There were a few times during the ALCS when I glanced up at a game and mistook Chas McCormick for Jose Altuve. Why? Both he and McCormick don’t set their feet in the box like a typical hitter would. Instead, they have distinct foot placement which aligns their front shoulder with the right fielder instead of the typical alignment with the center fielder. In McCormick’s case, it’s more pronounced than that of Altuve. And that’s not just in the setup; it includes the extent to which the Astros outfielder strides closed as well.

Every hitter, player, human, etc. has a different body. Depending on one’s body and its strengths and limitations, different adjustments need to be made to get the most out of that body when it comes to swinging a baseball bat. You may think it’s weird or ugly, but that doesn’t matter. McCormick’s closed setup and stride unlock a part of his game that he otherwise would not have. During the ALCS, I progressively came to realize he is a dangerous hitter when he drives the ball to the opposite field. If you pitch to his strengths that play into his inside-out bat path, then he can get lift on the ball and pepper the short porch in Minute Maid Park. Read the rest of this entry »

How much should a team’s postseason strategy differ from its regular-season tactics? Overall, probably not that much; if your club makes it to the postseason, it ain’t broke, so to speak. Further, I generally believe the postseason is not the time to experiment with new gameplans that always carry some heightened risk. But historically, there are myriad ways that teams have shaken things up come October.

This especially seems to be the case when a team is down in a series. Take the Yankees in the ALCS this year — that squad went with three different leadoff hitters in four games, moves that had little to do with platoon splits. They faced one lefty starter during the series, Framber Valdez, and had righty Harrison Bader lead off that game, but Bader also led off in Game 4 against fellow righty Lance McCullers Jr.; lefty Anthony Rizzo and righty Gleyber Torres led off the other two games against right-handers. The Yankees also had three different starting shortstops in the series. Read the rest of this entry »

Framber Valdez isn’t the marquee pitcher in this World Series. He’s a solid fourth by reputation, with the top trio some of the brightest pitching lights of the last five years: Justin Verlander, Aaron Nola, and Zack Wheeler. Two games into the series, that top trio have been uniformly bad. Each has given up five runs, hardly the dominant performances they’re known for. Valdez? He stands untouched and mostly unchallenged, allowing a solitary run over 6 1/3 innings to pace the Astros to a 5-2 victory in Game 2.

When Valdez is on his game – and he’s always on his game, setting the major league record for most consecutive quality starts this year – he mixes a snapdragon curveball with a sinker that warps gravity, drawing the ball inexorably downward. He was in fine form Saturday night against a tough Philadelphia lineup. He got awkward swings seemingly at will, weak grounders whenever he needed them, and had a beautiful curveball in his back pocket whenever the opportunity for a strikeout presented itself.

The Phillies have been swinging early and often this postseason. That’s a horrid plan against Valdez; his biggest weakness is an occasional lapse in command. Even tonight, in one of the best performances of his career, he walked three Phillies. If you can lay off his curveball – easier said than done – he’ll sometimes spray a few sinkers and put you on base. Read the rest of this entry »

Through the first three rounds of the playoffs, two competing storylines took shape: The Astros, indomitable, sheared through the American League undefeated. The Phillies, resilient, ebullient, and unpredictable, shocked the National League by dominating the senior circuit’s best.

When these two narratives finally intersected in Houston Friday night, spraying hits and disorder all over the field like debris from a train crash, the result was an instant classic. The Astros dominated early, staking out an early five-run lead that by all rights ought to have demoralized their opposition. But the Phillies, a $255 million monument to not knowing when you’re beaten, struck right back for a historic comeback win:

How historic? The Phillies’ 6-5 win was the biggest comeback by an NL team in the World Series since 1956. When Houston’s win probability peaked with one out in the top of the fourth, they were roughly 16-to-1 favorites to win the game. Instead, the Phillies erased that lead in two innings, hung around long enough for J.T. Realmuto to win the game in the top of the 10th, and survived a Houston rally that came within 180 feet of turning a series-changing Phillies win into a crushing loss. Read the rest of this entry »

8:02	David Laurila: Greetings all. Go Astros. Go Phillies. Go baseball.

8:04	David Laurila: I got both a flu shot and a Covid booster yesterday, and am really dragging today, but fortunately I have a few energetic colleagues joining the chat shortly.

8:04	Dan Szymborski: Greetings peoples!

8:05	Alex Sonty: Man, Justin. I remember us getting up with you in 2020 to play KBO DFS.

Read the rest of this entry »

In this year’s regular season, games took a pretty pronounced step away from three true outcomes hitting. Home runs dropped from 3.3% of plate appearances in 2021 to 2.9%, walks from 8.7% to 8.2%, and strikeouts — this one in part thanks to replacing nearly 5,000 pitcher plate appearances with designated hitters — fell from 23.2% to 22.4%. All told, the percentage of plate appearances winding up in one of these results dropped 1.7 percentage points, from 35.1% to 33.4% — the most profound drop since 1988.

There are a lot of theories as to why this could be happening, from the universal designated hitter to more changes in the balls to humidors, but the fact is, after this figure dropped nearly one percentage point from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season to ’21, this year marks the second of a league-wide trend away from the trio. Which makes it all the more fun that when the Phillies and Astros take the field in Houston tonight for Game 1 of the World Series, it will be National League home run and strikeout champion Kyle Schwarber digging in to lead off the Fall Classic.

In his first season in Philadelphia this year, Schwarber was as much of a three true outcomes hitter as there was. No other player this season finished in the 90th percentile or above in home run rate and walk rate and in the bottom 10th in strikeout rate. That isn’t to say there aren’t other players in that mold; indeed, there are many. Giancarlo Stanton and Eugenio Suárez hit 31 home runs apiece and both finished in the bottom 10% in strikeout rate but landed in the second decile in walk rate. Max Muncy, who led off a World Series in 2018, leans pretty heavily in that direction. Matt Chapman, Daniel Vogelbach, and Joey Gallo all fit the bill to some degree, the latter most prototypically in previous seasons. But in 2022, nobody took it to the extreme that Schwarber did; he hit more home runs than anyone other than Aaron Judge, led the majors with 200 strikeouts, and finished sixth with 86 walks. While about a third of PA league-wide ended in one of the true outcomes, just about half — 49.6% — of Schwarber’s did. Read the rest of this entry »

On Friday night, Justin Verlander will take the next step in his remarkable season by starting Game 1 of the World Series against the Phillies. For all that he’s accomplished in a career that will likely gain him first-ballot entry into the Hall of Fame, success in the Fall Classic has eluded him, but not for lack of opportunity. He does have a World Series ring from the Astros’ 2017 championship (tainted though it is by subsequent revelations of the team’s illegal electronic sign-stealing), but on a personal level, his Series history has combined some bad luck with a few real clunkers.

A nine-time All-Star with three no-hitters and two Cy Young awards under his belt (with a third probably on the way), Verlander is the active leader in wins (244), strikeouts (3,198, 12th all-time), and S-JAWS (64.0, 20th all-time). That’s the resumé of a surefire Hall of Famer, and we’re talking about one who’s still near the peak of his powers. At 39 years old, he’s coming off an historic season (the best for any Tommy John surgery recipient in the back half of his 30s), and that after missing nearly two full seasons. Despite losing 18 days late in the season to a right calf injury, he led the AL in ERA (1.75), xERA (2.66), and WAR (6.4), ranking third in FIP (2.49) and fifth in K-BB% (23.4%). After getting tagged for six runs and 10 hits by the Mariners in the Division Series opener, he dominated the Yankees by strking out 11 and allowing just one run in six innings in the ALCS opener. He’s still lighting up the radar gun at 98 mph when he needs it.

But while he’s pitched some postseason gems in his career — including a complete-game, four-hit shutout against the A’s in the deciding game of the 2012 Division Series; a 13-strikeout, one-run complete game against the Yankees in Game 2 of the 2017 ALCS (the last postseason complete game); and five other starts with at least 10 strikeouts and at most one run allowed — he’s never come close to a dominant World Series start. In fact, he’s 0–6 with a 5.68 ERA in seven starts totaling 38 innings, with a whopping nine homers (2.1 per nine) allowed. Those numbers stand out for all of the wrong reasons.

For one thing, those six losses are more than any other World Series pitcher besides Whitey Ford, who lost eight times, albeit in a record 22 starts, and the Chairman of the Board offset that with 10 wins, also a record. You know how we feel about pitcher wins and losses around here; they’re imperfect barometers of performance that greatly depend upon the support one receives from their offense, defense, and bullpen. But they are a subject of discussion in this context.

As you can probably surmise, Verlander has the most World Series starts of any pitcher without a win:

That list has some pretty good pitchers, but no Hall of Famers; Brown is probably the closest besides Verlander, but for all of the work he did in helping the Marlins and Padres get to the World Series (four postseason wins in six starts including a two-hit shutout in NLCS Game 2 in 1998), three of his four stats there were ugly. Newcombe had a great debut in 1949 (eight innings, 11 strikeouts, one run) but wound up on the wrong end of a 1–0 score and thereafter made it past the fourth inning just one time in four tries. Root gave up Babe Ruth’s “Called Shot.” Williams was one of the eight players permanently banned from baseball for helping to fix the 1919 World Series.

Meanwhile, Verlander has the eighth-highest ERA of any pitcher with at least 20 innings in World Series starts:

My, but that’s a lot of Dodgers; six of the 15 highest starter ERAs are linked to the franchise, including four from their 1947–56 run of six pennants. They lost five of those World Series (1947, ’49, ’52, ’53, and ’56) but won in 1955, with Newcombe, Erskine, Craig, and Loes all making one start; only Craig’s netted a win or was any good. It was left up to Johnny Podres, whose two starts included a Game 7 shutout, to play the hero.

Note that several of these pitchers also made relief appearances that aren’t included within the data above, including Kershaw, whose four shutout innings under desperate circumstances in Game 7 of 2017 (after Yu Darvish was chased) lowers his overall World Series ERA to 4.46. It took two very good starts in the 2020 World Series, where he was instrumental in securing that elusive World Series ring, to get him down from 5.40 — a reminder that so much of this is just a matter of repeated opportunities, not an inability to perform at his peak at this level.

For as bad as the overall numbers are, not all of Verlander’s World Series starts have been dreadful. Here’s the game log, followed by a quick summary of each start.

2006 Game 1, Tigers vs. Cardinals

After debuting the previous September, the 23-year-old Verlander won AL Rookie of the Year honors (17–9. 3.63 ERA), but he was erratic in the postseason — able to hit triple digits but lacking in command. He scuffled in his Division Series start against the Yankees and ALCS start against the A’s, lasting 5.1 innings in both and allowing a total of seven runs. Facing the Cardinals, who had gone just 83–78 but who had a star-studded lineup, he needed 18 pitches to get through the first inning, striking out Albert Pujols to end it. He surrendered a solo homer to Scott Rolen in the second, and Pujols exacted revenge with two-run homer in the third, that after Chris Duncan had doubled home a run. Verlander didn’t retire any of the three batters he faced in the fifth, allowing one run before departing (via a Jim Edmonds single) and getting charged with two, one unearned, after leaving. Not pretty.

2006 Game 5, Tigers vs. Cardinals

Verlander got the ball again with the Tigers trailing three games to one, and he certainly pitched better than in the opener, but he couldn’t hold out against the team of destiny and was outpitched by former Tiger Jeff Weaver. The Cardinals singled the rookie into submission, with David Eckstein driving in a run in the second and another in the fourth, the latter of which gave St. Louis a 3–2 lead. Before that run, a Verlander throwing error on a fielder’s choice off the bat of Weaver — his second error of the series and the fifth by a Tigers hurler — kindled a Tim McCarver lecture about the importance of pitcher fielding practice that some say is still going.

2012 Game 1, Tigers vs. Giants

After allowing just two runs in 24.1 innings across three starts in the first two playoff rounds against the A’s and Yankees (with pitch counts of 121, 122, and 132), Verlander had a full seven days of rest before his World Series start after the Tigers swept the Yankees. Maybe the rust was to blame for this one. He served up a solo homer to Pablo Sandoval in the first, then a two-run shot to Sandoval in the third after Marco Scutaro drove in a run. In the fourth, opposite number Barry Zito even drove in a run. Sandoval would homer again to complete the trifecta, but it came against Al Alburquerque in the fifth, with Verlander having already hit the showers. He never got a second chance in this series, as the Tigers were swept.

2017 Game 2, Astros vs. Dodgers

Traded to the Astros on August 31 after a 12-year run with the Tigers, Verlander was stellar down the stretch, pitching to a 1.06 ERA in five starts and striking out 43 in 34 innings. He carried that momentum in to the playoffs, even winning ALCS MVP honors against the Yankees by allowing just one run in 16 innings, striking out 21.

For the first time, Verlander pitched pretty well in a World Series game, retiring the first nine Dodgers and not surrendering a hit until Joc Pederson’s solo homer in the fifth. He found trouble with two outs in the sixth, walking Chris Taylor and then yielding a two-run homer to Corey Seager before departing on the short end of a 3–1 score. The Astros got him off the hook, scoring runs off Kenley Jansen in the eighth and ninth, and wound up winning a wild one — featuring a total of five homers in the 10th and 11th — in 11 innings.

2017 Game 6, Astros vs. Dodgers

After the Astros won Game 5, 13–12, Verlander took the mound with a chance to clinch a championship. He hung zeroes through the first five frames, with a second-inning single by Yasiel Puig the only blemish. Meanwhile, George Springer’s homer off Rich Hill put the Astros up 1–0. But after Austin Barnes led off the sixth with a single, the Dodgers’ lineup went to town in its third look at Verlander. After Chase Utley was hit with a pitch, Taylor hit a game-tying RBI double, and Seager followed with a sacrifice fly to give the Dodgers the lead. Verlander departed after stranding Taylor at third, but the Dodgers held on to win, 3–1, and extend the series to Game 7.

2019 Game 2, Astros vs. Nationals

This time around, Verlander reached the World Series after two very good and two not-so-good starts in the Division Series against the Rays and ALCS against the Yankees. He got off on the wrong foot here, as the first three Nationals reached safely, with Anthony Rendon smacking a two-run double on an 0–2 pitch to put Verlander in the hole immediately. Alex Bregman‘s two-run homer off Stephen Strasburg tied the game in the bottom of the first, and while Verlander didn’t throw a 1-2-3 inning until the sixth, he did his part to keep the game tied until serving up a solo homer to Kurt Suzuki to lead off the seventh. He departed after walking Victor Robles, which kindled a five-run rally on Ryan Pressly’s watch. The game ended as a 12–3 rout, but for those first six innings, it was a tight one.

2019 Game 6, Astros vs. Nationals

After the Nationals won Games 1 and 2 on the road, the Astros went to Washington and took the next three, so Verlander once again took the mound with a chance to clinch. As in Game 2, Rendon plated a first-inning run, this time with an RBI single. The Astros answered with two runs off Strasburg in the bottom of the first, but Verlander gave up the lead with solo homers by Adam Eaton and Juan Soto in the fifth and left trailing 3–2. Again, the Nationals broke the game open in the late innings, winning 7–2 and forcing a Game 7. Astros manager A.J. Hinch ruled out using Verlander, who had thrown 93 pitches, in relief but did not rule out using Game 5 starter Gerrit Cole. He didn’t get the call either as the Astros fell.

In all, that’s not a great track record. Verlander sometimes struggled early, and sometimes was dealing until he wasn’t. He’s made three quality starts out of seven and lost a fourth one by lingering past the sixth. He hasn’t gotten an out in the seventh or later in any of those starts and has only topped 100 pitches twice. To be fair, he also hasn’t had much margin for error, as his teams have scored just 20 runs in his seven starts; the one time they scored more than three (Game 2 in 2017), four of the runs came in extra innings. That he’s never left a World Series game with a lead isn’t entirely his fault.

The good news for Verlander is that he gets another shot; having another chance to pitch in a World Series is no doubt one of the reasons he re-signed with the Astros in the first place. If Reggie Jackson’s line, “When you have the bat in your hand, you can always change the story,” is true for a hitter in a big spot, then same thing is true for a pitcher taking the mound in a World Series opener. Just by doing so, Verlander, at 39 years and 250 days old, will become the fourth-oldest pitcher to start Game 1 of the Fall Classic:

Another rough start won’t break Verlander’s legacy any more than a great one will make it. He’s one of the all-time greats, regardless of what happens against the Phillies, but his career will feel that much more complete if he pitches up to his potential.

Jose Altuve takes off, running as fast as he can down the line. The throw is coming in faster, sailing toward the bag. You can tell it’s going to be a close call, and indeed it is. The umpire extends his arms, signaling safe, and the crowd erupts into either emphatic cheers or cacophonous boos, depending on whether this hypothetical call takes place in Houston or Philadelphia. The whole play lasts only a few short seconds, but it’s one of the most thrilling moments of the entire game.

What I am describing is an infield hit — one of the most overlooked plays in baseball. It’s not surprising that home runs, extra-base hits and the like get a little more attention, especially since infield hits are just as often the result of poor defense or a lucky bounce as they are the result of true offensive skill. Yet as individual plays, infield singles are exactly what make baseball so exciting. There are few batted ball events as highly suspenseful as those in which an infield hit is possible. Those four to five seconds between the contact and the call can get your heart racing nearly as fast as the runner himself. Infield hits represent a true battle between batter, fielder, and even the field itself. On top of that, the ever-present possibility of an infield single is exactly what makes every routine ground ball worth watching.

This year, we have the privilege of watching two of the very best infield hitters in the game face off in the World Series. Altuve and Jean Segura are the active leaders in infield hits, the former with 247 and the latter right behind him with 244. They both passed Elvis Andrus on the active leaderboard this season, who himself reached the top of the leaderboard when Hunter Pence retired in 2020. FanGraphs began tracking infield hits in 2002, and in that time Segura and Altuve each rank among the top ten. Both just 32 years old, they have plenty of time to climb the ranks, too. Within a few years, they should find themselves second and third behind only infield hit god Ichiro Suzuki. Now if you don’t mind, I’d like to a moment to appreciate how they both got here. Read the rest of this entry »

Hello there! Here’s a graph.

Were you not geared up for such a quick graph? Did I blow it right by you? That was kind of the point. The graph shows the run value of fastballs, bucketed in 1-mph increments. Over the past four seasons, for every 100 fastballs thrown, one tick of velocity has been worth roughly an eighth of a run. The lesson? Throw your fastballs fast.

I’ll stick to fastballs in this article, but I should mention that harder soft stuff is also associated with better outcomes, though the correlation is weaker and the effect is less dramatic. My number crunching indicates that over 100 breaking and offspeed pitches, an extra mile per hour is worth roughly 1/16 of a run. Read the rest of this entry »

Every October, I eagerly await the latest installment of Jay Jaffe’s series about the state of starting pitching in the playoffs (his look at relievers is also a highlight). Last year, that waiting was almost rubbernecking; I wanted to see how absurdly short the postseason starts had gotten, and I wasn’t disappointed – thanks, opener Corey Knebel. This year, I was excited to see a rebound because I’m a sucker for playoff pitching duels. Again, I wasn’t disappointed; as Jay noted, start length has exploded this year, to the highest mark since 2019 and second-highest since ’16.

That tracks perfectly with my experience of this year’s slate of games. Sure, there were some games like the deciding Padres/Phillies clash where neither starter escaped the first inning, but for the first time in ages, aces pitching into the seventh has felt more like the rule than the exception this year. Yu Darvish totaled 25 innings across four starts. Zack Wheeler has amassed 25.1 innings in four starts, and he’s coming back for more. Framber Valdez and Joe Musgrove have each averaged more than six innings per start. Six is the new seven; in modern baseball, these qualify as workhorse performances.

You should read Jay’s article if you haven’t already. It’s one of my favorite recurring features — it’s that and my postseason managerial report cards, except with Jay’s series, I get the great pleasure of reading instead of having to pore over every game log countless times myself. When you’re done reading Jay, though, I have a treat: I got my hands on a database of postseason game logs, which means I can do some fun permutations and take a closer look at this season’s postseason starters. Read the rest of this entry »