Dan Szymborski: And awaaaay we go!

Ryan: Do you think the Padres have a shot of running down the Dodgers? The offense is humming and that bullpen looks insanely filthy.

Dan Szymborski: A shot? Yes. But it’s an uphill fight. Dodgers are an excellent team. The Padres need to not just be really good, they have to have the Dodgers hit some of their swingy injury risk in their high-end talent

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has Dodgers at like 77% this morning, and I think I’d take the over on what the true mystical probability is that we can’t actually tell

Sam: ZiPS seems to really like Danny Jansen to the Sox.  Is it because his swing is well suited to Fenway?  Similarly in the preseason ZiPS projections for 2024, Jansen’s full year projection is with the Red Sox now – is this projecting him playing half his games at Fenway?

Dan Szymborski: No, the site doesn’t reformulate the old projections

Eric A Longenhagen: Good evening and hello from the Stockyards and the 2024 MLB Draft. It’s full in here and they’ve leaned into the Texas of it all in a way that I am enjoying.

Carlos Danger: Can’t wait for the day after mock

Eric A Longenhagen: the ole’ Jason Parks move.

Guest: Latest update for top 10 surprise?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s live now. Not a lot of dope that I trust flowing today but what I got is in there.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll be Woj’ing picks tonight so feel free to use that intel to make a ton of money on draft props.

Dan Szymborski: It is time.  A time for chats.

ForWhomTheBellTrolls: RE- KC Royals. A lot of fans seem to think it might be a mistake to “sell the future” for reliever rentals and whatnot, and obviously there is a balance. But to me, the farm system is so bad and the team is so far away from actually being a legitimate looking sustainable contender that it could be another 5  years before they are in this type of position again. Do you think it actually makes more sense to sort of  “go all in” to some degree for KCR?

Dan Szymborski: I think there’s something to that…if not for Cleveland.

Dan Szymborski: I think if you go all-in, you at least want to have a really good shot at the division

Dan Szymborski: and the second best record

Dan Szymborski: It becomes trickier when you’re mostly chasing a wild card

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another one of my Tuesday chats. This one is from the field office in Wellfleet, where I’m stationed for two weeks with my family — working this week, off next is the plan. Not long ago, my piece on Jack Flaherty’s bounceback went up (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-change-of-scenery-has-worked-well-for-ja…), and yesterday I looked at the injuries to the Dodgers’ Mookie Betts and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dodgers-double-whammy-as-yamamoto-and-bett…)

Jay Jaffe: Tomorrow I’ll have something on the Yankees and Anthony Rizzo’s broken arm. Injuries have cut into my list of players I was planning on checking into; some of those might have to wait until after I return. We’ll see

MP: Kelenic going to get an article soon about turning his season around? Just a hot streak or do you think some of this can stick?

Jay Jaffe: Kelenic is 24 years old, and while that’s too young to write off, a quick look at his splits and trends tells me not to get very excited about two hot weeks. Yes, he’s hitting the ball harder but not that hard, he’s also chasing more than you’d like, and unlike last year, he’s really struggling against lefties.

Section 34: Will Fangraphs ever do an Orioles top prospects list this year?

Jay Jaffe: Assuming they don’t secede from Major League Baseball, I would think so, but I don’t make the schedule. I imagine they’re coming soon – obviously, it’s a deep system with lots of interesting players who are becoming more relevant as the July 30 deadline approaches.