Among the comments Kiley McDaniel and I received from people in baseball regarding the updated draft board we published last week is that Oklahoma quarterback and center fielder Kyler Murray should have probably been on it. Evaluators see him as a crude but gifted speedster with good pop for his size who possesses more projection than most because of his athleticism. Murray is performing this year (.290/.390/.520 at publication) on the baseball field despite little prior in-game experience.
While I’ll consider his merits as an athlete more fully in a moment, it seems important to briefly recount Murray’s somewhat circuitous path to the present. A superstar high-school quarterback, Murray was expected to replace Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M as soon as he reached campus. At the same time, though, he was also a first-round shortstop prospect. He removed himself from MLB draft consideration by refusing to do some of the mandatory paperwork and testing for eligibility. He went to A&M, split QB reps there with Kyle Allen as a freshman, then transferred to Oklahoma, where sat out a year due to NCAA transfer rules. In 2017, he held a clipboard behind Heisman winner Baker Mayfield.
All the while, Murray barely played baseball (although he did spend last summer on the Cape). Now, he’s Oklahoma’s starting center fielder and also locked in another quarterback competition as a redshirt sophomore, juggling bothsports at the same time.
Discussions about Murray invariably lead to which of those sport he should play professionally — and, as part of that, which path might be more lucrative for him. Because Murray is available for the MLB draft this June but not for the NFL’s own draft until next year, baseball has the opportunity to present its case first.
The size of his signing bonus obviously isn’t the only factor Murray is likely to consider. The prospect of a full year as a starter at a big football school — with the possibility of making a run at a Heisman — is probably appealing to him. The reality of football’s health risks — which, for a 5-foot-11 quarterback, might be even riskier — are also likely present.
That said, we can at least try to see if a clearly superior financial path lies ahead for Murray as he comes to a fork in the road this June. To do this, we have to know some things about each sport’s draft and then get some idea of where Murray might be drafted and how he would be compensated in each case.
With the event itself still over a month and a half away, it’s still too early to say with any type of certainty which clubs will select which players in June’s draft. That said, we’ve become familiar enough with industry consensus and player buzz in recent weeks to take a stab at projecting the first 10 picks.
As mentioned yesterday in our updated draft rankings, signability is everything in a hard-capped draft, and most prospects haven’t even met with their advisors yet to set a number, though there have been indications in many cases.
The depth of the class is found in high-school talent in the 20-50 overall range. With the top of the draft unsettled — and with a couple teams featuring lots of extra picks and pool money (draft order) — there will likely be a pick or two among the top 15 signed for well below slot to set up some overslot bonuses at later picks. With the specific dope on every pick getting spottier around the 10th pick, we cut things off there, but there’s plenty of buzz on that 20-50 range as clubs line up contingency options should the board blow up for their first pick.
1. Detroit Tigers – Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn
All of our intel suggests that Mize will be the pick here, provided he doesn’t get hurt and his medical comes back fine. It’s not a 100% slam dunk, but that scenario seems well over 50% likely. In the event things go sideways with Mize, Wisconsin prep CF Jarred Kelenic is the second option and would be signable for a lower bonus, but the weather and competition he’s facing this spring has made him tougher to scout than some other similarly ranked prospects. Wichita State 3B Alec Bohm is another player who has been mentioned here, but he seems like a longshot at this point.
It’s still a little early in the process to reach any firm conclusions, but with the field beginning to take shape, now seems like an appropriate time to update our preseason draft rankings. This list came together after speaking with dozens of scouts over the last few months and seeing most of the players ourselves either last summer or this spring. We went as deep as we felt was appropriate given the information on hand. In this case, that ended up being 55 players — or, most of the draft’s top two rounds. We’ve noted the prep players whom we’ve heard will be a challenge to sign (Adams, Banfield, Denaburg, Hoglund, Kloffenstein, Rocker, Thomas, and Wilcox), although typically, with players ranked this high, all but one or two of will end up reaching an agreement with a club.
We will publish an early mock draft later this week with some player/team connections we’ve been hearing, but it won’t be the whole first round since most teams in the top 10 are still unsure of who will be on the board or what their asking prices will be. In a hard-slotted, bonus-dependent world, these prices dictate most of the first round and almost all of the picks outside of the top ten.
I’ve been driving around Florida this spring, getting looks at a particularly loaded draft class. I also spent last week at the NHSI tournament run by USA baseball in Cary, NC. NHSI is always a solid event, with at least a half-dozen interesting draft prospects appearing over the four days, but this year featured the best crop in the history of the event. Of the 16 participating teams, almost every one had a potential top-five-round draftee to watch.
I already broke down the players I saw and buzz I heard after week one of the college season, and last Friday I reviewed the college players I saw last month. Now here’s all the notable prep players I saw last month, with video, notes on what I saw, and a preview of the area of the list they will rank when Eric and I release an updated draft list next week. Here are our preseason rankings.
Carter Stewart, RHP, Eau Gallie HS (FL), Mississippi State Commit
I wrote up Stewart and Denaburg’s first matchup in one of the pieces linked above, but they had another one a couple weeks later. The first matchup, which took place in front of a double-digit number of scouting directors, placed them both firmly in the middle of the first round, so it was unsurprising to find over 100 scouts and three general managers at this next game. Stewart opened it sitting 92-96 mph and was holding 92-94, hitting 95 mph in the fifth inning. His signature 80-83 mph curveball, with Seth Lugo-level spin rates, flashed the normal 65 or 70 on the 20-80 scale (go to 0:56 for the best one I got on video), and his changeup — which looks about average in warmups and may project above average with more use — wasn’t used in game. I counted 13 Ks for Stewart through 5.2 innings.
It’s been a little while since I emptied my scouting notebook of the draft prospects I’ve scouted, so I’ve split it into college and high-school portions. Below are all of the notable college draft prospects I’ve scouted in the last month, with thoughts on what I saw from them and how the industry views them. First, I’ll break down the prospects projected for the top two rounds, with embedded video. For reference, here are Eric and my preseason draft rankings, which will be updated soon. Below the likely first- and second-rounders are potential third- through sixth-rounds picks. Below that group is a collection of possible first- and second-rounders for the 2019 and 2020 drafts, the most recent rankings for which are available here.
Bohm was seen by most scouts before the season as a first-rounder but also the second-best prospect on his own team behind Greyson Jenista (below). This spring, Bohm has clearly overtaken his teammate and had some scouts whispering that he did some things like Kris Bryant the night I saw him against ECU. To be clear, Bohm isn’t seen as that level of a prospect just yet, but he isn’t as far away as you may think. He has 70 raw power and, even at 6-foot-4, 205 pounds, does a great job at the plate keeping his hands tucked in and limiting his hand load to keep his stroke short. Even with with that, he still can do things like hit an opposite-field home run with a flick of the wrist, as you can see in the above video.
Both Eric and I will be posting in-person scouting reports on draft prospects we see throughout the spring. And through summer, too. And the fall, also, for that matter. Here is my first dispatch from Florida. Other will follow from where I am currently — namely, the Dominican Republic. (See my twitter account for real-time updates.) Here’s Eric’s recap of his first week watching amateur action in Arizona.
There’s been a good bit of draft news since our rankings dropped, so let’s run down the news before I get into the games I saw last weekend.
As I first reported (with an assist from Eric), the No. 3 overall prospect on our preseason board, Georgia prep RHP Ethan Hankins, left a start in the first inning with an arm injury that was later revealed to be a sore shoulder. It’s believed that this is just a minor setback that will be resolved with weeks of rehab, which shouldn’t severely impact his draft stock.
Some scouts with whom I spoke before Hankins’ injury were mildly concerned that his debut ranked third behind behind those of Florida prep righties Mason Denaburg and Carter Stewart. (more on those two below.) News regarding Hankins’ injury helps to explain his ineffectiveness, though. He’ll have plenty of time to get healthy and back on track. Here’s to hoping it’s as minor of an injury as expected.
We lost two notable college arms — Texas Tech LHP Stephen Gingery (a second- to third-round prospect) and Florida State LHP Tyler Holton (a performer with solid stuff who didn’t sign in last year’s draft as an eligible sophomore) — to torn UCLs over the weekend.
Beyond that, some quick hit notes from around the country:
No. 2 on our list, Arizona prep 3B Nolan Gorman, hit an opposite-field homer in his team’s first action last weekend.
Eric saw Oregon State this weekend and will see them again, so he’s holding off on writing about them, but it sounds like 2B Nick Madrigal (No. 6 on our list) and RF Trevor Larnach (No. 29) met and exceeded expectations, respectively, on opening weekend.
No. 7 on our list, Stetson RHP Logan Gilbert, featured stuff that was down a tick, but he was effective anyway (and it’s early). Another college pitcher and No. 8 prospect, Ole Miss LHP Ryan Rolison, apparently had a tick better stuff in his debut, flashing 55-60s not only on all three pitches but also his command. One scout described it as “a top-five-pick performance.” I also heard some buzz that the debut of a third collegiate, No. 18 Auburn RHP Casey Mize, was as impressive as his line, and he has some top-10 pick momentum now as well.
No. 9 prospect, California prep SS Brice Turang, went deep after fellow California prep RHP Cole Winn (who would’ve been in the 30s of our list if we went a little deeper) exited the game. Winn was 90-95 and touching 96 mph when he faced Turang. Winn is also known for having one of the highest-spin curveballs in the class, behind Notorious RPM Carter Stewart
No. 23 on our list, Florida prep CF Connor Scott may already be making that Austin Beck-esque move up the board we mentioned in the draft rankings, hitting a homer earlier this week and continuing to grow on scouts with his wide base of standout tools. Another prep arm, No. 22 RHP Kumar Rocker from Georgia, was solid in his season debut, working 94-98 mph for three innings.
No. 19 on our list, Oregon RHP Matt Mercer met expectations in his debut outing, with the expected above average four pitch mix and mid-90’s velocity. We’ve also heard from some scouts that it appears both No. 17 on our list South Alabama CF Travis Swaggerty and Oklahoma RF Steele Walker (just missed the top 30) have added more loft to their swings. Both weren’t really homer threats last summer for Team USA but hit homers this weekend playing in the same tournament in Myrtle Beach. Swaggerty and Walker both have enough raw power to move up boards if they can successfully make and sustain this adjustment.
Among players who just missed the top-30 group, Connecticut LHP Tim Cate has some big believers, while others think he’s just a smallish reliever, with one scout reserving judgment on his debut saying he was “just fine.” Stanford RHP Tristan Beck was healthy (a big accomplishment for him at this point), and his stuff was mostly back, which could land him in the middle of round one if he can do that for the rest of the spring.
Also, Florida State RHP Cole Sands was into the mid-90s in his debut, and scouts are telling me I need to get in to see the Seminoles to check out their likely new Friday starter (taking Holton’s spot), 2018-eligible bats OF Jackson Lueck and C Cal Raleigh, along with 2019-eligible 3B Drew Mendoza. In what already appeared to be a banner year for talent in Florida colleges and preps, things keeps getting better.
Now, on to the guys I personally scouted last weekend:
Carter Stewart, RHP, Eau Gallie HS (FL)
In the draft-rankings blurb, we noted that Stewart’s curveball is his separator, with some scouts projecting it to a 70 on the 20-80 scale. If his 88-92 mph fastball from this summer can get into the mid-90s, however, he’ll likely rise into the early to mid-stages of the first round. In his season debut, his velocity was 91-94 mph for the whole three-inning outing, pitching in front of 12 of the 30 scouting directors by my count. This was because Denaburg (below) was going in the nightcap at the same field as part of a PBR tournament and, the next day, Florida, Stetson, and USF would all be featuring top-15 type arms within driving distance. Stewart’s curveball wasn’t its normal self, more 50 to 55 with a couple 60s mixed in at 78-82 mph. For a long-limbed teenage pitcher in his season debut, however, throwing a consistently sharp curveball is a tall order.
Both Kiley and I will be posting in-person scouting reports on draft prospects we see throughout the spring. Well, summer and fall, too. Here is my first dispatch from Arizona.
Grand Canyon RHP Jake Wong was on the periphery of our preseason top 30, as scouts pegged him as a second- or third-round prospect entering the year. He dominated top-10-ranked TCU on Friday night, allowing two hits and two walks over six inning, striking out nine.
Wong was 94-96 in the first inning before settling into the 92-94 range, touching 95 here and there throughout the rest of his start. The fastball missed bats up above, and within, the strike zone and induced weak ground-ball contact when located down. It’s a plus fastball and easily Wong’s best pitch.
His secondaries were pretty generic. He has an upper-70s curveball that has some depth to it when located beneath the strike zone, but it lacks bite and he babies it into the zone when he wants to throw it for a strike. His changeup ranged from 84 to 89 mph. He has feel for locating it in competitive locales, and it occasionally has bat-missing movement, but it isn’t consistent right now.
Kiley McDaniel: A few minutes late after being taken on a circuitous route by my dog, it’s Kiley chat
12:09
A big dumb idiot: *extremely seinfeld voice* Whaaaaats the deal with prospects
12:09
PAC-12 FAN: You seem lower on Toglia and higher on Rutschman than some other outlets (D1, BP) were this past summer. Obviously you can’t speak for them but do you have any idea on what you may dislike/like with these two prospects that other evaluators may not?
12:10
Kiley McDaniel: Didn’t think I’d get questions parsing the specific rankings of the 2019 MLB Draft list but here we are. Main difference here is Toglia (1B/RF, UCLA) is bat-only and doesn’t have huge power whereas Rutschman (C, Oregon State) has comparable, above average raw power and is a better athlete who can catch.
12:11
Geebs: Is this another chat dominated by prospect conversation? If so please tell us now so I can leave, I’ve had my fill.
12:12
Kiley McDaniel: This chat is what you make of it and it seems like you’re a Debbie Downer
To answer your first question: no, there isn’t a slam-dunk, generational talent among the prospects ranked below. We’ll have to wait a little longer, it seems, for the next Bryce Harper to emerge. Nevertheless, the 2018 draft class is generally seen as deep and strong, particularly in prep pitching. There isn’t a player yet on whom we’d currently put a 55 FV (that is, the lowest grade received by the first 42 prospects on the recently published top-100 list), but almost every draft class ends up with a couple of those, and obviously these names will shift around during the season.
For reference, last year’s draft ended up with one low 60 FV and five players with 55 FV grades by the time the offseason arrived. So expecting three to five of the following prospects to emerge in the top 50 of next year’s Top 100 seems reasonable. As you might guess, the top 10-15 prospects are pretty tightly packed. With most of the early-season action occurring in Arizona, Florida, and SoCal, we’ll both be out to get lots of early looks this spring to quickly start sorting more out.
It’s too early to do a mock draft that would amount to anything much greater than a collection of guesses (here’s the draft order, for reference), but something to monitor is the presence of those clubs that lean risk-averse/analytic/etc. in the top half of the first round. In light of certain trends within the game — and, in particular, what appears to be a greater interest in near-ready, low-end-regular types — this could push college players (and, specifically, college bats) up into the high first round. Both Oregon State and Missouri State have TrackMan units at their home parks, so clubs will have multiple years of data on Madrigal and Eierman to aid their evaluations. Hitters from Virginia have benefited in much the same way from strong, large-sample TrackMan data in recent drafts.
Just as the recent minor-league top-100 list prominently featured the sons of Dante Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero, and Fernando Tatis, the lists that follow also feature quite a bit in the way of bloodlines. We have the sons of Jeff Conine, Troy Percival, David Weathers, and Bobby Witt, along with the younger brothers of Pirates Triple-A RHP Nick Kingham, Rays Double-A 1B/LF Joe McCarthy, Padres Double-A 1B Josh Naylor, and Blue Jays Triple-A CF Dalton Pompey. Kumar Rocker’s father, meanwhile, is Tracy Rocker, a former NFL defensive tackle and current defensive line coach for Tennessee.
We could have ranked more players or included more names for each list (especially projectable high-school arms), but we chose to limit ourselves in this preseason installment. Things will obviously expand as we get more information. We’ll have a slightly different presentation of the list than in years past, to more closely resemble the sort of information at what clubs are looking in draft rooms. We’ll both be at games starting this week and will keep you guys updates with tweets and InstaGraphs posts (along with longer posts when warranted) and updated rankings a couple more times leading up to the draft.
