2025 Trade Value: Introduction and Honorable Mentions

“Who you got?” It seems like such a simple question. If you’ve ever swapped baseball cards during recess or tried to pick somewhere to eat on a Friday night, you’ve asked yourself this. The choice between two options seems easy. But then you add a third option, and a fourth, and a 139th, and suddenly you’re obsessing over whether you’d prefer your third-favorite Thai restaurant to your fourth-favorite Italian place. Or perhaps, if you’ve used our new crowdsourced trade value tool, you’re deciding between CJ Abrams and Andrew Abbott. Making decisions is hard!

Welcome to the 2025 edition of our annual Trade Value series. Starting today and continuing all week, we’re releasing our list of the 50 most valuable players in baseball, taking player performance, age, and contract into account. Dave Cameron, Kiley McDaniel, Craig Edwards, and Kevin Goldstein have all headlined this column before; this is my fourth year doing it on my own.

Of course, “on my own” is a bit of a misnomer. The process of building this list starts with me gathering every possible input I can find: age, contract status, measures of current production, estimates of future production, Statcast data, pitch-level modeling, scouting reports – if it can be written down, I try to consider it in my first pass. I use all of those inputs to come up with an initial quantitative ranking, then hone that ranking by diving deeper into individual player comparisons. After I have things in good order, I consult with the FanGraphs staff to refine my thinking further. (Special thanks are due to Dan Szymborski for his ZiPS assistance, Eric Longenhagen for being a frequent sounding board as I iterated on the list, Meg Rowley for her help shepherding it through to publication, and Sean Dolinar for his technical assistance.) Next, I reach out to sources on the team side. Here I try to gather perspectives on player value from organizations that have different methodological leanings, different budgets and goals, and that are in different places in the competitive cycle.

Make no mistake, though: Despite all the help that this gracious group of people was kind enough to offer me, these rankings are my own. This list is my subjective ranking of the 50 players in baseball who I think would fetch the most if their team traded them. It’s not a consensus list of which players are valued most by the industry, though there is of course considerable overlap with that criteria. There are players on the list who I’m higher on than consensus and vice versa; I’ll call out the largest disagreements in the individual write-ups. If I rank a player higher than consensus, it certainly doesn’t mean that consensus is wrong, though obviously I think it is.

I’m ranking these players by trying to answer the following question: Taking everything about a player into account, which players would garner the highest trade value, from any team, if every team viewed players the same way I do? That’s not the average value that each team would assign based on their own competitive window and financial limitations. In real world trades, there’s a highest bidder, a team most motivated to acquire a player’s services, and that’s the value I care about when it comes to this list. To give you an example from today’s honorable mentions, there are a lot of teams that couldn’t trade for Bryce Harper regardless of the acquisition cost; they simply wouldn’t have the budget to build a team around him. That doesn’t matter, though, because it only takes a handful of teams to make a market. If 24 teams cry poor while the five biggest markets in the game engage in a bidding war for a player, then what those 24 teams thought didn’t affect the outcome.

I think this is an important distinction. You can imagine looking at this list from the perspective of a small-market team, or a rebuilding team, or a team with an All-Star already entrenched at a given position, and scratching your head at the order. The Royals wouldn’t trade for Francisco Lindor (spoiler: he’s on the main part of the list). Where would they play him, and how would they make the numbers work? The White Sox wouldn’t trade for Tarik Skubal (more spoilers: he’s on there, too). They’d still be terrible, and he’s leaving after 2026 anyway.

A list of aggregate preferences, averaged across all 30 teams, might look different. But that’s not how trades work in the real world, so it’s not how I’m evaluating players for this series. All I care about is the highest offer a player might fetch, because in the end, that’s what determines their value in trade. As long as there’s no hard salary cap and star players are in short supply, the best players on the market carry a trade premium beyond what you’d expect from a linear accounting of wins and dollars, and I’ve attempted to account for that in my rankings.

Every year, I try to improve my understanding of this specific dynamic. We keep getting evidence that teams will give up “value” in the raw cost per projected win sense to acquire stars, but few trades in recent years have put that to the test with the very top few players in the majors. Until we see a player of Lindor’s caliber (or any of the other names I’ll reveal to you over the next five days) move, I can only speculate about how the market would set their value, but I believe these are good estimates even without certain knowledge.

After organizing players into tiers within the top 50 on a trial basis last year, I’m expanding on that in 2025 by defining those tiers a bit more tightly. Grouping players this way does a better job of explaining my thinking. It also drives home a point that is perpetually difficult to make when creating lists: not every one-spot gap in the rankings means the same thing. The first and last players in a given tier are closer to each other in value than they are to the nearest players in neighboring tiers. The tiers will be demarcated in the table that appears at the end of each article in the series, and I’ll also refer to them as I explain my thinking about the first and last player within each one.

As I mention every year, 50 is just a number; it’s true both of age and the number of players we put on this list. That decision was made a long time ago, and it was a wise one. There has to be some cutoff – there are more than 50 honorable mentions! – and 50 does a good job of getting the best players on the list without leaving too much fluff at the bottom. That said, cutting things off at 50 implies a bright-line distinction between the last guy I ranked and the first guy I left off that doesn’t reflect reality. The players checking in from 38th down to what would be 58th are all quite close in my estimation. You could make an argument for many players who are just off the list replacing the back end of it, and believe me, plenty of the people I talked to did just that.

For the players below who appeared on last year’s list, you’ll see their 2024 ranking in parentheses after their name. I’ve also included a section of players who made the list last year but fell off and aren’t honorable mentions this year. This Friday at 10 AM ET, I’ll hold a chat so that I can take your questions on the full list.

That’s a lot of words about the process of making this list, and there will be plenty more in the comments accompanying each ranked player. For now, though, let’s get to the honorable mentions.

Departing the List, Not an Honorable Mention
Luis Robert Jr. (28)
Francisco Alvarez (33)
Jared Jones (45)
Justin Steele (49)

Robert might belong on the very fringes of the honorable mention discussion, but I didn’t seriously consider him for inclusion, so he lands here. He’d just be too maddening to trade for, and picking up his $20 million option for 2026 isn’t an automatic decision, so he might be a rental anyway. Alvarez has plenty of team control left and I still think he’ll end up being a valuable player, but if your team is sending you to Triple-A for a reset, you don’t belong on this list at the moment.

Jones and Steele, on the other hand, are injury cases. Jones missed most of the second half of the season last year, then had Tommy John surgery this May. I love his potential, but I’m worried about the likelihood that he remains both explosive and healthy. Steele had an elbow surgery of his own (a modified UCL revision plus flexor tendon repair) and won’t be back until midway through 2026. Bummer.

Injured Pitchers
Cole Ragans (21)
Grayson Rodriguez (46)
Shane McClanahan (HM)
Spencer Schwellenbach

A quick refresher on how I’m treating injured pitchers these days: I exclude them. No one would trade for a player who is currently on the shelf with a serious injury. The information asymmetry and uncertainty are both just too high. Even if you expect them to return to their prior form, how long will it take for them to ramp back up? This is the kind of trade that would get you vilified if it didn’t work, and the risks are material.

Schwellenbach would absolutely be on the list if it weren’t for the fractured elbow that placed him on the 60-day IL. Maybe it’ll be totally fine. I hope it is. But it’s a rare enough injury that I’d want to see him back and effective before trading for him. The same goes for Ragans, who’s on the 60-day IL himself with a rotator cuff strain. He already has two TJs in his career, so arm troubles are particularly worrisome for him. I hope he’s back at full strength soon, but I wouldn’t trade for him until he is.

Likewise, Rodriguez hasn’t appeared since last July, and recently suffered a setback in his rehab that has his availability this season in doubt. McClanahan hasn’t pitched in the majors since August 2023, but he’s on track to return to action soon. He was a contender for being the best young pitcher in baseball before getting hurt, and I expect him to end up back in that conversation again before too long, although to be fair, he’s now 28.

Stars on Big Deals
Austin Riley (18)
Mookie Betts (20)
Bryce Harper (41)
Freddie Freeman (HM)
Matt Chapman
Max Fried
Matt Olson
Trea Turner (HM)

All of these guys are very good. Other than Turner, all of them are making mid-$20-million salaries, and all are performing at All-Star levels. You know what you’re getting. Any of these players could reasonably be on the top 50 in trade value for your particular team; they’re all obviously great. I had them outside the cutoff but would happily go out of my way to trade for any of them.

A few notes on the three who were on the list in 2024: Riley got hurt last August in the midst of a down season. He hasn’t bounced back to his previous perpetually-five-win form, and I think he’s more nice player than secret superstar now. Betts is a phenomenon, one of my favorite players of his generation, and he’s consistently found ways to adapt and improve even as he ages. I think he’ll probably bounce back from this year’s career-worst showing. But I’m not certain, you know? Harper could easily be in the top 50 still, and he easily could have missed last year; he’s right in that range. Great player, good deal, wouldn’t fault anyone for having him higher, but there are plenty of names and only so many spots.

This also feels like the right place to mention that Juan Soto isn’t on this list, and he isn’t an honorable mention. I’m generally skeptical of “oh, the surplus value!” pearl-clutching, but Soto’s deal is the kind of gargantuan contract that limits your market to a single team, and he’s already on that team. Think of him like a Lamborghini, the kind of luxury good whose value doesn’t really fit into an exercise like this. The point of the Soto deal is that the Mets can sign him to it, not that other teams would be willing to trade a lot to get him.

Catchers, Man
Gabriel Moreno (34)
Sean Murphy (HM)
Dillon Dingler
Iván Herrera
Austin Wells

Catcher performance varies more than any other offensive position. I think it’s probably related to the extreme difficulty of the job, though I can’t prove it. Either way, though, big league catchers have struggled to sustain top-end performance in recent years. Teams have noticed, too; take a look at the extensions and free agent contracts signed by backstops, and you’ll see that the top ones tend to opt for longer years at lower dollar values than you’d expect given their projected performance. Peaks have been short, and framing in particular seems to revert heavily towards average for all but the greatest defensive catchers. As such, I’ve been conservative with my estimation of catcher value, but I think reasonably so.

Moreno would be on the list if he played more, but three years into his major league career, he still hasn’t put together a 400-PA campaign. He’s a great complementary piece, above average in every facet of the game, but without a true carrying tool. Murphy has been high on this list before, but he briefly fell to backup status last year, and his trajectory is thus uncertain at best. I’d love to have him on my team, but probably not as my only option.

Dingler is solid defensively and is showing some sneaky offensive potential this year. Herrera might end up at first base or DH, and is in fact DHing more than he’s catching this year, but there’s some chance he can just hit his way to stardom anyway. Wells, like Dingler, is solid across the board, but similarly doesn’t have an obvious carrying tool. He’s a good example of a guy who I downgraded slightly because of my assumption that defense is mean-reverting.

Defenders with Sketchy Bats
Michael Harris II (12)
Patrick Bailey (26)
Anthony Volpe (38)
Ezequiel Tovar (39)
Brice Turang (HM)

Ah, Michael Harris II, the source of the most disagreement on last year’s list. The doubters have had the upper hand in that debate so far; Harris simply hasn’t been able to make his swing-happy ways work at the plate. He’s fallen below replacement level for the year despite his usual excellent defense thanks to a 51 wRC+. Projection systems still love him, but no one’s swinging a blockbuster deal for a guy with a .237 OBP. Bailey is in a similar boat; he was a four-win player last year and he might not miss that mark by much this year, but he’s slumped offensively to a barely playable level. He’s hitting better than Harris and is also more valuable defensively – he’s the best defensive catcher in the sport – but the offensive results just aren’t good enough to land him on the list.

Volpe has never delivered on the promise he showed as a prospect; he’s a good defender who will probably never be an impact offensive player. The same is true of Tovar, whose offense is undone by his inability to lay off pitches in the dirt. They’re both nice defenders and will be around for quite a while at a reasonable rate, but they’re tracking more like solid regulars than standouts. I like Turang a bit more than those two at the moment. He has more offensive promise and might have the defensive chops for short, though the Brewers seem happy to leave him at second, where he’s Gold Glove caliber.

Controllable Pitching
Tanner Bibee (47)
Sandy Alcantara (HM)
Joe Ryan (HM)
Andrew Abbott
José Soriano

I like all five of these guys as useful, playoff-rotation-worthy options. They’re all around for multiple years at reasonable rates. Every team needs more pitching, and if it’s not of the scale-shattering, elite variety, they’d also love to get that pitching with cost certainty. Concerns about each of these guys notwithstanding, there’d be a robust market for their services if they got traded. We might get to see exactly how robust in the case of both Alcantara and Ryan, who appear to be on the trading block as we approach the deadline. Trades involving top 50 trade value players are rare these days, so the return for these two might be the best we get when it comes to calibrating value this year.

The True Rental
Kyle Tucker (HM)

Tucker isn’t a top 50 trade value, but he’s a top 10 player, and he’ll be a prized free agent this winter unless something unexpected happens on the extension front. He’s a complete offensive player in the prime of his career. The Cubs aren’t trading him, but if they did, playoff teams would be clamoring for his services.

Controllable Role Players
Jarren Duran (HM)
Colt Keith (HM)
Matt McLain (HM)
Isaac Paredes (HM)
Brent Rooker (HM)
Jonathan Aranda
Wilyer Abreu
Addison Barger
Lawrence Butler
Brendan Donovan
Andy Pages
Geraldo Perdomo
Kyle Stowers

Duran, Keith, Rooker, Aranda, Barger, Butler, Donovan, and Stowers all look like good offensive options with indifferent overall defensive value, ranging from average at a corner position down to DH-preferred. Of those, I like the best hitter (Rooker) and the most versatile defender (Donovan) the most, but all of them look like useful starters for championship contenders. You can’t go wrong with any member of this group.

McLain is a trickier situation. He looked like a star when he debuted in 2023, but he missed all of 2024 with injury and the juice just isn’t back on offense yet. There’s high upside here, but plenty of risk too. Paredes is great, perpetually underrated even, but he’s in the ideal spot for his skills, and when the Rays traded him last year, they didn’t get a ton back despite his excellent production. Perdomo has taken a step forward on offense this year, though I still can’t quite wrap my head around his approach; I’m definitely lower on him than the median, but I have to admit that he’s pretty dang good.

Abreu and Pages are a cut above the rest of this group. Both of them would be eminently reasonable options for the tail end of the list. They’re both fine defenders with above-average bats, and both will be around for quite a while. This general skill set – well-rounded without any standout offerings – forms the backbone of playoff contenders across the league.

Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz (HM)

I didn’t know where to put Cruz, so I made a category just for him. He’s a singular player anyway, a Pro Bowl tight end playing baseball. He’s huge and long-levered, with the Statcast numbers and strikeout rate to match. This year, he’s gone from indifferent shortstop to excellent center fielder, with his customary average-in-the-strangest-way offensive line. He’s great, he’s fun, he won’t be a free agent until 2029, and I hope he continues to play center field at the spectacular level he’s displayed in recent months.

Exciting, Unproven
Jackson Holliday (37)
Jasson Domínguez
Cam Smith

Any of these three could have made the top 50. Several people I talked to wanted at least one of them on the list, but I’m not sold on any of them right now. I’m particularly confused by Holliday; I thought that he’d hit for power and take walks, hence his ranking last year, but he hasn’t done either yet. If I had to pick one of this trio, I’d take Smith, but all three are great players who will likely hit at the major league level.

Young Guys
Samuel Basallo
Chase Burns
Kristian Campbell
Dylan Crews
Konnor Griffin
Kevin McGonigle
Jesús Made
Andrew Painter
Roki Sasaki
Sebastian Walcott

As is customary, I asked Eric Longenhagen for a list of prospects and young big leaguers who have big upside, or could crack the list next year if they continue at their current pace. With plenty of recent debuts on the list proper, this is a slimmer group than normal, but there’s still plenty of upside here. Not all of these guys are on fire at the moment; Burns hasn’t clicked in the big leagues yet, Campbell (minors) and Crews (IL) have been rough offensively, and Sasaki had a nightmare start to his big league career before getting hurt. The potential, though! If history is any precedent, four or five of these names will be on next year’s top 50, with some of them right up at the top of the list. We’re not sure which of them it will be or they’d already be on there, but we’re high on all of these guys being good in the big leagues, as is the industry.

Just Missed
Steven Kwan (30)
MacKenzie Gore (50)
Jeremy Peña (HM)
Michael Busch
Maikel Garcia
Nick Kurtz

I had each one of these players in the top 50 at one point or another during construction of the list. Gore was the last cut, in fact; I started him in the high 30s and kept moving him lower throughout the process, but I’m not at all confident that he’s a better fit here than he would be in the main section. He’s a top-15 pitcher in baseball over the last year and has spectacular tools and pedigree; you can dream on him being the best pitcher in your playoff rotation. In the end, the scant years of control and the fact that pitchers sometimes get hurt pushed him just off the list, but it was a tough decision, and I’m not at all sure it was the right one.

Likewise, I had Kwan and Peña on the list off and on before ultimately leaving them out. Both will give you all-around value for multiple years at a good rate, and both have high floors. I eventually opted for a set of players with a greater chance of breaking out to a higher level of production, but they didn’t miss by much. Garcia, likewise, could have mixed in with some of the good-glove, might-hit options you’ll see in the 41-50 section of the list. He might be a shortstop if it weren’t for Bobby Witt Jr., and the power is certainly there, even if it can be inconsistent.

That leaves Busch and Kurtz, who are both hitting for power in the big leagues with a ton of team control remaining. I wanted to put both of them on the list, in fact, but as I’ve mentioned once already, there are tons of names and only so much space. This group would be, in some order, players 51-56; Gore is player no. 51.

…

I have to draw the line somewhere; we could list honorable mentions for days otherwise. That said, if you’re looking for players who might actually get traded this deadline, Ryan and Alcantara head a relatively thin group. Eugenio Suárez, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Cedric Mullins, and Ryan O’Hearn look like probable targets as well.

Next up, the first 10 players on this year’s rankings.