Archive for Daily Graphings

Boy, this whole Kris Bryant situation sure got heated fast, right?! On the off-chance you haven’t been keeping tabs on the MLB’s most philosophically layered spring training headline, I recommend reading Mike’s proposed rule changes; Nathaniel’s examination of what the Players’ Association could do next; and Jason Wojciechowski’s appeal to ethical business practices over at Beaneball.

Alas, this is not the first time a bright new prospect has been sent to the minors under, ahem, dubious circumstances. At this moment, Bryant’s saga cannot be discussed without heavy reliance on hypotheticals: questions of how his trip/sentence to Iowa will affect the Cubs’ 2015 season, the Cubs’ 2021 season, or Bryant’s lifetime earning potential are all, ultimately, unknowns. But we can learn from history and see how prior service-time-oriented decisions have played out for other teams and their marquee prospects. Up first: the consensus greatest player in the game.
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Signing a pitcher to a long-term extension when that pitcher has completed just one season in Major League Baseball and had elbow troubles in that one season is not an ideal scenario for a franchise. For the Royals, who have seen the best young arms of this generation lost to injury and a failure to develop, locking up Yordano Ventura to a five-year deal guaranteeing $23 million covering all of his arbitration seasons with two options potentially covering his first two years of free agency, the move is a necessary risk.

Signed for $28,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2008, Ventura has a slight frame and an electric fastball leads to two unfortunate conclusions, one unfair and one undetermined. Like fellow countryman Carlos Martinez, Ventura has drawn comparisons to all-time great Pedro Martinez, who pumped a great array of pitches including a fantastic fastball over a long, Hall of Fame career. The other conclusion, that Ventura will eventually have to go to the bullpen, is perhaps a more realistic option given the impossibility of reaching Pedro, but is mostly unfair until he has actually failed as a starter.

Ventura’s contract lines up nicely with the last three extension signed by players with under two years of service time.
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The least interesting thing about recovering from a shoulder injury might be trying to figure out how it happened. It happened, and life has to move on. In Sean Doolittle’s case, it might — might! — have happened while he was taking anti-inflammatories for his oblique late last year, meaning the pain was “slightly masked” by the drugs as the pitcher put it. Who knows.

The best you can do is strengthen the muscles around the injury and work your way slowly back to health. You can’t just start throwing. “Your instinct is to open it up as soon as you get a ball in your hand,” said Doolittle before the A’s first game this season. So the team keeps the ball away from you for a bit.

Kyle Boddy, who founded pitching development complex Driveline Baseball, isn’t surprised to hear Doolittle talk about that instinct to throw hard. “Guys literally have no idea how to play catch,” Boddy said. “They line up from 45 feet and start throwing like 65-70 MPH. This is because many pro organizations give you ten minutes to throw before taking the field, which is ultimately pretty injurious and limiting to the arm.”

So before the throwing come the strengthening exercises. These might be familiar to any pitcher, but Doolittle says he’s just been doing them more often, in more variations, with more sets.

Many involve resistance bands and shoulder and arm movements against the resistance created by those bands. Other exercises have him holding the bands in static positions as a trainer pushes in different directions on his arm. Each time his body attempts to bring the hand back to that static position, a different small muscle is activated. Even without a resistance bad at home, you can test the theory by balancing on one foot with your eyes shut — notice all the little muscles in your legs and torso that work hard to keep you upright.

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The Red Sox have played one game this season. Seems like it’s time to check in on Dustin Pedroia. Before you go, assuming the rest of this is going to be stupid, at the very end there is a poll. Internet readers love polls. Please vote in it only after you at least glance over what’s in between. So: Dustin Pedroia has two home runs!

Already, that says something. Pedroia, last year, hit seven home runs. He went deep twice on Monday against the ace to whom the Red Sox have been most frequently linked in trade rumors. Now, Pedroia wasn’t the only Boston player to go deep, so, maybe it was just one of those days. Yet it wasn’t just that Pedroia homered. It was also how Pedroia homered. His homers looked like classic Pedroia homers, and that’s just the thing.

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The Red Sox clearly have a thing for Justin Masterson. They drafted him with their second-round pick in 2006, then developed him into one of their best young pitching prospects before the Indians demanded him as part of the Victor Martinez trade in 2009. This winter, when he was finally a free agent after spending six years in Cleveland, the Red Sox took the opportunity to bring him back to Boston, signing him to a $9.5 million contract for 2015 despite the fact that he posted a 5.88 ERA last season.

The organization’s affinity for Masterson’s skillset is noteworthy, because this week, the Red Sox signed Rick Porcello to a four year, $82.5 million contract extension on the bet that Porcello is essentially a younger version of this same type of pitcher.

First, let’s do a quick comparison. Here are Masterson and Porcello’s numbers from their age-23 through age-25 seasons, which in Porcello’s case covers the last three years.

Both Porcello and Masterson were pitch-to-contact groundball hurlers, with Masterson getting a few more grounders and strikeouts at the expense of a walk rate that was significantly higher than what Porcello has posted. They’re not identical, but they’re cut from the same cloth, and heading into their mid-20s, the results were quite similar. By ERA, both were roughly league average starters, though metrics that attempt to eliminate defensive performance from the picture both thought they were significantly above average, with Porcello being slightly ahead of Masterson at the same point in their careers.

Read the rest on Just a Bit Outside.

You already know what I’m going to say — this early in the year, we don’t really care about results so much as we care about what goes into those results. Maybe that’s a new pitch, or a new batting stance, or our first look at a guy trying to come back from an injury. Sometimes, though, you can’t help but start with the results. In Mat Latos‘ Miami debut, there were certainly results:

So that’s pretty bad, and generally you’d let it go by as just one of those things, in the same way that no one really thinks that Cole Hamels‘ lousy first start means anything more than a very good pitcher having a very bad day. But like with the interest in seeing what kind of pitcher Masahiro Tanaka would be, there’s interest in Latos. After several good seasons, his 2014 was ruined by left knee surgery and right elbow soreness, after which the Reds flipped him to to a Miami team that plans on contending for a decent enough pitching prospect in Anthony DeSclafani and minor league catcher Chad Wallach’s intriguing offensive profile. Read the rest of this entry »

Hanley Ramirez is a good case study for Xander Bogaerts. The early-career personalities differ – Hanley was aloof and Xander is humble – but their profiles have a lot in common. Each came up through the Red Sox system with “Wunderkind” stamped on his forehead and nascent hitting knowledge under his helmet.

A notable difference is their rookie results. Ramirez captured NL rookie-of-the-year honors after being dealt to the Marlins. Bogaerts struggled to find his stroke and, relative to expectations, bombed in Boston. Before drawing too many conclusions, consider that Hanley was 22 at the time, a full year older than his counterpart was last season.

Contextually, Bogaerts was better as a 21-year-old than Ramirez. The youngster’s 2014 numbers weren’t enthusiastic — .240/.297/.362 with 12 home runs – but they came against big-league competition. At the same age, Hanley hit .271/.335/.385 with six home runs in the Double-A Eastern League.

Back when he was a Portland Sea Dog, the 31-year-old slugger had a rudimentary approach. “I like to stay through the middle and hit the ball at the pitcher’s head,” Ramirez told me in 2004. “I like to see what they throw and then react to their pitches.”

A few weeks ago in Fort Myers, I asked him what has changed since our decade old conversation. Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s play a game. I’ll show you brief excerpts from Baseball Prospectus annual Jamie Moyer summaries, and you match them with the year. This is nothing against BP, of course. Everybody was always saying the same stuff. BP just happens to put everything in one convenient place, on Jamie Moyer’s player page. Off we go.

• “There may be no coming back from this.”
• “The end is near.”
• “He lives and dies with his control, and I expect him to be on life support by the end of his contract.”
• “As long as he keeps his control, he could pitch another three or four years at this level.”

The years, scrambled:

• 2000
• 2005
• 2001
• 1999

Go nuts! And then, when you’re finished, we can have a conversation about Jered Weaver.

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Following a stupid .451/.491/.804 performance in the Grapefruit League, the hype surrounding Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts is through the roof. Scouts are all but penciling him into July’s All-Star lineup, and some of Betts’s peers have even gone as far as to compare him to Andrew McCutchen. And wouldn’t you know it, Betts opened the 2015 season by going 2-4 with a homer and a walk on opening day. Mookie-mania is upon us.

Here at FanGraphs, we’ve been on the Betts bandwagon for a while. Carson Cistulli’s been tracking Betts since July 2013, when he made his first appearance on one of his fringe five lists. An undersized 5th round draft pick with excellent stats, Betts was exactly the type of prospect who endears himself to prospect enthusiasts whose heads are buried in spreadsheets. At that point, Betts was merely a little-known A-Baller with an unusual name.

But last year, Betts took his act to Double-A, and kept right on hitting. He put up a 177 wRC+ in two months in Double-A, and followed it up with a 158 mark in Triple-A. The 5-9 second baseman with the funny name was starting to look like a bona fide prospect, and it was happening in a hurry.

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Beating the rest of the league to the punch with a large contract extension for Rick Porcello when much better players await in free agency is not going to garner excitement or plaudits, but the Red Sox are anticipating an expensive free agent market in 2016 and providing themselves a safety net. Boston resorted to Plan B before they knew if Plan A would work, but the Red Sox can still implement Plan A and sign a big-name free agent while simultaneously providing depth for their rotation. Five years and $95 million is a lot of money for a player without a world-beating track record, but Porcello has been good and reliable and he is still just 26 years old. This contract is not all that surprising as Mike Petriello predicted a similar contract in February.

Last year, three pitchers signed extensions just a year away from free agency and one of them is apt for Porcello. Clayton Kershaw’s seven-year, $215 million contract is way too big, Charlie Morton’s three-year, $21 million contract is too light, but Homer Bailey’s six-year, $105 million contract (with an option for a seventh year) is right in the same range as Porcello. Bailey was two years older and only twice pitched over 150 innings while Porcello has exceeded that mark in six straight seasons. Bailey was coming off the better season, with around four wins in 2013, but he also received more money with greater risk of injury. According to Jeff Zimmerman’s disabled list projections, Porcello is the second most likely starter to make it through the season without a stint on the disabled list.

Even if we treat Bailey as an outlier for an extension, last year’s free agent class has a pretty close contract to Porcello’s: James Shields, who signed for four years and $72 million with the Padres. Shields has the better track record, but he’s headed into his decline years while Porcello is headed into his mid-20s. While Shields’ deal ends when he’s 36, the Red Sox have only committed to Porcello up to age-30.
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