Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, folks. Lots of smoke to talk about today…

The West is Wild: If the draft were to get canceled, how much of the reasoning would you put on: a) lost revenues for team and, b) the fact that scouts have no one to, uh, scout right now?

Scott: If MLB cancels the 2020 draft but plays a partial 2020 season (say, e.g., 81 games), how would the 2021 draft order be determined. Perhaps use teams’ combined records from 2019 and 2020?

The West is Wild: If the draft were to get canceled, what happens with those prospects? Does a draft happen in October/November? Do they get rolled into the 2021 draft, and if so, does baseball enlarge bonus pools? Is this the precursor to abolishing the draft altogether?

Garland: If the 2020 MLB season is canceled, but they still hold the 2020 MLB draft…how do they determine the draft order for the 2021 draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: There are lots of questions regarding 2020 draft cancellation in the queue. I’ll start by saying Idon’t think it’l happen, that it creates too many logistial problems for the following year to be worth MLB cramming two draft classes into one year so they can play one year’s worth of bonuses for two years of talent. I think cancelling the draft is one of many possible things the league has indeed discussed and that it was floated to see how everyone would respond, including the MLBPA, just in case it presents MLB with the most cost-effective course of action.

Mac: Does ZiPS come with standard deviations? If so who has the largest assuming you’re able to leave playing time out of equation (Otherwise it would just be the large difference between healthy Trout and out for the season Trout)?

Dan Szymborski: Happy Thursday!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t specifically spit out a standard deviation, but I do it from the other side: specific events and the probability of those (like a .300 BA, 40 HR, etc)

Dan Szymborski: And I have projectile percentages in beta right now as I work out the kinks, mainly due to defensive volatility and projections

LAXTONTO: Can you do my online recordings for my grad students for me?

Aceman: Dynasty

Meg Rowley: Hi everyone – going to give the queue a bit more time to fill up. Will get started in a few minutes!

JR: Given the Marlins much improved farm system, how many seasons (assuming this one happens) do you think before Miami is a viable postseason contender? Or at least playing meaningful games after June?

Meg Rowley: Heck, they might be playing meaningful games this June (please let’s be playing baseball in June!) – a shortened season can make things pretttty weird. But realistically, I’d say two more. And a lot depends on them being willing to spend money, which…

Josh: I know there are more important issues than baseball, but how do you think shortened seasons will look similar to the strike-shortened seasons of the past?

Meg Rowley: I think we might end up with some real funky playoff teams if things keep dwindling, though that likely manifests more as surprising Wild Card teams, or a few of the more coin flippy divisions going to the opposite side of the coin than we expected.

Meg Rowley: The Yankees are still good. The Brave are still good. And the longer they’re on break, the more dudes they get back.

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, welcome to the latest edition of my Monday chat and likely the first under some fairly trying conditions that we’re all facing. It was moments after last week’s chat that my wife howled, “Oh shit!” at an email announcing the sudden closure of my daughter’s school, effective end of day (she’s 3 1/2, in her first year of preschool). At the time, it was one of those “abundance of caution” things but as the week grew progressively — and aggressively — more surreal, it looks like we were merely a few days ahead of the curve.

Jay Jaffe: I spent the remainder of last week getting up to speed on the COVID-19 virus and its intersection with baseball and other sports, as you may have seen, and I took the lead for our first installment of what will be a daily roundup of the latest news on that front, leading with the news of the first professional player to test positive, an unidentified Yankees farmhand. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/covid-19-roundup-the-first-player-has-test…

Jay Jaffe: My wife and I already worked from home so that part isn’t so difficult to adapt to, but having our daughter underfoot is a challenge. We’re trying to get a bit of help, babysitting-wise, but it’s understandable if people want to isolate themselves.

Jay Jaffe: Over the weekend, in addition to stocking up on food and cleaning supplies, I sprung for a lot of LEGO to help keep us entertained. Maybe that will help.

Anyway, I hope you all are managing out there. Now, onto the questions.

SweetSweetCandy: looks like a june start … maybe later. does this help or hurt any team more than most?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a good question. Both schedule-wise and injury recovery-wise, the stoppage will have an impact that differs from team to team. We’ll be looking at the latter issue in some systematic fashion, I think (it’s been discussed internally), and I know that Dan Szymborski is examining it from a ZiPS playoff odds standpoint as well. That might even be up today.

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s been a weird few days. Most of the questions in the queue are related to the impact of the global pandemic on baseball. Many of them don’t have answers yet, but deserve thought and discussion. The pace of today’s chat may be slower because it’ll likely be about weighty stuff that requires more thought than how hard Georgia Tech’s Tuesday guy throws (vary hard, btw).

Mitch: I have travel plans to go to AZ on Monday. The main reason is to go to the Cubs’ backfields. I can safely assume that those are gonna be closed to the public, right?

Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s one I don’t know. I’m not sure what teams plan to do about minor league spring training games. They aren’t typically what would be considered problem areas but now that there’s no other baseball to watch and people are either here or coming here, they’re more likely to draw bigger crowds and become risky. I think the pace at which all of this is developing means that cessation of minor league games altogether is probably coming. Players travel from all over the world to train here.

Justin: How do you think the disruption and cancellation of seasons and tournaments like the CWS will affect the draft, especially at the top?

Eric A Longenhagen: There are a couple of variables, and this is just my thinking and talking with folks in baseball to this point. 1. There either is or isn’t any amateur baseball to watch the rest of the year. 2. They either move or don’t move the date of the draft (which may depend on what happens with 1.) 3. What the NCAA does about player eligibility and scholarship numbers may impact who wants to declare.

Dan Szymborski: Welcome to SzymChat where the only thing contagious is friendship! And maybe chickenpox.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Let’s start with the obvious one: Will there be baseball on March 26th?

Dan Szymborski: No

jz: dan,

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t even DONE anything yet.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Will players be paid their full salaries this season if games do get cancelled, or if they only play, say, 120 games, will players only get paid 120/162 of their salary?