Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2023-24 free agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2024 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for nine of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of infielders. Read the rest of this entry »

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2023-24 free agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2024 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for nine of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of infielders and designated hitters, including one who also moonlights as a starting pitcher. Read the rest of this entry »

PHOENIX — There are a lot of things I think about more in October than I do in July — Halloween! Hay rides! — but none more so than inevitability. Ideas can have a season, and destiny is the stuff of fall. We look at a series, analyze the players and teams, and look for the sure thing. We know that we’re supposed to acknowledge the randomness of playoff baseball; anything can happen in a short series, after all. But c’mon. C’mon! You thought the Dodgers were going to advance to the NLCS. You weren’t sure — you’re a good nerd — but it felt like they would. It seemed like they should. They won 100 games this season to the Diamondbacks’ 84. They have Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman powering a potent offense. Sure their starters were hurt, but their bullpen was good. They got a bye and a rest and their first two games at home.

And then a funny thing happened: they got beat. They didn’t just lose the NLDS; the Diamondbacks won it, and rather emphatically. When something like that happens, when results run counter to our expectations, we start to look to the underdogs for their own signs of providence. It can all be very flattening, which is a shame, because the plays and players that make up a game deserve to be understood for what they are: not a script, but bits of dynamism unleashed on 48,175 screaming fans. So before we look ahead to the NLCS or back at the Dodgers’ season that was, below are a few such moments and people from Game 3.

The Third Inning
I don’t envy managers their jobs in the postseason. The stakes are unbelievably high, never more so than when you’re staring down potential elimination. You have to manage for today, tomorrow be damned – heck, there might not be a tomorrow. Your task, if you’re Dave Roberts, is to forget about the existence of Clayton Kershaw, Game 4 starter, and spend whatever bullpen bullets you need to in order to survive. Only how could you do that when Clayton Kershaw, Game 1 starter, left such an impression? You might need those bullets. So you watch Lance Lynn give up a leadoff home run to Geraldo Perdomo, who hit six all season. And then after a Corbin Carroll groundout, you watch as Ketel Marte adds another — this one more emphatic at 107.9 mph off the bat. Still you wait. But then Tommy Pham grounds out; Lynn is only at 38 pitches, and the D-backs have a raft of righties stretching all the way to Alek Thomas coming up. You’re almost out of it!

Yeah, about that.

And then, well.

This was the first time in postseason history that a team hit four home runs in an inning, and depending on how generous you’re feeling, Gabriel Moreno did his part twice. (When Moreno’s real-deal home run left the yard, the Chase Field crowd, which had already sung several choruses of “BEAT L.A.,” lost its collective mind. Discrete words couldn’t be mustered; all I could hear from the press box was a roar.) Caleb Ferguson came in to relieve Lynn, but the damage had been done.

The timing of Lynn’s exit deserves some scrutiny. Before Christian Walker’s laser to left field, as the count went to 1-1, the Dodgers bullpen began to stir, but in a wave-your-arms-around-to-loosen-them-up sort of way.

Two pitches into Moreno’s at-bat, the broadcast noted that Ferguson was up and actually throwing. After the game, Roberts said, “You’ve got two outs and a low-pitch count, and you figure that this run of right-handed hitters, you’ve got to be able to navigate it somewhat with two outs, nobody on base. Then two homers later you’re down 4-0. I had some guys ready. Obviously I can’t predict the future. I try not to be reactionary and get ahead of things. I just can’t predict the future. The way he was throwing the baseball, I didn’t expect that.”

But perhaps he should have. Lynn led baseball in home runs allowed this year with 44, a total that represents the sixth-most allowed in a single season in major league history. All those past long balls don’t guarantee future ones, but if you were going to pick a way for Lynn to join the Dodgers’ parade of ineffective Division Series starters — including his performance, LA’s starting trio mustered a disastrous 25.07 ERA across a mere 4.2 innings of work — a home run or two seemed a likely culprit.

In the bottom of the sixth, after Michael Grove had thrown an inning and Alex Vesia was busy dispatching Arizona’s 7-8-9 hitters, the broadcast noted the perhaps curious absence of Ryan Pepiot. Lauren Shehadi offered that Roberts had told her, “Listen, I have to manage this like there are two more games after it. Pepiot, he’s a bulk guy, we’ve seen it all season long, and if I’m going to get through this series, I need to think past Game 3.”

Roberts’ line of thinking about two outs and right-handed hitters and the bases being empty is logical enough when it comes to Lynn. He’s right, too, that a bulk guy might be useful as a backstop to Kershaw, who even when he’s not having a start like he did in Game 1 isn’t exactly going eight strong these days. But both answers suggest a lack of urgency, too great an emphasis on the cares of later and not enough on the here and oh-crap-we’re-about-to-go-home now. Get a guy up! Bring him in! Consider throwing your bulk dude! Worry about tomorrow, tomorrow. In the third inning, a stoppable force met an extremely moveable object, and unfortunately for the Dodgers, Lynn budged. Roberts probably should have done the same.

The Dodgers Offense
We’ve all had bad days at work. The coffee machine breaks, your presentation goes badly, someone’s on a stinky food kick. Sometimes, though, those bad stretches linger. During the regular season, the Dodgers had the third-best wRC+ in the majors. They hit the second-most home runs and had the second-highest wOBA. They scored just 41 fewer runs than the Braves, and the Braves had an historically good offense. Betts and Freeman were simply marvelous.

Then the calendar flipped to October, and suddenly there was printer toner everywhere. By now you’ve probably heard that Betts and Freeman combined to go just 1-for-21 this postseason. All that pair of MVP candidates could muster was an infield single off the bat of Freeman in Game 2. And they weren’t alone. As a unit, the Dodgers hit .177/.248/.250, “good” for a 40 wRC+; they managed four extra-base hits the entire series. They were outscored 19–6 and never led in the series. J.D. Martinez went 0-for-4 in Game 3. A reshuffled Game 3 lineup resulted in Austin Barnes pinch-hitting against Andrew Saalfrank with the bases loaded and two outs in the seventh rather than David Peralta standing in against a lefty. Barnes swung at a first-pitch sinker and grounded out; it was the last time Los Angeles had a runner in scoring position. After Max Muncy struck out in the ninth, Will Smith managed a single, but a pair of flyouts ended the Dodgers’ season, as the Diamondbacks’ bobcat mascot danced around in a red speedo with “BEAT LA” emblazoned on the butt and the players whooped.

It was a bad night at work, and one of the cruel things about baseball is that where the rest of us muddle through lousy meetings and frustrating expense reports in the hopes of getting a break, the best cure for a down game is simply more time at the office. Even when the copy machine is jammed.

The Young Snakes in the NLDS
Perhaps nothing is better for defying expectations than the emergence of young stars. The likes of Carroll and Moreno (who had to leave the game early but is fine) have bolstered the Diamondbacks all season, and the playoffs are no exception:

As MLB.com’s Sarah Langs pointed out, the Diamondbacks are the third team in postseason history with four players age 23 or younger with a home run in a single postseason, joining the 2020 Braves quartet of Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley and Cristian Pache and the 2015 Cubs core of Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler, and Javier Báez.

Brandon Pfaadt
It would be easy to forget Brandon Pfaadt in all of this. A Wild Card sweep and the quirks of when the National League’s off-days fell meant the Diamondbacks were set up to throw Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen twice each in the NLDS. They still needed a Game 3 starter, however, and that job fell to Pfaadt. His initial foray into postseason pitching didn’t go great: seven hits and three earned runs (including a two-run home run) in just 2.2 innings of work in his Wild Card start versus the Brewers. The first three hitters he faced that night reached; he leaned too heavily on his fastball.

His outing Wednesday night went much more smoothly. The rookie needed 17 pitches to retire his first Brewers hitter; in the first inning on Wednesday, a Betts’ groundout required five, fly outs from Freeman and Martinez needed only one apiece, and boom, one inning down. Though still fastball-heavy, he mixed in more changeups along with a few breaking balls, presenting the more varied arsenal that he and the Diamondbacks staff had identified earlier in the week as so important.

It wasn’t all good. Of the 12 balls the Dodgers put in play, six were classified as hard-hit by Statcast, and the double in the fifth that ended his night would have been a home run in 28 other ballparks. He was bolstered by more good bullpen work; though they allowed two runs, the Snakes ‘pen, which had caused so much consternation this season and inspired the deadline trade for Paul Sewald, posted a 3.27 ERA and 2.44 FIP during the DS. But it was a marked improvement, and one the Diamondbacks have to find encouraging. After all, as Lovullo put it to the media on Tuesday, you need more than two pitchers to get through the postseason, and Arizona isn’t done yet.

Read the rest of this entry »

After a thrilling final week of the season that saw the AL West decided on the last day and the race for a Wild Card spot come down to the wire in both leagues, the postseason is here. The field features returning powerhouses, upstart challengers, and a healthy dose of “Dancing On My Own.” And though the playoff bracket boasts three 100-plus-win clubs that could be poised for deep runs, a lot can happen in a short series. That makes it difficult to predict how October will unfold, but 27 of our writers from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs did their best.

Below are our predictions by league and round, as well as each writer’s full forecast (those tables are sortable). You can find our playoff odds here and the ZiPS postseason game-by-game odds here. Happy playoffs!

American League

Wild Card Series

Division Series

League Championship Series

National League

Wild Card Series

Division Series

League Championship Series

World Series

Writer Predictions

Baseball Prospectus’ editor-in-chief Craig Goldstein joins the show to discuss the surging Dodgers (5:26) and what led to their recently concluded win streak, the call-ups of Masyn Winn and Nolan Schanuel (28:07), and the optimal timing of the trade deadline and the draft (44:43), and why Craig doesn’t want to move it back. Plus, Meg and Craig answer emails on keeping relievers in the dark about the score before they enter the game (58:00), how teams might have changed their approach to the offseason and the deadline if they knew that winning the World Series would guarantee that Shohei Ohtani would sign with them (1:03:04), and whether the Padres are trying to save the world by finishing under .500 (1:11:09). Plus, a Future Blast from 2048 (1:22:56).

Audio intro: Xavier LeBlanc, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Dave Armstrong and Mike Murray, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Craig’s podcast Five and Dive
Link to Michael Baumann on the Marlins, Orioles, and Brewers
Link to the FanGraphs playoff odds
Link to Jeffrey Paternostro and Timothy Jackson’s Masyn Winn Call-Up piece
Link to Eric Longenhagen’s Day One Draft recap
Link to Rick Wilber’s website
Link to Future Blast wiki

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With Ben Lindbergh still in Sweden, FanGraphs’ Michael Baumann takes the co-host chair for a spin. He and Meg Rowley begin (2:10) by delighting in a picture of Lance Lynn and Enrique Hernández from Dodgers photo day, then take advantage of Ben’s absence to discuss (7:30) college baseball and how conference realignment might affect the sport (and the athletes who play it). They then turn their attention (32:13) to Cole Hamels, who recently retired, and Félix Hernández, who was recently inducted into the Mariners Hall of Fame. Meg and Michael discuss what Hernández and Hamels meant to each of them, the similarities (and important differences) that marked their respective Hall of the Very Good careers, and what it’s like to have a pitcher ruin a pitch for you. Meg and Michael also discuss (51:00) the most impressive players and tools they’ve seen in person, including Fernando Tatis Jr., Corbin Carroll, and Aaron Judge, plus center field defense and big power. Finally, they close with a Future Blast from 2047 (1 hr 06 min).

Audio intro: The Gagnés, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Tom Rhoads, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Dodgers photo day photos
Link to Michael on Lance Lynn’s first Dodgers start
Link to Michael on conference realignment
Link to Teddy Cahill on conference realignment
Link to Michael on Cole Hamels’ retirement
Link to Meg on Félix Hernández’s final Mariners start
Link to Hamels and Hernández’s career stats
Link to Rick Wilber’s website
Link to Future Blast wiki

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 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

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With Ben Lindbergh in Sweden on Ringer business, FanGraphs’ Ben Clemens joins Meg Rowley for a turn in the co-host chair. Ben and Meg begin (1:40) by discussing the disturbing allegations made against Rays shortstop Wander Franco over the weekend. They then banter (5:00) about the experience of watching baseball while on vacation, before turning their attention to Ben’s Five Things series, the sneaky delights of mid-sized Midwestern cities, the Braves scoring big against Danny Mendick, chalk preseason predictions (and Ben’s beef with Other Ben’s prognostication choices), which teams’ World Series odds might be too light (or too heavy), a milestone Juan Soto walk, players being over and underrated, announcers’ refusal to discuss no-hitters, the joy of local commercials on baseball broadcasts, the Cardinals’ and Pirates’ recent runs of relative success and futility, and who might shake up the standings down the stretch. They close with a Future Blast from 2046 (55:20) and an invitation to play Magic: The Gathering, if you’re into that sort of thing.

Audio intro: Alex Ferrin, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Ted O., “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Evan Drellich and Brittany Ghiroli on the likely next steps in MLB’s investigation into Franco
Link to Ben’s Five Things I Liked (And Didn’t Like) Archive
Link to 21-3 Braves/Mets Box Score
Link to the FanGraphs Playoff Odds
Link to the FanGraphs 2023 staff predictions
Link to Chris Gilligan on shifting playoff odds
Link to Ben’s piece on Michael Lorenzen’s no-hitter
Link to Ben’s (latest) Lars Nootbaar piece
Link to Rick Wilber’s website
Link to Future Blast wiki

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Shohei Ohtani might not have gone anywhere, but the trade deadline saw plenty of other players find new homes. To help you keep track of all the activity, I’ve rounded up all of our deadline pieces in one place. You’ll find the broader preview and summary pieces listed first, followed by a team-by-team listing of the transaction breakdowns that involve your favorite squad, either as buyers or sellers. In instances where we dissected a transaction across multiple pieces, you’ll see them grouped together. I’ll add any other relevant pieces as they go live.

As always, all of the pieces linked below are free to read, but they took time and resources to produce. If you enjoy our coverage of the trade deadline and are in a position to do so, we hope you’ll sign up for a FanGraphs Membership. It’s the best way to both support our work and experience the site. Now, on to the roundup! Read the rest of this entry »

1:00	Dan Szymborski: BASEBALL BASEBALL BASEBALL BASEBALL

1:00	Jay Jaffe: Hi everybody and a very pleasant good afternoon (or morning) to you wherever you may be. Happy 2023 baseball season and welcome to our Opening Day chat!

1:01	Jay Jaffe: Honestly, I don’t think it would take all that much — a couple of key rotation injuries to Houston and a few guys having bigger-than-expected seasons for Seattle while the Angels and Rangers don’t quite get there.

1:00	Dan Szymborski: The Mariners win a number of games in 2023 that is a larger number than the number of games that the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels win!

Read the rest of this entry »