Archive for Daily Graphings

The rumblings have started. On Tuesday night in the unincorporated territory north of Atlanta, the American League clawed its way back from a 6-0 deficit in the late innings, wrestling the All-Star Game into its first ever swing-off. The problem with the swing-off, the reason for the rumblings, was apparent even before the ninth inning ended: It might be too much fun. Too much fun could result in disaster, an eruption that would reshape the landscape of baseball for all time to come, killing extra innings once and for all and replacing them with something that smacked suspiciously of soccer.

The protectors of baseball’s sovereign dignity chewed their fingernails to the quick as Brent Rooker readied himself in the batter’s box to the opening strains of “Hotel California.” They wailed when he launched two baseballs into the left-center field seats, thrilling everyone with eyes to see or ears to hear. Steven Kwan leapt into the air with the innocent delight of a child. It was a dark omen.

“Will no one think of the children?” moaned the traditionalists when Kyle Stowers punched one over the hulking brick wall in right center and jubilation reigned near Atlanta. Their fear reached a crescendo when Kyle Schwarber duck-walked into the box, leaned back, and shook his bat in all directions as if to ward off any evil, defense-minded spirits. Schwarber, who has spent his entire career smacking monstrous, momentous home runs as casually as the rest of us put our socks on in the morning, had the potential to alter baseball’s future, cementing the swing-off as a consummation devoutly to be wished, a future too fun to avoid. If any player could turn his three swings into three signature homers, it was Schwarber. Read the rest of this entry »

In one sense, we are halfway through the season. In another sense, though, we are not — we are 59.5% of the way through the season, if you count up all the games played. Regardless! There’s no baseball today, so what better time to take stock of the general state of the sport?

To that end, I’ve identified seven trends that have defined the 2025 season to this point. In no particular order:

Changeups are going wild

You may have heard at some point that this was the year of the kick change. All through March and April, local and national writers alike regaled the baseball reading audience with stories of this mythical new pitch, destined to revolutionize pitching as we know it. Read the rest of this entry »

With the draft and the All-Star Game out of the way, the next waypoint on the baseball calendar is the trade deadline. In other words, it is officially Trade Season. And the Royals and Pirates kicked it off on Wednesday morning with the first deadline deal. I got a little excited; sometimes, when the Royals and Pirates make a deal, you end up with Sir Francis Drake’s invaluable contribution to the defeat of the Spanish Armada at the Battle of Gravelines in 1588.

This was not one of those times. Kansas City sent minor league infielder Cam Devanney to Pittsburgh in exchange for Adam Frazier. Read the rest of this entry »

James Tibbs III might best be described as a hitting rat. Drafted 13th overall last year by the San Francisco Giants out of Florida State University, and subsequently shipped to the Boston Red Sox in last month’s blockbuster Rafael Devers deal, the 22-year-old outfielder lives and breathes baseball — particularly the part that entails standing in the batter’s box. From a young age, Tibbs has doggedly worked on honing his left-handed stroke.

An Atlanta native who attended high school in nearby Marietta, Tibbs excelled collegiately, slashing .338/.462/.685 over three seasons at the ACC school, with a 28-homer junior campaign further enhancing his profile. And he’s continued to hit in pro ball. He played just 26 games after inking a contract last summer, and his results were mixed; he posted a 153 wRC+ in nine games (42 plate appearances) in A-ball, earned a promotion, then went cold in High-A. Now in his first full professional season, he’s back to doing what he does best: bashing baseballs. Tibbs put up a 132 wRC+ with a dozen home runs in High-A prior to the trade, and since joining his new organization, he has logged a 107 wRC+ over 86 plate appearances while acclimating to Double-A.

Ranked 14th in what Eric Longenhagen called “the best farm system in baseball” when our Red Sox Top Prospects list was published in late June, the promising young outfielder was assigned a 45 FV, with raw power graded as his best hitting tool. Tibbs sat down to talk hitting prior to a recent Portland Sea Dogs home game.

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David Laurila: You were drafted one year ago. Are you the same hitter now, or has anything meaningfully changed?

James Tibbs III: “I’m pretty much the same. It’s what’s gotten me this far, and I’ve kind of tried to replicate that as much as possible. I’ve never been one to try to make changes unless it’s absolutely necessary, because I play off of feel. I’ll make adjustments based off of that feel, but I’m doing it trying to get back to my base. My base has been pretty consistent for the last… three years? Two years? Something like that.

“I feel like I cover the plate well. I feel like I can see the ball well from where I stand and how I load. I feel like I use my body well in order to get to the spots that I can’t necessarily cover. So yeah, it’s been pretty consistent for the most part.”

Laurila: How would you describe your approach at the plate? Read the rest of this entry »

When you think of Garrett Crochet, you probably think of a lanky lefty flinging filthy fastballs past flummoxed hitters. Nearly half the pitches Crochet threw last year were four-seamers. The pitch averaged 97.1 mph, and according to Statcast’s run values, it was worth 21 runs, making it the fifth-most valuable pitch in the game, trailing estimable offerings like Emmanuel Clase’s cutter and the sliders of Dylan Cease and Chris Sale. Crochet’s other pitches were worth a combined -2 runs. Although he ran a 3.58 ERA while pitching in front of a porous White Sox defense, the four-seamer led him to a 2.38 xFIP and 2.75 DRA. Both marks were the best among all starters. Crochet has kept right on rolling in 2025. He’s running a 2.23 ERA with a 2.40 FIP, and his 4.3 WAR ranks second among all pitchers. It would be easy to glance at the top line numbers and assume that Crochet is the same pitcher he was last year, just in front of a better defense. But there have been some subtle changes under the hood, and his relationship with his fastball now looks very different.

When a trade brought Crochet to Boston in December, the reasonable assumption was that he’d back off the four-seamer at least a little. Under Craig Breslow and Andrew Bailey, the Red Sox became the most fastball-averse team in the history of the game, throwing four-seamers and sinkers just 36.8% of the time in 2024. No one expected Crochet to ditch one of the game’s greatest weapons, but it stood to reason that the Red Sox might tweak his usage just a little bit in favor of his sweeper, his cutter, and his new sinker, all of which looked like excellent pitches. Read the rest of this entry »

Longtime readers of this site might remember my tremendous affection for Pittsburgh reliever David Bednar. It’s OK if you don’t; I last wrote about him in May 2023, which is so long ago the Pirates were in first place at the time. Bednar was a rock back in the day, a top-class closer for a team that frequently disappointed. But from 2021 to the end of 2023, he was terrific: ERAs in the low-to-mid-2.00s every year, with strikeout rates in the high 20s and low 30s.

That trend stopped abruptly in 2024. Again, this wasn’t front-page national news; wise fans had by this point learned to ignore any Pirate shorter than 6-foot-6. But Bednar posted a 5.77 ERA, blew a career-worst seven saves, and saw his strikeout rate plummet to 22.1%, more than 10 percentage points from where it was two years earlier.

A sad development, but not an unforeseeable one. Relief pitchers, even good ones, even reliable ones, have a shorter shelf life than most condiments. But he’s back this year; in 36 games, Bednar has a 2.53 ERA, a career-high 34.6% strikeout rate, a 6.9% walk rate (his lowest since he joined the Pirates five years ago), a 2.02 FIP, and 13 saves out of 13 opportunities. Read the rest of this entry »

Hunter Goodman will represent the Colorado Rockies in tonight’s All-Star Game, and while he plays for the worst team in the majors, he is by no means a quota-filling selection. The 25-year-old catcher is slashing .277/.325/.517 with 17 home runs and a 120 wRC+ over 345 plate appearances. Moreover, his 52 RBI are the most among senior circuit backstops.

Three months before his All-Star selection, he was featured here at FanGraphs in an article titled Hunter Goodman Isn’t Choosy. When my colleague Davy Andrews penned the April 9 piece, Goodman had seen 63 pitches outside of the strike zone and swung at 33 of them, giving him a 54.1% chase rate. He also had a 66.1% overall swing rate.

As Davy wrote, “This is about as extreme as baseball gets.”

I brought up the article when the Rockies visited Fenway Park last week, and Goodman’s response was gold. Having read my colleague’s column, the young slugger replied, “That guy better not show up here.” He was kidding — the words came with a smile — after which he turned serious.

“Honestly, I was hitting pretty well at the time,” recalled Goodman, who then had a wRC+ just north of league average. “I was getting a lot of pitches to hit. But yes, I was swinging a lot. Starting the year, I was trying to be aggressive and trying to see where I was at. It’s like everything else; the more you get going, the more things start to calm down. Over the season, it’s gotten better. Being in the lineup every day has helped a lot with my timing.” Read the rest of this entry »

Happy Derby Day! At 8:00 p.m. tonight at Truist Park in Cobb County, Georgia, some of the largest human beings Major League Baseball has to offer will be hitting some of the longest home runs imaginable, and we get to watch. The cool kids will be tuned into the Statcast broadcast on ESPN 2, hosted by Kevin Brown (the current Orioles play-by-play man, not the former Orioles pitcher), Jessica Mendoza, and erstwhile FanGraphs contributor Mike Petriello. Petriello told me that he spent Friday crunching first-half stats and Derby results from 2016 to 2024 in order to create a prediction model, so if you want to see a baseball nerd being baseball nerdy on national television, make sure you catch the opening.

Although we never get to see all the stars we’d like in the Derby, this year may feel particularly bereft. We are missing out on A-listers like Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, and Derby legends like Pete Alonso and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. We’re also going to be without most of the most prolific home run hitters of the season. Cal Raleigh and James Wood are the only participants who rank within the top nine in home runs. Only half the Derby contestants are even in the top 30. We have no repeat participants from the 2024 season. In fact, Matt Olson is the only one who has ever participated in the Derby before, and he lost in the first round in 2021. On the other hand, Raleigh leads the majors in home runs, and based purely on how far and hard these eight sluggers hit the ball, we may well have the most powerful field ever assembled. Read the rest of this entry »

Jose Altuve is having a Cooperstown-worthy career. Since debuting with the Houston Astros in 2011, the 35-year-old second baseman has logged 2,329 hits, including 246 home runs, while putting up a 129 wRC+ and 59.2 WAR. A nine-time All-Star who has won seven Silver Sluggers and one Gold Glove, Altuve captured MVP honors in 2017.

Turn the clock back to 2008, and the 5-foot-6 Puerto Cabello, Venezuela native was 18 years old and playing stateside for the first time. His manager with the rookie-level Greeneville Astros was Rodney Linares.

I recently asked the now-Tampa Bay Rays bench coach for his memories of the then-teenaged prospect.

“One guy that doesn’t get a lot of credit for Altuve is [current St. Louis Cardinals first base coach] Stubby Clapp, who’d been my hitting coach the year before,” Linares told me. “He always talked about Altuve, because he’d had him in extended spring. He was like, ‘You’ve got to watch this kid; this kid is going to be really good.’ I used to tell Stubby, ‘You think that because you’re small and played in the big leagues, anybody who is small can play.’”

Linares recalls the Astros organization’s wanting him to play 20-year-old Albert Cartwright at second, prompting him to tell Altuve ‘Go to short, go to third, go to left field. I’m going to make sure that you get your at-bats.” Read the rest of this entry »

Toward the end of May, I wrote about Pete Crow-Armstrong’s crimes of passion. When the Cubs win a game on a walk-off, Crow-Armstrong isn’t just the first one out onto the field to celebrate. He’s out on the field before the winning run has even scored. The game is still in progress, the ball is still in play, but there’s Crow-Armstrong sprinting across the third base line like a heat-seeking missile, breaking the rules and pulling the hero who just knocked in the game-winning run into the tightest hug imaginable. It’s a pattern; a jubilant, sensuous, illegal-but-not-actionable pattern that plays out over the rising strains of “Go Cubs Go.”

Well, in the past five weeks, the Cubs have walked off their opponents two more times, and Crow-Armstrong has not disappointed. In the bottom of the 10th inning on June 15, Ian Happ walked off the Pirates with a line drive single into right field. Crow-Armstrong was on deck at the time, which meant that he was busy warming up and thinking about hitting. It also meant that he was right next to home plate, so he ended up shadowing Vidal Bruján as he scored the winning run, and only then changing course and sprinting out onto the field to congratulate Happ. For these reasons, he didn’t actually enter the field of play until nearly a full second after the game had ended, but don’t worry. He was still the first Cub on the field and the first to wrap Happ in a big, shaggy hug. His love was so powerful that the energy surge temporarily overloaded the Marquee Sports broadcast system. Read the rest of this entry »