Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and welcome to another edition of my (mostly) weekly FanGraphs chat. I’m going to take a couple minutes to let the queue fill up; in the meantime, here’s yesterday’s piece on Tommy La Stella, who made me look smart by homering again just hours after its publication https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tommy-la-stella-is-doing-mike-trout-like-t…

Jay Jaffe: And here’s about 30 minutes of me discussing baseball on the Wharton Moneyball podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-wharton-moneyball-post-game-…

Big Joe Mufferaw: Do you think Jeter gets 100% like Mo?

Jay Jaffe: It *should* happen; lousy fielding metrics aside, there’s no defensible reason why a professional who has done his homework would neglect to include a player who ranks among the all-time top 10 in hits while playing a pivotal role on five championship teams and seven pennant winners, that while completing the feat of spending 20 years in the Big Apple spotlight without getting involved in any notable scandal.

Jay Jaffe: Will it happen? it’s entirely possible some asshole out there holds a grudge, and let’s face it, Jeter isn’t winning any friends in his current gig running the Marlins. But if I had to bet, I’d bet yes, he gets 100%

Big Joe Mufferaw: Can you explain to me why writers treat Steroid offenders differently? Like voters will hate Palmeiro and Sosa, but chose to completely ignore Ortiz’s failed test for example. Is it because of how they like the guy? His Career? I don’t understand

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL, running around a lot today after a five-day trip through the Carolinas and I’m flying to Chicago tomorrow to see Quinn Priester, so there’s lots of maintenance things to get done today

Paul: WHEN IS THE NEXT MOCK

Kiley McDaniel: Oh yes and in case you missed it, there was a new mock yesterday and we already have a solid half dozen more pieces of dope to go in the next one…which will be whenever we think is time for a new one

Kiley McDaniel: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0/

mark: What is the domino effect if Vaughn goes 1 to BAL?

Kiley McDaniel: Not completely sure, but my best guess would be:
1. BAL – Vaughn
2. KC – Rutschman
3. CHW – Abrams
4. MIA – Witt
5. DET – Greene
6. SD – Bleday

Meg Rowley: Hello, and welcome to the chat!

Meg Rowley: It is rainy in Seattle today, and I have some sad tunes on. Let’s see if a little chat can’t shift the mood.

Confused Dodger Fan: Struggling with the Julio Urias news. I want to be able to like the players who play for my favorite team.

Meg Rowley: Drat. It’s really a bummer. It is very hard for the continued existence of cases like this to not alter one’s appreciation for the sport in a meaningful way. Or at least, it is difficult for me. This stuff care ware you out.

Professor Hulk: Is all hope lost of Keuchel and Kimbrel playing this season?

Meg Rowley: I don’t think so.

Dan Szymborski: OK, I’m here!

Dan Szymborski: I’d like to say something out of my control happened, but I tend to start Twitter rants two minutes before I have to be somewhere

Matt: The chat post is messed up – showing the HTML code

Dan Szymborski: Should be fixed now.

Voldemort: Do you have confidence in Jesus Aguilar to turn things around this season? He’s looked sharper the last week or so.

Dan Szymborski: He’s certainly looked better. There’s still hope.

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy from lovely Tempe. Chat is starting early today so I can hit Extended at 10, so I’ll spare you the links (you know where to find stuff) and get to the Qs

Tommy N.: Chances of MacKenzie Gore making the big leagues this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pretty slim. The big club would have to be in some kind of race down to the wire (seems possible) and they’d have to think he were one of the best few options in the org AND the workload stuff needs to line up properly which, after the blister stuff last year, seems tricky

Greg: When’s the next mock out?

Eric A Longenhagen: when we have sufficient info to run one, probably sometime next week

Jon: Eric, hello! I’ll be in Lehigh Valley over the summer; any food recommendations?

Jay Jaffe: Hi folks, welcome to another edition of my weekly chat. I ducked out last week to see Noah Syndergaard have himself a day, and just got a piece about the Nationals’ annual dumpster fire off my plate, hence my tardiness. Give me a couple minutes to order some lunch and we’ll light this candle.

Jay Jaffe: OK, I’m back.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Can’t wait to read your piece about the Nationals. Spoil something for me…is the entire article about how Davey Martinez is out of his league?!

Jay Jaffe: While I eventually turn my attention to the recent firing of the pitching coach and the vultures circling Martinez, the gist of what I wrote is that their problems have been driven by a dreadful defensive performance; they’re either last in the NL or last in the majors in several advanced defensive metrics. Injuries — particularly to Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon — have been part of that, but the bullpen has been a festering sore for years. I think Mike Rizzo and Tigers-era Dave Dombrowski might actually be the same person when it comes to skimping on bullpen budgeting.

lunch: why is it that every year all the pundits pick the nationals to win the east, and then every year they just kind of…….flail about? Is there some explanation for why they seem so much better on paper than their actual performance?

Jay Jaffe: Via our Steamer and ZiPS projections  — which in general are pretty good as those things go — the Nats have been projected to win the NL East in each of the past two seasons, but injuries, some of them completely unforeseeable (Victor Robles’ elbow, Trea Turner’s finger) have had a major impact, and have exposed their lack of depth. At the same time, the bullpen woes are a repeated and foreseeable problem, which, when combined with the revolving door at manager, points to Rizzo as the culprit.

Kiley McDaniel: Was slightly delayed by some Scout shenanigans in the backyard, then I cornered a wasp and smothered it with a towel, then tough talked it like a real hero.

Kiley McDaniel: but also hello from ATL! heading out to check in on CJ Abrams playoff doubleheader later today, working out a mock draft and getting industry thoughts, but don’t want to spoil too many of the scoop-y nuggets we have

Kiley McDaniel: draft board was just expanded today to 350 players and it’s getting updated daily at this point: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?type=0&so…

Jorby: Scout’s take on the upcoming storms?

Kiley McDaniel: she feels it in her bones but also I’m going out of town this weekend for a crazy run of draft prospects so we haven’t covered it in much detail

Greg: When’s the next mock?

Meg Rowley: Hello all!

Meg Rowley: Welcome to the chat.

BEES: BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

bob:

Big League Choo: Which weighs more: 10 pounds of baseballs or 10 pounds of bees?

Meg Rowley: On my soul? The bees for sure. Much harder to dodge.