NEW YORK — As Francisco Lindor stepped in against Phillies reliever Carlos Estévez with the bases loaded, one out, and the Mets down a run in the sixth inning, the Citi Field fans were still singing his walk-up song:
When it’s cold outside, I’ve got the month of May.
The Mets shortstop called time, retreated, and regrouped. The singing continued.
I guess you’d say,
What can make me feel this way?
My girl, my girl, my girl
Talkin’ ‘bout my girl, my girl
They punctuated their sweet serenade with three letters, shouted repeatedly in succession. “M-V-P! M-V-P! M-V-P!”
Lindor returned to the batter’s box, tapped the outside edge of the plate, then the inside one. Now, he was ready to break the game open. Read the rest of this entry »
Who would you pitch in a pivotal Game 4? Let’s say, just for the sake of argument, that your best starter is available on three days’ rest, and he didn’t throw a full complement of pitches in his last start. He could pitch tonight’s game – or he could pitch a potential fifth and deciding game on full rest. But if resting him and letting him go in the next one seems like the obvious answer, let’s add another wrinkle: There’s no one else available to start. If your ace doesn’t go, it’s all bullpen, all the way.
The Padres and Dodgers both faced that decision Wednesday. They chose differently – the Padres sent Dylan Cease to the mound, while the Dodgers countered with reliever Ryan Brasier. The decision wasn’t exactly identical, but it was nearly so. The Dodgers used three relievers in Game 3, while the Padres used four. The relievers San Diego used were better – but then, their bullpen is better overall. Both teams had good full-rest options for Game 5 even if they opted to use their aces on Wednesday, with Yu Darvish set to take the ball for the Padres and Jack Flaherty available to do so for the Dodgers if Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitched Game 4 on short rest. (Dave Robertssaid after the game that he has not yet settled on a Game 5 starter, with everything from Yamamoto, Flaherty and another bullpen game on the table depending on how everyone is feeling after Thursday’s workout.)
Cease came out with what seemed like the kind of adrenaline you’d expect from a guy trying to knock the Dodgers out of the playoffs. His first fastball to Shohei Ohtani was 99.6 mph. The slowest fastball he threw in the first inning was 97.5 mph, half a tick faster than his average fastball this year. His slider had more hop. His sweeper had more sweep. Oh yeah – he also hung a fastball middle-middle that Mookie Betts launched for a solo home run. Read the rest of this entry »
Do you have a favorite flavor of baseball? Maybe you enjoy a crisp, clean pitching duel, or maybe you prefer the luxurious mouthfeel of a decadent slugfest. But if what your tastebuds really crave is yelling – the sharp, mouth-puckering tartness of unbridled emotion and constant, heartfelt screaming audible through the on-field microphones – then Game 3 of the National League Divisional Series between the Dodgers and Padres was the contest for you. The San Diego fans screamed pretty much all game long and the players screamed whenever anything big happened, which is to say often.
With the series tied at one coming into the game, drama was the watchword of the day. The Padres had roasted the Dodgers, 10-2, in Game 2 on Sunday. The fans threw things at the San Diego players. Manny Machado threw a ball into the Los Angeles dugout. Dave Roberts asked the league office to investigate the throw, which, he said, was directed at him with “something behind it.” When Zapruder-esque video of the toss surfaced online, that something was revealed to be petulant but ultimately harmless. Tensions were high enough that before the game, the Padres released a statement reminding their fans that throwing things at the Dodgers is frowned upon. So rather than throw, the fans just screamed. For hours.
The game featured plenty of action, all of it stuffed into the span of one inning. The teams combined for 10 runs in the bottom of the second and the top of the third, and then, when it looked like the onslaught might never stop, the bats went cold and the game turned into a one-run nailbiter headlined by unhittable bullpens. If you had Walker Buehler surrendering six runs on your bingo card, congratulations on having a bingo card full of extremely probable outcomes. If you had him getting through five innings, then you lucked out. But if you somehow had both of those outcomes, you should probably upgrade from bingo to the Mega Millions, because fortune is smiling upon you. Meanwhile, the Padres started Michael King, who ran a 2.95 ERA this season and threw seven scoreless innings in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. What looked for all the world like the world’s most lopsided pitching matchup ended up as very nearly a draw.
In the end, the Padres pulled out a 6-5 victory, and they now have a chance to end the Dodgers’ season on Wednesday night. If they do, it will mark the third straight time that the Dodgers have won the division but failed to make it to the League Championship Series. Read the rest of this entry »
Riley Greene has never seen the ball like this before. You never know how someone will react to their first postseason experience – players have been known to press or freeze up – but Greene has done no such thing. He’s chasing pitches outside the strike zone about as frequently as he did in the regular season. Meanwhile, he’s locked in when pitchers challenge him. He’s swinging at 85% of pitches in the strike zone, up from about 66% during the regular season. And when he gets one right down the middle, he’s going for it: He’s taken 13 swings at 15 such pitches, also an 85% swing rate, up from 73% before October.
Just one problem: Greene is hitting .133/.278/.200 in the playoffs. He’s walking at about the same clip, and his strikeouts are barely down. Meanwhile, his power has completely disappeared. He has one extra-base hit, a double. He hasn’t barreled up a single ball. His bat speed is down two ticks from the regular season, and down nearly 2.5 mph from his second-half mark. He’s making more weak contact and less hard contact. These things don’t quite make sense together. Are we looking at a fluke of batted ball luck or a trend?
Now, let’s be honest with ourselves. It’s probably at least partly a fluke of batted ball luck. We’re talking about four games here, 18 plate appearances. You’re not supposed to read too much into samples that small, and if you do, you should focus on the most stable indicators you can find. On-base percentage? Slugging? Heck, strikeout rate? We haven’t seen nearly enough to take those at face value. But I do think something’s wrong, so I thought I’d dig a little deeper. Read the rest of this entry »
Mets fans have their narrative: Sean Manaea was remarkable in Game 3 of the NLDS, keeping the Phillies in check over seven-plus innings and leading his club to a resounding 7-2 victory. Phillies fans have their narrative, too: The NL East champs played uncompetitive baseball all evening, pushing them to the brink of elimination. The former narrative gives the Mets all the agency (they won because they played well!), while second gives the Phillies all the blame (they lost because they played so poorly!), but that doesn’t mean they both can’t be true. The Mets were firing on all cylinders in Game 3, and the Phillies didn’t do much to stop them.
Entering play on Tuesday, all four Division Series were tied up 1-1. That effectively turned each series into a three-game set – and a three-game set in which the lower seeds held home-field advantage. It’s no secret the Phillies love playing at Citizens Bank Park; their 54-27 (.667) record at home this season was the best in baseball, while their 41-40 (.506) record on the road was tied for 13th. However, the Phillies still had an ace up their sleeve as they packed their bags and left for Queens. They only had to win one game at Citi Field and they could come back home to another Zack Wheeler start at the Bank. That’s a big reason why they came into tonight’s game with a 61% chance to advance to the NLCS, as well as the highest World Series odds among the eight remaining teams. Read the rest of this entry »
The Kansas City Royals have a great starting rotation, a bullpen that’s come together nicely over the past few weeks, and a lot of team speed. The offense? Eh, it’s not great. Let’s not underestimate the impact of Bobby Witt Jr., who was the best normal-sized player in the American League this year, and should count as two All-Stars. They’ve got a couple big dudes to drive in Witt, but Salvador Perez is 34 going on 50, and Vinnie Pasquantino is working with a barely healed right thumb. That’s no small issue — the thumb is what separates us from the apes.
I was going to break out the old cliché about bringing a knife to a gunfight, but there have been times when manager Matt Quatraro was probably looking around and thinking, “You know what, I would settle for some cutlery right about now.”
Every pitcher starts an at-bat with a plan of some sort. Usually, they execute the plan. But sometimes the plan goes awry. And the plan definitely went awry when Emmanuel Clase faced Kerry Carpenter in the ninth inning of Game 2 of the Tigers-Guardians ALDS.
On the sixth pitch of the plate appearance, Carpenter uncorked a massive blast off Clase to give the Tigers a late 3-0 lead. A half-inning later, and Detroit had the series tied up at one game apiece. It was the hardest hit ball that Clase had ever given up. It was the first home run this season he’d allowed to a lefty. He allowed five earned runs the entire regular season; on that chuck alone, he gave up three. Read the rest of this entry »
NEW YORK — Carlos Rodón was dealing… until he wasn’t. Fired up for his first postseason start as a Yankee, with a sellout crowd of 48,034 cheering him on, the 31-year-old lefty avoided the early pitfalls that had characterized his uneven season by turning in two very strong innings, including a 12-pitch, three-strikeout first. But after the Royals showed they could produce hard contact against him in the third, they chased him from the game with a four-run fourth, starting with a solo shot by his old nemesis, Salvador Perez, and then a trio of hits. While Rodón’s opposite number, Cole Ragans, only lasted four innings himself, the Royals bullpen stymied the Yankees, who collected just two hits across a four-inning stretch before showing signs of life again in the ninth. Their rally died out, and the Royals pulled off a 4-2 win in Monday night’s Game 2, sending the best-of-five series back to Kansas City with the two teams even at one win apiece.
After making just 14 starts in an injury-plagued 2023 season — his first under a six-year, $162 million deal, Rodón took the ball for a full complement of 32 starts, a career first — and threw a staff-high 175 innings, albeit with a 3.95 ERA and 4.39 FIP. While he ranked sixth in the AL in strikeout rate (26.5%) and ninth in K-BB% (18.8%), he was one of the most gopher-prone starters in the league, serving up 1.59 homers per nine, third highest among qualifiers. What particularly tripped up Rodón was a pronounced tendency to struggle early. He posted a 5.63 ERA and 4.92 FIP in the first and second innings while allowing 14 homers in those 64 frames, compared to a 3.00 ERA and 4.09 FIP thereafter.
On Monday he looked untouchable in the first. He caught Maikel Garcia looking at a 95.7-mph four-seamer in the lower third, whiffed Bobby Witt Jr. chasing the high cheese, and got Vinnie Pasquantino to fan chasing an outside slider in the dirt. His only blemish in the second inning was a two-out single by Michael Massey, which he negated by punching out Tommy Pham chasing a low-and-away changeup. Through two innings, he’d thrown 20 pitches, 18 for strikes, with four whiffs. Read the rest of this entry »
After the Detroit Tigers beat the Houston Astros in the opener of their Wild Card series, I wrote that while Tarik Skubal wasn’t perfect, he was very good, and that was enough to lead his team to a 3-1 win. The same was true in Game 2 of the ALDS, although this time he wasn’t the biggest story. On an afternoon where the ace left-hander hurled seven scoreless innings, Kerry Carpenter came off the bench and hit the biggest home run of his life against a lights-out closer. When the dust had settled, the Tigers had evened their series against the Cleveland Guardians at one game apiece with a 3-0 win.
The matchup between Skubal and Matthew Boyd offered both a contrast in styles and, at least on paper, a mismatch. After undergoing Tommy John surgery last year, the 33-year-old Boyd wasn’t offered a major league contract during the offseason, and he remained unsigned until June, when he signed a one-year deal with Cleveland for an undisclosed salary. He appeared in only eight big league games during the regular season. As it turned out, Boyd ended up matching this season’s likely American League Cy Young winner pitch-for-pitch for four-plus innings before the Guardians turned to what has been baseball’s best bullpen this season.
The early frames accentuated the contrast in styles. Through three innings, Boyd relied heavily on soft stuff, throwing more changeups than fastballs, while Skubal relied primarily on high-90s heaters, mostly leaving his own plus changeup in his back pocket. Hitters on both sides were left floundering. By the time the Guardians batted in the bottom of the fifth, the Tigers had the game’s only four hits, and one of them was of the infield-dribbler variety. Read the rest of this entry »
The playoffs were absolutely wild this weekend. Out of the six games played Saturday and Sunday, two were all-time classics. First, the Yankees and Royals traded blows before Alex Verdugo produced a game-winning single after a controversial stolen base call. Then the Phillies and Mets traded home runs and blown leads right up until the last play of the game, Nick Castellanos’s walk-off hit.
If you wanted to, you could read our gamestories for these games, or any number of other finepiecesabout them across the internet. You could watch highlights or condensed recaps. But this is FanGraphs, so I thought I’d cover another angle: where these games fit in the history of wild playoff games.
We have win probability charts going back to 2002, which means we have data on total win probability changes going back to that year as well. If you take the absolute value of these and sum them up, you can see exactly how much each team’s fortunes changed throughout the contest. The more total win probability changes, the wilder things are. For example, the least exciting game by this measure occurred on October 9, 2019. The Cardinals beat the Braves 13-1 in the NLDS, and they opened things up by scoring 10 in the first inning. No drama, and thus very few changes in win probability. A 2023 contest between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers (11-2 Arizona, 9-0 after two innings) is the runner up. Read the rest of this entry »
