It was a beautiful night here in Brooklyn on Wednesday, and although I couldn’t make it to Citi Field in time for Mets-Nationals, I decided to go for a long walk and then stop at a local sports bar to read and watch some baseball. Naturally, the Mets were on one of the TVs behind the bar, while the other was reserved for the Yankees, who were set to play the Royals a little while later. That was a bummer for the two Red Sox fans sitting next to me, Mike and Kathleen, but they were resourceful. The bar has free wifi, so Mike pulled up Boston’s game against the Rays on his phone. He and Kathleen didn’t know one another, but they recognized each other as fellow Sox fans from the weekend prior, when they were both at the same bar to watch Yankees-Red Sox. He moved over to the stool between Kathleen and I, so that she and her partner Harry could also watch the game. The four of us started talking, and it turns out Harry and I went to the same high school, though he graduated four years ahead of me. Small world!

Anyway, sometime between Marcelo Mayer’s first and second home run of the game, Kathleen said to me, “The best thing about Red Sox fans is we simultaneously love and hate the Sox, and we love to hate them, too.” I bring this up because I thought about her description of Boston fans as I sat down to answer the first question in this week’s mailbag.

We’ll get to that in a moment, but before we do, I’d like to remind all of you that while anyone can submit a question, this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for next week’s mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

Happy Saturday, everyone, and welcome to the first edition of the FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag! We’ve got a lot to cover today, including how to fix the Braves, how the Orioles might fare if they sell at the deadline, the most fun plays to lead off games, and so much more.

But before we get there, I’d like to remind all of you that while anyone can submit a question, this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for next week’s mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com.

OK, that’s enough housekeeping. Let’s get to the first question, which comes to us from one of our international readers!

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I’m just wondering if it’s weird that the Twins have had two seasons in a row with winning streaks equal to or greater than 12 games after an absolutely garbage start. We didn’t even have a magic piece of preserved meat this year. Can we read into these tea leaves at all? Does God exist and, assuming they do exist, what has Minnesota baseball ever done to them? — Incomprehensibly Irrational in Ireland

After doing some Stathead research, it seems that you might not be “Incomprehensibly Irrational” after all, because you’re onto something here. The Twins are the second team in the Divisional Era to have winning streaks of 12 or more games in back-to-back seasons. Cleveland won 14 straight games in 2016, from June 17 through July 1; the next year, from August 24 through September 14, Cleveland ripped off 22 straight wins, the longest single-season winning streak since at least 1901, which is as far back as Stathead’s research goes. Those Cleveland teams were both really good, though. The 2016 club went to the World Series, and was 35-30 entering play on June 17; the 2017 team won 102 games, most in the American League, and was 69-56 entering play on August 24.

The closest comparison I could find to these Twins are the Chicago Cubs in 1927 and 1928. Chicago won 12 straight games in 1927, but that streak began on June 5 — later than the two Minnesota streaks. Those Cubs started slow, too, though 4-7 is not as rough a start as the Twins of the last two years, who were six games below .500 when their winning streak began last season and as many as eight games below .500 this year. Also, by the time the 1927 Cubs began their winning streak, they were three games above .500, at 22-19. The next year, the Cubs had a 13-game winning streak, beginning on May 5, when they were three games below .500. They finished the season 91-63, good for third in the National League.

So, all this is to say the Twins are the only team ever to begin winning streaks of 12 games or more before the start of June in back-to-back seasons, and if you extend the timeframe to the first week of June to also include the 1927-28 Cubs, the Twins are still the only team to win at least 12 games in consecutive seasons after being more than three games below .500 in each year. Sure, that’s a specific subset with a lot of qualifiers, but the Twins are a weird team! Late last August, as part of the cross-country road trip that I wrote about for FanGraphs, I stopped and saw a Twins game at Target Field. Despite their place in the standings — they were 72-60 and held the third Wild Card spot — they looked completely dead. Their outfield play was sloppy; their plate appearances were uninspired. Watching them against the Braves, another disappointing team, I could feel Minnesota’s pending collapse. Hopefully, for both you and my grandma, who is a die-hard Twins fan from Brainerd, Minnesota, the 2025 Twins won’t endure the same fate down the stretch as last year’s club did. Considering their rotation has the most WAR in the majors and Byron Buxton is (knock on wood) healthy and performing well, I think there’s a fairly good chance that they will be just fine.

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What is the most fun play to lead off a game? – Ben Lederman

Such a delightful question, Ben! I immediately thought of an inside-the-park home run, and I mean a clean one, without any errors that would put the “little league home run” asterisk on it. Give me Oneil Cruz at Coors Field, rocketing a line drive into the right-center gap in a game when the Rockies are giving Brenton Doyle the day off. Cruz blasts the ball so hard that it caroms off the wall at a weird angle, and because of the unexpected direction of the ricochet, it takes backup center fielder Mickey Moniak a little more time to pick it up. Cruz is rounding third when Moniak unleashes a perfect throw to cut-off man Ezequiel Tovar, who fires a nearly flawless one-hopper home. In a single motion, catcher Hunter Goodman snags it off the bounce, drops to his knee, and swipes his mitt to his left. Simultaneously, in an attempt to avoid the tag, the 6-foot-7 Cruz leaps head first toward the area where Goodman had been squatting before the pitch and extends his left hand to the point of the plate. It’s bang-bang. The umpire signals safe!

I also asked some of my FanGraphs colleagues what they thought. Here’s what they had to say:

Davy Andrews: I might argue for a crazy wild pitch, one that hits way up high on the net or sails way behind the batter. It really makes you wonder what’s going to happen next, and whether the game is going to get weird immediately.

Ben Clemens: I’m a defense-first guy, so I want to see this: Leadoff hitter hits a ball in the gap and gets thrown out trying to stretch it to a double.

James Fegan: A brawl to lead off a game really puts you on watch for the next nine innings.

Jay Jaffe: I’ll go with a little league home run.

Esteban Rivera: I always love a long at-bat to start a game, like at least 10 pitches.

Leo Morgenstern: I’m going simple. I think it’s just a no-doubter, first-pitch home run.

Kiri Oler: I know it’s not technically a “play,” but I like a nice bee delay to start a game.

Davy Andrews: Yeah, I’d like to change mine to that one.

Kiri Oler: I just think we can all use a friendly reminder that as much as we might like to think we’re in control, Mother Nature still runs things around here.

Jake Mailhot: A home run (little league or standard fare) is probably the right answer, but I’ll argue for a three-pitch strikeout with three whiffs. Immediately puts you on notice that the pitcher is feeling it today, and something might be cooking.

Lucas Kelly: Bunt single.

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As a Braves fan, my question is about the Braves offense – namely, how do you fix it? With so many lineup regulars locked into multi-year contracts, and nothing of note in the minors, is there anything even to be done except wait it out? The Braves fired their third base coach and brought back Fredi González, which seems like the kind of move that was only made because Alex Anthopoulos has too much respect for Brian Snitker to fire him midseason. I’m afraid that what we’ve seen from the Braves in 2024 and 2025 is closer to what they truly are, as opposed to the wonderful 2023. Should I have any reason for optimism that they will rebound? — Matt W., Nashville

The Braves are in a tough position if they want to fix their offense. They don’t have a lot of ready help in the minors, as you note, and don’t appear to have a lot of surplus talent to trade, but one position where they could afford to make a move is at catcher… where they did just get help from the minors and created a surplus. With top prospect Drake Baldwin breaking camp with the team and thriving in tandem with Sean Murphy, the Braves have an enviable pair of backstops, but that may be a luxury they have to forgo to fill other needs. They could sell high on Murphy, who has rebounded from a rough 2024 to hit for a 123 wRC+ and is signed through 2028. Good catching is always in short supply, and the Braves do have James McCann, a competent if unspectacular backup, stashed at Triple-A Gwinnett. Sure, it would be a bummer to trade a productive hitter away from an offense that needs help, but with Marcell Ozuna parked at DH, either Baldwin or Murphy is sitting on most days.

Additionally, the Braves do have a few below-market contracts, which gives them some room to maneuver; they can shake things up if they want to. Ozzie Albies is making $7 million this year with options at the same price for each of the next two. A team that’s more committed to winning than bean-counting could just eat his remaining commitment or sell low and trade for a better second baseman — not that it can be easily done without weakening some other part of the roster or system. Michael Harris II, who’s signed through 2030, has been terrible at the plate, but speed and defense give his value a floor, making him a buy-low possibility for a team willing to supply more immediate help in return.

Beyond that, there’s reason to wait — and even be optimistic. Jurickson Profar will be eligible to return from his 80-game PED suspension on June 29. That should help in left field, where Alex Verdugo and friends have combined for -1.0 WAR. It’s also not unreasonable to hope for some positive regression from Matt Olson and Austin Riley, both of whom have scalded the ball but are well short of their expected numbers. Ronald Acuña Jr. has hit well since coming back, and while it hasn’t coincided with a team-wide offensive outburst yet, the odds of one are certainly better with him in the lineup. — Jay Jaffe

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A lot of readers are probably well-versed on the 20-80 scouting scale, but can you give us more context on what that translates to at the major league level? It’d be interesting to hear some examples of 50/60/70 shortstops, who has a 30 hit tool, who has 70 power, etc. — Satya

I think there are useful modern applications for the traditional scouting scale. It’s a concise way to paint a fairly detailed picture of a player’s skill set. This sort of scale (where 50 is average and each integer of 10 represents a standard deviation from the average) was built to help describe distributions across any sort of population, like the size and color variation in carrots, or the rates of traffic accidents at different times of day, or, in our case, the distribution of talent across high-level amateur and pro baseball.

We have so much more data to consider now then we did when this scale was initially conceived as a potential means of communicating scouting information across a department of people without computers. Here are some of the statistical baselines and distributions that I use as a reference when interacting with in-kind minor league data for position players — we can do pitchers another time. I’m generally able to pull this information from FanGraphs; there’s often a big league equivalent to whatever minor league data I’ve gotten my hands on that’s accessible using our leaderboards and custom reports.

Here are the league-wide averages across the last 10 years for many of the statistical categories I think are meaningful when assessing players. The upward trend in some of the power metrics is a reminder that these scales shift and change. You can also play with the individual positions to get an idea of just how high the bar is at first base compared to catcher or center field.

Let’s start with some metrics that help measure a player’s hit tool:

Here are some examples by position, using full-season 2024 numbers:

This is a crude assessment. Note that there are plenty of hitters toward the bottom of the contact rate leaderboard who have high batting averages. Those guys are crushing the baseball when they make contact and netting more hits per ball in play; a hitter’s strength and power also impact the way their hit tool actually plays. These metrics are more indications of pure barrel feel, and I think that’s supported by the above list of names.

Next let’s look at raw power:

The league-wide average has been steadily creeping up over the last 10 years or so at every position but first base. Here are position-by-position deltas for hard-hit rate over the last 10 years:

Remember these deltas are in percentage points, not percentages. For shortstops, this is a 33% increase on balls put in play at 95 mph or more since 2015. Here are the players with top marks in these statistical categories:

There are no real surprises here. You can play with the leaderboards across positions, handedness, age, or various windows of time and learn more. Once you know the big league average and the standard deviation, you can basically ballpark everyone’s raw power as you surf around. Again, it’s crude, but it’s a piece of the puzzle for any prospect.

For speed, Statcast’s sprint speed is a great way of measuring a runner’s top speed. It’s giving you feet/second in the runner’s fastest one-second window. Base-to-base times (most commonly home-to-first times) give you a little better idea of a runner’s speed over a longer distance. You get some combination of top-end speed and acceleration in the home-to-first times, though beware of the jailbreak-style hitters whose times are better than their pure speed. Home-to-first times are most often what’s generating the speed grades you see in scouting reports. The players with 30 feet-per-second sprint speeds and home-to-first times hovering around 4.10 seconds are who you can safely call 80-grade runners. Most of those guys will run four flat or below on their best bolts.

As for defense and throwing, that’s something I gauge visually. I often look at Clay Davenport’s site and scope out the really big numbers in either direction as a flag that I need to assess a player’s defense, either through tape study or by communicating with scouts. Here is one totally subjective example of defenders at each grade and position (please excuse my name abbreviations):

— Eric Longenhagen
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Assuming they are healthy at the trade deadline (not a given at the moment), what would be a fair return for each of Cedric Mullins and Ryan O’Hearn? Can the Orioles expect/hope to get Top 100 pitchers for them? – Ben from Boston, FG Member since 2021

If O’Hearn and Mullins are both healthy come July and their performance hasn’t disappeared, I can imagine the O’s doing well in short-term returns. A Top 100 pitching prospect is a fairly big ask, because you’re only trading two months without an extra year as the kicker, and around 100, you’re at names like Carson Whisenhunt or Tink Hence. It’s not completely outside the realm of possibility, of course, because right now there don’t appear to be a lot of sellers with talent to target, as teams like the White Sox and Rockies have a fairly empty cupboard. Rather than focusing on one particular pitching prospect, the Orioles might use such a trade to instead pick up a few lower-ranked pitchers who have some kind of plausible upside, and see how things shake out. If the O’s are still struggling to crack .500 in late July, and Mullins and O’Hearn remain on the roster and unsigned to extensions, it would probably be malpractice if they start August in orange and black. — Dan Syzmborski

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This question is for any of the blog writers, but I had Michael Rosen in mind: How often do you find yourself 5-10 hours into researching an article and then reach a null hypothesis? Do you try to publish these anyway in some other format? This also doubles as a question about your process for picking research topics and then pursuing them: Do you do them one at a time? Multiple irons in the fire? How (if at all) do you collaborate with the other writers on staff? — Kevin Li

I try to avoid excessive dead-end research as much as possible by doing a bunch of work on the front end. If I find something that looks promising, I’ll pitch the story and start writing in earnest, but for every thread that’s worth pulling on, there are a bunch more where I write, like, 10 lines of code and realize I’m working toward a dead end. And the other writers have been super helpful when I’ve got a gap in my knowledge of some specific area of analysis, like hitting mechanics. I think I’ve sent over half the staff a Slack message at some point asking for help on one question or another. — Michael Rosen

Hello, all of you FanGraphs readers! Are you a FanGraphs Member? Are you looking for something fresh to read on Saturday mornings? Do you have any burning baseball questions for us, but don’t quite know where to ask them? Well, then we’ve got great news for you.

FanGraphs is launching a weekly mailbag, curated by me, that will run on the website every Saturday morning. Anyone can submit a question, but the piece answering them will only be available to FanGraphs Members.

So how is this going to work? Send any and all of your questions — about baseball, baseball writing, or whatever else you might be interested in having us answer — to me via email at mailbag@fangraphs.com, and each week, I’ll pick a few that we’ll answer in that Saturday’s mailbag. That’s right, I said we, because my FanGraphs colleagues will be helping me out. If you have a Hall of Fame question, I’ll probably relay it to Jay Jaffe. We’ve got Eric Longenhagen for prospect inquiries, and Dan Szymborski if we need to consult the ol’ ZiPS machine — the list goes on! We’ll do our best to answer as many questions as possible each week, but we won’t be able to get to them all. The ideal mailbag question is something that requires a deeper dive than we can tackle in our various chats, but is not so expansive that it warrants an entire article. Read the rest of this entry »

I called Jonathan Lucroy in the early afternoon of July 29, 2023. I was on deadline for a story I was writing for The New York Times, about why catchers are rarely traded during the season, and I had a few follow-up questions for him.

When we had spoken three days earlier, Lucroy described himself as a “redneck psychiatrist” for his pitchers, someone who knew exactly what to say to earn their trust and coax them through the toughest big league lineups. This was one of the reasons why, during the second half of his 12-year big league career, contending clubs in need of a catcher would target him ahead of the trade deadline. It’s also what allowed him to keep getting jobs as he pushed into his mid-30s. At that point, he was a veteran whose intangible value exceeded his production.

This all crossed my mind while the phone rang. And rang. And rang. Finally, after about 45 seconds, a familiar voice came on the other line, except it wasn’t the one I’d expected. Instead of Lucroy’s Southern drawl, I heard the comforting cadence of a Bob Uecker broadcast. Read the rest of this entry »

Attention FanGraphs readers and Members: Do you have a piece of original baseball writing or research that you’d like to have published but don’t know where to go? If so, we’re happy to report that we’re relaunching our Community Blog and looking for submissions.

Many of you have probably seen or read the Community Blog, where anyone with a FanGraphs account can submit a piece for review and publication. Some of you may have even written for it previously. But for those of you who aren’t familiar with the process or would like a refresher on how it works, let’s run through how to get your writing onto our site. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — Anthony Volpe’s go-ahead grand slam in the third inning will be what Yankees fans remember most from Game 4 of the World Series.

It was the highest-leverage swing of his young career, the most pivotal play in the most important game this organization has played in at least 15 years. It was the main reason why in the ninth inning, once the game was well out of reach, the majority of the 49,000-plus fans at Yankee Stadium were chanting his last name, which Volpe said was “definitely number one” on his list of coolest moments. It restored the Yankees some level of dignity as they avoided getting swept out of the Fall Classic with an 11-4 blowout win over the Dodgers.

Indeed, if the Yankees pull off a miraculous comeback and become the first team to win the World Series after losing the first three games, Volpe’s blast will go down as the biggest turning point in the State of New York since the Battle of Saratoga. If the improbable happens — if the home run is going to be more than a fun little footnote to just another failed season — we’ll have plenty of time to rhapsodize about the local kid’s signature Yankee Moment. For now, though, I’d like to dig into the two other runs that Volpe scored in Game 4 and the events that led up to them, as they offer a window into the most important element he brings to the Yankees offense: his baserunning. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — Less than 20 minutes before what might have been the final game of the year at Citi Field, the OMG Mets introduced one more good-vibes gimmick. Five, actually.

The Temptations, the legendary Motown band, took the field behind home plate dressed in their signature suits and sang the National Anthem. Moments later, the quintet donned Mets jerseys and performed “My Girl,” their classic song that is played here whenever Francisco Lindor steps to the plate. If the Mets were going to be eliminated in Game 5 of the National League Championship Series, at least they’d go down singing.

Turns out, the Temptations were just the opening act for a three-hour rock revival. When it was over, the Mets had blown out the Dodgers, 12-6, and ensured that their remarkable run would continue for at least another game.

“We’ve played with our backs against the wall the whole year, and we’ve been able to rise to the occasion,” left fielder Brandon Nimmo said. “Some might say we’re at our best at that time. If anybody can do it, we can do it.” Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — As Francisco Lindor stepped in against Phillies reliever Carlos Estévez with the bases loaded, one out, and the Mets down a run in the sixth inning, the Citi Field fans were still singing his walk-up song:

When it’s cold outside, I’ve got the month of May.

The Mets shortstop called time, retreated, and regrouped. The singing continued.

I guess you’d say,
What can make me feel this way?
My girl, my girl, my girl
Talkin’ ‘bout my girl, my girl

They punctuated their sweet serenade with three letters, shouted repeatedly in succession. “M-V-P! M-V-P! M-V-P!”

Lindor returned to the batter’s box, tapped the outside edge of the plate, then the inside one. Now, he was ready to break the game open. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — Let’s just get this out of the way up top: Jazz Chisholm Jr. should have been called out at second base.

The replay review of his seventh-inning stolen base showed that his foot had not yet touched the bag when Royals second baseman Michael Massey applied the tag. Chisholm then scored the go-ahead run on Alex Verdugo’s single to left field, and the Yankees won a somewhat sloppy, back-and-forth Game 1 of the American League Division Series, 6-5, on Saturday night at Yankee Stadium.

“They just said there was nothing clear and convincing to overturn it,” Royals manager Matt Quatraro said Sunday morning, after he asked MLB why the call on the field was not reversed. “If he had been called out, that call would have stood too.” Read the rest of this entry »

It would be easy to look at what happened across the two American League Wild Card Series as the best possible outcome for the Yankees. The Astros, the team that had made it to the ALCS in each of the last seven seasons and eliminated New York three times to advance to the World Series in that span, saw their season end after losing to the Tigers; meanwhile, the Orioles, the Yankees’ up-and-coming division rivals who gave them fits all season, were bounced in Baltimore by the Royals.

That’s right, the two biggest AL threats to the Yankees this postseason were knocked out in the first round. To paraphrase manager Aaron Boone, it’s all right there in front of them. Indeed, their path to their first World Series appearance in 15 years is a bit clearer, in the sense that neither their past nemesis nor their latest challenger is standing in their way.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. The Astros look more like the decaying New Rome of Megalopolis than the burgeoning empire that ransacked the AL for the better part of a decade, and Baltimore’s nearly completed rebuild still hasn’t gotten off the ground in October. Besides, the Royals are pretty good in their own right. They have a trio of excellent starting pitchers atop their rotation and a strong group of high-leverage relievers. They run the bases well and are either the best or one of the best defensive teams in the majors. And then there’s shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., a true five-tool player who posted 10.4 WAR this year and has carried Kansas City further than almost anyone could’ve expected when the season began.

To keep going, they will have to overcome the Yankees, who had the best record in the AL and won five of their seven games against the Royals this season. Kansas City’s first chance to do so comes Saturday night, when veteran right-hander Michael Wacha takes on reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole in Game 1 of the ALDS at Yankee Stadium.

It certainly won’t be easy. The Yankees enter this weekend with the best odds of any AL team to win the World Series. Perhaps that makes sense, considering New York won’t have to go through Houston this time, but there’s a more specific explanation for why the Yankees are the team to beat this postseason: This is the best team they’ve had in years.

Wait, these Yankees, who won 94 games and were the second-worst team in baseball for six weeks, are better than the 100-win teams of 2018 and ’19? And the 2022 club that won 99 games? Even the upstart Baby Bombers squad in 2017, the one that many fans still claim would’ve won it all if not for the Astros’ sign-stealing scheme? Really? Sure!

Why? The main and most obvious reason is that the Yankees are no longer just the Aaron Judge show. They have two MVP-caliber talents batting back-to-back in their lineup, and somehow, describing Judge and Juan Soto as “MVP-caliber talents” doesn’t quite encapsulate their excellence or their importance to the Yankees. Think of it this way: The Yankees have both the best hitter in baseball since Barry Bonds and the second coming of Ted Williams. Or put another way, Judge and Soto are the second pair of teammates ever to finish with at least 8 WAR and a 175 or better wRC+. The first pair? Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig, who did it a ridiculous four times (1927-28, 1930-31).

The rest of New York’s lineup is, at best, inconsistent, but that was the case in prior seasons, too, when Judge was the only player around. In 2022, for example, excluding Judge, the Yankees were roughly league average at the plate (102 wRC+); this season, the Yankees have a 104 wRC+ without Judge. That isn’t much better, but consider where they would be without both Judge and Soto; excluding them, New York hitters have combined for a 92 wRC+. The point here is that the Yankees now have two elite players to lean on instead of just one, and if either Judge or Soto goes cold, the team still has one of the top three hitters in baseball to pick up the slack.

Also, it’s worth noting that Boone acknowledged earlier this week that Judge was pretty banged up during the 2022 postseason, which probably contributed to his struggles (35 wRC+ in nine games); before that year, Judge had a 126 wRC+ across 160 postseason plate appearances. Boone also said both Judge and Soto enter this postseason about as healthy as any player can be after playing a six-month season.

Beyond Judge and Soto, the Yankees also have Giancarlo Stanton, who seemingly levels up when the calendar turns to October. Since joining the Yankees, Stanton is slashing .297/.373/.734 with nine home runs, a .443 wOBA, and a 186 wRC+ over his 75 postseason plate appearances. Additionally, there’s second baseman Gleyber Torres, who had a disappointing contract year this season; he finished with a .257/.330/.378 line, 15 home runs, a 104 wRC+, and 1.7 WAR — all down from his resurgent 2023 campaign. That said, those numbers are pretty remarkable considering how poorly Torres played over the first few months of the season. Entering the All-Star break, he had an 88 wRC+ and 0.3 WAR across 93 games and 380 plate appearances; over his 61 games (285 PA) since then, he has a 124 wRC+ and 1.4 WAR.

The arrival of Jazz Chisholm Jr., for whom the Yankees traded in late July, coincided with their turnaround after their six-week slide. Playing all but 14 of his innings with the Yankees at third base, a position he’d never played professionally before, Chisholm helped shake the team out of its midsummer snooze. With the Yankees, he batted .273/.325/.500 with 11 home runs, 18 steals, and a 132 wRC+ over 191 plate appearances. Thanks to that offense and stellar defense at the hot corner (6 OAA), Chisholm had 2.3 WAR during his 46 games with the Yankees.

This lineup still has plenty of questions, though. Rookie catcher and cleanup hitter Austin Wells had a dreadful September, when he hit for a 22 wRC+ across 83 plate appearances. That probably has something to do with fatigue; through the end of August, Wells slashed .259/.348/.447 with a 126 wRC+. He hasn’t played since the Yankees locked up the no. 1 seed last Saturday, so we’ll see if he rebounds following a week of rest.

The Yankees also have a significant hole in left field, where Alex Verdugo played most of the season and was one of the 10 worst hitters in the majors (83 wRC+). More recently, Jasson Domínguez has started in left, but he’s looked shaky in the field and hasn’t hit much either, though his 84 wRC+ has come in a much smaller sample. Boone has not yet committed to playing one over the other.

Despite the struggles of some players, the Yankees were one of the best hitting teams in baseball overall, ranking third in runs (815), second in wRC+ (117), and first in home runs (237). They’ll face a Royals pitching staff that was one of the best in the majors. Kansas City ranked seventh in ERA (3.76), fourth in FIP (3.76), and third in WAR (20.2). The Royals rotation was especially excellent this season, with a 3.55 ERA and 16.7 WAR, both of which ranked second among all big league rotations.

Their top three starters deserve much of the credit for their success. Cole Ragans, who threw six scoreless innings in Game 1 of the Wild Card round and would’ve kept going if he hadn’t started cramping, broke out this season with a 3.14 ERA, a 2.99 FIP, and 4.9 WAR over 186 1/3 innings — more than 50 innings above his previous career high at any professional level. That workload could become an issue, though. As Ben Clemens noted in his AL Wild Card Series preview, “He’s been walking more opponents and striking out fewer of them in August and September; only a mid-.200s BABIP has kept his ERA from reflecting it.” Ragans is slated to start Game 2 on Monday.

Seth Lugo wasn’t at his best against the Orioles on Tuesday even though he allowed just one run on five hits and struck out six. He labored most of the night and looked gassed when he was removed with one out in the fifth. At 34, Lugo just completed the best season of his career, one that should earn him a top-five finish in the Cy Young voting. He had a 3.00 ERA, a 3.25 FIP, and 4.7 WAR across 33 starts and a whopping 206 2/3 innings, the second most in the majors. One of those starts came last month in the Bronx, when Lugo silenced the Yankees across seven scoreless innings; he struck out 10, walked none, and gave up just three hits. After that start, Jay Jaffe went into depth on Lugo, and I’d encourage you to check out that piece if you haven’t already. Lugo will start Game 3 on Wednesday in Kansas City.

That leaves Wacha, KC’s Game 1 starter, who is having his best season (3.35 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 3.3 WAR, 166 2/3 IP) since at least 2017. Like Lugo, Wacha revived his career last year in the Padres’ rotation and turned that into a multi-year deal with the Royals. In his Wild Card preview, Ben also compared the two Royals veterans to describe Wacha, whom he said “is like Lugo with the volume turned down 5%. He throws a ton of pitches, but his only plus offering is the changeup that made him famous back in his St. Louis days.” Another thing about Wacha? He’s held Judge to just one single and three walks with 11 strikeouts in the 21 times he’s faced the Yankees slugger during his career, for whatever that small sample is worth.

Like the Royals, the Yankees have a deep rotation. Cole missed the team’s first 75 games with an elbow injury, and his first seven starts were the work of a rusty pitcher who might have returned to the mound too quickly. Since the beginning of August, though, Cole has a 2.25 ERA and a 2.62 FIP across 10 starts (60 innings), and for the most part, he’s been even better than those numbers suggest during that stretch. Seven of the 15 earned runs he’s allowed in that span came in his bizarre September 14 start against the Red Sox, when he intentionally walked Rafael Devers with the bases empty. What’s more, only two of the 11 home runs hit off him this year have come within the past two months (in fact, those two homers came in the same start, on August 27 against the Nationals).

Cole is set to start Game 1 on Saturday, followed by Carlos Rodón in Game 2 on Monday. Boone has not yet announced who will get the ball in Wednesday’s Game 3 in Kansas City, but it will most likely be either Clarke Schmidt or Luis Gil, with the other one, along with Marcus Stroman, relegated to the bullpen.

During the second half of the season, Rodón looked more like the pitcher the Yankees thought they were getting when they signed him to a six-year, $162 million deal before the 2023 season. Over his 12 starts since the All-Star break, he is 7-2 with a 2.91 ERA, 3.93 FIP, and 3.67 xFIP. Home runs were his biggest problem this season; his 1.59 HR/9 was the fourth-highest rate among major league starters.

For his part, Schmidt (2.85 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 85 1/3 IP) has been the best Yankees starter on a rate basis this season, but he missed more than three months with a lat strain and has not been as strong since returning from the injured list. After posting a 2.52 ERA and a 3.53 FIP during his first 11 starts (60 2/3 IP), he had a 3.65 ERA and a 3.69 FIP in 24 2/3 innings across his five September starts.

Gil, a Rookie of the Year candidate, dominated during his first 14 starts of the season (2.03 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 80 IP) and anchored the Yankees rotation while Cole was on the shelf. He then looked completely lost for three starts — allowing 16 runs in just 9 2/3 innings — before rounding into form again after making an adjustment to his pitch mix. Over the first half of the season, Gil was mainly a fastball/changeup guy who also had a slider; that worked for the most part. But in early July, after his third straight clunker, he started leaning on his slider more, with his changeup becoming his third pitch.

With the way the ALDS schedule works out — an off day Sunday and then travel days on Tuesday and, if necessary, Friday — both teams will need only three starters to get through the best-of-five series.

Witt is by far the most threatening hitter the Yankees’ staff will face in a lineup that is otherwise fairly light on impact batters. Salvador Perez, who is somehow only 34 years old, is coming off a solid season in which he hit 27 home runs and had a 115 wRC+ while splitting his time between catcher and first base. Expect him to be behind the plate for the entire ALDS as long as first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino remains healthy enough to be in the lineup. Pasquantino, who hit 19 homers and had a 108 wRC+ this season, recently returned from a broken right thumb.

The Yankees bullpen is their biggest question heading into this series. Luke Weaver made a point to say earlier this week that he does not consider himself to be the team’s closer, even though Boone has turned to him in save situations instead of Clay Holmes, who was displaced as the closer last month. No matter what you call Weaver’s role, there’s no denying that he’s been the most impactful Yankees reliever this year. Over 62 appearances spanning 84 innings, he has a 2.89 ERA, a 3.33 FIP, and 1.0 WAR.

Holmes has blown a league-high 13 saves this season, but overall, he’s been solid: 3.14 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 63 IP. Some of his woes can be attributed to bad luck. As David Laurila detailed today, Holmes is still a groundball pitcher, but far more of the fly balls he’s allowed this season have been hit for home runs (11.8%, up from last year’s 7.1%). Opponents also have a .322 BABIP against him; that’s the highest it’s been in a full season. The Yankees’ bullpen also includes righties Tommy Kahnle (2.11 ERA, 4.01 FIP) and Ian Hamilton (3.82 ERA, 3.03 FIP), and lefty Tim Hill, who has a 2.05 ERA and 3.62 FIP in 44 innings since coming over from the White Sox in June.

Closer Lucas Erceg has anchored the Kansas City bullpen since the Royals traded for him at the end of July, and he’s been better than they could’ve expected when they acquired him. Michael Rosen just wrote about what makes Erceg special, and I’ll refer you to his piece rather than going into depth here. Lefty Kris Bubic, their second-best reliever, is also excellent; he struck out 32.2% of the batters he faced this season while posting a 2.67 ERA and 1.95 FIP over 30 1/3 innings. The Royals also feature relievers John Schreiber, a righty, and lefty Angel Zerpa, who replaced Lugo on Wednesday with one out in the fifth to escape a bases-loaded jam. For the first out he recorded, Zerpa threw a sinker that was so nasty that Colton Cowser swung at it even though it hit him.

It’s going to be a fun series. The Yankees are the better team, but the Royals, to quote the face of their franchise, “didn’t come this far just to come this far.” He added, “We’re going to keep getting after it, keep trying to create our own legacy.” What exactly that legacy turns out to be remains to be seen.