Dan Szymborski: Thank you those in attendance for fulfilling your legally required duties to appear here.

Justin: Hi Dan, what are your thoughts on the Victor Robles extension?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s unreasonable for anyone

Dan Szymborski: He’s hit a lot better last two seasons, but in a limited role. But there’s certainly a good deal of risk

Dan Szymborski: but theres’ upside too. People forget that Robles was once one of the elite prospects and had a *very* solid rookie season

Dan Szymborski: But there’s downside too since he has like a low .600s OPS since COVID

Dan Szymborski: Good afternoon gang!

Dan Szymborski: Well, not an organized gang

Dallas: Why can’t Ke’Bryan Hayes hit more consistently, and is there any chance some team might be willing to trade for him this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: He’s a decent contact hitter, but his pitch selection has always been rather dysfunctional; he’s not a Javy Baez-esque flailer, but he hits a lot of rather mediocre pitches and lets a lot of good ones go by

Dan Szymborski: Add in taht he has power upside and the swings in fortune can be pretty intense

White Sox FO: What “outside the box” manager should I use for the rest of the season?

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! It’s been awhile since I did one of these thanks to even more July chaos than usual — Replacement Level Killers, trade deadline and Hall of Fame stuff. Glad to finally squeeze one of these in.

Jay Jaffe: On Friday, I wrote about the Padres gaining ground not just in the NL Wild Card race but also the NL West race https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-padres-have-tightened-the-nl-west-race…. I mention that because I’ve got a piece on the Braves that’s about to run, looking at how they’ve slipped into a three-way tie atop the NL Wild Card standings.

Jay Jaffe: And yesterday I took a look at the news regarding yet another lost season for Mike Trout, which put me in mind of Ken Griffey Jr.’s rough run in his 30s https://blogs.fangraphs.com/with-another-lost-season-for-mike-trout-a-…

Jay Jaffe: (grateful for the ZiPS help from Dan Szymborski on that one and yes, i’ll take the over on the post-2024 Trout projection)

Ryan: For what Preller had to cut in payroll and trading Soto I think this is his best job as a GM to date. It just seems like a more complete team then any of his previous iterations. Thoughts on the job he’s done with the restrictions placed on him?

Jay Jaffe: As noted above, I wrote about the Padres on Friday. They’ve dealt with some significant injuries but this has turned out to be a deeper squad than last year, in part because they somehow lucked into a Jurickson Profar career year after a season that might have been a career-ender, and because the Jackson Merrill center field move has paid off so well. I thought they did very well in augmenting their bullpen at the deadline.

Long story short, the Padres’ strength in scouting under Preller, and his philosophy about trading them instead of getting too attached to them, has allowed him to reinforce his rosters and remain competitive even while dealing with some limitations.

Dan Szymborski: And awaaaay we go!

Ryan: Do you think the Padres have a shot of running down the Dodgers? The offense is humming and that bullpen looks insanely filthy.

Dan Szymborski: A shot? Yes. But it’s an uphill fight. Dodgers are an excellent team. The Padres need to not just be really good, they have to have the Dodgers hit some of their swingy injury risk in their high-end talent

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has Dodgers at like 77% this morning, and I think I’d take the over on what the true mystical probability is that we can’t actually tell

Sam: ZiPS seems to really like Danny Jansen to the Sox.  Is it because his swing is well suited to Fenway?  Similarly in the preseason ZiPS projections for 2024, Jansen’s full year projection is with the Red Sox now – is this projecting him playing half his games at Fenway?

Dan Szymborski: No, the site doesn’t reformulate the old projections