Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the April 1 edition of my chat. This April fool is still recovering from having accidentally sent my mom’s birthday gift to my Brooklyn apartment instead of her Salt Lake City residence.
Jay Jaffe: But… that’s about to change. I’ll cover the Pollock/Kimbrel trade for Monday — had to see it about 18 times before I was willing to concede it was real and not an April 1 conspiracy on the part of the industry’s newsbreakers.
Yesterday Jason Martinez and Jon Tayler previewed left and center field. Now we round out the outfield positions in right.
Last year was a banner one for right fielders. For starters, Bryce Harper and Juan Soto finished first and second in National League MVP voting, that after ranking first and third in the majors in wRC+, and finishing in a virtual tie for third in WAR. Aaron Judge and Kyle Tucker both ranked among the majors’ top seven hitters by wRC+ as well, with the former cracking the top 10 in WAR, too. Seven of the top 30 qualified hitters by wRC+ were right fielders, even with Mookie Betts grinding through a comparatively subpar season where he was beset by a bone spur in his hip and Ronald Acuña Jr. falling short of qualifying due to a torn ACL that ended his season in July, perhaps costing him the NL MVP award. Meanwhile, Nick Castellanos, who ranked 13th in the majors in wRC+, was one of seven position players to net a $100 million free agent contract this winter, though he’s bound for more DH and left field duty with the Phillies. Read the rest of this entry »
Yesterday, Meg Rowley introduced this year’s rankings, while Dan Szymborski examined the state of the league’s catchers. Today, we turn our attention to first and second basemen, starting with some first base thumpers.
First base is back, baby! Just two years ago in this space, I lamented that the position ain’t what it used to be, production-wise. Not only had the position’s big boppers from the previous few years fallen upon hard times, but in both 2018 and ’19, first basemen as a group had hit for just a 108 wRC+, their lowest mark since at least 2002 (as far back as our splits for this go). In 2021 however, first sackers combined to put together their best season since 2017, by multiple measures.
Such things tend to run in cycles, with turnover driving changes, and indeed, the overall leader in both wRC+ and WAR among first baseman last year was 22-year-old Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who in his first full season at the position made a run at the Triple Crown. Meanwhile, 27-year-old Matt Olson ranked second in both wRC+ and WAR; not coincidentally, he and Guerrero top the rankings here. But beyond that pair and the routinely excellent Freddie Freeman, the position’s resurgence was driven by the old guard, as Paul Goldschmidt and Joey Votto, two of the game’s best first basemen from 2015-18, rebounded to help provide some thump. Read the rest of this entry »
After escaping last place in the American League Central for just the second time in five years in 2021, the Detroit Tigers have signaled that they’re ready to contend, committing over $230 million this offseason to free agents Javier Báez, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Andrew Chafin. On Friday, they added another free agent of note, signing Michael Pineda to a one-year deal.
The 33-year-old Pineda, who spent the past four seasons with the Twins, is guaranteed $5.5 million, with an additional $375,000 apiece for surpassing the 50-, 75-, 100-, and 125-inning thresholds, and another $500,000 for surpassing the 150- and 175-inning thresholds. That’s a maximum of $2.5 million in incentives and $8 million in total salary if he throws at least 175 innings.
Pineda hasn’t reached that total in a single season since 2016, when he was a member of the Yankees. Since then, he’s thrown just 378.1 innings at the major league level, having missed half of 2017 and all of ’18 due to Tommy John surgery, drawing a 60-game PED suspension late in ’19 that carried over into the following year, and then missing about eight weeks last season due to an abscess on his inner thigh, an inflamed elbow, and a strained oblique. It appears that he’ll miss some time to start this season due to work visa issues, which could keep him out of camp for another week or two.
When he was healthy, the 6-foot-7, 280-pound righty — “Big Mike,” of course — pitched reasonably well last year, at least from a superficial standpoint, as he posted a 3.62 ERA (83 ERA-) and 4.12 FIP (98 FIP-) in 109.1 innings. Beyond the ERA, however, there were reasons to be concerned. The average velocity of his low-spin four-seam fastball was down nearly two full ticks compared to 2019 (from 92.5 mph to 90.6) — I’m skipping his five-start ’20 here — and four compared to ’16, when he averaged 94.6 mph. From 2019 to ’21, his strikeout rate fell more than four percentage points (from 23.3% to a career-low 19.2%) and his swinging strikeout rate two points (from 12.5% to a career-low 10.5%). Read the rest of this entry »
On the day the Dodgers made the signing of longtime Braves star Freddie Freeman official, Atlanta turned around and poached one of Los Angeles’ high-profile free agents. Kenley Jansen, a three-time All-Star who has spent the last 10 years as the Dodgers’ closer, has joined the Braves via a one-year, $16 million deal.
The 34-year-old Jansen is coming off his best season since 2017, pitching to a 2.22 ERA and 3.08 FIP in 69 innings, saving 38 games in 43 chances, and producing 1.8 WAR. He was extremely difficult to hit, holding batters to a .153 average (his lowest since 2016) and .233 slugging percentage (his lowest since ’11). Contact-wise, he held hitters to an 84.0 mph average exit velocity, .260 xwOBA, and 4.6% barrel rate, which respectively placed him in the 99th, 93rd, and 92nd percentile.
If there was a blemish on Jansen’s season it was his 12.9% walk rate, his highest since his cup-of-coffee season in 2010; when combined with his 30.9% strikeout rate, it produced an 18.0% strikeout-to-walk differential, the lowest of his career. Jansen was able to compensate thanks to his sequencing and his ability to limit hard contact, though he took the Dodgers and their fans on some rollercoaster rides. For what it’s worth, while he walked 28 in his first 40.1 innings through the end of July (16.3%), he walked just eight in 28.2 innings (7.5%) the rest of the way, that while posting a 35.8% strikeout rate. Read the rest of this entry »
Jay Jaffe: and when I haven’t been covering transactions I’ve been burrowing into my Positional Power Rankings assignments. First up: first base, where you might have heard about a few transactions
2:03
>this guy<: Jay what is your favorite trade or signing since the lockout ended? and least fav?
2:06
Jay Jaffe: I don’t like anything about the Reds’ sequence of deals. Saw them as contenders for a Wild Card spot with a little TLC but they seem intent upon getting into the draft lottery.
2:07
Jay Jaffe: I’m not wild about the Rizzo signing by the Yankees but the projections for him are stronger than my gut instinct. And I’m still not sure what to make of the Kris Bryant deal
Zack Greinke is coming full circle. On Wednesday, the 38-year-old righthander agreed to a one-year contract with the Royals, the team that drafted him in 2002 and stayed with him through low points and high over the course of seven big-league seasons (2004–10), the pinnacle of which was his AL Cy Young award win in ’09. The Greinke deal headlined a busy day for the Royals, who additionally swapped lefties with the Reds, sending 34-year-old starter Mike Minor and cash to Cincinnati in exchange for 29-year-old reliever Amir Garrett.
Via the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, Greinke’s deal guarantees him $13 million, with an additional $2 million in potential bonuses based on innings pitched. Despite the Royals coming off a 74-win season and not looking much stronger for 2022 (though our Playoff Odds give them a 10.7% chance of joining the expanded party), Greinke had this destination in mind. Via MLB.com’s Anne Rogers:
Greinke on the #Royals: "This was a team I singled out that I wanted to play for. It was my No. 1 choice. The only thing that would have made it a little tough is if pitchers were still allowed to hit. That would have opened up a lot of teams I would want to play for in the NL."
Though he helped the Astros reach the World Series for the second time in less than three full seasons in Houston, Greinke had an uneven 2021 campaign. Prior to landing on the COVID-19 injured list in early September, he led the AL in innings pitched, though he struggled upon returning; his ERA went up more than half a run, and he wound up finishing 11th with 179 innings. His overall 4.16 ERA was his highest mark since 2016, his first year with the Diamondbacks after signing a six-year, $206.5 million deal, but more jarring was his 4.71 FIP, the worst mark of his career.
While Greinke was typically stingy with walks, posting the AL’s second-lowest rate among qualifiers (5.2%), his 1.58 homers per nine allowed was the AL’s second-highest mark and the highest of his career since his 2004 rookie season. Meanwhile, his 17.2% strikeout rate and 12.1% strikeout-walk differential were his worst marks since 2005 (I’m throwing out his three-appearance 2006 for all of these comparisons). Read the rest of this entry »
Historically speaking, things have rarely worked out well for the Rockies when they’ve written large checks. Just limiting the timeframe to the past 12 years, the free agent signings of Ian Desmond and Wade Davis were disasters, and they bailed on homegrown stars Troy Tulowitzki and Nolan Arenado well before reaching the halfway point of their long-term deals, having suddenly decided they couldn’t afford to build around them. Yet even with those unhappy examples in mind, it’s tough to comprehend their signing of Kris Bryant to a seven-year, $182 million contract, a deal that was announced on Wednesday.
Even with the signing of Freddie Freeman, the news of which broke later on Wednesday night, the Bryant deal is the offseason’s second-largest thus far, after Corey Seager‘s 10-year, $325 million contract with the Rangers, and it’s forth in average annual value, behind Max Scherzer’s $43.3 million, Seager’s $32.5 million, and Freeman’s $27 million. It’s the second-largest contract in Rockies history, after their eight-year, $260 million extension for Arenado. We’ll get to him.
Bryant has an impressive resumé that includes an NL Rookie of the Year award in 2015, an NL MVP award and a World Series ring a year later, and All-Star appearances in both of those years plus ’19 and ’21. From 2015-17, he ranked among the top position players in the game, batting .288/.388/.527; his slugging percentage and 94 homers both ranked 16th in the majors, while his 144 wRC+ ranked 12th, and his 20.6 WAR third behind only Mike Trout (25.8) and Josh Donaldson (21.8). Yet his career over the four seasons since has been uneven, with injury-marred campaigns alternating with good-but-not-great ones. For that latter period, he’s hit .268/.364/.479 with 73 homers, a 124 wRC+ (tied for 44th), and 11.1 WAR, maxing out at 4.7 in 2019. He’s been a very good player, with power, patience, and defensive versatility. In 2021 alone, he made 47 starts at third base, 35 in left field, 33 in right field, 13 in center field, and 10 at first base.
Still, that latter stretch does not eyeball as the credentials of a player in line for a seven-year, $182 million commitment starting at age 30, not even from a free-spending owner like the Mets’ Steve Cohen. And yet it’s come from the Rockies, who just over 13 months ago traded Arenado — whom the team had signed to that franchise-record extension in February 2019 — to the Cardinals along with $51 million dollars (!) in exchange for five players, four of them prospects. Arenado and the Rockies had been at odds since late 2019, near the end of a 91-loss season that he said “feels like a rebuild,” offending the delicate sensibilities of owner Dick Monfort and then-general manager Jeff Bridich. Their subsequent failure to sign even one major league free agent the following winter only exacerbated tensions, making a parting of the ways necessary.
While an analysis of the Bryant signing shouldn’t be about Arenado, or Trevor Story, the two-time All-Star shortstop whom the team refused to trade last summer before letting him walk away as a free agent, one can’t help but feel as though this is Monfort overcompensating. The Rockies are overpaying a free agent with money that would have been better spent on retaining at least one of those players. Both had six-win seasons as recently as 2019 (versus ’17 for Bryant). Both are within a year of Bryant’s age, Arenado older by nine months, Story younger by 10. And both were homegrown — retaining them would have provided welcome continuity. Bryant may be a better hitter than either of them; even limiting the scope to the past three seasons, his 123 wRC+ outdistances Arenado’s 116 and Story’s 113, and his projection for 2022 is higher. Yet he’s been the least valuable of the three over the past three years because he’s not a top-flight defender at a premium position; his 8.7 WAR for that stretch is a distant third behind Arenado’s 11.1 and Story’s 12.0, and he projects to fall even further behind.
And when I say overpaying… we’ll get to that, but first, Bryant’s 2021 season. After battling nagging injuries — back stiffness, left elbow, left wrist, and more — through a dismal 2020, during which he managed just a 75 wRC+ (.206/.293/.351), he was much better last year, though his power fell off notably after a July 30 trade to the Giants amid the Cubs’ ongoing fire sale. He hit .267/.358/.503 (129 wRC+) before the deal, and .262/.344/.444 (113 wRC+) after. While he posted his best barrel rate (10.3%) and average exit velocity (88.2 mph) since 2016, those aren’t exactly remarkable numbers, with the former ranking in the 67th percentile, the latter in just the 29th.
As for the size of his contract, in our Top 50 Free Agents roundup, Ben Clemens predicted Bryant would receive an eight-year, $200 million deal, while the median crowdsource had him at six years and $150 million. Outside the FanGraphs fold, MLB Trade Rumors had him at $160 million over six years. In a lockout-fevered exercise connecting free agent hitters to teams, however, Dan Szymborski noted that his ZiPS-driven valuation — his multiyear projection times a dollars per win estimate — was for just $67 million over four years, though he himself predicted it would take more to sign him, coming in at $90 million over four years. While the AAVs from Ben, Dan (not ZiPS), and our crowdsource aren’t really that far apart, ranging from $22.5 million to $25 million, the ratio of the amounts at the extremes was larger than two to one.
I’ll admit I had forgotten about all of those numbers when the news of Bryant’s deal came down, particularly when Dan handed off his seven-year projection:
ZiPS Projection – Kris Bryant (Left Field)
Year
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SB
OPS+
DR
WAR
2022
.285
.370
.515
515
88
147
33
2
27
80
58
8
121
-1
2.6
2023
.281
.367
.510
484
81
136
32
2
25
75
55
7
119
-1
2.3
2024
.279
.363
.500
466
76
130
30
2
23
70
52
6
116
-2
1.9
2025
.271
.355
.471
442
69
120
27
2
19
62
47
5
107
-3
1.2
2026
.267
.346
.452
409
61
109
24
2
16
53
41
4
100
-3
0.7
2027
.259
.335
.417
343
48
89
19
1
11
41
32
4
89
-3
0.0
2028
.255
.327
.397
239
31
61
11
1
7
26
20
2
82
-3
-0.3
This is for Bryant as a left fielder, since the Rockies have reason to be happy with Ryan McMahon’s stellar defense at third base last year. Projecting Bryant at third doesn’t change much, with an extra 0.2 WAR in three of the first four seasons but some of that coming off the back end. The valuations for the two projections: $67 million for the left field version and $70 million for the third base one, both more than $100 million shy of the investment the Rockies just made. Sweet fancy Moses.
I asked Dan if he could recall similar instances of projected valuations that far below the actual deals, and he cited the $200-million-plus pacts of Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and Alex Rodriguez (post-opt-out), particularly recalling Pujols’ valuation coming in at $131 million for his 10-year, $240 million deal. On Ryan Howard’s five-year, $125 million extension, ZiPS was “only” $75 million under. What those contracts all had in common was that they hailed from an era before analytics had permeated front offices. The only recent contract Dan could recall that overshot ZiPS by such a wide margin was that of Eric Hosmer; with Dan valuing Hosmer’s opt-out at $17 million, his estimate came in at $81 million for what he treated as a $161 million deal (instead of $144 million). None of those contracts, even the contemporary one, aged well. In that light, if Bryant’s deal is that far above projections, yikes.
But maybe it’s not as bad as it looks. Bryant did put up 3.6 WAR last year, and 4.7 in 2019; that’s 8.3 WAR over two seasons separated by a 34-game struggle while the player and the rest of the world were an utter mess. Maybe ZiPS is putting too much stock in that, and maybe he starts this deal with two or three seasons in the four-win range before tapering off as he moves down the defensive spectrum.
It’s worth noting that according to Statcast, Bryant has outslugged expectations; last year, he outdid his .449 xSLG by 32 points, and in 2019, he outdid his .457 xSLG by 64 points. In those two years, he added a combined 11 homers beyond expectations (six last year, five in 2019). While one could look at that and believe that the 2016 edition of Bryant, with the .554 slugging percentage and .566 xSLG, isn’t coming back, perhaps the increased carry for fly balls at high altitude will pay off for a player with a career groundball/fly ball ratio of just 0.81. Sure, maybe my rose-colored glasses are smarter than Dan’s machine. As evidenced by those other estimates I cited, it’s not like the entire industry views him as ZiPS does — some intelligent people really do see him as a player worth investing $150 million or more.
Setting the valuation aside, one can be happy that Bryant, whose free agency was delayed by a year due to the Cubs’ service-time manipulation, is getting his big payday. He’s a very entertaining player who will hit some towering home runs and give Rockies fans a star to cheer for following the departures of Arenado and Story. Undoubtedly, in the short-term he makes the Rockies better and more watchable. This is a team that lost 87 games last year, one whose outfielders combined for a major league-worst 81 wRC+, and just 3.8 WAR. Left fielder Raimel Tapia may have blazing speed, but he hit for a 76 wRC+ and produced 0.3 WAR. Center fielder Garrett Hampson was a worse hitter (65 wRC+) but ever so slightly more valuable due to defense (0.5 WAR), and right fielder Charlie Blackmon was a long way from his All-Star days (94 wRC+, 1.5 WAR). Plug Bryant in for any of them and it’s an upgrade of at least a couple of wins.
The problem is that still won’t be nearly enough to catch the Dodgers, Giants, and Padres (oh my!). Even with a rotation that has three reasonably solid starters (Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, and Austin Gomber) behind staff ace Germán Márquez, that unit projects as the majors’ eighth-worst, and they’re several roster additions away from being a team that can contend. Assuming Blackmon slides into the DH role, they need two good outfielders, a shortstop to replace Story (they’re not winning anything with late-stage José Iglesias there, sorry), and a much better bullpen than the one that currently projects as the very worst in the majors.
So the real question is where do the Rockies go from here? Will Monfort continue to spend money to build around that rotation, which has Márquez under control through 2024, Freeland through ’23, and Senzatela through ’27? Can a front office that experienced a regime change last year (Bridich resigned in late April, replaced by long-time vice president of scouting Bill Schmidt) and recently fired its head of analytics, Scott Van Lenten, after just seven months, point them in the right direction? Or will Monfort and company decide in 2024 or ’25 that it’s just too tough to build around another aging and expensive star and make another trade that sets the franchise back (though as with Arenado, they’ll need Bryant’s buy-in, as his deal features a full no-trade clause)?
Those questions are unanswerable at the moment. What we know is that Bryant has found a home via a big contract, and that the Rockies have gotten a substantial upgrade via a very good player. How that will all pay off is anyone’s guess.
Fifteen months ago, the Cubs non-tendered Kyle Schwarber following a subpar season, because they didn’t think he would be worth paying something in the neighborhood of $10 million. He landed on his feet with the Nationals, went on an epic home run binge in June, made his first All-Star team, and, after being traded to the Red Sox at the deadline, helped Boston make a run to the ALCS. On Wednesday, the 29-year-old slugger parlayed that big season into an agreement on a four-year, $79 million deal with the Phillies.
Schwarber set career bests across the board with a .266/.374/.554 (145 wRC+) line for the Nationals and Red Sox in 2021, thumping 32 homers en route to 3.1 WAR. He packed that production into just 471 plate appearances; among players with at least 400 PA in both leagues, he ranked 10th in slugging percentage and 11th in wRC+. He fell short of qualifying for the batting title because he lost six weeks to a right hamstring strain and was still on the injured list when he was sent to the Red Sox for pitching prospect Aldo Ramirez on July 29.
Schwarber’s season was actually a bit more uneven than those robust numbers suggest. Coming off a subpar .188/.308/.393 (89 wRC+) campaign with the Cubs in the pandemic-shortened 2020, he signed a one-year, $10 million deal with the Nationals but hit for just a 103 wRC+ with nine homers in April and May. He didn’t add his 10th homer until June 12, but from that point to the end of the month, he pounded 16 in just 83 plate appearances, a run that included four two-homer games and a three-homer game (his six multi-homer games overall tied Joey Gallo, Aaron Judge, and Salvador Perez for the major league lead). On June 19 and 20 against the Mets, he tied the major league record with five homers in two games, homering twice and driving in four runs in the seven-inning nightcap of a doubleheader, and then hitting three homers and driving in four runs the next day. From June 19 to 29, he mashed 12 taters in 10 games, tying Albert Belle for the major league record.
Unfortunately, just three days later, Schwarber strained his right hamstring and landed on the injured list, which put a damper on his first All-Star selection, announced just two days later. The Nationals, who went 19–9 in June to nose above .500 (40–38), sank to 8–18 in July and cleaned house at the end of the month, trading eight players off the major league roster, including franchise cornerstones Max Scherzer and Trea Turner. Flipping Schwarber as part of that housecleaning was a no-brainer. Read the rest of this entry »
The Reds and Mariners both finished just outside their respective leagues’ playoff pictures last season, but they’re heading in different directions for 2022. Less than 24 hours after tradingSonny Gray to Minnesota, Cincinnati dealt left fielder Jesse Winker and third baseman Eugenio Suárez to Seattle in exchange for a four-player package headlined by 23-year-old lefty Brandon Williamson, who recently landed at no. 61 on our Top 100 Prospects list.
Also heading from the Emerald City to the Queen City are right-hander Justin Dunn, outfielder Jake Fraley, and a player to be named later. Via The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal:
The SEA-CIN deal also includes a player to be named going back to the Reds, source tells @TheAthletic. Reds high on that player, believe it will enhance package
This is an aggressive move for the Mariners, who haven’t made the playoffs since 2001 and who last year won 90 games, two fewer than the Red Sox and Yankees, the AL’s Wild Card teams. The gave up a substantial amount of young pitching in an effort to shore up an offense that scored just 4.30 runs per game, the AL’s fifth-lowest total, and managed just a 93 wRC+, tied for the fourth-lowest mark. The Reds… well, they saved some money and got some impressive, controllable pitching, but they also gave up their most impactful hitter over the past two seasons — and a prominent voice in the clubhouse — in order to dump the $35 million owed to Suárez. Read the rest of this entry »
Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the April 1 edition of my chat. This April fool is still recovering from having accidentally sent my mom’s birthday gift to my Brooklyn apartment instead of her Salt Lake City residence.
