Dan Szymborski: The appointed time for chatting has now arrived.
12:04
Mystery Chatter: What up playa. Need a late-round MI. How does Adames strike you?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: Needs to be a fairly deep lead
12:04
Mark: Can you name some quality pitching under control for 3ish years that might be trade candidates? Is Michael Fulmer the most valuable trade candidate in that type of grouping?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: There really aren’t a ton of guys like that, honestly
12:04
Dan Szymborski: Gausman was one but was traded last year
Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL where Scout is laying on her bed but you can tell she’s gonna pop up and ask to go outside as soon as the neighbor dogs start barking
Kiley McDaniel: Daniel Espino is the top prep arm right now but has his first real game this weekend. Buzz has been positive about progress with feel, but he’s also a shorter prep righty where velocity is still a big part of the package and the arm swing is really long. Doesn’t mean he won’t be really good, but teams are really wary of prep RHP and to take one that high, you need it all to line up. Add that with the recent track record of prep arms that sit 95+ not being very positive in terms of health/development and I can’t see him getting to top 5, maybe 8-10 if he really shoves all spring. Matt Allan is in the discussion right behind him, then there’s a pretty big dropoff.
12:25
Kiley McDaniel: Matt Manning went late top 10 and had a really good frame, top end athlete, two 65-70 grade pitches and even some teams wouldn’t take him up there.
Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy everyone, let’s dive right in so I can finish the A’s list after we’re done.
2:00
JD: I’m sure it’s different from position to position, but if you had to put an overall defensive grade on a player, how would you weigh their arm and field tools?
2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Arm is it’s own thing, though I’d like to break defense into multiple categories — hands, feet, range, maybe actions too if you consider those separate from hands. You could look at those categories and know which positions a player is athletically capable of playing and how well instead of getting confused by the way different tools impact others like…
2:02
Darren: Normally, speed guys are supposed to be good defenders. What keeps a guy like CJ Abrams at a 50 FV as a fielder?
2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: We have Abrams evaluated at SS right now but he has issues throwing from those weird athletic platforms that shortstops need to be able to throw from to be really good there. So he has elite range, his hands are fine, his windup/max effort arm strength is good, but he still may not be all that great at short because he can’t make these types of throws
2:05
Santa’s Reindeer: When’s your first mock draft coming out?
Jay Jaffe: Howdy, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat. I’ve almost survived a work week as the solo parent of a 2 1/2 year old monster (Emma’s at a Poynter Inst thing in Florida ’til Friday), but lemme tell ya, it’s nearly killed me. The PT has started for my shoulder, so that’s not killing me, and I’ve got a fresh piece on the not-so-fresh start Ian Desmond’s had in Colorado. https://t.co/sNXE7SKsdo
Anyway, on with the show…
12:02
Jon: Jay thoughts on a couple unheralded prospects?
12:05
Jay Jaffe: My thought is this: I’m not very qualified to herald the unheralded ones. You know what I’d like to see, though? Top 100 lists from the past, updated and re-ranked to account for what’s transpired since. I’m thinking of a 4x BA top 100 guy like the Rockies’ Ryan McMahon, who has like 200 MLB PA under his belt now and is technically not a prospect but is still young enough to become something other than what that small-sample line looks like.
12:06
Sam Miller: Are you the next podcast co-host?
12:07
Jay Jaffe: Hah, nobody has asked me to co-host a podcast. Unfortunately, i don’t even get much chance to consume ours (or any of the well-regarded ones), since I have no commute and can’t listen to people talk while I write, nor can Ben Lindbergh or Meg Rowley speak rhythmically enough for me to use their podcasts as gym listening.
12:09
Hakuna Machado: If Tatis Jr has a great ST, does he get a quick callup mid/late April or is he destined for a 2nd half callup?
Meg Rowley: Allow me to press “publish” on a post. A moment.
2:02
Meg Rowley: Ok, the moment has passed!
2:02
Meg Rowley: The button was pressed!
2:03
Meg Rowley: Let us chat.
2:03
Bread Gardner: Nobody seems to understand that the Yankees held off on signing Machado so they could sign Nolan Arenadohhhhhwaitasecondoops. (But seriously, did anyone actually buy that? And good for Nolan!)
Eric A Longenhagen: Hey everyone, looks like they’re gonna try to play this A’s/Mariners game so this may be a shorter chat, but after last week’s marathon I’m sure you’re all cool with that.
2:00
Trent: What would it take for the Cubs to get into the top half of MLB farm systems this year? A miracle?
2:01
Eric A Longenhagen: It probably means Roederer and Davis take huge steps forward, maybe one of the young pitching prospects, too. That’s a good start toward a climb.
2:01
Tommy N.: Where would Tatis and Machado rank in the best SS/3B combos in baseball?
2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Probably top 5 once Tatis is fully formed, right? Turner/Rendon, Ramirez/Lindor, Correa/Bregman, Arenado/Story…kinda run out of obvious ones in tthat area after that.
2:03
Twitter Handle: If you had to choose one of the Padres pitching prospects likely to turn into a 1/2; who would it be? Gore, Morejon, Paddack, Patino, other
Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, welcome to today’s chat. It’s going to be a short one, because I’m finishing up a piece on the disappearing knuckleball and have to depart for my first installment of physical therapy; last week, I was diagnosed with rotator cuff impingement syndrome, a relief since I thought I had re-torn my labrum, which I first tore in 2003. Hang tight and I’ll get to the questions shortly…
12:15
Jay Jaffe: OK, I’m back
12:16
Kurupt FM: Assuming equivalent salaries, who would you rather have for 10 years, Machado or Harper?
12:18
Jay Jaffe: If marketability is a primary concern, Harper is probably the choice, but the fact that Machado plays a more important defensive position, and is still a very skilled defender, probably points the needle in his direction for me.
12:18
Tucker: Is there such a thing as a rate of diminishing returns in MLB. Meaning does Machado impact San Diego projected wins or playoff odds at a greater rate than he’d impact the Yankees?
12:22
Jay Jaffe: There are basically two key factors in play: how good is the player Machado is replacing, and how many wins was the team projected for previously. Ofhand I’m not entirely sure where the point of inflection is in the two wild card era, but I think it’s around 85 wins where the addition of each additional win increases a team’s playoff odds much more substantially than it would otherwise, and once you get above 95 wins, each additional one doesn’t change things that much. See https://tht.fangraphs.com/rethinking-the-win-curve/ for a fairly recent look.
Dan Szymborski: The appointed time for chatting has now arrived.