Eric A Longenhagen: Hello from crisp Tempe where guys are cutting dead limbs off of trees on my street. Some of these big coniferous jawns haven’t been doing so well with temps being what they’ve been. When should I move?

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s chat.

Anne: Bullish on the offensive ceilings of Xavier Isaac and Laz Montes? Seen them slip in some rankings, but purely on offense still middle of the order type ceilings?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have been higher on Isaac than Montes. Montes doesn’t have enormous power. I know he’s huge, but he’s slugged more because of the leagues/stadiums he’s played in more than because of his raw power. He also has a sub-70% contact rate. Mariners prospects can be overvalued during the Modesto/Everett window and then perhaps people over correct when they get to Arkansas (which is a tough place to hit)…

Eric A Longenhagen: Isaac has elite power, but his swing is a mess and needs to change if he’s going to hit enough to be relevant. His ceiling, imo, is clearly higher than Lazaro’s because the power is lurking.

Fans MLB Forever: What do you think about the anonymous voters that the Cooperstown Hall of Fame has and what would be the solution or what do you think about the minimum vote for each ballot being 5 votes or more?

drplantwrench: are the dodgers the team with the highest ZiPS projection ever?  who is if they arent/where do they place?

Dan Szymborski: Oh yeah, welcome yada yada

Dan Szymborski: It’s still preliminary, but while the Dodgers have the highest ZiPS projected wins ever, it’s not the 2025 Dodgers that are likely to grab that, but the 2021 Dodgers at 99 wins

Ahoy: As a Pirate fan who’s used to the disappointment of, well, everything, I admit the rosy projections of Horowitz and Gonzales made me happy! You surprised by those?

Dan Szymborski: Not REALLY, but only that it’s difficult to really surprise me after doing this for 20 years!

drplantwrench: what do you think of the angels signing max scherzer to a big one year contract? they could use the SP and could be trade bait if/when their season falls apart

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, where the Dream Series kicked off his morning. My attendance there plus what looks like it might be a looming Roki decision (he’s my responsibility to write up) means our chat will be shorter today.

Eric A Longenhagen: You know where to find the stuff I wrote for his week, I trust. So let’s get to it..

Phil: So all the sign are there. Roki will be a Blue Jay.

Eric A Longenhagen: A GM just told me that when they sourced uncommitted bonus pool amounts that Toronto had $1 million left. Acquiring a reported $2 mil puts them at an available $3 mil without breaking a deal.

Eric A Longenhagen: So we shall see

CY: Any insight on the Rangers pitching development this past year? Seems like they got a lot of breakouts with Alejandro rosario, kumar rocker, emiliano teodo, winston santos, kohl drake, and even some relief-only prospects in bryan magdaleno and skylar hales

Dan Szymborski: Umm, it seems to have started already, so I’ll be back here in 16 minutes.

Dan Szymborski: OK, NOW we’re starting for real!

Guest: Thx for chats…the Yankees traded for Fernando cruz….how does zips see him performing in 25?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has him at a 3.14 ERA/3.09 FIP, ERA+ 131 with a billion strikeouts in 57 IP in NY

Idiotic Failson: Why is my favorite team hated by ZIPs?

Dan Szymborski: Things that you have done.

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and happy new year! Welcome to my first chat of 2025

Jay Jaffe: Again it’s been awhile, as I’ve been snowed in by my Hall of Fame series, including a larger-than-usual crop of interesting one-and-done guys. Yesterday I covered Ben Zobrist (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2025-hall-of-fame-ballot-ben-…), tomorrow it’s Curtis Granderson, with Fernando Rodney and Adam Jones still to squeeze in before Tuesday’s election results.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve been doing a few Hall-related media spots lately, including a Hall of Very Good podcast and some discussions of the ballot with writers. If this kind of stuff floats your boat, check in with me at @jayjaffe.bsky.social to follow along. By the way, my Twitter account is now locked; I basically stopped posting there just before running my annual Hall of Fame ballot piece (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffes-2025-hall-of-fame-ballot), and I don’t plan to do more than occasionally lurk there going forward.

Jay Jaffe: We’re a week away from the Hall results being announced, so I expect several questions on that subject. With that, on with the show!

wheelhouse: i’m sure this is the least fun part of HOF voting to discuss, but does stuff like beltran starting low and gaining year-over-year bother you? in a sense i get it, but on some level a voter who switches to Yes on him thought that cheating was bad a year ago but this year actually it’s in the past now. no one twenty years from now is going to care if he went in second ballot or sixth, so i dunno, either cheating is disqualifying or it isn’t

Jay Jaffe: Actually, year-over-year changes is actually one of the most interesting aspects of covering the Hall beat. Voting doesn’t happen in a vacuum. Each candidate is competing with the other candidates for one of those 10 spots on a voter’s ballot, and while not everybody goes to 10, enough people do that even some deserving candidates get left off. The voting body changes from year to year, with old voters replaced by new ones, and returning candidates that do well get more scrutiny from voters that bypassed them the last time. It’s a very interesting set of dynamics in play, one we’ve started to get a better handle on thanks to Ryan Thibodaux and his ballot tracker group

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from windy Tempe where I’m working on the Giants prospect list and doubling back on my international bonus info to have as accurate a picture as I can for next week’s signing period kickoff…

Eric A Longenhagen: ICYMI in the last week or so, I wrote about the Luzardo trade Jesús (Luzardo) Is a Phillie | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: The Gavin Lux Trade: Reds Greenlight Gavin Lux Trade With Dodger Blue | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: the Diego Cartaya trade: Dodgers Trade Stunted Catching Prospect Diego Cartaya to Twins for Hard-Throwing DSL Arm | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: and the Rockies system: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/colorado-rockies-top-42-prospects

Eric A Longenhagen: How the Giants list and the Int’l list sequence early next week might depend on whether we learn of Sasaki’s destination over the weekend, and how much chaos that creates.