Zac Gallen has a 3.16 ERA over 82 big-league starts. He also has just 22 wins, a total that deserves to be far higher. On 29 occasions, the 27-year-old Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander has had either a loss or a no-decision while working five or more innings and allowing two or fewer earned runs. In 20 of those games he’s gone at least six innings, and in eight of them he’s gone at least seven. Moreover, there have been no undeserved Ws. The most earned runs Gallen has allowed while being credited with a win is three, and that has only happened twice.

I recently asked the hard-luck hurler about his run of bad fortune.

“I’m aware of it,” responded Gallen, whose career record stands a modest 22-23. “It’s something my family looks at and kind of jokes around with, that I’m an unlucky pitcher in the sense of getting wins. But my job is to throw up as many zeros as I can and keep us in the game. As baseball has gone on, the win has also been, for lack of a better word, devalued. Starters aren’t going as long in games, which contributes to that.”

Not allowing any runs — regardless of the number of innings you throw — is the ultimate goal for any pitcher, and Gallen had baseball’s best scoreless streak last season. Over a seven-start stretch from August 8 to September 11, he went 44-and-third consecutive innings without allowing a runner to cross the plate. That he was credited with a win in all but one of those starts isn’t exactly surprising, but at the same time, Gallen has learned not to to take anything for granted. Four times in his career he’s gone six or more scoreless innings without a decision.

“It was awesome,” Gallen said of his impressive string of zeros. “I’ve kind of taken on the thought that you really have to earn your wins. [Manager] Torey [Lovullo] talks about it all the time. Pitching deep into games is how starters are often going to earn those wins, so that is something I take pride in.”

Gallen went at least seven innings 10 times last year on his way to a 12-4 record — which, like his career ledger, should have been much better. With solid run support, the snake-bitten D-Back could easily have been a 20-game winner. Devalued or not, that number has long been a mark of distinction for starting pitchers. That in mind, is 20 a goal for Gallen this year?

“My goal for us is to make the playoffs,” Gallen told me. “If 20 wins falls within that, great. If it’s 10 wins — whatever the number — that’s fine, too. As long as we’re in the playoffs, I don’t care. I just want to pitch well and help us get there.”

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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS

Bobby Bonds went 2 for 22 against Lowell Palmer.

Jeffrey Leonard went 3 for 23 against David Palmer.

Chuck Hinton went 4 for 24 against Jim Palmer.

Dean Palmer went 6 for 7 against Shane Reynolds.

Luke Easter went 4 for 4 against Cuddles Marshall.

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Watching Rafael Devers get called out on strikes on Opening Day because the home plate umpire ruled that he wasn’t ready in time brought to mind something Rich Hill said following a spring training start. Asked about the ramifications of the new pitch clock rule, the veteran left-hander aptly brought up common sense — something MLB’s powers-that-be seemingly don’t always consider.

“I’m not against a faster game — there’s no question about that — but I am 100% against an outcome that is a result of non-competitive action,” said Hill. “I think everybody should be.”

“Maybe five more seconds,” added Hill. “Again, I’m not against a fast game, it’s just that it’s tough to watch some of these results, like getting ball four, or a guy striking out [without a pitch being thrown]. It’s not fair to anyone. The fans are booing. They want to see action. They want to see a quicker game — there are positives — but that big drawback is such a negative.”

I’m on board with Hill’s opinions. An extra five seconds on the pitch clock is far from a bad idea, and more importantly, ending a plate appearance without a pitch being thrown is anathema to fair play. That said, if the rule is indeed going to be enforced, I’d like to suggest an official-scoring change. A pitcher isn’t charged with an earned run when an extra-innings zombie runner (the worst rule in the history of professional sports) scores, so why would a pitcher be credited with a K on a pitch he never threw? The hurler who “struck out” Devers did so via a non-competitive action, and statistically speaking, that’s illogical. Accomplishments should be earned, not arbitrarily assigned.

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A quiz:

The New York Yankees franchise record for career games started is co-held by two pitchers. Who are they?

The answer can be found below.

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NEWS NOTES

The Midwest League’s Great Lakes Loons have hired John Vicari to work alongside Brad Tunney in their radio booth this season. A 2021 Ithaca College graduate, Vicari was with the High-A Lake County Captains last year.

Roberto Barbon, who spent 1954 in the Brooklyn Dodgers system before becoming Japan’s first Latin American player, reportedly died last month at age 89. A Cuban-born infielder, Barbon played for the Hankyu Braves from 1955-1964, and for the Osaka Kintetsu Buffaloes in 1965.

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The answer to the quiz is Whitey Ford and Andy Pettitte, with 438 starts each.

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Tyler Rogers had just finished his rookie season with the San Francisco Giants when he led Sunday Notes in October 2019. The subject at hand was the righty’s submarine delivery, which confounds enough hitters to make him effective despite a fastball that ranks, per Statcast, in the first percentile for velocity, and in the second percentile for spin. Thanks largely to his uniqueness, Rogers has a 2.92 ERA and a 3.23 FIP over 195 relief outings comprising 203-and-a-third innings.

What has the twin brother of teammate Taylor Rogers learned about how his stuff plays from analytics?

“Nothing, to be honest,” Rogers told me on my recent visit to Giants camp. “The Rapsodos, and the TrackMans we have in the bullpen, don’t even pick me up. Plus, I never really dive into the numbers. That’s for the coaches, and the people who know what they’re looking at. I just go out there and pitch. I’m pretty much old school in that regard.”

Do hitters ever tell him how his pitches play, particularly when they’re thrown in certain areas of the zone?

“Oh, they tell me,” the right-hander responded with a laugh. “They definitely tell me that”

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MLB announced that a total of 269 players representing 19 different countries and territories outside of the 50 United States were on Opening Day rosters and inactive lists. The Dominican Republic had the most, with 104, followed by Venezuela (62), Cuba (21), Puerto Rico (19), Mexico (15), Canada (10), Japan (8), Colombia (7), Curaçao (4), Panama (4), South Korea (4), the Bahamas (2), Nicaragua (2), Aruba (1), Australia (1), Brazil (1), Germany (1), Honduras (1), and Taiwan (1).

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FOREIGN AFFAIRS

The 2023 NPB season kicked off this week with the Rakuten Golden Eagles beating the Nippon Ham Fighters 3-1. Masahiro Tanaka went five-and-two-thirds innings for the win, while Maikel Franco had three hits and drove in a pair of runs.

The Tokyo Yakult Swallows topped the Hiroshima Carp 4-0 behind seven shutout innings by Yasuhiro Ogawa and a home run by Munetaka Murakami. The latter is coming off of a season where he slashed .318/.458/.711 with 56 home runs.

Opening Day in the KBO was highlighted by a 12-10 Doosan Bears win over the Lotte Giants. Jose Rojas hit a walk-off, three-run homer in the bottom of the 11th inning to end the high-scoring affair.

Anthony Alford and Baek-ho Kang combined to go went 7-for-9 with six RBIs to lead the KT Wiz to an 11-6 win over the LG Twins. Wes Benjamin threw six scoreless innings for the winning side.

Shin-Soo Choo homered in SSG Landers’ 4-1 win over the Kia Tigers. The 40-year-old DH was also called out while attempting a straight steal of home.

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C.J. Cron has had a solid career with the bat, particularly in the power department. Now in his 10th big-league season, and his third with the Colorado Rockies, the 33-year-old first baseman has averaged 28 home runs over the previous four non-COVID campaigns. And he’s off to a stellar start in 2023. Through his first two games, Cron is 7-for-11 with a pair of walks and three bombs.

I first interviewed the right-handed-hitting slugger in 2013 when he was a Los Angeles Angels prospect playing in the Arizona Fall League. When I caught up to him in Rockies camp a few weeks ago, I asked him if his career path has gone much as he’d expected. His response quickly segued into a nod to one of the best hitters of our generation.

“I never really had an idea of what it was going to be like,” claimed Cron. “I kind of just went step by step, always trying to play well and help the team as much as possible. Obviously, when you come into the league playing behind Albert Pujols, the opportunity might be a little more limited than you would love. But it was so great to learn under him. Watching how he went about his business — his solid baseball routine, how he hit in the cage, the way he hit in BP, the way he approached the game — taught me a lot.”

I asked Cron about the degree to which he followed Pujols’s routine.

“Not specific drills, and stuff like that,” Cron responded. “But definitely how often he hit in the cage. He was in there all the time. So yeah, I was in the cage quite a bit too. Little things like that.”

Cron has 177 career home runs to go with a 112 wRC+. He made his first All-Star team last year.

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FARM NOTES

New York Mets prospect Brett Baty went 4-for-5 with a pair of home runs yesterday as Triple-A Syracuse topped the Worcester Red Sox 16-6. The 23-year-old third baseman is No. 23 on our Top 100.

Keston Hiura, who cleared waivers after being DFA’d by the Milwaukee Brewers last week, homered yesterday in Triple-A Nashville’s 5-4 win over Louisville. The former first-rounder also drew three walks.

Daniel Murphy has signed with the independent Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks. A veteran of 12 big-league seasons, the 38-year-old (as of yesterday) infielder last played with the Colorado Rockies in 2020.

Kole Cottam signed with the Atlantic League’s Frederick Baseball Club. A 25-year-old catcher out of the University of Kentucky, Cottam has been in the Red Sox system since 2018 and spent last year in Double-A Portland and Triple-A Worcester.

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When Brandon Hyde met the media following Thursday’s 10-9 win at Fenway Park, the Baltimore manager was asked by The Athletic’s Dan Connolly about Adley Rutschman’s big day. As Connelly pointed out, no Orioles player going back to 1954 — the franchise’s first year in Baltimore — had ever had an Opening Day where he logged five hits and reached base six times. To Hyde, the 5-for-5-with-a-walk-and-a-home-run performance wasn’t so much surprising as it was a sign of what the 25-year-old catcher is capable of.

“If you do anything historical for the Baltimore Orioles, it’s… there have been a lot of great players who have worn this uniform,” said Hyde. “It’s not the only time you’re going to say that about Adley. He’s going to be doing other things that are firsts, as well. He’s just a super special player. He’s a really good hitter and he hasn’t even played a full year yet. Good things are coming.”

Rutschman — the runner-up in last year’s A.L. Rookie-of-the-Year voting — told reporters that he had no idea he’d gone into the record books, only that he was glad they’d won a “well-fought”game. That it was his first big-league Opening Day — the erstwhile Oregon State Beaver made his MLB debut in mid-May — did resonate with Rutschman.

“I’ve had a couple of Opening Days in college, down in Arizona in front of 5,000 people, and this definitely blows that right out of the water,” said Rutschman. “To have that close game in the ninth inning, and the crowd getting so loud, I was sitting there thinking, ‘This is pretty cool.’”

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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE

Team Japan manager Hideki Kuriyama was critical of WBC organizers for changing the bracket mid-tournament, a decision that scrapped his plans to pitch Roki Sasaki against the United States. Jason Coskrey has the story at The Japan Times.

MLB.com’s Anne Rogers wrote about Melissa Lambert, who as the club’s Director of Behavioral Science is the first-ever woman to be part of the Kansas City Royals’ on-field staff.

The Athletic’s Andrew Baggerly wrote an ode to the recently-retired Sergio Romo (subscription required).

Arte Moreno recently cited economics as the main reason why the Angels aren’t sending their radio broadcasters on the road this year. Sean Keeley wrote about the unpopular owner’s inexcusable decision — and his equally embarrassing explanation — for Awful Announcing.

The editorial board of The Baltimore Sun has issues with Orioles chairman and CEO John Angelos twice stating — unsolicited, no less — that he will share information about the team’s financials, only to then criticize one of the publication’s writers for expecting him to keep his word.

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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS

Miguel Cabrera played in his 20th career Opening Day on Thursday. The Detroit DH doubled in one of his four at-bats, giving him 3,089 career hits, tying him with Ichiro Suzuki on MLB’s all-time list. Miggy has since recorded hit number 3,090 and is now 24th all-time.

Paul Goldschmidt had a stolen base on Opening Day and has been successful on each of his last 23 attempts. The streak dates back to the 2019 season.

The Chicago White Sox went 19-3 against the Washington Senators in 1909. They beat Walter Johnson six times, by final scores of 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0. and 6-3.

Pete Alexander and Christy Mathewson finished their Hall of Fame careers with 373 wins each. Alexander threw 436 complete games and had a 135 ERA+. Mathewson threw 435 complete games and had a 136 ERA+.

The Detroit Tigers returned Maury Wills, whom they’d purchased on an option basis, to the Los Angeles Dodgers on today’s date in 1959. Wills went on to make his MLB debut that summer, then lead in the National League in stolen bases each year from 1960-1965.

The Milwaukee Brewers signed Willie Randolph as a free agent on today’s date in 1991. The longtime New York Yankees second baseman, who had spent the previous season with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Oakland Athletics, went on to slash .327/.424/.374 over 512 plate appearances in his one-year Milwaukee stint.

Players born on today’s date include Dick “The Monster” Radatz, who was one of the game’s most dominant relievers before arm woes curtailed his career. In his first three seasons with the Boston Red Sox (1962-1964), the Detroit native went a combined 40-21 with 76 saves and a 2.17 ERA over 414 innings. Radatz holds the MLB record for strikeouts in a season by a relief pitcher with 181.

Also born on today’s date was Cotton Pippen, who pitched for the St. Louis Cardinals, Philadelphia Athletics, and Detroit Tigers from 1936-1940. The right-hander from Cisco, Texas had his best season in the Pacific Coast League, winning 20 games with the Oakland Oaks in 1943.

The ribbon has been cut on the 2023 season and I wanted to push a few prospect updates live to The Board, including a few tweaks to the Top 100 list. This update also includes publication of scouting reports such that every rookie currently on an active roster now has a current record on The Board, and a few additions the farm systems I’ve already audited during this cycle based on things I saw during spring training.

Let’s start with injury-related updates to the Top 100. Phillies top prospect Andrew Painter has a partially torn UCL and is approaching the end of his four-week shutdown period. Rule of thumb: Among a similarly talented group of players, you’d most want to have the healthy guys. Painter slides from fifth overall to 12th, right behind newly minted big leaguers Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker, who are comparably talented, healthy, and making a big league impact right now. This is just a cosmetic change to the list; Painter’s evaluation hasn’t changed. If it turns out he needs Tommy John, whether or not I slide him any further will depend on its timing. If rest doesn’t work and his surgery is timed such that he also misses all of 2024, that’s the worst case scenario for Painter and the Phillies. We know for sure that Nationals pitching prospect Cade Cavalli needs Tommy John, so in a similar fashion he falls within the 50 FV player tier, sliding from 63rd overall to 99th, right next to Mason Miller of the A’s, with whom he now shares injury-related relief risk.

Tigers prospect Jackson Jobe, the third overall pick in 2021, is going to miss three to six months due to lumbar spine inflammation. This injury is more novel than a TJ, and Jobe isn’t exactly coming off a great 2022. Unfortunately, this situation merits a more meaningful shift, but I still want to reflect the upside of a healthy Jobe, so he downshifts to the 45+ FV tier, where the most talented of the young high-variance prospects reside. Assuming he comes back late this season, he’ll be one of the higher-priority evaluations in the minors. Read the rest of this entry »

Justin Verlander wasn’t scheduled to start on Thursday, but he couldn’t even make it to the first pitch of his first Opening Day as a Met unscathed. The 40-year-old righty officially opened the season on the injured list due to a low-grade strain of his teres major, and while his absence isn’t expected to be a lengthy one, it comes at the tail end of a spring in which the Mets already lost starter José Quintana for about half the season and closer Edwin Diaz for most if not all of it.

Unfortunately, Verlander isn’t the only frontline starter to be sidelined by a teres major strain this week, as the Guardians’ Triston McKenzie recently suffered a more serious strain of the same muscle. Likewise, Verlander isn’t the only big-name hurler for a New York team who was sidelined this week (the Yankees’ Luis Severino is out again), nor is he the only NL East starter to turn up lame on Thursday (the Braves’ Max Fried took an early exit), or the only over-40 star whose plans took a turn (the Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright missed his Opening Day assignment). If it’s not a party until something gets broken, it’s not a new baseball season until a star pitcher goes down. Perhaps the only consolation to be had in this round-up is that all of these injuries are muscle strains of some sort rather than ligaments or tendons. Read the rest of this entry »

Hensley Meulens wants Rockies hitters to mash. What he doesn’t want from them is an undisciplined two-strike approach. As much as “Bam-Bam” believes in damage, he’s a proponent of putting balls in play when the pitcher is in the driver’s seat. Colorado’s new hitting coach accentuated both aspects when I asked him about his philosophy during December’s Winter Meetings.

“Have a plan, get a good pitch, and take your A-swing,” said Meulens, who a month earlier had replaced Dave Magadan in the role. “That’s before two strikes. A lot of at-bats get to two strikes, but I want us to be able to do damage before we get to two strikes. Once you do get to two strikes, you need to find a way to keep the line moving.”

Meulens went on to say that while many hitters can make that adjustment — Barry Bonds having choked up on the bat is an example — there are others who can’t. One is a slugger he worked with while serving as an assistant hitting coach with the New York Yankees.

“Certain hitters, you can’t change anything,” said Meulens. “They’ve got one swing. I coached Joey Gallo this past year. As much as you try to give Joey Gallo a two-strike approach, he’s got the one swing. He goes for the downs. That’s why he’s been in the big leagues, but if a player has the ability to keep an at-bat going and be productive with two strikes by making a little adjustment, I’m all for it. If they can’t do that, you have to live with what they bring. That’s how baseball works.” Read the rest of this entry »

The baseball season is only one day old, so it’s probably too early to draw any conclusions. The Reds will probably be bad. The Astros will probably be good. The Angels will probably snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and end up around .500 despite employing two of the best players on the planet. Other than those broad strokes, though, it’ll take us a little while to know much for certain.

With that stipulated, let’s make far too much of something that a player did, not even yesterday, but in spring training. That sounds like a fun way to start our year. Ryan McMahon is embarking on his seventh major league season (counting a cup of coffee in 2017). He’s a defensive standout, heir to Nolan Arenado as an elite Rockies third baseman. He sports a career 89 wRC+. He also hit a ball tremendously hard in spring training, so now it’s time to dream on him as a power threat, or at least an above-average offensive player.

The list of the hardest-hit balls in spring training is filled with hitters you’d expect to see. Giancarlo Stanton places both first and third. Oneil Cruz makes an appearance in the top 10. Jordan Walker, who ascended to the major leagues on the back of his raw power, is in the top five. Franmil Reyes and Franchy Cordero, both of whom have power to spare, place highly. Then there’s McMahon, who smashed a grounder at a shocking 117.8 mph, the second-hardest-hit batted ball that Statcast recorded all spring. Read the rest of this entry »

You probably don’t think of baseball as a contact sport, though catchers might beg to differ. Whether it’s blocking a baseball or taking a foul ball to the mask, catchers are constantly at war with a five-ounce ball of leather. That’s why catchers have to commit to blocking through and through. You can’t cheat your way to being a good blocker; you have to learn your pitchers to understand what pitches they tend to spike and how those pitches spin off a bounce. The stakes will always depend on the situation, but as a catcher, you try to gain the confidence in your pitcher to throw a pitch in the dirt by committing to the grind in the bullpen, during warmup pitches, and in game.

I’ve been anticipating Statcast adding blocking metrics for a while now. As a former college catcher, it doesn’t take much to make me appreciate the league’s great blockers, but our culture in baseball gives more attention and value to the things we can measure. With the introduction of the new blocking leaderboard, we no longer need to guess at just how impactful or skilled some catchers are relative to their peers.

In a similar fashion to how I reviewed Statcast’s arm strength leaderboards, I am going to highlight some of the best blocking catchers in the game. The criteria for this exercise is straightforward: I took the catchers ranked first through fifth on the default leaderboard and chose what I deemed to be an impressive pair of blocks from each from the 2022 season. The mechanics of blocking can vary from player to player, but what matters most is killing the speed of the bounce with the lower half of your chest protector. These five catchers can do that on a variety of pitches going in any direction.

Adley Rutschman (no. 1 overall, 18 Blocks Above Average)

I’ll start with this: the debate between catching with one knee down versus in a traditional stance has no absolute answer; it’s entirely dependent on the individual catcher. In the case of Adley Rutschman, he is capable of being both a top-tier framer and blocker primarily in the traditional stance. But the combination of his mobility, flexibility, and hip anatomy allows him to shift his knees down from his traditional stance without needing to get into a pronounced traditional squat.

On this 90-mph splitter from Félix Bautista, Rutschman anticipated the pitch in the dirt and blocked up with what looked like an effortless movement. Bautista is without question one of the most difficult pitchers in the game to catch: triple digits from a straight over-the-top arm slot high off the ground, paired with a blistering splitter that hitters swing through over half the time. Because of that, Rutschman must always be ready to get his knees on the ground and stuff the splitter, especially when runners are on. He put on a clinic all year, and this pitch was no exception.

The second block was just as impressive. On a 92-mph changeup, Rutschman read the arm-side spin and opened up his left hip to create space for a side shuffle to get in front of the baseball. Blocking pitches over 90 mph is a doozy, but it’s all in day’s work for one of the best in the game.

Jose Trevino (no. 2 overall, 15 Blocks Above Average)

Every time I watch Jose Trevino catch, it’s clear to me that he is a former infielder. The way he can shift and rotate his hips while in such a deep position is truly impressive. He is one of the catchers who can have one knee down and be even better at blocking. Since he has such a great feel for his pitcher’s tendencies, he can sink into his one knee stance and block a Gerrit Cole knuckle curve in the dirt if he needs to, or get under the pitch and frame it if it’s in the shadow zone.

The sweeper he blocked from Lucas Luetge with the bases loaded was what I like to call a confidence block. Luetge’s strength is using his sweeper for soft contact and chases on his glove side; that he throws it on an 0–1 count with the bases loaded says a lot about his trust in his catcher. And Trevino stuffed the sweeper right in front of him, showing me that he was relaxed as can be. When a pitch is about to hit your chest protector, you’re taught to exhale so you can soften your body and accept the pitch into your stomach rather than stiffening up. Few catchers do that as well as the Yankees’ backstop.

J.T. Realmuto (no. 3 overall, 14 Blocks Above Average)

J.T. Realmuto is an iron man behind the plate: He has caught over 130 games in back-to-back years, including a deep playoff run last year where he did not miss a single game. This is a perfect example of an everyday catcher who relies on the one knee down stance to take some wear and tear off his body. Like Trevino, he uses it to his advantage when blocking. Because he is so flexible, he can extend his right leg outwards as far as he can, which lets him get ahead of the movement; in a traditional stance, you have to recognize the pitch, then shoot your leg out for a block.

A spiked changeup is no challenge for Realmuto. His body is already in a perfect position to be a wall for a long or short hop. All he has to do is move his glove to cover his five hole like he did in the first clip. The reason I included the blocked curveball was so that I could highlight how he uses his legs to recover from the block in a one knee down stance. Focus on how his left knee slides inward as the pitch hits his chest protector. That lets him tighten his five hole and put his body in a better position to shoot up quickly. He then pulls in his extended right leg under the center of his body so he can push off both legs to chase the pitch to ensure the runner doesn’t advance. This is not a simple movement; it requires next-level mobility and strength to pop up this quickly. It’s just one of the many strengths of Realmuto’s catching game.

Sean Murphy (no. 4 overall, 12 Blocks Above Average)

As a baseball fan on the east coast, I didn’t always get a chance to watch Sean Murphy display his catching prowess in Oakland. But in doing the research for this piece, I was impressed to see how athletic he is back there. Blocking splitters that hit the plate is a painful job; when any pitch hits the plate, it hardly loses any speed. But Murphy grew up in the bigs catching and blocking this pitch from Frankie Montas, and he is a better defensive catcher for it.

Murphy’s stance — with his behind high up in the air — is reminiscent of an old school catcher preparing to stuff a pitch in the dirt. You’ll notice that in the second GIF, he also uses the one knee down stance to block. Some catchers will vary their stance depending on the pitcher. As I said earlier, blocking splitters is extremely difficult; in fact, I’d bet it’s the toughest pitch for catchers to get in front of when it’s spiked because of how it can bounce off dirt. That’s why Murphy opted for the traditional stance with Montas but went with one knee on a curveball from Jared Koenig. When you know your pitchers, you can be savvy with how you set yourself up for success.

Tomás Nido (no. 5 overall, 12 Blocks Above Average)

This wouldn’t be an article about great catching without including a Puerto Rican backstop. Tomás Nido is your classic backup defense-first catcher who has made his carer off being an elite framer and blocker. His placement on this list is incredible given that he is only a part-time player. Similar to some of the catchers already highlighted, he is dealing with some electric pitchers with air-bending offerings. I didn’t include traditional chest protector blocks in either clip because I wanted to use Nido as an opportunity to talk about a crucial part of catching/blocking that isn’t always realized: the art of picking.

Picking is a flashy, beautiful move that can only be executed by players with the softest of hands. The retired Yadier Molina always had a knack for picking balls that looked destined for the backstop, and his fellow Puerto Rican Nido is no different. On an overthrown changeup from Max Scherzer, Nido smoothly moves his glove across the zone and effortlessly stops the pitch from getting by him. He did almost the same thing on the spiked changeup from Joely Rodríguez, but in the opposite direction. Picking is something that you do when you know you have no shot at blocking a pitch. It’s a necessary skill that isn’t always rigorously trained, but it should be for that exact reason. Depending on how you were set up, there are times when there is no shot to contort your body in front of the ball. When that time comes, all you have is your glove and your instincts. Nido has proven time and time again he can do this on a pinch.

I hope you’ve come away from this piece learning a thing or two about blocking. There are the obvious things you cannot miss when it comes to blocking, but aspects such as recovery, picking, and exhaling upon impact are all minute details that don’t always get attention. This list of catchers displays those abilities on a routine basis, and that is why they have found themselves atop this new leaderboard.

After all the rumors and money and projections and Carlos Correa signing announcements (and un-announcements), here we are, back at 0-0, with every team having at least some technical level of hope for the 2023 season. Until today’s games start the process of turning projections into history, the season is a blank piece of paper or canvas, a fresh layer of snow without a hint of gray, a home improvement project before the moment you remember you barely know how to assemble an IKEA end table. Now before I get too wistful and start sounding like Paul Harvey or weird AI Vin Scully, let’s get down to business.

Since I am the owner, caretaker, and occasional messer-upper of the ZiPS projection system, that’s the system I used to run the 2023 season a million times. The methodology I’m using here isn’t identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings, meaning there will naturally be some important differences in the results. So how does ZiPS calculate the season? Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th-percentile projections for each player. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as a jumping off point. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time as filtered through arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion (the computational algorithms, that is — no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond).

After that is done, ZiPS applies another set of algorithms with a generalized distribution of injury risk that changes the baseline PAs/IPs for each player. Of note is that higher-percentile projections already have more playing time than lower-percentile projections before this step. ZiPS then automatically (and proportionally) “fills in” playing time from the next players on the list to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings. Read the rest of this entry »

On Monday, we wrote about three interesting players who had been putting up massive exit velocity numbers in spring training. Today we’ll highlight two more players in depth, and touch briefly on a two more. Ben Clemens will be writing about Ryan McMahon, who happens to be the spring training exit velocity champion, tomorrow.

Now that spring training is over, you can find the final exit velocity leaderboard at the bottom of this article. It’s got some notable names: Ke’Bryan Hayes is crushing the ball, but he’s still not elevating it; Kris Bryant is healthy and mashing; Nolan Gorman is demonstrating that Jordan Walker isn’t the only exciting prospect in St. Louis; Christian Walker is making last year’s breakout look more sustainable, rocket by rocket; and Zac Veen is giving Colorado fans something, anything to look forward to.

If you read Monday’s article, you likely noticed that the featured players shared a similar profile. A list of players who can demolish a baseball but aren’t established stars is going to be heavy on strikeouts and problematically high groundball rates. You should expect that trend to continue today. Read the rest of this entry »

Opening Day is finally upon us. The weather is getting warmer, the smell of spring is in the air, and regular season baseball is back. Enjoying games around the league on Opening Day is a ritual for many baseball fans including myself, and these games are particularly exciting because teams always bring the best they have to offer. The long slog of the season sometimes leads to rest days for star hitters, and a string of injuries can ruin a lineup come June or July. But Opening Day is the only day where everyone is on display, particularly on the mound, as each team hands the ball to its no. 1 starter to start the season, health permitting, to produce some of the best matchups we’ll see all year.

In total, 19 of the top 30 pitchers by our Depth Charts projections will take the hill today, from no. 1 Jacob deGrom to no. 29 Hunter Greene. A few top pitchers lost Opening Day nods to a superior teammate — for example, the pocket aces at the top of Philadelphia’s rotation will force Zack Wheeler to wait his turn to start until Saturday. In other cases, a team’s Opening Day starter isn’t its best by our projections; Brady Singer, the no. 30 pitcher by Depth Charts with a projected WAR of 2.9, was supplanted by Zack Greinke and his 1.1 WAR projection. But overall, the combined skill of today’s starters outclasses that of any other day in the season. With these great matchups in mind, let’s plan out a full day of baseball watching that will maximize the amount of elite starting pitching on the screen. Read the rest of this entry »

After an offseason marked by big free-agent contracts, big bases, and the introduction of the pitch clock, the 2023 season is almost upon us; we made it. And on this, the morning of Opening Day, we engage in our annual tradition of asking our staff to open themselves up to public ridicule and predict the year in baseball. Some of these predictions will prove to be prescient; others will make their forecaster feel a little silly. Last year’s Mariners? Our staff thought they’d finally bring an end to the franchise’s playoff drought, and wouldn’t you know it, they did just that. The division-winning Cleveland Guardians? We fared less well. Such is the prognostication business.

We asked the staff to predict the playoff field, pennant and World Series winners, and the individual award recipients. Folks from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs weighed in; here are the results. Read the rest of this entry »