Meg Rowley: Hello and welcome to the chat!

Meg Rowley: Allow me a brief moment to retrieve my coffee from the microwave.

Meg Rowley: Shall be back shortly.

Meg Rowley: I have returned. Many thanks for your collective patience.

Chris: Have the odds the Padres land Harper gone up or down since your last chat?

Meg Rowley: I suppose down slightly, though I still think I think that he ends up in Philly. I still think I think that.

Dan Szymborski: The ancient prophecy that was foretold, about a chat coming at noon has now come to pass.

Chet: Can you explain the frank Thomas comp for Tyler white in your recent ZiPS projections?

Dan Szymborski: There are two Frank Thomases of note in history.

Dan Szymborski: One is FRANK THOMAS

Dan Szymborski: the other is Frank Thomas.

Dan Szymborski: rather than use all caps, for the purpose of ZiPS comps, Frank Thomas is Not That Frank Thomas

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Jeff Sullivan: I’m sorry about that extra long delay — had a podcast go slightly over

Bork: Hello, friend!

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

Bork: In which way will Melnyk drop the ball with Duchene & Stone?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey there, it is I. Today’s chat will be quick and I will need to update The Board if/when the Realmuto trade is official

Starbucks Nightmare: Is Morgan Cooper alive

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes but the Dodgers typically take things very slowly with the injured college pitching they’re constantly drafting.

John Stamos: Any words on Maximo Castillo in the upcoming Blue Jays list?

Eric A Longenhagen: a bunch of 50s, he’s in the Others section

Cave Dameron: How fast can you throw a baseball right now?

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL now that it’s warm and all the tourists are gone, things are looking up

Steve Sanders: When will the Blue Jays team prospect list come out?

Kiley McDaniel: This week for sure, rankings are locked now but we’re working on those reports and prospects week stuff side by side

Cave Dameron: If you had to convert any position-player prospect into a pitcher, who would it be and why?

Kiley McDaniel: You can see the top arms in the minors here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2018-in-season-prospect-…

Kiley McDaniel: I’d probably pick Robles or Pache b/c you want pure arm strength but also athleticism and body control

Meg Rowley: Hello, friends.

Meg Rowley: Welcome to the chat!

Meg Rowley: Very little is happening in baseball. In Seattle, it is quite cold (for Seattle).

Bo: How much longer do you think the Harper and Machado sweepstakes last? Who signs first?

Meg Rowley: I still think Machado goes first.

Meg Rowley: In terms of when, I wonder if we’ll see them before the end of the month at this point.

Dan Szymborski: ITS CHAT TIME

Dan Szymborski: BUT NOT ALL CAPITAL LETTERS TIME EXCEPT FOR ME

Dan Szymborski: <full-on corrupt>

LFC Mike: It is rumored that during the lightning roundtoday  Dan is going to go all Adam Levine on us.

Dan Szymborski: When you come to my chats, you get my industry leading NoNipple© Guarantee.

CamdenWarehouse: Does ZiPS give you a list of comp players and then you choose the one that is funniest, most painful for that fan base, etc. or are they all the closest comp?

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

San Diegan: Are the Padres signing Harper or Machado OR BOTH???

Jeff Sullivan: Not both!

Jeff Sullivan: Probably not one of them, either!

Jeff Sullivan: But their interest is legitimate. I assume they’re going to end up priced out, but Machado is such an obvious fit that they might as well remain involved

Eric A Longenhagen: Hello, it is I. I’m sure most of you know where the content is, so let’s get right to it.

randplaty: Is there a case for Tatis Jr over Vlad Jr? Or is that a non-starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, if you think Vlad moves to 1B/DH sooer than later and also have strong eval of Tatis at SS, I get it. I think Vlad stays at 3B for two years or so before he has to move.

randplaty: Any chance Luis Urias is a plus defender at second? He looked great defensively in his major league debut.

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, you could argue he’s fine at short, too.

GPT: Read your Giants instrux notes, great stuff. Anybody else stand out to you? Jairo Pomares, Jalen Miller, Yorlis Rodriguez?

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon from Brooklyn, where it’s a comparatively balmy 11 degrees (-4 with wind chill). The Hall of Fame circus has left town, but having missed last week’s post-announcement chat slot, I’ll still take questions on that topic, as well as hot stove stuff

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : Even though I am an obsessive baseball fan, i don’t know much about Hector Santiago. So I was surprised to see him #6 on the Mets starter depth chart in Szymborski’s ZIPS article on the Mets, ahead of Cory Oswalt. Is this just a projections thing, or has there been word that the Mets see him this way?

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t read much into it, honestly. Santiago has been a versatile and occasionally competent swingman over the years, while Oswalt was dreadful as a rookie last year. We’re talking about a projection for 38 innings versus one for 19 innings, and the likelihood is that there will be some jockeying in the spring, and perhaps another free agent added on a minor league deal who supersedes them both.

Guest: I tweeted you this already but:
Scott Rolen:
70.2/43.7/56.9/ 17 Yrs / 7 ASG / 122 OPS+

Biggio:
65.5/41.8/53.7/ 20 Yrs / 7 ASG / 112 OPS+

Thoughts?  Shouldn’t he be getting a lot more love from stat people?

Jay Jaffe: Rolen gets plenty of love from “stat people” — it’s the general BBWAA electorate that has been relatively reserved (17% included him this year), but that’s also a function of the clogged ballot, which will become considerably roomier over the next five years, as I wrote earlier this week (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/closing-the-floodgates-the-next-five-years…). I expect Rolen’s vote share to climb, especially as he’ll be the next guy in the Raines-Martinez-Walker lineage of players who get a push from the analytics community

yojiveself: Would you give Harper/Machado a 10 year contract?