All things considered, James Paxton had a productive season. In 19 starts comprising 96 innings, the recently turned–35-year-old left-hander fanned 101 batters, allowed 93 hits and logged a 4.50 ERA and a 4.68 FIP. The erstwhile Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees rotation mainstay put up those numbers with the Boston Red Sox between May 12 and September 1, and he did so after throwing just 1.1 innings over the past two-plus seasons. “Big Maple” underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2021, and he remained on the shelf the following year due to a lat tear incurred late in the rehab process. Factor in the truncated 2020 COVID campaign, and he’d tossed just 22.1 frames since September 2019.

Paxton, now a free agent, has been a quality pitcher when healthy. From 2017 to ’19, the hard-throwing Ladner, British Columbia native went 38–17 with a 3.54 ERA, a 3.26 FIP, and a 30.0% strikeout rate. His heater averaged 95.6 mph over that three-year span, just a few ticks over this year’s 95.3. As for next season, he expects not only to be throwing every bit as hard, but also to be close to his old self in terms of overall arsenal quality. He addressed that subject, as well as his experience returning to the mound in 2023, when I spoke to him at the end of September.

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David Laurila: You came back from Tommy John surgery. What has that experience been like in terms of your pitch quality?

James Paxton: “It’s definitely interesting coming back from it, the stuff differences [and] trying to figure out my arm again. I feel like the fastball came back, it felt really good, but the breaking stuff took some time. The cutter wasn’t the same pitch it was before Tommy John. I’m still kind of figuring that pitch out. I got to a place where it was good enough. I could use it, it just wasn’t the same as it was.”

Laurila: How has it been different?

Paxton: “I used to throw it harder. It was a shorter, harder slider, basically, and now it’s not quite as hard. I used to throw it 88–91 [mph] and now it’s like 85–87. It still has decent movement to it, but again, it’s just not quite the same pitch that it was before I got hurt. Maybe that’s something that will come back in year two. People say that your stuff isn’t really 100% back until the year after your first year back from Tommy John.” Read the rest of this entry »

Good relief is hard to find. Well, that’s not strictly true. Pretty much every team in baseball has multiple good relievers, random guys who throw 100 mph and snap off ludicrous sliders. But enough good relief pitching is hard to find, because it takes a village’s worth of relievers to get through a season, and the playoffs are even more challenging. As teams go to their bullpen earlier and earlier, they put more pressure on every arm in it, and the penalties to overworking your best few arms are harsh.

The Braves seem to understand that, because they’ve been aggressive about adding to their options this offseason. They already had Raisel Iglesias and A.J. Minter as reliable options. They gave Joe Jimenez and Pierce Johnson contract extensions that valued them like solid mid-to-late-inning options. They traded a sampler platter of former prospects for Aaron Bummer. Now they’ve added yet again by signing Reynaldo López to a three-year deal. Read the rest of this entry »

The theme of free agency so far is returning to one’s origins. A day after Aaron Nola re-upped with the Phillies, Lance Lynn signed a one-year contract with the St. Louis Cardinals, the team that drafted him in the first round in 2008. Lynn’s deal will pay him $10 million in 2024, with a 2025 club option for $11 million that comes with a $1 million buyout, and $3 million in incentives. That brings the total guarantee to $11 million and the total potential value of the contract to $24 million.

Lynn won a World Series with St. Louis as a rookie in 2011, made his first All-Star team in 2012, and in total pitched six years and nearly 1,000 innings with the club before leaving as a free agent after the 2017 season.

Much has happened since then. Read the rest of this entry »

In the few weeks following the conclusion of the World Series, with no meaningful major league games on the calendar until March, our collective attention shifts quickly to hot stove season. But as eager as we are to start slotting free agents into new rotations, bullpens, and lineups, there’s a bit of paperwork to take care of before the full extent of the winter’s class is even known. Teams have exclusive five-day windows with their departing clients, players and teams decide to opt in or out of optional contract years, and qualifying offers are issued and routinely rejected.

This past Friday was one of the final deadlines of MLB’s early offseason, by which teams had to choose whether or not to tender contracts to players on their 40-man roster with fewer than six years of service time. Those tendered contracts will remain under team control in 2024, but those whom teams declined to offer contracts were added to the free-agent pool and will look for work elsewhere. By the end of the day, a majority of teams had at least one extra empty 40-man spot, and dozens of players — headlined by two-time All-Star Brandon Woodruff — were newly available.

Woodruff, who is recovering from a shoulder surgery and will miss most of the upcoming season, is certainly the standout arm in this year’s cohort of non-tenders, but he’s not exactly the prototypical non-tender. In this year’s crop, there are a number of interesting low-profile arms who are looking to re-establish themselves as bullpen contributors with another big league opportunity after injuries or stretches of underperformance. Let’s take a look at a handful of guys who will be hoping to find good fits as low-risk potential contributors over the next few months. Read the rest of this entry »

Admit it: you had a feeling it might go this way. Aaron Nola is headed back to Philadelphia. After a short trip to free agency, he re-signed with the Phillies for seven years and $172 million, as USA TODAY’s Bob Nightengale first reported. He’s the first domino to fall this offseason, but this was hardly a shocking outcome. The move makes a lot of sense for both team and player, which helps explain why it came to pass so swiftly.

Let’s start with the team side of things. The Phillies are bona fide World Series contenders, and they’re built to win right this minute. Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and J.T. Realmuto are all at or near the peak of their careers. Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos are in the same boat. The Philly offense is so good right now that it would be borderline criminal not to contend, and that’s clearly been the team’s plan. They made the World Series in 2022, then went out and added Turner in the offseason to bolster their squad.

If they didn’t act this offseason, they’d be moving in the wrong direction. The Phillies’ recent regular seasons may have been built around an excellent offense, but their playoff plan has been all about pitching. Nola and Zack Wheeler have each been October workhorses; taking advantage of off days, they’ve started 19 of the team’s 30 playoff games in the last two years. Giving the ball to elite starters that frequently takes pressure off both the rest of the rotation and the bullpen, the team’s two great weaknesses. Read the rest of this entry »

Free agency has been ongoing for two weeks now, but for the most part, the big dominoes are yet to fall. While teams certainly have their sights set on the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger, the early offseason has been defined by smaller moves and signings made around the non-tender and Rule 5 protection deadlines.

The players being exchanged aren’t the most notable members of their respective rosters, yet they’ll still impact the quality of their teams in the upcoming season. We’ll be knocking out many of the more intriguing pitchers who have changed hands in this two-part series. Read the rest of this entry »

You’ve already heard it from me. You’ve already heard it from a lot of people. You’re going to keep hearing it all offseason. This is a tough year for teams that want to add offensive firepower in free agency. Unless you’re really into Cody Bellinger or Matt Chapman, it’s Shohei Ohtani or bust, and according to my math, there are 30 teams and only one Ohtani.

That’s a bleak reality, but it paints with too broad of a brush. That description makes it sound like every team who needs a hitter to play anywhere is in equally dire straits. That’s not true, though. If you’re looking for a third baseman or a righty power bat with questionable defensive value, you have options. If you want to sign an intriguing young corner outfielder who might pay dividends a few years down the road, Jung-hoo Lee is a solid choice. But if you’re looking for a catcher – sorry, pal, nothing to see here.

Every year is a bad year for free agent catchers. In the last five years, three catchers have hit the open market after a 3-plus WAR season or its 2020 equivalent: J.T. Realmuto, James McCann, and Willson Contreras. Realmuto was a perennial All-Star when he re-upped with the Phillies, and Contreras has been a valuable offensive contributor for quite some time, but McCann only barely qualifies; he put together a nice season over 111 plate appearances in 2020. If you’re looking for a star catcher, free agency is the wrong place to set your sights. Read the rest of this entry »

My September 10 Sunday Notes column included Chris Antonetti addressing his team’s 2023 offensive struggles. According to Cleveland’s President of Baseball Operations, “The problem isn’t power, the problem is that we need to score more runs.” While I don’t necessarily disagree with the exec’s opinion, it is nonetheless true that the Guardians hit the fewest home runs of any team and finished fourth from the bottom in runs scored. Moreover, they finished 76-86 after going 92-70 in 2022.

I revisited the issue, at least in part, during this month’s GM meetings. I asked Antonetti’s second in command, Mike Chernoff, if the club needs to reassess some of its philosophies going forward.

“If you rewind the clock one year, we felt like we massively outperformed industry expectations,” Cleveland’s General Manager told me “We won 92 games with the youngest team in baseball. This year, we again had the youngest team in baseball. We hit a few unfortunate and untimely injuries with some of our starting pitching, but at the same time we transitioned three young starters in [Gavin] Williams, [Tanner] Bibee, and [Logan] Allen to the major-league team. We just didn’t perform as well offensively. So we don’t feel like wholesale changes are necessary. We feel like we have a really strong foundation off of which to continue building, but we also don’t have a lot of room for error as a small-market team.”

Industry expectations are one thing, in-house projection systems are another. With that in mind, I asked Chernoff if the 2022 Guardians outperformed their own projections, and if the 2023 club underperformed them. Read the rest of this entry »

Late Thursday night, after the final horn had sounded on the last West Coast NHL game, new White Sox general manager Chris Getz consummated his first trade in his new role, sending sinker-balling lefty reliever Aaron Bummer to Atlanta for a five-player variety pack of “second division” players and reclamation projects. The new White Sox are headlined by 26-year-old 2019 All-Star righty Michael Soroka, 28-year-old infielder Nicky Lopez, and 25-year-old lefty starter Jared Shuster, all of whom can be reasonably expected to impact the 2024 squad. Chicago also acquired 25-year-old infielder Braden Shewmake, who is also on the 40-man roster, and 2023 undrafted free agent starter Riley Gowens, who is more of a developmental project from the University of Illinois. Read the rest of this entry »

In the offseason, there’s no live major league baseball to watch. I’m a lazy consumer, so I don’t watch much LIDOM action; I catch bits and pieces here and there, but for the most part, the winter is when I recharge my baseball batteries and do a little film study.

I can hear what you’re saying: film study? I don’t play, and I don’t coach. I can’t develop some secret sauce that will help me win next year by grinding in the film room in December. For me, though, it’s just fun. Other than the fact that I’m nothing like Roger Federer, I completely identify with what he said about studying tape: “I used to do a lot of video analysis early on, but more for pleasure and looking at my own technique.”

Fine, I’m not watching my own technique, but I do like rewatching games from this year for my own enjoyment. I’m not so much trying to fix something for 2024 as trying to look back at 2023 and smile. Oh, you’d like an example? I’m glad you asked. Here’s the video I’ve been watching most recently: three delightfully ridiculous umpiring calls. Read the rest of this entry »