I used to have a bit that one of the joys of the postseason was watching the wider baseball-watching public discover a previously unknown Rays pitcher when he mowed down the Astros in the first nationally televised game of his career.

It’s a little harder to pull that off as a position player: Go from complete unknown to key regular on a playoff team. In fact, a lot of the most important position players in this pennant race — Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, Manny Machado — were names before they even joined their current teams.

On the other hand, you’d be forgiven for not knowing Isaac Collins. Read the rest of this entry »

How likely do you think the Reds are to make the playoffs? I’m not asking you to guess what our Playoff Odds say about them. I’ll tell you that in the next paragraph. I’m asking you to put your own number on it, based on what you know and think about both the Reds and the playoff picture. They are 59-54 with 49 games to play. They’re three games back of the Padres for the final Wild Card spot and four behind the Mets for the second spot. Got a number in your head? Then we’re ready for another paragraph.

Thank you for playing. As of this writing, our Playoff Odds give the Reds a 12.4% chance of reaching the postseason. I imagine that feels a little light to at least some people. Baseball Reference gives the Reds a 36.3% chance of making the playoffs. They’re within four games of both the Mets and the Padres. They’re also within five games of the Phillies, the first-place team in the NL East. If the Reds keep playing like they’re playing and any one of those teams has a late-season swoon, they’re in. According to Pythagorean Win-Loss expectancy, they should have the same record as the Mets right now and a better record than the Padres. They just added at the deadline. Hunter Greene looks like he’ll be back soon, and Elly De La Cruz sure looks like the kind of player who can put a team on his back for a couple weeks and carry it over the finish line.

Then again, I’m sure that number feels high to some people. You can understand why the numbers don’t like the Reds. Baseball Reference gives them such a high chance because it ignores roster composition, and, well, the Reds have a weaker roster than the teams ahead of them. They rank 22nd in position player WAR, and they didn’t add as much at the deadline as the Phillies, Mets, or Padres. In fact, according to ZiPS, they actually became 3.2% less likely to make the playoffs when the deadline dust settled, because of doubts about Ke’Bryan Hayes and presumably because the other teams added so much more. They’ve had the fifth-easiest schedule in baseball to this point in the season, and they’ve got the toughest schedule in baseball from here on out. They’ve overperformed their xwOBA by six points, the second-highest such gap in baseball. Not only do our projections have the Reds missing the playoffs, they have them finishing at 82-80, one game above .500 for the season and seven games behind the Padres in the standings. Read the rest of this entry »

Four years ago, Garrett Whitlock’s emergence as an elite major league reliever was one of my favorite stories in baseball. How could it not be? He was a Red Sox Rule 5 pick who had been on the Yankees. It doesn’t get much better than that. He was a dominant multi-inning reliever right from the jump, with a 1.96 ERA over 73 1/3 innings pitched and excellent peripheral statistics across the board.

The years since then haven’t been so halcyon. He followed up his breakout with another good year of relieving, but a foray into starting went only OK. Whitlock started 2023 season in the rotation but pitched poorly, hit the IL three times, and ended the year as a mid-leverage bullpen arm. Then he tried the rotation again in 2024, but hurt his elbow after four starts and had internal brace surgery. All told, those three seasons came with a 4.01 ERA, a 3.71 FIP, and not a ton of volume.

That internal brace surgery brings us to this year. Internal brace procedures come with faster turnaround times than full Tommy John surgery, and Whitlock was ready for Opening Day. He started the season as a middle reliever and mopup man, entering in the fifth, fourth, and eighth (down four runs) for two innings apiece in his first three appearances. He didn’t look immediately restored, but who would? After he acclimated to the majors again, though, his command snapped back to its prior superb level, his secondaries improved, and he’s been nothing short of outstanding. Welcome to Garrett Whitlock’s second act. Read the rest of this entry »

Kyle Karros has quietly emerged as one of the most promising prospects in the Colorado Rockies system. Since being drafted in the fifth round two years ago out of UCLA, the 23-year-old third baseman has slashed .303/.393/.455 with a 134 wRC+ over 1,000 plate appearances. His numbers this season are in that same ballpark. Over 305 plate appearances, the bulk of them with the Double-A Hartford Yard Goats — he was promoted to the Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes on July 18 — Karros is slashing .297/.398/.463 with a 142 wRC+.

As our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen wrote back in January, the son of former Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Eric Karros “needs to develop power.” The progeny’s right-handed stroke produced 15 home runs a year ago, and this season he has left the yard six times. Given his 6-foot-5, 220-pound frame, there is a pretty good chance that he will tap into his power with more experience. Longenhagen recently updated Karros to a 40 FV prospect while ranking him 14th in the Rockies system.

On the eve of his becoming an Isotope, Karros discussed his approach to hitting, as well as his baseball relationship with his father.

———

David Laurila: How would you define yourself as a hitter?

Kyle Karros: “I’ve really bought into being a complete hitter first, and allowing power to just come naturally. I’ve kind of always put an emphasis on not chasing homers. Doubles are my game. I also feel like you grow into home runs. You learn what counts you can take advantage of. You get more efficient with your swing. But right now — this year, especially — I’ve bought into really controlling the zone. I think what allows me to do that is having a right-center type of approach. That allows me to let the ball travel a little deeper. If I’m on a fastball to right-center, that puts me on offspeed where I’m able to pull and elevate.”

Laurila: Is letting the ball travel more new to this year? Read the rest of this entry »

Tyler Glasnow was 21 years old and full of promise as he sat atop our 2015 Pittsburgh Pirates Top Prospects list when it was published in January of that year. Our then-lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel gave plus grades to both Glasnow’s heater and his hook, opining that the tall right-hander had no. 2 starter potential.

Despite an injury history that includes Tommy John surgery, Glasnow has largely lived up to expectations. Drafted 152nd overall in 2011 out of William S. Hart High School in Santa Clarita, California, he was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays in July 2018 (a deadline deal Pirates fans would love to forget) and logged a 3.20 ERA and 3.10 FIP over 71 starts in his five-plus seasons there. Subsequently swapped to the Los Angeles Dodgers in December 2023, Glasnow has a 3.47 ERA and a 3.28 FIP over 31 starts with his current club. He is top-of-the-rotation quality when fully fit, but he has had trouble staying healthy. Just this season, he was out from late April until early July with shoulder inflammation.

What did Glasnow’s 2015 FanGraphs scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think about it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what McDaniel wrote and asked Glasnow to respond to it.

———

“Glasnow was drafted in the fifth round out of high school in 2011 as a low-profile pure-projection bet with fringy-to-average stuff and a limited track record.”

“That’s probably pretty accurate,” Glasnow replied. “I was fifth round, just more projectable, and throwing 89-91 [mph]. I had a decent curveball, but it wasn’t very good yet. My stuff was decent for high school, but compared to pro ball, not really. I was lower velo, mostly just two pitches, and I had a very bad changeup.”

“He blew up in 2013, dominating Low-A with a fastball that hit 97 mph. He continued his progress at High-A in 2014, sitting 93-96 mph and hitting 98 mph.” Read the rest of this entry »

As expected, the Yankees were among the contending teams active ahead of the July 31 trade deadline and in the days leading up to it. They filled a big hole at third base and a smaller one in their outfield, shuffled utility infielders, and restocked their bullpen as well, though the fortified unit did not get off to a flying start. But one thing they did not do was add a starting pitcher. Instead, as they worked to fit the newcomers onto their roster in the aftermath of the deadline, they chose to cut loose starter Marcus Stroman, ending the 34-year-old righty’s disappointing season-and-a-half run with the team. By doing so, they’re betting big on the live arms behind Max Fried and Carlos Rodón.

In 38 starts and one relief appearance totaling 193 2/3 innings since the start of 2024 — numbers suppressed by his 11-week stay on the injured list this season due to left knee inflammation — Stroman managed just a 4.69 ERA, a 4.73 FIP, and 1.0 WAR. Among pitchers with at least 180 inning in that span, only Logan Allen, Kyle Gibson, and Randy Vásquez produced less value. In 39 innings this year, Stroman was lit for a 6.23 ERA and 5.15 FIP while making just one quality start out of nine.

Stroman was squeezed out of New York’s five-man rotation by the return of Luis Gil. The 27-year-old righty, who won AL Rookie of the Year honors last season, suffered a high-grade lat strain in late February, before he’d even pitched in an exhibition game. Gil began a rehab assignment on July 13, making the first of two starts for Double-A Somerset before adding two more with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, and maxing out at 4 1/3 innings and 75 pitches. He made his season debut for the Yankees on Sunday, and it was a rough one. Facing a Marlins team that has been playing very good baseball lately by going 30-22 since the start of June, Gil struggled with his command, walking four and yielding five hits while striking out three in 3 1/3 innings. He was charged with five runs, the last two of which scored after reliever Brent Headrick served up a three-run homer to Kyle Stowers. Read the rest of this entry »

You’re probably pretty good at baseball if you end up on this list:

I get it. “Doing damage when you elevate the ball” isn’t the only skill that’s necessary to be a good major league hitter. It’s not even close to the only necessary skill. On the other hand, look at that list! It goes 10 hitters deep, and they’re all great. The worst guy on that list is probably Christian Yelich, and he’s having a nice year despite dealing with his chronic case of can’t-ever-get-the-ball-off-the-ground-itis.

Psh! Who cares about wOBA? What even is wOBA? First of all, good news, here’s an article explaining it in great detail. Second, fine, let’s use a different statistic then. Here’s slugging percentage, same minimum of 100 batted balls:

Read the rest of this entry »

When the Red Sox acquired Dustin May from the Dodgers at Thursday’s trade deadline, they brought on board a starter with a pair of elbow surgeries in his rearview. The 27-year-old right-hander had Tommy John in 2021, then needed to have a flexor tendon repaired in 2023. Boston also brought on board a pitcher who has matured admirably since he was drafted 101st overall in 2016 out of a Justin, Texas high school.

“As a pitcher, I haven’t changed a whole lot,” May told me prior to the trade. “My stuff is pretty comparable to what it was before. But off the field, I’ve changed a lot. A lot of life changes have happened through the surgeries — a lot of good things — and I feel like I’ve definitely improved as a person and as a husband.

“We’re all very blessed, and talented, to be here,” he added. “Stuff can be taken away from you in an instant, and you can have no control over it. No matter how hard you work, or what you put into it, life can come at you very fast at times.”

A serious health scare last summer is an example. May suffered a torn esophagus that required emergency surgery. Less scary, but nonetheless troublesome, was his not bouncing back from TJ as well as he’d hoped. Read the rest of this entry »

Though many predicted heading into the 2025 season that the Orioles’ weak starting rotation and general inactivity over the offseason would come back to haunt them, even Baltimore’s biggest skeptics weren’t prognosticating that the team would sit well under .500 and 7.5 games out of playoff position at the end of July. Such as it is, the Orioles spent this year’s trade deadline turning over roughly a third of their roster. Over the last week or so, the O’s have traded relievers Gregory Soto, Seranthony Domínguez, and Andrew Kittredge, along with infielders Ryan O’Hearn and Ramón Urías. Then on Thursday afternoon, Anthony DiComo reported that Cedric Mullins was on his way to the Mets; a few hours later, Jeff Passan broke the news that Charlie Morton would be joining the Tigers. The only healthy pending free agent who wasn’t traded out of Baltimore is Tomoyuki Sugano, and with Zach Eflin hitting the IL mere hours before the deadline, Sugano is now a load-bearing member of the rotation. Read the rest of this entry »

And so ends another action-packed trade deadline. It came in with a whimper, with a quiet Adam Frazier trade to the Royals, but it ended in an exciting crescendo during which seemingly every reliever in baseball moved to a new team in a 45-minute period. Whoever said comparison is the thief of joy had never heard of the ZiPS projections, here to distill that bullpen beauty pageant (and the rest of deadline period’s action) into some cold hard numbers estimating what all these moves actually mean in the big picture.

Deciding who “won” or “lost” the trade deadline is a fairly tricky philosophical question, since different teams come into deadline day with different goals. So instead, I’ll focus on a simpler question: Who helped their 2025 chances the most? That’s a more straightforward inquiry, one a projection system can assess. For this, I used my usual methodology, first projecting the league as it currently stands using the full-fat ZiPS projections, and then re-projecting the league as it stands, but having unwound every transaction made since the Frazier trade on July 16. Read the rest of this entry »