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E-Rod Heads to D-Backs For Many C-Notes

by
December 7, 2023
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

In the midst of a Winter Meetings that was fairly quiet as far as free agent signings go, the Arizona Diamondbacks and Eduardo Rodriguez came to an agreement on a four-year contract worth a guaranteed $80 million. Bouncing back from a problem-filled 2022 Detroit debut, Rodriguez was one of the reasons the Tigers maintained a position at the very edge of relevance in 2023. Through the end of May, E-Rod was a top 10 starting pitcher in the American League, posting a 2.13 ERA and 3.14 FIP over 11 starts; his 1.8 WAR ranked eighth in WAR. But his chances of sneaking into the Cy Young conversation were derailed by a finger injury that cost him a month of the season. While he got back into the rotation fairly quickly, he wasn’t quite the same in the second half, issuing more free passes and seeing his strikeout rate drop by about 20%.

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2024 ZiPS Projections: San Diego Padres

by
December 4, 2023
ZiPS Projections
2024 2023

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the San Diego Padres.

Batters

The Padres have an elite set of offensive talent in Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and the rest of the assorted cast. Then again, they need to be, because as the team is currently designed, the pitching is a massive sinkhole. Soto leads this group, and after an underwhelming Padres debut in 2022, he hit about as expected in 2023. Tatis Jr. turned out to be an excellent corner outfielder and stayed healthy, and while Machado had some ups and downs and will play some DH in 2024 due to his elbow injury, he’s unlikely to be a problem for the Friars.

The next tier of hitters is as good as the best players on some teams. Ha-Seong Kim made a great case for 2021 being his outlier season, not 2022. Xander Bogaerts still ended up with a season right about where reasonable expectations where, and Trent Grisham is at least average in center field, though he should be banned from bunting on his own volition. If the catcher pairing and Jake Cronenworth are the weakest parts of your lineup, you’re doing a pretty good job.

That being said, there are serious concerns on the horizon. Soto is a free agent at the end of the year, which is why he’s coming up a lot in trade talks. That free agency is quite short on offensive talent just increases the incentives for the Padres to trade him for pitching help and/or farm system restocking. A lot of the organization’s depth has been whittled away over recent years, so the team is susceptible to injuries, and while the farm system has bounced back a bit — it was pretty depleted from myriad trades — many of the best prospects aren’t likely to be options over the next few years. One exception is Jackson Merrill, though with Bogaerts and Machado signed to the end of time, it’s uncertain where he will break into the majors.

Pitchers

Here’s where there should be many furrowed brows. At one point a few years ago, the Padres were entering the season with seven or eight viable starting pitchers, but it’s hard to envision that being even close to the case this upcoming spring. Joe Musgrove is their best pitcher now, but that comes with a pretty significant “but” in the form of a shoulder injury that ended his season prematurely and kept him from participating in the team’s doomed last-gasp run to sneak into the playoffs. Yu Darvish, meanwhile, is showing signs of decline, which is unsurprising for a pitcher who will be 38 by the end of the next season.

It gets cloudier from here, to be kind. ZiPS projects only six Padres with an ERA+ above 100, and the two best of them, Blake Snell and Josh Hader, are no longer actually employed by the team. The rest of the rotation is a bevy of sixth starters, better suited to be Plan Bs and not the guys you actually want to start the season in the rotation. ZiPS is quite intrigued by Robby Snelling, but he’s realistically a year or so away, with Dylan Lesko a little farther.

It’s not hard to see why the Padres have been interested in trading Soto if it gets them pitching help. Unlike the vast majority of franchises in history, their collapsed cable deal likely means that there’s a lot of truth to the Padres being at their limits on how much they can invest in the team. With revenues uncertain and some ownership changes coming given the recent passing of Peter Seidler, it doesn’t strike me as likely that they’ll spike a $300 million payroll. And to sign the pitchers in free agency that they need, that’s probably what they would have to do with Soto on the roster.

ZiPS wants nothing to do with the bullpen. Enyel De Los Santos and Tom Cosgrove project as the best of the lot, but neither bring to the table what Hader did. The computer was always “in” on Robert Suarez, going back to the moment he was signed, but it’s a bit worried now, as an elbow injury and losing a third of your strikeout rate are inauspicious signs. Even if Suarez isn’t a problem, the rest of the bullpen looks to be, and it’s not just ZiPS being mean; Steamer is only slightly gentler on the Pads.

Right now, the Padres look like a high-80s win team with a decently high ceiling if they get some uncharacteristically good fortune in 2024. The future of this team remains complicated. Those answers will not be known when this article goes live.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Juan Soto L 25 LF 660 521 99 144 26 1 30 97 133 109 11 4
Fernando Tatis Jr. R 25 RF 624 555 102 149 32 2 36 101 60 141 26 4
Manny Machado R 31 3B 603 540 80 145 28 1 26 92 55 110 6 2
Xander Bogaerts R 31 SS 625 556 80 153 30 1 17 69 57 113 12 1
Ha-Seong Kim R 28 2B 548 480 62 118 23 2 13 57 55 106 23 5
Trent Grisham L 27 CF 537 459 68 100 25 2 17 58 66 140 13 3
Jake Cronenworth L 30 1B 564 497 71 124 29 5 14 64 50 100 5 1
Gary Sánchez R 31 C 393 346 43 73 15 0 19 53 38 111 1 1
Eguy Rosario R 24 3B 443 403 52 96 22 2 11 51 33 110 9 6
Jackson Merrill L 21 SS 493 461 63 116 20 3 12 55 24 82 8 3
Graham Pauley L 23 3B 537 489 72 119 24 3 14 67 40 116 10 4
Jakob Marsee L 23 CF 540 464 80 102 15 3 11 56 64 120 22 5
Mason McCoy R 29 SS 472 429 53 89 19 4 9 48 36 152 13 2
Matthew Batten R 29 SS 488 436 57 98 16 1 7 44 46 132 16 4
Luis Campusano R 25 C 339 311 39 80 14 1 10 44 22 62 0 1
Ripken Reyes B 27 2B 463 385 58 87 14 3 3 55 30 85 12 4
Brett Sullivan L 30 C 368 334 42 82 19 2 6 36 27 56 5 2
Preston Tucker 터커 L 33 LF 270 233 33 54 12 1 7 31 30 58 1 1
Jantzen Witte R 34 3B 404 370 40 83 16 1 9 43 27 114 4 3
Matt Carpenter L 38 1B 234 194 25 41 11 1 8 28 34 69 1 1
Rougned Odor L 30 2B 354 316 42 67 16 2 12 43 30 91 3 2
Rangel Ravelo R 32 1B 261 223 32 57 10 0 6 32 29 45 0 1
Luis Liberato L 28 CF 342 302 41 68 15 2 8 37 32 97 5 3
Austin Nola R 34 C 270 235 26 56 11 0 4 25 26 49 0 1
Nelson Cruz R 43 DH 398 356 41 88 13 1 14 55 33 105 2 1
José Iglesias R 34 SS 376 354 40 92 22 1 4 37 15 58 2 2
Ji Man Choi L 33 1B 315 269 33 60 15 0 11 40 41 92 0 1
Garrett Cooper R 33 1B 407 367 38 90 18 1 13 54 33 117 0 1
Ray-Patrick Didder R 29 SS 396 349 45 71 14 1 7 44 35 120 15 5
Connor Hollis R 29 SS 388 345 47 81 16 2 4 38 33 95 9 5
Brandon Valenzuela B 23 C 369 332 33 69 13 1 6 34 33 109 1 1
Taylor Kohlwey L 29 LF 501 443 50 105 20 2 6 49 48 107 8 3
Daniel Johnson L 28 CF 467 427 50 99 20 3 13 57 33 126 11 4
Tim Lopes R 30 2B 461 417 55 94 19 2 8 46 38 125 17 5
Ben Gamel L 32 LF 372 325 40 75 17 1 8 39 41 97 3 3
Homer Bush R 22 LF 196 173 24 43 7 0 2 21 13 35 10 1
Tyler Wade L 29 SS 398 352 55 80 14 1 4 33 35 98 25 7
Nik McClaughry R 24 SS 108 93 9 22 5 2 1 11 8 19 1 1
Max Schrock L 29 2B 201 186 22 48 9 1 4 22 12 36 2 1
Michael De La Cruz B 31 C 331 300 35 68 13 1 5 32 27 72 3 1
José Azocar R 28 CF 403 376 44 89 15 3 6 39 19 101 18 7
Nathan Martorella L 23 1B 562 501 65 115 26 1 15 61 53 125 2 2
Jurickson Profar B 31 LF 514 450 59 106 25 1 10 49 53 89 4 1
Marcos Castañon R 25 3B 531 484 55 105 26 0 15 63 37 153 0 1
Tirso Ornelas L 24 RF 529 480 53 112 26 2 8 53 42 123 4 2
Korry Howell R 25 CF 320 286 41 54 11 3 6 34 24 124 12 3
Brandon Dixon R 32 1B 327 298 36 67 12 2 13 44 21 117 5 1
Chandler Seagle R 28 C 252 231 22 42 10 0 2 20 11 90 2 1
Evan Mendoza R 28 SS 355 324 36 72 10 0 2 26 26 81 8 2
Kervin Pichardo R 22 SS 316 281 31 56 9 0 8 35 25 106 4 1
Cal Mitchell L 25 LF 427 392 41 91 18 1 10 53 26 115 5 2
Colton Bender R 25 C 162 140 18 26 4 0 2 13 16 55 1 1
Yorman Rodriguez R 26 DH 362 340 37 86 13 1 8 39 16 65 3 1
Tucupita Marcano L 24 SS 389 353 43 83 15 2 6 38 29 70 7 4
Juan Zabala R 24 C 247 222 24 47 9 0 4 22 16 72 5 2
Joshua Mears R 23 RF 296 265 30 43 10 1 12 39 23 149 6 3
Jarryd Dale R 23 2B 442 397 42 78 16 2 3 34 37 140 12 5
Cole Cummings L 26 LF 398 356 38 72 14 2 9 44 30 127 2 1
Ethan Salas L 18 C 305 281 32 57 10 1 8 33 20 103 2 2
Grant Little R 26 LF 215 192 20 40 8 0 0 17 16 52 5 3
Pedro Castellanos R 26 1B 396 373 38 86 15 1 7 42 14 93 1 1
Jorge Oña R 27 DH 197 181 19 33 9 0 5 22 11 84 1 1
Michael Cantu R 28 C 146 133 10 21 3 0 1 9 13 63 0 1
Jose Sanabria R 19 RF 176 160 17 32 5 1 1 13 13 58 2 2
Robert Perez Jr. R 24 RF 521 471 55 102 18 2 15 69 32 175 1 1
Juan Fernandez R 25 3B 418 383 36 87 15 1 5 39 26 79 5 2
Tyler Robertson R 24 LF 377 332 50 67 10 3 8 43 17 133 15 3
Griffin Doersching R 25 1B 431 382 46 74 15 0 14 49 40 161 0 1
Carlos Luis L 24 DH 390 365 35 82 16 1 5 34 20 103 0 1
Nick Vogt R 23 RF 324 298 32 57 12 1 6 32 18 122 8 3
Brantley Bell R 29 2B 219 204 20 39 9 1 1 16 12 69 5 3
Lucas Dunn R 25 RF 482 430 50 82 15 3 5 43 40 160 8 5
Justin Farmer R 25 LF 417 374 41 67 14 1 5 32 38 160 12 3

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA RC
Juan Soto 660 .276 .424 .503 162 .226 .298 -3 5.8 .397 115
Fernando Tatis Jr. 624 .268 .342 .528 142 .259 .299 9 5.5 .367 107
Manny Machado 603 .269 .335 .469 125 .200 .295 5 4.1 .342 87
Xander Bogaerts 625 .275 .346 .424 117 .149 .319 0 4.1 .335 84
Ha-Seong Kim 548 .246 .327 .383 101 .138 .291 11 3.5 .312 67
Trent Grisham 537 .218 .323 .392 102 .174 .275 7 2.9 .315 62
Jake Cronenworth 564 .249 .329 .412 109 .163 .287 3 1.7 .321 69
Gary Sánchez 393 .211 .300 .419 101 .208 .250 -3 1.5 .311 44
Eguy Rosario 443 .238 .300 .385 93 .146 .301 4 1.4 .298 51
Jackson Merrill 493 .252 .290 .386 90 .134 .283 0 1.4 .292 54
Graham Pauley 537 .243 .308 .391 97 .147 .292 -2 1.3 .305 62
Jakob Marsee 540 .220 .325 .336 89 .116 .273 -2 1.3 .298 57
Mason McCoy 472 .207 .270 .333 70 .126 .299 9 1.3 .265 42
Matthew Batten 488 .225 .302 .314 76 .089 .306 4 1.2 .277 46
Luis Campusano 339 .257 .313 .405 102 .148 .293 -4 1.1 .312 40
Ripken Reyes 463 .226 .333 .301 82 .075 .283 -2 0.8 .293 43
Brett Sullivan 368 .246 .302 .368 89 .123 .279 -3 0.8 .291 39
Preston Tucker 270 .232 .330 .382 102 .150 .280 2 0.8 .314 30
Jantzen Witte 404 .224 .280 .346 77 .122 .300 6 0.7 .275 38
Matt Carpenter 234 .211 .338 .402 109 .191 .282 1 0.7 .326 27
Rougned Odor 354 .212 .294 .389 92 .177 .258 -1 0.7 .298 38
Rangel Ravelo 261 .256 .349 .381 107 .126 .297 0 0.7 .324 30
Luis Liberato 342 .225 .298 .368 88 .142 .305 1 0.6 .291 35
Austin Nola 270 .238 .321 .336 87 .098 .286 -2 0.6 .294 26
Nelson Cruz 398 .247 .317 .407 104 .160 .312 0 0.6 .311 47
José Iglesias 376 .260 .298 .362 86 .102 .301 -3 0.6 .288 39
Ji Man Choi 315 .223 .327 .401 106 .178 .295 -1 0.5 .319 36
Garrett Cooper 407 .245 .314 .406 103 .161 .325 -1 0.5 .314 47
Ray-Patrick Didder 396 .203 .295 .309 72 .106 .288 -1 0.5 .274 37
Connor Hollis 388 .235 .311 .328 82 .093 .313 -3 0.5 .286 39
Brandon Valenzuela 369 .208 .285 .307 68 .099 .290 2 0.4 .266 30
Taylor Kohlwey 501 .237 .317 .332 85 .095 .300 3 0.4 .290 50
Daniel Johnson 467 .232 .291 .384 90 .152 .299 -6 0.4 .293 52
Tim Lopes 461 .225 .293 .338 79 .113 .303 -2 0.3 .279 47
Ben Gamel 372 .231 .321 .363 94 .132 .305 -1 0.3 .303 40
Homer Bush 196 .249 .321 .324 84 .075 .301 1 0.3 .291 20
Tyler Wade 398 .227 .304 .307 74 .080 .304 -4 0.3 .275 41
Nik McClaughry 108 .237 .321 .366 95 .129 .288 -1 0.3 .304 12
Max Schrock 201 .258 .308 .382 95 .124 .301 -3 0.3 .302 23
Michael De La Cruz 331 .227 .290 .327 75 .100 .283 -2 0.2 .274 29
José Azocar 403 .237 .278 .340 74 .104 .309 1 0.2 .270 42
Nathan Martorella 562 .230 .304 .375 92 .146 .277 0 0.2 .298 58
Jurickson Profar 514 .236 .322 .362 94 .127 .274 -5 0.1 .304 54
Marcos Castañon 531 .217 .281 .364 81 .147 .285 -3 0.1 .281 50
Tirso Ornelas 529 .233 .297 .346 82 .113 .298 4 0.1 .283 51
Korry Howell 320 .189 .270 .311 65 .122 .308 3 0.1 .260 28
Brandon Dixon 327 .225 .281 .409 93 .185 .321 -1 0.0 .297 36
Chandler Seagle 252 .182 .231 .251 37 .069 .288 8 0.0 .217 14
Evan Mendoza 355 .222 .280 .272 58 .049 .290 2 -0.1 .249 27
Kervin Pichardo 316 .199 .280 .317 69 .117 .287 -4 -0.2 .268 26
Cal Mitchell 427 .232 .286 .360 82 .128 .303 0 -0.2 .283 42
Colton Bender 162 .186 .277 .257 53 .071 .289 -1 -0.2 .247 11
Yorman Rodriguez 362 .253 .288 .368 85 .115 .292 0 -0.3 .285 37
Tucupita Marcano 389 .235 .295 .340 80 .105 .278 -9 -0.3 .281 39
Juan Zabala 247 .212 .270 .306 63 .095 .295 -4 -0.4 .257 20
Joshua Mears 296 .162 .247 .343 65 .181 .298 3 -0.4 .259 25
Jarryd Dale 442 .196 .270 .270 54 .073 .295 4 -0.5 .246 33
Cole Cummings 398 .202 .279 .329 72 .126 .286 1 -0.6 .270 33
Ethan Salas 305 .203 .259 .331 66 .128 .288 -6 -0.7 .259 25
Grant Little 215 .208 .285 .250 54 .042 .286 1 -0.7 .248 16
Pedro Castellanos 396 .231 .270 .332 70 .102 .289 3 -0.7 .264 34
Jorge Oña 197 .182 .249 .315 59 .133 .304 0 -0.8 .250 15
Michael Cantu 146 .158 .233 .203 26 .045 .290 -2 -0.9 .204 7
Jose Sanabria 176 .200 .267 .263 52 .063 .307 -2 -1.0 .241 12
Robert Perez Jr. 521 .217 .284 .359 81 .142 .310 -7 -1.1 .283 49
Juan Fernandez 418 .227 .288 .311 70 .084 .274 -10 -1.2 .268 36
Tyler Robertson 377 .202 .262 .322 65 .120 .309 -4 -1.2 .258 32
Griffin Doersching 431 .194 .278 .343 75 .149 .290 -4 -1.2 .274 37
Carlos Luis 390 .225 .267 .315 65 .090 .300 0 -1.3 .256 31
Nick Vogt 324 .191 .246 .299 54 .107 .300 -1 -1.4 .241 25
Brantley Bell 219 .191 .242 .260 43 .069 .284 -5 -1.4 .223 15
Lucas Dunn 482 .191 .272 .274 56 .084 .291 1 -1.6 .248 36
Justin Farmer 417 .179 .259 .262 49 .083 .297 1 -1.6 .238 29

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Juan Soto Rusty Staub Mel Ott Carl Yastrzemski
Fernando Tatis Jr. Cesar Cedeno Frank Robinson Dave Winfield
Manny Machado Mike Lowell Aramis Ramirez Ken Keltner
Xander Bogaerts Dave Bancroft Edgar Renteria Roberto Alomar
Ha-Seong Kim Eddie Moore Dan Rohn Bump Wills
Trent Grisham Rick Miller Gary Geiger Adolfo Phillips
Jake Cronenworth Bob Burda Dustin Ackley Willie Upshaw
Gary Sánchez Gus Triandos Lloyd McClendon Jerry Keller
Eguy Rosario Joel Youngblood Nate Oliver Frank Bolling
Jackson Merrill Daniel Castro Cesar Bernhardt Bill Eveline
Graham Pauley Jerry Royster Howard Freigau Luis Valbuena
Jakob Marsee Greg Jemison James Bottoms Roy Hartless
Mason McCoy Chris Basak Pedro Florimón Scott Pratt
Matthew Batten Zach Penprase Eddy Alvarez Shane Halter
Luis Campusano Taylor Davis Joe Azcue Milt May
Ripken Reyes Jon Sbrocco John Finn Callix Crabbe
Brett Sullivan Tom Lampkin Birdie Tebbetts Rick Sweet
Preston Tucker Phil Stephenson Dave Sax Chris Coghlan
Jantzen Witte Steve Springer Tony Cuccinello Pep Young
Matt Carpenter Carlos Pena Duke Snider Mickey Tettleton
Rougned Odor Ray Mack Ryan Flaherty Chuck Goggin
Rangel Ravelo Scott Hatteberg Danny Heep Mark Sweeney
Luis Liberato Skye Bolt Brian Goodwin Joe Wallis
Austin Nola Alberto Castillo Bob Oldis Michael LaValliere
Nelson Cruz Joe Altobelli Todd Frazier Orlando Cepeda
José Iglesias Alcides Escobar Jack Wilson Bill Russell
Ji Man Choi Tony Solaita Brian Daubach Pete Ward
Garrett Cooper Chris Richard Cleon Jones Geoff Jenkins
Ray-Patrick Didder Anthony Granato Joe Koppe Bobby Meacham
Connor Hollis Jon Berti Everth Cabrera Zach Penprase
Brandon Valenzuela Chris Cannizzaro Lance Rice Scott Sulprizio
Taylor Kohlwey Dustin Delucchi Nate Orf Johnny Watwood
Daniel Johnson Jason Repko Scott Cousins Fred Valentine
Tim Lopes Frank Verdi Shane Halter Tony Piet
Ben Gamel Mike Tauchman Brian Goodwin Ryan Spilborghs
Homer Bush Jason Conti Ender Chavez Joe Trippy
Tyler Wade Willie Harris Andrew Romine Wayne Tolleson
Nik McClaughry Ashley Ponce Aaron Olivas Gabriel Bracamonte
Max Schrock Corban Joseph John Ryan Ehire Adrianza
Michael De La Cruz Buck Rodgers Al Spohrer Gerald Laird
José Azocar Pookie Bernstine Dairon Blanco Manny Martinez마르티네스
Nathan Martorella Charlie Leonard Richard Green Daniel Paolini
Jurickson Profar Andre David Kenny Baker Jason Heyward
Marcos Castañon Mike Nipper Mike Ross Ryan Gripp
Tirso Ornelas Donald Davis Conor Jackson Mike Lockwood
Korry Howell Josh Flores Steve Martin Tanner English
Brandon Dixon Tony Thomas Ivan Murrell Tito Landrum
Chandler Seagle Josh Lex Keith Castillo Reagan Buckley
Evan Mendoza Tommy Watkins Mike Torres Niuman Romero
Kervin Pichardo Harry Land Brian Wilson Omar Bramasco
Cal Mitchell Dan Stryffeler Les Filkins William Dennis
Colton Bender Mike Reeves Josh Emmerick Jason Jacobs
Yorman Rodriguez Dean Decillis Yariel Gonzalez Lance Niekro
Tucupita Marcano Tom Krause Mitch Simons Kevin Stocker
Juan Zabala Carlos Mota German Melendez Charles Green
Joshua Mears Gorman Thomas Corey Pointer Eli Ben
Jarryd Dale Buddy Biancalana Mike Brocki Trent Durrington
Cole Cummings Connor Panas Greg Baker Gary Purcell
Ethan Salas Ralph DiMeglio Ron Henry Larry Baughman
Grant Little Robert Weigle Jon Schwind Caleb Curry
Pedro Castellanos Tom Brassil Ray Navarrete Marc Tepper
Jorge Oña Doug Thennis Mark Tracy Lanny Williams
Michael Cantu Jeff Waldron J.C. Boscan John Beuerlein
Jose Sanabria Brahiam Maldonado Ruben Mora Virgil Tieken
Robert Perez Jr. Thomas Hallums Jose Barrios George Kazmarek
Juan Fernandez Osvaldo Martínez Rob Belloir Pedro Lopez
Tyler Robertson Michael Kirkpatrick Luigi Rodriguez Juan Hernaiz
Griffin Doersching Joe Citari Justin Drizos Viosergy Rosa
Carlos Luis Ivy Griffin Jaime Ortiz Clay King
Nick Vogt Preston Mattingly Mel Pettigrew Larue Baber
Brantley Bell Tony Torres Donaldo Mendez Larry Burright
Lucas Dunn Warren Arrington Mark Young Tony Russell
Justin Farmer Shawn Payne Darrick Duke Jim Essian

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Juan Soto .302 .459 .560 183 7.5 .253 .397 .453 143 4.4
Fernando Tatis Jr. .295 .367 .593 167 7.4 .244 .313 .467 120 3.8
Manny Machado .295 .362 .523 147 5.7 .243 .307 .422 106 2.6
Xander Bogaerts .300 .371 .469 135 5.5 .249 .318 .382 99 2.6
Ha-Seong Kim .272 .353 .428 119 4.9 .221 .300 .337 84 2.2
Trent Grisham .240 .346 .445 121 4.1 .194 .297 .346 85 1.6
Jake Cronenworth .273 .351 .460 129 3.0 .224 .304 .365 90 0.2
Gary Sánchez .236 .328 .485 125 2.6 .183 .273 .359 80 0.5
Eguy Rosario .263 .326 .433 113 2.6 .216 .277 .342 76 0.5
Jackson Merrill .279 .315 .434 110 2.7 .228 .267 .346 73 0.3
Graham Pauley .267 .330 .445 114 2.5 .220 .283 .354 79 0.2
Jakob Marsee .242 .350 .381 107 2.5 .195 .300 .299 72 0.2
Mason McCoy .235 .298 .385 92 2.6 .182 .244 .293 54 0.3
Matthew Batten .254 .328 .359 91 2.3 .200 .275 .274 56 0.0
Luis Campusano .286 .341 .461 126 2.1 .232 .290 .357 85 0.5
Ripken Reyes .248 .356 .334 97 1.6 .201 .309 .267 66 -0.1
Brett Sullivan .276 .333 .418 109 1.8 .217 .273 .323 67 -0.2
Preston Tucker .257 .358 .433 123 1.4 .205 .303 .329 79 0.0
Jantzen Witte .254 .308 .390 96 1.7 .200 .257 .302 59 -0.1
Matt Carpenter .237 .372 .463 130 1.4 .185 .307 .339 84 0.0
Rougned Odor .239 .318 .443 112 1.6 .185 .268 .338 72 -0.1
Rangel Ravelo .285 .375 .428 126 1.3 .226 .319 .335 89 0.0
Luis Liberato .248 .325 .412 107 1.4 .199 .267 .324 68 -0.2
Austin Nola .269 .351 .379 106 1.3 .208 .295 .290 67 0.0
Nelson Cruz .273 .345 .459 123 1.6 .219 .289 .359 85 -0.4
José Iglesias .287 .323 .395 102 1.3 .233 .272 .319 67 -0.3
Ji Man Choi .245 .352 .451 125 1.2 .197 .302 .352 86 -0.2
Garrett Cooper .272 .339 .455 120 1.4 .218 .285 .353 82 -0.5
Ray-Patrick Didder .230 .326 .363 93 1.6 .178 .270 .269 55 -0.3
Connor Hollis .263 .336 .368 100 1.3 .206 .282 .285 63 -0.5
Brandon Valenzuela .240 .312 .361 91 1.5 .180 .255 .264 50 -0.4
Taylor Kohlwey .264 .343 .369 101 1.4 .215 .295 .293 68 -0.7
Daniel Johnson .257 .315 .437 110 1.5 .206 .261 .337 70 -0.9
Tim Lopes .248 .322 .380 97 1.4 .197 .266 .294 60 -0.9
Ben Gamel .260 .348 .412 113 1.2 .205 .291 .312 73 -0.7
Homer Bush .277 .349 .358 100 0.7 .221 .296 .289 69 -0.2
Tyler Wade .255 .329 .348 91 1.2 .204 .281 .269 57 -0.7
Nik McClaughry .274 .355 .431 121 0.6 .202 .286 .309 69 -0.1
Max Schrock .288 .337 .434 116 0.8 .227 .276 .337 73 -0.3
Michael De La Cruz .258 .327 .375 96 1.1 .200 .262 .279 55 -0.7
José Azocar .261 .301 .384 93 1.1 .211 .250 .298 57 -0.8
Nathan Martorella .260 .331 .421 113 1.7 .204 .278 .325 73 -1.2
Jurickson Profar .259 .350 .408 114 1.4 .214 .299 .321 77 -1.0
Marcos Castañon .243 .306 .409 98 1.2 .194 .256 .318 63 -1.1
Tirso Ornelas .262 .325 .389 102 1.4 .211 .275 .308 68 -0.9
Korry Howell .219 .300 .363 86 1.0 .160 .245 .269 48 -0.7
Brandon Dixon .255 .306 .466 114 0.8 .199 .253 .353 73 -0.8
Chandler Seagle .212 .262 .294 57 0.6 .154 .202 .215 18 -0.7
Evan Mendoza .244 .306 .299 72 0.7 .196 .258 .240 45 -0.7
Kervin Pichardo .230 .313 .386 97 0.9 .171 .251 .271 50 -0.9
Cal Mitchell .254 .308 .405 99 0.7 .207 .259 .319 64 -1.2
Colton Bender .213 .309 .307 75 0.2 .156 .246 .218 34 -0.7
Yorman Rodriguez .275 .311 .415 103 0.6 .228 .263 .326 67 -1.1
Tucupita Marcano .263 .323 .382 99 0.7 .212 .271 .300 63 -1.1
Juan Zabala .243 .301 .362 86 0.3 .181 .243 .267 46 -1.0
Joshua Mears .191 .276 .411 89 0.4 .130 .217 .283 41 -1.4
Jarryd Dale .220 .293 .310 70 0.4 .167 .245 .230 37 -1.5
Cole Cummings .226 .304 .376 92 0.4 .180 .253 .283 56 -1.4
Ethan Salas .234 .291 .390 90 0.3 .175 .231 .275 44 -1.5
Grant Little .236 .312 .282 69 -0.3 .184 .259 .218 38 -1.2
Pedro Castellanos .258 .296 .387 92 0.4 .205 .245 .295 53 -1.7
Jorge Oña .207 .271 .363 77 -0.3 .158 .223 .265 37 -1.3
Michael Cantu .190 .273 .243 47 -0.5 .131 .199 .167 6 -1.3
Jose Sanabria .227 .296 .301 70 -0.5 .174 .240 .226 35 -1.3
Robert Perez Jr. .241 .306 .404 99 0.1 .192 .261 .315 63 -2.2
Juan Fernandez .255 .313 .353 90 -0.1 .204 .264 .276 54 -2.0
Tyler Robertson .225 .286 .369 83 -0.4 .176 .238 .279 48 -2.0
Griffin Doersching .221 .304 .391 93 -0.2 .168 .252 .298 56 -2.2
Carlos Luis .247 .292 .352 82 -0.5 .200 .242 .278 48 -2.2
Nick Vogt .220 .275 .339 73 -0.6 .168 .222 .260 38 -2.1
Brantley Bell .218 .268 .299 61 -0.9 .167 .217 .224 26 -1.9
Lucas Dunn .217 .299 .313 73 -0.6 .164 .249 .237 39 -2.7
Justin Farmer .207 .286 .299 67 -0.7 .155 .233 .222 32 -2.6

Batters – Projected Splits
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
Juan Soto .262 .396 .451 .283 .437 .527
Fernando Tatis Jr. .275 .360 .534 .265 .333 .525
Manny Machado .272 .346 .462 .267 .330 .471
Xander Bogaerts .281 .357 .431 .273 .341 .422
Ha-Seong Kim .257 .345 .411 .239 .317 .367
Trent Grisham .221 .319 .385 .217 .324 .395
Jake Cronenworth .242 .321 .403 .253 .332 .417
Gary Sánchez .211 .304 .422 .211 .299 .418
Eguy Rosario .248 .317 .406 .229 .283 .363
Jackson Merrill .245 .283 .364 .255 .293 .396
Graham Pauley .232 .298 .377 .248 .312 .396
Jakob Marsee .209 .315 .326 .224 .329 .340
Mason McCoy .209 .279 .333 .206 .262 .333
Matthew Batten .241 .324 .340 .212 .284 .294
Luis Campusano .265 .327 .434 .251 .302 .383
Ripken Reyes .217 .329 .290 .231 .334 .308
Brett Sullivan .229 .285 .344 .256 .313 .384
Preston Tucker .226 .329 .371 .234 .330 .386
Jantzen Witte .229 .291 .363 .221 .273 .333
Matt Carpenter .208 .317 .377 .213 .345 .411
Rougned Odor .209 .301 .374 .213 .291 .396
Rangel Ravelo .261 .365 .375 .252 .338 .385
Luis Liberato .216 .287 .353 .231 .305 .376
Austin Nola .244 .330 .367 .234 .315 .317
Nelson Cruz .259 .336 .407 .242 .308 .407
José Iglesias .264 .299 .355 .258 .297 .365
Ji Man Choi .203 .304 .356 .229 .333 .414
Garrett Cooper .252 .321 .423 .242 .311 .398
Ray-Patrick Didder .211 .302 .322 .198 .290 .299
Connor Hollis .245 .324 .351 .227 .301 .309
Brandon Valenzuela .209 .290 .288 .207 .280 .321
Taylor Kohlwey .231 .311 .325 .240 .321 .336
Daniel Johnson .220 .281 .374 .237 .295 .388
Tim Lopes .229 .302 .352 .223 .286 .328
Ben Gamel .217 .309 .337 .236 .325 .372
Homer Bush .250 .325 .333 .248 .319 .317
Tyler Wade .219 .292 .281 .230 .308 .316
Nik McClaughry .237 .326 .342 .236 .317 .382
Max Schrock .245 .298 .340 .263 .313 .398
Michael De La Cruz .220 .282 .320 .230 .294 .330
José Azocar .237 .281 .358 .236 .274 .325
Nathan Martorella .226 .301 .365 .231 .306 .379
Jurickson Profar .235 .327 .360 .236 .319 .363
Marcos Castañon .225 .300 .393 .212 .267 .345
Tirso Ornelas .220 .282 .314 .240 .305 .361
Korry Howell .194 .275 .339 .185 .265 .290
Brandon Dixon .232 .293 .429 .220 .275 .398
Chandler Seagle .184 .238 .255 .180 .225 .248
Evan Mendoza .231 .299 .288 .213 .260 .256
Kervin Pichardo .202 .289 .316 .198 .274 .317
Cal Mitchell .224 .276 .336 .236 .292 .372
Colton Bender .193 .303 .281 .181 .258 .241
Yorman Rodriguez .260 .303 .390 .247 .276 .349
Tucupita Marcano .226 .286 .330 .239 .300 .345
Juan Zabala .222 .293 .333 .205 .254 .288
Joshua Mears .164 .254 .353 .161 .241 .336
Jarryd Dale .197 .279 .275 .196 .260 .263
Cole Cummings .193 .273 .325 .207 .281 .331
Ethan Salas .195 .250 .312 .206 .262 .338
Grant Little .215 .295 .253 .204 .278 .248
Pedro Castellanos .238 .276 .350 .225 .265 .319
Jorge Oña .192 .267 .321 .175 .234 .311
Michael Cantu .158 .238 .175 .158 .229 .224
Jose Sanabria .197 .274 .258 .202 .262 .266
Robert Perez Jr. .224 .291 .370 .211 .279 .351
Juan Fernandez .228 .295 .316 .227 .283 .307
Tyler Robertson .208 .265 .328 .198 .260 .319
Griffin Doersching .192 .287 .336 .195 .273 .347
Carlos Luis .212 .260 .280 .231 .270 .332
Nick Vogt .191 .250 .287 .191 .244 .306
Brantley Bell .198 .253 .272 .187 .235 .252
Lucas Dunn .197 .284 .292 .187 .264 .262
Justin Farmer .185 .275 .293 .175 .247 .240

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Blake Snell L 31 13 8 3.37 29 29 160.3 125 60 18 79 204
Joe Musgrove R 31 10 5 3.38 24 24 141.3 127 53 16 34 133
Yu Darvish R 37 10 9 3.96 24 24 145.3 128 64 19 38 140
Seth Lugo R 34 7 5 4.08 29 20 119.0 115 54 18 36 108
Michael Wacha R 32 7 7 4.15 23 22 119.3 113 55 19 36 106
Josh Hader L 30 4 2 3.09 59 0 55.3 37 19 7 23 80
Matt Waldron R 27 7 6 4.49 24 20 116.3 116 58 17 35 96
Adam Mazur R 23 5 4 4.41 22 17 87.7 86 43 12 33 74
Robby Snelling L 20 7 7 4.58 22 22 98.3 95 50 13 40 77
Pedro Avila R 27 4 5 4.53 30 18 95.3 89 48 12 45 86
Glenn Otto R 28 5 6 4.62 22 18 87.7 79 45 12 39 87
Jairo Iriarte R 22 4 4 4.59 25 19 86.3 76 44 12 43 89
Enyel De Los Santos R 28 4 3 3.94 61 2 64.0 54 28 8 22 63
Ryan Bergert R 24 5 5 4.68 22 20 92.3 90 48 13 40 75
Jose Espada R 27 2 2 4.48 30 8 66.3 60 33 10 35 70
Jared Kollar R 25 4 4 4.78 18 16 75.3 78 40 11 26 50
Efrain Contreras R 24 5 6 4.82 28 16 80.3 78 43 12 37 74
Tom Cosgrove L 28 2 2 4.02 56 1 53.7 45 24 7 24 57
Adrian Morejon L 25 2 2 4.24 30 5 40.3 38 19 6 15 39
Jay Groome L 25 6 7 4.95 27 26 127.3 120 70 16 71 110
Alek Jacob R 26 2 1 4.15 31 1 43.3 39 20 6 15 43
Drew Carlton R 28 3 4 4.22 36 1 49.0 46 23 7 17 44
Steven Wilson R 29 2 2 4.09 48 0 50.7 41 23 7 24 56
Rich Hill L 44 7 9 4.96 26 23 119.7 121 66 22 41 98
Reiss Knehr R 27 3 4 4.85 26 10 68.7 64 37 9 34 61
Moises Lugo R 25 3 4 4.50 37 4 60.0 52 30 8 34 66
Ray Kerr L 29 3 4 4.31 49 1 54.3 48 26 8 29 64
Daniel Camarena L 31 3 5 5.01 21 14 64.7 74 36 10 18 39
Gabe Mosser R 28 3 5 5.06 15 11 53.3 59 30 9 18 36
Logan Gillaspie R 27 4 3 4.42 41 2 53.0 54 26 7 18 44
Anderson Espinoza R 26 6 7 5.11 24 23 105.7 103 60 15 56 88
Robert Suarez R 33 3 4 4.43 40 1 40.7 34 20 6 18 41
Jeremiah Estrada R 25 1 2 4.29 36 0 42.0 35 20 6 24 51
Edwuin Bencomo R 25 3 4 4.86 28 5 63.0 67 34 9 17 39
Aaron Leasher L 28 3 5 5.09 25 10 63.7 65 36 9 36 50
Aaron Brooks 브룩스 R 34 3 4 4.88 29 6 59.0 63 32 9 19 42
Bobby Milacki R 27 5 5 4.77 28 4 66.0 69 35 10 24 48
Lake Bachar R 29 3 4 4.80 32 4 60.0 61 32 9 27 52
Nick Hernandez R 29 3 3 4.50 43 0 54.0 47 27 7 25 54
Duncan Snider R 26 2 2 5.44 12 10 43.0 45 26 6 25 29
Nolan Watson R 27 4 5 5.20 24 18 98.7 107 57 14 44 59
Jason Blanchard L 27 2 1 4.70 30 1 46.0 45 24 7 23 44
Luis García R 37 2 3 4.62 50 0 48.7 48 25 7 22 46
Gabe Morales L 25 2 2 5.29 20 5 49.3 44 29 7 40 53
Brian Gonzalez L 28 1 2 5.46 23 2 31.3 30 19 5 20 29
Angel Sánchez R 34 1 1 5.36 21 6 43.7 45 26 7 23 35
Nick Duron R 28 3 4 5.01 32 0 32.3 30 18 5 23 33
Jose Quezada R 28 1 2 5.14 23 0 28.0 27 16 4 15 24
Sean Poppen R 30 2 3 4.85 41 2 55.7 58 30 8 23 44
Mason Fox R 27 2 3 4.95 25 0 36.3 34 20 5 22 36
Seth Mayberry R 24 3 4 4.81 32 0 43.0 40 23 6 24 43
Tim Hill L 34 2 3 5.10 47 0 42.3 45 24 6 13 27
Kevin Kopps R 27 3 3 4.82 41 1 61.7 59 33 8 32 55
Raul Brito R 27 3 4 4.93 26 0 49.3 47 27 7 27 46
James Bourque R 30 1 2 6.08 19 0 23.7 22 16 4 21 27
Domingo Tapia R 32 2 3 5.31 39 0 42.3 41 25 6 27 36
Jake Sanchez R 34 3 3 5.03 37 0 48.3 49 27 8 25 42
Michel Baez R 28 2 3 5.40 32 1 40.0 40 24 6 23 31
Henry Henry R 25 2 4 5.40 32 4 55.0 57 33 8 35 39
Eric Hanhold R 30 2 3 5.25 42 0 48.0 47 28 7 29 42
Justin Lopez R 24 1 3 5.59 33 0 38.7 38 24 6 25 30
Sean Reynolds R 26 2 2 5.34 47 0 55.7 52 33 8 38 51

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Blake Snell 160.3 11.5 4.4 1.0 11.5% 29.7% .285 120 3.70 84 3.2
Joe Musgrove 141.3 8.5 2.2 1.0 5.9% 23.0% .283 119 3.82 84 2.8
Yu Darvish 145.3 8.7 2.4 1.2 6.4% 23.5% .276 102 4.00 98 1.9
Seth Lugo 119.0 8.2 2.7 1.4 7.2% 21.5% .287 99 4.39 101 1.3
Michael Wacha 119.3 8.0 2.7 1.4 7.2% 21.1% .279 97 4.53 103 1.3
Josh Hader 55.3 13.0 3.7 1.1 10.2% 35.4% .265 130 3.42 77 1.0
Matt Waldron 116.3 7.4 2.7 1.3 7.1% 19.4% .289 90 4.54 111 0.8
Adam Mazur 87.7 7.6 3.4 1.2 8.7% 19.6% .288 91 4.48 110 0.6
Robby Snelling 98.3 7.0 3.7 1.2 9.4% 18.2% .280 88 4.66 114 0.6
Pedro Avila 95.3 8.1 4.2 1.1 10.7% 20.5% .285 89 4.76 112 0.6
Glenn Otto 87.7 8.9 4.0 1.2 10.3% 23.0% .283 87 4.59 115 0.5
Jairo Iriarte 86.3 9.3 4.5 1.3 11.4% 23.7% .281 88 4.84 114 0.4
Enyel De Los Santos 64.0 8.9 3.1 1.1 8.2% 23.6% .269 102 4.08 98 0.4
Ryan Bergert 92.3 7.3 3.9 1.3 9.9% 18.6% .283 86 4.83 116 0.4
Jose Espada 66.3 9.5 4.7 1.4 12.0% 24.0% .286 90 4.78 111 0.3
Jared Kollar 75.3 6.0 3.1 1.3 8.0% 15.3% .283 84 4.98 119 0.2
Efrain Contreras 80.3 8.3 4.1 1.3 10.4% 20.8% .291 84 4.92 120 0.2
Tom Cosgrove 53.7 9.6 4.0 1.2 10.5% 24.9% .275 100 4.39 100 0.2
Adrian Morejon 40.3 8.7 3.3 1.3 8.7% 22.5% .288 95 4.52 105 0.2
Jay Groome 127.3 7.8 5.0 1.1 12.4% 19.3% .283 81 5.00 123 0.2
Alek Jacob 43.3 8.9 3.1 1.2 8.2% 23.6% .282 97 4.46 103 0.2
Drew Carlton 49.0 8.1 3.1 1.3 8.2% 21.2% .283 95 4.42 105 0.1
Steven Wilson 50.7 9.9 4.3 1.2 11.1% 25.9% .268 99 4.44 101 0.1
Rich Hill 119.7 7.4 3.1 1.7 8.0% 19.1% .282 81 5.24 123 0.1
Reiss Knehr 68.7 8.0 4.5 1.2 11.2% 20.1% .282 83 4.89 120 0.1
Moises Lugo 60.0 9.9 5.1 1.2 12.7% 24.7% .286 90 4.69 112 0.1
Ray Kerr 54.3 10.6 4.8 1.3 12.0% 26.6% .294 94 4.58 107 0.0
Daniel Camarena 64.7 5.4 2.5 1.4 6.3% 13.7% .299 80 5.03 124 0.0
Gabe Mosser 53.3 6.1 3.0 1.5 7.6% 15.3% .294 80 5.22 126 0.0
Logan Gillaspie 53.0 7.5 3.1 1.2 7.9% 19.2% .297 91 4.50 110 0.0
Anderson Espinoza 105.7 7.5 4.8 1.3 11.8% 18.5% .285 79 5.31 127 0.0
Robert Suarez 40.7 9.1 4.0 1.3 10.5% 23.8% .264 91 4.71 110 0.0
Jeremiah Estrada 42.0 10.9 5.1 1.3 12.9% 27.4% .287 94 4.54 106 -0.1
Edwuin Bencomo 63.0 5.6 2.4 1.3 6.2% 14.3% .286 83 4.92 121 -0.1
Aaron Leasher 63.7 7.1 5.1 1.3 12.4% 17.2% .292 79 5.41 126 -0.1
Aaron Brooks 59.0 6.4 2.9 1.4 7.5% 16.5% .293 83 4.93 121 -0.1
Bobby Milacki 66.0 6.5 3.3 1.4 8.3% 16.6% .289 84 5.04 118 -0.1
Lake Bachar 60.0 7.8 4.1 1.4 10.0% 19.3% .295 84 4.97 119 -0.1
Nick Hernandez 54.0 9.0 4.2 1.2 10.8% 23.4% .278 90 4.50 112 -0.2
Duncan Snider 43.0 6.1 5.2 1.3 12.6% 14.6% .287 74 5.67 135 -0.2
Nolan Watson 98.7 5.4 4.0 1.3 10.0% 13.3% .289 77 5.52 129 -0.2
Jason Blanchard 46.0 8.6 4.5 1.4 11.2% 21.5% .295 86 4.95 117 -0.3
Luis García 48.7 8.5 4.1 1.3 10.1% 21.1% .297 87 4.84 115 -0.3
Gabe Morales 49.3 9.7 7.3 1.3 17.0% 22.6% .287 76 5.51 131 -0.3
Brian Gonzalez 31.3 8.3 5.7 1.4 13.9% 20.1% .284 74 5.68 135 -0.3
Angel Sánchez 43.7 7.2 4.7 1.4 11.4% 17.4% .290 75 5.52 133 -0.3
Nick Duron 32.3 9.2 6.4 1.4 15.2% 21.9% .287 80 5.45 124 -0.3
Jose Quezada 28.0 7.7 4.8 1.3 11.9% 19.0% .284 78 5.33 128 -0.3
Sean Poppen 55.7 7.1 3.7 1.3 9.3% 17.8% .296 83 5.05 120 -0.4
Mason Fox 36.3 8.9 5.4 1.2 13.3% 21.8% .290 81 4.96 123 -0.4
Seth Mayberry 43.0 9.0 5.0 1.3 12.4% 22.3% .291 84 5.02 120 -0.4
Tim Hill 42.3 5.7 2.8 1.3 7.1% 14.8% .287 79 5.03 127 -0.4
Kevin Kopps 61.7 8.0 4.7 1.2 11.4% 19.6% .288 84 5.01 120 -0.4
Raul Brito 49.3 8.4 4.9 1.3 12.0% 20.4% .288 82 5.18 122 -0.5
James Bourque 23.7 10.3 8.0 1.5 17.9% 23.1% .295 66 6.09 151 -0.5
Domingo Tapia 42.3 7.7 5.7 1.3 13.8% 18.5% .285 76 5.45 132 -0.5
Jake Sanchez 48.3 7.8 4.7 1.5 11.6% 19.5% .293 80 5.34 125 -0.5
Michel Baez 40.0 7.0 5.2 1.4 12.4% 16.7% .283 75 5.83 134 -0.6
Henry Henry 55.0 6.4 5.7 1.3 13.6% 15.1% .287 75 5.80 134 -0.6
Eric Hanhold 48.0 7.9 5.4 1.3 12.9% 18.8% .288 77 5.40 130 -0.6
Justin Lopez 38.7 7.0 5.8 1.4 14.1% 16.9% .278 72 5.97 139 -0.7
Sean Reynolds 55.7 8.2 6.1 1.3 14.8% 19.8% .282 75 5.55 132 -0.8

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
Blake Snell Bob Veale Mark Langston Al Leiter
Joe Musgrove Doug Drabek Roy Oswalt Joaquin Andujar
Yu Darvish Gaylord Perry Jim Bunning Early Wynn
Seth Lugo Steve Parris Rolando Arrojo Roy Oswalt
Michael Wacha Merrill Kelly 켈리 Danny Darwin Marty Pattin
Josh Hader Jesse Orosco Andrew Miller Al Holland
Matt Waldron Daniel Mengden Terry Doyle Jason Berken
Adam Mazur Ronald Bloodworth Tim Sommer Sam Marsonek
Robby Snelling Chuck Ross Kenny Esposito Jesse Hudson
Pedro Avila Tyler Thornburg Joe Sparma Thomas Arruda
Glenn Otto Bennie Daniels Pete Broberg Roberto Rodriguez
Jairo Iriarte Chester Gunter Paul Cacciatore Tom Griffin
Enyel De Los Santos Juan Carlos Oviedo Chris Devenski Jim Ray
Ryan Bergert Ken Cloude Rick Siebert Steve Monson
Jose Espada Scott Cassidy Brian Reith Rocky Cherry
Jared Kollar Brooks Hall Duke von Schamann Hiram Burgos
Efrain Contreras Alex Koronis Charles Seymour Carl Winton
Tom Cosgrove Robby Scott Gary Wayne Craig Breslow
Adrian Morejon Brian Currie Reese Lambert Hamilton Bennett
Jay Groome Shawn Morimando Henry Owens Brian O’Connor
Alek Jacob Matt Whiteside Jonathan Aro Scott Winchester
Drew Carlton Mickey Sinks Jay Aldrich Ryan Doolittle
Steven Wilson Steve Geltz Dave Tobik Rob Tejeda
Rich Hill Buddy Black Jamie Moyer Randy Wolf
Reiss Knehr Jackie Brown Jack Hamilton John Penn
Moises Lugo Jesus Colome Carlos Contreras Mike Roesler
Ray Kerr Juan Perez Tim Mayza Charlie Manning
Daniel Camarena Adam Wilk 아담 Logan Darnell Nick Greenwood
Gabe Mosser Karl Gelinas Pat Murphy Sherman Jones
Logan Gillaspie Ricky Rojas Steve Lankard Aaron Cotter
Anderson Espinoza Aaron Blair Daniel Corcino Dave Newkirk
Robert Suarez Armando Benitez Jim Hughes John Wyatt
Jeremiah Estrada Roger Hambright Greg Ferlenda Josh Schmidt
Edwuin Bencomo Sam Held Justin Amlung Greg Kallevig
Aaron Leasher Cole McCurry Robert Ludwick Cedric Shaw
Aaron Brooks Steve Hargan Rusty Meacham Tom McCarthy
Bobby Milacki Dillon Tate Matt Schwager Jack Whillock
Lake Bachar Pete Taylor Connor Robertson Pete Janicki
Nick Hernandez Alex Carrasquel Kevin Quackenbush Tom Waddell
Duncan Snider Ken Johnson Chuck Hickman Gale Kennedy
Nolan Watson Alex McRae Jose Sanchez Kyle McGowin
Jason Blanchard Jose Jimenez Craig Minetto Evan Crawford
Luis García Jim Johnson Bill Voiselle Doug Bair
Gabe Morales Scott Neal Pat Gillick Mark Bowden
Brian Gonzalez John Boling Bryan Harper James Thomas
Angel Sánchez Jim Ed Warden James Reynolds Vern Handrahan
Nick Duron Rafael Carmona Joe Bruno Bill Moran
Jose Quezada Mike Heinen Daryl Patterson Kevin Meistickle
Sean Poppen Roman Colon 콜론 Connor Robertson Thomas Atlee
Mason Fox David Carpenter Kevin Meistickle Greg Johnson
Seth Mayberry Scott Economy Jose Ortega Marc Pisciotta
Tim Hill Atlee Hammaker Mark Thurmond Lee Guetterman
Kevin Kopps Julio DePaula 데폴라 Alberto Cabrera Travis Lakins
Raul Brito Miguel Almonte Corey Copping J.C. Ramirez
James Bourque George Smith Bart Evans Derek Aucoin
Domingo Tapia Alexi Ogando 오간도 Manny Delcarmen Tom Wilhelmsen
Jake Sanchez Bob McGraw Jose Alberro Ron Piche
Michel Baez Trey Haley Jon Searles Johnny James
Henry Henry Pat Young Tim Lavigne Richard Ordway
Eric Hanhold Vito Valentinetti Collin Balester 벨레스터 Dave Wainhouse
Justin Lopez Charlie Morelock Dick Balderson Richard Ordway
Sean Reynolds Jimmy Yacabonis Mark Silva J.C. Ramirez

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Blake Snell .192 .266 .280 .214 .313 .364 4.5 1.5 2.78 4.21
Joe Musgrove .237 .303 .391 .233 .283 .364 3.6 1.9 2.95 3.90
Yu Darvish .240 .299 .393 .220 .278 .378 3.0 0.8 3.28 4.82
Seth Lugo .236 .307 .403 .258 .301 .440 2.1 0.4 3.60 4.69
Michael Wacha .224 .291 .380 .261 .309 .459 2.0 0.4 3.66 4.79
Josh Hader .161 .266 .250 .194 .282 .368 1.9 0.0 2.22 4.14
Matt Waldron .243 .306 .414 .264 .317 .439 1.8 0.1 3.88 5.04
Adam Mazur .267 .340 .449 .234 .286 .383 1.2 -0.1 3.88 5.10
Robby Snelling .270 .333 .405 .239 .313 .412 1.2 -0.2 4.08 5.16
Pedro Avila .252 .346 .387 .235 .327 .408 1.2 -0.1 4.02 5.13
Glenn Otto .235 .327 .403 .235 .321 .401 1.2 -0.3 4.01 5.41
Jairo Iriarte .227 .341 .383 .234 .332 .411 1.2 -0.2 4.03 5.09
Enyel De Los Santos .222 .309 .370 .224 .281 .381 1.0 -0.3 3.35 4.89
Ryan Bergert .256 .337 .432 .245 .316 .408 1.0 -0.2 4.24 5.23
Jose Espada .263 .361 .456 .213 .304 .369 0.8 -0.4 3.88 5.30
Jared Kollar .269 .335 .428 .255 .315 .451 0.7 -0.3 4.26 5.36
Efrain Contreras .257 .356 .436 .243 .320 .422 0.8 -0.5 4.27 5.57
Tom Cosgrove .197 .288 .352 .237 .331 .397 0.8 -0.4 3.15 5.00
Adrian Morejon .224 .296 .327 .252 .325 .467 0.5 -0.1 3.64 4.94
Jay Groome .268 .367 .430 .234 .335 .393 1.1 -0.8 4.41 5.57
Alek Jacob .253 .341 .453 .220 .294 .363 0.5 -0.2 3.43 4.88
Drew Carlton .256 .326 .419 .233 .292 .408 0.5 -0.3 3.55 4.92
Steven Wilson .230 .337 .368 .204 .291 .388 0.7 -0.5 3.37 4.94
Rich Hill .245 .333 .418 .260 .322 .471 0.9 -0.8 4.33 5.75
Reiss Knehr .241 .331 .422 .242 .341 .383 0.5 -0.6 4.35 5.67
Moises Lugo .260 .370 .440 .203 .309 .352 0.6 -0.5 3.86 5.26
Ray Kerr .206 .316 .338 .243 .340 .436 0.6 -0.6 3.56 5.15
Daniel Camarena .266 .314 .405 .288 .340 .495 0.4 -0.4 4.52 5.54
Gabe Mosser .282 .348 .447 .268 .320 .482 0.3 -0.4 4.59 5.76
Logan Gillaspie .255 .321 .418 .261 .325 .423 0.4 -0.4 3.83 5.14
Anderson Espinoza .261 .368 .450 .241 .338 .397 0.6 -0.8 4.69 5.70
Robert Suarez .227 .326 .413 .218 .303 .385 0.5 -0.7 3.40 5.94
Jeremiah Estrada .247 .360 .438 .200 .303 .353 0.3 -0.5 3.64 5.12
Edwuin Bencomo .267 .328 .466 .267 .320 .415 0.3 -0.5 4.30 5.45
Aaron Leasher .253 .362 .392 .262 .357 .442 0.4 -0.6 4.55 5.76
Aaron Brooks .263 .325 .456 .273 .331 .438 0.3 -0.6 4.23 5.59
Bobby Milacki .244 .319 .398 .281 .344 .475 0.3 -0.6 4.25 5.36
Lake Bachar .266 .367 .422 .250 .312 .445 0.4 -0.7 4.20 5.54
Nick Hernandez .256 .346 .467 .209 .298 .330 0.4 -0.7 3.77 5.37
Duncan Snider .277 .388 .470 .250 .343 .398 0.1 -0.5 4.94 6.08
Nolan Watson .285 .374 .477 .260 .340 .417 0.2 -0.9 4.83 5.78
Jason Blanchard .246 .338 .333 .252 .340 .472 0.1 -0.7 4.12 5.48
Luis García .274 .365 .440 .234 .320 .411 0.2 -0.8 3.78 5.74
Gabe Morales .203 .338 .288 .246 .385 .454 0.2 -0.9 4.48 6.23
Brian Gonzalez .231 .362 .333 .253 .364 .482 -0.1 -0.6 4.89 6.45
Angel Sánchez .256 .365 .439 .264 .346 .451 0.0 -0.8 4.70 6.31
Nick Duron .232 .368 .411 .246 .354 .435 -0.1 -0.7 4.36 5.92
Jose Quezada .250 .368 .375 .246 .338 .475 -0.1 -0.7 4.46 6.06
Sean Poppen .281 .375 .458 .248 .317 .416 0.1 -0.8 4.29 5.60
Mason Fox .250 .375 .433 .235 .323 .395 0.0 -0.8 4.25 5.90
Seth Mayberry .233 .356 .356 .247 .343 .452 0.0 -0.7 4.25 5.44
Tim Hill .242 .315 .333 .282 .342 .505 -0.1 -0.8 4.39 5.87
Kevin Kopps .238 .341 .448 .252 .350 .370 0.0 -1.0 4.31 5.55
Raul Brito .270 .381 .416 .223 .325 .417 -0.1 -1.0 4.39 5.79
James Bourque .244 .414 .422 .234 .362 .426 -0.3 -0.9 5.15 7.92
Domingo Tapia .247 .375 .452 .250 .346 .402 -0.2 -1.0 4.58 6.28
Jake Sanchez .270 .369 .494 .248 .330 .406 -0.1 -1.0 4.34 5.91
Michel Baez .254 .383 .448 .256 .358 .422 -0.3 -1.0 4.82 6.20
Henry Henry .260 .390 .469 .262 .350 .410 -0.2 -1.0 4.91 6.06
Eric Hanhold .250 .364 .405 .250 .352 .442 -0.2 -1.2 4.55 6.13
Justin Lopez .268 .395 .451 .238 .347 .425 -0.4 -1.0 4.98 6.37
Sean Reynolds .234 .371 .426 .248 .357 .405 -0.3 -1.3 4.74 6.26

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.


2024 ZiPS Projections: Houston Astros

by
December 1, 2023
ZiPS Projections
2024 2023

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Houston Astros.

Batters

With the big five on offense (Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Chas McCormick when not being randomly benched), the Astros have a pretty high floor in terms of runs scored. ZiPS projects a gentle decline phase for Altuve; Tucker and Alvarez are smack-dab in their prime years. There are some dark clouds on the horizon, as Bregman and Altuve are free agents after the season, but that’s a problem for Future Dana Brown to worry about.

Jeremy Peña came down a bit from his rookie season, as expected, but he’s still a solidly above-average shortstop overall. Yainer Diaz should be fine with the bulk of the time behind the plate. Jake Meyers seems to get a bad rap, but I’m wondering if part of the reason he feels so unexciting is just how good the rest of the lineup is. The weak spot will likely be first base, even with ZiPS projecting somewhat of a bounceback year from José Abreu, who was awful last season before his power started appearing again in August. Being 37 for the 2024 season limits just how much of a comeback to expect from him. Read the rest of this entry »


Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 11/30/23

by
November 30, 2023
12:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ITS CLOBBERING TIME
12:00
striker: Being an Orioles fan and play analyst, who would you be willing to give up in a Cease deal? Would a Cease + Jimenez deal interest you?
12:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Jimenez no
12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Cease, I’d do something with Westburg as the center (I like Westburg). But I wouldn’t go Westburg AND Mayo
12:04
Joe: What key indicators do you look at for determining if a prospect should be called up?
12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, who he’s replacing really.

Read the rest of this entry »


2024 ZiPS Projections: Detroit Tigers

by
November 30, 2023
ZiPS Projections
2024 2023

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Detroit Tigers.

Batters

This is hardly an impressive set of offensive projections, but given that Detroit ranked 13th in the American League in runs scored in 2023, it would be odd to expect them to be that great at this point in the offseason. And in contrast to a team like the Royals, the Tigers have a lot of interesting players, most with actual upside. ZiPS likes Riley Greene, but that’s nothing new, as he’s long been the system’s favorite Tigers hitter. The computer is a believer in Spencer Torkelson’s second-half power being closer to his actual abilities. Tork was one of the biggest underperformers in the zStats that ZiPS uses as part of establishing a player’s baseline. Now, it’s not exactly projecting him to become Matt Olson or anything, but after 2022 and the early parts of 2023, this constitutes a pretty good comeback. Mark Canha is in his decline phase, but he’ll still at least get on base and is relatively flexible on the diamond, though he’s more of an emergency option at third base and in center field at this point.

Javier Báez is the only really depressing veteran hitter projection here. I can’t shake the feeling that he’s got one last season or so of relevance in there somewhere, but that could just be a relic of my memories from before pitchers figured out how to absolutely shut Báez down. ZiPS isn’t really all that keen on Matt Vierling, and third base might be a useful place for the Tigers to look at upgrading this offseason. A Jeimer Candelario reunion would be fun if he’s into it, though the team may simply utilize Colt Keith and Jace Jung at second and third, depending on how their fielding shakes out. ZiPS is very interested in Justyn-Henry Malloy as a hitter, but it absolutely detests his defense at third.

It makes me sad to say, but even with a very ordinary DH situation, the team picks up one or two wins a year just from not having to play Miguel Cabrera.

Detroit will still likely finish in the bottom half of the league in runs scored, but there are players worth watching here.

Pitchers

Tarik Skubal came back from flexor tendon surgery to be one of the best pitchers in baseball in the second half of the season, and I remain surprised how little he was talked about. He came back throwing harder and with better command than he’d previously had in the majors, making me wonder if they replaced a tendon with an industrial spring. Whatever the cause, ZiPS is into it, though it’s obviously hedging its bets about Skubal’s health. There aren’t any real standouts in the rotation, including recent signee Kenta Maeda, but ZiPS sees the Tigers with a lot of starters just below league average, and the vast majority of them are in their mid-20s or younger, so it’s likely a few of them will break out. The computer is especially interested in Sawyer Gipson-Long and Jackson Jobe.

If our depth charts are right about the pecking order in the bullpen, the Tigers are poised to get the most of their relief corps, and ZiPS especially likes Will Vest and Tyler Holton. The quality of the ‘pen drops off a bit as you get to the back of it, but that’s normal for a team that’s still rebuilding. One or two of the starters who don’t make the rotation might serve to fill that need.

Overall, the Tigers look like a roughly .500 team, but their talent is made up of younger players, so they have a decent win ceiling, though I don’t think there’s much chance they go the route of the 2023 Orioles in 2024. In the AL East, this forecast would mean fighting with the Red Sox, but in the AL Central, the Tigers are actually playoff relevant, though they’re certainly far from the favorite.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Riley Greene L 23 CF 497 448 65 120 21 5 15 56 44 130 7 1
Spencer Torkelson R 24 1B 656 576 91 140 33 1 33 94 67 155 3 0
Mark Canha R 35 LF 493 417 61 111 23 3 11 49 51 86 8 1
Austin Meadows L 29 LF 475 418 59 109 25 4 17 65 47 88 3 3
Colt Keith L 22 3B 558 507 72 128 29 3 19 75 44 128 2 1
Jace Jung L 23 2B 556 493 56 110 23 2 18 67 55 159 2 1
Parker Meadows L 24 CF 597 536 72 122 23 5 15 67 48 149 15 3
Eddys Leonard R 23 SS 565 515 64 123 26 3 13 56 35 141 3 3
Jake Rogers R 29 C 319 288 37 59 10 2 13 43 26 104 1 1
Ryan Kreidler R 26 SS 401 355 51 77 14 1 11 45 36 122 9 3
Javier Báez R 31 SS 522 488 60 115 21 3 14 61 23 133 10 2
Akil Baddoo L 25 LF 432 383 52 93 17 5 11 45 46 106 16 5
Dillon Dingler R 25 C 393 353 45 75 15 2 10 48 28 126 2 1
Andy Ibáñez R 31 2B 432 396 49 103 24 2 10 47 31 74 3 1
Kerry Carpenter L 26 RF 496 453 58 116 22 2 19 69 32 117 4 3
Zach McKinstry L 29 3B 452 405 57 99 19 5 10 37 38 98 10 4
Jonathan Schoop R 32 3B 463 428 53 107 21 1 11 46 25 99 2 1
Joe Rizzo L 26 3B 438 406 51 99 22 1 10 46 28 101 1 1
Carson Kelly R 29 C 304 269 32 60 13 0 8 29 29 67 1 1
Nick Maton L 27 3B 433 374 48 83 20 2 9 42 48 107 3 2
Andrew Navigato R 26 SS 377 346 43 81 18 2 8 45 21 88 6 5
Justyn-Henry Malloy R 24 3B 581 496 71 116 21 0 16 59 75 155 3 1
Bligh Madris L 28 RF 457 406 47 93 19 4 10 46 43 116 5 3
Eliezer Alfonzo B 24 C 391 363 43 97 14 0 6 40 19 38 1 0
Wenceel Pérez B 24 2B 508 461 68 113 20 6 7 52 39 96 13 4
Seth Stephenson R 23 CF 513 454 73 100 16 6 3 53 25 137 35 10
Andre Lipcius R 26 1B 493 439 54 107 21 2 9 50 48 97 3 2
Nick Solak R 29 LF 450 399 53 99 17 2 9 45 38 95 5 3
Matt Vierling R 27 RF 526 479 60 123 21 5 10 44 40 106 6 6
Corey Joyce R 25 SS 344 297 35 62 12 2 5 36 35 97 6 2
John Valente R 29 2B 235 216 25 58 10 3 2 23 15 28 5 2
Jake Holton R 26 1B 449 389 49 91 15 3 9 51 45 90 1 2
Isan Díaz L 28 2B 341 303 45 67 13 1 12 38 33 98 3 1
Tyler Nevin R 27 1B 467 416 52 101 19 2 12 51 40 95 2 1
Carlos Mendoza L 24 2B 313 260 39 62 8 2 1 25 38 58 5 4
Danny Serretti B 24 SS 414 368 46 83 18 1 5 37 38 95 2 4
Luis Santana R 24 3B 341 316 33 72 14 1 7 34 17 82 3 2
Donny Sands R 28 C 355 320 33 74 16 0 6 31 31 76 1 1
Brendon Davis R 26 RF 466 417 53 92 21 3 13 56 40 130 4 2
Gage Workman L 24 SS 471 433 56 89 22 4 10 48 33 180 12 4
Mario Feliciano R 25 C 261 244 26 59 12 1 3 25 10 53 0 1
Chris Meyers L 25 1B 400 368 45 85 16 2 11 48 23 100 3 1
Julio E. Rodriguez R 27 C 283 257 25 54 7 0 8 27 22 86 0 1
Trei Cruz B 25 CF 492 433 54 86 18 4 7 40 56 139 6 4
Grant Witherspoon L 27 RF 395 358 42 80 15 3 9 40 33 113 7 4
Josh Crouch R 25 C 365 335 28 73 13 1 5 34 22 102 0 1
Diego Rincones R 25 DH 290 266 32 66 10 0 7 31 15 50 0 1
Steele Walker L 27 RF 353 325 37 74 14 2 6 33 23 72 3 3
Austin Murr L 25 LF 363 331 41 77 17 2 3 32 26 66 5 1
Justice Bigbie R 25 LF 455 418 52 106 18 2 9 53 28 98 3 1
Michael Papierski B 28 1B 352 306 35 68 12 1 6 31 38 80 0 1
Luke Gold R 23 2B 401 359 45 80 17 1 8 46 25 101 5 1
Brady Allen R 24 RF 531 477 57 103 23 3 12 56 45 164 3 1
Eric De La Rosa R 27 LF 340 307 38 63 13 4 4 36 21 127 12 4
Bryant Packard L 26 DH 275 254 33 57 12 1 5 30 12 69 6 2
Miguel Cabrera R 41 1B 389 351 27 88 13 0 7 39 30 87 0 1
Daniel Cabrera L 25 RF 412 376 43 85 16 3 5 36 32 89 4 1
Ben Malgeri R 24 CF 437 392 55 82 16 3 8 48 32 141 8 5

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA RC
Riley Greene 497 .268 .336 .438 115 .170 .347 1 2.6 .335 68
Spencer Torkelson 656 .243 .326 .476 122 .233 .276 -1 2.2 .342 90
Mark Canha 493 .266 .371 .415 121 .149 .313 -3 1.9 .347 66
Austin Meadows 475 .261 .339 .462 122 .201 .294 0 1.7 .343 67
Colt Keith 558 .252 .314 .434 107 .181 .303 -3 1.6 .321 70
Jace Jung 556 .223 .308 .387 94 .164 .291 3 1.5 .304 60
Parker Meadows 597 .228 .294 .373 86 .146 .288 4 1.2 .291 63
Eddys Leonard 565 .239 .303 .377 90 .138 .305 -1 1.2 .298 61
Jake Rogers 319 .205 .277 .389 84 .184 .269 5 1.2 .289 32
Ryan Kreidler 401 .217 .298 .355 83 .138 .297 4 1.1 .289 41
Javier Báez 522 .236 .280 .377 83 .141 .296 2 1.0 .284 54
Akil Baddoo 432 .243 .323 .399 102 .157 .308 2 1.0 .315 55
Dillon Dingler 393 .212 .288 .351 79 .139 .300 4 1.0 .282 36
Andy Ibáñez 432 .260 .318 .407 102 .146 .298 -4 1.0 .315 52
Kerry Carpenter 496 .256 .315 .439 109 .183 .306 -1 0.9 .323 65
Zach McKinstry 452 .244 .313 .390 96 .146 .300 -2 0.9 .307 53
Jonathan Schoop 463 .250 .296 .381 89 .131 .302 3 0.9 .294 49
Joe Rizzo 438 .244 .295 .377 87 .133 .302 4 0.8 .292 46
Carson Kelly 304 .223 .303 .361 86 .138 .268 1 0.8 .291 30
Nick Maton 433 .222 .316 .358 89 .136 .287 1 0.8 .298 44
Andrew Navigato 377 .234 .289 .367 83 .133 .292 2 0.6 .287 40
Justyn-Henry Malloy 581 .234 .339 .373 100 .139 .308 -12 0.6 .317 64
Bligh Madris 457 .229 .303 .369 88 .140 .296 6 0.5 .294 48
Eliezer Alfonzo 391 .267 .307 .355 86 .088 .285 -3 0.5 .291 40
Wenceel Pérez 508 .245 .308 .360 87 .115 .296 -3 0.5 .294 55
Seth Stephenson 513 .220 .295 .302 69 .081 .309 5 0.5 .270 52
Andre Lipcius 493 .244 .318 .362 91 .118 .294 5 0.4 .301 52
Nick Solak 450 .248 .327 .368 96 .120 .305 0 0.4 .309 50
Matt Vierling 526 .257 .320 .384 97 .127 .311 0 0.4 .308 63
Corey Joyce 344 .209 .311 .313 77 .104 .292 -1 0.4 .284 31
John Valente 235 .269 .321 .370 94 .102 .301 -2 0.4 .303 27
Jake Holton 449 .234 .332 .357 94 .123 .283 1 0.3 .309 47
Isan Díaz 341 .221 .303 .389 93 .168 .285 -3 0.3 .300 37
Tyler Nevin 467 .243 .317 .385 96 .142 .288 1 0.3 .308 52
Carlos Mendoza 313 .238 .346 .296 84 .058 .303 -2 0.3 .297 29
Danny Serretti 414 .226 .302 .321 76 .095 .291 0 0.3 .279 38
Luis Santana 341 .228 .282 .345 75 .117 .286 3 0.2 .276 32
Donny Sands 355 .231 .299 .338 79 .106 .286 -3 0.2 .282 33
Brendon Davis 466 .221 .298 .379 89 .158 .288 0 0.0 .296 49
Gage Workman 471 .206 .265 .344 70 .139 .325 0 0.0 .267 44
Mario Feliciano 261 .242 .284 .336 74 .094 .298 -1 0.0 .272 24
Chris Meyers 400 .231 .290 .375 85 .144 .288 3 -0.1 .290 41
Julio E. Rodriguez 283 .210 .279 .331 71 .121 .282 -3 -0.2 .271 24
Trei Cruz 492 .199 .291 .307 69 .109 .275 2 -0.2 .270 42
Grant Witherspoon 395 .223 .291 .358 81 .134 .301 2 -0.2 .284 40
Josh Crouch 365 .218 .274 .307 63 .090 .298 0 -0.2 .259 29
Diego Rincones 290 .248 .303 .365 87 .117 .282 0 -0.2 .293 30
Steele Walker 353 .228 .283 .338 74 .111 .275 4 -0.3 .274 33
Austin Murr 363 .233 .296 .323 74 .091 .282 3 -0.3 .276 33
Justice Bigbie 455 .254 .310 .371 91 .117 .312 -4 -0.3 .298 49
Michael Papierski 352 .222 .316 .327 82 .105 .282 0 -0.4 .289 32
Luke Gold 401 .223 .294 .343 79 .120 .288 -8 -0.5 .282 38
Brady Allen 531 .216 .290 .352 80 .136 .302 0 -0.6 .283 50
Eric De La Rosa 340 .205 .279 .313 67 .107 .335 2 -0.6 .265 31
Bryant Packard 275 .224 .276 .339 72 .114 .289 0 -0.7 .271 26
Miguel Cabrera 389 .251 .311 .348 85 .097 .315 -3 -0.7 .290 38
Daniel Cabrera 412 .226 .286 .324 72 .098 .284 0 -0.9 .270 36
Ben Malgeri 437 .209 .284 .327 72 .117 .305 -8 -1.1 .272 40

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Riley Greene Ken Griffey Sr. Dave May Brandon Nimmo
Spencer Torkelson Anthony Rizzo Chuck Harrison Mark Teixeira
Mark Canha Rube Bressler Enos Slaughter Art Pennington
Austin Meadows Josh Reddick Leon Roberts Johnny Callison
Colt Keith Eric Chavez Don Money Hank Blalock
Jace Jung Steve Curry Isan Díaz Willie Greene
Parker Meadows Blake Tekotte Clyde Mashore Jarvis Brown
Eddys Leonard Eugenio Suárez Tom Matchick Khalil Greene
Jake Rogers Pete Varney Dave Duncan Kelly Stinnett
Ryan Kreidler Denny Gonzalez Mark Dougherty Mike Ahmed
Javier Báez Greg Gagne Julian Javier Billy Urbanski
Akil Baddoo Leonardo Heras Bill Mott Barry Shetrone
Dillon Dingler Larry Howard John Gibbons Jack Fimple
Andy Ibáñez Victor Rodríguez Jason Hardtke Keith Lockhart
Kerry Carpenter Cecil Cooper Jay Johnstone Carl Warwick
Zach McKinstry Derrel Thomas Nelson Liriano Andy Green
Jonathan Schoop Joe Ala Ozzie Virgil Dave Hilton
Joe Rizzo Roy Staiger Ryan Wheeler Greg Rohan
Carson Kelly Phil Ouellette Sammy Taylor Cole Armstrong
Nick Maton Reid Fronk Matt Antonelli Nate Spears
Andrew Navigato Felix Escalona Johnnie LeMaster Chris Owings
Justyn-Henry Malloy Nolan Jones Logan Forsythe Tom Evans
Bligh Madris Matthew den Dekker Mike Yastrzemski Carlos Moncrief
Eliezer Alfonzo Willians Astudillo Robinzon Diaz Toby Hall
Wenceel Pérez Dave Lowery Luis Rengifo Tom Herr
Seth Stephenson Jason McFarlin Reginald Niles David Francisco
Andre Lipcius Daniel Argee Dane Iorg Matthew Daskalakis
Nick Solak Leonel Carrion Marv Thompson Felix Maldonado
Matt Vierling Chas McCormick Bryan Petersen Al Spangler
Corey Joyce Casey Benjamin Pfilip Hunt Darrel Chaney
John Valente Mike Woodard Mike Caruso Larry Milbourne
Jake Holton Mark Berry Jeff McKnight Don Engbers
Isan Díaz Jack Lind Ryan Flaherty Ted Lepcio
Tyler Nevin Kelly Snider Gaby Sanchez Charlie Leonard
Carlos Mendoza Tom Howser Rich Paz Ed Giovanola
Danny Serretti Dave Berg Lanny Vessell Justin Snyder
Luis Santana Lipso Nava Jonathan Mota Shane Letterio
Donny Sands Jim Foster Angel Flores David Nitschke
Brendon Davis Jessie Reid Greg Norton Rick Lisi
Gage Workman Antonio Perez Jaime Pedroza Daryl Robertson
Mario Feliciano Billy Ireland Keith Foley Ken Huckaby
Chris Meyers John Wooten Roger LaFrancois Herbert Perry
Julio E. Rodriguez Josh Ludy Ryan Christianson Vic Valencia
Trei Cruz Brian Burgamy Danny Payne Steve Johnson
Grant Witherspoon Ryan Kalish Mel Rojas Jack Rothrock
Josh Crouch Mike Knapp Scott Sandusky John Vanden Berg
Diego Rincones Justin Ringo Jim Stefanski Eddie Tanner
Steele Walker Pookie Wilson Ryan Fleming Joe Caruso
Austin Murr Charles Marcenaro John Turner Gary Weinberger
Justice Bigbie Ted Cox Tony Torchia Bob Hartsfield
Michael Papierski Ronnie Farkas Doug Radziewicz Andrew Clark
Luke Gold Jack Mayfield Pokey Reese Johnny Goryl
Brady Allen Shon Ashley Inocencio Guerrero Gordon Carter
Eric De La Rosa Candido Martinez Derran Watts Tate Matheny
Bryant Packard Herlis Rodriguez Ryan Lormand Jesus Solorzano
Miguel Cabrera Ray Knight Lou Merloni Johnny Wyrostek
Daniel Cabrera Ryan Goetz Bob Servoss Cliff Gonzalez
Ben Malgeri Jeremey Kendall Steve Martin Julio Martinez

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Riley Greene .298 .368 .497 137 3.9 .236 .305 .381 94 1.2
Spencer Torkelson .269 .351 .532 143 3.9 .215 .299 .403 97 0.4
Mark Canha .293 .395 .459 138 2.9 .238 .343 .367 101 0.7
Austin Meadows .284 .366 .512 142 2.8 .235 .315 .406 102 0.6
Colt Keith .276 .339 .493 129 3.3 .226 .284 .382 87 0.2
Jace Jung .251 .333 .443 115 2.9 .198 .280 .340 74 0.1
Parker Meadows .254 .320 .417 103 2.5 .207 .272 .328 70 0.1
Eddys Leonard .264 .329 .429 109 2.7 .209 .279 .328 72 0.0
Jake Rogers .234 .306 .448 108 2.1 .178 .246 .328 62 0.3
Ryan Kreidler .242 .324 .408 102 2.0 .190 .271 .304 64 0.2
Javier Báez .261 .303 .422 101 2.2 .211 .254 .330 65 -0.1
Akil Baddoo .267 .348 .452 120 2.0 .214 .294 .346 80 -0.1
Dillon Dingler .238 .312 .400 97 1.8 .185 .260 .311 60 0.1
Andy Ibáñez .286 .346 .458 123 2.1 .229 .287 .357 82 -0.1
Kerry Carpenter .281 .339 .489 127 2.0 .231 .288 .395 91 -0.1
Zach McKinstry .271 .339 .445 116 2.0 .216 .287 .340 77 0.0
Jonathan Schoop .277 .325 .423 106 1.9 .222 .270 .335 70 -0.2
Joe Rizzo .268 .319 .429 105 1.7 .221 .271 .333 69 -0.2
Carson Kelly .258 .329 .419 109 1.6 .195 .274 .311 66 0.1
Nick Maton .247 .338 .404 108 1.7 .195 .290 .318 71 -0.2
Andrew Navigato .262 .317 .421 103 1.6 .206 .262 .319 63 -0.2
Justyn-Henry Malloy .258 .367 .419 119 1.9 .208 .313 .338 84 -0.6
Bligh Madris .256 .330 .418 109 1.6 .202 .275 .326 71 -0.5
Eliezer Alfonzo .297 .337 .399 105 1.4 .236 .275 .310 65 -0.5
Wenceel Pérez .271 .334 .403 107 1.8 .218 .282 .317 69 -0.6
Seth Stephenson .243 .314 .338 83 1.4 .195 .273 .266 54 -0.6
Andre Lipcius .271 .345 .407 110 1.6 .215 .290 .320 74 -0.6
Nick Solak .279 .356 .408 115 1.4 .224 .302 .324 78 -0.5
Matt Vierling .283 .346 .427 115 1.6 .231 .293 .340 79 -0.8
Corey Joyce .237 .335 .364 98 1.2 .181 .283 .270 59 -0.3
John Valente .300 .348 .410 113 0.9 .238 .288 .323 73 -0.3
Jake Holton .262 .357 .404 114 1.3 .205 .305 .314 76 -0.7
Isan Díaz .247 .326 .442 112 1.1 .194 .275 .342 74 -0.5
Tyler Nevin .270 .342 .435 117 1.5 .215 .291 .337 78 -0.7
Carlos Mendoza .265 .376 .332 100 0.9 .207 .318 .262 65 -0.4
Danny Serretti .254 .328 .361 93 1.2 .200 .274 .278 58 -0.6
Luis Santana .255 .308 .401 96 1.0 .198 .253 .306 57 -0.6
Donny Sands .266 .332 .392 102 1.1 .202 .270 .294 61 -0.7
Brendon Davis .249 .323 .432 108 1.1 .196 .271 .330 69 -1.1
Gage Workman .234 .290 .397 92 1.2 .179 .239 .292 50 -1.2
Mario Feliciano .271 .313 .383 94 0.7 .209 .254 .289 53 -0.7
Chris Meyers .261 .318 .420 105 0.9 .204 .264 .324 65 -1.0
Julio E. Rodriguez .238 .312 .384 94 0.6 .178 .245 .287 50 -0.9
Trei Cruz .226 .321 .355 89 1.0 .171 .262 .269 50 -1.3
Grant Witherspoon .252 .321 .411 104 0.8 .197 .265 .316 63 -1.1
Josh Crouch .247 .303 .346 81 0.5 .190 .249 .267 47 -1.0
Diego Rincones .276 .331 .425 109 0.5 .221 .276 .321 69 -0.9
Steele Walker .254 .309 .389 93 0.5 .202 .258 .297 56 -1.1
Austin Murr .263 .325 .366 94 0.5 .205 .266 .279 56 -1.1
Justice Bigbie .281 .336 .419 110 0.8 .225 .279 .329 71 -1.4
Michael Papierski .252 .344 .371 99 0.4 .197 .291 .288 64 -1.2
Luke Gold .254 .322 .392 100 0.4 .198 .268 .301 62 -1.4
Brady Allen .241 .316 .394 96 0.5 .191 .268 .305 62 -1.7
Eric De La Rosa .233 .304 .358 86 0.2 .176 .248 .269 46 -1.4
Bryant Packard .254 .306 .390 95 0.1 .202 .252 .298 57 -1.2
Miguel Cabrera .279 .342 .387 104 0.1 .219 .284 .303 66 -1.7
Daniel Cabrera .253 .314 .368 90 0.0 .197 .259 .274 52 -1.9
Ben Malgeri .233 .310 .375 90 -0.1 .181 .261 .291 55 -1.9

Batters – Projected Splits
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
Riley Greene .264 .329 .419 .270 .339 .447
Spencer Torkelson .251 .342 .498 .238 .316 .462
Mark Canha .263 .365 .408 .268 .375 .419
Austin Meadows .244 .322 .433 .268 .346 .474
Colt Keith .244 .304 .397 .256 .318 .450
Jace Jung .214 .297 .379 .227 .312 .391
Parker Meadows .220 .283 .360 .231 .300 .380
Eddys Leonard .247 .311 .402 .233 .296 .358
Jake Rogers .211 .289 .404 .201 .269 .380
Ryan Kreidler .228 .315 .377 .207 .282 .337
Javier Báez .245 .292 .385 .232 .274 .374
Akil Baddoo .237 .317 .355 .245 .324 .414
Dillon Dingler .219 .295 .355 .207 .282 .348
Andy Ibáñez .265 .328 .420 .256 .311 .397
Kerry Carpenter .248 .311 .423 .260 .316 .447
Zach McKinstry .240 .310 .375 .246 .314 .395
Jonathan Schoop .256 .308 .368 .247 .290 .386
Joe Rizzo .234 .283 .353 .251 .302 .393
Carson Kelly .230 .316 .370 .219 .295 .355
Nick Maton .211 .304 .330 .226 .320 .370
Andrew Navigato .231 .288 .353 .237 .290 .379
Justyn-Henry Malloy .238 .355 .386 .231 .327 .364
Bligh Madris .224 .294 .340 .232 .308 .386
Eliezer Alfonzo .263 .303 .346 .270 .309 .361
Wenceel Pérez .239 .303 .344 .249 .311 .370
Seth Stephenson .222 .296 .311 .220 .295 .296
Andre Lipcius .241 .324 .359 .246 .314 .365
Nick Solak .257 .337 .395 .243 .321 .352
Matt Vierling .267 .335 .405 .250 .310 .370
Corey Joyce .210 .317 .315 .208 .307 .312
John Valente .274 .336 .387 .264 .305 .355
Jake Holton .238 .340 .378 .231 .326 .342
Isan Díaz .219 .299 .354 .222 .305 .406
Tyler Nevin .247 .323 .388 .239 .312 .382
Carlos Mendoza .235 .351 .284 .240 .344 .302
Danny Serretti .228 .309 .325 .224 .298 .318
Luis Santana .227 .282 .356 .228 .281 .337
Donny Sands .239 .316 .355 .225 .285 .324
Brendon Davis .228 .312 .393 .212 .283 .364
Gage Workman .196 .251 .323 .211 .273 .356
Mario Feliciano .248 .286 .343 .237 .282 .331
Chris Meyers .227 .286 .364 .233 .292 .380
Julio E. Rodriguez .209 .287 .318 .211 .273 .340
Trei Cruz .199 .291 .319 .199 .290 .300
Grant Witherspoon .210 .274 .322 .233 .303 .381
Josh Crouch .221 .278 .338 .216 .271 .284
Diego Rincones .254 .308 .393 .243 .299 .340
Steele Walker .221 .280 .321 .232 .286 .351
Austin Murr .226 .293 .321 .236 .297 .324
Justice Bigbie .254 .314 .367 .253 .307 .373
Michael Papierski .217 .317 .308 .226 .316 .339
Luke Gold .225 .294 .341 .222 .294 .344
Brady Allen .220 .301 .360 .213 .283 .347
Eric De La Rosa .212 .288 .333 .200 .273 .297
Bryant Packard .216 .272 .320 .233 .281 .357
Miguel Cabrera .256 .333 .367 .249 .303 .341
Daniel Cabrera .214 .268 .303 .234 .298 .338
Ben Malgeri .213 .294 .338 .207 .277 .319

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Eduardo Rodriguez L 31 9 10 4.05 25 25 137.7 135 62 16 44 130
Tarik Skubal L 27 6 6 3.65 21 21 103.7 92 42 11 26 108
Reese Olson R 24 7 8 4.35 28 25 124.0 115 60 15 52 119
Sawyer Gipson-Long R 26 7 9 4.31 23 20 104.3 103 50 14 32 96
Brant Hurter L 25 5 7 4.43 25 23 107.7 107 53 13 30 86
Ty Madden R 24 3 5 4.53 25 24 109.3 106 55 14 45 95
Kenta Maeda R 36 5 7 4.51 23 22 103.7 100 52 15 34 97
Keider Montero R 23 7 10 4.64 26 25 116.3 114 60 15 44 97
Wilmer Flores R 23 4 7 4.62 25 25 101.3 100 52 12 36 80
Tyler Holton L 28 4 3 3.84 51 3 77.3 70 33 9 21 70
Matt Manning R 26 4 6 4.55 19 19 91.0 89 46 12 32 73
Jackson Jobe R 21 4 5 4.60 23 23 88.0 87 45 12 29 67
Casey Mize R 27 4 6 4.61 19 19 95.7 93 49 14 28 71
Alex Faedo R 28 4 5 4.52 20 17 81.7 80 41 12 25 75
Dylan Smith R 24 4 6 4.52 21 20 75.7 79 38 9 23 53
Joey Wentz L 26 5 9 4.86 25 21 109.3 109 59 16 48 106
Beau Brieske R 26 4 5 4.48 26 12 72.3 72 36 9 23 56
Matthew Boyd L 33 4 5 4.57 14 14 67.0 64 34 10 24 72
Brenan Hanifee R 26 4 6 4.80 23 12 84.3 93 45 11 26 56
Will Vest R 29 2 3 3.99 57 3 58.7 55 26 7 21 61
Mason Englert R 24 4 5 4.69 31 10 78.7 80 41 10 25 64
Brendan White R 25 4 6 4.36 48 5 76.3 72 37 9 24 73
Miguel Diaz R 29 3 4 4.08 58 3 68.3 63 31 8 27 64
Carlos Pena L 25 3 7 5.04 22 18 89.3 94 50 12 36 67
Lael Lockhart L 26 3 5 4.98 24 12 85.0 85 47 11 42 69
Alex Lange R 28 5 6 4.16 65 0 62.7 49 29 7 35 83
Austin Bergner R 27 4 6 4.92 31 11 78.7 78 43 11 39 70
Tyler Mattison R 24 3 3 4.30 39 4 52.3 46 25 6 27 56
Jason Foley R 28 2 2 4.22 66 0 64.0 69 30 7 16 45
Garrett Hill R 28 3 4 5.04 29 12 80.3 78 45 11 40 74
Chance Kirby R 28 3 5 5.05 19 13 71.3 78 40 10 28 46
Zach Logue L 28 5 8 5.22 26 21 101.7 110 59 15 38 73
Spencer Turnbull R 31 2 5 5.28 14 14 59.7 61 35 8 25 51
Sean Guenther L 28 1 3 4.67 33 4 44.3 46 23 6 13 40
Rony García R 26 2 3 4.89 22 6 49.7 46 27 7 22 45
Miguel Del Pozo L 31 2 2 4.37 34 0 35.0 34 17 5 13 35
Ashton Goudeau R 31 2 4 5.40 21 12 65.0 71 39 9 26 37
Adam Wolf L 27 3 6 5.29 32 10 78.3 84 46 11 36 57
Kervin Castro R 25 2 4 4.63 33 1 46.7 44 24 5 24 44
RJ Petit R 24 2 3 4.77 42 1 54.7 57 29 7 18 39
Billy Lescher R 28 1 2 4.94 26 1 31.0 32 17 4 12 24
Andrew Vasquez L 30 1 3 4.76 40 0 45.3 40 24 5 18 43
Jace Fry L 30 2 3 4.94 31 0 31.0 28 17 4 17 33
Trey Wingenter R 30 1 1 5.20 38 2 36.3 33 21 5 17 38
Tim Naughton R 28 2 4 5.18 31 2 40.0 39 23 5 23 37
Jake Higginbotham L 28 2 2 5.04 38 1 50.0 53 28 6 20 34
Heath Hembree R 35 2 3 5.14 30 0 28.0 27 16 4 14 26
José Cisnero R 35 2 4 4.91 51 0 47.7 46 26 7 23 47
Bryce Tassin R 27 3 4 5.06 35 1 53.3 59 30 7 19 32
Angel De Jesus R 27 2 4 5.04 37 1 44.7 42 25 6 25 40
Braden Bristo R 29 2 3 5.19 40 1 52.0 50 30 7 31 48
Aneurys Zabala R 27 3 5 4.94 45 0 54.7 49 30 7 36 61
Layne Henderson R 28 2 5 5.15 36 0 50.7 48 29 7 34 52
Dario Gardea R 25 3 4 5.17 35 0 47.0 48 27 6 22 37
Sam Clay L 31 2 5 5.32 41 1 45.7 48 27 6 23 36
Michael Bienlien R 26 1 2 5.33 32 1 50.7 53 30 7 28 39
Yaya Chentouf R 27 2 4 5.48 32 0 42.7 46 26 6 21 30
Chavez Fernander R 26 1 4 5.77 29 1 39.0 42 25 5 22 25
Andrew Magno L 26 2 3 5.36 41 0 50.3 47 30 6 37 49
Blair Calvo R 28 3 6 5.47 43 0 52.7 53 32 7 29 46

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Eduardo Rodriguez 137.7 8.5 2.9 1.0 7.5% 22.3% .304 105 3.90 96 2.1
Tarik Skubal 103.7 9.4 2.3 1.0 6.1% 25.5% .292 116 3.39 86 2.0
Reese Olson 124.0 8.6 3.8 1.1 9.7% 22.2% .291 97 4.29 103 1.6
Sawyer Gipson-Long 104.3 8.3 2.8 1.2 7.2% 21.6% .298 98 4.19 102 1.3
Brant Hurter 107.7 7.2 2.5 1.1 6.5% 18.7% .291 96 4.29 104 1.2
Ty Madden 109.3 7.8 3.7 1.2 9.5% 20.0% .290 94 4.55 107 1.2
Kenta Maeda 103.7 8.4 3.0 1.3 7.7% 22.0% .291 94 4.34 106 1.1
Keider Montero 116.3 7.5 3.4 1.2 8.8% 19.4% .289 91 4.60 109 1.1
Wilmer Flores 101.3 7.1 3.2 1.1 8.2% 18.3% .289 92 4.55 109 1.0
Tyler Holton 77.3 8.1 2.4 1.0 6.5% 21.7% .281 110 3.89 91 1.0
Matt Manning 91.0 7.2 3.2 1.2 8.2% 18.8% .285 93 4.52 107 1.0
Jackson Jobe 88.0 6.9 3.0 1.2 7.7% 17.8% .283 92 4.66 109 0.9
Casey Mize 95.7 6.7 2.6 1.3 6.9% 17.6% .274 92 4.77 109 0.9
Alex Faedo 81.7 8.3 2.8 1.3 7.2% 21.6% .293 94 4.32 107 0.9
Dylan Smith 75.7 6.3 2.7 1.1 7.0% 16.1% .294 94 4.43 107 0.8
Joey Wentz 109.3 8.7 4.0 1.3 10.0% 22.0% .303 87 4.59 115 0.8
Beau Brieske 72.3 7.0 2.9 1.1 7.4% 18.1% .288 95 4.40 106 0.7
Matthew Boyd 67.0 9.7 3.2 1.3 8.4% 25.1% .302 93 4.30 108 0.7
Brenan Hanifee 84.3 6.0 2.8 1.2 7.0% 15.1% .301 88 4.76 113 0.6
Will Vest 58.7 9.4 3.2 1.1 8.3% 24.1% .302 106 3.90 94 0.6
Mason Englert 78.7 7.3 2.9 1.1 7.4% 18.9% .297 90 4.46 111 0.6
Brendan White 76.3 8.6 2.8 1.1 7.5% 22.7% .294 97 4.17 103 0.5
Miguel Diaz 68.3 8.4 3.6 1.1 9.2% 21.8% .288 104 4.22 96 0.5
Carlos Pena 89.3 6.8 3.6 1.2 9.1% 17.0% .297 84 4.95 119 0.5
Lael Lockhart 85.0 7.3 4.4 1.2 11.1% 18.2% .291 85 4.90 117 0.5
Alex Lange 62.7 11.9 5.0 1.0 12.5% 29.7% .294 102 3.97 98 0.4
Austin Bergner 78.7 8.0 4.5 1.3 11.0% 19.8% .295 86 4.89 116 0.4
Tyler Mattison 52.3 9.6 4.6 1.0 11.7% 24.2% .290 99 4.15 101 0.4
Jason Foley 64.0 6.3 2.3 1.0 5.9% 16.5% .304 101 4.11 99 0.3
Garrett Hill 80.3 8.3 4.5 1.2 11.2% 20.8% .294 84 4.91 119 0.3
Chance Kirby 71.3 5.8 3.5 1.3 8.8% 14.5% .296 84 5.09 119 0.3
Zach Logue 101.7 6.5 3.4 1.3 8.5% 16.3% .298 81 5.06 123 0.3
Spencer Turnbull 59.7 7.7 3.8 1.2 9.5% 19.4% .299 80 4.85 124 0.2
Sean Guenther 44.3 8.1 2.6 1.2 6.8% 20.9% .308 91 4.29 110 0.2
Rony García 49.7 8.2 4.0 1.3 10.3% 21.0% .281 87 4.91 115 0.2
Miguel Del Pozo 35.0 9.0 3.3 1.3 8.6% 23.0% .299 97 4.40 103 0.1
Ashton Goudeau 65.0 5.1 3.6 1.2 8.9% 12.7% .288 79 5.26 127 0.1
Adam Wolf 78.3 6.5 4.1 1.3 10.2% 16.2% .298 80 5.31 125 0.1
Kervin Castro 46.7 8.5 4.6 1.0 11.5% 21.2% .295 92 4.43 109 0.0
RJ Petit 54.7 6.4 3.0 1.2 7.6% 16.4% .292 89 4.76 113 0.0
Billy Lescher 31.0 7.0 3.5 1.2 8.8% 17.5% .295 86 4.74 116 0.0
Andrew Vasquez 45.3 8.5 3.6 1.0 9.3% 22.3% .280 89 4.58 112 0.0
Jace Fry 31.0 9.6 4.9 1.2 12.1% 23.6% .293 86 4.74 116 -0.1
Trey Wingenter 36.3 9.4 4.2 1.2 10.6% 23.6% .289 82 4.69 123 -0.1
Tim Naughton 40.0 8.3 5.2 1.1 12.6% 20.3% .298 82 4.91 122 -0.1
Jake Higginbotham 50.0 6.1 3.6 1.1 9.1% 15.5% .296 84 4.78 119 -0.1
Heath Hembree 28.0 8.4 4.5 1.3 11.3% 21.0% .291 82 4.86 121 -0.1
José Cisnero 47.7 8.9 4.3 1.3 10.8% 22.1% .295 86 4.89 116 -0.1
Bryce Tassin 53.3 5.4 3.2 1.2 8.0% 13.5% .295 84 5.00 119 -0.2
Angel De Jesus 44.7 8.1 5.0 1.2 12.4% 19.8% .283 84 5.23 119 -0.2
Braden Bristo 52.0 8.3 5.4 1.2 13.1% 20.3% .293 82 5.12 122 -0.3
Aneurys Zabala 54.7 10.0 5.9 1.2 14.3% 24.3% .298 86 5.05 116 -0.3
Layne Henderson 50.7 9.2 6.0 1.2 14.5% 22.1% .297 82 5.07 121 -0.3
Dario Gardea 47.0 7.1 4.2 1.1 10.4% 17.5% .296 82 5.06 122 -0.3
Sam Clay 45.7 7.1 4.5 1.2 11.1% 17.3% .300 80 5.23 125 -0.3
Michael Bienlien 50.7 6.9 5.0 1.2 12.0% 16.7% .297 80 5.41 126 -0.4
Yaya Chentouf 42.7 6.3 4.4 1.3 10.8% 15.4% .296 77 5.43 129 -0.4
Chavez Fernander 39.0 5.8 5.1 1.2 12.2% 13.8% .294 74 5.56 136 -0.4
Andrew Magno 50.3 8.8 6.6 1.1 15.6% 20.7% .293 79 5.24 126 -0.4
Blair Calvo 52.7 7.9 5.0 1.2 12.1% 19.2% .299 78 5.29 129 -0.5

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
Eduardo Rodriguez Jose Quintana Jim Kaat Eddie Neville
Tarik Skubal Joe Price Jon Matlack Julian Joyner
Reese Olson Bob Sebra Ron Tompkins Barry Latman
Sawyer Gipson-Long Pete Hamm Frank Pastore Julian Merryweather
Brant Hurter Paul Ah Yat Fritz Peterson Donovan Osborne
Ty Madden Jason Arnold Jeff Hoffman Ross Atkins
Kenta Maeda Orel Hershiser Jim Wilson Orlando Hernandez
Keider Montero Fernando Romero Jeff Hoffman James Lee
Wilmer Flores Brady Singer Buddy Harris Chris Balcom-Miller
Tyler Holton Bud Teachout Craig Lefferts Matt Strahm
Matt Manning Bill Stafford Jonathan Hurst Jim Nash
Jackson Jobe Marty Janzen 젠슨 Rod Nichols Brian Tollberg
Casey Mize Yonny Chirinos Daniel Mengden Brian Rose
Alex Faedo Paul Mitchell Ryan Bicondoa Tom Bradley
Dylan Smith J.D. Martin 마틴 Jon Adkins 애킨스 Sheldon Dent
Joey Wentz Austin Gomber James Gillheeney Wayne Edwards
Beau Brieske Hunter Wood David Nelson Anthony Bass
Matthew Boyd Ken Heintzelman Alex Kellner Joe Shaute
Brenan Hanifee Willie Blair Zeke Zeisz Reggie McClain
Will Vest Mace Brown Gary Buckels Felix Romero
Mason Englert Russ Kibler Mike Myers Luis Andujar
Brendan White James Mazzola Cory Wade Zach Petrick 페트릭
Miguel Diaz Edwin Moreno Adam Warren Vicente Romo
Carlos Pena Kent Murphy Tim Kalita Clay Daniel
Lael Lockhart Daniel McGrath Mike Yearout Kevin Morton
Alex Lange Mark Clear Jeff Brantley Juan Cruz
Austin Bergner Beltran Perez Reed Garrett Stolmy Pimentel
Tyler Mattison P.J. Bevis Joey Krehbiel Enoli Paredes
Jason Foley Chris Reitsma Jim Johnson Ryan Webb
Garrett Hill Darrel Akerfelds Daniel Corcino Joan Gregorio
Chance Kirby Brian Fisher John Straka Scott Shoemaker
Zach Logue David Huff 허프 Dillon Peters Matt Crouse
Spencer Turnbull Nardi Contreras Don Heinkel Joey Jay
Sean Guenther Jeff Urlaub Ramon Hernandez Kris Regas
Rony García Cam Hill DeWayne Mason Buck Freeman
Miguel Del Pozo Roger Samuels Brian Shouse Buddy Boshers
Ashton Goudeau Ray Semproch Brian Fisher David Pauley
Adam Wolf Doug Johns Raymond Cordeiro Carmen Pignatiello
Kervin Castro Rich Surhoff Barry Jones Sam Demel
RJ Petit Blake Hendley John Littlefield Mark Fuller
Billy Lescher Marv Rockman Michael Dwyer Gary Haught
Andrew Vasquez Pat Perry Craig Breslow James Russell
Jace Fry Bill Pleis Neal Cotts Lou Sleater
Trey Wingenter Justin Grimm Toby Borland Steve Johnson
Tim Naughton Todd Van Steensel Francisco Rodriguez Layne Somsen
Jake Higginbotham David Speer Kraig Sitton Jim Shellenback
Heath Hembree Alan Mills Tim Stoddard Jim Hughes
José Cisnero Jumbo Diaz Johnny Morrison Tim Worrell
Bryce Tassin Justin Souza Edwin Almonte Mark Fuller
Angel De Jesus Carlos Ramirez Rafael Carmona Pedro Beato
Braden Bristo Tim Barrett Jordan Milbrath Rocky Cherry
Aneurys Zabala Yoervis Medina Tom Shearn 션 Jim Otten
Layne Henderson Brandon Puffer Jeff Austin Brad Voyles
Dario Gardea Celson Polanco Scott Huntsman Rob Vael
Sam Clay Ron Flores John O’Donoghue Kevin Hickey
Michael Bienlien Aaron Pullin Jeff Schultz Juan Sosa
Yaya Chentouf Travis Wade Kevin Uhrhan Chris Malone
Chavez Fernander Bill Geiger Hayden Gardner Pete Magre
Andrew Magno Nick Maronde Scott Wiegandt Giovanni Soto
Blair Calvo Tayler Scott Tim Barrett Jordan Milbrath

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Eduardo Rodriguez .258 .318 .417 .249 .306 .397 3.0 0.9 3.48 4.89
Tarik Skubal .237 .272 .320 .231 .286 .388 2.7 1.3 3.10 4.29
Reese Olson .225 .309 .381 .255 .329 .401 2.4 0.4 3.85 5.16
Sawyer Gipson-Long .269 .330 .435 .236 .292 .398 2.1 0.5 3.69 5.00
Brant Hurter .224 .281 .313 .267 .328 .451 1.9 0.5 3.91 5.10
Ty Madden .259 .346 .429 .240 .306 .389 1.9 0.4 3.99 5.18
Kenta Maeda .269 .344 .452 .227 .274 .386 1.8 0.3 3.88 5.32
Keider Montero .242 .313 .395 .260 .337 .424 1.8 0.3 4.10 5.22
Wilmer Flores .239 .311 .399 .264 .340 .413 1.6 0.4 4.06 5.27
Tyler Holton .239 .290 .380 .235 .293 .382 1.7 0.2 3.10 4.75
Matt Manning .244 .321 .419 .257 .310 .410 1.4 0.3 4.05 5.17
Jackson Jobe .259 .316 .438 .247 .319 .407 1.5 0.3 4.02 5.33
Casey Mize .263 .335 .486 .237 .289 .366 1.5 0.3 4.06 5.14
Alex Faedo .248 .304 .439 .253 .311 .414 1.4 0.2 3.91 5.29
Dylan Smith .259 .322 .393 .267 .318 .442 1.3 0.3 3.99 5.20
Joey Wentz .273 .340 .432 .246 .325 .424 1.5 -0.3 4.30 5.81
Beau Brieske .246 .311 .381 .260 .317 .433 1.2 0.2 3.96 5.14
Matthew Boyd .224 .286 .362 .251 .325 .433 1.2 0.0 3.88 5.57
Brenan Hanifee .287 .348 .451 .263 .321 .429 1.0 0.0 4.35 5.43
Will Vest .245 .325 .396 .240 .295 .388 1.0 -0.2 3.28 5.20
Mason Englert .237 .301 .388 .275 .342 .444 1.1 0.1 4.13 5.25
Brendan White .241 .314 .372 .245 .320 .409 1.2 -0.2 3.52 5.30
Miguel Diaz .242 .319 .408 .238 .313 .371 1.1 -0.1 3.48 4.79
Carlos Pena .240 .322 .375 .275 .350 .454 0.9 -0.2 4.58 5.73
Lael Lockhart .266 .347 .450 .249 .337 .404 1.0 -0.1 4.44 5.56
Alex Lange .204 .323 .343 .216 .327 .360 1.2 -0.4 3.35 5.28
Austin Bergner .240 .329 .411 .265 .351 .438 0.9 -0.3 4.35 5.71
Tyler Mattison .242 .345 .358 .219 .297 .390 0.8 -0.1 3.72 5.06
Jason Foley .298 .347 .447 .246 .289 .387 0.7 -0.2 3.67 4.95
Garrett Hill .233 .343 .404 .263 .344 .431 0.9 -0.4 4.43 5.83
Chance Kirby .280 .364 .447 .266 .321 .448 0.7 -0.2 4.55 5.62
Zach Logue .245 .311 .391 .279 .351 .468 0.8 -0.5 4.73 5.96
Spencer Turnbull .270 .353 .443 .246 .331 .404 0.6 -0.3 4.55 6.04
Sean Guenther .267 .323 .400 .259 .320 .440 0.5 -0.2 3.87 5.45
Rony García .234 .327 .383 .247 .339 .433 0.6 -0.2 4.19 5.54
Miguel Del Pozo .224 .309 .327 .261 .327 .477 0.5 -0.3 3.53 5.28
Ashton Goudeau .274 .350 .452 .270 .336 .445 0.5 -0.4 4.84 6.08
Adam Wolf .240 .345 .385 .281 .360 .470 0.5 -0.6 4.76 6.02
Kervin Castro .264 .354 .402 .223 .321 .372 0.4 -0.4 4.02 5.39
RJ Petit .267 .333 .419 .259 .328 .429 0.4 -0.4 4.22 5.39
Billy Lescher .254 .333 .407 .266 .333 .453 0.2 -0.3 4.25 5.90
Andrew Vasquez .203 .309 .288 .246 .346 .421 0.4 -0.5 3.86 5.75
Jace Fry .214 .327 .333 .247 .352 .442 0.2 -0.5 4.08 6.17
Trey Wingenter .221 .329 .382 .250 .337 .431 0.2 -0.5 4.32 6.38
Tim Naughton .217 .333 .348 .276 .366 .460 0.2 -0.5 4.52 6.06
Jake Higginbotham .258 .315 .394 .271 .347 .436 0.2 -0.5 4.47 5.84
Heath Hembree .256 .360 .512 .242 .320 .379 0.1 -0.4 4.35 6.24
José Cisnero .263 .372 .450 .236 .317 .396 0.4 -0.7 3.95 6.05
Bryce Tassin .283 .351 .475 .267 .328 .405 0.2 -0.5 4.53 5.70
Angel De Jesus .238 .365 .425 .247 .343 .398 0.1 -0.6 4.51 5.83
Braden Bristo .240 .351 .375 .255 .355 .443 0.2 -0.7 4.47 6.16
Aneurys Zabala .234 .379 .394 .235 .350 .391 0.3 -0.8 4.18 5.80
Layne Henderson .239 .346 .402 .248 .365 .419 0.2 -1.0 4.35 6.38
Dario Gardea .267 .376 .407 .253 .330 .434 0.0 -0.6 4.64 5.77
Sam Clay .227 .338 .364 .284 .373 .466 0.0 -0.8 4.67 6.21
Michael Bienlien .273 .387 .432 .257 .341 .434 0.0 -0.8 4.82 6.04
Yaya Chentouf .304 .402 .519 .239 .324 .380 -0.1 -0.8 4.94 6.45
Chavez Fernander .268 .381 .437 .271 .357 .435 -0.2 -0.7 5.22 6.53
Andrew Magno .227 .363 .318 .248 .372 .434 0.0 -0.9 4.68 6.33
Blair Calvo .271 .377 .448 .243 .351 .396 0.0 -1.0 4.72 6.42

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.


2024 ZiPS Projections: Boston Red Sox

by
November 29, 2023
ZiPS Projections
2024 2023

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Boston Red Sox.

Batters

As last-place teams go, the 2023 Red Sox were a pretty good one. Nobody puts a 78–84 season on their sizzle reel, but they played adequate baseball for most of the season, enough that they hovered two to four games out of a wild card spot for a large chunk of the summer. An 8–19 September suffocated those chances, but Boston still managed to have an 81–81 Pythag record. If the Red Sox played in a Central division, they would have been competitive for even longer. But Boston’s coastline is on the Atlantic Ocean, not a Great Lake, so this is where they compete.

The offense highlights the awkward situation the Sox are in. They may be happy with the value they got for a year of Mookie Betts, but he offers something that the Red Sox don’t have: someone who can go out of their minds for a year and put an 8–9-WAR season on the leaderboard. Rafael Devers is very good, and one of the premier power-hitting third basemen of this generation; ZiPS gives him a final median home run total among his active compatriots at the hot corner (442) that’s behind only Manny Machado. But he’s not a multi-dimensional all-around monster. Nor is Trevor Story going to fill that role, even if he has as juicy a comeback season as ZiPS thinks he will. Triston Casas should be good as well, but the rest of the roster is just “there.” To upgrade on this group, you need to find 3–4-WAR players, and those don’t come cheap. Boston would be better off with a few more sixes and zeroes on the depth chart.

On the plus side, some of the reinforcements may help, with ZiPS finding a lot of interesting possibilities in Boston’s top prospects. Ceddanne Rafaela didn’t hit in his brief debut, but my Total Zone-esque coordinate measurement system had him as the second-best center fielder in the minors, behind only Jorge Barrosa. ZiPS also already has Marcelo Mayer at the two wins-per-600 PA threshold in 2025 and is certainly more into Kyle Teel than Steamer is. But like the main offense, there just isn’t that phenom guy, though Mayer could take a big step up if his shoulder doesn’t give him too much more trouble. This isn’t a great offseason to make big offensive additions via free agency, and given how the Red Sox have been run in recent years, I can’t imagine they’ll go into any rentals.

Pitchers

The story here is similar. The Sox aren’t bad anywhere, but there just isn’t a tremendous amount of upside either. Expecting Chris Sale to channel the old Chris Sale for 160 innings is a big ask, and Brayan Bello looks more like a good number two than an ace for the franchise that had Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez. With Steamer, we have the Red Sox rotation as the middle of the pack, and I don’t think anything ZiPS is saying here will change that. On the good side, there are quite a few above-replacement Plan Bs, Cs, and Ds for the rotation — necessary given the injury history of several of the starters — but nobody with amazingly high potential. And maybe someone like Wikelman Gonzalez will change that, but it’s a little too soon for projections to see that as a median outcome. This is one place I can see the team spending some money this winter.

When Steamer came out, I was a little surprised to see the Red Sox projected as a top-10 bullpen, but ZiPS actually agrees with that. I suspect Garrett Whitlock is likely to stay in the bullpen from here on out — this has not been confirmed as far as I’ve seen one way or the other — and as a full-time reliever, ZiPS sees him with an ERA in the low threes. Chris Martin joined the team in a whisper on a two-year contract last offseason and served as one of the team’s indispensable parachutes, with an ERA just over one. Clocks are a concern given his age, and there’s a clear warning sign in the strikeout rate decline, but he should still put hitters in their place for another season. As veteran relievers go, ZiPS isn’t as confident about Kenley Jansen given his age and some erosion in his peripheral metrics, and I’d like to see the Red Sox slowly transition their closer job to Whitlock if they keep him in relief. The bottom of the ‘pen isn’t exciting, but it’ll get the job done.

The Red Sox look like an 80–86 win team or so. That kind of team can surprise, and with the coins flipping a bit different last year, they could have made a real wild card run. The Orioles, Blue Jays, and Rays are a clear tier above them, though, and when all is said and done by winter’s end, I think the Yankees may be as well. But that last question is a tale for another ZiPS entry.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Rafael Devers L 27 3B 655 586 95 164 38 1 33 107 58 126 4 2
Alex Verdugo L 28 RF 591 536 83 157 36 3 14 65 46 88 4 2
Trevor Story R 31 SS 411 370 54 91 23 2 15 54 33 117 15 3
Justin Turner R 39 1B 514 454 67 128 26 0 15 65 46 90 3 1
Ceddanne Rafaela R 23 CF 557 521 76 136 29 6 15 76 23 133 20 8
Masataka Yoshida L 30 LF 553 501 67 148 29 2 16 74 43 68 5 1
Triston Casas L 24 1B 502 428 67 113 22 2 22 71 69 119 1 1
David Hamilton L 26 SS 496 443 62 104 17 6 9 52 47 121 35 9
Wilyer Abreu L 25 LF 474 414 63 102 20 1 15 60 55 127 9 4
Kyle Teel L 22 C 456 410 51 107 21 1 6 51 42 100 6 2
Jarren Duran L 27 CF 453 415 60 106 25 6 11 54 31 114 21 3
Enmanuel Valdez L 25 2B 457 411 57 104 23 2 16 60 40 109 6 3
Adam Duvall R 35 CF 389 355 48 85 20 2 21 61 26 119 3 1
Nick Sogard B 26 3B 444 394 55 101 19 3 5 43 42 85 10 4
Bobby Dalbec R 29 3B 486 433 57 97 15 3 22 69 42 177 7 1
Eddy Alvarez L 34 2B 264 224 36 57 12 2 6 34 24 69 8 2
Ronaldo Hernández R 26 C 403 372 41 94 22 1 12 55 21 82 1 1
Chase Meidroth R 22 3B 489 422 63 102 17 1 7 53 53 106 7 1
Rob Refsnyder R 33 LF 294 252 38 67 15 1 6 35 33 68 4 1
Roman Anthony L 20 CF 490 431 56 99 23 3 9 53 53 132 7 4
Connor Wong R 28 C 373 346 46 86 21 2 11 43 20 114 6 2
Ryan Fitzgerald L 30 3B 411 372 42 86 23 5 9 48 31 114 5 4
Marcelo Mayer L 21 SS 393 357 43 85 22 2 11 46 31 110 6 3
Reese McGuire L 29 C 250 230 22 61 15 1 2 21 13 56 1 1
Niko Goodrum 구드럼 B 32 1B 321 276 40 65 13 2 7 34 42 90 8 3
Nick Yorke R 22 2B 500 459 59 107 19 4 9 53 34 133 9 4
Mark Contreras L 29 CF 417 380 50 88 21 3 10 53 28 128 13 4
Christian Arroyo R 29 2B 287 266 33 68 17 0 6 32 14 58 2 2
Pablo Reyes R 30 2B 352 319 48 84 19 1 7 39 28 62 8 4
Marcus Wilson R 27 LF 365 320 44 67 16 3 10 43 40 143 10 2
Elih Marrero B 27 C 213 190 22 43 10 1 1 17 21 57 6 4
Yu Chang R 28 SS 256 236 29 56 12 2 7 35 15 70 4 1
Christian Koss R 26 SS 417 390 46 94 16 4 7 46 17 108 9 3
Stephen Scott L 27 C 391 346 47 79 19 1 10 44 41 91 3 1
Niko Kavadas L 25 1B 481 402 49 81 18 0 17 60 68 183 1 1
Corey Rosier L 24 RF 445 402 61 99 18 6 5 49 33 104 25 5
Brainer Bonaci B 21 SS 417 379 47 92 17 2 7 42 34 102 6 3
Max Ferguson L 24 2B 422 370 52 76 15 5 4 34 45 131 16 2
Narciso Crook R 28 LF 362 323 39 69 16 2 9 48 29 128 7 3
Eddinson Paulino L 21 SS 535 490 66 116 30 4 10 59 37 133 13 4
Alex Binelas L 24 1B 378 346 46 74 18 1 13 46 28 137 6 1
Alex Erro B 26 C 301 278 34 67 11 1 3 26 20 64 3 2
Bradley Zimmer L 31 CF 338 294 40 56 9 1 6 33 28 136 13 5
Phillip Sikes R 25 CF 445 401 54 87 22 3 7 48 32 150 18 4
Eduardo Lopez B 22 RF 333 301 37 67 13 1 4 29 27 97 6 2
Matthew Lugo R 23 3B 434 405 48 93 20 3 6 45 20 117 7 4
Tyler McDonough B 25 LF 413 380 45 84 15 5 5 38 27 130 12 4
Caleb Hamilton R 29 C 249 220 22 42 9 1 6 24 27 90 1 1
Nathan Hickey L 24 C 396 350 45 81 20 1 13 50 39 118 1 1
Tyler Dearden L 25 LF 356 318 38 74 14 1 8 39 31 103 0 1
Edwin Díaz R 28 2B 267 245 23 45 10 2 8 29 18 110 1 1
Bryan Gonzalez R 18 2B 119 111 10 23 3 0 1 8 7 39 2 1
Blaze Jordan R 21 1B 549 512 55 135 29 1 12 65 30 99 1 1
Tyler Esplin L 24 1B 222 207 23 44 11 2 1 17 14 65 1 1
Nick Decker L 24 LF 280 251 33 47 13 2 5 29 23 111 4 2
Tyler Miller L 24 1B 399 373 44 86 15 3 8 43 19 120 9 3

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA RC
Rafael Devers 655 .280 .351 .517 131 .237 .307 -6 3.6 .366 108
Alex Verdugo 591 .293 .350 .450 115 .157 .329 3 2.2 .344 86
Trevor Story 411 .246 .314 .441 102 .195 .319 5 2.2 .323 55
Justin Turner 514 .282 .356 .438 114 .156 .324 4 2.0 .346 72
Ceddanne Rafaela 557 .261 .300 .426 94 .165 .324 7 1.9 .312 74
Masataka Yoshida 553 .295 .356 .457 119 .162 .317 -2 1.9 .349 83
Triston Casas 502 .264 .367 .479 127 .215 .317 -4 1.9 .364 76
David Hamilton 496 .235 .312 .361 82 .126 .304 4 1.6 .298 61
Wilyer Abreu 474 .246 .338 .408 101 .162 .320 7 1.5 .327 61
Kyle Teel 456 .261 .336 .361 89 .100 .332 1 1.5 .309 52
Jarren Duran 453 .255 .313 .424 98 .169 .328 0 1.5 .318 61
Enmanuel Valdez 457 .253 .322 .436 103 .182 .308 -2 1.4 .326 60
Adam Duvall 389 .239 .298 .485 107 .245 .298 -2 1.3 .330 52
Nick Sogard 444 .256 .332 .358 88 .102 .316 4 1.1 .306 50
Bobby Dalbec 486 .224 .305 .425 95 .201 .321 -3 1.0 .316 58
Eddy Alvarez 264 .254 .347 .406 104 .152 .342 -1 1.0 .332 34
Ronaldo Hernández 403 .253 .303 .414 92 .161 .295 -2 1.0 .310 47
Chase Meidroth 489 .242 .342 .336 86 .095 .307 0 1.0 .307 50
Rob Refsnyder 294 .266 .358 .405 107 .139 .343 1 0.9 .336 38
Roman Anthony 490 .230 .316 .360 83 .130 .310 3 0.9 .300 52
Connor Wong 373 .249 .296 .416 91 .168 .339 -3 0.8 .307 45
Ryan Fitzgerald 411 .231 .297 .392 85 .161 .309 4 0.8 .298 46
Marcelo Mayer 393 .238 .300 .403 89 .165 .314 -2 0.7 .304 46
Reese McGuire 250 .265 .308 .365 82 .100 .343 3 0.7 .294 26
Niko Goodrum 321 .236 .336 .373 93 .138 .324 5 0.7 .314 38
Nick Yorke 500 .233 .292 .351 74 .118 .309 7 0.6 .282 51
Mark Contreras 417 .232 .295 .382 82 .150 .322 1 0.5 .294 47
Christian Arroyo 287 .256 .301 .387 85 .132 .307 2 0.5 .298 32
Pablo Reyes 352 .263 .325 .395 94 .132 .308 -4 0.5 .314 44
Marcus Wilson 365 .209 .301 .372 82 .163 .341 6 0.5 .297 39
Elih Marrero 213 .226 .305 .305 67 .079 .318 3 0.4 .276 21
Yu Chang 256 .237 .290 .394 83 .157 .308 -2 0.3 .297 28
Christian Koss 417 .241 .282 .356 72 .115 .316 1 0.3 .278 42
Stephen Scott 391 .228 .312 .376 86 .147 .282 -7 0.3 .302 42
Niko Kavadas 481 .201 .326 .373 90 .172 .317 1 0.2 .311 50
Corey Rosier 445 .246 .308 .358 80 .112 .321 2 0.1 .293 51
Brainer Bonaci 417 .243 .305 .354 78 .111 .315 -4 0.1 .290 43
Max Ferguson 422 .205 .295 .305 64 .100 .306 1 -0.1 .271 37
Narciso Crook 362 .214 .296 .359 77 .146 .323 3 -0.1 .290 37
Eddinson Paulino 535 .237 .295 .376 81 .139 .305 -10 -0.1 .293 59
Alex Binelas 378 .214 .275 .384 76 .171 .311 5 -0.2 .286 38
Alex Erro 301 .241 .292 .320 66 .079 .303 -2 -0.2 .272 27
Bradley Zimmer 338 .190 .290 .289 58 .099 .329 2 -0.3 .264 29
Phillip Sikes 445 .217 .285 .339 69 .122 .328 -3 -0.4 .276 44
Eduardo Lopez 333 .223 .288 .312 63 .090 .315 5 -0.4 .268 29
Matthew Lugo 434 .230 .273 .338 65 .109 .309 2 -0.4 .267 40
Tyler McDonough 413 .221 .277 .326 63 .105 .322 7 -0.5 .265 38
Caleb Hamilton 249 .191 .281 .323 64 .132 .290 -5 -0.5 .270 21
Nathan Hickey 396 .231 .313 .406 93 .174 .311 -19 -0.5 .313 45
Tyler Dearden 356 .233 .307 .358 80 .126 .319 -3 -0.6 .294 35
Edwin (II) Diaz 267 .184 .247 .339 57 .155 .291 0 -0.6 .256 21
Bryan Gonzalez 119 .207 .261 .261 43 .054 .310 -3 -0.7 .236 8
Blaze Jordan 549 .264 .308 .395 89 .131 .307 -6 -0.8 .304 63
Tyler Esplin 222 .213 .266 .300 53 .087 .305 2 -0.9 .251 17
Nick Decker 280 .187 .268 .315 58 .127 .311 0 -1.0 .260 23
Tyler Miller 399 .231 .273 .351 68 .121 .318 0 -1.1 .272 39

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Rafael Devers Kyle Seager Willie Jones Richie Hebner
Alex Verdugo Norm Larker Lloyd Waner Whitey Lockman
Trevor Story Pat Kelly Juan Samuel Niko Goodrum
Justin Turner Paul Konerko Pedro Guerrero Charlie Grimm
Ceddanne Rafaela Ivan Calderon Corey Patterson Glenn Burke
Masataka Yoshida Manny Jimenez Rip Radcliff Melky Cabrera
Triston Casas Boog Powell Craig Kusick Mike Epstein
David Hamilton Andy Fox Scott Earl Ricky Gutierrez
Wilyer Abreu Andy Van Slyke Rusty Torres Johnny Lewis
Kyle Teel Jack Hiatt Al Lopez Gene Dusan
Jarren Duran Mark Little Scott Cousins Jason Repko
Enmanuel Valdez Jim Gantner James Christensen Fran Mullins
Adam Duvall Bill Renna Ray Sadler Alfonso Soriano
Nick Sogard Sergio Ferrer Larry Huff Torre Tyson
Bobby Dalbec Lee Elia Billy Myers Tom Dodd
Eddy Alvarez Chris Clapinski Shawn Gilbert Jace Peterson
Ronaldo Hernández Josh Phegley Jim Price Damon Berryhill
Chase Meidroth Bob Juday Kevin Seitzer Roger Holt
Rob Refsnyder Gene Hermanski Dave Stegman Tim Hendryx
Roman Anthony Aaron Hicks Brian Goodwin Karl Rhodes
Connor Wong John Hester Jim Command Darrell Miller
Ryan Fitzgerald Chris Basak Scott Pratt Jeff Moronko
Marcelo Mayer Ramon German Sammy Esposito Brian Burgamy
Reese McGuire Bryan Holaday John Sevcik Jacob Stallings
Niko Goodrum Jason McDonald Ryan Langerhans Joe Christopher
Nick Yorke Manny Francois Ramon Bautista Dave Orndorff
Mark Contreras Clete Thomas Colin Porter Nic Jackson
Christian Arroyo Ryan Brett Jeff Richardson Lipso Nava
Pablo Reyes Jeff Huson Jordany Valdespin Eddy Garabito
Marcus Wilson Skip Kiil Brett Jackson Willie Argo
Elih Marrero Mike Napoli Dennis Pelfrey Chris O’Dowd
Yu Chang Benji Gil Juan Silverio Ryan Mount
Christian Koss Leo Vargas Tony Beasley Charlie Benson
Stephen Scott JD Closser Adam Melhuse Greg Mahlberg
Niko Kavadas Josh Ockimey Matt Skole Ryan Noda
Corey Rosier William Ray Alejandro De Aza Tom Goodwin
Brainer Bonaci Chris Pittaro Justin Bohn Marcus Lemon
Max Ferguson R.D. Long Jason McDonald Anderson Machado
Narciso Crook Chad Hermansen Willie Argo Mike Kelly
Eddinson Paulino Ian Desmond Ehire Adrianza Osvaldo Abreu
Alex Binelas Derek Jones Todd Dunn Jake Adams
Alex Erro Phil Avlas John Wilson Johnny Hawkins
Bradley Zimmer Lorenzo Scott Chris Powell Tyrone Pendergrass
Phillip Sikes Todd Samples Juan Tolentino Tony Fisher
Eduardo Lopez Mark Simmons Tarrence Patterson Wang-Wei Lin
Matthew Lugo Jeff Eure Bobby Marshall Frank Garnett
Tyler McDonough Rashad Crawford Robbie Garvey Thomas Milone
Caleb Hamilton Buddy Pryor Rick Colbert John Stefero
Nathan Hickey Mike Martin Alex Avila Pete Varney
Tyler Dearden Jeff Baldwin Brad Downing Curt Reed
Edwin (II) Diaz Tom Epperly Bryan Britt Chris Maples
Bryan Gonzalez Lance Hudson Willis Whitehurst George Goodrich
Blaze Jordan Gerald Orlandini Carlos Rivera Fred Hopke
Tyler Esplin Brian Hertel Ryan Davis Jose Medina
Nick Decker Drew Rundle Jesus Hernandez Lute Johnson
Tyler Miller Alonzo Harris Jeremy Jackson Aaron Harvey

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Rafael Devers .305 .375 .573 150 5.1 .256 .324 .460 111 2.1
Alex Verdugo .322 .377 .503 136 3.8 .264 .323 .402 96 0.9
Trevor Story .271 .340 .493 124 3.3 .218 .289 .379 82 1.2
Justin Turner .309 .384 .488 132 3.1 .250 .324 .384 92 0.7
Ceddanne Rafaela .287 .325 .481 113 3.2 .235 .275 .377 74 0.5
Masataka Yoshida .323 .385 .508 139 3.3 .264 .326 .404 98 0.5
Triston Casas .293 .395 .541 150 3.2 .237 .338 .412 106 0.6
David Hamilton .263 .341 .411 102 2.8 .209 .289 .320 66 0.5
Wilyer Abreu .273 .363 .469 121 2.7 .219 .310 .362 84 0.5
Kyle Teel .294 .362 .407 107 2.4 .231 .300 .317 69 0.2
Jarren Duran .281 .336 .482 116 2.6 .226 .280 .374 76 0.3
Enmanuel Valdez .281 .347 .492 122 2.5 .227 .295 .390 83 0.3
Adam Duvall .266 .323 .552 130 2.4 .211 .271 .415 86 0.2
Nick Sogard .283 .360 .403 106 2.0 .232 .305 .318 71 0.1
Bobby Dalbec .251 .331 .489 116 2.3 .197 .282 .370 76 -0.1
Eddy Alvarez .284 .376 .466 125 1.7 .226 .319 .352 82 0.3
Ronaldo Hernández .289 .335 .481 117 2.3 .224 .276 .364 73 0.1
Chase Meidroth .267 .366 .379 102 1.9 .212 .315 .300 69 0.0
Rob Refsnyder .298 .392 .457 127 1.6 .234 .328 .355 86 0.2
Roman Anthony .260 .345 .416 105 2.1 .200 .289 .303 63 -0.3
Connor Wong .277 .327 .474 110 1.7 .220 .267 .358 67 -0.3
Ryan Fitzgerald .263 .331 .454 109 1.9 .204 .268 .343 66 -0.3
Marcelo Mayer .272 .337 .464 115 2.0 .213 .272 .356 70 -0.2
Reese McGuire .303 .347 .420 106 1.5 .234 .280 .318 63 0.1
Niko Goodrum .262 .365 .419 110 1.4 .207 .300 .323 71 -0.1
Nick Yorke .263 .321 .399 93 1.7 .207 .270 .308 57 -0.5
Mark Contreras .262 .324 .438 103 1.7 .204 .260 .334 60 -0.5
Christian Arroyo .286 .334 .442 105 1.2 .224 .274 .334 61 -0.3
Pablo Reyes .294 .358 .445 113 1.3 .233 .297 .344 73 -0.4
Marcus Wilson .234 .329 .428 102 1.3 .178 .271 .315 59 -0.5
Elih Marrero .256 .345 .344 88 0.9 .192 .275 .257 46 -0.2
Yu Chang .271 .318 .453 106 1.1 .212 .264 .341 64 -0.3
Christian Koss .271 .308 .409 92 1.3 .214 .252 .307 53 -0.7
Stephen Scott .261 .342 .433 108 1.4 .201 .278 .322 66 -0.7
Niko Kavadas .232 .355 .429 108 1.2 .169 .293 .317 65 -1.2
Corey Rosier .273 .331 .409 97 1.0 .222 .281 .321 64 -0.8
Brainer Bonaci .269 .331 .407 97 1.0 .216 .280 .307 59 -0.8
Max Ferguson .237 .326 .352 84 0.9 .176 .268 .263 44 -1.1
Narciso Crook .243 .324 .416 97 0.8 .186 .267 .313 57 -0.9
Eddinson Paulino .269 .327 .432 102 1.3 .210 .268 .332 64 -1.2
Alex Binelas .246 .304 .428 96 0.7 .186 .246 .323 56 -1.2
Alex Erro .274 .329 .365 88 0.7 .206 .261 .280 48 -0.9
Bradley Zimmer .224 .322 .347 82 0.6 .161 .258 .245 39 -1.2
Phillip Sikes .244 .309 .386 88 0.6 .187 .258 .298 52 -1.4
Eduardo Lopez .253 .318 .357 84 0.4 .195 .263 .268 47 -1.1
Matthew Lugo .253 .298 .379 81 0.4 .201 .246 .292 46 -1.5
Tyler McDonough .253 .308 .371 82 0.6 .195 .253 .280 46 -1.3
Caleb Hamilton .226 .317 .387 87 0.2 .163 .247 .272 43 -1.1
Nathan Hickey .262 .343 .465 116 0.5 .197 .280 .351 69 -1.6
Tyler Dearden .258 .332 .407 98 0.2 .204 .278 .310 62 -1.4
Edwin (II) Diaz .216 .277 .417 83 0.2 .154 .217 .288 37 -1.3
Bryan Gonzalez .246 .298 .305 66 -0.4 .175 .234 .227 27 -0.9
Blaze Jordan .290 .337 .448 108 0.5 .233 .278 .344 68 -2.2
Tyler Esplin .244 .299 .343 74 -0.3 .182 .236 .249 35 -1.4
Nick Decker .216 .299 .365 78 -0.3 .156 .240 .261 36 -1.7
Tyler Miller .263 .301 .404 87 -0.2 .207 .248 .305 49 -2.0

Batters – Projected Splits
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
Rafael Devers .269 .338 .463 .285 .357 .540
Alex Verdugo .277 .335 .406 .299 .356 .467
Trevor Story .256 .328 .470 .241 .307 .427
Justin Turner .276 .353 .434 .285 .358 .440
Ceddanne Rafaela .260 .299 .433 .262 .301 .422
Masataka Yoshida .279 .344 .434 .301 .361 .466
Triston Casas .250 .352 .441 .271 .373 .497
David Hamilton .228 .303 .349 .238 .316 .367
Wilyer Abreu .233 .319 .377 .254 .347 .425
Kyle Teel .252 .323 .348 .264 .340 .366
Jarren Duran .246 .309 .397 .260 .315 .436
Enmanuel Valdez .245 .310 .406 .258 .329 .453
Adam Duvall .245 .306 .491 .237 .295 .482
Nick Sogard .262 .343 .362 .253 .325 .355
Bobby Dalbec .236 .319 .435 .217 .296 .419
Eddy Alvarez .243 .341 .400 .260 .350 .409
Ronaldo Hernández .261 .310 .429 .246 .297 .403
Chase Meidroth .252 .357 .348 .236 .332 .330
Rob Refsnyder .274 .381 .427 .259 .338 .385
Roman Anthony .216 .302 .333 .234 .321 .369
Connor Wong .248 .301 .428 .249 .293 .408
Ryan Fitzgerald .221 .290 .371 .237 .301 .405
Marcelo Mayer .238 .302 .400 .238 .300 .405
Reese McGuire .246 .295 .298 .272 .312 .387
Niko Goodrum .259 .360 .400 .225 .326 .361
Nick Yorke .235 .295 .350 .232 .290 .351
Mark Contreras .219 .286 .342 .239 .301 .406
Christian Arroyo .260 .304 .385 .253 .299 .389
Pablo Reyes .275 .342 .437 .254 .311 .362
Marcus Wilson .219 .320 .393 .197 .277 .345
Elih Marrero .221 .302 .273 .230 .307 .327
Yu Chang .242 .299 .404 .234 .284 .387
Christian Koss .243 .286 .358 .240 .278 .355
Stephen Scott .227 .306 .364 .229 .315 .381
Niko Kavadas .192 .315 .358 .206 .331 .379
Corey Rosier .232 .297 .328 .253 .313 .372
Brainer Bonaci .241 .305 .365 .244 .305 .347
Max Ferguson .198 .285 .289 .209 .300 .313
Narciso Crook .217 .304 .362 .211 .288 .357
Eddinson Paulino .225 .284 .359 .241 .300 .382
Alex Binelas .206 .268 .343 .217 .278 .402
Alex Erro .235 .283 .306 .244 .297 .328
Bradley Zimmer .190 .293 .253 .191 .289 .302
Phillip Sikes .226 .301 .368 .211 .276 .321
Eduardo Lopez .216 .283 .284 .226 .291 .327
Matthew Lugo .234 .278 .360 .226 .268 .322
Tyler McDonough .217 .278 .326 .223 .276 .326
Caleb Hamilton .198 .298 .349 .184 .266 .298
Nathan Hickey .222 .297 .364 .235 .319 .422
Tyler Dearden .223 .302 .320 .237 .310 .377
Edwin (II) Diaz .179 .250 .321 .187 .245 .353
Bryan Gonzalez .217 .265 .239 .200 .257 .277
Blaze Jordan .276 .325 .398 .256 .297 .392
Tyler Esplin .209 .264 .284 .214 .267 .307
Nick Decker .173 .262 .280 .193 .270 .330
Tyler Miller .217 .263 .330 .236 .277 .360

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Brayan Bello R 25 11 11 4.28 28 27 147.3 154 70 16 54 134
Garrett Whitlock R 28 6 4 3.73 30 12 89.3 86 37 11 19 94
Nick Pivetta R 31 8 9 4.55 32 20 132.7 123 67 21 49 138
Chris Sale L 35 5 5 4.30 18 18 90.0 85 43 13 29 106
Kutter Crawford R 28 6 6 4.49 26 19 106.3 104 53 15 33 103
Josh Winckowski R 26 6 5 4.36 43 12 99.0 102 48 12 33 90
Isaac Coffey R 24 8 8 4.61 22 21 109.3 112 56 16 33 94
Tanner Houck R 28 7 7 4.62 25 21 103.3 100 53 14 39 107
James Paxton L 35 7 9 4.78 23 22 107.3 113 57 17 45 112
Brian Van Belle R 27 6 9 4.94 24 22 118.3 136 65 18 33 82
Victor Santos R 23 6 7 4.93 22 18 107.7 117 59 14 33 75
Brandon Walter L 27 4 4 4.72 27 16 103.0 111 54 13 32 82
Hunter Dobbins R 24 6 7 4.79 20 19 97.7 108 52 13 31 73
Grant Gambrell R 26 6 7 5.12 20 20 103.7 115 59 16 39 77
Wikelman Gonzalez R 22 6 7 5.16 25 25 104.7 100 60 14 66 107
Shane Drohan L 25 6 9 5.20 24 23 107.3 116 62 15 55 88
Chris Murphy L 26 5 5 5.04 29 14 103.7 108 58 14 49 88
Angel Bastardo R 22 4 5 5.19 23 23 102.3 109 59 15 53 85
Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 26 4 6 5.16 19 14 82.0 94 47 13 26 62
Justin Hagenman R 27 3 4 4.57 38 4 69.0 73 35 9 21 61
Corey Kluber R 38 5 7 5.26 21 17 87.3 100 51 14 26 75
Chih-Jung Liu R 25 5 8 5.31 23 21 95.0 102 56 15 47 81
John Schreiber R 30 3 2 4.24 52 2 57.3 54 27 7 23 61
Matt Dermody L 33 3 3 4.92 13 10 56.7 64 31 8 16 42
Chris Martin R 38 3 2 3.95 49 0 43.3 48 19 6 8 40
Kenley Jansen R 36 4 3 4.17 49 0 45.3 41 21 7 17 52
Nick Robertson R 25 3 2 4.21 45 1 51.3 50 24 6 18 54
Mauricio Llovera R 28 1 2 4.58 26 4 37.3 36 19 5 13 38
Isaiah Campbell R 26 5 4 4.21 44 1 47.0 46 22 6 18 45
Brennan Bernardino L 32 1 2 4.57 47 5 45.3 45 23 6 19 46
Jacob Webb R 30 3 3 4.30 59 1 60.7 54 29 8 24 67
Rio Gomez L 29 2 4 5.34 25 10 64.0 69 38 10 32 57
Ryan Fernandez R 26 4 4 4.32 37 0 50.0 52 24 7 16 46
Chase Shugart R 27 3 5 5.26 33 8 63.3 74 37 9 23 42
Sterling Sharp R 29 3 5 5.64 19 16 75.0 90 47 11 36 45
Bryan Mata R 25 3 5 5.60 18 15 62.7 64 39 9 40 57
Frank German R 26 2 4 5.29 28 7 51.0 52 30 7 26 48
Alex Hoppe R 25 3 4 4.60 42 0 47.0 50 24 6 17 40
Taylor Broadway R 27 2 2 4.81 32 1 43.0 46 23 6 16 35
Norwith Gudiño R 28 3 5 5.53 24 7 53.7 61 33 8 27 38
Joely Rodríguez L 32 1 2 4.73 36 0 32.3 35 17 4 14 34
Andrew Politi R 28 4 6 5.06 43 3 58.7 61 33 8 27 52
Brendan Nail L 28 2 4 5.32 33 3 45.7 48 27 6 22 39
Zack Kelly R 29 3 3 5.18 34 2 41.7 41 24 6 24 42
Oddanier Mosqueda L 25 3 4 5.14 44 2 56.0 55 32 8 30 55
Zack Weiss R 32 2 2 5.10 36 0 42.3 42 24 6 23 47
Ryan Miller R 28 3 4 5.14 34 1 49.0 54 28 7 19 40
Dinelson Lamet R 31 2 2 5.54 22 4 37.3 37 23 6 20 43
Teddy Stankiewicz R 30 3 5 6.04 17 14 70.0 86 47 11 34 37
Joe Jacques L 29 2 4 5.26 46 2 53.0 58 31 7 21 42
Ryan Zeferjahn R 26 2 4 5.66 30 5 47.7 49 30 7 30 45
Christopher Troye R 25 1 1 5.15 36 0 43.7 39 25 6 33 53
Cam Booser L 32 2 4 5.16 39 0 45.3 48 26 7 24 41
Andrés Núñez R 28 3 4 5.37 41 1 52.0 56 31 7 23 41
Kyle Barraclough R 34 3 5 5.87 21 7 53.7 57 35 9 35 45
Jake Faria R 30 2 2 6.08 20 8 53.3 62 36 9 31 42
Robert Kwiatkowski R 27 1 2 5.51 31 2 50.7 61 31 8 19 27
Justin Garza R 30 2 3 5.76 37 3 50.0 53 32 8 29 45
Theo Denlinger R 27 2 4 5.49 34 0 41.0 43 25 6 25 38
Dylan Spacke R 26 1 3 5.90 29 2 50.3 58 33 7 27 34
Brendan Cellucci L 26 1 3 5.94 36 2 47.0 50 31 7 35 44
Wyatt Olds R 24 3 7 6.33 25 15 69.7 73 49 10 48 58
Skylar Arias L 27 1 2 6.59 21 1 27.3 26 20 4 23 30
Cody Scroggins R 27 1 2 6.27 27 0 33.0 37 23 5 21 24
Jorge Benitez L 25 2 4 5.94 37 0 50.0 52 33 8 36 48

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Brayan Bello 147.3 8.2 3.3 1.0 8.4% 20.8% .317 104 4.03 96 2.2
Garrett Whitlock 89.3 9.5 1.9 1.1 5.1% 25.4% .309 119 3.49 84 1.9
Nick Pivetta 132.7 9.4 3.3 1.4 8.6% 24.3% .289 98 4.45 103 1.7
Chris Sale 90.0 10.6 2.9 1.3 7.7% 28.0% .313 103 3.98 97 1.4
Kutter Crawford 106.3 8.7 2.8 1.3 7.3% 22.8% .299 99 4.20 101 1.4
Josh Winckowski 99.0 8.2 3.0 1.1 7.7% 21.1% .310 102 4.10 98 1.4
Isaac Coffey 109.3 7.7 2.7 1.3 7.0% 20.0% .298 96 4.59 104 1.3
Tanner Houck 103.3 9.3 3.4 1.2 8.8% 24.0% .305 96 4.34 104 1.3
James Paxton 107.3 9.4 3.8 1.4 9.4% 23.4% .321 93 4.54 108 1.1
Brian Van Belle 118.3 6.2 2.5 1.4 6.3% 15.7% .309 90 4.78 112 1.1
Victor Santos 107.7 6.3 2.8 1.2 7.1% 16.1% .300 90 4.61 111 1.1
Brandon Walter 103.0 7.2 2.8 1.1 7.1% 18.3% .309 94 4.44 106 1.0
Hunter Dobbins 97.7 6.7 2.9 1.2 7.2% 17.0% .308 92 4.60 108 1.0
Grant Gambrell 103.7 6.7 3.4 1.4 8.5% 16.7% .305 87 5.05 116 0.8
Wikelman Gonzalez 104.7 9.2 5.7 1.2 13.6% 22.1% .301 86 4.96 116 0.8
Shane Drohan 107.3 7.4 4.6 1.3 11.2% 17.9% .309 85 5.08 117 0.8
Chris Murphy 103.7 7.6 4.3 1.2 10.6% 19.0% .304 88 4.90 114 0.7
Angel Bastardo 102.3 7.5 4.7 1.3 11.2% 17.9% .305 85 5.14 117 0.7
Yusniel Padron-Artiles 82.0 6.8 2.9 1.4 7.2% 17.2% .313 86 4.86 116 0.6
Justin Hagenman 69.0 8.0 2.7 1.2 7.0% 20.5% .312 97 4.18 103 0.6
Corey Kluber 87.3 7.7 2.7 1.4 6.8% 19.5% .322 84 4.76 119 0.5
Chih-Jung Liu 95.0 7.7 4.5 1.4 10.8% 18.6% .306 84 5.24 120 0.5
John Schreiber 57.3 9.6 3.6 1.1 9.3% 24.7% .305 105 4.07 96 0.5
Matt Dermody 56.7 6.7 2.5 1.3 6.5% 17.0% .311 90 4.72 111 0.5
Chris Martin 43.3 8.3 1.7 1.2 4.3% 21.6% .326 112 3.83 89 0.5
Kenley Jansen 45.3 10.3 3.4 1.4 8.8% 26.9% .296 106 4.23 94 0.5
Nick Robertson 51.3 9.5 3.2 1.1 8.1% 24.2% .312 105 3.84 95 0.4
Mauricio Llovera 37.3 9.2 3.1 1.2 8.1% 23.8% .304 97 4.25 103 0.4
Isaiah Campbell 47.0 8.6 3.4 1.1 8.7% 21.8% .301 105 4.28 95 0.4
Brennan Bernardino 45.3 9.1 3.8 1.2 9.5% 23.1% .310 97 4.53 103 0.3
Jacob Webb 60.7 9.9 3.6 1.2 9.3% 25.9% .293 95 4.10 105 0.2
Rio Gomez 64.0 8.0 4.5 1.4 11.0% 19.5% .312 83 5.19 121 0.3
Ryan Fernandez 50.0 8.3 2.9 1.3 7.4% 21.4% .310 103 4.26 97 0.3
Chase Shugart 63.3 6.0 3.3 1.3 8.0% 14.7% .313 84 5.01 119 0.2
Sterling Sharp 75.0 5.4 4.3 1.3 10.3% 12.9% .312 79 5.56 127 0.2
Bryan Mata 62.7 8.2 5.7 1.3 13.7% 19.5% .302 79 5.51 126 0.2
Frank German 51.0 8.5 4.6 1.2 11.2% 20.6% .308 84 4.86 119 0.2
Alex Hoppe 47.0 7.7 3.3 1.1 8.2% 19.2% .310 96 4.36 104 0.1
Taylor Broadway 43.0 7.3 3.3 1.3 8.2% 17.9% .305 92 4.56 109 0.1
Norwith Gudiño 53.7 6.4 4.5 1.3 10.8% 15.3% .308 80 5.40 125 0.1
Joely Rodríguez 32.3 9.5 3.9 1.1 9.7% 23.4% .337 94 4.06 107 0.1
Andrew Politi 58.7 8.0 4.1 1.2 10.2% 19.7% .306 88 4.84 114 0.1
Brendan Nail 45.7 7.7 4.3 1.2 10.7% 18.9% .307 83 4.96 120 0.0
Zack Kelly 41.7 9.1 5.2 1.3 12.6% 22.0% .304 85 5.13 117 0.0
Oddanier Mosqueda 56.0 8.8 4.8 1.3 12.0% 21.9% .301 86 5.13 116 0.0
Zack Weiss 42.3 10.0 4.9 1.3 12.0% 24.5% .319 87 4.65 115 0.0
Ryan Miller 49.0 7.3 3.5 1.3 8.7% 18.3% .313 86 4.89 116 0.0
Dinelson Lamet 37.3 10.4 4.8 1.4 11.7% 25.1% .316 80 4.81 125 -0.1
Teddy Stankiewicz 70.0 4.8 4.4 1.4 10.4% 11.3% .310 73 5.83 136 -0.1
Joe Jacques 53.0 7.1 3.6 1.2 8.9% 17.8% .311 84 5.03 119 -0.1
Ryan Zeferjahn 47.7 8.5 5.7 1.3 13.4% 20.1% .307 78 5.48 128 -0.1
Christopher Troye 43.7 10.9 6.8 1.2 15.9% 25.6% .306 86 5.02 116 -0.1
Cam Booser 45.3 8.1 4.8 1.4 11.4% 19.5% .308 86 5.11 116 -0.1
Andrés Núñez 52.0 7.1 4.0 1.2 9.8% 17.5% .306 83 5.16 121 -0.1
Kyle Barraclough 53.7 7.5 5.9 1.5 13.8% 17.7% .300 76 5.94 132 -0.1
Jake Faria 53.3 7.1 5.2 1.5 12.2% 16.5% .317 73 5.84 137 -0.1
Robert Kwiatkowski 50.7 4.8 3.4 1.4 8.2% 11.6% .305 80 5.54 124 -0.2
Justin Garza 50.0 8.1 5.2 1.4 12.6% 19.6% .308 77 5.46 130 -0.2
Theo Denlinger 41.0 8.3 5.5 1.3 13.0% 19.8% .311 81 5.35 124 -0.2
Dylan Spacke 50.3 6.1 4.8 1.3 11.5% 14.5% .311 75 5.62 133 -0.3
Brendan Cellucci 47.0 8.4 6.7 1.3 15.2% 19.1% .314 75 5.74 134 -0.3
Wyatt Olds 69.7 7.5 6.2 1.3 14.3% 17.3% .301 70 6.21 143 -0.4
Skylar Arias 27.3 9.9 7.6 1.3 17.3% 22.6% .306 67 6.26 149 -0.4
Cody Scroggins 33.0 6.5 5.7 1.4 13.4% 15.3% .308 71 6.13 142 -0.4
Jorge Benitez 50.0 8.6 6.5 1.4 15.0% 20.0% .308 75 5.94 134 -0.5

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
Brayan Bello Shelby Miller Wily Peralta Jon Gray
Garrett Whitlock Doug Bird Bryn Smith Dutch Ulrich
Nick Pivetta Red Ruffing Howard Ehmke Robert Person
Chris Sale Teddy Higuera David Price Joe Nuxhall
Kutter Crawford Si Johnson Tom Bradley Bruce Kison
Josh Winckowski Adrian Houser Fred Beene Juan Dominguez
Isaac Coffey Taijuan Walker Henderson Alvarez Luis Cessa
Tanner Houck Pete Smith Bill Bevens Tommy Greene
James Paxton Jerry Koosman Juan Pizarro Gary Peters
Brian Van Belle Kyle Kendrick Jim Bagby Marcos Lopez
Victor Santos Taylor Clarke Jose Bautista Bill Fultz
Brandon Walter Niles Jordan Rick Honeycutt Horacio Estrada 에스트라다
Hunter Dobbins Henderson Alvarez Erasmo Ramirez Luis Cessa
Grant Gambrell Anthony Ranaudo 레나도 Cody Anderson Felipe Lira
Wikelman Gonzalez Gary Kanwisher Scott Scudder Dick Hughes
Shane Drohan Shawn Morimando Dave Owen Mike Connolly
Chris Murphy Fabio Castro Jalen Beeks Joe Kraemer
Angel Bastardo Jack Jenkins Mike James Carlos Carrasco
Yusniel Padron-Artiles D.J. Brown Mike McCarthy Greg LaFever
Justin Hagenman Matt Rusch Luis Andujar Joe Tully
Corey Kluber Shane Reynolds Andy Ashby Cal McLish
Chih-Jung Liu Isauro Pineda Grayson Long Scott Arnold
John Schreiber Mike Perez Will Harris Scott Linebrink
Matt Dermody Jack Kralick Hal Newhouser Jason Jacome
Chris Martin Doug Jones LaTroy Hawkins Warren Hacker
Kenley Jansen Santiago Casilla Dave Veres Joaquin Benoit
Nick Robertson George Frazier Pete Hamner Dario Veras 베라스
Mauricio Llovera Pete Ladd Casey Fien Joel Peralta
Isaiah Campbell Jim Donohue Warner Madrigal Heath Hembree
Brennan Bernardino Rich Rodriguez Craig Breslow Fernando Abad
Jacob Webb Mace Brown Cliff Politte Tom Sturdivant
Rio Gomez Brian Johnson Brian Tallet Jake Woods
Ryan Fernandez Juan Carlos Oviedo Santos Hernandez Fred Rath
Chase Shugart Ted Sadowski Mark Lockenmeyer Brian Smith
Sterling Sharp Ryan Glynn 라이언 Logan Bawcom Juan Carlos Sulbaran
Bryan Mata Bill Faul John Burke Gerald Herron
Frank German Pete Andrelczyk Johnny Barbato Andrew Bellatti
Alex Hoppe Matt Stites Drew Smith Erik Stiller
Taylor Broadway Ed Bauta Chuck Dale Pete Parise
Norwith Gudiño Bill Abernathie Les Webber Paul Patterson
Joely Rodríguez Jim Poole Jack O’Connor Fred Scherman
Andrew Politi Howie Judson Kane Davis 데이비스 Rick Bauer 바우어
Brendan Nail Cookie Cuccurullo Kevin Hickey Bob Macdonald
Zack Kelly Larry Sherry Bob Humphreys Alan Mills
Oddanier Mosqueda Chubby Dean C.J. Riefenhauser Eury De La Rosa
Zack Weiss Mark Corey Brandon Medders Louis Coleman
Ryan Miller Paul Phillips Jason Creasy Andrew Robinson
Dinelson Lamet John Purdin Larry Sherry Ron Davis
Teddy Stankiewicz Jorge De Paula Mikey O’Brien Shane Komine
Joe Jacques Kevin Hickey Russ Swan Jack Spring
Ryan Zeferjahn Corey Copping Ryan Garton Barry Manuel
Christopher Troye Jhan Marinez Wilmer Font 폰트 Tommy Kahnle
Cam Booser Edgar Huerta John Curtis Tommy Hottovy
Andrés Núñez Chuck Seelbach Bob Miller Mark Dewey
Kyle Barraclough Roy Parmelee Joe Coleman Ray Moore
Jake Faria Bryan Mitchell Thomas Lakos Brian Stokes
Robert Kwiatkowski Rich Humphrey Edwin Almonte Justin Souza
Justin Garza Victor Marte Josh Zeid Andre Rienzo
Theo Denlinger Joe Kerrigan Brian Drahman Jeff Nelson
Dylan Spacke Jaime Bluma Jacob Lemoine Mark Peterson
Brendan Cellucci Ryne Slack Gary Hart Russ Rohlicek
Wyatt Olds Roric Harrison Brian Innis Jim Olson
Skylar Arias Larry Heise Gabby Rodriguez Bill White
Cody Scroggins Marcel Lachemann Mike Heinen John Ogiltree
Jorge Benitez Scott Neal Jose Fernandez Matt Marksberry

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Brayan Bello .269 .333 .459 .258 .321 .365 3.1 1.1 3.81 5.00
Garrett Whitlock .256 .299 .423 .240 .282 .385 2.6 1.1 3.02 4.61
Nick Pivetta .237 .316 .411 .243 .306 .427 2.6 0.7 3.93 5.22
Chris Sale .222 .291 .306 .249 .318 .444 2.0 0.5 3.62 5.52
Kutter Crawford .254 .332 .454 .247 .290 .390 2.0 0.7 3.96 5.18
Josh Winckowski .274 .335 .430 .249 .308 .404 2.1 0.6 3.74 5.08
Isaac Coffey .253 .320 .414 .265 .326 .449 2.0 0.6 4.05 5.31
Tanner Houck .258 .346 .458 .239 .308 .371 2.1 0.5 3.90 5.46
James Paxton .300 .373 .422 .254 .324 .453 1.8 0.1 4.10 5.80
Brian Van Belle .283 .338 .470 .281 .325 .460 1.8 0.5 4.37 5.42
Victor Santos .255 .313 .425 .286 .340 .450 1.6 0.4 4.44 5.64
Brandon Walter .242 .313 .348 .282 .339 .468 1.5 0.3 4.24 5.44
Hunter Dobbins .284 .347 .437 .265 .320 .441 1.5 0.4 4.31 5.40
Grant Gambrell .279 .343 .474 .272 .341 .443 1.4 0.2 4.57 5.68
Wikelman Gonzalez .270 .376 .454 .225 .336 .374 1.5 -0.1 4.55 5.87
Shane Drohan .306 .383 .460 .255 .345 .438 1.4 0.1 4.65 5.82
Chris Murphy .233 .331 .333 .275 .355 .467 1.3 -0.1 4.52 5.87
Angel Bastardo .258 .349 .467 .274 .357 .425 1.2 0.0 4.72 5.76
Yusniel Padron-Artiles .275 .331 .450 .286 .340 .486 1.1 0.1 4.58 5.85
Justin Hagenman .269 .333 .462 .263 .310 .410 1.1 0.0 3.82 5.43
Corey Kluber .291 .359 .497 .271 .320 .442 1.1 -0.1 4.53 6.18
Chih-Jung Liu .293 .393 .497 .249 .322 .418 1.1 -0.2 4.79 6.00
John Schreiber .257 .339 .426 .231 .304 .372 1.1 0.0 3.41 5.22
Matt Dermody .260 .326 .416 .288 .341 .464 0.8 0.2 4.36 5.51
Chris Martin .256 .301 .423 .289 .314 .464 0.9 0.0 3.04 5.26
Kenley Jansen .262 .333 .429 .211 .287 .400 1.1 -0.2 3.11 5.59
Nick Robertson .247 .319 .400 .250 .313 .397 0.9 -0.1 3.34 5.24
Mauricio Llovera .258 .347 .439 .241 .299 .392 0.7 0.0 3.74 5.60
Isaiah Campbell .247 .333 .435 .253 .312 .384 0.7 0.0 3.61 5.06
Brennan Bernardino .232 .317 .321 .262 .350 .459 0.8 -0.2 3.75 5.59
Jacob Webb .225 .316 .373 .238 .306 .408 0.8 -0.6 3.53 5.46
Rio Gomez .260 .348 .377 .274 .361 .480 0.7 -0.3 4.75 6.23
Ryan Fernandez .261 .327 .455 .264 .311 .418 0.7 -0.2 3.59 5.29
Chase Shugart .276 .343 .423 .294 .353 .500 0.6 -0.2 4.70 5.99
Sterling Sharp .313 .392 .513 .270 .348 .434 0.6 -0.2 5.13 6.23
Bryan Mata .265 .392 .436 .252 .353 .420 0.6 -0.3 5.10 6.38
Frank German .258 .352 .409 .259 .347 .444 0.6 -0.2 4.64 6.07
Alex Hoppe .276 .344 .448 .257 .315 .406 0.5 -0.2 3.89 5.16
Taylor Broadway .265 .337 .446 .270 .320 .427 0.4 -0.2 4.25 5.55
Norwith Gudiño .295 .370 .505 .265 .354 .416 0.4 -0.4 4.92 6.46
Joely Rodríguez .255 .327 .362 .277 .344 .470 0.4 -0.3 3.89 5.89
Andrew Politi .264 .347 .462 .260 .345 .402 0.6 -0.5 4.33 6.05
Brendan Nail .254 .343 .373 .268 .359 .455 0.4 -0.4 4.58 6.07
Zack Kelly .247 .363 .377 .256 .356 .477 0.3 -0.4 4.49 6.31
Oddanier Mosqueda .221 .337 .338 .268 .367 .465 0.4 -0.6 4.45 6.18
Zack Weiss .263 .371 .461 .244 .330 .400 0.4 -0.5 4.25 6.44
Ryan Miller .274 .352 .453 .275 .342 .441 0.3 -0.5 4.47 6.04
Dinelson Lamet .270 .372 .486 .233 .321 .397 0.3 -0.5 4.56 6.89
Teddy Stankiewicz .321 .408 .534 .277 .343 .447 0.3 -0.5 5.47 6.83
Joe Jacques .225 .309 .310 .296 .380 .500 0.4 -0.5 4.50 6.11
Ryan Zeferjahn .271 .404 .494 .250 .347 .385 0.2 -0.5 5.02 6.67
Christopher Troye .250 .394 .425 .218 .337 .379 0.2 -0.6 4.49 6.34
Cam Booser .241 .333 .414 .276 .362 .463 0.2 -0.7 4.45 6.39
Andrés Núñez .264 .352 .440 .274 .363 .436 0.3 -0.6 4.67 6.33
Kyle Barraclough .273 .387 .444 .261 .368 .470 0.2 -0.7 5.20 6.99
Jake Faria .276 .395 .449 .292 .368 .500 0.3 -0.5 5.27 6.89
Robert Kwiatkowski .322 .392 .544 .269 .328 .429 0.1 -0.5 4.98 6.18
Justin Garza .250 .385 .393 .278 .349 .496 0.1 -0.6 5.04 6.64
Theo Denlinger .280 .386 .480 .250 .356 .409 0.0 -0.6 4.87 6.44
Dylan Spacke .309 .405 .521 .261 .352 .396 0.0 -0.7 5.41 6.69
Brendan Cellucci .250 .400 .383 .273 .382 .477 0.0 -0.8 5.22 6.86
Wyatt Olds .282 .434 .492 .248 .370 .399 0.1 -1.0 5.75 7.17
Skylar Arias .235 .422 .353 .250 .402 .472 -0.1 -0.6 5.52 7.64
Cody Scroggins .274 .392 .484 .282 .395 .451 -0.2 -0.7 5.55 7.22
Jorge Benitez .220 .356 .322 .279 .400 .500 -0.1 -1.1 5.12 7.11

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.


2024 ZiPS Projections: Kansas City Royals

by
November 28, 2023
ZiPS Projections
2024 2023

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Kansas City Royals.

Batters

Bobby Witt Jr. is the saving grace of this lineup, the only player on the Royals with a high chance of being elite at whatever it is he does. If the team isn’t preparing a large extension for Witt before he hits arbitration, they’re doing something seriously wrong. Sadly, given that it’s the Royals, there’s a good chance of them doing something seriously wrong. Read the rest of this entry »


2024 ZiPS Projections: Baltimore Orioles

by
November 27, 2023
ZiPS Projections
2024 2023

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Baltimore Orioles.

Batters

If you’ve looked at the depth chart or glanced down at the projections — if you haven’t, this is a weird article to be reading — you ought to be impressed with just how much offensive talent the O’s have. Of course, some spots are brighter (catcher, third base) than others (first base), but there’s really no gaping hole anywhere in this lineup. This reflects the success the team has had developing offensive prospects in recent years. While practically none of the players picked up in the 2018 selloff have worked out all that well, the Elias-era front office has a great record with minor league hitters. The O’s had our top prospect in 2022 (Adley Rutschman) and 2023 (Gunnar Henderson, though ZiPS had him second to Corbin Carroll), and Jackson Holliday, currently no. 1 on The Board, looks to be the heavy favorite to be the top prospect in 2024. Heck, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that someone like Coby Mayo or Samuel Basallo ends up the top prospect in 2025! The O’s eke out a few more wins than the depth chart here simply because of their depth; players like Mayo, Joey Ortiz, Colton Cowser, and Connor Norby all project to be positive contributors without an obvious place to lock up playing time right now. It’s only a slight exaggeration to say that I’d rather have a lineup of all the Orioles who don’t make their team’s 25-man roster out of spring training than all the Washington Nationals who do!

The Ryans O’Hearn and Mountcastle project as the weakest part of the lineup, but offense is in short supply in free agency, and I don’t expect Baltimore to make any changes here. It was always extremely unlikely that the Orioles would return to being one of the league’s payroll heavy hitters, but comments from John Angelos suggest that they’re not even going to be a middle class team, with spending more in line with Tampa Bay or Pittsburgh. If the least valuable parts of your offense project for a wRC+ around 110, you have bigger needs elsewhere. Before anyone calls shenanigans on some of the top comps, Mike Scioscia broke into the majors as a really good hitter before his radiation poisoning and Grady Hatton was a really good hitter when he was young, too. But when your top prospect gets two Hall of Famers in his top three comps, plus a third player who ought to be a Hall of Famer, you shouldn’t be too greedy.

This is one of the best offensive teams in baseball. While that’s never a guarantee of success, it’s a great place to start!

Pitchers

While the O’s have developed a lot of hitters, they haven’t had the same luck with pitchers outside of Grayson Rodriguez. Very few of the large stable of no. 4-ish starter prospects they had a few years ago really developed further, with Kyle Bradish and Dean Kremer being the primary success stories. Suspicions surrounding the pitching are what held Baltimore back in the ZiPS projections last year, and while the computer has come around on a number of pitchers, Bradish most notably, it’s still a rotation that’s begging for one high-end starter in free agency. I’d love to see the O’s go after Shōta Imanaga in any case; he’s gotten a lot less press than Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but he should come cheaper and there’s a lot to like about him. Plus, he’s a fly ball lefty whose weakness is being occasionally gopher ball-prone, and Camden Yards these days is very friendly for that type of pitcher.

Some of the Bradish gain is counteracted by ZiPS’ crush on Kremer being a bit more chaste than last year, but the rotation is at least acceptable so long as they don’t have poor luck with injuries. The team had been pretty lucky until late in the season when Félix Bautista went on the IL, where he’ll stay in 2024 thanks to Tommy John surgery. The bullpen ranked second in team WAR in 2023, but nearly 40% of that total was Bautista. If the O’s stand pat on the overall accomplishments of their 2023 ‘pen, they might regret it.

So how do the O’s look right now? You can add up the depth chart numbers (despite my warnings) and get them right around 90, and the current ZiPS sim has them at around 92 wins, the best record in the division. But that number will be revised as the winter progresses, and if teams like the Jays make any big additions and the O’s don’t, this standing could erode somewhat, despite the depth. It’s tempting to consider Baltimore’s 101 win-total in 2023 to be the team’s “starting point,” but that’s a path to disappointment, as a team exceeding its Pythagorean record and playing well in extra-innings/one-run games isn’t very predictive. Nor is it explained by bullpen quality; the r-squared between ‘pen quality, best reliever quality, and best three-reliever quality and Pythag/extra-innings/one-run game record is under 0.05 historically. And even then, the O’s don’t project to have as good a bullpen next go-around, thanks to the loss of Bautista. And no, projection misses aren’t predictive of future projection misses, even for very young or very old teams (since the projection systems already factor in age).

This is a very good team. The question is whether ownership is willing to invest enough for the Orioles to really find their ceiling.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Adley Rutschman B 26 C 578 497 77 132 34 1 18 69 72 88 2 1
Gunnar Henderson L 23 3B 640 561 103 146 27 7 26 93 68 158 12 4
Cedric Mullins L 29 CF 571 515 70 133 27 4 17 68 45 113 23 6
Jackson Holliday L 20 SS 610 538 86 137 23 6 11 70 69 141 12 6
Jordan Westburg R 25 2B 546 493 74 123 27 3 17 71 42 138 8 2
Anthony Santander B 29 RF 607 549 78 141 33 1 28 88 47 130 3 1
Coby Mayo R 22 3B 597 528 69 122 29 2 19 81 56 164 3 1
Austin Hays R 28 LF 543 499 74 132 30 2 18 68 36 127 4 2
Joey Ortiz R 25 SS 469 434 59 107 22 3 8 54 28 94 6 2
Ramón Urías R 30 3B 404 364 46 92 19 1 10 47 31 100 2 1
Colton Cowser L 24 CF 517 443 74 104 20 1 13 67 59 152 7 3
Jud Fabian R 23 CF 516 453 55 91 18 2 16 57 53 184 14 5
Connor Norby R 24 2B 586 534 78 132 24 3 17 75 41 142 7 4
Jorge Mateo R 29 SS 394 365 53 85 18 4 9 42 20 100 27 6
Ryan Mountcastle R 27 1B 553 503 66 130 23 1 23 79 40 132 3 1
Heston Kjerstad L 25 RF 534 487 69 123 22 4 14 71 31 119 3 2
Adam Frazier L 32 2B 505 459 59 117 21 3 7 50 35 68 9 5
Ryan O’Hearn L 30 1B 387 356 48 91 15 1 18 60 25 95 3 1
Daz Cameron R 27 CF 441 398 54 93 19 1 11 56 31 116 14 4
Kyle Stowers L 26 RF 444 395 50 92 17 1 18 62 40 136 3 2
Lewin Díaz L 27 1B 480 436 58 103 20 1 18 65 35 110 1 1
Josh Lester L 29 3B 492 458 59 106 21 2 20 70 28 140 2 1
Samuel Basallo L 19 C 467 428 57 96 18 3 15 61 34 108 5 3
Aaron Hicks B 34 CF 321 277 41 66 9 1 8 31 42 74 5 1
Maverick Handley R 26 C 291 255 30 53 9 1 5 30 26 85 5 1
Hudson Haskin R 25 CF 346 304 38 70 13 2 6 46 21 97 8 3
James McCann R 34 C 286 263 29 62 11 0 7 30 16 76 3 1
Ryan McKenna R 27 CF 278 246 38 53 10 1 7 30 24 87 6 2
Greg Cullen L 27 3B 252 216 20 48 8 1 3 24 30 61 2 1
Max Wagner R 22 3B 477 429 61 91 17 3 9 49 37 138 13 4
Sam Hilliard L 30 CF 364 327 47 67 12 2 14 40 34 125 9 1
Terrin Vavra L 27 LF 232 205 30 49 9 1 3 25 21 50 3 1
Ramón Rodríguez R 25 C 218 199 18 49 8 0 2 19 14 31 1 1
Meibrys Viloria L 27 C 294 256 29 54 11 0 5 30 33 86 1 1
Anthony Bemboom L 34 C 221 198 22 43 6 1 4 19 19 53 1 1
Ben DeLuzio R 29 LF 315 286 38 63 10 4 4 29 20 95 10 4
Silas Ardoin R 23 C 378 334 33 64 11 0 5 32 40 135 3 3
José Godoy L 29 C 259 239 28 57 8 0 5 28 16 57 1 1
Cadyn Grenier R 27 SS 414 360 43 72 15 2 4 36 42 128 7 3
Mark Kolozsvary R 28 C 188 168 20 30 7 0 4 20 12 69 1 1
Shayne Fontana L 27 LF 373 330 41 75 12 2 6 41 31 88 9 3
Elio Prado R 22 CF 431 389 46 86 12 3 7 45 28 98 5 5
Collin Burns L 24 SS 245 225 28 48 7 1 2 21 14 56 7 1
Billy Cook R 25 RF 465 429 46 91 15 3 13 55 25 140 15 2
Connor Pavolony R 24 C 149 130 14 23 4 1 2 11 15 55 1 1
Dylan Beavers L 22 RF 520 468 56 108 26 4 7 53 45 129 13 6
Joseph Rosa B 27 SS 333 298 35 63 12 2 3 30 27 101 7 2
Gilbert Lara R 26 SS 299 286 22 63 11 1 4 26 9 88 1 1
Randy Florentino L 23 C 211 192 23 42 6 0 3 17 14 48 1 1
Tim Susnara L 28 C 178 161 13 29 5 0 3 17 13 65 0 1
John Rhodes R 23 LF 441 398 49 84 17 3 8 46 35 122 6 1
Frederick Bencosme L 21 SS 463 424 48 103 15 3 2 36 33 75 12 4
Jacob Teter L 25 1B 332 303 26 65 15 0 5 30 25 98 1 1
Donta’ Williams L 25 CF 388 339 43 66 14 1 4 34 39 119 12 6
Zach Watson R 27 CF 335 313 34 63 11 2 7 34 13 112 9 2
TT Bowens R 26 1B 343 312 35 60 11 1 7 35 26 123 1 1
Anthony Servideo L 25 SS 350 315 29 50 10 0 2 22 30 152 4 3

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA RC
Adley Rutschman 578 .266 .362 .447 125 .181 .292 5 4.8 .350 81
Gunnar Henderson 640 .260 .344 .472 126 .212 .318 5 4.5 .350 95
Cedric Mullins 571 .258 .322 .425 107 .167 .301 5 2.9 .322 78
Jackson Holliday 610 .255 .341 .381 103 .126 .326 0 2.7 .319 75
Jordan Westburg 546 .249 .317 .420 105 .170 .314 4 2.6 .320 68
Anthony Santander 607 .257 .321 .474 119 .217 .289 -1 2.3 .339 85
Coby Mayo 597 .231 .315 .402 99 .170 .299 2 2.0 .313 68
Austin Hays 543 .265 .319 .441 110 .176 .322 4 1.9 .326 72
Joey Ortiz 469 .247 .296 .366 85 .120 .298 6 1.6 .290 49
Ramón Urías 404 .253 .323 .393 100 .140 .323 3 1.6 .314 47
Colton Cowser 517 .235 .335 .372 99 .138 .327 -2 1.5 .314 58
Jud Fabian 516 .201 .287 .355 79 .155 .296 9 1.4 .283 51
Connor Norby 586 .247 .305 .399 96 .152 .307 -2 1.3 .305 68
Jorge Mateo 394 .233 .277 .378 81 .145 .297 4 1.3 .283 46
Ryan Mountcastle 553 .258 .313 .445 110 .187 .307 0 1.2 .324 71
Heston Kjerstad 534 .253 .313 .400 98 .148 .308 5 1.2 .310 62
Adam Frazier 505 .255 .315 .359 89 .105 .286 1 1.1 .297 56
Ryan O’Hearn 387 .256 .307 .455 110 .199 .300 1 0.9 .324 51
Daz Cameron 441 .234 .298 .369 86 .136 .303 2 0.9 .292 48
Kyle Stowers 444 .233 .311 .418 102 .185 .307 1 0.8 .315 53
Lewin Díaz 480 .236 .298 .411 96 .174 .276 6 0.8 .305 54
Josh Lester 492 .231 .278 .417 92 .186 .289 0 0.8 .296 54
Samuel Basallo 467 .224 .285 .386 86 .161 .266 -4 0.7 .290 49
Aaron Hicks 321 .238 .340 .365 98 .126 .297 -5 0.6 .314 36
Maverick Handley 291 .208 .300 .310 72 .102 .291 2 0.6 .277 25
Hudson Haskin 346 .230 .314 .345 85 .115 .318 0 0.6 .295 36
James McCann 286 .236 .288 .357 80 .122 .306 0 0.5 .283 28
Ryan McKenna 278 .215 .291 .350 79 .134 .303 2 0.5 .283 27
Greg Cullen 252 .222 .327 .310 81 .088 .296 2 0.4 .290 23
Max Wagner 477 .212 .285 .329 72 .117 .291 4 0.4 .273 44
Sam Hilliard 364 .205 .283 .382 84 .177 .282 -2 0.4 .289 38
Terrin Vavra 232 .239 .320 .337 85 .098 .303 2 0.3 .295 23
Ramón Rodríguez 218 .246 .296 .317 72 .070 .283 0 0.2 .273 19
Meibrys Viloria 294 .211 .310 .313 76 .102 .297 -3 0.2 .281 25
Anthony Bemboom 221 .217 .290 .318 71 .101 .277 0 0.2 .271 19
Ben DeLuzio 315 .220 .284 .325 71 .105 .316 7 0.1 .271 30
Silas Ardoin 378 .192 .283 .269 57 .078 .304 4 0.1 .254 27
José Godoy 259 .238 .290 .335 75 .096 .294 -2 0.0 .276 24
Cadyn Grenier 414 .200 .294 .286 64 .086 .298 0 0.0 .266 33
Mark Kolozsvary 188 .179 .262 .292 55 .113 .274 2 0.0 .251 13
Shayne Fontana 373 .227 .307 .330 79 .103 .292 2 0.0 .286 37
Elio Prado 431 .221 .291 .321 72 .100 .278 1 0.0 .274 39
Collin Burns 245 .213 .270 .280 55 .067 .275 1 -0.2 .248 19
Billy Cook 465 .212 .265 .352 71 .140 .283 5 -0.2 .269 44
Connor Pavolony 149 .177 .275 .269 54 .092 .288 -1 -0.3 .250 10
Dylan Beavers 520 .231 .300 .348 82 .118 .304 0 -0.4 .285 54
Joseph Rosa 333 .211 .288 .295 65 .084 .309 -4 -0.4 .264 28
Gilbert Lara 299 .220 .251 .308 56 .087 .304 1 -0.4 .245 23
Randy Florentino 211 .219 .271 .297 60 .078 .277 -4 -0.6 .253 16
Tim Susnara 178 .180 .253 .267 46 .087 .280 -2 -0.6 .236 11
John Rhodes 441 .211 .283 .329 72 .118 .284 0 -0.8 .271 39
Frederick Bencosme 463 .243 .300 .307 71 .064 .291 -11 -0.8 .272 43
Jacob Teter 332 .215 .274 .314 65 .099 .300 2 -0.9 .261 27
Donta’ Williams 388 .195 .289 .277 61 .083 .287 -4 -1.0 .259 32
Zach Watson 335 .201 .240 .316 55 .115 .289 -4 -1.2 .243 26
TT Bowens 343 .192 .262 .301 58 .109 .291 -1 -1.5 .252 25
Anthony Servideo 350 .159 .238 .210 27 .051 .298 -6 -2.3 .208 18

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Adley Rutschman Mike Scioscia Ted Simmons Bill Freehan
Gunnar Henderson Grady Hatton Yoán Moncada Bill Madlock
Cedric Mullins Eric Byrnes Kevin Kiermaier Coco Crisp
Jackson Holliday Bobby Grich Arky Vaughan Alan Trammell
Jordan Westburg Frank Bolling Robert Sagers Robby Thompson
Anthony Santander Mickey Rocco Greg Walker Frank Kellert
Coby Mayo James Darnell Mark Naehring Bill Melton
Austin Hays Stefen Romero Tommy Cruz Rod Allen
Joey Ortiz Rafael Ramirez Jose Pagan Frank Johnson
Ramón Urías Jack Heidemann Kermit Wahl Ernest Riles
Colton Cowser Domingo Santana Rick Monday Ken Singleton
Jud Fabian Mike Hart Evan Chambers Steve Lyons
Connor Norby Josh Rutledge Eugenio Suárez Josh Barfield
Jorge Mateo Greg Gagne Chris Basak Scott Kingery
Ryan Mountcastle Mat Gamel Renato Núñez Dick Sisler
Heston Kjerstad Bill Roman Jim Mooring Frank Johnson
Adam Frazier Marlon Anderson Don Blasingame Dave Cash
Ryan O’Hearn Scott Hairston Micah Hoffpauir Jerry Lynch
Daz Cameron Jake Marisnick Delwyn Young Lane Adams
Kyle Stowers Bobby Prescott Jon Knott Benjamin Downs
Lewin Díaz Razor Shines Jerry Lomastro Scott Thorman
Josh Lester Mark Saccomanno Russ Davis Greg Jelks
Samuel Basallo Steve Nicosia Charlie Moore Jerry Moses
Aaron Hicks Willie Harris F.P. Santangelo Chad Curtis
Maverick Handley Ben Amaya Jeff Farnham Duane Gustavson
Hudson Haskin Michael Lang Rich Barnwell Chad Hinshaw
James McCann Dixie Howell Al Todd Bob Schmidt
Ryan McKenna Norm Roberts Tillman Pugh Earl Robinson
Greg Cullen Horace Porter Rich Paz Ed Jurak
Max Wagner Jose Ortiz Rob Sasser Tyler Goeddel
Sam Hilliard Louie Meadows Clyde Mashore B.J. Upton
Terrin Vavra Debs Garms Tommie Martz Al Spangler
Ramón Rodríguez Billy Alvino Sal Agostinelli Roly de Armas
Meibrys Viloria Luke Carlin Jose Lobaton Tom Lundstedt
Anthony Bemboom Paul Bako Russ Nixon Matt Treanor
Ben DeLuzio Darren Ford Ramon Gomez Scarborough Green
Silas Ardoin Dallas Tarleton Don Werner Mike Rose
José Godoy Adrian Nieto John Sevcik Roger Hansen
Cadyn Grenier Nolan Fontana Anthony Granato Anderson Machado
Mark Kolozsvary Jeff Hearron Gary Tremblay Tom Gregorio
Shayne Fontana Rick Prieto Mark Payton Brett Nommensen
Elio Prado Rick Colzie Ed Yacopino Ransel Melgarejo
Collin Burns Jason McConnell Pedro Blanco Offerman Collado
Billy Cook Anthony Sanders John Ramistella Steve Blomberg
Connor Pavolony Michael Shepston Bryan Graves John Harrell
Dylan Beavers Kory DeHaan Alberto Rodriguez Gary Thomasson
Joseph Rosa Rolando Gomez Darrel Chaney Eric Stamets
Gilbert Lara Kevin Rios Al Quintana Chase Jensen
Randy Florentino Kenny Miller Pete Bazan Michael Uremovich
Tim Susnara Clemente Alvarez Steven Lerud Kerry Baker
John Rhodes Shane Gunderson John Garofalo Jim McArdle
Frederick Bencosme Omar Infante Andrés Blanco Omar Obregon
Jacob Teter Jerry Kudajeski Al Corbeil Stephen Hunt
Donta’ Williams Joey Zellner Ricky Strickland Jim Essian
Zach Watson T.J. Steele Travis Becktel Jono Brooks
TT Bowens Daniel Berg Mark Threlkeld Robert Burrows
Anthony Servideo Seth Bynum Brian Wilson Chad McClanahan

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Adley Rutschman .291 .386 .500 146 6.2 .241 .336 .403 109 3.5
Gunnar Henderson .284 .374 .533 148 6.2 .234 .319 .419 106 3.0
Cedric Mullins .283 .347 .475 126 4.3 .231 .297 .371 87 1.5
Jackson Holliday .282 .373 .427 122 4.1 .229 .313 .343 85 1.2
Jordan Westburg .275 .344 .469 124 3.8 .226 .292 .368 84 1.1
Anthony Santander .282 .347 .539 143 4.0 .231 .296 .417 98 0.7
Coby Mayo .258 .340 .453 119 3.5 .204 .286 .346 77 0.5
Austin Hays .293 .343 .489 128 3.1 .236 .291 .389 89 0.5
Joey Ortiz .271 .324 .410 103 2.7 .224 .274 .326 70 0.7
Ramón Urías .281 .352 .450 122 2.6 .226 .296 .347 78 0.5
Colton Cowser .264 .364 .423 121 2.9 .207 .311 .329 82 0.5
Jud Fabian .227 .311 .401 96 2.5 .176 .261 .304 59 0.1
Connor Norby .273 .332 .450 115 2.6 .223 .281 .353 76 -0.2
Jorge Mateo .259 .304 .437 104 2.3 .206 .251 .334 63 0.3
Ryan Mountcastle .283 .334 .498 127 2.4 .231 .285 .396 90 -0.1
Heston Kjerstad .283 .342 .452 119 2.6 .225 .286 .354 79 0.0
Adam Frazier .282 .341 .399 104 2.1 .228 .290 .322 71 0.0
Ryan O’Hearn .280 .330 .507 129 1.9 .226 .276 .399 88 -0.1
Daz Cameron .258 .325 .416 106 1.9 .206 .268 .319 64 -0.4
Kyle Stowers .255 .333 .479 123 2.0 .206 .287 .363 82 -0.2
Lewin Díaz .261 .327 .464 118 2.1 .210 .269 .359 76 -0.3
Josh Lester .255 .298 .475 114 2.1 .209 .253 .370 76 -0.2
Samuel Basallo .250 .313 .450 106 1.9 .197 .256 .337 67 -0.6
Aaron Hicks .270 .370 .418 118 1.4 .209 .308 .313 77 -0.2
Maverick Handley .235 .331 .362 92 1.3 .177 .271 .266 53 0.0
Hudson Haskin .262 .338 .392 104 1.4 .203 .284 .297 65 -0.3
James McCann .262 .317 .406 102 1.2 .207 .264 .314 63 -0.2
Ryan McKenna .243 .317 .402 99 1.1 .188 .261 .303 59 -0.3
Greg Cullen .249 .355 .349 97 1.0 .192 .299 .270 62 -0.1
Max Wagner .237 .310 .369 90 1.6 .188 .258 .285 54 -0.6
Sam Hilliard .234 .315 .452 109 1.5 .181 .255 .328 62 -0.6
Terrin Vavra .263 .343 .383 104 0.8 .209 .289 .295 65 -0.3
Ramón Rodríguez .282 .331 .363 94 0.8 .208 .259 .273 52 -0.4
Meibrys Viloria .239 .341 .361 95 0.8 .181 .282 .268 54 -0.6
Anthony Bemboom .253 .323 .373 93 0.7 .187 .258 .270 50 -0.4
Ben DeLuzio .249 .313 .370 92 0.9 .197 .258 .279 53 -0.6
Silas Ardoin .225 .312 .312 77 1.1 .165 .251 .229 38 -0.8
José Godoy .276 .329 .389 101 0.9 .210 .265 .294 59 -0.5
Cadyn Grenier .226 .320 .332 83 1.0 .168 .264 .248 46 -0.9
Mark Kolozsvary .212 .296 .349 79 0.5 .149 .229 .241 34 -0.6
Shayne Fontana .253 .337 .378 100 0.9 .197 .278 .290 60 -0.9
Elio Prado .250 .318 .370 93 1.1 .196 .264 .282 55 -0.9
Collin Burns .244 .300 .324 74 0.4 .184 .242 .245 39 -0.8
Billy Cook .239 .290 .400 91 0.9 .188 .241 .307 55 -1.2
Connor Pavolony .209 .304 .323 76 0.1 .150 .246 .226 37 -0.7
Dylan Beavers .255 .323 .386 99 0.6 .206 .273 .308 67 -1.4
Joseph Rosa .241 .316 .336 82 0.3 .184 .260 .255 47 -1.2
Gilbert Lara .250 .278 .347 74 0.3 .194 .225 .268 37 -1.1
Randy Florentino .256 .312 .353 83 0.1 .183 .242 .249 39 -1.1
Tim Susnara .214 .292 .324 70 0.0 .151 .220 .225 24 -1.1
John Rhodes .236 .308 .367 87 0.1 .184 .255 .284 52 -1.9
Frederick Bencosme .274 .332 .345 90 0.4 .215 .274 .268 52 -1.9
Jacob Teter .239 .298 .353 81 -0.2 .188 .243 .274 46 -1.6
Donta’ Williams .223 .316 .318 79 -0.1 .170 .262 .239 44 -1.8
Zach Watson .229 .267 .365 73 -0.4 .173 .213 .276 36 -2.0
TT Bowens .215 .287 .347 74 -0.8 .166 .234 .259 39 -2.2
Anthony Servideo .188 .269 .251 46 -1.5 .129 .211 .171 11 -3.0

Batters – Projected Splits
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
Adley Rutschman .263 .367 .430 .267 .359 .456
Gunnar Henderson .245 .333 .436 .269 .350 .493
Cedric Mullins .243 .310 .401 .264 .327 .435
Jackson Holliday .240 .323 .370 .260 .348 .385
Jordan Westburg .251 .328 .433 .248 .307 .408
Anthony Santander .259 .330 .471 .256 .317 .475
Coby Mayo .231 .318 .394 .231 .313 .407
Austin Hays .268 .327 .458 .263 .314 .431
Joey Ortiz .251 .309 .374 .243 .287 .360
Ramón Urías .248 .325 .390 .256 .321 .395
Colton Cowser .227 .328 .347 .239 .339 .386
Jud Fabian .203 .298 .360 .199 .281 .352
Connor Norby .250 .314 .412 .245 .300 .390
Jorge Mateo .241 .289 .404 .228 .269 .362
Ryan Mountcastle .263 .323 .464 .256 .307 .435
Heston Kjerstad .242 .304 .373 .257 .317 .413
Adam Frazier .239 .297 .321 .260 .320 .371
Ryan O’Hearn .234 .286 .390 .262 .314 .473
Daz Cameron .238 .304 .390 .230 .293 .354
Kyle Stowers .228 .305 .389 .236 .314 .435
Lewin Díaz .229 .287 .396 .240 .303 .418
Josh Lester .223 .269 .391 .237 .285 .434
Samuel Basallo .213 .271 .361 .229 .290 .395
Aaron Hicks .241 .340 .379 .237 .339 .358
Maverick Handley .213 .309 .352 .204 .293 .279
Hudson Haskin .233 .314 .353 .227 .314 .338
James McCann .242 .300 .385 .233 .281 .343
Ryan McKenna .220 .301 .367 .212 .283 .336
Greg Cullen .221 .329 .294 .223 .326 .318
Max Wagner .216 .293 .327 .210 .280 .330
Sam Hilliard .202 .279 .383 .206 .285 .382
Terrin Vavra .234 .319 .313 .241 .321 .348
Ramón Rodríguez .250 .302 .330 .243 .292 .306
Meibrys Viloria .202 .309 .310 .215 .310 .314
Anthony Bemboom .206 .282 .286 .222 .293 .333
Ben DeLuzio .230 .296 .338 .211 .273 .313
Silas Ardoin .195 .299 .273 .189 .273 .267
José Godoy .224 .272 .318 .247 .299 .344
Cadyn Grenier .194 .294 .279 .244 .295 .341
Mark Kolozsvary .184 .262 .303 .174 .262 .283
Shayne Fontana .209 .290 .309 .236 .316 .341
Elio Prado .229 .300 .319 .216 .285 .322
Collin Burns .208 .269 .278 .216 .271 .281
Billy Cook .211 .268 .354 .213 .263 .350
Connor Pavolony .179 .292 .304 .176 .262 .243
Dylan Beavers .217 .287 .326 .236 .305 .357
Joseph Rosa .213 .294 .291 .211 .284 .298
Gilbert Lara .227 .261 .333 .214 .242 .286
Randy Florentino .203 .250 .288 .226 .281 .301
Tim Susnara .170 .250 .255 .184 .254 .272
John Rhodes .217 .294 .329 .207 .276 .329
Frederick Bencosme .226 .284 .298 .250 .307 .310
Jacob Teter .205 .260 .284 .219 .280 .326
Donta’ Williams .183 .277 .250 .200 .295 .289
Zach Watson .203 .243 .315 .200 .238 .318
TT Bowens .200 .280 .317 .186 .247 .287
Anthony Servideo .157 .235 .180 .159 .239 .221

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Kyle Bradish R 27 10 8 3.71 29 29 155.3 137 64 17 54 148
Dean Kremer R 28 9 7 3.86 29 28 154.0 147 66 17 48 132
Grayson Rodriguez R 24 7 6 4.07 28 28 141.7 126 64 19 44 153
Félix Bautista R 29 7 2 2.61 59 0 62.0 39 18 7 22 93
Tyler Wells R 29 6 6 4.20 32 20 113.7 97 53 17 36 103
Jack Flaherty R 28 7 7 4.52 25 23 127.3 117 64 18 55 131
Cade Povich L 24 8 9 4.43 25 25 113.7 105 56 15 50 115
DL Hall L 25 4 4 4.01 34 14 76.3 64 34 10 37 96
John Means L 31 5 5 4.24 17 17 85.0 81 40 13 22 63
Cole Irvin L 30 7 9 4.58 28 22 131.7 140 67 21 29 96
Garrett Stallings R 26 7 8 4.54 25 19 111.0 116 56 15 31 86
Bruce Zimmermann L 29 5 6 4.56 24 20 106.7 114 54 16 32 90
Yennier Cano R 30 3 2 3.67 66 0 68.7 64 28 8 22 64
Justin Armbruester R 25 5 5 4.67 24 22 106.0 107 55 14 40 82
Alex Pham R 24 3 4 4.50 24 16 88.0 86 44 12 37 76
Chayce McDermott R 25 6 7 4.67 23 18 98.3 87 51 13 54 105
Trey McGough L 26 4 4 4.60 19 14 76.3 81 39 10 24 52
Kyle Brnovich R 26 3 3 4.45 17 14 64.7 62 32 9 21 58
Keegan Akin L 29 3 3 4.09 29 7 61.7 59 28 8 18 65
Jean Pinto R 23 3 3 4.76 24 19 85.0 84 45 12 38 71
Ryan Watson R 26 4 5 4.70 29 11 82.3 85 43 11 31 65
Peter Van Loon R 25 5 5 4.60 19 12 60.7 60 31 8 23 53
Seth Johnson R 25 3 4 4.55 16 12 57.3 58 29 9 24 56
Antonio Velez L 27 4 4 4.60 20 8 58.7 63 30 8 14 41
Ryan Long R 24 5 6 4.80 24 11 86.3 89 46 12 32 64
Mike Baumann R 28 5 5 4.48 45 6 72.3 68 36 9 32 68
Tucker Davidson L 28 4 5 4.71 28 12 80.3 78 42 11 33 75
Trace Bright R 23 4 4 4.93 24 20 91.3 84 50 13 50 90
Brandon Young R 25 3 3 4.70 16 15 53.7 56 28 8 20 43
Noah Denoyer R 26 2 3 4.63 22 6 56.3 54 29 8 27 54
Danny Coulombe L 34 4 3 4.11 51 0 46.0 44 21 7 17 49
Keagan Gillies R 26 3 3 4.08 30 1 35.3 32 16 5 13 37
Austin Voth R 32 2 3 4.80 33 8 60.0 61 32 9 23 57
Jacob Webb R 30 3 3 4.30 59 1 60.7 54 29 8 24 67
Cionel Pérez L 28 3 3 4.31 61 1 54.3 51 26 6 25 50
Nick Vespi L 28 3 3 4.18 43 0 47.3 45 22 6 16 45
Jorge López R 31 4 5 4.67 47 6 69.3 69 36 9 27 64
Connor Gillispie R 26 4 6 5.14 23 12 89.3 94 51 14 38 63
Jake Lyons R 25 3 5 4.98 19 7 56.0 59 31 8 25 44
Ryan Hennen L 26 2 2 4.18 21 0 32.3 31 15 4 9 28
Conner Loeprich R 26 2 3 4.75 28 3 53.0 55 28 7 19 41
Bryan Baker R 29 4 4 4.37 56 0 55.7 50 27 7 25 54
Shintaro Fujinami R 30 5 7 4.97 40 8 76.0 68 42 9 46 80
Darwinzon Hernández L 27 2 2 4.95 32 3 36.3 29 20 5 24 46
Dillon Tate R 30 2 3 4.71 45 0 49.7 47 26 6 17 38
Jensen Elliott R 27 2 4 5.10 23 2 42.3 49 24 6 13 23
Houston Roth R 26 4 7 5.32 22 7 71.0 75 42 11 37 55
Nathan Webb R 26 2 3 5.03 23 2 39.3 38 22 6 22 38
T.J. McFarland L 35 3 3 4.65 40 0 50.3 52 26 6 18 38
Carlos Tavera R 25 3 5 5.54 19 14 65.0 64 40 10 47 57
Nolan Hoffman R 26 1 2 4.79 32 0 41.3 44 22 5 13 27
Mychal Givens R 34 2 4 5.02 39 1 37.7 36 21 6 20 36
Ryan Conroy R 27 3 4 5.15 25 3 50.7 53 29 7 26 42
Dylan Heid R 26 3 3 4.81 27 0 39.3 36 21 5 24 41
Ignacio Feliz R 24 3 4 5.47 24 5 54.3 52 33 8 34 51
Joey Krehbiel R 31 2 2 4.87 42 0 44.3 44 24 6 20 35
Tyler Burch R 26 2 3 5.03 27 0 39.3 42 22 6 16 28
Ofreidy Gómez R 28 2 3 5.55 27 5 47.0 46 29 7 31 43
Kade Strowd R 26 2 2 5.09 29 0 46.0 46 26 7 23 40
Cole Uvila R 30 2 3 5.26 34 0 39.3 41 23 6 22 34
Morgan McSweeney R 26 2 2 5.18 37 0 41.7 41 24 6 24 35
Xavier Moore R 25 1 2 5.83 24 1 29.3 26 19 4 25 32
Kyle Dowdy R 31 4 5 5.04 36 0 55.3 55 31 8 31 49
Nick Richmond R 26 1 2 5.68 22 0 25.3 27 16 4 14 18
Wandisson Charles R 27 3 5 5.26 35 0 39.3 36 23 6 28 41
Dan Hammer R 26 1 4 6.98 21 3 38.7 36 30 6 43 39

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Kyle Bradish 155.3 8.6 3.1 1.0 8.2% 22.6% .281 110 3.93 91 2.8
Dean Kremer 154.0 7.7 2.8 1.0 7.4% 20.3% .290 106 4.03 94 2.6
Grayson Rodriguez 141.7 9.7 2.8 1.2 7.4% 25.8% .289 101 3.90 99 2.0
Félix Bautista 62.0 13.5 3.2 1.0 8.9% 37.7% .262 157 2.84 64 1.9
Tyler Wells 113.7 8.2 2.9 1.3 7.7% 22.0% .258 98 4.42 102 1.3
Jack Flaherty 127.3 9.3 3.9 1.3 10.0% 23.8% .290 91 4.54 110 1.2
Cade Povich 113.7 9.1 4.0 1.2 10.1% 23.3% .292 92 4.40 108 1.1
DL Hall 76.3 11.3 4.4 1.2 11.2% 29.1% .297 102 4.05 98 1.1
John Means 85.0 6.7 2.3 1.4 6.2% 17.8% .269 97 4.64 103 1.1
Cole Irvin 131.7 6.6 2.0 1.4 5.2% 17.3% .292 89 4.69 112 1.0
Garrett Stallings 111.0 7.0 2.5 1.2 6.5% 18.1% .297 90 4.38 111 1.0
Bruce Zimmermann 106.7 7.6 2.7 1.4 6.9% 19.5% .306 90 4.50 111 0.9
Yennier Cano 68.7 8.4 2.9 1.0 7.6% 22.1% .290 112 4.00 90 0.8
Justin Armbruester 106.0 7.0 3.4 1.2 8.7% 17.8% .290 88 4.73 114 0.8
Alex Pham 88.0 7.8 3.8 1.2 9.5% 19.5% .289 91 4.60 110 0.8
Chayce McDermott 98.3 9.6 4.9 1.2 12.3% 24.0% .287 88 4.61 114 0.7
Trey McGough 76.3 6.1 2.8 1.2 7.3% 15.7% .293 89 4.58 112 0.7
Kyle Brnovich 64.7 8.1 2.9 1.3 7.6% 21.0% .288 92 4.48 109 0.7
Keegan Akin 61.7 9.5 2.6 1.2 6.9% 25.0% .305 100 3.76 100 0.7
Jean Pinto 85.0 7.5 4.0 1.3 10.1% 18.8% .288 86 4.90 116 0.6
Ryan Watson 82.3 7.1 3.4 1.2 8.6% 18.0% .296 87 4.69 115 0.5
Peter Van Loon 60.7 7.9 3.4 1.2 8.7% 20.1% .294 89 4.56 112 0.5
Seth Johnson 57.3 8.8 3.8 1.4 9.5% 22.1% .304 90 4.70 111 0.5
Antonio Velez 58.7 6.3 2.1 1.2 5.6% 16.3% .297 89 4.45 112 0.4
Ryan Long 86.3 6.7 3.3 1.3 8.5% 17.0% .291 85 4.80 117 0.4
Mike Baumann 72.3 8.5 4.0 1.1 10.1% 21.5% .291 91 4.40 109 0.4
Tucker Davidson 80.3 8.4 3.7 1.2 9.5% 21.6% .295 87 4.51 115 0.4
Trace Bright 91.3 8.9 4.9 1.3 12.0% 21.6% .285 83 5.04 120 0.4
Brandon Young 53.7 7.2 3.4 1.3 8.5% 18.3% .296 87 4.88 115 0.4
Noah Denoyer 56.3 8.6 4.3 1.3 10.8% 21.5% .293 88 4.73 113 0.3
Danny Coulombe 46.0 9.6 3.3 1.4 8.6% 24.9% .301 100 4.28 100 0.2
Keagan Gillies 35.3 9.4 3.3 1.3 8.6% 24.3% .287 101 4.19 99 0.2
Austin Voth 60.0 8.6 3.5 1.4 8.7% 21.7% .304 85 4.56 117 0.2
Jacob Webb 60.7 9.9 3.6 1.2 9.3% 25.9% .293 95 4.10 105 0.2
Cionel Pérez 54.3 8.3 4.1 1.0 10.5% 21.1% .292 95 4.34 105 0.2
Nick Vespi 47.3 8.6 3.0 1.1 7.9% 22.3% .293 98 4.08 102 0.2
Jorge López 69.3 8.3 3.5 1.2 8.9% 21.1% .302 88 4.57 114 0.1
Connor Gillispie 89.3 6.3 3.8 1.4 9.6% 15.9% .288 80 5.36 125 0.1
Jake Lyons 56.0 7.1 4.0 1.3 10.0% 17.5% .298 82 4.99 122 0.1
Ryan Hennen 32.3 7.8 2.5 1.1 6.6% 20.6% .287 98 4.15 102 0.1
Conner Loeprich 53.0 7.0 3.2 1.2 8.1% 17.4% .296 86 4.61 116 0.1
Bryan Baker 55.7 8.7 4.0 1.1 10.3% 22.3% .283 94 4.40 107 0.0
Shintaro Fujinami 76.0 9.5 5.4 1.1 13.4% 23.3% .292 82 4.70 121 0.0
Darwinzon Hernández 36.3 11.4 5.9 1.2 14.7% 28.2% .282 83 4.99 121 -0.1
Dillon Tate 49.7 6.9 3.1 1.1 8.0% 17.8% .277 87 4.62 115 -0.1
Jensen Elliott 42.3 4.9 2.8 1.3 6.9% 12.2% .301 80 5.07 125 -0.1
Houston Roth 71.0 7.0 4.7 1.4 11.4% 16.9% .295 77 5.41 130 -0.2
Nathan Webb 39.3 8.7 5.0 1.4 12.1% 20.9% .294 81 5.14 123 -0.2
T.J. McFarland 50.3 6.8 3.2 1.1 8.2% 17.4% .297 88 4.55 114 -0.2
Carlos Tavera 65.0 7.9 6.5 1.4 15.2% 18.4% .289 74 5.76 135 -0.2
Nolan Hoffman 41.3 5.9 2.8 1.1 7.2% 15.0% .293 86 4.68 117 -0.2
Mychal Givens 37.7 8.6 4.8 1.4 11.9% 21.4% .288 82 5.25 122 -0.2
Ryan Conroy 50.7 7.5 4.6 1.2 11.3% 18.3% .303 80 5.23 126 -0.2
Dylan Heid 39.3 9.4 5.5 1.1 13.6% 23.2% .295 85 4.81 117 -0.2
Ignacio Feliz 54.3 8.4 5.6 1.3 13.6% 20.4% .289 75 5.56 133 -0.3
Joey Krehbiel 44.3 7.1 4.1 1.2 10.2% 17.9% .286 84 4.92 119 -0.3
Tyler Burch 39.3 6.4 3.7 1.4 9.1% 15.9% .293 81 5.19 123 -0.3
Ofreidy Gómez 47.0 8.2 5.9 1.3 13.8% 19.1% .291 74 5.79 136 -0.3
Kade Strowd 46.0 7.8 4.5 1.4 11.1% 19.2% .291 81 5.19 124 -0.4
Cole Uvila 39.3 7.8 5.0 1.4 12.1% 18.7% .302 78 5.26 128 -0.4
Morgan McSweeney 41.7 7.6 5.2 1.3 12.6% 18.4% .287 79 5.32 127 -0.4
Xavier Moore 29.3 9.8 7.7 1.2 17.6% 22.5% .289 70 5.61 142 -0.4
Kyle Dowdy 55.3 8.0 5.0 1.3 12.3% 19.4% .294 81 5.21 123 -0.4
Nick Richmond 25.3 6.4 5.0 1.4 11.8% 15.1% .291 72 6.02 139 -0.4
Wandisson Charles 39.3 9.4 6.4 1.4 15.1% 22.2% .288 78 5.44 128 -0.4
Dan Hammer 38.7 9.1 10.0 1.4 21.7% 19.7% .288 59 7.06 170 -0.9

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
Kyle Bradish Sonny Gray Tim Hudson Justin Verlander
Dean Kremer Marcus Stroman Roberto Hernandez Johnny Cueto
Grayson Rodriguez Mat Latos José Berríos Kevin Appier
Félix Bautista Rich Gossage Trevor Hoffman Cody Allen
Tyler Wells Phil Collins Jesse Flores Mark Portugal
Jack Flaherty Kevin Gross Roger Pavlik Joey Jay
Cade Povich Chris Seddon 세든 Jalen Beeks Jarrod Washburn
DL Hall Caleb Ferguson Jonathan Sanchez William Glane
John Means Donovan Osborne Tyler Anderson Art Nehf
Cole Irvin Scott McGregor Clayton Richard Mitchell Lambson
Garrett Stallings Lindsey Caughel Terry Doyle Cisco Carlos
Bruce Zimmermann David Huff 허프 Glen Perkins Kei Igawa
Yennier Cano Alex Colomé Braden Looper Sam Dyson
Justin Armbruester Larry Pashnick Jeanmar Gómez Dan Houston
Alex Pham Michael Lorenzen Jeff Samardzija George Bechtold
Chayce McDermott Matt Magill Jake Faria Steve Renko
Trey McGough Derek Manning Pat Underwood Frank Bork
Kyle Brnovich Tim Hallgren Mitch Lukevics Frank Brosseau
Keegan Akin Adam Morgan Lester Clinkscales Bob Lacey
Jean Pinto Will Inman Gerald Alexander Kent Hunziker
Ryan Watson Rick Kirsten Joel Davis Eric Thompson
Peter Van Loon J.R. Graham Milt Wilcox Bill Dillman
Seth Johnson Dave Meyer Bob Giggie Nick Krsnich
Antonio Velez Luke Sommer Casey Harman Trevor Enders
Ryan Long Kevin Mlodik Fredy Deza Luke Robertson
Mike Baumann J.C. Gutierrez Drew VerHagen Hank Mason
Tucker Davidson Bob Hendley Rick Krivda Bob Buchanan
Trace Bright Reggie Harris Bill Risley Keyvius Sampson 샘슨
Brandon Young John Hannon Robert Gill Tim Dell
Noah Denoyer Austin House Marcelino Dominguez Travis Lakins
Danny Coulombe Joey Eischen Pedro Feliciano Brian Duensing
Keagan Gillies Art Martinez Jim Bryant Jim Donohue
Austin Voth Gary Glover 글로버 Jim Owens Mike Harkey
Jacob Webb Mace Brown Cliff Politte Tom Sturdivant
Cionel Pérez James Pazos Jeff Calhoun Bob McClure
Nick Vespi Jesse Carlson Graeme Lloyd Donnie Hart
Jorge López Alfredo Simon Joe Biagini Buck Farmer
Connor Gillispie Barrett Astin Jesus Tinoco Josh Hodges
Jake Lyons Bernard Belan Wascar Serrano Paul Moviel
Ryan Hennen Erasmo Ramirez Mark Mesewicz Courtney Mitchell
Conner Loeprich John Green Freddie Davis Henry Villar
Bryan Baker Matt Albers Logan Ondrusek Marvin Freeman
Shintaro Fujinami John Pacella José Álvarez Tyler Pearson
Darwinzon Hernández Bill Bayne Don Shaw Leyson Septimo
Dillon Tate Rob Scahill Bob Bowman Braden Looper
Jensen Elliott Raul Mercado Adam Cimber Jeremy Halpin
Houston Roth Brian Dupra Johendi Jiminian John Kuchno
Nathan Webb David Carpenter Seth Overbey Darren Balsley
T.J. McFarland Ken Lehman Fred Baczewski Chad Zerbe
Carlos Tavera John Papa Al Schmelz Marvin Freeman
Nolan Hoffman Greg Washburn Dick Bokelmann Kurt Yacko
Mychal Givens Matt Karchner Ricky Bottalico Emil Kush
Ryan Conroy Jose Vargas Kyle Crist Jefri Hernandez
Dylan Heid Hector Nelo Ed Riley Fred Wenz
Ignacio Feliz Mike Hermanson Myles Smith Chris Sinacori
Joey Krehbiel Georges Maranda Cal Koonce Mike Fornieles
Tyler Burch T.J. Burton Edgar Garcia Billy Biggs
Ofreidy Gómez Daniel Turpen Joe Valentine Jose Ortega
Kade Strowd Derek Diaz Angel Nesbitt Domingo Guzman
Cole Uvila Juan Sandoval B.J. Litchfield Douglas Gentry
Morgan McSweeney Marcel Lachemann Oswaldo Pacheco Jack Lazorko
Xavier Moore Harvey Mattingly Mike Barba Darren Hall
Kyle Dowdy T.J. Beam Tim Corcoran Mike Walker
Nick Richmond John Brown Rich Grife William Gerhardt
Wandisson Charles Chris Perry Jeff Ames Ysmael Carmona
Dan Hammer Yoel Espinal Alvin Brown Jeff Soptic

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Kyle Bradish .234 .309 .361 .229 .293 .384 3.9 1.7 3.16 4.29
Dean Kremer .238 .310 .365 .251 .302 .408 3.4 1.5 3.40 4.41
Grayson Rodriguez .229 .292 .384 .236 .298 .398 3.1 1.0 3.49 4.69
Félix Bautista .173 .250 .306 .177 .254 .315 2.9 0.9 1.81 3.70
Tyler Wells .212 .268 .352 .236 .304 .435 2.1 0.5 3.70 4.88
Jack Flaherty .248 .336 .416 .229 .313 .396 2.2 0.1 3.88 5.29
Cade Povich .236 .324 .354 .241 .322 .418 2.0 0.2 3.86 5.12
DL Hall .205 .290 .318 .230 .329 .405 1.8 0.2 3.37 4.93
John Means .235 .283 .388 .250 .302 .439 1.6 0.5 3.78 4.83
Cole Irvin .265 .313 .404 .267 .311 .468 1.8 0.3 4.06 5.16
Garrett Stallings .282 .339 .450 .246 .289 .409 1.8 0.2 3.96 5.19
Bruce Zimmermann .263 .302 .415 .269 .328 .455 1.6 0.1 4.01 5.29
Yennier Cano .250 .314 .395 .234 .297 .383 1.4 0.0 3.12 4.50
Justin Armbruester .268 .344 .443 .247 .315 .399 1.4 0.1 4.23 5.24
Alex Pham .253 .326 .418 .247 .318 .414 1.5 0.2 3.91 4.98
Chayce McDermott .253 .348 .434 .211 .317 .356 1.5 -0.3 4.08 5.44
Trey McGough .258 .311 .361 .271 .323 .469 1.1 0.1 4.09 5.15
Kyle Brnovich .235 .308 .387 .258 .322 .439 1.1 0.2 3.91 5.04
Keegan Akin .230 .275 .311 .253 .309 .446 1.2 0.2 3.41 4.87
Jean Pinto .229 .325 .333 .270 .340 .492 1.1 0.0 4.25 5.26
Ryan Watson .258 .343 .430 .263 .318 .423 1.0 -0.1 4.20 5.35
Peter Van Loon .259 .339 .438 .246 .314 .389 0.9 0.0 4.04 5.24
Seth Johnson .238 .319 .410 .273 .341 .463 0.9 0.0 3.95 5.23
Antonio Velez .268 .303 .408 .270 .318 .448 0.8 0.0 4.06 5.26
Ryan Long .246 .326 .398 .276 .328 .465 1.0 -0.2 4.28 5.39
Mike Baumann .236 .331 .382 .248 .316 .408 1.0 -0.2 3.93 5.30
Tucker Davidson .231 .324 .363 .257 .325 .441 0.9 -0.3 4.12 5.55
Trace Bright .232 .352 .378 .245 .336 .436 1.1 -0.3 4.35 5.51
Brandon Young .255 .327 .388 .270 .336 .478 0.7 0.0 4.19 5.24
Noah Denoyer .245 .342 .408 .248 .324 .421 0.7 -0.3 4.10 5.40
Danny Coulombe .235 .297 .353 .252 .323 .468 0.9 -0.4 3.19 5.33
Keagan Gillies .250 .324 .391 .222 .288 .417 0.6 -0.1 3.38 4.97
Austin Voth .270 .339 .459 .246 .314 .413 0.8 -0.3 4.04 5.59
Jacob Webb .225 .316 .373 .238 .306 .408 0.8 -0.6 3.53 5.46
Cionel Pérez .232 .316 .391 .248 .331 .383 0.7 -0.4 3.63 5.12
Nick Vespi .250 .314 .375 .242 .303 .417 0.6 -0.3 3.40 5.07
Jorge López .266 .349 .461 .243 .321 .368 0.8 -0.5 3.98 5.47
Connor Gillispie .277 .356 .488 .254 .332 .413 0.7 -0.5 4.62 5.72
Jake Lyons .277 .357 .426 .254 .328 .443 0.5 -0.3 4.53 5.59
Ryan Hennen .237 .293 .368 .250 .309 .420 0.4 -0.2 3.45 5.06
Conner Loeprich .250 .324 .385 .272 .328 .456 0.5 -0.3 4.20 5.45
Bryan Baker .223 .315 .362 .244 .321 .412 0.6 -0.6 3.64 5.31
Shintaro Fujinami .239 .363 .387 .228 .329 .376 0.8 -0.9 4.14 5.95
Darwinzon Hernández .174 .333 .283 .233 .364 .433 0.4 -0.6 4.01 5.96
Dillon Tate .260 .348 .429 .235 .299 .383 0.3 -0.6 4.05 5.54
Jensen Elliott .289 .349 .500 .281 .333 .427 0.1 -0.4 4.59 5.74
Houston Roth .266 .367 .461 .265 .343 .445 0.4 -0.8 4.71 6.07
Nathan Webb .271 .378 .486 .229 .323 .386 0.1 -0.6 4.45 5.89
T.J. McFarland .231 .282 .385 .281 .358 .438 0.2 -0.7 3.92 5.74
Carlos Tavera .256 .382 .416 .248 .359 .442 0.3 -0.7 5.03 6.32
Nolan Hoffman .284 .361 .446 .253 .303 .407 0.1 -0.5 4.31 5.33
Mychal Givens .276 .391 .517 .227 .317 .375 0.2 -0.6 4.23 5.91
Ryan Conroy .258 .348 .464 .269 .369 .404 0.2 -0.6 4.51 5.89
Dylan Heid .243 .369 .400 .235 .330 .395 0.1 -0.6 4.17 5.61
Ignacio Feliz .274 .402 .432 .224 .336 .414 0.1 -0.8 4.93 6.23
Joey Krehbiel .250 .349 .389 .255 .325 .441 0.1 -0.7 4.20 5.70
Tyler Burch .274 .354 .493 .262 .330 .417 -0.1 -0.6 4.57 5.78
Ofreidy Gómez .259 .400 .481 .243 .358 .388 0.1 -0.8 4.93 6.57
Kade Strowd .261 .363 .477 .247 .330 .398 0.0 -0.8 4.55 5.84
Cole Uvila .254 .361 .423 .271 .351 .471 0.0 -0.8 4.56 6.25
Morgan McSweeney .270 .379 .459 .236 .330 .404 -0.1 -0.8 4.63 6.01
Xavier Moore .250 .418 .462 .217 .342 .350 -0.1 -0.8 5.06 6.96
Kyle Dowdy .247 .360 .376 .258 .345 .460 0.0 -1.0 4.42 5.99
Nick Richmond .280 .390 .480 .255 .361 .451 -0.3 -0.7 5.19 6.65
Wandisson Charles .247 .382 .452 .231 .344 .385 -0.1 -0.9 4.55 6.25
Dan Hammer .235 .435 .441 .247 .421 .420 -0.6 -1.6 6.10 8.59

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.


2024 ZiPS Projections: Toronto Blue Jays

by
November 22, 2023
ZiPS Projections
2024 2023

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Toronto Blue Jays.

Batters

None of the projections here will blow your socks off, but on the plus side, very few of them will get your socks wet (and then you’re walking around all day with your feet wet and clammy, and every time you step it makes a little squishing sound, and you think there’s a bit of dirt in there and you’d like to take off your shoes, but that’s why you’re not allowed in Kroger anymore, so you can’t). If social media is any indication, Matt Chapman might be underrated at this point. He was terrible in the second half, but I haven’t found that to be very predictive, and overall, he still gave the Blue Jays about four wins that they now have to replace. Right now, third base, along with left field and designated hitter, looks to be an amalgamation of role players, though I don’t expect that situation to persist through Opening Day, if for no other reason than active rosters aren’t large enough for Toronto to start the season with all three of those unwieldy chimeras. Read the rest of this entry »


2024 ZiPS Projections: Washington Nationals

by
November 21, 2023
ZiPS Projections
2024 2023

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Washington Nationals.

Batters

Let’s get the bad news out of the way first. One isn’t the loneliest number on this depth chart, which features the most ones you’ll see outside of a singles mixer. CJ Abrams is the only player to get a two-win projection, and as for any threes, fours, or even something spicier (read: higher)? Well, they’re not invited to this party. We can also dispense with the other bit of bad news: ZiPS is actually more optimistic about a lot of these players than Steamer is.

I was thinking about just ending this writeup there, but that’s too cruel even for me. The good news is that even though the Nationals are unlikely to be very good in 2024, they’re not really supposed to be, and much of this roster is made up of players either still at the start of their career or who nobody in the organization expects to be playing an important role by the time the team is good again. Lane Thomas was a great story this year, as was Joey Meneses in 2022, but does anyone really expect either to be a big part of Washington’s 2027 World Series championship, should that come to pass? The Nats are using this time wisely, and it’s better to look at interesting minor league veterans than washed-up 35-year-olds for the spots you don’t have better prospects to fill. Read the rest of this entry »


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