Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to today’s chat. Just moments ago I filed my lengthy tribute to Jim Bouton, who passed away yesterday [Update: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pitcher-author-everyman-hero-jim-bouton-1939-2019/]. He had a massive impact not only on the culture at large, but on me personally, as I crossed paths with him several times. Thus I’m more than a little verklempt. I’ll begin the chat in  few minutes, after I take a breather and order lunch. Your patience is appreciated.

Xolo: How much do you think Syndergaard might bouce back by simply getting away from the Mets?

Jay Jaffe: Given the state of their wretched defense, which ranks last in the NL in UZR and Defensive Efficiency, quite a bit. For one thing, he’s got a 3.98 FIP compared to a 4.68 ERA, and additionally has received below-average pitch framing. For another, the atmosphere in that clubhouse may well be a factor, particularly considering the recent change in pitching coaches. I’d imagine he pitches much better if he changes scenery, and I do think that if the Mets commit to dealing him, he would be the deadline’s top target, ahead of Bumgarner.

Dave from Modesto: I apologize if this seems combative, but why did you feel the need to bring up “service time shenanigans” in the first sentence of your article about the Home Run Derby? And do you legitimately feel that the only reason Alonso wasn’t promoted last season was service time concerns? (defense, playing time available given other guys on the roster, 40-man concerns played no role?)

Jay Jaffe: Major League Baseball and its teams use the All-Star week festivities to highlight the product they’re offering. I think a marquee event during which people are taking stock of the sport most pressing issues — the CBA, the home run tide, etc — is a perfect time to highlight its efforts to undermine its own product. And no, I don’t believe there’s any other credible explanation for Alonso’s belated arrival outside of financial ones, given that he’s proven to be defensively adequate.

J: Highly recommend Xifu over on Livingston and Nevins for lunch. Don’t think they deliver but it’s like $5 for a huge spicy and sour soup with 10 dumplings.

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL, Scout is napping nearby and I’m back from a week on the road.

Kiley McDaniel: we have lots of futures game thoughts coming soon, including high speed video of every pitcher, a review podcast and updates to our rankings from futures game observations

Kiley McDaniel: the most interesting pitch in slo-mo was the changeup/screwball of Grayson Rodriguez of the Orioles, as seen in this tweet:

Kiley McDaniel: and also I just saw college Team USA so we’ve got a much better idea of the 2020 and beyond draft classes now, so any questions about specific rankings can likely be fielded by THE BOARD: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

Kiley McDaniel: to your questions:

Charles: When is the top 50 most valuable trade chips coming out?

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from North Carolina! Following around college Team USA and the Cubans for a few more days before I head to Cleveland for the Futures Game and our FG live event

Kiley McDaniel: some details on the saturday event, if you’d like to attend: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/announcing-the-fangraphs-all-s…

Kiley McDaniel: here our J2 coverage links in one tweet:

Kiley McDaniel: the J2 edition of THE BOARD has confirmed, non VZ bonuses and the minor league version has all 35+ connected players (even if they haven’t signed yet) added to team lists

Kiley McDaniel: including Jasson Dominguez at 61 overall and 1st on the NYY list

Kiley McDaniel: lastly, we have some fun stuff planned with the high speed video and Eric has seen Greinke, deGrom and Kershaw, so here’s his article trying to figure out other guys that do stuff similarly to Kershaw using the video: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-find-some-clayton-kershaws-to-scale/

Meg Rowley: Hello all, and welcome to the chat.

Meg Rowley: A few bits of housekeeping before we kick off.

Meg Rowley: Tickets are still available for our Cleveland event, but they are going fast.

Meg Rowley: They can be purchased here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/fangraphs-cleveland-all-star-e…

Meg Rowley: It should be a very fun time, and someone (read: Kiley) is likely to say something goofy, so if you’re in the area, join us!

Meg Rowley: We will sell tickets at the door. Those sales will be cash only.

Dan Szymborski: CHAT IS HERE

Justin: What does a fair trade for Felipe Vazquez from, say, the Dodgers look like?

Gub Gub: Where’s the beef?

Dan Szymborski: Oops, scroll

IsIt2020Yet?: Huntington says no way they’re trading Vazquez. With this core looking at best like a .550 team, why the heck not? Who cares if he’s still closing a handful of games for a middling team in four years?

Dan Szymborski: They probably should. While I wasn’t the least bit crazy about the Archer trade, my belief was for it to work out, it had to mean that they were going to double-down and finally adopt a win-now priority in the offseason.

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey, everyone. Only link I’ll press upon you this morning will be our July 2 stuff. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/july-2-international-amateur-p…

Lilith: Should I be worried about Trammell? He seems to have lost all of his power over the past year. I heard a rumor that he changed his swing? Is that true?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t worry about it. I don’t think he’ll ever hit for significant power, it’ll be an OBP/defense thing.

John Coppolella : What chance do you see of Kevin Maitan ever tapping into his (once) immense potential?

Eric A Longenhagen: maybe 5%? If he were a junior college prospect he’d probably be a 400k sort. Still a prospect, and it’s important to look at him with the context of his amateur reports, but his career probably died when some combination of the player and Braves let his body get out of control.

Brandon J: What do you make of Josiah Gray? Could you see him surpassing Jeter Downs as the better prospect of the Dodgers/Reds trade?

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon folks, and welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat. I’m back from a (mostly) restful vacation on Cape Cod, and today I’ve got a deep dive into the soaring home run rates; I think we’ve reached the point of “Too Many Homers” https://blogs.fangraphs.com/weve-reached-the-point-of-too-many-homers/

I Won a Phone: How come FG on mobile is such a spammy wasteland?

Jay Jaffe: I have no idea because I never encounter this, as I get to sign into my account. I know that if you become a member, you get an ad-free annual membership (https://plus.fangraphs.com/product/fangraphs-membership/), and if your woes are happening even with that going on, well — we’ve got something that needs fixing.

Cove Dweller: Do you think that MadBum gets Jack Morris-like consideration for the Hall?

Jay Jaffe: I think he’s going to have to pitch well for a long time for that to happen, and right now, given that he’s staring a third straight season with fewer than 10 wins (yawn) in the face, with a set of peripherals that have generally been moving in the wrong direction for years, I have a hard time imagining him getting the bulk numbers on which to base such a case that would obviously play up given his postseason accomplishments.

Ryan: Hi Jay, thanks for the chat. When you’re looking at historical stats, how do you decide what date cutoffs to use? I’m looking at team records following a loss using baseball-reference data, and I was thinking only looking at seasons from 1900-present day would make sense- thoughts?

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Starting a little early and will run a bit shorter today since I’m tightly scheduled on my last day before I head to Florida for the MLB PDP event, my first of summer showcase season

Kiley McDaniel: As always, all our content and the graduation tracker are here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/

Kiley McDaniel: and THE BOARD with all our real-time rankings of every non-big-league baseball player on Earth of consequence is here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

Kiley McDaniel: and the big content this week is the unveiling of the J2 Board, with a preview and links to everything here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/july-2-international-amateur-p…

Kiley McDaniel: to your questions:

Greg: I think you said last week 65% chance Matt Allan signs. Where would you put that percentage now?

Meg Rowley: Hello all, and welcome to the chat.

Meg Rowley: It is nice to be back after a little vacation break.

Richard L: Hi Meg,

Billy Beane: Hi Meg.

Meg Rowley: Hi there.

Tim I: Hi Meg, 12 tm 5×5 standard: Moncada for Nola straight up? I can afford to trade offense and need SP. Thanks,