Jay Jaffe: Howdy, folks, and my apologies for the tardiness — my browser, which was bearing the load open tabs from about five different articles (including published ones on Shin-Soo Choo, Noath Syndergaard and Yadier Molina plus forthcoming ones on Daniel Descalso’s pitching and Ken Giles melting down), crashed and needed a reset. On with the show…

Bob: Should Sheffield really be a dealbreaker for the Yankees getting Machado?  I know his arm is electric, but do you miss out on a HoF’er because you won’t let go of a guy who hasn’t mastered his control problems in the minors?

Jay Jaffe: Even if Machado may be a future Hall of Famer, the Yankees would be giving up six-plus years of a very good pitching prospect for what amounts to a 2 1/2-month rental to fill a need that they already have covered reasonably well by either Didi Gregorius or Miguel Andujar, plus whatever need might have for Sheffield’s services later this season. That’s a very steep price to pay, and I can’t blame the Yankees for searching for alternatives.

Bo: Is Dansby Swanson going to hit enough to stay as an everyday player?

Jay Jaffe: He’ll be able to produce on both sides of the ball — remember, the offensive demands for a shortstop are relatively low — well enough to stay as a regular, yes. Even with an 85 wRC+ this year, he’s been worth 1.2 WAR thanks to above-average glovework (+3.4 UZR, +11 DRS). Based upon his track record, he’s projected to hit better ROS, and as a 24-year-old, can expect some growth in his offensive skill over the next few years. If Andrelton Simmons can become an above-average hitter in time, I don’t think it’s beyond Swanson.

stever20: how crazy was what Arizona did last night with their pitching?

Kiley McDaniel: Kiley is here, live, and wants to chat with you!

Rick C: On a scale of 1-10, how big of a blunder was it for the Braves to fail to come to an agreement with Stewart?

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe a 3 or 4? We had 5 players ranked ahead of Stewart that were on the board for that pick. He’s a prep righty that was trending down leading up to draft day, an especially risky class of player. The 2019 class is college bat heavy and would appear to have enough 50 FV types to give the Braves a chance to get a comparable talent at 9 that’s a hitter and closer to the big leagues than Stewart would be, thus eliminating the only real negative: putting off having an elite prospect by a year.

Kiley McDaniel: Also fans, generally speaking, freak out way too much when a player doesn’t sign.

Larry: A lot of Braves fans saying that not signing Stewart isn’t a huge deal because of the compensation pick. Is that true though? The GCL/DSL levels of that system are extremely bare right now.

Kiley McDaniel: But what if you pick a guy that never plays at those levels? Also, missing one prospect from rookie ball doesn’t matter. There aren’t championships for most loaded rookie ball team.

Meg Rowley: Good morning, and welcome to the chat!

Meg Rowley: Carson has some away from his computer business to attend to, so I’ll just be going an hour so as to ensure that FanGraphs does not burn down in his absence. But for now? Chat!

Zonk: The contract is a sunk cost, but is Albert Pujols even worth a roster spot at this point into next season?  If the answer is no, how does this play out for the Angels and Albert?

Meg Rowley: He’s a marginally better hitter than last year? Pujols has not been good, and the feel good milestones are pretty much behind him now, but also, he isn’t the real reason the Angels aren’t in a Wild Card spot.

Meg Rowley: Given how the org has dealt with big, bad contracts in the past, I’d be surprised if they cut him outright.

Meg Rowley: In my own life, I once faced a decision between making finance money and being happy and satisfied, and decided to make a lot less, but I also wasn’t making Pujols’ salary. I imagine a time will come when it isn’t worth it for him anymore, but I wonder if that will be more a function of physical discomfort (he looks like running isn’t fun for him) than pride.

Dan Szymborski: Welcome to this very special episode of the Dan Szymborski chat!

Dan Szymborski: I want to talk about teen smoking.  If a bigger, stronger boy is making you smoke, you should say “No!  Smokers are jokers!” And then push him down the steps.

Dan Szymborski: I do have an announcement to make.  At the END of the chat.  And I promise you, unlike a certain children’s book THAT PROMISED A FRIGGING MONSTER, it won’t just be fricking Grover.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t promise that it won’t be disappointing.  Incoherently promise, incoherently deliver, I always say.

Greg: A question I never imagined even considering — Does Nick Markakis deserve a qualifying offer? Would he accept it?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a lot to pay for one year of Markakis.  I remain unconvinced that this is a good idea, but he *has* had a valuable season, the bes tof his career, at least offensively.

Travis Sawchik: Happy All-Star Snub Reaction Day

Travis Sawchik: There were many!

Travis Sawchik: The players might be worse at picking All-Stars than the general public …

Travis Sawchik: Let’s get started!

Rob: Who benefits more from Machado:  Dodgers or Brewers?

Travis Sawchik: Brewers, I think. Of each current iteration, FG projects the Dodgers to have much stronger division odds

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Jeff Sullivan: I was all prepared to bury the Nationals, and then they came back from down 9-0. That’s the Marlins for you!

:/: how long can the mariners pretend Ryon Healy is not a 0 WAR player and try something else?

Jeff Sullivan: The Healy thing is really not going very well

Jeff Sullivan: Not because he’s a bad player, but because he’s an entirely unimproved player

Eric A Longenhagen: Hi from Tempe. Links…

Eric A Longenhagen: Wrote up the new Reds prospects from the Floro deal…https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/scouting-the-reds-return-f…

Eric A Longenhagen: Today’s Daily Prospect Notes: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daily-prospect-notes-7-5/

Eric A Longenhagen: Look for Futures Game roster reaction tomorrow, as well as something on ESPN Insider on July 2 guys

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably gonna stick to a tight 60 min today, so let’s boogie

Robert: With the new J2 class, anyone that jumps off the charts outside of the top 5 or so? I’ve read good things on Alcantara and Pie

Jay Jaffe: Hey everybody! Thanks for stopping by today’s chat. Hopefully, you enjoyed the July 4 holiday and returned with a similar number of fingers as you had previously. Before we get into the questions, I’d like to call your attention to my upcoming appearance at Politics and Prose Bookstore in Washington, DC on July 14, where I’ll be signing copies of The Cooperstown Casebook and ESPN’s Keith Law will be doing the same for Smart Baseball; we’ll both discuss our books and field questions. It’s the night before the All-Star Futures Game, so if you’re in town for the event, please stop by!

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/jay-jaffe-and-keith-law-in…

And now, onto the questions….

Pio: DRS thinks Machado is a historically bad shortstop and UZR thinks he’s just regular bad. Which one do you think is closer to the truth?

Jay Jaffe: In general, I tend to prefer DRS to UZR because of the additional observational input beyond just batted ball type (both of which do have their biases, admittedly). But I think a good strategy when viewing defensive metrics is to be wary of the outliers, and DRS tends to have more than UZR does — the spread from top to bottom is generally wider. So I’ll go with garden-variety bad instead of historically bad.

Oh Mets…: I saw somewhere that the Mets are viewing Flores as their piece to move since hes controllable – but is there really any appetite at all for him? Can’t imagine the return would be that great.

Jay Jaffe: I saw the same thing and thought simiarly. Flores is a decent lefty-masher who’s stretched as a regular, and his defense on the left side of the infield is generally Not Good. He’s a useful spare-part pickup for a contending team but trading him isn’t going to do anything to change the course of the Mets’ org.

Greg: A question I never thought would be worth asking — is Nick Markakis worthy of a qualifying offer this offseason? If so, would he turn it down?

Meg Rowley: Happy baseball chat from the mountains, friends!

Meg Rowley: I’ll probably go a bit shorter than usual today in an effort to do some editing (read: go on a hike before it gets too hot).

Meg Rowley: But for now? Chat!

Brad Johnson: Does Justin always chat at the same time as you? (I swapped shifts with him)

Should I forward all the fantasy questions to you? You can direct the poop and farts to me I suppose.

Meg Rowley: He does I think? Everyone, go ask Brad your fantasy baseball questions.

Meg Rowley: Don’t you dare take the poop/farts beat away from me, Brad.

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Nick: Who is the biggest threat to the Mariners in the second AL WC spot. Is it really the A’s?

Jeff Sullivan: Basically has to be the A’s

Jeff Sullivan: They’re seven back. The next-closest team is the Angels, at ten back, and they’ve been completely decimated by injuries

Jeff Sullivan: Rays are 11 back. Blue Jays, 13. Twins, 13.5. It’s the A’s or it’s nobody