Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat of February and my first in my new (and maybe very old, I’d have to check) time slot. I’m back in circulation after a bout of COVID (boo) among other things. Yesterday I did a piece on the contentious arbitration hearing of Corbin Burnes and what some fair contract offers for him might look like based on ZiPS (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/milwaukee-burnes-a-bridge/). Next up is a piece on Manny Machado’s plans to opt out. Anyway, on with the show…

Wireless Joe Jackson: How is it that Helton is going to walk into the HoF but Olerud got one-and-done’d with 4 votes?  I am OUTRAGED!  Or at least as outraged as possible regarding a HoF thing.

Jay Jaffe: It’s a bummer that Olerud went one-and-done on the 2011 ballot, but it’s not that hard to understand why. He came along as a candidate at a time when the electorate was rather stingy and largely paying no mind to advanced statistics. His raw totals of both hits (2,239) and home runs (255) did not read as Hall of Fame-caliber totals. A look at JAWS shows that he’s 24th at the position, just above contemporaries Jason Giambi and Will Clark (both one-and-done as well) but below Keith Hernandez. He’s 3.6 WAR behind Helton in career WAR and 7.6 WAR behind him in peak WAR — more than a win per year at his very best — and the 5.6-point gap between Helton (54.2, 0.8 above the Hall standard) and Olerud (48.6, 4.8 points below) is a big one where dreams of Cooperstown vanish into thin air.

Fan: Hello Jay, what are the chances Kenny Lofton gets voted in by the Veteran’s committee any time soon?

Jay Jaffe: very very low. It’s harder to get on to a ballot with the committee change and so long as this is hanging over his head it’s tough to see another candidate being bumped off the ballot to make room for him and thus drawing negative publicity to the process. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-08-22/kenny-lofton-accus…

Guest: Merrifield starting at 2B in Toronto? Roster Resource has him starting over Espinal.

Dan Szymborski: SzymChat is *back* now that I’m firmly in the domain of the living.

Greg: As a Braves fan with very little to complain about, I’ve thought of something that is driving me nuts. Why is Ozzie Albies continuing to switch hit? He’s bad left handed and much better right handed. Are players stubborn about this? Do front offices not suggest this? I feel like I’m missing something obvious because it seems like such a no brainer.

Dan Szymborski: Players tend to be stubborn about dropping pinch-hitting.

Dan Szymborski: And with Albies, he isn’t *so* bad left-handed that the issue is likely to be forced.

Dan Szymborski: I mean, he’s still at around a .750 OPS left-handed

Keefths: Dan !!! Can you please please please tell us when Prospect Week is ?!??!
We don’t know how much longer we can last without it !!

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and happy Friday, folks! Welcome to my first chat since the Hall of Fame results were announced. My reaction piece is here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/rolen-into-cooperstown-bbwaa-voters-avoid-…

Jay Jaffe: and my candidate-by-candidate rundown here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-candidate-by-candidate-look-at-the-2023-…

Jay Jaffe: I spoke to the Ballot Tracker’s mastermind, Ryan Thibodaux, for the first time in our collective history for today’s FanGraphs Audio here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-ryan-thibodaux-chats-ballo…

Jay Jaffe: I’ll have my five-year HOF election outlook piece on Monday, and another FGA spot for next Friday as well.

Tacoby Bellsbury: Who gets inducted first: Jeff Kent or Chase Utley?

Jay Jaffe: My guess is Kent, even though he has to cool his heels for the next three years. Utley’s facing quite a crowd on the next two ballots, and while I’ll find room for him, I don’t know that everybody who wants to vote for him necessarily will get to right off the bat.

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, it’s been a crazy busy day and I only noticed a few minutes ago that the chat notification didn’t show up on the home page or on Twitter. We’ll see if we can get a critical mass by 2:15 pm ET. Thank. you for your patience!

Jay Jaffe: OK, since there are at least some questions in the queue that will be fun to answer, I’m going to do a short chat.

Greg: A player exactly like Barry Bonds has an identical career as him. He gets voted into the HoF. On the day before induction, he comes out that he used PEDs every single day – is the induction cancelled?

Jay Jaffe: No way. It would be a logistical and public relations nightmare for tens of thousands of people and dozens if not hundreds of area businesses. There’s a sign in the HOF plaque gallery about the membership and the information the plaques reflecting the best available information at the time; this would fall under that category (and the language on that sign might be tweaked).

Led Tasso: Really enjoy your HoF below 5% posts; when will they be announcing the Hall voting results?

Jay Jaffe: The results show on MLB Network will air at 6 PM on Tuesday, January 24. I think it takes about 10-15 minutes to cut to the chase