In a race for a playoff spot, every edge matters. Yet all too often, for reasons that extend beyond a player’s statistics, managers and general managers fail to make the moves that could improve their teams, allowing subpar production to fester at the risk of smothering a club’s postseason hopes. In Baseball Prospectus’ 2007 book It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, I compiled a historical All-Star squad of ignominy, identifying players at each position whose performances had dragged their teams down in tight races: the Replacement-Level Killers. I’ve revisited the concept numerous times at multiple outlets and have adapted it at FanGraphs in an expanded format since 2018.

When it comes to defining replacement level play, we needn’t hew too closely to exactitude. Any team that’s gotten less than 0.6 WAR from a position to this point — prorating to 1.0 over a full season — is considered fair game. Sometimes, acceptable or even above-average defense (which may depend upon which metric one uses) coupled with total ineptitude on offense is enough to flag a team. Sometimes a club may be well ahead of replacement level but has lost a key contributor to injury; sometimes the reverse is true, but the team hasn’t yet climbed above that first-cut threshold. As with Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s definition of hardcore pornography, I know replacement level when I see it. Read the rest of this entry »

The Rangers haven’t played in the postseason since 2016 (and haven’t even finished above .500 since then), but they’ve been atop the AL West for almost the entire season and are now 49–31, with a six-game lead over both the Angels and Astros. They own the majors’ largest run differential (+160) as well as its most potent offense (5.98 runs per game), and thanks to a revamped pitching staff, they’re third in run prevention as well (3.98 per game).

An underrated part of that run prevention is the team’s defense. By my evaluation of a handful of the major defensive metrics — Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating, our catcher framing metric (hereafter abbreviated as FRM, as it is on our stat pages), and Statcast’s Runs Prevented (which I’ll call Runs Above Average because their site and ours use the abbreviation RAA) and catching metrics for framing, blocking, and throwing (which I’ll combine into the abbreviation CRAA) — the Rangers rate as the majors’ second-best defensive team thus far this season. The Brewers, who are in the midst of a dogfight for first place in the NL Central, are the only team ahead of them.

I’ll explain the methodology behind this conclusion below, but first a bit more about the Rangers. With Jacob deGrom sidelined after just six starts due to a UCL tear that resulted in Tommy John surgery, the team’s pitching staff has the 13th-lowest strikeout rate in the majors (22.2%), but it also has the third-lowest BABIP (.274), in large part thanks to the team’s fielders (the pitchers haven’t been especially good at preventing hard contact). Second baseman Marcus Semien is the only past Gold Glove winner of the bunch, but he’s one of five Rangers defenders with at least 5 DRS thus far, along with first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, outfielder Travis Jankowski, right fielder Adolis García, and catcher Jonah Heim. Lowe, Semien, and center fielder Leody Taveras all have at least 4 RAA, and Heim is 3.7 runs above average in FRAM and +6 in CRAA.

Not all of the metrics are as favorable for the aforementioned players, but it’s worth noting that of the 10 Rangers with the most defensive innings played at a single position, the only negative run ratings are those of shortstop Corey Seager and left fielder Robbie Grossman (both -2 RAA) and Lowe (-2.6 UZR); every other Ranger with at least 161.1 innings at a position rates as average or better. To be fair, 161.1 innings is still a small sample, and for that matter, even the 697.1 innings of Semien at second is less than ideal for a full evaluation, though we can feel better that his DRS, UZR and RAA don’t wildly contradict each other. Particularly at this stage of the season, with teams having played 78–83 games, it’s better to bear in mind the range of values reflected in an individual’s fielding metrics rather than focusing on a single one. To return to Semien: his 6 DRS and 5 RAA are contrasted by his 0.8 UZR; it’s not a matter of which one is “right” so much as it is understanding that he shows up somewhere along the spectrum from slightly above average to solidly above average.

Given all of this alphabet soup dished out in small servings, I set out to look at team defense by aggregating the aforementioned metrics, which reflect differing methodologies and produce varying spreads in runs from top to bottom that owe something to what they don’t measure as well as how much regression is built into their systems. Pitchers don’t have UZRs or RAAs, for example, and the catching numbers are set off in their own categories rather than included in UZR and RAA. I’ve accounted for the varying spreads, which range from 86 runs in DRS (from 42 to -44) to 25.6 runs in FRM (from 13.8 to -11.8), by using standard deviation scores (z-scores), which measure how many standard deviations each team is from the league average in each category. I don’t proclaim this to be a bulletproof methodology so much as a good point of entry into a broad topic. The Rangers, who entered Wednesday (the cutoff for all of the data below) tied with the Blue Jays for the major league lead with 42 DRS, score 1.86 in that category but “only” 1.37 in UZR and 1.13 in RAA (13.4 runs in the former, 10 in the latter, both fourth in the majors), and so on. Read the rest of this entry »

Around this time a year ago, Julio Teheran left the Atlantic League’s Staten Island FerryHawks for the Mexican League’s Toros de Tijuana, a move that on the FerryHawks Instagram account described as the right-hander getting “one step closer back to Major League Baseball.” Those steps were many: over the next 12 months, Teheran would suit up for Staten Island, Tijuana, Sultanes de Monterrey in the Mexican League, Toros del Este in the Dominican Winter League, the San Diego Padres as a non-roster spring training invitee, Team Colombia in the World Baseball Classic, and the Padres’ Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas. Seven teams (from four different countries) later, he got his MLB shot, signing in late May with a Brewers team that had already lost five starters — Brandon Woodruff, Aaron Ashby, Eric Lauer, Jason Alexander, and Wade Miley – to injuries. Milwaukee needed a healthy arm badly, and Teheran had been looking for just that kind of opportunity.

The Brewers couldn’t have expected much from Teheran, the way you can’t usually expect much from the most available pitcher on the day that you place a fifth starter on the injured list. He hadn’t thrown a major league pitch since April 2021 with the Tigers, when he allowed one run over five innings before hitting the IL with a shoulder strain the following week. Even his Triple-A stint in the spring had been a mixed bag in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

But Teheran has answered the call, allowing just four earned runs and averaging over six innings in his four starts for the Brewers, striking out 16 and walking just three with a 1.48 ERA, 3.52 FIP and 4.48 xFIP. Those final two stats suggest a few balls bouncing his way through these first four starts, and he’s not going to give up a single earned run each time out there. But the early returns are strong: opposing hitters have a .396 xSLG and .294 xwOBA against him, and both his barrel and hard-hit rates (on just 70 batted balls, mind you) are comfortably above league average. In his last start on Saturday, he fanned six A’s over 7.0 one-run innings, his longest big league outing in nearly four years. Read the rest of this entry »

Will Benson was 19 years old and playing in the Midwest League when he led Sunday Notes on May 13, 2018. Two years removed from being drafted 14th overall by Cleveland out of Atlanta’s Westminster High School, he was both promising and raw. His batting average was hovering around the Mendoza line, but his OBP was a healthy .376, and his seven home runs were tied for tops in the circuit.

In many ways, he’s much the same player now. Acquired by the Cincinnati Reds from the Guardians this past February, the 6-foot-5, 230-pound outfielder had a strong 2022 campaign with Triple-A Columbus — 17 bombs and a .948 OPS — but he’s otherwise been a work-in-progress since entering pro ball. His career slash line in the minors is .221/.353/.441, and over 122 big-league plate appearances — he debuted last August — that line is a paltry .187/.256/.243. Contact has been an issue. In back-to-back seasons on the farm, Benson fanned 152 and 151 times. His K-rate in the majors is 32.2%.

But the potential is still there, as evidenced by a pair of performances over the past two weeks. On May 30, Benson had three hits, including a triple, in Cincinnati’s 9-8 win over the Red Sox at Fenway Park. Just four days ago, he walked off the Los Angeles Dodgers with his first big-league home run. Moreover, his athleticism remains elite.

I asked Benson about the road he’s traveled since our 2018 conversation following his three-hit game in Boston.

“It’s been rocky, but with a lot of growth,” Benson told me. “There have been good times, there have been bad times, and through it all there has been so much growth and change for me as a young man. I was 19 then, and now I’m 24 with a family; I have a baby boy that was born in March. There has been growth within the game, as well.”

Like all prospects, Benson had his development path hindered by the pandemic. With the minor-league season cancelled, he had to settle for a short stint in the independent Constellation Energy League, an experience that turned out to be anything but rosy. He had just eight hits in 56 at-bats, and fanned 27 times.

“In terms of playing and continuing with that flow, the whole rhythm of things, it was definitely tough,” Benson said of the 2020 summer. “But I did get to play in Sugar Land, and that was dope. It kind of opened my eyes to ‘I’ve got work to do.’ I felt kind of sad to go into that league and not do very well. But I worked, and I continued to learn.”

A mixed-bag season followed — 17 homers and 146 strikeouts — but then came a career-best 2022. In 401 Triple-A plate appearances, the youngster matched his 2021 home run total while fanning just 91 times. Moreover, his slash line was a stand-up-and-take-notice .279/.426/.522, and he stole 16 bases in 20 attempts. Among those taking notice were the Cincinnati Reds.

“They had been following me ever since I got drafted, and I guess they liked the progress I’ve been making,” Benson said of the trade. “When I played against them in Triple-A last year, I tore them up pretty good. I think it was a combination of that, and them liking my ability on the diamond. I understand that maybe I won’t be a guy who hits .300, but I can be a guy who gets on base close to 40% of the time, steal bases, and hit the ball hard. I can impact the game.”

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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS

Curtis Pride went 7 for 11 against Kevin Tapani.

Mookie Betts went 7 for 11 aa against Danny Duffy.

Steve Bowling went 3 for 7 against Glenn Abbott.

Mark Carreon went 10 for 18 against John Burkett.

Glenn Burke went 4 for 6 against Steve Carlton.

Johnny Giavotella went 5 for 7 against Anthony Bass.

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Corey Rosier would like to play in Boston this season. Whether that happens remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: He’ll add athleticism and a discerning eye to the Red Sox roster if and when he arrives. Acquired from San Diego last summer as part of the Eric Hosmer deal, the 23-year-old, left-handed-hitting outfielder has been described by our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen as “a 70 runner with a good idea of the strike zone.” His numbers this season have been promising. In 155 plate appearances with the Double-A Portland Sea Dogs, Rosier has a .305/.364/.433 slash line, a 122 wRC+, and he’s swiped 24 bases in 27 attempts.

He credits offseason speed training at Tampa’s House of Athlete for improving what were already impressive wheels.

“The program I go through has helped make my first step even better, and to get to my top speed quicker,” explained Rosier, who ran a 6.4 60 at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro. “Yo Murphy is who put it together. His primary sport is football — he played in the NFL for a little bit — but they’ve branched out to other sports and do a really good baseball program.”

Rosier wasn’t big into football growing up. Rather, he was “a baseball/basketball guy” who was primarily a shooting guard on the hardwood. Defense was one of his strong suits. The 5-foot-10, 190-pound Waldorf, Maryland native would often guard the other team’s best player.

His ability to handle high-level pitching will go a long way toward determining his future on the diamond, and he took a big step in that direction this past winter. Rosier was introduced to a hitting coach named Oswaldo “Ovy” Rodriguez Diaz, who helped him clean up his bat path and strengthen his top hand. The latter part of that equation was paramount.

“Being a right-handed thrower and a left-handed hitter, my bottom hand is naturally more dominant,” Rosier explained. “What was happening is that my swing was getting in and out of the zone — not having a strong top hand was kind of making me get snap-hooky — versus keeping the path through to centerfield. I really focused on strengthening that, and it’s definitely helped.”

The possibility that he could potentially help the Red Sox as soon as this season came up when I asked the confident youngster if he had any final thoughts before preparing that night’s game.

“You haven’t asked me when I’ll be a big-leaguer,’ responded Rosier, who next to Triple-A infielder David Hamilton ranks as the fastest player in the Red Sox system. “I think that could be by the end of this year. With the way I run the bases and play defense, if the Sox make a playoff push, I could be a guy who comes up and helps them win by doing the same things I’m doing here. It’s coming a lot sooner than people know.”

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A quiz:

Ty Cobb has the most singles, doubles, and triples in Detroit Tigers history. Who is the franchise leader for home runs?

The answer can be found below.

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NEWS NOTES

Bobby Bolin, who pitched for three teams — the San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers, and Boston Red Sox — from 1961-1973, died earlier this month at age 84. The right-hander from Hickory Grove, South Carolina appeared in 495 games and went 88-75 with 51 saves and a 3.40 ERA.

Jack Baldschun, who pitched for the three teams — the Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres — from 1961-1970, died earlier this week at age 83. The Greenville, Ohio and Miami University product had a three-year-stretch with the Phillies where he logged 29 relief wins, 50 saves, and a 2.79 ERA.

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The answer to the quiz is Al Kaline, with 399 home runs. Norm Cash is second, with 373. Miguel Cabrera is third, with 369.

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The Milwaukee Brewers made a shrewd move when they acquired Owen Miller from the Cleveland Guardians last December in exchange for cash (thanks to The Athletic’s Zack Meisel for confirming that it was a cash transaction with no PTBNL involved). In 174 plate appearances with his new team, the 26-year-old infielder is slashing .313/.351/.448 with four home runs and a 120 wRC+. Moreover, he’s added versatility to the lineup by playing five defensive positions. Featured here at FanGraphs as part of my “Talks Hitting” series last December, the Mequon native is the 12th Wisconsin-born player in Brewers history.

On a related note, the current iteration of the Milwaukee Brewers was established in April 1970 when the Seattle Pilots relocated to Wisconsin’s largest city on short notice, this after the Pilots went into into bankruptcy a week before Opening Day. The moniker preceded the move at the major-league level. In 1884, the Milwaukee Brewers played in the Union Association, an American Association team went by that name in 1891, and when the American League was established in 1901, the Brewers were an inaugural member. The last of those franchises is now in Maryland, the Brewers having become the St. Louis Browns in 1902, and subsequently the Baltimore Orioles in 1954.

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FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Gosuke Katoh hit safely in his first 10 games with NPB’s Nippon-Ham Fighters and is 19-for-51 with four home runs through his first 13. The 28-year-old Mountain View, California native played in eight games for the Toronto Blue Jays last season.

Liván Moinelo is 2-0 with three saves and a 0.87 ERA with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. The 27-year-old Cuban-born southpaw has 28 strikeouts and nine hits allowed in 20-and-two-thirds innings. One year ago, he had a 1.03 ERA, 24 saves, and 87 strikeouts in 52-and-two-thirds innings.

Seunghwan Oh recorded his 500th professional save when the KBO’s Samsung Lions beat the NC Dinos 9-6 earlier this week. The 40-year-old right-hander has since added one more and now has 379 saves in the KBO, 80 in NPB, and 42 in MLB. All but three of his stateside saves came with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2016-2017.

Hye Seong Kim is slashing .313/.379/.427 with 13 doubles and three home runs for the KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes. The 24-year-old second baseman has 14 steals in as many attempts.

Peter O’Brien is slashing .393/.454/.793 with a circuit-best 13 home runs for the Mexican League’s Pericos de Puebla. The 32-year-old outfielder played for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2015-2016 and the Miami Marlins in 2018-2019.

Fernando Rodney is 2-1 with five saves and a 7.56 ERA over 17 Mexican League relief appearances. The 46-year-old veteran of 17 MLB seasons has seen action with both Leones de Yucatan and Diablos Rojos del Mexico.

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Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were minor-league teammates in the Minnesota Twins system before being traded to the Cincinnati Reds last August in exchange for Tyler Mahle. Steer — featured in my “Talks Hitting” series earlier this month — is enjoying a stellar rookie season, while Encarnacion-Strand, a 2021 fourth-round draft pick out of Oklahoma State University, is knocking loudly on the big-league door. According to Steer, the erstwhile Cowboy doesn’t lack for confidence.

“It was Strand’s first spring training,” recalled Steer. “Some of us were talking in the dugout before an inter-squad game, and he said that he wanted to hit .300 with 30 home runs that year. We were like, ‘What?” Like, no one does that. One of us said, “That’s your expectation?” He said, “Yeah.” Sure enough, he goes ahead and hits 30, and hits over .300.”

Encarnacion-Strand’s exact totals in 2022 — this across 330 plate appearances in High-A and 208 in Double-A — were 32 home runs and a .304 batting average. Based on what he’s doing this year, those numbers weren’t a fluke. Over 194 plate appearances with Triple-A Louisville, he’s slashing a lusty .356/.418/.718 with 16 home runs and a 176 wRC+.

“He’s pretty confident,” said Steer. “He’s also pretty good.”

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FARM NOTES

DJ Peters is getting an opportunity on the mound. The 27-year-old former Los Angeles Dodgers and Texas Rangers outfielder pitched two scoreless innings for the Detroit Tigers Florida Complex League entry earlier this week.

Noah Mendlinger is slashing .306/.427/.471 with four home runs in 151 plate appearances between High-A Peoria and Double-A Springfield. The 22-year-old infielder was signed as a non-drafted free agent by the St. Louis Cardinals out of Georgia College & State University in 2021.

Aaron Schunk is slashing .341/.385/.625 with 10 home runs in 192 plate appearances for the Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes. Drafted by the Colorado Rockies out of the University of Georgia in 2019, the 25-year-old infielder was first featured here at FanGraphs in June 2020.

Emmet Sheehan is 4-1 with a 1.86 ERA and 88 strikeouts in 53-and-a-third innings for the Double-A Tulsa Drillers. Currently No. 17 our Los Angeles Dodgers Top Prospect list, the 23-year-old right-hander was featured here at FanGraphs last August.

Al Alburquerque is 1-0 with three saves and a 1.29 ERA over 19 relief outings for the independent Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks. The 38-year-old right-hander — a veteran of 264 big-league games over seven seasons, including five with the Detroit Tigers — last pitched affiliated ball in 2018.

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Which is better, baseball on TV or baseball on the radio? I asked that question in a Twitter poll a few days ago, and the results favored eyeballs over ears. TV received 56.7 of the votes, while radio garnered 43.3%.

Regardless of the medium, the quality of the people behind the microphones matters. In my opinion, it matters a lot. I do my best to tune in to a wide variety of games, even for just an inning or two — keeping abreast of what’s happening across the two leagues is part of my job — and it’s safe to say that not all play-by-play announcers and analysts are created equal. Whether I opt for TV or radio, or for home or away, the respective voices of the game strongly influence my choice.

As one commenter on the poll put it, “It depends upon the broadcasters.”

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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE

Emma Tiedemann and Rylee Pay — the second all-female booth in professional baseball history — are finding chemistry as Double-A Portland’s broadcast team. Jen McCaffrey wrote about them for The Athletic (subscription required).

KCUR Kansas City’s Greg Echlin reported on how the Royals-owned Urban Youth Academy, in the opinion of some members of the city’s African-American community, has strayed from its original goals.

At Forbes, John Perrotto wrote about how Oakland Athletics manager Mark Kotsay is staying positive during a horrid season.

Sports Illustrated’s Stephanie Apstein wrote about how MLB has the power to keep the A’s in the Bay Area.

Jonathan Mayo did a mock draft at MLB.com.

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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS

The Cleveland Guardians have lost 17 games by one run, the most in the majors.

Andrew McCutchen has 1,999 hits, 399 doubles, 295 home runs, a 129 wRC+, and 51.9 WAR. Hall of Famer Tony Oliva had 1,917 hits, 329 doubles, 220 home runs, a 129 wRC+, and 40.7 WAR.

Kansas City Royals right-hander Jordan Lyles is 0-10 with a 6.84 ERA and a .239 BABIP-against. His 18 home runs allowed are the most in the majors.

Patrick Wisdom has struck out 77 times in 202 plate appearances. Luis Arraez has struck out 12 times in 248 plate appearances.

Juan Gonzalez had 157 RBIs and 46 walks in 1998. Ted Williams had 159 RBIs and 162 walks in 1949.

Henry Aaron and Willie Mays each had 648 home runs on June 9, 1972. “Hammerin’ Hank” moved ahead of the “Say Hey Kid” on the all-time homer list — only Babe Ruth had more — the following day.

On today’s date in 1985, Von Hayes hit a solo home run and a grand slam as part of a nine-run first inning as the Philadelphia Phillies routed the New York Mets 26-7 at Veteran’s Stadium. The score was 16-0 after two innings.

On today’s date in 1979, Bob Stanley threw a complete-game four-hitter as the Boston Red Sox beat the Kansas City Royals 4-0 in 10 innings. The losing pitcher was Steve Busby, who allowed two hits in nine-and-a-third innings.

Players born on today’s date include Wheezer Dell, who went a combined 19-23 with a 2.55 ERA while pitching for the St. Louis Cardinals in 1912, and the Brooklyn Robbins from 1915-1917. The Tuscarora native was the first major-league player born in the state of Nevada.

Also born on today’s date was Pop Joy, a first baseman who played for the Union Association’s Washington Nationals in 1884. The Washington DC native had 28 hits — all singles — in 130 at-bats.

Rowdy Tellez has stopped swinging. Not entirely; he’s tied for ninth in the National League with 12 home runs and 20th with a .494 slugging percentage. But this year, the Brewers slugger has cut at just 35.3% of all pitches, the second-lowest rate in baseball after the famously choosy Juan Soto. It’s uncharacteristic of Tellez, representing an eight-point drop from last year and a 13.2-point drop from his 2021 campaign. The new approach has done wonders for his chase rate: his O-Swing%, which was 35.2% in 2021 and 31.0% in 2022, is now 33rd in the majors at 25.9%. And while he’s never been a terribly impatient hitter, cutting back on swings at bad pitches has meant a rising walk rate, which isn’t quite Soto-esque at 12.0% but is a marked improvement from his 7.1% rate two years ago. That alone will get you on base an extra 30 or so times over a full season.

Tellez started to change his approach last year, swinging at fewer and fewer pitches than he had through the first three-plus seasons of his career. For most of his time in Toronto, he offered at somewhere between 48% and 50% of pitches he saw, but right around the time he was dealt to Milwaukee in 2021, he got a fair bit more aggressive with pitches over the plate, cutting at 73.9% of strikes and just 34.5% of pitches outside the zone. Since then, the aggression at the plate has given way to radical levels of patience:

Now, stop me if you can guess what the problem with never swinging the bat is: he’s taking a lot more strikes. While everyone else in the league is swinging at a majority of the pitches they see in the zone, Tellez is offering at just 47.4%, nearly seven points lower than any of his contemporaries. If he keeps this up, he’ll be the first qualifier to swing at less than half of pitches in the zone since David Fletcher in 2019 and ’20. In the 22 seasons of our Z-Swing% data, his 47.4% rate would be second-lowest over a full season, beating only Brett Gardner’s 44.8% in 2010. Read the rest of this entry »

There is some fantastic coaching happening in Milwaukee. Over the last handful of years, there have been multiple instances of catchers completely turning their defense around with the Brewers, with Omar Narváez the most notable example. The team’s latest success story is William Contreras. In his first 146 games with Atlanta, Contreras was a solid player with an exceptional bat. In 376 plate appearances in 2022, he had a 138 wRC+. That is a great mark for any hitter, let alone a catcher. However, his defense was lackluster across the board. The skills were there — that didn’t seem to be a major concern — but Contreras’ performance was below average when it came to framing, blocking, and throwing. It seemed like his defense might be a slow burn, but Milwaukee had another plan in mind.

To get an idea of how incredible Contreras has been so far, we will start with the numbers. You might be shocked when you see them because this isn’t a story of a catcher going from below average to average. This is the story of a catcher going from below average to top tier:

Are you confused? I’m confused. When I first saw these numbers, my jaw dropped. Catcher is the most physically demanding and difficult position on the field. To suddenly become one of the best at the position in a matter of months is inconceivable to me. Typically, a player will see improvements in one area one year, another in the next, and so on and so forth. Contreras didn’t have a typical ascent though. Instead, he did all of this practically overnight. His framing has moved from the 20th percentile last year to the 74th percentile this year. In 2022, he wasn’t even in the top 50 of blocking runs saved, but he now leads all catchers. Yes, that’s a better rate than J.T. Realmuto or Sean Murphy have managed. Lastly, his throwing has been good this year as well. Despite no real improvement in terms of his pop time, his CS% jumped from 7% to 33%. That is most likely due to significantly improved accuracy and footwork. So what gives? How in the world is he pulling this off?

I’ll start with blocking. A rapid improvement here makes more sense to me than framing. I say that because blocking is all about preparation, both pre-game and pre-pitch. Pre-game, you have to do the necessary work to understand your staff’s pitch shapes and tendencies. If this becomes back of the hand knowledge to you, then blocking in game is that much easier. Pre-pitch, you use that knowledge to determine your setup and decision making. After watching every pitch that Statcast labeled as a block for Contreras both last year and this year, it’s become clear to me that the improvement is rooted in Contreras no longer attempting to block right-handed breaking balls and offspeed pitches with his chest. Here is some video from 2022 to start:

All three of these pitches are standard blocking attempts. There isn’t a 30 foot spiked pitch or one with wicked side-to-side spin. Technically, they are all executed blocks since the runner doesn’t advance and they didn’t scoot far enough away to be passed balls. However, each of these locations should be areas that a catcher stuffs right in front of them. Now, let’s see what Contreras does this year in the face of right-handed breaking ball and offspeed pitches:

This is unorthodox! When I think of the great pickers, names like Yadier Molina, Francisco Cervelli, and Joe Mauer come to mind. But the weird thing is, they didn’t all exclusively pick! Usually there is a time and place where you just have to get your body in front of the ball, but for Contreras, his hand is the best possible extension of his body he could have. On spiked curveballs or side-sweeping sliders far in front of the plate, he is picking the ball with ease.

There were signs this was a special skill for Contreras last year — he picked countless nasty sliders from Spencer Strider all season. But it’s quite unorthodox to tell a catcher to completely sell out for this approach. However, if you’re confident enough in the scouting that says he has 80-grade hands and readability, then heck, just go for it! The early returns are quite promising too. You may think this is luck, but these four examples are representative of a skill that Contreras has shown to be repeatable all season no matter the pitcher or pitch shape.

Now, let’s move on to the other key part of catching directly related to smooth, strong hands: framing. If you can recall from the table above, Contreras’ strike rate has increased by 4.1 percentage points since last year, and his framing runs have increased by 5. The best opportunity for a catcher to make a big jump in framing is the bottom of the zone, from the middle of their body and away from their glove hand – and that has indeed been the point of focus and improvement for the Brewers backstop. Statcast defines these two zones as Zone 18 (middle-low shadow zone) and Zone 19 (arm side-low shadow zone). In Zone 18, Contreras’ strike rate has jumped from 43.6% to 62.7% (third in baseball). In Zone 19, it’s jumped from 20.3% to 29.7% (ninth in baseball). That’s another huge increase that warrants some video work. Here are six videos of pitches in Zone 18 – the first three are from 2022 and the second three are from 2023:

2022

2023

This trend was much easier to pick up on than the picking! Right away you can see that Contreras has changed his pre-pitch hand position. In 2022, his hands were stabby at the bottom of the zone. One crucial part of framing fastballs at the bottom of the zone is having a loose wrist as the pitch is being released. That slight quarter turn he did before the pitch wasn’t enough for him to keep consistent looseness between his wrist and elbow. Even when he did attempt a quarter turn (as with Kyle Wright’s sinker), it was off tempo and he still ended up bringing up his glove to the middle of his body before the pitch arrived.

In 2023, he has bought into a soft quarter turn that allows him to stay under the ball through reception. If you can stay under every single pitch, you can better manipulate the presentation of the ball. Pushing up through a fastball is much smoother than stabbing it and picking your glove back up. The best way for you to do that consistently is by making sure your glove always starts under the height of the shadow zone. It’s a simple concept that doesn’t require the catcher to take on a complete overhaul. Cue the right motions and targets, and the catcher will begin to understand what that reception should feel like. Contreras clearly now has that understanding and ability to execute every pitch.

As far as throwing is concerned, it’s not surprising to see early success for Contreras just from a mental point of view. If you’re confident in your receiving and blocking, then your mind is in a better place to execute solid mechanics and make an accurate throw. But I do have to point out how the improvement in framing can directly impact this as well. With a smooth motion from the ground up, your hands are in a better position to perform consistent exchanges. Stabbing at the ball brings your momentum back towards the ground, whereas a fluid motion starting from the ground lets you maintain a fluid motion towards your ear. It is all connected!

This early success is amazing for both Contreras and the Brewers. Last year, their two primary catchers were Victor Caratini and Narváez. Both were sub-90 wRC+ hitters despite their great catching. That led to 2.3 combined WAR on the year. Through 33 games (29 at catcher), Contreras has already accumulated 1.1 WAR. If he stays on that track, it will be a significant upgrade for the team. It’s an exciting development for both the club and a young catcher who looked like he might be an offense-first player behind the dish. Kudos once again, Milwaukee.

The 2023 season represents a golden opportunity for the Brewers. Their long-time tormenters, the Cardinals, can’t get out of their own way. The Cubs aren’t quite ready for prime time yet. The Pirates are an awesome story, but they’re light on impact players; this feels more like a feel-good warmup for the future than their year to shine. But the Brewers have problems of their own: their vaunted starting pitching has let them down to start the year.

You might assume I’m talking about the shaky back of the rotation; after all, the Brewers have been built around Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta for years now. But Wade Miley is holding up his end of the bargain, and even Colin Rea and Eric Lauer have turned in mid-4s ERAs — hardly a disaster. Instead, the problems have come at the very top: Woodruff is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury, and Burnes simply doesn’t look like himself this year.

Over the past three seasons, Burnes had established himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball. He has outrageous strikeout stuff; his 33.4% strikeout rate over those three years was 0.1 percentage points off of the best mark in baseball for a qualified starter. He mastered his command in the past two seasons, turning in back-to-back years of excellent walk rates. He even added durability, topping 200 innings in 2022, the first time in his career he’d even exceeded 170.

What’s gone wrong this year? A little bit of everything, to be honest. He’s walking more batters. His strikeouts have gone missing in action. His velocity is down across the board, as are his swinging-strike and chase rates. He’s giving up more contact than ever before, and “ever before” encompasses the 2019 season, when he ran up an 8.82 ERA and 6.09 FIP and got sent to the bullpen. In sum, he’s pitched to a 3.86 ERA and 4.34 FIP this year, quite the letdown after his last three years produced a 2.62 ERA and 2.40 FIP. Read the rest of this entry »

Software Engineer, Baseball Systems

Description:
As part of Baseball Systems, the Software Engineer will collaborate with the Player Development team to assist in developing our athletes. This position requires strong software development skills and experience, as well as a demonstrated ability for independent thought and the willingness to work within a team framework.

Core duties for this role include, but are not limited to:

• Deliver highly dependable, easy to use software while being part of a fast-moving team.
• Design and develop new features to deliver key athletic performance measures for the Player Development department while collaborating with Data Engineering, Tech Operations and Research & Development.
• Collaborate with the Pitching, Hitting, and Defense coordinators on tools for evaluating player performance and delivering player feedback.

The ideal candidate will have:

• created web apps using HTML, CSS and Javascript frameworks
• experience developing APIs in C# or other similar languages
• worked with relational databases
• familiarity with Git version control software
• A love of sports
• Bachelor’s degree in Computer Science, Information Systems, or related field from four-year college or university; and up to 3 years related experience and/or training; or equivalent combination of education and experience. 

Our Team:

• Baseball Systems is the software backbone of Baseball Operations. We provide data and decision-making tools for analysts, coaches, and front office personnel to help win a World Series.
• Our department consists of a team of data engineers and a team of software engineers who work across all different aspects of Baseball Operations providing support and tools relevant to each group.
• We work directly with stakeholders in every department of Baseball Operations to ensure every project we work on drives value to the organization and helps us win more games on the field.
• We help drive technical innovation to find new ways to solve baseball problems

What will you do each day?

• Design and develop new features or maintain existing features in our internal web applications.
• Squash bugs quickly.
• Collaborate with Baseball Operations staff to plan new features and ensure requirements are met.
• Develop walk-throughs for non-technical users to familiarize them with new features.
• Watch baseball.

Our Pitch
You come here to make a difference. We are a purpose-led organization, focused on building an inclusive and engaging culture that fosters excellence, collaboration and ingenuity. We strive to be a model employer and cultivator of talent, empowering our teams to drive innovation through the inclusion of diverse thoughts, ideas and perspectives. We operate at the highest standard of excellence, investing in the development of our staff across all levels and embracing differences through a culture of respect and understanding.

We are proud to offer a highly competitive perks and benefits package including:

• Exceptional health and dental rates, and fully covered vision package
• 401(K) match and an additional annual contribution from the Club
• Unlimited vacation time
• Paid parental leave
• Collaborative recognition program and incentives
• Leadership development programming
• Online educational platform for personal and professional development
• Employee Resource Groups
• Paid time off for volunteering
• Year-round diversity, equity and inclusion training and development
• Brewers Home Game tickets, promotional giveaways and other discounts!

For more information about our Crew, other benefits and insight into our Club culture please visit our Careers Page.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Brewers announced on Sunday that pitcher Brandon Woodruff’s shoulder pain has been diagnosed as a mild subscapular strain, meaning a trip to the injured list was in order. But while the word “mild” appears, the result is anything but, as it’s almost certain that he will spend significantly more time on the IL than the minimum 15 days, and a trip to the 60-day IL may be in order.

Craig Counsell on Brandon Woodruff: pic.twitter.com/yg2ipI88pL

— Todd Rosiak (@Todd_Rosiak) April 15, 2023

The good news is that the team doesn’t believe, at this time, that surgery will be required. But in talking about the injury, Woodruff didn’t sound like a player who was particularly optimistic about a quick return.

“If this was something that happened midseason, All-Star break, right before or after that time, I would probably end up being done, to be honest, for the season.”

[…]

“I’m not going to rush this, I’m not going to come back too early just for the sake of coming back early,” Woodruff said. “That’s just not going to do anybody any good. I’m going to take my time, I’m going to listen to my body and trust the rehab process and just go through that, and hopefully come back at whatever point that is throughout the season and then try to finish up strong.”

The subscapularis is one of four muscles that make up the rotator cuff and is a stability muscle that is key to keeping the shoulder from being dislocated. It’s one of the muscles less likely to be injured, but the recovery time for pitchers has been significant. Corey Kluber missed three months in 2021, and Justin Dunn has been shut down since the start of spring training, though his case is complicated by the fact that his shoulder problems are more longstanding. In a small study of eight professional players in Japan with similar injuries, the five pitchers had a mean time of 81.5 days until return to play, with a significance variance among the players that wasn’t based on severity of the injury. Looking back at the players 21 months after their injury, none of the eight suffered a recurrent injury to the muscle. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re only a week into the regular season, which means it’s too early to do any serious analysis. Or, to spin things another way, it’s a perfect time to hurry up and write about something wild that’s happening before everyone regresses to the mean.

So let’s talk about Brian Anderson.

Anderson was the best hitter in baseball in the first week of the 2023 MLB regular season. Through Wednesday’s games, he led the league in wOBA and xwOBA, and was a close second to Adam Duvall in wRC+. Anderson probably won’t finish the season with a wRC+ over 300 — though if he does, I guarantee we’ll cover it — but he’s no Tuffy Rhodes. He was a very good player not too long ago, and this hot start might represent a return to form. Read the rest of this entry »