Our story begins in June of 2019, when the Cubs took a chance on a still-unsigned Craig Kimbrel. What happened next can only be described as a disaster. Kimbrel gave up a preposterous number of home runs, almost single-handedly causing the Cubs to miss the playoffs. He didn’t show any signs of improvement the following season, and his once lustrous career looked just about over, seemingly bringing the Cubs’ three-year, $43 million investment down with him.

Then, a miracle: In the first half of 2021, Kimbrel returned to form. He trimmed the walks and home runs, and co-authored a no-hitter in the process. The Cubs traded him to the White Sox at the deadline, after which he became one of the worst relief pitchers in baseball. Kimbrel ended the year with a respectable 2.26 ERA, but consider how that’s split: a 0.49 ERA with the Cubs, a 5.09 ERA with the White Sox. That offseason, the Dodgers traded for Kimbrel, hunting for upside as they usually do. And despite the controversy surrounding his usage, Kimbrel finished the year with pedestrian numbers. He wasn’t a complete mess, but he wasn’t great, either.

All this brings us to the Phillies, who’ve signed the now 34-year-old closer to a one-year deal worth $10 million. I don’t know if there’s really such a thing as a “safe” reliever. What I do know is that Kimbrel is decidedly not one. His whole career post-Boston has been a series of ups and downs, the latter more frequent than the former. But given how shallow the market for relief pitching is this offseason, it seemed inevitable that someone would take a flier on him. Kimbrel, for better or worse, has become the Phillies’ problem to solve. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2021 ALCS feels like it happened far more than 15 months ago. After coming within two wins of their fifth World Series berth in the 21st century, the Red Sox dropped 14 wins off their 2021 total to finish in last place in ’22, albeit in the only division in baseball with four teams over .500. The offensive production was okay, the rotation and bullpen proved unreliable, the defense was at times humiliating, and injuries underscored a lack of sufficient depth in a number of areas. Come November, key contributors including Xander Bogaerts, Nathan Eovaldi, and J.D. Martinez hit free agency, leaving Boston with a handful of needs just to stay level in 2023. And though the organization insisted that a Bogaerts extension was its top priority of the offseason, Boston instead watched as the Padres swooped in and inked him to a jaw-dropping 11-year, $280 million deal, leaving the Red Sox with only a fourth-round compensation pick to show for their efforts.

The offseason hasn’t been a total loss. On Wednesday, Carlos Baerga (yes, really) broke the news that the club had signed Rafael Devers to the largest and longest contract in Red Sox history, extending the 26-year-old for $331 million over 11 years. The agreement is a big change of direction for a team that failed to retain either Mookie Betts or Bogaerts, and also a bit of a salvation for a winter that up until last night had seemed to bring more bad news than good.

In terms of bringing on new players to help lift the team back to the playoffs in the immediate future, Boston’s biggest addition this offseason so far is Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida on a surprisingly lucrative five-year deal worth $105 million. Beyond him, the Red Sox made some smaller additions on short, low-cost deals for veterans. They aimed to revamp the bullpen with the additions of Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Joely Rodríguez, and brought in Justin Turner as a right-handed corner infield bat and DH. Most recently, they added much-needed depth to the starting rotation by signing 36-year-old Corey Kluber on a one-year, $10 million contract with an $11 million club option for 2024. Read the rest of this entry »

The ongoing conversation as to whether a hitter can control where they hit the ball has always confused me. As a hitter, you tailor your swing for a specific batted ball profile and come to an understanding of the types of pitches you can handle and the types you cannot. Within that context, your swing might be malleable enough to produce different types of hard contact, but if it isn’t, then you have a plan for where adjustments can be made. From that perspective, a hitter has every bit of control over where they’re going to hit the ball, even it’s more of a long-term endeavor.

On the other hand, there is the dilemma of hitting what you get, and from pitcher to pitcher, that will vary. Each pitcher has a different plan of attack, whether it’s in the pitches themselves, command of specific areas of the zone, arm slot, etc. Most hitters have limitations, and it’s the job of the pitcher to pitch to those limitations. A hitter can have a specific set of strengths that can’t be bent much at all, but then there are hitters who can change their strengths, or more specifically their batted profile, to cater to where they are playing.

In any specific matchup, it might be hard to execute on that plan. For example, we often think about situational hitting and moving runners over or trying to hit a sacrifice fly. That is difficult to do if you don’t get the pitch to do it or don’t have the motor skills to control your body with a changing set of pitch speeds and locations. But when zooming out and looking at batted ball profile, some hitters can change with time. One example of that is Andrew Benintendi. Read the rest of this entry »

Mason Auer made some of the biggest strides in the Tampa Bay Rays system in 2022. Unranked going into his first full professional season, the 21-year-old Joplin, Missouri native not only slashed .290/.372/.487 with 15 home runs between Low-A Charleston and High-A Bowling Green, he legged out 12 triples and swiped 48 bases. Moreover, he impressed on defense. A fifth-round pick in 2021 out of San Jacinto College, Auer is rated the best defensive outfielder, and as having the best outfield arm, among Rays prospects.

Auer discussed his path to pro ball and the skill set that has allowed him to emerge as a promising prospect at the end of last season.

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David Laurila: You were a late-round pick out of high school in 2019 but opted to attend a junior college rather than sign with the Chicago Cubs. What went into that decision?

Mason Auer: “There were talks earlier in the draft, but it wasn’t the money I wanted. Then they picked me in the 39th round. They called and said that there was maybe going to be some more money opening up if they didn’t get a few guys signed, so there was some serious talk about me signing, but that didn’t happen. I mean, it was still a hard decision. Ultimately, I knew that I wanted to keep working hard and go higher in [an upcoming] draft.” Read the rest of this entry »

Maybe we shouldn’t doubt the Dodgers. They’ve won nine out of the last 10 NL West titles, and in the year they didn’t win the division, they won 106 games. They’re juggernauts by design, a team built to withstand the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. They draft well, develop well, spend a ton of money, and spend that money intelligently. They’re the closest thing baseball has to a dynasty these days, and given the inherent randomness of the playoffs, that’s not likely to change anytime soon.

That’s all true – and despite it all, I’m leaning towards doubting their chances in 2023. For the first time in years, I don’t have to jump through hoops to come up with reasons to do so. The Dodgers look like one of the best teams in baseball, but they no longer look, at least to me, like the absolute class of the league. It’s weird to think of it that way, but let’s talk through it together.

First things first: the Dodgers lost a ton of good free agents this year, just like they do every year. That’s simply the cost of doing business when you’re good as consistently as they are; your team will naturally be filled with great players approaching free agency. This year’s iteration of the team lost a whopping 21.3 WAR worth of 2022 production, the highest mark in the majors. The list of the top five teams when it comes to lost 2022 production is a who’s who of clubs trying to contend right now:

Read the rest of this entry »

I don’t know if you’ve heard, but here at FanGraphs we enjoy the occasional number. Even our logo has its own bar graph. Today our topic is competitive runs, a statistic that rarely gets the love and appreciation it deserves, due to the fact that it’s mostly made up. Competitive runs is a classification created for Statcast. In order to measure average sprint speed, you need a pool of plays when players will presumably be running their hardest:

Competitive runs are essentially just the sample size. When you go to Baseball Savant’s leaderboard, the players are always sorted from fastest to slowest. However, you can also sort by competitive runs, and I can never resist. All season long, one player was absolutely trouncing the field:

Amed Rosario is the grand champion of competitive runs. The difference between Rosario in first place and Brandon Nimmo in second place is the same as the difference between Nimmo and Jeff McNeil in 34th place. I’m sure Nimmo takes some solace in knowing that he’s the undisputed leader of the non-competitive run. Whether it’s a walk or a hit by pitch, the dude straight up loves scampering to first base for his own particular reasons:

Turning our attention back to Rosario: It’s not as if he’s just racking up competitive runs as a counting stat. He also leads the league on a rate basis, no matter which rate you choose:

I don’t know about you, but I think this is incredibly fun. Competitive runs is an incidental statistic. It’s just scaffolding for another stat, but there’s one person who plays baseball like competitive runs is his own personal pinball machine. The other reason I love it is that even though competitive runs exists only to serve a higher master, it’s still a descriptive stat in its own right. A player’s competitive runs total tells you plenty about the way they play the game. Read the rest of this entry »

Long, successful baseball careers usually have a predictable shape to them. A young, highly-regarded prospect gets his first cup of coffee, then becomes a full-time starter over the next few years, possibly ascending to star level. Then he slowly ages and declines, riding off into the sunset in his late 30s. Some choose not to follow that trend. Jamie Moyer pitched twice as many innings in his 40s as he did in his 20s, finally retiring at the absurd age of 49. In 1965, a 59-year-old Satchel Paige returned to the majors for one more game, and despite his signing being a largely ceremonial move, he still tossed three scoreless innings.

Then there’s Rich Hill. First drafted out of high school in a different millennium, Hill debuted with the Cubs in 2005 at age 25. Over the next decade, he bounced around the league, often struggling with elbow injuries and poor command. At the end of 2014, Hill was a 34-year-old who had played for six different teams, only completing 100 frames in a season once. After opting out of a minor league deal with the Nationals in the middle of the 2015 season, Hill ran out of offers with affiliated clubs. He signed with the independent Long Island Ducks and laid waste to his Atlantic League competition… for two starts. Hill was then tendered a big league contract with his hometown team, the Red Sox, had four excellent starts to close out the season, and has held down a big league roster spot ever since. Hill will begin the upcoming spring training by celebrating his 43rd birthday, making him the oldest major league player since the then 45-year-old Ichiro Suzuki last suited up in 2019. The Pirates will be his 12th team, making him one of just six players to appear for a dozen or more clubs.

When a slightly younger Hill signed with the Red Sox (for the seventh time in his career), Ben Clemens used the prophetic projection system RiPS (Rich is Pitching Superlatively) to forecast a 4.15 ERA and 1.7 WAR for his 2022 season. Hill’s actual numbers? A 4.27 ERA (but a 4.13 SIERA), and 1.8 WAR. Not bad, RiPS. But it gets even better. Ben wrote, “If he pitches to this line, he’ll earn $8 million next year and be well worth it for Boston.” In 2023, the Pirates will be paying Hill (checks notes) $8 million on the dot. Can we get some RiPS projected standings for the season? They might even turn out to be more accurate than the baseball Reddit’s marble race simulations. Read the rest of this entry »

When I was assigned to write about Nathan Eovaldi’s eventual free agent signing — this prior to the Winter Meetings — my best guess was that he’d be returning to his baseball home for each of the last four-plus seasons. Boston had been a good fit for the 32-year-old right-hander, and the Chaim Bloom-run club needed him more than he needed them. Given the uncertainty of their rotation — not to mention increasing pressure to spend like a contender, not a small-market pretender — the Red Sox bringing back Eovaldi would have made all the sense in the world.

That didn’t happen. Last week, the Texas Rangers, a team that actually has been spending like a contender, inked the no. 15 player on our Top 50 free agent rankings to a two-year, $34 million contract. It was their third ambitious signing of the winter. Earlier in the offseason, Chris Young and Co. jumpstarted the starting rotation by signing Jacob deGrom to a five-year, $185 million deal and Andrew Heaney to a two-year, $25 million pact. The cumulative $244 million expenditure was based on need. Lacking front-of-the-rotation quality, Texas finished fourth from the bottom among American League clubs in starting pitcher WAR last year.

The trio of newcomers join a rotation that includes Jon Gray and Martín Pérez (back with the club after accepting Texas’ qualifying offer), with Dane Dunning, Jake Odorizzi (acquired in trade from the Braves in November), and Glenn Otto serving as solid backup options. Thanks to the additions, this is one of the deepest — and potentially among the most productive — starting staffs in either league. Read the rest of this entry »

Tyler Black could follow in his father’s footsteps, but that’s not the path he’s pursuing. What the 22-year-old Toronto native wants to do is to play in the big leagues — a goal that is very much within his reach. Drafted 33rd overall in 2019 out of Wright State University, Black is an on-base machine who ranks No. 12 on our recently-released Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospects list.

The road not being taken is related to the youngster’s dream. His father is former TSN and CTV broadcaster Rod Black, whose three-plus decades behind the microphone had him calling games in a variety of sports, including baseball (one of his on-air partners was World Series hero Joe Carter). I asked the infielder/outfielder if he ever envisions himself describing the action on a diamond, court, or even a sheet of ice.

“Maybe when I’m done playing,” Black told me during his stint in the Arizona Fall League. “I’ve never really thought about it seriously, but I can say that it was definitely great growing up around sports. My dad used to announce Blue Jays games, Toronto Raptors games — pretty much everything — so I was always around ballparks, and around athletes. That kind of put me into the game.”

Legendary Blue Jays broadcaster Jerry Howarth, who was alongside Tom Cheek when the latter emoted “Touch ’Em All Joe!” — a moment that will forever live in Canadian baseball lore — is among those who reached out after Rod Black’s son was drafted by the Brewers. Read the rest of this entry »

In 2022, I once again had an opportunity to interview numerous people within the game. Many of their words were shared in my Sunday Notes column, while others came via an assortment of Q&As, feature stories, and the Talks Hitting series. Here is a selection of the best quotes from this year’s conversations, with the bolded lines linking to the pieces they were excerpted from.

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“I’d say Mike Trout is underrated. For one, he’s coming off an injury. Two, he’s playing with a two-way player who everybody goo-goo and ga-gas about. I’ll say this about Clayton Kershaw as well: When you do it for so long, people kind of get bored. It just becomes ho-hum.” — Dallas Keuchel, Chicago White Sox pitcher

“It was like, ‘Oh, this guy isn’t going to turn into a pumpkin. He’s real. There’s substance to this, he’s not just this novelty act with the shimmy and the shake, and the drop down.’ There are objective measures that say this guy is a high-level starter. Now it’s, ‘OK, how do we continue to build on that?’” — Matt Blake, New York Yankees pitching coach

“It’s part of what led us to George Kirby. He had very good stuff on draft day that turned into elite stuff once he got into our system… We feel like we can take good stuff and turn it into great stuff. We feel like we can take average stuff and turn it into plus stuff. It’s hard to look at a pitcher who only has stuff and say we’re going to make him into ‘a guy.’” — Jerry Dipoto, Seattle Mariners President of Baseball Operations Read the rest of this entry »