for the buyer.
I guess I’m also saying that I bet that he’ll be back on this list next year.
For me it’s always the stars — guys with elite skills but paid fair market* always are raked too low imo. So I’ll go with Mookie who, yes isn’t hitting this year, but the glove still plays in some many places and he hit last year so I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a huge second half and still puts up 5 win seasons for a few more years. That said, Devers just got traded and didn’t fetch all that much for Boston (though Devers is more very good) so I realize the whole stars thinking has its limitations too.
But I’d also point out, that guys about to get paid, even if they are top three in the game, aren’t fetching a ton (hello Crochet) in the trade market these days.
Anyway, I’ll wait to see the whole list, but surprised Kwan and Gore didn’t make the top 50 (obviously they literally just missed).
*assuming owners are not in collusion.
Fried just signed for a bidding-inflated contract. This is a trade-value list; anyone who would trade for him now (now minus a half year of his peak) would have been better off just trying to win the bidding. Why would a team at this point surrender much of anything for him? Surely some teams trying to win this year would consider giving up a little something, but not more than what anyone on the top 50 list would bring in, right?
I think the controversial idea of Fried is the idea that he’s even an honorable mention, and I am a big fan of his.
Kurtz Kurtz Kurtz Kurtz and Kurtz.
Reading this after doing thousands of the trade value ranker tool / game / whatever is very interesting because there are a bunch of guys on this honorable mention list that I had win a lot of matchups. Pretty much everyone in the controllable role player and just missed categories I had winning a whole lot, and the same with Cam Smith and Oneil Cruz. I’m surprised none of them are on there, especially Cruz, Perdomo, Pena, Kurtz, Cam Smith, Butler, and Gore. Probably going to spend a lot of time on the back half of this list going “don’t think I would trade this guy for Oneil Cruz.”
I also like Schwellenbach a lot and think his injury probably will end up fine. But the one that I think I’m going to keep coming back to is Joe Ryan. For some reason Joe Ryan hasn’t gotten a ton of love leaguewide. He is a 4-win pitcher under team control for a couple years, probably in the 12-18 range of MLB starters. I am going to pretty sure I would take him over a bunch of players in the 30-50 range on the list.
Yeah, I think every team would think that they can make a tiny adjustment for Cruz and he ends up one of the best players in the league.
Agreed on Joe Ryan. Top 20 SP with 2.5 years of control. I’m not even clear on how he’s less than Gore.
I don’t think I’ll have major disagreements with who’s in the top half of Ben’s list, but man, I think the bottom half is gonna have a lot of guys that make me say, “Him?”
Yeah I was similar but I didn’t rank hundreds of players.
You shouldn’t have done as much as I did. I got addicted and went overboard.
Agreed on Schwellenbach. He’s the one name that stood out to me the most. A small fracture isn’t a big concern for me. If it was a serious soft tissue or TJ type injury, I could get on board. I’ll have to see how the rest of the list shakes out but I imagine I would have him in my top 50, possibly as high as 30.
I think that “hurt pitchers don’t make it on the list” is a fair rule so I’m not going to argue too much with that, but I’m really not worried about it.
Ryan is definitely underrated.
Spencer S has Cy Young ceiling but a broken elbow after a previous TJ surgery is a massive red flag.
Cal Raleigh not in the honorable mentions has gotta mean Cal Raleigh finally made the list after 2 years of missing it as a 5 WAR catcher, right?
Right???
I would be very surprised if Cal Raleigh isn’t in the Top 10, and completely stunned if he isn’t in the Top 15. The second or third best player in baseball this year (depending on what you think of Tarik Skubal and the framing metrics) who is under team control for another four or five years at relatively reasonable rates is going to be very valuable no matter what you think happens to him partway through the deal.
But I think you’re overstating it a little bit. Cal Raleigh had several years as a 4-win catcher (not 5), I (and others) are quite skeptical of the extreme values produced by the framing metrics listed here that were partly responsible for it, and catchers tend to decline early because of the pounding they take.
All of this is true (at the time of last publication, Raleigh hadn’t completed his 5 WAR 2024 yet). But it still feels silly that he was only the 7th highest catcher on last year’s list. Like, Francisco Alvarez and Gabriel Moreno over Raleigh? Really?
Ah well — all in the past now. Looking forward to this year’s edition!
My favorite article(s) every year. Looking forward to the rollout, as damaging as it may be to my productivity in office.
Completely agree with the framing this year, which I believe is laid out more explicitly than past years. I don’t care what the 26 teams who can’t afford Shohei would give up for him. I’m curious what price those other 3 teams would pay
Surprised about a few. Soto, even with the big deal. Paredes, Wilyer Abreu surprised me. Peña not making the list definitely surprised me. I still think Trea Turner has trade value too. But a lot of the guys mentioned here were guys I voted against in the trade value game, and felt like I was in the minority on my opinion of them, so glad to see some of those names here too
I really do not believe that the Mets could trade Soto without eating money. He has no trade value with that contract, even if he’s a top 3 hitter in baseball. If no one else was willing to give him that contract, they’re certainly not going to do so when he’s a year older.
Supposedly there were a couple other teams near where the Mets were $ was, including the Yankees. Meaning, his market isn’t one team, it’s probably more like three. Considering we know there are going to be guys on this list who’s contract also limits their suitors to less than five teams realistically, leaving Soto off seems wrong.
I assume he could be traded in certain situations / to certain teams, but I am not surprised that he is not one of the top 50 in trade value or one of the mentioned.
A year older and 2024 looks more like a career year than a new baseline. But even if he were hitting like 2024 Soto, I don’t think they could do better than simply giving him away.
Eh, his expected OBP and slugging is right at last years numbers. He hit into some horrendous luck at the beginning of the year.
We’re still talking about a 26 year old, who suddenly is providing baserunning value as well.
You could nitpick in either direction. If you think his 8.5 WAR season was a new baseline, that’s fine, but I disagree. He’s still a wonderful player. He’s just not prime Arod, Trout, etc. where a precedent-busting contract could possibly still have value (and also, the Arod deal and subsequent trade while a long time ago, probably still are the best evidence of how this would go, along with the more recent Stanton trade).
Assuming he’s not in the top 50, I’m curious about whether you considered including Rafael Devers in the HM section. I wouldn’t but the sense I got from your article on his trade to the Giants was that he was a superstar, whose value stretched well beyond WAR/dollar calculations.
That evaluation would seem to put Devers in the Stars on Big Deals category, as he fits the description, “could reasonably be on the top 50 in trade value for your particular team; they’re all obviously great.”
You could put him on that list if you wanted to, but I think he’s in a different bucket because his contract is probably slightly underwater and I don’t think any of the guys in that list are (although some are close).
He lost almost every matchup for me in the game. There’s nothing wrong with him exactly, he’s almost neutral value with the contract. But when I think about whether you’d rather have him or Samuel Basallo (or Chase Burns, Konnor Griffin, etc) I am 100% sure where I would land.
To be clear, I wouldn’t put him on the list, I just thought he might be there based on that previous article
It’s an interesting thought exercise considering we just saw what he commanded in return from the Giants. I am one of the Sox fans who was excited to be done with the drama and looking forward to what Bailey does with major league pitchers, to say nothing of the prospects.
That said, his performance since the trade and the constant injuries, combined with his body type, suggest he might have dropped into a category of being untradeable until he proves he can hit at Oracle and remain healthy for a season.
I would hope that a month wouldn’t change a player’s value much. I agree that his injuries and conditioning are concerns that would keep him off my personal list.
Surely you weren’t around for the comments-section furor last year when people realized he wasn’t on the list lol
I forgot about that!
Volpe isn’t a bust like dummies on sports talk radio and social media claim, but man what a disappointing year he’s had. Volpe hasn’t hit in the majors so far and now his defense per outs above average has fallen way off as he’s at -3 outs above average.
Yeah, but he is the shortstop of the greatest franchise in the greatest city with the greatest politics. He should be in the top 50
New York City is the Anthony Volpe of America
lol. Amazing response. NYC is more Juan Soto imo.
Francisco Lindor and Max Fried are high-end New York, Volpe and Ben Rice are the pizza-by-the-slice joints and food carts.
Soto is a super luxury New York penthouse, which most of us wouldn’t spend the money on even if we could. Mark Vientos is Staten Island.
Soto because:
Indisputably great – from the early beginning to the distant future. Exceptionally intense, but also fun. Mentally tough, competitive, physically imposing. But still flawed. Never the best. And egregiously expensive.
“Volpe isn’t a bust”
“what a disappointing year he’s had”
“Volpe hasn’t hit in the majors so far”
“his defense per outs above average has fallen way off”
One of these things is not like the others.
I mean he has been worth 6+ war in two and a half years in the majors that’s not a bust.
For a guy who was supposed to generate the most controversy, I am surprised a bit about the lack of discussion of Gore. Maybe it’s Ben’s thorough explanation of his and the contributors’ decision-making, but a top 15 pitcher for the past year could walk into the rotation for some of the 20 or so teams FG considers contenders and be their #1 in the playoffs, and there’s probably few teams where he wouldn’t be in their top 3. On top of that, you have the kicker of that performance for another 2 years (is his health risk worse than many other pitchers?). While 2 years, 3 stretch drives is less than 4 or so, some of the prospect cost can be recovered next trade deadline if a team is out of contention or after next season.
I forget Gore’s injury history. Maybe there’s an elevated risk. Otherwise, his risk shouldn’t be that much of a negative and it comes down to 3 pennant drives of a top performer vs maybe 4 or 5 of the guys who beat him out.
Last year Ben put Gore on at something like #47 and almost immediately Gore went into the tank, so everyone was like “I can’t believe Gore made it on this list” when it was totally justified when he wrote it during the all-star break. I don’t blame him for not wanting to get on that horse again but IMO he’s probably in the mid-30s for me.
If there were a top 50 of should be traded at this deadline, then I think Gore would be a lock. The mistiming of the Nats trade acquisitions and their historic inability to re-sign any player going into free agency practically dictates dealing Gore and Abrams (and 2d base Garcia) for players who could contribute on Wood / Crews / House’s timeline. DeBartolo says he’ll want to keep Gore but will always listen
Here is the most recent Yahoo player note on Nick Kurtz:
“His future potential is off the charts and Kurtz is already the top player at his position in dynasty formats. Oh yeah, he’s also an easy start in fantasy leagues already in his rookie season. He’s 22.”
So now I really want to see the 50 players with higher trade value!
Defense doesn’t matter in fantasy, it does in MLB trade value. But I do really like Kurtz and he won a ton of my matchups in the rankings tool game.
Well that’s fantasy, where BA and RBIs matter and defense doesn’t
Also Yahoo for fantasy? The place that uses AI for writers?
Apparently I am WAAAY more impressed with Rooker’s hitting and cheap contract (and less afraid of his age) than Ben. Since 2023 he’s been a top-10 hitter in the sport and ZIPS has him for 9.6 WAR the next 3 years while making $12M/yr. He kept winning trade matchups for me.
Was going to post the same thing – 6th best wOBA since the start of last year. Not that it matters for a trade value column that tries to figure out what a player might be worth but I wonder if the A’s would even trade him given how cheap he is and how long he’s signed for. He’s signed for long enough that he fits into their next window of contention.
Of course, it’s the A’s so he’s as good as gone eventually
Yea it’s hard for me to wrap my head around a nice, but unspectacular role player like Donovan or Perdomo bringing back equivalent value of a true impact bat like Rooker or even Stowers
So there are 32 returning players and 18 additions to the list, I think I have most of the new additions but not all (roughly in order):
PCA
Sanchez
Woo
Raleigh
Anthony
Caminero
Wilson
Brown
Baldwin
JMis
Mayer
Herrera
Jac?
Strider?
Wheeler?
Kirk?
Greene, mcgonigle,clark, torkelson
Baez
You could make an argument. Good defensive player at every position but catcher. If he just hits above average, a 4 win player? Plus, heart, leadership, and has been there before. Worth a lot
You can “make an argument” in the sense that you can say words. That, of course, does not make the argument compelling
Lolol torkelson. Ok homer
Was Crochet on there last year? He’s definitely on there now. Same with Cristopher Sanchez, whose contract is unbelievably cheap considering that he’s like the 10th best starter in MLB right now.
Probably Kris Bubic too, and almost certainly Cedanne Rafaela (I’m skeptical of his performance but that contract is unbelievably team friendly even if he regresses).
If Buxton wasn’t on there last year, he might be on there (although I’m pretty sure I’d take Pena over him). Same with CJ Abrams (but I think he was on there last year).
I don’t think Jac is on there, he wasn’t on the trade game. But I also would have put him in the “young guys” section of the Honorable Mentions.
Personally I would not have Mayer or Herrera on it either (not over about 15 exclusions in the HMs), and I’m skeptical of putting Misiorowski on it too after 25 MLB innings. As good as he looks, the risk of him blowing out his arm when he throws 99 is off the charts and he’s literally never thrown strikes this well in the minors. If he’s still doing this next year he’ll be in the Top 20 easily, maybe Top 10, but he scares me.
If Sanchez isn’t on there, people should riot, but I won’t hold my breath. Weirdly underrated for being a Phillie
Jac ain’t making it if Kurtz is off the list
Wasn’t expecting a Brooks Baldwin shoutout for the top 50.
I expect to see at least 5 tigers. Maybe more.
Enjoy the zoo!
I recommend the staten island zoo over the Bronx one.
Greatest zoo in the greatest city, etc
Excited to see the rest of this! It’s a great feature every year. Any chance we’ll also get a trade block series with players most likely to move at the deadline?
The 41-50 list is going to be very controversial. I think it will have several of the following: Abrams, Westburg, Buxton, Keller, Contreras, Frelick, Langford, H. Kim, Eury, L. Castillo.
I’d definitely take Joe Ryan, Kurtz, Busch, O Cruz, Aranda, W Abreu, Barger, and Perdomo over any of those guys. Joe Ryan is so underrated. Every team would bet they could improve Cruz. Busch/Aranda/Abreu/Barger – yes i have a type. If you walk, make decent contact, have power, and don’t crash the profile with groundballs I don’t see what’s not to like. Kurtz still has some contact issues but a 22yo with 18% barrel rate is special. I’d rather McGonigle, Made, and Burns too – but understand that prospect preferences are fickle.
I also assume this means that Vlad, Devers, and Machado don’t even make the HM section. Which i think is the right call. Hate all 3 contracts.
Sorry but Kurtz should be in the top 30 easily. I’m sorry but starters with 3 years of control who are solid 3s in a rotation are not more valuable than 5 years of Kurtz.
He doesn’t even have 250 PA.
This is kind of like when people were arguing that Jackson Holiday should be in like the top 10 two years ago. Let’s see them actually produce for a while — I know Kurtz was a top five pick last year and the prospect pedigrees matches the production so far, but he’s a 1B/DH with 60 games and we’re not far removed from Andrew Vaughn and Torkelson falling on their faces in the majors with similar profiles (top three picks that were 1B only ((yes Tokelson has been good this year finally)).
Kurtz has already shown he’s better capable of handling MLB pitching than Vaughn or Tork. He’s got a better swing than both. Obvious the K rate is too high at the moment but he was drafted last year.
The reasons and justification for players on or not on get worse every year. I’d recommend someone else give a try next year, get a different perspective from someone with less obvious biases against certain types of contracts and players.
The list is so bad every year you wonder if it’s semi intentional to get clicks.
What certain types of contracts and players is Ben (and his industry cross-checkers) biased against?
Is the issue with how he defined trade value or that you don’t like what trade value represents? I occasionally think Ben overvalues SS, but you know what? So do MLB clubs, so what am I gonna say about it? He’s pretty transparent about what he’s doing and why; do you think another analyst would be dramatically different? I don’t get the anger; it’s not like Ben personally hates Juan Soto and has been degrading his value accordingly
Not sure how Sandy Alcantara makes this list as an honorable mention. If it wasn’t the trade deadline we’d likely be talking about him as a salary dump.
He turns 30 in 2 months, is owed about 7mil for the rest of the season and guaranteed 19mil for next season (17+2 bo) with a 1mil trade kicker. The Marlins have to move him now or risk being stuck with him (they don’t have the payroll flexibility to eat 19mil if that’s what it turns into). Even throwing out the 7.14 ERA, the 5.1 xERA, 4.66 FIP and 4.51 xFIP paint the portrait of a negative asset @ 19+ mil/yr.
Optimistically he still throws hard and he was 6th in fWAR among pitchers from 2021-2022 (and has an additional team option for 2027), so the ceiling is high, but the floor is real low. Doubt the Marlins get a player close to a top-100 prospect list.
I’m confused by that as well. I get the name brand value but this looks like someone that doesn’t belong on an MLB roster right now
He almost looks like Noah Syndergaard did a few years ago though he does throw harder than Noah did in 2023
I think some of it was written a long time ago, and some of it was updated more recently. Some of the player burbs like Rafaela seem up to date, where as some of the player burbs seem like something from April or May. Which is fine, these projects obviously take a long time.
I’m probably higher than most on Holliday, but I’d say he’s one of best of the HM in my mind. For uber-top prospects that reach the majors super young, I think we often write them off too early. Holliday is still only 21 years old. He’s younger than many of the top prospects on the Board right now, and while he’s not having an excellent season, he’s been a slightly above average hitter both by surface metrics and quality of contact.
Projection systems are good at adjusting for production at different ages. ZiPS projects him to be the 37th best position player in 2026 (3.5 WAR) and the 19th best in 2027 (4.2 WAR). As someone with lot’s of service time remaining, that’s an incredibly valuable player.
The ZiPS 3 year projections don’t update midseason I believe, so I’d really caution against taking that at face value this far into the season.
I don’t see it. He’s still so young and could still break out, but I think people are too caught up on the elite prospect status. He’s a bad defensive 2nd baseman without a real carrying tool. He’s not even on pace for 2 WAR this year. I’d have e.g. Oneil Cruz well ahead of him because even with similar offensive production and less team control the tools are so much louder.
Ah, didn’t realize that.
I would still put Holliday well above Cruz because at his age, the expectation (all else being equal), is that he will improve over the next several years. At 26, the expectation for Cruz (all else being equal) is that he’s reached his peak.
Since 2010, there have been 49 seasons by players 21 or younger who had at least 350 PA. Most of those players turned out to be very good (even those with average/bad young seasons).
I’m with Gravemaster but it is an interesting debate. I see a top prospect who is still really young, whose already holding his own. Most players don’t peak until mid to late 20s. Obviously you don’t control him through all that time period, but I bet sometime in the next 1-3 years there is a “Holiday is starting to deliver presents” type article and he’s an all star. Again though I see what your saying and its not an open and shut case.
I don’t really disagree with his ranking fyi. About where i would put him. If he does break out, he is not signing a cheap extension.
I agree with Gravesmaster- I’m not an Orioles fan so pretty objective here. He’ll still be 21 when the season ends. And he has an above average batting line. The list of 21 year olds they play significant time in the majors and are actually above average with the bat is….a real small list. Pretty sure Jaffe did an article a while back saying to just make the majors at that age and stick bumps your HOF chances by several multiples. That’s how hard it is to do. And it seems like that garners a collective yawn here 🤷♂️
It feels like there are way more guys with trade value this year, because this list is very deep
Joe Ryan, Pages, Abreu, Gore, Kurtz all feel like they have very real arguments for top 50
Then Aranda, Barger, Smith, Garcia, Holliday, Moreno, etc who all feel very valuable. That’s not getting into the prospects or expensive stars
Is there more guys with trade value now, for whatever reason?
I think there are. When I was doing the trade value game I was kind of surprised how many players that I thought for sure would wind up in the Top 10 weren’t there. EDLC, Jackson Chourio, Jackson Merrill, Riley Greene…and I’m not even sure they’re terribly close to the guys who were there.
Yeah to me Joe Ryan stands out bc if the Twins trade him, I think he would get a huge haul. So him not being t50 was surprising
I mean even Holliday, the guy was the #1 prospect and while he hasn’t been great, he’s been okay. Him not being t50 goes to show how many valuable guys there are for whatever reason
EDLC didn’t make your top 10?
No, and I was surprised by that. But when I went through it, I found it really hard to justify putting him above the players who were there.
Based on how I was ranking I bet he clocked in around #14. Which is crazy low, he’s a 4 or 5 win player under control for four more years…
Hard to disagree with many arguments made in this article, in fact a number of them are in line with my hobby horses (the Catcher situation and Contract Size questions in particular) and I’m glad to see the multi-year overranking of Austin Riley finally reconciled, although his dropping from the teens to off the list (a dubious distinction typically reserved for a tanking the likes of his teammate Harris) is only proof of that.
Cant argue too much any of the names left off. There are a few guys I like a little more but they all have questions and/or caveats to where its an Eye of the Beholder thing
I find it rather questionable to bucket Jarren Duran as an “indifferent” value defender and “average” corner guy, given that he has put up plenty of time in CF and visibly improved there from badly flawed (pre-2003) to okay (2003) to by many measures clearly positive, while putting up average-ish measures in the metric-defying zone that is Fenway Park’s LF. So we’re just pigeon-holing him (even though his lack of CF time this year is tied more to the presence of a superlative-defending teammate) as a corner OFer only and an ordinary one at that…
…but Oneil Cruz is an “excellent” center fielder? Really?
I don’t doubt that there is some manner of defensive evaluation that might see things this way, but have we nailed down some consensus way to judge defense (especially over smaller samples) to arrive at such a major gap between these two.
I mean, the linked article on a metric basis presents DRS, DRP, OAA, and FRV, so I guess that’s what we can look at for Duran too? If we try to judge Cruz’s defense this year minus the first half of April, and then very conservatively (to be quick but also to err in his favor) double his metric results in the article, his DRS/OAA/FRV measures would be +6/+8/+10, over 1000ish innings. Duran in a career-high 810 innings in 2024 put up +17/+7/+9 in the same measures.
I’m not assuming that this is all wrong in either been too negative on Duran (bias alert!) or too positive on Cruz; I’m just wondering what I’m missing! If the idea is that Cruz’s rapid blossoming in CF projects him to soon be a high-value defender, yeah, that I can buy. I more think that the article missed some major context to group Duran defensively with the others that it did. I am ready to stand corrected!
How does average at almost any position (Donovan) scale worse than “average at a corner position” for “overall defensive value” for the “controllable role players”?
I really disagree with the generality “but if your team is sending you to Triple-A for a reset, you don’t belong on this list at the moment.”
How many players have been sent down for a reset? Last year Jackson Holliday is a good example if the O’s had decided to move him most teams would pick up that phone. While he’s yet to break out at the major league level he’s much improved in his second year.
I think the argument is the same as the one for leaving out notably injured pitchers: that the disjoint between their value profile and concern about when and how well they will recover means they (temporarily) aren’t tradeable. He’s not saying their value has vanished; he’s saying that whatever has led to the need for a “reset” has disrupted the present-day feel for the piece enough that it would be too hard to trade them, as a selling team isn’t going to want to sell low and a buying team isn’t going to want to value them at prior full value. If the reset lingers for a while, then that starts to present a picture of lowered actual value, whereas full value returns as soon as the guy is back on track.
Total nitpick, but I don’t see why Robert Jr would even be considered for HM. He has negative trade value. The White Sox will have to eat some of the contract to trade him. He’s a 1 WAR player, so his $20M options aren’t worth anything.
I got genuinely terrified when I saw that 33 next to Francisco Alvarez’s name and started questioning everything I know.
Finally saw Walcott play and he looks like a capital D Dude and jumped off the page as the best player in the game he was playing. Ball sounds different off his bat (reminding me of Wood)
I would put Gore in the top 20. He is striking guys out right and left. If he had a bullpen and defense behind him that was much better than the NATS supply, he would be close to if not in the cy young conversation. But the NATS defense is awful and the bullpen can’t hold runners at all. All the NATS starters stats have been badly ruined by both. At least a full run a game for most of them.
I really want to know how Ryan isn’t top 50. I’d take him over several players on the list for sure.