Matt Olson is having an outstanding career. Since breaking into the big leagues late in the 2016 season, the 31-year-old first baseman has blasted 273 home runs — including 54 in 2023 — while logging a 132 wRC+. A left-handed hitter, he’s garnered two All-Star nods, two Gold Gloves, and one Silver Slugger award. Originally with the Oakland Athletics, Olson has worn an Atlanta Braves uniform since they acquired him via trade in March 2022.

He was a promising-yet-polarizing prospect when Kiley McDaniel ranked him second behind Franklin Barreto on our 2015 Athletics Top Prospect list. Olson’s raw power was obvious, but there were also question marks. While some scouts were bullish on his future, others had their reservations. Drafted 47th overall in 2012 out of Parkview High School in Lilburn, Georgia, Olson had a degree of boom-or-bust in his profile.

What did Olson’s February 2015 FanGraphs scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think about it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what McDaniel wrote and asked Olson to respond to it.

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“Olson has some pedigree as a former sandwich pick out of an Atlanta-area high school.”

“Once you get into pro ball it doesn’t matter too much,” Olson said. “At the same time, organizationally they kind of care more about the investment that is put into a guy than the player actually playing the game. As far as [having signed out of high school], you’re only playing 50 games in college, as opposed to 140 in the minors. As a hitter, I think it can be beneficial to get out there and get the day in, day out a little bit sooner.”

“He had a huge year in the Cal league last year and he has some big tools, headlined by easy plus power from the left side.” Read the rest of this entry »

Brady House is a high-ceiling slugger knocking on the door of the big leagues. Drafted 11th overall by the Washington Nationals in 2021 out of Winder-Barrow High School in Winder, Georgia, the 22-year-old third baseman is slashing .299/.352/.521 with a 128 wRC+ over 256 plate appearances with the Triple-A Rochester Red Wings. Befitting his sturdy 6-foot-4 frame and plus power from the right side, House has hammered 14 doubles and 12 home runs.

His approach might best be described as old school. Asked about his M.O. at the plate, the promising youngster told me his primary goal is simply to hit the ball hard and get on base. And he definitely hits the ball hard. His max exit velocity this season is 112.4 mph, which ranks in the 90th percentile at the Triple-A level. As for his ability to leave the yard, House doesn’t hunt for homers so much as he buys into the process.

“I hit the most home runs when I go up there not trying to hit a home run,” he said. “If I go up there just trying to get a base hit, it just ends up accidentally happening.”

It’s not by accident that House hits home runs in all directions. He called using the entire field an important part of his approach, and the data back up the words. His spray chart shows three homers ripped to right, four blasted to center, and five launched to left. His overall pull rate is actually a career-high 49.4%, but that’s not necessarily by design. While an adjustment is part of the equation, how he’s being attacked is playing a bigger role in his pulling more pitches. Read the rest of this entry »

Ron Washington has formed strong opinions over his long time in the game. One of them is built on old-school common sense. The 73-year-old Los Angeles Angels manager doesn’t believe in hefty hacks from batters who don’t possess plus pop, and that’s especially the case when simply putting the ball in play can produce a positive result. Which isn’t to say he doesn’t like home runs — “Wash” is no fool — it’s just that he wants his hitters to play to the situation. Moreover, he wants them to play to their own strengths.

The subject came up when the veteran manager met with the media prior to a recent game at Fenway Park. Zach Neto had gone deep the previous day — it was his 10th dinger on the season — and Washington stated that he doesn’t want the young shortstop thinking home run. I proceeded to ask him if he likes any hitter thinking home run.

“That’s a tough question,” he replied. “You’ve got guys that are home run hitters — that’s what they do — and you’ve also got guys that are home run hitters who are ‘hitters.’ There are guys that can walk up to the plate, look for a pitch, and take you deep if you throw it. Neto is not one of them.

“The game of baseball has transitioned itself to the point where everybody is worried about exit velocity and launch angle,” added Washington. “Even little guys have got a launch angle. They’re supposed to be putting the ball in play, getting on the base paths, causing havoc on the base paths, and letting the guys that take care of driving in runs drive in the runs. But for some reason, the industry right now… everybody wants to be a long-ball hitter. And I see a lot of 290-foot fly balls. I see a lot of 290-foot fly balls where they caught it on a barrel. If you caught the ball on a barrel and it only went 290 feet, you’re not a home run hitter. I see a lot of that.”

What about hitters that do have plus power? Does Washington like them thinking home run? That follow-up elicited any even lengthier response. Read the rest of this entry »

In early April, Davy Andrews penned an article that ran here at FanGraphs and began with the following: “You may have noticed that this is the Year of the Kick-Change.” My colleague went on to explain the pitch, which by now most people reading this are well familiar with. Our own coverage of the popular offering also includes an interview with Davis Martin and Matt Bowman from last September, and a feature from this spring on Hayden Birdsong, who throws a kick-change, and his teammate Landen Roupp, who does not. The pitch is thrown exclusively (at least to my knowledge) by supinators such as Martin, who explained that spiking his middle finger on a seam allows him to “kick the axis of the ball into that three o’clock axis [and] get that saucer-type spin to get the depth that a guy who could pronate a changeup would get to.”

Thinking about the pitch recently, a question came to mind: What would happen if a natural pronator tried to throw a kick-change?

In search of an answer, I queried three major league pitching coaches, as well as Tread Athletics’ Leif Strom, who in addition to having hands-on knowledge of the kick-change is credited with coining the term. Their responses varied. Moreover, they meandered a bit — but in a good way — as they offered insight into the science of throwing a baseball from a mound.

Here is what they had to say.

The following answers have been lightly edited for clarity.

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Desi Druschel, New York Mets

“There are a couple of ways to look at the kick-change. Most people interpret it as, ‘the spike kicks the axis,’ but I’m not necessarily convinced. Another thought is that [the middle finger] is just out of the way, and the ring finger kind of swipes below it. You’re kicking the axis, for sure, but I don’t know if it’s always kicking it how people might think. That would be on the one where there is more supination. Read the rest of this entry »

Tanner Houck has had a tough start to his 2024 season. Prior to going on the injured list in mid-May with an elbow strain, the 28-year-old Boston Red Sox right-hander logged an 8.04 ERA over nine mostly tumultuous outings. His track record shows that he is far better. Houck’s year-to-year consistency has been a bit on the uneven side, but he nonetheless possesses a 3.97 ERA and a 3.71 FIP since reaching the big leagues in 2020. Last season was his best. A mainstay in Boston’s rotation, he made a career-high 30 starts and put up 3.9 WAR and a 3.12 ERA.

His future role was in question when our 2019 Red Sox Top Prospects list was published in January of that year. As Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel explained at the time, some scouts preferred the 24th overall pick in the 2017 draft as a starter, while others saw him as a reliever. Our prospect analyst duo ranked the University of Missouri product fifth in the system and assigned him a 40+ FV.

What did Houck’s 2019 FanGraphs scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think about it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what Eric and Kiley wrote and asked Houck to respond to it.
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“Houck was a projection prep arm from Illinois whose price was just high enough to get him to Missouri.”

“I committed to Mizzou fairly early in the process,” explained Houck, who was born in St. Louis and attended high school in nearby Collinsville, Illinois. “I really wasn’t a big prospect. I was only throwing 84-87 [mph] at the time. So that was probably a fair judgement. I definitely grew up and got stronger. I filled out my frame a little bit. Read the rest of this entry »

Mikey Romero has hit a few speed bumps since the Boston Red Sox drafted him 24th overall in 2022 out of California’s Orange Lutheran High School. A back injury limited the 21-year-old multi-position infielder to just 34 games in 2023, and he then didn’t return to game action until last May. He also missed time in August after suffering a concussion.

When healthy, it’s been mostly smooth sailing for the former first-rounder. [Boston took Roman Anthony 16 picks later the same year]. Romero’s last-season ledger included 16 home runs and a 125 wRC+ over 362 plate appearances between High-A Greenville and Double-A Portland.

He’s off to a strong start in the current campaign. Back at the higher of those levels, Romero is swinging to the tune of a 134 wRC+ in 154 trips to the plate. Fully half of his 34 hits have gone for extra bases. The San Diego native’s smooth left-handed stroke has produced 10 doubles, a pair of triples, and five home runs.

As the season was getting underway, I asked the promising youngster how he’s grown as a hitter since joining the professional ranks. Read the rest of this entry »

Joe Ryan has developed into one of the better pitchers in the American League. So far this season, the 28-year-old Minnesota Twins right-hander has a 5-2 record to go with a 2.57 ERA, a 3.19 FIP, and a 29.8% strikeout rate over 63 innings. Moreover, he’s been rock solid since debuting with the AL Central club in September 2021. His career ledger includes a 3.76 ERA and a 3.77 FIP over 533 1/3 frames, with all but one of his 95 appearances coming as a starter. The lone exception was working five innings as a bulk reliever in the resumption of a suspended game earlier this month.

His prospect profile wasn’t particularly high. Drafted 210th overall by the Tampa Bay Rays out of California State Stanislaus in 2018, Ryan proceeded to pitch well in the minors, but he was largely overshadowed. When our 2020 Tampa Bay Top Prospects list was published in March of that year, Eric Longenhagen wrote that the Rays possessed “one of the, if not the, best farm systems in baseball.” He ranked Ryan 13th in the organization and assigned him a 45+ FV. The Rays subsequently sent Ryan to the Twins in their July 2021 trade for Nelson Cruz.

What did Ryan’s 2020 FanGraphs scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think about it all these years later? Wanting to find out I shared some of what our lead prospect analyst wrote and asked Ryan to respond to it. Read the rest of this entry »

Ryan O’Hearn has been the best hitter on an underachieving Baltimore Orioles team so far this season. Moreover, he’s been one of the best hitters in the game. The 31-year-old first baseman/outfielder boasts a 185 wRC+, a mark currently topped by only Aaron Judge, and Freddie Freeman. Over 180 plate appearances, O’Hearn has left the yard nine times while slashing .340/.428/.558.

He began to bash after leaving Kansas City, where he posted a .683 OPS over parts of five nondescript seasons with the Royals. He was designated for assignment and subsequently dealt to the Orioles in exchange for cash consideration in January 2023. Baltimore then dodged a bullet. The O’s also DFA’d him, only to see him go unclaimed, allowing them to assign him to their Triple-A roster. Called up to the majors two weeks into the 2023 campaign, O’Hearn proceeded to do what he hadn’t done with his old team: square up baseballs on a consistent basis.

Since the start of the 2023 season, the left-handed-hitting O’Hearn has the highest batting average (.286) and on-base percentage (.346), and the second-highest wRC+ (130) among Orioles who have come to the plate at least 250 times. Playing primarily against opposite-handed hurlers, O’Hearn has logged 1,042 plate appearances over that span.

How did he go from the waiver wire to laying waste to big league pitching? Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this month, an article titled “Executive’s View: How Have Analytics Impacted a General Manager’s Job?” was published here at FanGraphs. Featured were Ross Atkins, Brian Cashman, Jerry Dipoto, and John Mozeliak, with the foursome sharing their perspectives on this ever-evolving aspect of their shared position.

Shortly after the piece ran, two people suggested David Stearns as a followup interview subject. That’s understandable. Now in his second season as the president of baseball operations for the New York Mets, the 40-year-old Ivy League product has two decades of experience within the industry, almost all of it in front offices.

A summer intern with the Pittsburgh Pirates prior to graduating from Harvard University in 2007, Stearns subsequently worked in MLB’s central office, then served as co-director of baseball operations with Cleveland, became an assistant general manager with the Houston Astros, and, in 2015, was hired by the Milwaukee Brewers as general manager. His data-driven approach was a common thread throughout. Moreover, he has remained true to his analytic bent since assuming his current position following the 2023 season.

Stearns was at Fenway Park this past week when the Red Sox hosted the team whose front office he now leads, so I took the opportunity to get his perspective on the subject at hand. Here is our conversation, lightly edited for clarity.

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David Laurila: I’ll start with the question I asked Atkins, Cashman, Dipoto, and Mozeliak: How has the continued growth of analytics impacted the job?

David Stearns: “Over the span of my career, we’ve been inundated with more and more sources of information — information sources that are increasingly granular in nature, increasingly have to do with the processes of playing baseball, and not necessarily the results or outcomes of playing baseball. Those lead towards more and more complex algorithms and models that require greater numbers of analysts, and really smart, creative people to have in a front office. So, one of the greatest changes is just the size of the departments within baseball. The information has grown to such a enormous extent that we need more and more people to manage the information. That’s the first thing that comes to my mind. And then we need to make all that information actionable.” Read the rest of this entry »

Spencer Schwellenbach had just two big-league games under his belt when he was featured here at FanGraphs early last June. The most recent of them had come a few days earlier at Fenway Park, where he’d allowed six runs and failed to get out of the fifth inning. Two starts into his career, the Atlanta Braves right-hander was 0-2 with an 8.38 ERA.

Those initial speed bumps quickly became a thing of the past. Schwellenbach allowed three runs over his next two outings, and by season’s end he had made 21 appearances and logged a 3.35 ERA and a 3.29 FIP. Counting this years’s 10 starts, the 24-year-old Saginaw, Michigan native has a 3.41 ERA and a 3.41 FIP over 185 innings. Moreover, he has a 23.5% strikeout rate and just a 4.7% walk rate. Relentlessly attacking the zone with a six-pitch mix, Schwellenbach has firmly established himself as a cog in Atlanta’s rotation.

On the eve of his returning to the mound in Boston last Sunday, I asked the 2021 second-round pick out of the University of Nebraska what has changed in the 11-plus months since we first spoke.

“Honestly, when we talked last year I was just throwing the ball to the catcher,” claimed Schwellenbach, who was a shortstop in his first two collegiate seasons and then a shortstop/closer as a junior. “It was really only my second year as just a pitcher, so I was very young-minded with how I pitched. Now that I’ve got 30 or so starts, I have an idea of what I’m trying to do out there. Being around guys like Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and Chris Sale last year was obviously big, too. I learned a lot from them, as well as from [pitching coach] Rick Kranitz.”

Morton, who is now with the Baltimore Orioles, helped him improve the quality of his curveball. Their mid-season conversation was the genesis of a more efficient grip. Read the rest of this entry »