Eric A Longenhagen: Hi hello from Tempe, where the air is filled with the never-ending drone of leaf blowers.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m gonna start chat off on a somewhat confrontational note.

Eric A Longenhagen: There are (more this week than usual) lots of questions in my queue asking me to comment on other peoples’ work or opinions. Here are some examples:

Simpson: Why is Chandler Simpson (Tampa) not getting any love. The guy’s a 70 hitter with 80 speed—and he’s not on the top 100 anywhere. What am I missing about him?

Johnny: who are some prospects you are higher and lower on consensus in the bluejays system

Accudart: Dodger Ferris projections are quite varied…is his ceiling only sp3 or do you feel more .thanks

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! For the first time in awhile I’m on my second chat of the month, as the Hall of Fame election is now behind us

Jay Jaffe: Before I forget: I’m going to be part of Nick Pollock’s PitchCon this Friday at 3 PM, doing  — what else — a Hall of Fame-related presentation while helping to raise $ for ALS research https://pitcherlist.com/pitchcon/2025/

Jay Jaffe: Please check it out if so inclined

EonADS: Hey Jay, thanks for all the hard work you put in on the Hall of Fame information for Fangraphs each year. I know I certainly appreciate it.

Jay Jaffe: I’m very lucky to be in a position where FanGraphs give me as much space to cover the candidates and the Hall of Fame process. It’s a lot of fun, and i know it’s something people care deeply about. As I like to say, it’s been my dumb luck to happen upon a resource that is practically a renewable source of energy

Alby: Harold Baines and Dave Parker were excellent hitters, but most  consider them weak choices for the Hall of Fame. Does it feel like veterans’ committees have given more weight to offensive statistics than to other factors, making such players look more like HoF’s to them?

Jay Jaffe: Given that the Veterans/Era Committees are generally about 50% players, it’s not surprising that they default to the more mainstream statistics which are not only usually offense-related but also centered more around old-school stats (AVG-HR-RBI, W-L) than new-school ones. That’s a lot of what drives the choices — with less thought to defense

Jay Jaffe: which isn’t to say that WAR and JAWS don’t get mentioned – I’ve been told my stuff gets circulated in the room but that’s not to say it’s driving voters’ choices

Eric A Longenhagen: Hello from crisp Tempe where guys are cutting dead limbs off of trees on my street. Some of these big coniferous jawns haven’t been doing so well with temps being what they’ve been. When should I move?

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s chat.

Anne: Bullish on the offensive ceilings of Xavier Isaac and Laz Montes? Seen them slip in some rankings, but purely on offense still middle of the order type ceilings?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have been higher on Isaac than Montes. Montes doesn’t have enormous power. I know he’s huge, but he’s slugged more because of the leagues/stadiums he’s played in more than because of his raw power. He also has a sub-70% contact rate. Mariners prospects can be overvalued during the Modesto/Everett window and then perhaps people over correct when they get to Arkansas (which is a tough place to hit)…

Eric A Longenhagen: Isaac has elite power, but his swing is a mess and needs to change if he’s going to hit enough to be relevant. His ceiling, imo, is clearly higher than Lazaro’s because the power is lurking.

Fans MLB Forever: What do you think about the anonymous voters that the Cooperstown Hall of Fame has and what would be the solution or what do you think about the minimum vote for each ballot being 5 votes or more?

drplantwrench: are the dodgers the team with the highest ZiPS projection ever?  who is if they arent/where do they place?

Dan Szymborski: Oh yeah, welcome yada yada

Dan Szymborski: It’s still preliminary, but while the Dodgers have the highest ZiPS projected wins ever, it’s not the 2025 Dodgers that are likely to grab that, but the 2021 Dodgers at 99 wins

Ahoy: As a Pirate fan who’s used to the disappointment of, well, everything, I admit the rosy projections of Horowitz and Gonzales made me happy! You surprised by those?

Dan Szymborski: Not REALLY, but only that it’s difficult to really surprise me after doing this for 20 years!

drplantwrench: what do you think of the angels signing max scherzer to a big one year contract? they could use the SP and could be trade bait if/when their season falls apart

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, where the Dream Series kicked off his morning. My attendance there plus what looks like it might be a looming Roki decision (he’s my responsibility to write up) means our chat will be shorter today.

Eric A Longenhagen: You know where to find the stuff I wrote for his week, I trust. So let’s get to it..

Phil: So all the sign are there. Roki will be a Blue Jay.

Eric A Longenhagen: A GM just told me that when they sourced uncommitted bonus pool amounts that Toronto had $1 million left. Acquiring a reported $2 mil puts them at an available $3 mil without breaking a deal.

Eric A Longenhagen: So we shall see

CY: Any insight on the Rangers pitching development this past year? Seems like they got a lot of breakouts with Alejandro rosario, kumar rocker, emiliano teodo, winston santos, kohl drake, and even some relief-only prospects in bryan magdaleno and skylar hales

Dan Szymborski: Umm, it seems to have started already, so I’ll be back here in 16 minutes.

Dan Szymborski: OK, NOW we’re starting for real!

Guest: Thx for chats…the Yankees traded for Fernando cruz….how does zips see him performing in 25?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has him at a 3.14 ERA/3.09 FIP, ERA+ 131 with a billion strikeouts in 57 IP in NY

Idiotic Failson: Why is my favorite team hated by ZIPs?

Dan Szymborski: Things that you have done.

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and happy new year! Welcome to my first chat of 2025

Jay Jaffe: Again it’s been awhile, as I’ve been snowed in by my Hall of Fame series, including a larger-than-usual crop of interesting one-and-done guys. Yesterday I covered Ben Zobrist (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2025-hall-of-fame-ballot-ben-…), tomorrow it’s Curtis Granderson, with Fernando Rodney and Adam Jones still to squeeze in before Tuesday’s election results.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve been doing a few Hall-related media spots lately, including a Hall of Very Good podcast and some discussions of the ballot with writers. If this kind of stuff floats your boat, check in with me at @jayjaffe.bsky.social to follow along. By the way, my Twitter account is now locked; I basically stopped posting there just before running my annual Hall of Fame ballot piece (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffes-2025-hall-of-fame-ballot), and I don’t plan to do more than occasionally lurk there going forward.

Jay Jaffe: We’re a week away from the Hall results being announced, so I expect several questions on that subject. With that, on with the show!

wheelhouse: i’m sure this is the least fun part of HOF voting to discuss, but does stuff like beltran starting low and gaining year-over-year bother you? in a sense i get it, but on some level a voter who switches to Yes on him thought that cheating was bad a year ago but this year actually it’s in the past now. no one twenty years from now is going to care if he went in second ballot or sixth, so i dunno, either cheating is disqualifying or it isn’t

Jay Jaffe: Actually, year-over-year changes is actually one of the most interesting aspects of covering the Hall beat. Voting doesn’t happen in a vacuum. Each candidate is competing with the other candidates for one of those 10 spots on a voter’s ballot, and while not everybody goes to 10, enough people do that even some deserving candidates get left off. The voting body changes from year to year, with old voters replaced by new ones, and returning candidates that do well get more scrutiny from voters that bypassed them the last time. It’s a very interesting set of dynamics in play, one we’ve started to get a better handle on thanks to Ryan Thibodaux and his ballot tracker group