Due to the delayed start to the season, we’ve only now finished one month of play in the regular season. And while there are still plenty of games left, we’re already seeing the best teams pull away from their competition as a few disappointing teams continue to dig themselves into a hole.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has OAA/RAA from Statcast available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck” — adjusting a team’s win percentage based on their expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking which is then presented in tiers below.

The Yankees’ win streak was snapped at 11 games on Wednesday, and their weekend series against the Rangers was interrupted by the bad weather that disrupted games all along the East Coast, with a doubleheader on Sunday and the third game rescheduled for Monday afternoon. Those two rainouts mean the Yankees will play 23 games in 22 days; as easy as their early schedule has been, this stretch will really test their depth and endurance.

The rain disrupted the Mets, too. They already had a weird week with a scheduled doubleheader against the Braves on Tuesday, a makeup for the games missed due to the lockout. Then, on Thursday, New York had its signature win for the season so far, rallying against the Phillies and scoring seven runs in the ninth inning to erase a 7–1 deficit. Games on Friday and Saturday were canceled, giving the team two days to bask in the glory of the comeback victory before splitting a doubleheader on Sunday.

The Dodgers swept the banged-up Giants in two games, then finished the week by taking three straight against the Cubs in Chicago, outscoring those two teams 32–5. Mookie Betts has finally awoken from a slow start to lead the offense, collecting three home runs during his current nine-game hitting streak. Even more encouraging is Cody Bellinger’s bounce-back campaign after an injury-riddled 2021 season. Read the rest of this entry »

When the Red Sox traveled to Toronto in late April, they had to shuffle their roster around to comply with Canada’s vaccination entry requirements. The biggest impact was felt in their starting rotation, as Tanner Houck had to be placed on the restricted list due to his vaccination status. In his stead, Boston turned to Garrett Whitlock to make a start against the Blue Jays. It was actually Whitlock’s second start of the season; he had made a spot start for Rich Hill the week prior and made a third start yesterday against the Angels. In those three starts, he’s allowed just three runs while striking out 18 batters in 12 innings.

Whitlock’s first start in the major leagues was fantastic. He held the Rays to just a single hit in four innings while striking out seven. It took him just 48 pitches to carve through Tampa Bay’s lineup. In Toronto, he wasn’t as dominant, giving up one unearned run on four hits and two walks. He ended up laboring through just three innings, but threw 61 pitches, the most he’s thrown in a single game in the big leagues. Against the Angels, he struck out nine batters and allowed two hits including a two-run home run by Max Stassi. He was stretched out to 78 pitches on Wednesday evening and completed a strong five innings.

It’s a fascinating role change for Whitlock, who was arguably Boston’s best reliever in 2021. Last year, he put up a 1.96 ERA and a 2.84 FIP in 46 appearances out of the ‘pen with a phenomenal 4.76 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His success was all the more impressive given his path to the majors. Tommy John surgery and the canceled minor league season in 2020 had kept the former Yankees prospect off the mound since July of ’19. Because he was still rehabbing from his injury from the previous year, New York left him off their 40-man roster after the 2020 season in the hopes that he could sneak through without a recent scouting look, but Boston selected him in the Rule 5 draft. The Red Sox took a chance on his skills and minor league track record and found a gem. Read the rest of this entry »

Another week of the 2022 season is in the books and there’s been some significant movement in the power rankings. We’re still at the point where a hot or cold week can really change the outlook for a team, but we’re also starting to see some clubs separate themselves from the pack — for good or for ill.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on their expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking that is then presented in tiers below.

It’s a good time to be a baseball fan in New York. Both the Yankees and Mets have been playing fantastic baseball to start the season and both teams lead their respective divisions after a month of play. The Yanks rattled off a nine-game win streak with sweeps of the Guardians, Orioles, and the Royals. It took a little while for their bats to wake up earlier in the season, but they scored 7.4 runs per game during this stretch, including four games with double digit run totals. Unsurprisingly, it’s been their sluggers who have led the way. Anthony Rizzo’s nine home runs lead all of baseball, with a three dinger day on Tuesday and another on Friday padding his total. Not to be outdone, Aaron Judge blasted five homers last week, including two on Sunday. Read the rest of this entry »

The Mariners were the “luckiest” team in the majors last year. The combination of timely hits in key situations and a great bullpen earned them an incredible 33–19 record in one-run games and 90 wins total, but they couldn’t count on that same blueprint earning them success in 2022. But instead of hoping for clutch hits to squeak out wins, this year’s Mariners have one of the most potent offenses in the majors, leading all of baseball with a 129 wRC+, backed by the best walk rate and fifth-best strikeout rate in the majors. They’ve gotten great contributions from J.P. Crawford, Eugenio Suárez, and Mitch Haniger, but the man leading the charge is Ty France.

During the Mariners’ opening homestand, France collected 18 hits, two doubles, four home runs, and drove in 15 runs. His slash line during those nine games: .474/.524/.842, good for a 309 wRC+ and AL co-Player of the Week honors last week (which he shared with Miguel Cabrera, newest member of the 3,000 hit club). On Saturday against the Royals, France collected five hits, scored three times, drove in five, and blasted a three-run home run in the bottom of the eighth inning to put a dagger in a Kansas City comeback attempt. The next day, he homered in his first at-bat and collected another two hits. It got so bad that the Royals simply intentionally walked him when he came up to bat first in the decisive 12th inning.

This guy flat out rakes. #SeaUsRise pic.twitter.com/1MSOVHJTir

— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) April 25, 2022

Raking isn’t anything new for France. He put up a career .294/.389/.470 slash line (135 wRC+) in the minor leagues coming up through the Padres’ farm system and essentially forced his way onto the major league roster after batting .316/.401/.576 at Triple-A across 2018 and ‘19. But he struggled a bit in his first taste of the majors, slipping to just an 84 wRC+ in 201 plate appearances in ‘19, and was traded to the Mariners in August 2020 in the big Austin Nola deal.

Since then, France has been one of Seattle’s most consistent hitters. Last year, he posted a 129 wRC+ and 3.1 WAR as the Mariners’ everyday first baseman. An early wrist injury hurt his overall numbers a bit; from April 27 through May 13, he collected just three hits in 56 plate appearances. He went on the Injured List a day later and returned after the minimum stay, and from that point on, he’s been phenomenal. Combined with his hot start this year, he’s batted .317/.389/.492 with a 151 wRC+ in 571 plate appearances since May 24; that’s the fifth-best wRC+ among all qualified batters in the majors during that period. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re a little over two weeks into the 2022 season, which means it’s time to start assessing the teams that have gotten off to a hot start and those that have struggled. It’s way too early to draw any meaningful conclusions yet, but there are some teams who have shown real improvements so far, and others that have fallen flat despite lofty expectations.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated. First, we take three most important components of a team — offense (wRC+) and starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by innings) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has OAA/RAA from Statcast available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck” — adjusting a team’s win percentage based on their expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking which is then presented in tiers below.

No one can really compete with the Dodgers. They possess the best record and the best run differential in baseball, and their Pythagorean win percentage says they “should have” won an extra game too. Their offense has gotten off to a bit of a slow start with Mookie Betts and Justin Turner both mired in early slumps. Luckily, Cody Bellinger’s bat is finally showing signs of life after taking the last two seasons off; he blasted two home runs on Sunday afternoon in a 10–2 drubbing of the Padres. Los Angeles’ pitching staff, meanwhile, has allowed the fewest runs in baseball thus far, with a revitalized Clayton Kershaw leading the way. Read the rest of this entry »

When the Angels signed Michael Lorenzen this offseason, it was hard to say what to expect from him. A longtime member of the Reds’ bullpen for nearly his entire major league career, he entered his first time through free agency looking for an opportunity to start again; making that jump to the rotation came with all sorts of uncertainty. But after just two starts for his hometown team, the early returns have been promising.

The former 38th overall pick began his career as a member of the Reds’ rotation, making 21 starts during his rookie season back in 2015 but posting a 5.45 ERA and a 5.48 FIP and getting relegated to the bullpen by the end of the year. He enjoyed a bit of success in shorter outings the next year and wound up in that role for the rest of his time in Cincinnati. At various points during his time there, Lorenzen regularly expressed a desire to return to the rotation, but spring injuries often played a role in pushing him back to the bullpen. In 2016, it was a sprained ligament in his elbow; in ‘18, a shoulder injury. He was on track to join the rotation last spring until another shoulder injury derailed that plan again.

The fact that Lorenzen made it through spring training without an injury and actually made a start this season has to be seen as an accomplishment. Not only that, but his first outing against the Marlins was outstanding: two hits over six innings and a single run that scored on a Jesús Sánchez solo home run. He didn’t walk a batter and struck out seven. His next start was a much stiffer challenge against the Astros in Houston, where he lasted into the fourth inning but was done in by a lapse in command, issuing a walk and hit by pitch both with the bases loaded. He wound up allowing four runs on four hits and two walks in 3.1 innings of work, striking out two.

While the start in Houston didn’t go as well as his first, Lorenzen has shown some interesting changes to his pitch arsenal that could indicate some more success on the horizon. In his postgame comments after his Angels debut, he discussed his pitch profile:

“I worked really hard this offseason to get my stuff where it needs to be. It’s a lot more fun in the rotation. I’m able to use everything and set guys up certain ways for the next time through. It’s just more fun to do that instead of being limited. I have too many pitches to be limited in the bullpen, so I was just able to take advantage of my pitch profile.”

Even as a reliever, Lorenzen continued to use a full, six-pitch repertoire. He leaned on his four-seam fastball and cutter for the most part, but also sprinkled in a sinker, changeup, slider, and curveball. Read the rest of this entry »

With Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer fronting their rotation, the Mets were theoretically spoiled for choices when picking an Opening Day starter. Or at least, they would have been if deGrom hadn’t been hurt and Scherzer hadn’t picked up a few minor injuries of his own during the spring, throwing off his schedule a bit. Of course, New York also traded for Chris Bassitt during the offseason; he was the Oakland A’s Opening Day starter in 2021. They’ve also got a healthy Carlos Carrasco, who might have taken on the role during his Cleveland tenure were it not for Corey Kluber. Thus, it was rather surprising to see Tylor Megill take the mound last Thursday night.

While the start was certainly an honor for Megill, his throwing schedule also lined up most closely with the occasion. “It fit where he was. Not necessarily his pitch count, but his work load and experience factor,” said manager Buck Showalter after picking him. It’s a fun bit of trivia for the history books, but after the pre-game pomp and circumstance, Megill’s performance met the moment. He dazzled over five innings of work, holding the Nationals scoreless, allowing just three baserunners and striking out six. The biggest revelation of the evening was a fastball that was suddenly sitting 96 mph and that touched 99 mph, no doubt aided by the adrenaline of the first inning. In his second start of the season yesterday, Megill held the Phillies scoreless over 5.1 innings, allowing just three baserunners and striking out five. It’s just 10 innings and 144 pitches, but it certainly seems as though Megill’s entire arsenal — and not just his heater — has taken a step forward this year.

An eighth round pick in 2018 out of Arizona, Megill peaked at 25th on the 2021 Mets prospect list. His fastball sat in the low-90s in college and in his first taste of pro ball. After the cancelled 2020 minor league season, he showed up to spring training last year regularly throwing 94 mph, and that velocity increase stuck when he made his major league debut in late June. Now his fastball is up another tick and a half. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back, baseball! After a prolonged offseason rife with drama and surprises, Opening Day is finally upon us. Last year, I introduced these power rankings as a way to think about all 30 teams in baseball and stack them up against each other outside the rigid structures of leagues or divisions. Nearly every major site has some form of power rankings, usually derived from whatever panel of experts each site employs. These rankings, though, are entirely data driven.

First, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-) — and weight and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. For these Opening Day power rankings, I’ve used each team’s projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has OAA/RAA from Statcast available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. For just this run of rankings, I’ve used the projected fielding component of WAR that appears on our Depth Charts projections. Read the rest of this entry »

The plight of the Los Angeles Angels is well known by now. Despite employing two generational talents in Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, they’ve made the playoffs just once in the last 12 seasons. Even worse, they’ve had a winning record in just four of those 12 seasons, and haven’t finished above .500 since going 85-77 in 2015. It’s not for lack of trying either. They’ve signed plenty of big name free agents to massive contracts to try and get them over the hump. Those efforts haven’t paid off yet, however, and the latest veteran to get kicked to the curb before hitting free agency is Justin Upton, who was designated for assignment on Sunday with a year left on his contract.

Since 2011, the Angels have signed four free agents to contracts that are five years or longer, with four additional extensions of similar length. The track record for those signings has been pretty ghastly:

C.J. Wilson, Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols, and Upton didn’t finish out their contract term with the Angels, while the jury is still out on Rendon; Mike Trout’s deals can comfortably be scored wins. Injuries cut Wilson’s career short while a combination of injury and off-field issues led the Angels to trade Hamilton just two years into his huge contract. Pujols’s production in Anaheim was a shadow of his career-defining tenure in St. Louis, though he did manage some late season magic for the Dodgers last year. He’ll finish out his career where it started. By signing all of these players to large, long-term contracts, the Angels were doing exactly what you’d expect them to do in their position: spend to supplement their established stars. Its unfortunate, then, that the majority of these contracts didn’t pan out, particularly when pitching remained such a consistent need. Read the rest of this entry »

On Thursday morning, the Blue Jays and Rockies agreed to a trade sending Randal Grichuk and cash considerations to Colorado, with Raimel Tapia and minor league infielder Adrian Pinto joining Toronto. Rob Gillies of The Associated Press reports that the amount of cash is just over $9.7 million, which accounts for nearly half of the remaining salary on Grichuk’s five-year contract. With this move, the Blue Jays get the left-handed outfielder they had been searching for, and the Rockies get another power hitter to plug into the middle of their lineup.

Grichuk signed that five-year extension (worth $52 million) after putting up 2.1 WAR in 2018, his first season in Toronto. He blasted 31 home runs the next year, but that power was the only positive aspect of his approach at the plate. Over the last three years, his offensive output has been nine percent below league average, and that’s despite an ISO that sits a hair above .200. His biggest issue has been getting on base at a regular clip. His walk rate has been remarkably consistent, sitting around 5.8% over the last six years, though it dipped to its lowest point since his rookie season last year. With a batted-ball profile focused on fly ball contact, his BABIP isn’t much better.

In the field, Grichuk has been a solid defender across all three outfield positions. Splitting his time between center and right field over the last few years, the advanced defensive metrics rate his work in the corner a little higher than up the middle. All three metrics were disappointed in his ability to cover enough ground in the field as the Blue Jays’ full-time center fielder in 2020. But moved over to right in ’21, he graded out as one of the better fielders at the position on a per-inning basis, accumulating 6 DRS and 5.5 UZR in just 330.1 innings. Read the rest of this entry »