It’s Valentine’s Day, and instead of being out on the town with your beloved, you’re sitting on the sofa bingewatching the latest installment of a streaming entertainment institution. Not the new season of Love is Blind; the new season of college baseball.
Baseball is like football and basketball, in that a large part of the appeal of the college game is its abundance. Not every game is worth watching, but with some 300 Division I schools to choose from, there’s a good chance that somewhere out there, there’s a close game in the bottom of the ninth, or a pitchers’ duel between top prospects, or a rivalry matchup with postseason implications. It’s borderline-impossible to remember the names of all 300 teams, much less any useful information about them. So in the interest of efficiency, here are seven schools I’ll have my eye on this season, because I think they’ll have an outsize influence on the shape of this season as a whole.
Oregon State
I’m not going to say this is the most excited I’ve ever been for a college team, ever. But it’s the most excited I’ve been for a college team without multiple contenders for the no. 1 overall pick, like the Kumar Rocker/Jack Leiter Vandy team, or Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews at LSU. Read the rest of this entry »
Yesterday, I covered some of the Midwest prep players from this recent draft class who I was able to see in person several times over the past couple of years. This set of notes will cover some recent college draftees (from both four-year programs and junior colleges) who I caught this year in Kansas and Oklahoma.
Cranton will turn 24 years old in October and is a nearly finished product who can be expected to move through the minor leagues quickly. He has a rangy 6-foot-3 frame and throws from a high arm slot, and there’s violent effort in every pitch. His fastball sat 95-98 mph in most of my looks and touched triple digits a couple of times throughout the year. Cranton doesn’t create much extension, but he still creates plus riding action on his four-seamer because of how well he backspins it, and he’s fully capable of bullying hitters in the zone. At its best, his upper-80s slider is a hard, two-plane breaker with late enough action to generate above-average chase rates, but Cranton also has a tendency to lose the hard vertical finish that is most responsible for it generating whiffs. Cranton is a power-over-precision single-inning relief type who signed a below-slot $50,000 deal. He will likely be assigned to one of Seattle’s A-ball affiliates, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he were to finish the regular season at Double-A or higher.
The headliner of Davis’ three-pitch mix is a changeup that I’d argue warrants a 70 future grade. It ran a 51% in-zone whiff rate this year and has late diving action in the low-80s that he sells especially well with his arm speed. Davis was in the Sooners’ rotation this season, sitting 90-93 mph with his fastball and touching 95 when he emptied the tank. He throws from a high slot and hides the ball well with his online arm path, which allows his fastball to sneak by hitters, especially when it’s located up in the zone. His breaking ball is a low-80s slider that will show traditional two-plane action and at times incorporate more depth. It’s an offering that profiles to play much better against same-sided hitters; Davis will likely need to lean much more heavily on his changeup against right-handed batters. Davis trimmed his walk rate to 10.5% in 2024 after running a 15% walk rate in Sam Houston State’s bullpen the year prior. His command will need to take another large developmental step forward for him to be viable as a starter at the big league level, but we could be looking at a solid multi-inning relief type whose stuff ticks up in shorter bursts, enabling him to move quickly through the minors. Davis and the Cardinals agreed to a deal for the slot amount of $485,700. He’ll be an arm to watch in the Cardinals system, especially with that changeup.
Neighbors has a medium frame with limited physical projection. He throws from a high slot and has a vertically oriented arsenal in his four-seam fastball and curveball. His heater sat 93-96 mph and touched 98 each time I saw him this spring. Neighbors’ fastball displays plus riding life when it’s in the upper half of the zone, but he worked at the knees seemingly as often as he attempted to elevate, and the life on the pitch isn’t as explosive down there. Neighbors’ curveball is a 81-85 mph 12-to-6 downer with sharp break that plays well against left-handed hitters because of the vertical nature of its shape. He’ll also mix in a short cutter at 88-91 mph to give hitters another look. In 2023, Neighbors struck out an absurd 46.7% of the batters he faced, while this year he struck out 36.5%. Neighbors’ walk rate ticked up to 11.4% this year after he limited free passes (8.7% walk rate) in 2023. Neighbors’ control has always significantly outpaced his command, and if he’s able to keep the walks in check, he could move quickly through the minors. He has the potential to be a high-leverage type. He agreed to a $600,000 deal, slightly below slot.
Shojinaga was a draft-eligible sophomore who I’ve had a front seat to for the past couple of years as he’s played at Kansas. Shojinaga has advanced bat-to-ball ability, which is reflected in his sub-10% in-zone whiff rate this season, and he posted a .335/.402/.485 slash on the year. He projects for well-below-average game power, but his line drive and gap-to-gap approach will produce a significant number of doubles.
The question with Shojinaga is and has always been where he’s going to play on the defensive side of the ball. The Phillies announced him as a catcher, which is the position he played in high school and in fall scrimmages each year that he was on campus, but it’s always been pretty shaky back there and he only appeared at catcher in one game in his two years of college ball. He has average arm strength, and both his receiving and blocking ability currently grade out as well below average. He’s primarily alternated between second and third base, but the hands and footwork is going to have to take a big step forward in pro ball for him to be a passable defender at either spot.
Shojinaga’s hit tool gives him a shot, but he’ll need to find a way to become a passable defender at a position that can support his below-average power profile. I don’t think that will be at his announced position of catcher. Shojinaga recently signed with the Phillies for $257,500.
Powell won the 2024 National Junior College Player of the Year award at Seminole State, a longtime Oklahoma junior college powerhouse. In his 253 plate appearances this spring, Powell had 56 total extra-base hits (1.088 SLG), including 32 homers, and hit .502 on the season while playing shortstop for the Trojans. Powell is a premium athlete who still has significant frame-based projection and he’s going to a club that has arguably had the most success in plucking under-the-radar Midwest junior college players who later find their way to the big leagues.
Powell was drafted as a shortstop, but in my in-person looks at him this year, I thought he profiled better in center field because his actions at short can occasionally get rigid and his hands aren’t plus. Powell has an aggressive approach at the plate and there will be some swing-and-miss in his game, but the pure athleticism and bat speed he brings to the table are a good foundation to build on. Regardless of where he ends up on the defensive spectrum, you’re buying the bat and overall athleticism with Powell. The comp I have on him as he enters pro ball involves another former prospect from the state of Oklahoma: Lane Adams. The Astros and Powell agreed on an over-slot bonus of $422,500. He’s a high-variance position player to watch in Houston’s system
Jones walked (55) more than he struck out (51) for Kansas State in 2024 on his way to posting a .303/.442/.500 line as the Wildcats’ everyday center fielder. Jones has a very flat bat path through the zone, but also whips the bat through the zone with above-average bat speed. Barring a major swing change, Jones’ path and approach aren’t going to yield much home run value, but his current cut is very conducive to spraying hard line drives to all fields.
Jones shouldn’t have any problem staying in center field long-term, as his plus speed allows him to cover both gaps even though he has a tendency to set up very deep in center. Despite not being a highly projectable prospect, Jones’ ability to both stick at a premium position and make himself a pesky out in the batter’s box gives him a viable path to being a role player. The Yankees inked Jones to a $150,000 signing bonus and he’ll likely join an affiliate soon.
Salinas is a left-handed pitcher with plus athleticism out of Cowley College, a JUCO in Kansas that has produced the likes of Travis Hafner, Junior Spivey, and Trevor Rosenthal. Salinas is a very good athlete with a lean frame. Notable hip-shoulder separation in his delivery really allows you to project on his fastball velocity. His fastball sat 88-91 mph, and depending on which start you caught this spring, you could see him touching 93 or 87 mph on either side of that range. Salinas’ curveball is the biggest eye-catcher in the mix. It ranges between 70-77 mph, has an extraordinary amount of depth, and varies between a 12-to-6 and 1-to-7 shape. He also threw a rarely used changeup at 77-81 that tended to lack notable action.
Salinas’ command was usually well below average and unless something drastically improves with that, he’s almost certainly destined for a relief role. There’s more meat on the bone when it comes to Salinas’ frame and the velocity on his fastball. He’s a fun arm for the O’s development team, but they have a tall task in front of them in terms of improving Salinas’ strike throwing ability. Salinas and the Orioles reached agreement on a $150,000 bonus prior to the signing deadline.
Last season, the college baseball game of the year was the national semifinal matchup between LSU and Wake Forest. It pitted the first two pitchers chosen in that year’s draft — Paul Skenes and Rhett Lowder — against one another, with a berth in the College World Series final on the line. The two star right-handers obliged, combining to strike out 15 while allowing just eight baserunners over 15 scoreless innings. The game remained tied, 0-0, until the very final at-bat, when Tommy White hit a two-run walk-off home run to win it for LSU.
The closest thing we had to that kind of pitching matchup in 2024 came in the losers’ bracket of the Greenville Regional. The top four college starters in this year’s draft — Wake Forest’s Chase Burns, Arkansas’ Hagen Smith, East Carolina’s Trey Yesavage, and Iowa’s Brody Brecht — all played in different conferences. The only time any of those four faced each other was in a win-or-go-home matchup between ECU and Wake on the second day of the NCAA Tournament, and the contours of this game were somewhat different as well. Read the rest of this entry »
When I was in Phoenix for the Draft Combine, I kept running into Seaver King’s friends.
“That’s my homie,” said JJ Wetherholt, the West Virginia infielder and presumptive top-five pick. He and King played together on Team USA last summer, and Wetherholt said King was the person he’d been looking forward to seeing most at the Combine. “He’s a great kid. He’ll be funny. Good dude.”
“Oh hi, Tyson,” I said, slightly startled. “We were just talking about you.”
Tyson Neighbors, the star closer from Kansas State, had appeared at my shoulder suddenly and completely noiselessly. He was shorter than the other pitchers I’d interviewed at the draft combine, not much taller than six-foot, but with the kind of upside-down triangle body you’d expect from someone who’d been a standout linebacker in high school. In 2023, his sophomore season at K-State, Neighbors had struck out nearly two batters an inning and won All-America honors for holding opponents to a .135 batting average. He’s one of the top reliever prospects in this year’s draft.
All of that made the expression on his face hilariously incongruous. He was staring at Eric Longenhagen’s laptop, wearing the exact mix of curiosity and excitement you’ll see from a kindergartener who’s about to ask if you have games on your phone. Read the rest of this entry »
The two of us were part of the FanGraphs contingent in Phoenix for the 2024 MLB Draft Combine last week. The first half of the week consisted of showcase events like batting practice, infield and outfield drills, and a game featuring many of the high schoolers in attendance. The back half of the week consisted of athletic and biometric testing, including the 30-yard dash.
Below are scouting notes for some of our favorite hitters from the event. Major League Baseball distributes a list of the top performers in several of the athletic tests to the media, but doesn’t share complete data. Eric recorded the electronic 30-yard times by hand as they unfolded; at the very bottom of the post is a complete list of those times, save for the couple he missed while he was schmoozing, eating, etc. (Update: Arnold Abernathy’s time has been added) We’ll have a post highlighting Combine pitchers, as well as a draft ranking update, to follow. The players aren’t listed in any particular order; our initials appear at the end of the blurbs we wrote. Read the rest of this entry »
JJ Wetherholt is in an unusual position. A third-year finance student at West Virginia University with an interest in math who once considered going to law school, Wetherholt is leaving college early, and says his parents couldn’t be more proud.
As prestigious and lucrative as a career in law or finance can be, neither holds a candle to professional baseball, and Wetherholt is one of the leading candidates for the top pick in this year’s draft.
In addition to academic All-Big 12 and All-American honors, Wetherholt hit .373/.471/.632 with 29 homers, 56 stolen bases, and more walks than strikeouts in 143 career college games. A compact, sinewy 5-foot-10, 190-pound second baseman with great bat speed from an open, left-handed stance, he’s a lock to become WVU’s highest draft pick ever. (The record is currently 11th overall, shared by Alek Manoah in 2019 and right-hander Chris Enochs in 1997.) Read the rest of this entry »
On Saturday afternoon, I sat down to watch the most important baseball game of the weekend: The Greenville Regional elimination game between East Carolina and Wake Forest. This game not only had NCAA Tournament survival on the line, it featured two of the top three college pitching prospects in this draft class: Wake’s Chase Burns and ECU’s Trey Yesavage.
In many respects, it mirrored last year’s College World Series semifinal between Wake and LSU, in which the two starting pitchers — Paul Skenes and Rhett Lowder — were the first two arms off the board in the draft. That was, for my money, the best baseball game played anywhere in 2023 and one of the best College World Series games of all time. Skenes and Lowder combined to allow five hits over 15 scoreless innings, and the only runs of the game were scored on the final play, a walk-off home run in the bottom of the 11th.
That was Mad Max: Fury Road, a bombastic, thrilling, and yet obviously virtuosic thriller that could not have been improved. ECU-Wake was more like Licorice Pizza: Clearly everyone involved was good at their craft, but the end result was weird and meandering and frustrating. Burns was a little disappointing; Yesavage was great, but after he was lifted in the eighth inning, ECU coach Cliff Godwin used seven pitchers to get the last five outs. In the meantime, Wake scored five runs in the top of the ninth to take a 6-4 lead, after which ECU struck back with five singles in the bottom of the ninth to walk it off. Read the rest of this entry »
If you read the 2,300-word NCAA Tournament preview from yesterday, you probably noticed that it only included eight regionals and 32 teams, which is only half the field. That’d leave newcomers woefully unprepared for the bacchanal of college baseball that is to come. So join me for a quick look at the other 32 teams that will set out to claim a spot in the Men’s College World Series. Remember: The goal is 150 words per region. Let’s see if I can do it this time. Read the rest of this entry »
I’ll start by conceding that one of the greatest strengths of college baseball, as an entertainment product, can sometimes be a weakness: There’s just so much of it. On the one hand, the first week of the NCAA Tournament is a baseball sicko’s paradise, with uninterrupted wall-to-wall action from noon to midnight all weekend, and stretching into Monday.
If one game is out of hand early, fear not — you can switch to any one of about six different streams on ESPN+, or you can camp out watching Squeeze Play and chant “Quad Box! Quad Box!” at your TV until Mike Rooney morphs into a kaiju and lays waste to downtown Omaha. Read the rest of this entry »
