Meg Rowley: Hi everyone and welcome to the chat!

Guest: Thoughts on why teams wait so long to sign players in the off season?  It seems that there would be an advantage to get players in your system to become comfortable with coaches, analytics, and teammates earlier.  Also allows you to plan better for any early spring training injuries.

Meg Rowley: I think there are a couple of things going on, some of which are specific to our pandemic times and some of which are reflect broader economic trends in the sport. Generally, teams are better able to wait out free agents than free agents are to wait out teams – clubs hope that the delay will exert downward pressure on contract demands because the closer to opening day a player is without a contract, the more likely he is to sign any deal, just to secure a spot.

Meg Rowley: I think that phenom also tends to affect those teams that do want to get guys rostered earlier because the player might want to develop a better sense of his market before signing.

Meg Rowley: More specifically this year, I think the uncertainty about how long of a season we’re going to have in 2021 and whether the NL will have the DH introduced a dynamic that also contributed to the delay.

Meg Rowley: Plus, there’s a CBA negotiation coming up, which probably has at least some effect on new deals as teams are conscious that they might have a different labor and salary landscape in 2022.

dbfirstman: Welcome back Kevin ……

Kevin Goldstein: Thanks! And thanks to everyone who has reached out with kind words, and even the few with not so kind ones. First chat in eight years, so let’s start with a former podcast guest in the Scrabble lady! Looking forward to your questions.

Slippin’Jimmy: Hey Kevin, longtime Astros fan here who is super excited to have you here at Fangraphs! Over the past few years, even before the scandal, there were rumors about cultural issues within the FO that you briefly mentioned in your introduction. What was your experience there and where did they stem from?

Kevin Goldstein: To be clear, most of my experience with the Astros goes in the positive column. I had a really good time. Seven good years, one . . . . well, not so good. Not that there weren’t problems. There were cultural issues within the Astros front office, but I honestly believe that many of them were not specific to the Astros, but more as to the industry itself.

Rodney: It’s taken a few years. But it looks like Teoscar Hernandez might be a bit of a guy, after all. How did the org value him before the trade?

Kevin Goldstein: I feel like at times I’m going to fall into “KG story time” mode, so let me know if it gets annoying. My first trip for the Astros was to instructs in the fall of 2012. First guy to catch my eye was the GCL outfielder with the crazy bat speed. It was Teoscar. Liked him from there, and always was a big fan of him as a person. GREAT guy with a great work ethic. I got him wrong. I thought he was going to be a really nice fourth outfielder, but it’s important to note that when you think about players that exceed expectations, makeup is often a big factor in that. The reverse is true as well.

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and welcome to my first chat in this new time slot as well as my first one of 2021!

Jay Jaffe: While I wait for the queue to gain steam, some housekeeping… First, a fond farewell to colleague Craig Edwards, who’s making a leap to becoming an analyst for the Major League Baseball Players Association https://blogs.fangraphs.com/goodbye-and-thank-you/

Jay Jaffe: Second, I awoke to the pleasant surprise of having my Missed Time and the Hall of Fame series nominated for a SABR Analytics Research Conference Award. Colleagues Craig, Ben Clemens and Meg Rowley were also nominated in other categories, as were many friends and familiar names. Congrats to all of these fine nominees! Do read these pieces when you get a chance, and vote on them starting next week. https://sabr.org/latest/announcing-finalists-for-2021-sabr-analytics-c…

Jay Jaffe: Here’s a link to mine: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/missed-time-and-the-hall-of-fame-part-1, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/missed-time-and-the-hall-of-fame-part-2, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/missed-time-and-the-hall-of-fame-part-3

Jay Jaffe: Here’s my candidate-by-candidate roundup of this week’s Hall of Fame voting. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-candidate-by-candidate-look-at-the-2… My 5-year outlook piece will run on Monday, and wow has it change even with nobody elected this year.

Jay Jaffe: Get your FanGraphs mug while you still can:  https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-new-fangraphs-mug-is-now-available…

Dan Szymborski: And hello!

Dan Szymborski: Welcome to a so-far uneventful Thursday!

@gallen27: Going along with the current stock market theme, what player do you think teams are shorting but you think should be picked up for high upside?

Dan Szymborski: Call me crazy, but I still like Odorizzi

brad penny for your thoughts: do you find it weird you have a wikipedia article?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. It’s a bit annoying since it’s a decade out of date too; it’s literally before I worked for ESPN!@

Dan Szymborski: And hello happy chatters, for this edition of SzymChat that appeared on the front page!

TD: Assuming the Mets have about $25m to spend, how would you distribute that money to improve the roster?

Dan Szymborski: I think I’d sign Justin Turner for $10 million and pay myself $15 million. It improves the roster.

Dan: Finally got on for one of your chats this year…

Can you do the ZiPS “what-if” I’ve been nagging you about for a decade, Bonds if he hadn’t been a victim of collusion in ’07?

I’m guessing ~50 more homers, ~135 OPS+ in three seasons.

Dan Szymborski: It’s only like the third one!

Dan Szymborski: He *was* quite old at this point so even if he hadn’t declined, it was going to happen. I can to a Time Warp on tha tthough.

Meg Rowley: Hi everyone, and welcome to the chat.

AJ: Way too early World Series matchup prediction?

Meg Rowley: Padres vs. White Sox. Is it the most probable matchup? Perhaps not. Is it a reasonable prediction? Yes. Would I enjoy it very much? Also yes.

Rob: How is it possible to own a billion dollar business with all the resources at your disposal and still fail miserably at vetting an incredibly important hire. I don’t get it. To be honest, it seems more like they don’t really care rather than they are incompetent.

Meg Rowley: I don’t think that they don’t care. An organization that doesn’t care doesn’t fire him. I do think that the fact of his hiring along with some of Alderson’s answers suggest that it is a process in need of reforms, first among them doing background with folks who Porter didn’t have an incentive to manage up to.

BlueJayMatt: No question, just a Jays fan feeling pretty good today. The next few years in Toronto are going to be a lot of fun!