Dan Szymborski: Welcome to THUNDER CHAT

Dan Szymborski: OK, just regular chat, but adding Thunder to things always makes them more exciting

Old Hoss Radbourn: I know xStats are flawed (even more so this year because of the change in offensive environment), but they’re showing Abraham Toro getting insanely unlucky.  Is there some bad luck masking a real breakout here?

Dan Szymborski: I think ther’es some bad luck

Dan Szymborski: xStat stuff is having *calibration* problems, but it should be an issue of *bias* more than accuracy really

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS stats are more predictive (with slightly differing methodology) and is similarly overexpecting results

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to today’s chat!

Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece up today on the Blue Jays infield’s underachievement this season https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-blue-jays-infield-has-yet-to-soar/. And I had a piece about Mookie Betts heating up a couple days ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mookie-betts-is-mostly-fine/

Jay Jaffe: I’ve also got a 5 1/2 year old who just came home from school with a fever after getting Not Enough Sleep last night — thankfully everybody in the household has tested negative in the past 24 hours, which is a start — but we’re going to see how long I can push this chat without interruptions. Please bear with me.

Dmitrt: Hi Jay. What should the yanks do with Chapman? And what WILL they do?

Jay Jaffe: They should probably give him a break from closing games until he starts pitching better; he’s allowed a run in each of his past four outings. I haven’t looked at his numbers closely, but I do wonder about whether his release point is off, which is something i noted in connection with last year’s struggles https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aroldis-chapmans-nosedive-is-dragging-the-…

Alby: Are the majority of players in the Hall of Fame small hall or big hall guys, or are they evenly split? I know they get a vote. Do they tend to make their picks public?

Dan Szymborski: And we are here as this is a chat!

Guest: Martin Perez is on a tear! Small sample luck? Better pitch mix? Dead ball? Can any of this be sustainable?

Dan Szymborski: The dead ball helps him a bit. His cutter’s generally been working, and his peripheral numbers have improved too. He’s had runs where his cutter’s been working and he’s been effective, but he has had trouble keeping that up

M.F. Luder: Is there any hope for Alex Verdugo?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, in fact, he has better advanced hitting stats better than most guys playing that poorly

Joey Baggadonuts: If/when the Nats call up Luis Garcia, what do you expect to see from him rest-of-season? He’s absolutely crushed AAA while being quite young for the level; Steamer seems like it’s underselling him…

Dan Szymborski: Good afternoon!

Dan Szymborski:

Jeff: What do we make of Semien? Same slow start as last year, or something else?

Dan Szymborski: I’m still on slow start.

Ryan: What language do you primarily code in? Does the answer depend on the project? I.e the ZIPS model vs. a random Thursday article research

Dan Szymborski: Depends. I’m not a coder, I’m a math guy who codes a little when he’s stuck doing. I use a combination of Excel with some statistical package third party add-ons and Visual Basic

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to what is going to be an abbreviated version of the usual festivities, as I have to be out the door at about 3:15 ET.

Jay Jaffe: The quick housekeeping: My week featured pieces on the Hall of Fame’s Era Committee shakeup https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-hall-of-fame-shakes-up-its-era-committ…, Mike Trout’s hot start https://blogs.fangraphs.com/amid-fits-and-starts-mike-trout-might-be-g…, Bryce Harper’s elbow https://blogs.fangraphs.com/checking-in-on-bryce-harper-full-time-desi… and more.

Travis: You buying Kyle Wright? Anyone planning on a Wright article? I’m curious if the changes he made are sustainable.

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t had a chance to lay eyes on Wright but I know people are talking about his hot start. He’s been lit up at the major league level before, but the Braves thought highly enough of him to make him a top-5 pick five years ago. We know pitching development is non-linear, so it shouldn’t be a shock when a guy takes a big leap forward, especially when it comes with a jump in velocity — often suggesting cleaner mechanics and possibly better command as well.  I imagine we’ll have coverage of him soon enough, either from me or someone else

Chip: Should Yankee fans stop whining about their team now? Or is there something else they should be angry about?

Jay Jaffe: They should be comforted by the strong start, but I think they have reason to be concerned about the team’s catching situation, the overreliance upon aging players, and the fact that they didn’t land one of the star shortstops who hit the market. As irate as they were in the spring? No, but I think ownership could be doing more to fortify this team (even given their huge payroll).