The much anticipated Joey Gallo deal is now official. You can read my colleague Dan Szymborski’s analysis of the Yankees’ side of the trade here. The Rangers are set to acquire infielders Ezequiel Duran, Josh Smith and Trevor Hauver, as well as right-handed pitcher Glenn Otto, in exchange for Gallo and Joely Rodríguez. Even if what was once a six-player return from the Yankees has fizzled down to four, make no mistake: this is a bulk deal. At the same time, there’s considerable quality to the quantity heading back to Texas; there are no throw-ins here. The Rangers were able to add a pair of players who enter their system’s top 10, while the remaining two both deserve the moniker of “prospect.” Meanwhile, the Yankees don’t just get the best left-handed power source in baseball, they also cleared much of their mild 40-man roster crunch, as Eric Longenhagen detailed on Wednesday.

The best prospect in the deal is Ezequiel Duran, a 22-year-old second baseman who was hitting .290/374/.533 at High-A Hudson Valley. His calling card is plus raw power, with maximum exit velocities pushing the 110 mph range. His plate discipline is solid, but his violent swing mechanics out of a 5-foot-11 frame produce plenty of swing-and-miss to go with the pop. He’s a fringy runner who lacks arm strength, and he’s already been moved to second base, where most scouts put a 40-45 grade on his defense. He projects as an offense-first player at the corner who can hit .250-.275 with 18-24 bombs a year to go with a decent walk rate. A more refined approach would up that projection a bit. He becomes the No. 3 prospect in the Rangers system. Read the rest of this entry »

The Reds have continued to overhaul their bullpen during the final week before the deadline, acquiring right-hander Mychal Givens, who has undergone a bit of a transformation himself this year, from the Rockies in return for minor league right-handers Case Williams and Noah Davis. Cincinnati will be responsible for roughly $1.5 million of Givens’ remaining salary in his final year of arbitration before he reaches free agency this offseason.

Givens is a player more valued by the industry than fans; consistent relievers, even if they are just consistently solid, are a rare commodity. And Givens is just that, with the weird 2020 season as his only campaign with a negative WAR, and just -0.1 at that. He’s not a high-leverage guy, but he is at least dependable.

His 2.73 ERA this year isn’t supported by most metrics that consistently put him in the 4-plus range, but Givens has a consistent track record of missing bats with both his 92–96-mph fastball and plus changeup, both of which come from a funky, extra-low arm angle. His changeup has always been his best pitch, and over the last three years, he’s gone from using it around 10% of the time to nearly 20% in 2020 to a whopping 40% this season. It makes sense based on how well the pitch performs; you could easily make an argument that Givens should go with a Trevor Hoffman-esque approach of leaning primarily on his fastball/changeup combination and greatly reduce his slider usage, as his fringy breaker gets consistently hit hard. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s Friday, so the podcast returns as I am joined by special guest host and national writer for Fox Sports, Pedro Moura. We begin by discussing the looming trade deadline, how COVID has been the early story of the second half, and Shohei Ohtani’s footprint in southern California. We also try to understand what is going on with the Oakland A’s stadium situation. Then we are joined by a very special guest, as we welcome up-and-coming baseball journalist Ken Rosenthal for a discussion about what it’s like to cover the trade deadline, the value of breaking news, and just how many texts Ken will send on July 30. From there, it’s your emails, Pedro’s upcoming book and recent job change, and the spectacularly trashy (but impossible to stop watching) garbage that is Love Island UK.

As always, we hope you enjoy and thank you for listening.

Music by Sarin.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

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You asked for it and you got it. It’s a special bonus episode of Chin Music, as Eric Longenhagen and I break down the draft by walking through all 30 teams. We discuss who each team took with their first pick, their overall draft strategies, and plenty of the lesser-known names from Days Two and Three. No guests, no emails, just over two-and-a-half hours of deep draft discussion.

As always, we hope you enjoy and thank you for listening.

Music by Izzy True.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

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We’ll have a special draft recap episode in the very near future, but today we return to “normality,” as I am joined by special guest host and Brooklyn resident, Jay Jaffe. We discuss All-Star weekend and preview the second half of the season by going through each division and talking about the stories ahead. Then we are joined by our special guest, a listener of the week in the form of Josh The Graffiti guy, who is currently getting his doctorate studying graffiti. We talk about how the heck he pulled that off and exactly what his work entails. From there, it’s your emails, a Hall of Fame update from Jay, and why the Netflix comedy series I Think You Should Leave makes me sad.

As always, we hope you enjoy and thank you for listening.

Music by Izzy True.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

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It’s a special episode of the podcast, as we eschew the usual format to spend more than two-and-a-half hours previewing the 2021 MLB Draft, which begins Sunday evening. For this episode, I am joined by our very own well-connected draft guru, Eric Longenhagen, as we discuss the story lines to watch for and what might happen in the first round and beyond. In between our two discussions, we are joined by four staples of draft media for a series of quick-hit interviews during which each answers three questions from Twitter and, for those appearing on television this weekend, discusses their suit and tie choices. In order, our guests are:

• Jim Callis (MLB Pipeline)
• Keith Law (The Athletic)
• Carlos Collazo (Baseball America)
• Kiley McDaniel (ESPN)

It’s a whole lot of draft talk and little else, apart from a couple of tangents on Rory Scovel and the town of Magnolia, Arkansas. The podcast will return to its regularly scheduled format next week.

As always, we hope you enjoy and thank you for listening.

Music by Dead.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

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The draft is in five days, which means that teams are beginning to gather in their respective war rooms to prepare. It’s an exceptionally busy and hectic time. Many clubs have already had smaller, regional meetings as well as private workouts for players, both en masse and of the individual variety. The magnets are all printed out and ready to go. It’s just time to line them up.

Small or Large?

Teams organize their war rooms in highly divergent ways, but the biggest current split revolves around just how big the room is in terms of attendance. Some teams only have crosscheckers and those with more senior titles attend meetings, while others bring in their entire scouting staff. During my time with the Astros, the team always conducted full-staff meetings, and the benefits were numerous and glaringly clear. Area scouts know these players better than anyone and have seen them more than anyone. They’ve talked to the player, and quite possibly the player’s family. They might have followed a college player since their high school days. They know their coaches and summer league managers. They’ve run into the player’s representative multiple times during the spring and had a few chit-chats with them. Even if theirs is not the most important pure talent evaluation (though it often is), the things area scouts bring to the table are immensely valuable. And beyond their considerable assistance throughout the entire draft process, there’s also the simple morale component. Area scouts have sacrificed their lives for six months. They’ve missed birthdays, anniversaries and little league games, recitals and parent-teacher conferences, and now they’re not allowed in the room? It never made any sense to me, and it feels like more and more teams are moving to an all-scout meeting, as they should. Read the rest of this entry »

Content Warning: We do not discuss the details of the case, but do talk about the Trevor Bauer situation, so there are mentions of sexual violence and abuse. If this is something you understandably want to avoid, the discussion begins at 27:25 and ends at 56:15.

We’re here for the 20th time as Chin Music returns with special co-host Tim Marchman, former editor-in-chief of Deadspin and current features editor for Motherboard under the Vice umbrella. We start light with talk of sticky stuff suspensions and player beefs, before moving onto the mysterious world of NFTs, which Major League Baseball dipped its toes into last week. Then it’s a more serious discussion concerning Trevor Bauer, as Tim offers what might seem like a counter-intuitive suggestion about how this should be handled based on his reporting on similar subjects and talking to victim advocate groups. From there, we have a pair of special guests, beginning with Harry Marino, the executive director of Advocates For Minor Leaguers, who explains the purpose behind the organization and the good fight they are fighting. Then we are joined by Kendall Rogers, managing editor of D1 Baseball, who discusses North Carolina State’s COVID-based elimination from the College World Series. From there it’s the usual endgame, chatting about Eddie Gaedel, the world of tech journalism, Tim’s favorite album of all-time, zombie-based entertainment and more.

As always, we hope you enjoy and thank you for listening.

Music by Lung.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

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Yesterday, I assessed the state of each org in the American League ahead of this month’s trade deadline, detailing what effect June might have had on their approach and what they might look to achieve come the end of July. Today, we’ll consider the senior circuit.

NL East

New York Mets
June Effect: Up slightly. For all the understandable concern over the Mets offense, the team has seen their chances of reaching the playoffs creep up a bit into the 75% range.

Current Tenor: Buying.

What They Are After: On paper, the Mets need to do something about their moribund offense, but they are much like the Yankees in that what they actually need is for their exiting lineup to get/stay healthy and start producing like one would expect. A center field upgrade would be ideal, but there aren’t many candidates out there. Some rotation depth to help get to the playoffs would also be nice.

Behavior: With a first-year owner and a first-year GM, clubs are still figuring this one out. The team has money and Steve Cohen wants to win, so they are expected to be aggressive. Read the rest of this entry »

At the beginning of June, I wrote about how reach-out call season had begun. As the calendar flips this week, those reach-out calls quickly turn into conversations concerning serious injuries and the initialization of actual trade talks. A lot can change in a month, and has, so let’s check in with each org and try to project the month ahead, beginning with the American League.

AL East

Boston Red Sox
June Effect: Up significantly. The Red Sox entered the month with roughly a 25% chance of reaching the postseason, but are now the overwhelming favorite to win the division (53.5%) with an 83.5% chance to make the playoffs, per our Playoff Odds.

Current Tenor: Buying mode.

What They Are After: Starters who can pitch in playoffs games and a more dependable bat at first base. Hunter Renfroe’s step forward creates less stress about the outfield situation.

Behavior: It’s hard to measure other than by using Chaim Bloom’s history in Tampa. He’ll likely aim high in terms of asks/offers, but a heavy lean on analytics can create evaluation mis-matches that allow a deal to get done. Read the rest of this entry »