Archive for Chat

Dan Szymborski: ITS CHAT TIME

Dan Szymborski: BUT NOT ALL CAPITAL LETTERS TIME EXCEPT FOR ME

Dan Szymborski: <full-on corrupt>

LFC Mike: It is rumored that during the lightning roundtoday  Dan is going to go all Adam Levine on us.

Dan Szymborski: When you come to my chats, you get my industry leading NoNipple© Guarantee.

CamdenWarehouse: Does ZiPS give you a list of comp players and then you choose the one that is funniest, most painful for that fan base, etc. or are they all the closest comp?

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

San Diegan: Are the Padres signing Harper or Machado OR BOTH???

Jeff Sullivan: Not both!

Jeff Sullivan: Probably not one of them, either!

Jeff Sullivan: But their interest is legitimate. I assume they’re going to end up priced out, but Machado is such an obvious fit that they might as well remain involved

Eric A Longenhagen: Hello, it is I. I’m sure most of you know where the content is, so let’s get right to it.

randplaty: Is there a case for Tatis Jr over Vlad Jr? Or is that a non-starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, if you think Vlad moves to 1B/DH sooer than later and also have strong eval of Tatis at SS, I get it. I think Vlad stays at 3B for two years or so before he has to move.

randplaty: Any chance Luis Urias is a plus defender at second? He looked great defensively in his major league debut.

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, you could argue he’s fine at short, too.

GPT: Read your Giants instrux notes, great stuff. Anybody else stand out to you? Jairo Pomares, Jalen Miller, Yorlis Rodriguez?

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon from Brooklyn, where it’s a comparatively balmy 11 degrees (-4 with wind chill). The Hall of Fame circus has left town, but having missed last week’s post-announcement chat slot, I’ll still take questions on that topic, as well as hot stove stuff

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : Even though I am an obsessive baseball fan, i don’t know much about Hector Santiago. So I was surprised to see him #6 on the Mets starter depth chart in Szymborski’s ZIPS article on the Mets, ahead of Cory Oswalt. Is this just a projections thing, or has there been word that the Mets see him this way?

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t read much into it, honestly. Santiago has been a versatile and occasionally competent swingman over the years, while Oswalt was dreadful as a rookie last year. We’re talking about a projection for 38 innings versus one for 19 innings, and the likelihood is that there will be some jockeying in the spring, and perhaps another free agent added on a minor league deal who supersedes them both.

Guest: I tweeted you this already but:
Scott Rolen:
70.2/43.7/56.9/ 17 Yrs / 7 ASG / 122 OPS+

Biggio:
65.5/41.8/53.7/ 20 Yrs / 7 ASG / 112 OPS+

Thoughts?  Shouldn’t he be getting a lot more love from stat people?

Jay Jaffe: Rolen gets plenty of love from “stat people” — it’s the general BBWAA electorate that has been relatively reserved (17% included him this year), but that’s also a function of the clogged ballot, which will become considerably roomier over the next five years, as I wrote earlier this week (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/closing-the-floodgates-the-next-five-years…). I expect Rolen’s vote share to climb, especially as he’ll be the next guy in the Raines-Martinez-Walker lineage of players who get a push from the analytics community

yojiveself: Would you give Harper/Machado a 10 year contract?

Kiley McDaniel: Hello friends and also other people, it is time for us to chat

Kiley McDaniel: ICYMI, we posted an Orioles list and tomorrow we’ll be posting the Yankees list, but I’m taking a quick break from writing reports to chat with you people. Here’s the prospects index page with anything you may need from us: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/

Tommy N.: Mejia, Morejon, Renfroe too much for Realmuto if he doesn’t want an extension?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think Realmuto is being traded with an understanding he’ll sign an extension with the new team. I get the impression this is a 2-year rental and then he hits the market and maybe he likes his two years with you enough to give you a slight discount when everyone is bidding.

Kiley McDaniel: And that package isn’t insane, I’m not sure SD wants to pay that much and I don’t have a sense for if the market has cratered enough that you have to pay as much as we thought some teams may at the beginning of the offseason

Jeremy: How do you evaluate Yusei Kikuchi against other guys in his (likely) 55 FV bracket, like Chris Paddack, Brent Honeywell or Mitch Keller? Clearly higher ceiling and lower floor, but would that change his FV as well?

Meg Rowley: Hello, and welcome to the chat!

Well-Beered Englishman: If every team in the MLB offered you identical $300M contracts, which team/city would you choose, and why?

Meg Rowley: The following represents a list of places I personally would not mind living. It is not a list meant to denigrate any other city, or your preferences for them. But:

Meg Rowley: 1) Seattle 2) Denver 3) San Diego 4) Phoenix

Gaslamp Gary: How much of an upgrade at 3B would Moustaksa be compared to Machado? I  mean, either one would be an obvious upgrade. But is Mous THAT much worse, considering the price?

Meg Rowley: These projections are early (they don’t yet fold in ZiPS) but Machado is projected for 5.1 wins; Moustakas is projected for 2.7. Kiley’s estimated AAV for Machado was $31 million; Moustakas was $22. Granted, that deal would be much shorter, but you know who would be a really big help on a very good, young Padres team? Manny Machado.

Dan Szymborski: OH GOD WE’RE LIVE PANIC TIME

Matt: Will there be a zips top 100 prospect list like in previous years?

Dan Szymborski: Yup

Robby: Do you buy that Kris Bryant is actually fully healthy? Shoulder injuries are scary

Dan Szymborski: Shoulder injuries are! If forced to guess, I’d guess that he was fullly healthy, but not yet full strength

Dan Szymborski: If that makes sense.

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Friend: Opinions on Joe Ross vs Erick Fedde? Expectations?

Jeff Sullivan: I know it’s a small sample and I know Ross was coming back from surgery, but over all appearances last year he only struck out 26 batters in 42.1 innings

Jeff Sullivan: 7 in 16 in the majors

Jeff Sullivan: Real potential there for Ross to be a quality 4/5 but at the moment I’m a bigger fan of Fedde

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL. Scout call ran late but your next few lists are mostly done now. To your questions

Kiley McDaniel: Oh and in case you’re new here, I’m not gonna comment on other top 100 lists. The comment will be our own list, which is coming later

Bogs: Toss up: Nathaniel Lowe or Peter Alfonso?

Kiley McDaniel: Peter Alonso

Rays for Days: Hi Kiley! Is Wander Franco more so Manny Machado? or More so Carlos Correa?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s neither b/c people will be comparing prospects to him for awhile. Maybe Jose Ramirez is the closest thing in the big league like him?

Meg Rowley: Dear readers, a moment. I have to sort out a small editorial matter and then will be right with you.

Meg Rowley: Appreciate your patience.

Meg Rowley: Hello, and welcome to the chat.

Lunar verLander: Do you think there will be another free agent spring training camp like there was last year?

Meg Rowley: I wouldn’t be surprised, although I don’t have a great beat on how effective players thought that was last year, and of course it all depends on the timing of signings.

Meg Rowley: Players are understandably agitated about this winter not course correcting last year. They are increasingly vocal about their objections.