Jack Flaherty hasn’t quite looked himself since 2019, but the Cardinals were still able to get three prospects for a few months of his services from the Orioles at the trade deadline. The prospect return on the way to St. Louis — whose other deals are covered here, here and here — is made up mostly of near-ready players who should be able to play a role in what we’ve assessed as an attempt to rebuild quickly. The three prospects are Cuban infielder César Prieto, lefty Drew Rom (both of whom were at Triple-A Norfolk), and 19-year-old righty Zack Showalter, who was promoted from the Complex level to Low-A toward the end of June.

While playing pro ball in Cuba, Prieto broke Kendrys Morales‘ rookie hits record and the Serie Nacional’s hit streak record (40 games) in 2020, striking out just six times in 250 plate appearances. The rate of player defections from Cuba significantly diluted the quality of pitching in pro ball down there, so it was difficult to gauge his hit tool with precision. He defected from the Cuban National Team not long after arriving in Miami for an Olympic qualifier in May of 2021 (there’s a riveting Sports Illustrated story that details his “extraction”), and he signed a $650,000 deal with Baltimore at the beginning of the 2022 international signing period.

After torching High-A for a few weeks, Prieto was promoted and spent most of his first minor league season with Double-A Bowie, where he struggled, slashing .255/.296/.348 in 90 games. He halved his strikeout rate when he was sent back to Bowie at the start of 2023, slashed a BABIP-aided .364/.406/.476 and was promoted to Triple-A Norfolk. In about a month prior to the Flaherty trade, he was hitting .317/.365/.471, again with a high BABIP.

Prieto can actually hit. His short levers make him extremely difficult to beat in the strike zone, and he can let the baseball travel deep before striking it the other way, generating doubles power pole-to-pole. His big issue is his propensity to chase, which he did at a 36% clip in 2022 and at a 40% rate so far in 2023, hindering the quality of his contact as well as his ability to reach base. But lefty sticks who make this much contact (91% Z-contact% as of the trade!) tend to carve out some kind of role, especially if they can play multiple positions.

Prieto is a below-average infield athlete and presents a stiff, non-traditional look at both second and third base. He also plays shortstop, but that is not something he’s remotely capable of doing at the big league level. I was hopeful that another full year with pro athletic training facilities and another season of seeing pro-quality pitching after he had access to neither for such a long time would help enable adjustment in these areas, but they’ve continued to be issues. I think the Eric Sogard comp I’ve had on him since his amateur days still holds water. He’s a flawed part-time player, but guys who can hit like this tend to play for a long time.

The other player who should provide a quick turnaround is Rom, an over-slot 11th-round high schooler from the 2018 draft who has slowly climbed through the minors with a cutting low-90s fastball. Especially when he was very young, he looked like he had a chance to break out if he could throw harder as he matured. That hasn’t really happened, and he’s still sitting mostly 90–92 mph, but his fastball still punches above its weight, and he’s managed to strike out more than a batter per inning throughout his pro career. While that likely won’t continue at the big league level because his stuff isn’t nasty enough, he throws enough strikes with his four pitches (if you count his four-seamer and sinker as two different offerings) to project as a depth starter. Already on the 40-man, Rom joins the mix of starters I mentioned in the analysis of the Jordan Montgomery deal as a candidate for the 2024 rotation.

Finally, there’s Showalter, another over-slot 11th-round high schooler, to round out the Cardinals’ return. It took a $440,000 bonus to buy him out of a commitment to USF after last summer’s draft, and he has made a strong pro debut. He generated some scout buzz during Extended Spring Training, then made only a few Complex starts before being promoted to full-season ball a little over a month before the deadline. Showalter works usually three or four innings per outing and sits 93–95 with uphill angle and tail. His delivery is of the open-striding drop-and-drive variety; he keeps his arm action very short and tucked close to his body as he motors toward the plate. It helps keep his release consistent and allows him to hide the baseball well. But he isn’t a fantastic athlete and lacks balance over his landing leg, which is often an indication of relief risk. I’m not yet ready to toss him on the main section of the updated Cardinals prospect list, but he’s a solid low-level arm with a mean outcome of a fastball/slider reliever. Prieto (40 FV, a 1-WAR annual performer who I expect will get 350–400 PA in his best years) and Rom (35+ FV, a spot starter) do make the cut.

This return isn’t enough to alter what I outlined in the Montgomery piece. The Cardinals still have a below-average farm system but have filled up the upper levels during this mini-rebuild and should have the pitching depth to compete for the NL Central next year if their core of hitters stays healthy and performs as expected. As a return for the Jack Flaherty who looked like one of the better pitchers in the NL for a little while, it feels light. But for the recently vanilla, free-agent-to-be Jack Flaherty, it makes sense for St. Louis to have received a few lesser prospects.

When trades occur that aren’t quite big enough to merit their own post, we sometimes compile our analysis into a compendium like this, where we touch on a number of transactions at one time. In this dispatch, I’ll cover the Rays’ trades for upper-level depth (pitchers Manuel Rodríguez and Adrian Sampson from the Cubs, and catcher Alex Jackson from the Brewers), as well as the Mariners/Orioles swap of Logan Rinehart and Eduard Bazardo.

The Rays acquired Adrian Sampson, Manuel Rodríguez, and $220,000 of international free agent bonus pool space from the Cubs for minor league pitcher Josh Roberson. Sampson, 31, was originally the Pirates’ 2012 fifth round pick. He made the big leagues with the Mariners in 2016 and then began to hop around the fringes of various rosters, which is part of what led to his 2020 jaunt to the KBO before a return to MLB with the Cubs. He made 19 starts for the Cubbies in 2022 as a long-term injury replacement, but he has missed most of 2023 due to a knee surgery from which he only recently returned. Sampson has been sitting 90-91 mph during each of his last two minor league starts. He does not occupy a 40-man roster spot and should be considered injury replacement depth for the Rays. Read the rest of this entry »

When trades occur that aren’t quite big enough to merit their own post, we sometimes compile our analysis into a compendium like this, where we touch on a number of transactions at one time. In this dispatch, I’ll cover the Reds’ acquisition of Sam Moll from Oakland, the Cubs’ trade for Jose Cuas from Kansas City, and the Diamondbacks’ trade for Jace Peterson, also from Oakland.

While the two teams tilted at Wrigley, the Cubs and Reds added interesting relief options to their managers’ toolkits. The Reds traded hard-throwing prospect Joe Boyle to the A’s for lefty Sam Moll and international pool space, while the Cubs traded outfielder Nelson Velázquez to the Royals for sidearm righty Jose Cuas. Read the rest of this entry »

The Cardinals are officially engaging in a moderate short-term rebuild, trading Jordan Hicks to Toronto for pitching prospects Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein, and Jordan Montgomery to Texas for righty Tekoah Roby, infielder Thomas Saggese, and reliever John King. Each of these players could suit up for the Cardinals in the big leagues within the next 12 months, especially King (already a big leaguer) and the two pitchers coming back from Toronto, who will likely be added to the 40-man roster after the season. Roby and Saggese have spent their 2023 seasons at Double-A Frisco and are within range of the majors even though they don’t have to be put on the 40-man until after the 2024 slate. You can see where each of the newly-acquired prospects falls on the Cardinals list over on The Board.

Let’s start by going over the Montgomery return, since the most significant prospect acquired by the Cardinals comes over in that deal. Roby, 21, moved onto the Top 100 prospects list when I updated the Rangers system a couple of weeks ago, and he would have been even higher if not for his current shoulder injury, which shelved him in early June. Before he was shut down, Roby was consistently working with four plus pitches. He was sitting 94–95 mph with riding life, bending in one of the nastier curveballs in the minors, tilting in a similarly shaped slider in the mid-80s, and turning over a tailing low-80s changeup, all of which were capable of missing bats. He looked like a contender’s four-pitch, mid-rotation starter, like a less physical Hunter Brown.

Roby’s delivery does have some violence, but he’s always thrown strikes in spite of this. He is slightly undersized (but well-built) at 6-foot-1 and has now had arm injuries in two of his three pro seasons, so there’s definitely relief risk here despite his strike-throwing track record. From a stuff and pitch execution standpoint, he is where Jack Leiter was expected to be when he was drafted. On upside, Roby is a huge get for the Cardinals and could be the big league club’s best starting pitcher within a year or two. Once healthy, he has a chance to kick down the door, though shoulder issues can be particularly scary and destabilizing to a young pitcher’s career. Read the rest of this entry »

The Dodgers are getting at least some of the old band back together with Tuesday’s reacquisition of Enrique Hernández. The 32-year-old super-utilityman returns (along with cash considerations) via trade with the Red Sox in exchange for pitchers Nick Robertson and Justin Hagenman. Hernández, who signed a one-year, $10 million pact with Boston during the offseason, is hitting a career-worst .222/.279/.320 (60 wRC+). The Red Sox are picking up roughly $2.5 million of the deal’s remaining money to improve their return, receiving multiple polished, back-of-the-40-man arms in Hagenman and Robertson.

This season is the second consecutive year of declining offensive performance for Hernández, who has been a below-average hitter for most of the last five years. The decline is consistent across a variety of statistical categories, and there are no underlying signs that might indicate a bounce back or positive regression, but Hernández is still a capable defender at second base and (most importantly in this case) in center field. A June injury to Trayce Thompson eventually begat a deal for defensive specialist Jake Marisnick, whose recent hamstring injury again left the Dodgers thin in center. James Outman, whose hit tool has had a violent regression to the mean after a hot start, has seen the lion’s share of reps in center this year, while Jason Heyward and rookie Jonny Deluca have each played there a handful of times. All three are capable center field defenders but none of them is great, and you can make a coherent argument that Hernández is the best healthy center field defender on the Dodgers 40-man right now. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is a team-by-team analysis of last night’s draft activity. Remember that you can find more detailed scouting reports and tool grades for the players drafted over on The Board.

Arizona drafted a mix of floor and upside on Day One, adding a relatively stable, Top 100 prospect to their mix in Troy before taking two college dev projects in Grice and Groover. Groover is one of the most exciting players in the draft because his bat speed is ridiculous, though he needs refinement in many areas, especially defense. Lefties with a breaking ball as good as Grice’s tend to pan out, if only as relievers, but Grice could break out if he focuses solely on pitching. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

If you’d like to learn more about the players mentioned here, you’ll find rankings and scouting reports over on The Board. There is more context for these names on my first mock, which is here. I’ll be chatting live from Lumen Field tonight at 4 PT/7 ET, Woj’ing picks and providing reaction and analysis. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Texas Rangers. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the third year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but I use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Here is a mock draft compiled using a combination of industry rumors, deductive reasoning, and pattern recognition of teams’ past behavior. I go down to pick 39, the end of Competitive Balance Round A, so that I get to touch on every team at least once. If you’d like to learn more about the players mentioned here, you’ll find rankings and scouting reports over on The Board. Some teams settled in for pre-draft meetings a few days ago, while others begin them today and tomorrow. The general industry sentiment is that buzz will grow and change between now and the weekend. In the event that I learn enough pertinent info between now and the draft, we’ll have another mock of just names up shortly before the first round kicks off. I’ll be chatting live from Lumen Field on Sunday during the draft, Woj’ing picks and providing reaction and analysis while pretending I’m putting a spin move on Walter Jones. Read the rest of this entry »