The 2023 regular season was a tumultuous one for the Arizona Diamondbacks. They were one of baseball’s best teams in the first half, with the fourth-best record in the league on July 1. Then in the month of July, they went just 8-16, tied for the second-worst record in baseball. They started August off on a nine-game losing streak before going 11-2 in their next 13 games. The rest of the season would be much of the same – losing five of six, then winning five of six, and so on and so forth. The club secured a playoff spot with an 8-2 stretch from September 15–27, before losing its final four regular-season games. From a playoff-odds perspective, the roller coaster looked like this:

If one of the defining characteristics of the Diamondbacks’ 2023 regular season was volatility, the bullpen was no exception. After a slow start, the group had a strong May, collapsed to be one of the league’s worst in July, and battled back to have a quite effective final month. By the time they’d played 162, 30 pitchers had appeared in relief for Arizona – just two NL teams used more. Entering a short-series playoff format (have you heard about the short-series playoff format?), the pressure was on for the rostered subset to find their best, holding leads when they had them and keeping games close when they didn’t. Through two rounds, they’ve more than answered the call:

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As I’ve done for the past few years, I’m going to be grading each eliminated postseason manager on their decision-making. We spend the year mostly ignoring managers’ on-field contributions, because to be honest, they’re pretty small. Using the wrong reliever in the eighth inning just doesn’t feel that bad on June 22; there are so many more games still coming, and the regular season is more about managing the grind than getting every possible edge every day. The playoffs aren’t like that; with so few games to separate wheat from chaff, every last ounce of win probability matters, and managers make personnel decisions accordingly. What better time to grade them?

My goal is to evaluate each manager in terms of process, not results. If you bring in your best pitcher to face their best hitter in a huge spot, that’s a good decision regardless of outcome. Try a triple steal with the bases loaded only to have the other team make four throwing errors to score three runs? I’m probably going to call that a blunder even though it worked out. Managers do plenty of other things – getting team buy-in for new strategies and unconventional bullpen usage behind closed doors is a skill I find particularly valuable – but as I have no insight into how that’s accomplished or how each manager differs, I can’t exactly assign grades for it.

I’m also purposefully avoiding vague qualitative concerns like “trusting your veterans because they’ve been there before.” Playoff coverage lovingly focuses on clutch plays by proven performers, but Evan Carter and the entire Diamondbacks roster have been great too. Forget trusting your veterans – the playoffs are about trusting your best players. Carlos Correa is important because he’s a great player, not because of the number of playoff series he’s appeared in. There’s nothing inherently good about having been around a long time; when I’m evaluating decisions, “but he’s a veteran” just doesn’t enter my thought process. I’ve already covered the losing managers of the Wild Card round, as well as Brandon Hyde’s efforts. Today, it’s Rocco Baldelli’s turn. Read the rest of this entry »

If you need a reminder that anything can happen in a short postseason series, this is it, because the Phillies and Diamondbacks just pulled off two of the biggest upsets in postseason history as defined by regular season winning percentage differentials. The Phillies (90-72, .556) upended the Braves (104-58, .642) in a four-game thriller that left presumptive NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. speechless while the Diamondbacks (84-78, .519) swept the Dodgers (100-62, .617) into oblivion, holding MVP candidate Mookie Betts hitless and knocking Clayton Kershaw out in the first inning.

Perhaps the results shouldn’t have been quite as shocking as they were, given that we’ve all seen our share of October upsets. The Phillies should remind us of that, as a cast very similar to this year’s knocked off a powerhouse Braves team on the way to their first pennant in 13 years just last season. It’s worth remembering as we evaluate any postseason team that they’ve all undergone substantial changes — some for the better, some for the worse — on their way through the 162-game season and the first two rounds of the postseason.

By the regular season numbers, this would appear to be a mismatch, with the Phillies having an edge in every category except strikeout and walk rates, stolen bases, and baserunning. Thus far in the postseason, however, the two teams have been very similar, each thumping 13 homers and producing similar slash lines. The Phillies have hit .274/.354/.538 (137 wRC+), scoring 52% of their runs via homers, and stealing nine bases, while the Diamondbacks have hit .262/.347/.530 (133 wRC+), scoring 47% of their runs via homers, and stealing seven bases. That said, it’s a stretch to suggest the two lineups are of equal strength, particularly given that Arizona doesn’t have a left-handed option to start, though some of Philadelphia’s righties are vulnerable to same-side pitching. Read the rest of this entry »

One of my favorite things about observing the playoffs is seeing a team that has a plan and is unwilling to compromise on it. The first two innings of ALCS Game 1 were fast-paced, and a lot of that was due to the Rangers’ approach of attacking every pitch they got in the zone from Justin Verlander. The first eight Texas batters all swung at the first strikes they saw — every single one. After Leody Taveras walked on four pitches, Marcus Semien did the same even as he got a slider in a 2–0 count. Corey Seager continued the trend in the top of the third, but the streak ended after Mitch Garver took an 0–0 curveball in the zone.

The Rangers knew their best chance of getting to Verlander would be early. In 2023, his wOBA allowed the first time through the lineup was .315, then dropped to .266 the second time through and .267 the third time. Once he settles in with his command, he’s less prone to mistakes. That same trend played out in Game 1. Despite getting five batters on the first time through the order, the Rangers only managed to scratch one run across. And because of Texas’ aggression and putting the ball in play early in counts, Verlander’s pitch count was low; he finished the third with only 37 pitches. Read the rest of this entry »

Ah, the playoffs. The smell of fall in the air, the sight of towel waving and packed stadiums across the country, and the endless stream of pontification on social media. Are the Rays just not built for the postseason due to a lack of star power? Have the Dodgers been playoff slouches because they’re too dependent on their stars? Do the Astros know something about how Martín Maldonado manages a pitching staff that we don’t? Do we know more about how to manage a pitching staff than John Schneider? The list goes on.

Especially with the new opportunities to weigh in given the expanded playoff structure, it’s been harder than ever to hone in on ideas worth pondering, let alone hypotheses that are falsifiable. But the other day, a xweet from MLB Network researcher Jessica Brand caught my eye:

Of the 145 pitchers with 50.0+ innings pitched in the playoffs, their average ERA changes by -0.32. Genuinely surprised it's to their favor too!

Worried about outliers? Median further cements this point, at -0.36.

44 of 145 go up, 100 go down, 1 stays the same: Catfish Hunter. https://t.co/AcqKFqyJyA

— Jessica Brand (@JessicaDBrand) October 9, 2023

Thanks to our handy new postseason leaderboards, this was indeed an interesting assertion that I could test. I limited my sample to hurlers who not only tossed at least 50 frames in the playoffs, but who also managed 500 innings in the regular season. There were 142 pitchers who met these criteria, and they averaged an ERA three tenths of a run lower in the playoffs. Per a paired-samples t-test, this result was statistically significant. Read the rest of this entry »

José Abreu did not have a good season. Signed to a three-year deal by the Astros last November, the 36-year-old first baseman turned in the worst campaign of his 10-year major league career, and even after digging out of a deep early-season slump, he ended up as the least valuable regular at his position. Even so, Abreu has been able to turn the page since the start of the playoffs, and his three home runs against the Twins were a major reason the Astros won the Division Series.

Abreu went just 1-for-7 in the first two games against Minnesota, though his lone hit, a fifth-inning single off Kenta Maeda in Game 1, drove in Houston’s fourth run in what ended up as a 6–4 victory. His three-run first-inning homer to left field off Sonny Gray — a monster shot estimated at 442 feet — broke Game 3 open, turning a 1–0 lead into a 4–0 lead before Astros starter Cristian Javier even threw a pitch; it was probably the turning point of the series. For good measure, Abreu capped the scoring in the 9–1 rout with a two-run homer into the upper deck in left center off Bailey Ober in the ninth inning, this one estimated at 440 feet. On Wednesday night, he struck again, clubbing a 424-foot opposite-field two-run homer off Caleb Thielbar in the fourth inning of a 1–1 game. The Astros didn’t score again but hung on for a series-clinching 3–2 victory. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m always a fan of a playoff series that we haven’t seen before, and oddly, the Astros and Rangers have never faced off in the postseason before. But we’ll finally get that battle for Texas supremacy this year in the ALCS, after the Astros shut down the Twins to win in four and the Rangers swept the Orioles and sent them back home for the peak of the steamed crab season. For this championship series, we also get a team without an obvious claim to superiority over the 2023 season, as both tied for the division at 90–72, leading to an unsatisfying Game 163-less conclusion based on head-to-head records.

Houston and Texas having never faced off in the postseason is one of those little accidents of history. The Senators/Rangers took until 1996 to make the playoffs for the very first time, and the Astros only moved to the AL before the 2013 season. Despite playing in the same league, the two franchises haven’t really had their periods of success overlap; 2023 is just the second season in baseball history in which the Astros and Rangers won 90 games in the same season, the only other time being in 1999 (when both teams lost in their respective divisional series). Read the rest of this entry »

As I’ve done for the past few years, I’m going to be grading each eliminated postseason manager on their decision-making. We spend the year mostly ignoring managers’ on-field contributions, because to be honest, they’re pretty small. Using the wrong reliever in the eighth inning just doesn’t feel that bad on June 22; there are so many more games still coming, and the regular season is more about managing the grind than getting every possible edge every day. The playoffs aren’t like that; with so few games to separate wheat from chaff, every last ounce of win probability matters, and managers make personnel decisions accordingly. What better time to grade them?

My goal is to evaluate each manager in terms of process, not results. If you bring in your best pitcher to face their best hitter in a huge spot, that’s a good decision regardless of outcome. Try a triple steal with the bases loaded only to have the other team make four throwing errors to score three runs? I’m probably going to call that a blunder even though it worked out. Managers do plenty of other things – getting team buy-in for new strategies and unconventional bullpen usage behind closed doors is a skill I find particularly valuable – but as I have no insight into how that’s accomplished or how each manager differs, I can’t exactly assign grades for it.

I’m also purposefully avoiding vague qualitative concerns like “trusting your veterans because they’ve been there before.” Playoff coverage lovingly focuses on clutch plays by proven performers, but Evan Carter and the entire Diamondbacks roster have been great too. Forget trusting your veterans – the playoffs are about trusting your best players. Bryce Harper is important because he’s a great player, not because of the number of playoff series he’s appeared in. There’s nothing inherently good about having been around a long time; when I’m evaluating decisions, “but he’s a veteran” just doesn’t enter my thought process. I’ve already covered the losing managers of the Wild Card round. Today, it’s Brandon Hyde’s turn. Read the rest of this entry »

PHILADELPHIA — You know what they say about first impressions, right? Well forget it. It’s nonsense.

The Phillies have run back last season’s NLDS result: a 3-1 victory over the rival Atlanta Braves, the no. 1 seed in the National League bracket. This time out was a little more acrimonious than the last, at times a little more touch-and-go, as a cavalcade of pitchers only barely kept the cap on the violently fizzing soda bottle that is Atlanta’s offense.

But with Braves ace Spencer Strider standing between the Phillies and a return to the NLCS, two players who were on the verge of being run out of town in the past 12 months — Nick Castellanos and Trea Turner — put the team on their backs. Read the rest of this entry »

You all know how playoff relief pitchers work these days. A starter comes out, perhaps earlier than he would in the regular season, and then the parade starts. A 23-year-old who throws 99 with a mind-bending slider. A former starter who pops 100 with ease. A crafty lefty is next, an embarrassment to his peers thanks to a mere 97-mph radar gun reading. Then it’s time for the big cheese, the bullpen anchor; he throws 100 as well, only with a secondary pitch that would get him convicted of witchcraft in an earlier era.

That’s just the way baseball has gone in recent years. Pitcher training is better than ever and velocity misses bats, so the trend is inexorable. In 2014, the average fastball thrown by a reliever in the playoffs checked in at 94.1 mph. In 2022, it hit 95.9 mph. In the not-so-distant future, it will surely top 96. If you can build the entire bullpen out of fireballers, why not do it?

It feels strange to call Ryan Pressly a junkballer. He sits 94-95 mph with a backspinning four-seamer. He threw a pitch 98 mph this season. He’s lived up near 100 at various points in his 11-year major league career. But in modern baseball, he’s downright quaint, a four-pitch reliever who doesn’t rely on gamebreaking velocity. Read the rest of this entry »